Trump Close to Announcing Fed Chair Position
ASGA CEO Luther Markwart to retire | USMCA review | Some problems in past MFP payouts | Silver, gold surges | GT Thompson to introduce year-round migrant ag workforce bill
Link: The Week Ahead, Nov. 30: Rollins to Unveil Farmer Aid Details This Week
Link: Why the Big Four Meatpackers Keep Their Grip — And Why Trump’s
New Crackdown Won’t Break the Mold
Link: Weekend Updates, Nov 29: Spain Confronts Swine Fever Cases,
Raising Export Risks
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 28
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 28
Today’s Updates:
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Hassett signals markets are braced for Trump’s Fed chair pick
— Equities today: Global equities slipped
— Global markets brace for RBI cut as Asia’s slowdown deepens
— Silver blasts through record highs as supply squeeze and Fed expectations intensify
— Gold rebounds after CME outage roils futures trading
AG MARKETS
— Spain’s swine fever outbreak deepens
— European farmers face ‘real crisis’ as commodity prices tumble
— Australia expands grain-fed beef exports as U.S. output tightens
USDA ERS REPORTS
— USDA’s ERS still hasn’t updated its post-shutdown release calendar — here’s why
PERSONNEL
— ASGA CEO Luther Markwart to retire after more than four decades of leadership
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Monday: Oil prices climb after OPEC+ affirms output plan & CPC halt tightens supply
— Treasury may issue partial 45Z guidance this month despite earlier delays
TRADE POLICY
— Brazil races to reverse more U.S. tariff hikes
CHINA
— China factory activity contracts for eighth straight month
CONGRESS
— Congress faces 13- to 15-day sprint as health care, funding, & defense fights collide
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Tennessee special election: A deep-red warning sign
FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY
— States brace for SNAP disruptions as AGs sue Trump administration over
immigrant eligibility rule
BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR
— GT Thompson weighs legislation to expand year-round migrant ag workforce
TRANSPORTATION / LOGISTICS
— Red Sea reopening set to reshape global shipping in 2026
TRADE (NORTH AMERICA)
— USMCA review looms as ag leaders urge trilateral unity amid tariff turbulence
FARM PROGRAMS / GAO OVERSIGHT
— Remember? GAO found nearly $800 million in prior MFP payments were improper
as auditors also faulted USDA’s damage calculations
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Wintry mix from the Mid-South to Ohio Valley; first major
Northeast storm developing
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Dec. 1, 2025
| UP FRONT — Treasury may issue partial 45Z guidance this month despite earlier delaysTreasury is considering narrow, 2025-only guidance for the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) before year-end, giving producers basic rules for next year’s tax filings while full multi-year regulations are pushed into 2026. —ASGA CEO Luther Markwart to retire after more than four decades of leadershipThe American Sugarbeet Growers Association announced CEO Luther Markwart will retire at the end of 2026 after 44 years, concluding one of the most influential leadership tenures in U.S. agriculture as the board begins its search for a successor.—Hassett signals markets are braced for Trump’s Fed chair pick Markets respond positively as Kevin Hassett downplays frontrunner talk; bond yields fall on expectations of a more dovish Trump-aligned Fed pick.— USMCA review looms as ag leaders urge trilateral unity amid tariff turbulence Mexican and Canadian officials stress keeping USMCA intact ahead of a complex 2026 review, urging agriculture to anchor a stable three-country framework.— Remember? GAO found nearly $800 million in prior MFP payments were improper GAO audits flagged major documentation failures and overstated tariff-damage formulas in the 2018–19 MFP, fueling renewed scrutiny of payment accuracy.— Equities today Global stocks dipped after November’s rally, with U.S. futures pointing lower despite intact expectations for Fed rate cuts.— Global markets brace for RBI cut as Asia’s slowdown deepens India’s expected rate cut anchors a heavy Asian data week; U.S./Europe signals show soft hiring, cooling consumers, and restrained year-end growth.— Silver blasts through record highs as supply squeeze and Fed expectations intensify Silver sets fresh records above $56/oz as inventories plunge, China exports surge, and markets price in aggressive U.S. rate cuts.— Gold rebounds after CME outage roils futures trading A CME technical shutdown disrupts futures trading, but gold extends gains on strong demand and dovish Fed expectations.— Spain’s swine fever outbreak deepens New suspected ASF cases near Barcelona threaten Spain’s €8.8B pork sector as key export markets shut their doors.— European farmers face ‘real crisis’ as commodity prices tumble Wheat, sugar, and other crop prices fall sharply while input costs stay high, pushing many EU farmers toward losses and consolidation.— Australia expands grain-fed beef exports as U.S. output tightens Record feedlot use boosts Australia’s grain-fed beef shipments to Asia as U.S. beef supplies contract.— USDA’s ERS still hasn’t updated its post-shutdown release calendar — here’s why ERS remains unable to reset its schedule due to deeper data disruptions, staffing constraints, and dependence on upstream economic inputs.— Monday: Oil prices climbed after OPEC+ reaffirmed output plans Crude rises as OPEC+ holds production steady and pipeline disruptions heighten supply concerns.— Brazil races to reverse more U.S. tariff hikes Brazil accelerates talks with Washington to roll back 40–50% tariffs on key industrial exports; Alckmin says both sides stand to benefit.— China factory activity contracts for eighth straight month PMI remains below 50 as weak demand, price competition, and fragile exports keep factories under pressure.— Congress faces a 13- to 15-day sprint as health care, funding, and defense fights collide ACA subsidies, government funding, and NDAA disputes dominate a chaotic December with deep GOP fractures and shifting White House signals.— Tennessee special election: A deep-red warning sign A GOP-held district has unexpectedly tightened, reinforcing fears that Republicans could lose the House before 2026.— States brace for SNAP disruptions as AGs sue Trump administration States face conflicting federal guidance over immigrant eligibility rules, fearing both penalties and loss of food access for vulnerable families.— Red Sea reopening set to reshape global shipping in 2026 ING Economics says a return to the Suez route will cause short-term congestion but later trigger a major collapse in container-shipping rates.— GT Thompson weighs legislation to expand year-round migrant ag workforce House Ag Chair GT Thompson prepares a bill to give dairy, livestock, and mushroom farms legal access to year-round migrant labor.— NWS outlook Wintry mix spreads across the central/eastern U.S., with New England’s first major winter storm expected Monday–Tuesday. TOP STORIES — Treasury may issue partial 45Z guidance this month despite earlier delaysWithdrawal of draft rule, shutdown fallout, and OBBBA changes had pushed expectations into 2026 — but industry sources now see limited 2025-only guidance coming before year-end The Treasury Department’s handling of the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) has taken an unexpected turn. After withdrawing its draft 45Z rule from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in late November — a move that reinforced expectations that final regulations would not arrive until well into 2026 — industry sources now believe Treasury may release partial, 2025-only guidance before the end of December. The November withdrawal reflected months of disruption: the fall government shutdown halted regulatory work, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) significantly rewrote key elements of 45Z, forcing Treasury and the IRS to overhaul emissions-intensity modeling, feedstock treatment, and credit-calculation rules. Until recently, most stakeholders assumed the administration would need additional time to develop a comprehensive regulatory framework. But in the past week, industry sources say Treasury appears to be preparing limited final guidance covering only the 2025 tax year. The shift is driven by a simple technical reality: unlike compliance programs such as the Renewable Fuel Standard — where the government can extend a compliance year — 45Z is tied directly to the tax year. Treasury must clarify eligibility rules before Jan. 1 so producers know what credits they can claim for their 2025 filings. Any year-end release is expected to be narrow, focused solely on establishing the minimum parameters needed for taxpayers to calculate 2025 emissions-intensity scores and determine credit values. Full, multi-year regulations governing 45Z — including lifecycle analysis methodologies, updated pathway rules, and long-term implementation details — are still expected sometime in 2026. For now, Treasury has offered no public confirmation that December guidance is coming, and nothing has appeared on IRS or OMB calendars. Still, the rapidly evolving expectations reflect mounting pressure from ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel producers who need clarity before the tax credit’s January 1 start. If issued, the limited guidance would represent a pragmatic stopgap: enough detail for businesses to file 2025 taxes, while allowing Treasury more time next year to finalize the sweeping regulatory framework required under the revised law.—ASGA CEO Luther Markwart to retire after more than four decades of leadershipBoard launches search for successor as sugarbeet industry prepares for transition The American Sugarbeet Growers Association (ASGA) announced today that longtime Executive Vice President and CEO Luther Markwart will retire on Dec. 31, 2026, concluding one of the longest and most influential leadership tenures in modern U.S. agriculture. Quote of note: “Sugarbeet growers across our nation have enjoyed the benefits of Luther’s leadership for over four decades,” said ASGA President Neil Rockstad, a grower from Ada, Minnesota. “He has been a consummate professional… He will leave behind a legacy of dedicated servant-leadership.” Markwart will retire after 44 years as the Association’s chief executive, besides three years spent representing Michigan and Ohio growers. ASGA — celebrating its 50th anniversary this year — was first united under his leadership, and he became the inaugural CEO of the fully consolidated domestic beet sugar organization. During his career, Markwart played a central role in shaping sugar policy, international trade negotiations, biotechnology debates, litigation, and industry public-relations strategy. He trained generations of grower-leaders and helped position family farms for long-term viability. “I have been truly blessed to have worked with some of the finest grower leaders in American agriculture,” Markwart said. “It is a distinct honor to promote and defend the American farm families… This work will continue as American sugar producers and our national food security remain under threat by the predatory practices of foreign competitors.” ASGA’s board has been coordinating with Markwart for more than a year to ensure a smooth transition. The search committee will formally open the CEO position on Jan. 1, 2026, with applications handled confidentially by the Association’s legal counsel, Bruce Kleven. Comments: Luther helped “train” a lot of reporters, including me, about complex sugar policy. He always made sure your questions were answered and he knew what to ask: “What’s your deadline?” A true gentleman.—Hassett signals markets are braced for Trump’s Fed chair pickNEC director argues investor reaction shows confidence in Trump’s nearing choice — even as he downplays reports he’s the frontrunner White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Sunday that financial markets are already responding positively to signals that President Trump may announce his Federal Reserve chair nominee before year-end — remarks that amount to an implicit defense of his own potential candidacy. In a CBS Face the Nation interview, Hassett brushed aside Bloomberg reporting that he is the leading contender to replace Jerome Powell, calling it mere “rumor.” But he pointed directly to lower Treasury yields and a strong auction last week as evidence that investors are comfortable with the direction of Trump’s selection process — including speculation about him. “We had a great Treasury auction, interest rates went down,” Hassett said, adding that Americans should expect Trump to choose someone committed to “cheaper car loans” and “easier access to mortgages at lower rate.” The positive market reaction to reports about him, he suggested, demonstrated confidence rather than concern about politicizing the Fed. Trump, whose frustration with Powell has intensified even as the Fed begins gradual rate cuts, is seeking a chair who will more aggressively push for lower rates. Hassett is viewed by Trump as aligned on that goal, according to people familiar with the process. The possibility of Hassett’s nomination briefly pushed the 10-year Treasury yield below 4% — a sign the bond market was pricing in a more dovish Fed under his leadership. Still, analysts caution that Hassett could face challenges uniting the Federal Open Market Committee and resisting presidential pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, managing the search, has said Trump could announce his nominee before Christmas. Other finalists include Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. Trump has also floated Bessent himself, an idea the Treasury chief continues to dismiss. Of note: “I know who I am going to pick, yeah,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on his way back to Washington on Sunday, without naming his choice. “We’ll be announcing it.” Whoever Trump chooses will need Senate confirmation and, if drawn from outside the current board, would begin a new 14-year governor term starting in February. Powell’s term as chair ends in May. —USMCA review looms as ag leaders urge trilateral unity amid tariff turbulenceMexican and Canadian officials tell USMEF the pact remains essential despite U.S./Mexico tensions, stressing that agriculture depends on preserving a stable three-country framework At the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) Planning Conference in Indianapolis, two key North American agricultural voices — Mexican USMCA negotiator Kenneth Smith Ramos and John Masswohl of the Canadian Cattle Association — offered a forward-looking assessment of the upcoming USMCA review and the agreement’s durability. Ramos acknowledged “turbulence” in U.S./Mexico relations, driven largely by recent U.S. tariffs. He expects the 2026 USMCA review to be complex but not existential, emphasizing that “we do not see the plane crashing.” He urged agricultural sectors in all three countries to remain aligned, stressing the importance of keeping the pact trilateral, cooperating on China-related trade concerns, and working jointly to dismantle barriers. Masswohl highlighted the deep integration of U.S./Canada agriculture, noting that Canadians consume more than $700 per person in U.S. agricultural products annually — far more than the roughly $100 per American in Canadian goods. He said this demonstrates Canada’s openness and the strong U.S. competitive position in high-value food products. While some back-and-forth ingredient trade is embedded in the numbers, he stressed that the exchange is mutually beneficial, supporting supply chains on both sides. The message from both: despite tariff frictions and the political complexities of the coming review, USMCA remains essential, and agriculture must be a stabilizing force pushing governments to maintain the agreement’s structure and continuity. Link to a backgrounder on USTR hearings this week on the USMCA. —Remember? GAO found nearly $800 million in prior MFP payments were improper as auditors also faulted USDA’s damage calculationsWatchdog found eligibility lapses, missing documentation, and flawed trade-impact methodology behind key 2018–19 farm-aid decisions The Government Accountability Office’s (GAO) multi-year review of the Trump administration’s 2018–2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP) found two major weaknesses: significant improper payments and methodological flaws in how USDA calculated the very tariff impacts that underpinned the program’s payment rates. Improper payments: nearly $800 million in aid went to ineligible or unsupported claims Details: In its 2022 audit, GAO’s Business Center estimated that $477.6 million of 2018 MFP payments and about $308 million of 2019 payments were “improper,” meaning they either went to ineligible recipients or were issued without required documentation. Combined, that amounts to approximately $785.6 million, commonly rounded to “about $800 million” — a figure echoed in contemporaneous reporting. Auditors flagged a series of administrative and eligibility failures across county offices:• Payments lacking production evidence or other required support.• Missing or incomplete forms in payment files.• Payments issued without proper approval or sign-off.• Payments to farms exceeding the program’s $900,000 AGI cap — or farms failing to document that at least 75% of their income came from farming, which could exempt them from the limit. Individually, many of these failures reflected documentation gaps rather than intentional fraud. But in the aggregate, GAO concluded that the scale of unsupported or improper payments was substantial and warranted stronger oversight controls. GAO’s second finding: USDA’s tariff-damage calculations overstated losses. In a separate report, “Stronger Adherence to Quality Guidelines Would Improve Future Economic Analyses,” GAO evaluated USDA’s methodology for estimating tariff-induced “trade damages” — the formulaic backbone of both the 2018 and 2019 MFP payment rates. GAO found that USDA used an “inappropriately high” export baseline when calculating 2019 trade damages. Instead of using a representative multi-year average, USDA selected the single highest export value in the 2009–2018 period. That choice inflated the damage estimates, which in turn inflated producer payments above likely actual tariff losses. USDA’s inflated baseline translated into trade-damage estimates that exceeded USDA’s own damage models for certain crops — corn being the most frequently cited example. In practice, total 2019 payments for several commodities were higher than the department’s estimated economic losses. GAO stopped short of declaring all such payments excessive, noting that ex-post measurement of tariff losses is inherently complex. But the watchdog was unequivocal that the methodology created a structural bias toward overpayment. Two problems, two types of risk. Together, GAO’s findings validate both elements of the claim: The around $800 million in “improper payments” were tied to administrative failures — missing documentation, AGI-cap violations, or incomplete files. The flawed tariff-damage methodology represented a design flaw, not an oversight lapse — one that systematically pushed 2019 payments higher than warranted. GAO emphasized that the two issues are distinct: improper payments arise from how rules were implemented at the county level, while methodological flaws stemmed from Washington-level decisions about how to quantify trade harm. Big picture: MFP achieved scale, but not consistency. Together, the findings underscore a broader theme in the agricultural safety net during the tariff-war era. While MFP delivered unprecedented support quickly, its administrative controls and economic modeling foundations were not always equally strong. Bottom Line: That combination — rapid deployment, complex eligibility rules, and a novel economic formula — helped fuel payment outcomes that diverged from actual tariff harm, contributing to regional disparities and ongoing debate in Congress about how trade-related aid should be structured in future tariff episodes. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global equities slipped on Monday, giving back some of November’s strong gains as a wave of risk aversion moved through markets — even though investors’ expectations for U.S. rate cuts remained largely unchanged. U.S. stock futures pointed lower in early trading.
—Global markets brace for RBI Cut as Asia’s slowdown deepens
India’s expected rate move anchors a data-heavy week across Asia, while U.S. and European indicators point to cooling consumers and cautious year-end growth
Global markets begin the week with attention firmly on India, where the Reserve Bank is widely expected to trim rates by 25 basis points after months on hold. The anticipated move reflects cooling growth, easing inflation, and pressure from weakening exports — strain that has intensified as U.S. tariffs weigh on Indian shipments. Across the Asia-Pacific region, PMI readings continue to flag uneven or contracting activity, with only India and Singapore maintaining clear momentum. A slate of GDP, spending, trade, and inflation releases from Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan will offer a sharper view of how deeply the regional slowdown is taking hold.
In the United States, the data calendar remains disrupted by earlier reporting delays, and the Federal Reserve has now entered its communications blackout ahead of the Dec. 9–10 policy meeting. Markets are watching Black Friday and early holiday spending data for signals of consumer strength following steep October discounting. Labor indicators — including ADP’s modest 20,000-job forecast and ongoing Challenger layoff announcements — continue to point to soft hiring and AI-driven restructuring. Europe and Canada round out the global landscape with flat PMI readings, sticky inflation, and softening labor markets, underscoring a broader pattern of cautious, low-momentum growth into year-end.
—Silver blasts through record highs as supply squeeze and fed expectations intensify
Inventories plunge, China exports surge, and markets price in aggressive rate-cut cycle amid Hassett’s rise as Fed-chair front-runner
Silver’s historic rally accelerated last week, vaulting above $56 per ounce as tightening physical supply and shifting U.S. monetary expectations fueled a fresh wave of buying. Chinese inventories have fallen to their lowest levels in 10 years, following heavy shipments to London that underscore an intensifying supply squeeze. At the same time, China’s October silver exports hit a record 660+ tonnes, reflecting strong global demand and dwindling domestic stocks.
Silver’s new high comes just over a month after a severe supply squeeze in the dominant silver trading hub in London last month, which sent prices soaring above levels in Shanghai and New York. While the arrival of nearly 54 million troy ounces has eased that squeeze, the market remains markedly tight with the cost of borrowing the metal over one month hovering above its normal level, Bloomberg notes.
Markets now assign an around 85% probability of a third Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with three more cuts expected through 2026. Rate-cut bets strengthened further after reports that White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair — a move investors see as consistent with President Donald Trump’s push for lower interest rates.
Since early October, silver has repeatedly tested new highs, supported by global economic uncertainty, expectations of looser monetary policy, and increasingly tight physical supply conditions.
—Gold rebounds after CME outage roils futures trading
Technical glitch forces traders into “old-school” hedging as bullion extends gains on Fed-cut expectations and strong global demand
Gold swung through a turbulent session Friday after a technical outage on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange halted futures and options trading on Comex, disrupting a key pillar of bullion price discovery. The shutdown — lasting hours before CME gradually restored operations — left traders without live futures pricing and forced many to hedge exposures by phone as spreads briefly widened and liquidity thinned.
With futures dark, spot gold whipsawed and bid-ask spreads briefly surged, underscoring how tightly the two markets are linked.
Still, bullion remained up about 3% for the week and saw a fourth straight monthly gain, supported by dovish Fed commentary and the release of postponed economic data.
Of note: Gold has gained nearly every month in 2025 and is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, powered by central bank buying, strong ETF inflows, and a broad investor rotation out of government bonds and currencies.
| AG MARKETS |
—U.S. upland cotton only major sales activity for China in week ending Oct. 23. USDA continues to release delayed weekly Export Sales updates, with data for the week ending Oct. 23 including net sales of 13,273 running bales of upland cotton for 2025/26 and net sales of 22,046 running bales for 2026/27. There were also net sales of 961 metric tons of pork reported for 2025.
—Spain’s swine fever outbreak deepens
New suspected cases intensify export fallout as global buyers shut doors
Spain’s African swine fever crisis widened over the weekend, with La Vanguardia reporting eight additional suspected cases in wild boar near Barcelona — potentially bringing the total to 14 infections if testing confirms all suspected animals. With export certificates already blocked for roughly one-third of Spain’s global pork shipments, the Catalan government has requested military assistance to contain the outbreak as key foreign markets — including Taiwan, China, Britain, and Mexico — move swiftly to halt imports. Agriculture Minister Luis Planas warned that the €8.8 billion pork sector — roughly $10.2 billion —is now fighting to keep international markets open amid Spain’s first ASF outbreak since 1994.
—European farmers face ‘real crisis’ as agricultural commodity prices tumble
Financial Times says ag sector contends with sharp drop in price of wheat and sugar and rising input costs
What’s happening: prices collapse, costs stay high. Wheat futures in Paris have fallen more than 20 % this year, reaching multiyear lows, dragged down by bumper harvests in Russia, Australia, and parts of South America.
At the same time, input costs — for fertilizer, fuel, machinery — remain elevated, largely because inflation and energy-cost pressures from recent years haven’t eased much.
For many farmers in Britain and across Europe, this means producing at a loss. As one UK grower put it: “we’re drilling… in the knowledge that we’re not going to make any money from it.”
Sugar beet sector also reeling. In parts of Europe — notably France — sugar-beet growers are “cultivating below cost,” as ex-works sugar prices have dropped dramatically (EU sugar prices recently fell more than a third since last summer to about €536/tonne — $535 per U.S. short ton).
The drop is worsened by competition from cheaper imports (e.g., cane sugar from countries like Brazil or India), where regulatory and environmental costs are lower.
Some processors and growers are already cutting back: factory closures, calls to reduce planted area, and even renegotiating or dropping contracts are being reported.
Structural shifts — consolidation, fewer farms, uncertain future. The squeeze on margins is triggering consolidation: some farmers are merging their operations or selling equipment. One auctioneer noted demand for used agricultural machinery has surged.
In regions that relied on support payments (e.g., pre-Brexit or under older subsidy schemes), reduced public aid adds further pressure, weakening the financial resilience of many small and medium farms.
There’s growing concern the long-term viability of the sector could erode: farms may stop producing traditional arable crops; the “knowledge base” (skills, generational transfer) may degrade; and food-system resilience could suffer.
Broader implications — policy, food security, trade tensions. The crisis underscores structural tensions between Europe’s high-cost, high-environmental-standard agriculture and globalized commodity markets, where less-regulated producers have competitive advantage.
If many producers exit or scale back, the result could be increased imports — risking Europe’s food security, undermining standards, and putting more leverage in the hands of global suppliers.
For policymakers (especially in the context of ongoing discussions about trade agreements like EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement, future subsidy regimes under Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and environmental regulation), this may prompt renewed pressure to redesign support mechanisms — or face closures and consolidation across entire crop sectors.
—Australia expands grain-fed beef exports as U.S. output tightens
Feedlot boom helps Australia capture Asian market share
Australia is rapidly scaling up grain-fed beef production as drought-driven herd declines in the United States create openings in key Asian markets, Reuters reports.
Record feedlot use — 1.6 million cattle on feed, projected to reach 2 million by 2027 — is enabling exporters to deliver more consistent, marbled beef prized in Japan, South Korea, and China. Grain-fed shipments have jumped to 324,421 tons so far this year, up sharply from 2020 levels.
Producers say demand is strong and growing. Gundamain feedlot, which finishes 6,000 Angus cattle on grain diets, plans to double capacity as customers “constantly” ask for more product.
The expansion coincides with shrinking U.S. beef supplies: American cattle on feed fell to 11.7 million, the lowest in years, with USDA projecting production declines through 2026.
Feedlot growth also buffers Australia from drought swings by ensuring steadier year-round supply. While major operators like JBS, NH Foods, Mort & Co, and Teys Australia continue to expand, analysts stress the country won’t reach U.S.-style saturation, as grass-fed beef remains a strong premium market.
| USDA ERS REPORTS |
—USDA’s ERS still hasn’t updated its post-shutdown release calendar — here’s why
Unlike NASS and FAS, the Economic Research Service remains in “under review” mode as deeper data disruptions, staffing constraints, and analytical dependencies delay a reliable reporting schedule
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) is emerging as an outlier among federal statistical agencies following the recent government shutdown: while other offices inside and outside USDA have already published revised release dates for postponed reports, ERS continues to show a blank slate. Its official calendar reads simply, “Release dates are under review and subject to change,” with no upcoming publications listed.
The lack of a refreshed timetable reflects deeper operational challenges unique to ERS. Shutdown guidance classified most ERS activities as non-essential, resulting in the suspension of research, analysis, and report production — a broader halt than at data-collection agencies like the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) or the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Those agencies have already rescheduled certain high-frequency reports, such as weekly export data; ERS, however, produces complex analytical outputs that rely on multiple upstream data streams.
A major constraint is uncertainty over when ERS analysts will regain access to the complete data they need. Many ERS products — from farm-income forecasts to commodity cost structures, food prices, trade outlooks, and sectoral baselines — depend heavily on inputs from NASS, FAS, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and partner agencies. Because these inputs were also disrupted and are returning on different timetables, ERS cannot reliably commit to publication dates without risking further delay or issuing incomplete analysis.
There is also a backlog reality. Even once funding is restored, ERS must determine how to triage unfinished work, evaluate data gaps, and re-sequence reports that were mid-production when the shutdown hit. Analysts and economists typically undergo multi-layer review — technical, statistical, policy, and communications — which makes rapid, wholesale rescheduling difficult. Publishing tentative dates and missing them would create market confusion, particularly given the sensitivity of agricultural, energy, and commodity markets to ERS outlooks.
In contrast, agencies like NASS can more easily restart structured, recurring statistical reports, such as crop progress or production surveys. ERS, by design, delivers interpretive and forecast-driven products that require both data availability and staff capacity — two variables still in flux.
For producers, traders, and policymakers, the empty ERS calendar means an extended period of uncertainty. Market participants will need to rely more heavily on private estimates and non-federal data sources until ERS restores its analytical rhythm. The agency will likely repopulate its schedule only when it has enough confidence in its ability to meet the dates — which may require full normalization of upstream data flows first.
Until then, ERS remains in a holding pattern, and its return to regular reporting could lag other agencies by weeks, depending on how quickly the analytical backlog can be cleared.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Monday: Oil prices climbed after OPEC+ members reaffirmed a plan to hold output steady and as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted exports after a major drone attack and U.S./Venezuela tensions raised concerns about supply. Brent crude futures advanced 2.02% to $63.64 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 2.17% to $59.82. “For some time, the narrative has centered on an oil glut, so OPEC+’s decision to maintain its production target provided some relief and helped stabilize expectations for supply growth in the coming months,” LSEG senior analyst Anh Pham said.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Brazil races to reverse more U.S. tariff hikes
Alckmin says Lula government is “in a hurry” as 50% duties hit key industrial exports
Brazilian Vice President and Industry Minister Geraldo Alckmin said Friday that Brasília is accelerating negotiations with the United States to roll back steep tariff hikes — some as high as 40% to 50% — still applied to roughly 22% of Brazilian exports to the U.S., particularly machinery, equipment, and other industrial goods.
Alckmin argued the current imbalance is stark: while Brazilian products face punishing tariffs, eight of the ten top U.S. exports to Brazil enter at zero duty, with an average rate of just 2.7%. “It makes no sense,” he told reporters after inaugurating the cybercrime division at Inmetro. “We will work hard to reduce this rate… and seize new opportunities for economic complementarity between Brazil and the United States.”
He emphasized that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s directive is to maintain constant dialogue with Washington and move quickly. “We are in a hurry because the faster we resolve this, the more we export. And foreign trade means jobs and income,” Alckmin said.
Despite the tariff headwinds, he noted that Brazilian exports still grew 9.1%, citing October trade-balance data, and pointed to the country’s broader momentum: unemployment fell to a historic low of 5.4% in the three months through October, according to the IBGE. Alckmin also reiterated expectations for the long-delayed Mercosur/EU trade agreement to be signed on December 20.
A DataLiner series of TEU volumes from 2022 to 2025 shows continued growth in containerized exports to the U.S., underscoring the importance of securing tariff relief as negotiations advance.
| CHINA |
—China factory activity contracts for eighth straight month
PMI shows only marginal improvement as weak demand and global uncertainty persist
China’s official manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.2 in November 2025, a slight improvement from October’s six-month low of 49.0 but still signaling contraction for the eighth consecutive month. The latest data underscore a sector under pressure from soft domestic demand, fierce price competition, and cautious global buyers. New orders fell for a fifth month, foreign sales remained weak, and employment continued to slide. Output stagnated after October’s dip, and supplier delivery times held essentially steady. Cost pressures built as input prices rose for the fifth straight month, even as selling prices continued to decline — though at a slower pace.
One bright spot: business confidence improved modestly from October’s three-month low, hinting at some stabilization ahead despite continued headwinds.
| CONGRESS |
Congress faces a 13- to 15-day sprint as health care, funding, and defense fights collide
With ACA subsidies set to expire, gov’t funding unresolved, and the NDAA still in flux, lawmakers enter a chaotic December as internal GOP divisions and a volatile White House cloud the path forward
Congress is barreling into a tumultuous final stretch of the year, with the House set to be in session for just 13 more days — and the Senate 15 — before lawmakers leave for the holidays. What awaits them is an overloaded agenda, a fractured Republican conference, and a White House whose shifting signals continue to complicate urgent decisions. (For more details, link to The Week Ahead.)
ACA premium subsidies: No clear plan, no White House backup. The most consequential deadline looms on Dec. 31, when enhanced Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) premium subsidies expire. Millions of families and small businesses face immediate premium hikes — or could lose coverage entirely — if Congress fails to extend the tax credits.
Before Thanksgiving, President Donald Trump briefly signaled openness to a pared-back, two-year subsidy extension. But after swift pushback from Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and other Hill Republicans, senior administration officials now say an extension is extremely unlikely — and the White House appears poised to offer no plan of its own.
That leaves vulnerable House and Senate Republicans furious, warning that allowing subsidies to lapse could be politically devastating heading into 2026. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has pledged Democrats a vote next week, but without White House engagement, both parties are drifting toward dueling partisan proposals that won’t reach 60 votes.
Senate Democrats are reportedly reverting to their initial position: a clean extension.
Meanwhile, House GOP leaders — facing pressure from swing-district Republicans — are drafting their own plan centered on expanding HSAs and allowing small businesses to pool insurance plans. Conservative concerns about the Hyde Amendment and tax-credit structure remain major hurdles.
Government funding: Thune moves first, House will wait. After the 43-day government shutdown, Thune is trying to restart FY 2026 appropriations by assembling a new minibus combining Defense, Labor-HHS, Transportation-HUD, and Commerce-Justice-Science — with Interior also under consideration. He’s checking for objections and may revive the failed October Defense appropriations vehicle as soon as this week. Senate floor time is tight, however, with judicial and executive nominations stacking up. House GOP leaders, facing internal revolt and lacking a path forward, do not expect to move any spending bills this month. They intend to wait for the Senate to act first.
NDAA: chip controls, AI rules, and an Nvidia lobbying blitz. Negotiators expect to finalize the annual National Defense Authorization Act text this week. But two major disputes remain:
• GAIN AI: The measure would restrict exports of advanced chips — something Nvidia fiercely opposes. A House rewrite gives Congress veto power over exports, but the White House and House GOP leaders still oppose including it. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will visit Capitol Hill on Wednesday to press the case directly.
• State AI regulation: House GOP leaders have struck a deal with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and the White House to bar states from regulating AI — a key priority of Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.). Democrats remain undecided.
House GOP calendar: SCORE Act, permitting bills, and 2026 strategy. On the House floor this week:
• The SCORE Act, a landmark college athletics bill focused on NIL rules.
• A package of permitting-reform measures expected next week.
The GOP’s weekly political meeting will be held at the Capitol Hill Club on Tuesday, followed by the NRCC’s major New York City fundraiser this weekend. Staff directors will head to Boston next Monday for a retreat expected to focus heavily on the 2026 agenda.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Tennessee special election: A deep-red warning sign
GOP braces for another troubling data point as a ruby-red district tightens sharply, underscoring deep vulnerabilities ahead of 2026
An unusually expensive special election in a safe Tennessee district takes place Tuesday. Trump carried the seat by 22 points in 2024. Yet GOP insiders expect Republican Matt Van Epps to win by just five points — a dramatic underperformance and another sign of the party’s weakening political position. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is in Tennessee today to reinforce the candidate — a striking move given the district’s historical margin.
Across Capitol Hill, there is growing acknowledgment that Republicans could lose their House majority before the 2026 election. Whether GOP leaders admit it or not, the numbers are slipping, and December’s legislative fights may deepen those internal fractures.
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—States brace for SNAP disruptions as AGs sue Trump administration over immigrant eligibility rule
Conflicting federal guidance leaves agencies caught between potential penalties and protecting food access for vulnerable families
State agencies administering the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are facing mounting uncertainty after 22 attorneys general sued the Trump administration, arguing that new federal guidance unlawfully blocks certain lawful permanent residents from receiving food aid. While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act removed SNAP eligibility for migrants who currently hold refugee or asylum status, the lawsuit argues the law does not prohibit access for individuals who previously held those statuses and later became green-card holders.
Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell said her state agency feels trapped between conflicting obligations — fear of federal penalties on one side, and the responsibility to ensure residents can buy food on the other. “They’re concerned about the federal government threatening penalties against our state and agency,” Campbell said. “They’re concerned about residents, our most vulnerable, who receive SNAP benefits, not having access to food resources.”
Cecille Avila of the Massachusetts Department of Transitional Assistance said the agency is focused on communicating federal changes to ensure families do not lose support during the litigation.
Other states are weighing temporary workarounds. Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield said the state may provide supplemental funding while the case proceeds, noting that legislative and executive officials are collaborating to prevent hunger during the holidays. Gov. Tina Kotek is “working on implementation” of potential state-level support, he said.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta expects a ruling within days, likely from a lower court. The case could reach the Supreme Court on the emergency docket, though Bonta is skeptical it would be taken up.
At the heart of the lawsuit is USDA’s Oct. 31 guidance declaring certain legal permanent residents — specifically those who previously entered the U.S. as refugees or asylum-seekers — ineligible for SNAP. The attorneys general argue the agency exceeded the statutory text, “arbitrarily excluding from SNAP many lawful permanent residents.”
The White House defended the guidance. “President Donald Trump was elected with a resounding mandate to eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse across the federal government — which includes ensuring that illegal aliens are not receiving benefits intended for American citizens,” deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said.
As states await the court’s decision, agencies remain stuck between evolving federal directives and their duty to safeguard food access for vulnerable households.
| TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS |
—Red Sea reopening set to reshape global shipping in 2026
ING Economics: Expect port congestion first, rate collapse later
A new ING Economics analysis says the biggest story in container shipping for 2026 will be the gradual return to the Red Sea–Suez Canal route, ending nearly two years of costly detours around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. Major carriers — including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM — now signal they are ready to resume transits once security conditions allow.
Why the return matters. The Suez Canal handles 15%+ of global goods trade and up to double that share of container traffic. Avoiding the Red Sea added 3,000+ nautical miles and 10 days to Asia–Europe voyages, tying up roughly 6% of global fleet capacity and inflating carrier profits.
Stage 1: Congestion and brief rate pressure. ING warns the first effect of a Suez return will be operational disruption:
• Ships will arrive in Europe earlier than planned, causing port congestion.
• Container imbalances and blank sailings are likely.
• Short-term spot rates may rise—especially if the shift aligns with Chinese New Year.
Stage 2: Major downward pressure on rates. Once schedules stabilize, ING expects a sharp rate decline as:
• Capacity freed from the Cape detour returns
• A large orderbook (32% of fleet capacity) enters service in 2026
• Global container demand remains weak
• Slow steaming and vessel scrapping may soften the blow, but not enough to prevent a market glut.
Why carriers are moving slowly. Liners are cautious due to:
• Ongoing security and insurance uncertainties
• Fear of “double disruption” after spending 2024–25 stabilizing Cape-based schedules
• The need to protect new alliance reliability commitments, such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s 90% target under the Gemini Alliance
Carriers will likely test the route first on backhaul voyages to Asia.
Other shipping segments. Tankers and bulk carriers will see limited impact, as their dependence on the Suez route is lower and their markets are driven more by changing trade patterns and protectionist policies.
| BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR |
—GT Thompson weighs legislation to expand year-round migrant ag workforce
Pennsylvania Farm Bureau signals coming push to open H-2A program to dairy, livestock, and other year-round sectors
The Pennsylvania Farm Bureau (PFB) says House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) is preparing to introduce legislation that would finally create a pathway for U.S. farms with year-round labor needs to hire migrant workers legally and predictably.
Today’s H-2A visa program is effectively limited to seasonal farm jobs, excluding major sectors of Pennsylvania agriculture — dairy, livestock, mushroom operations, and many specialty producers that require 12-month labor. PFB has long argued that this creates a persistent workforce shortage and puts U.S. producers at a disadvantage compared to foreign competitors.
What Thompson’s legislation is expected to address. While the legislative text is not yet public, farm-sector advocates and sources familiar with Thompson’s effort say the bill is likely to include:
• A new or expanded legal channel for year-round ag labor. This could involve:
- A revised H-2A framework that lifts the “temporary/seasonal” restriction;
- A new visa category tailored to continuous operations such as dairy and livestock; or
- A hybrid model built off earlier bipartisan proposals like the Farm Workforce Modernization Act.
• Relief for dairy, livestock, and mushroom growers. These Pennsylvania-heavy industries have lobbied for years for a stable workforce. PFB says Thompson’s plan would directly address their top structural challenge: chronic understaffing that limits production, animal care, and long-term capital investment.
• Potential wage-rate and program-efficiency reforms. Growers have also pushed for:
- A simpler Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) structure;
- Reduced paperwork and processing delays; and
- Greater portability so workers can move between approved employers during labor spikes.
• A pathway aimed at protecting U.S. producers, not creating amnesty. Thompson has consistently emphasized that any workforce legislation he supports must:
- Preserve border-security priorities;
- Ensure robust verification; and
- Avoid broad legalization measures that could fracture House GOP support.
Political context. Thompson’s move comes as:
• Labor shortages remain the #1 cost and operational challenge for many year-round operations;
• Farm-state Republicans and Democrats continue to seek a narrow, agriculture-only immigration solution even as broader immigration negotiations remain gridlocked;
• The industry faces rising input costs, consolidation pressures, and competition from countries with flexible labor programs.
The legislation is expected to draw strong interest from dairy states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Idaho) as well as pork, poultry, and horticulture producers nationwide.
If Thompson introduces the bill before year-end — as PFB expects — it could become a central negotiating element in any Farm Bill 2.0 framework or a standalone debate early next year.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Monday will bring a messy wintry mix across the Ozarks/Mid-South into the Ohio Valley with light to moderate snowfall for portions of the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes… …First winter storm of the season expected for New England and the
inland Mid-Atlantic late Monday into Tuesday with heavy snow and impactful icing… …Chilly temperatures continue across much of the eastern and central U.S. in a winter-like pattern.
