Trump & Iran Trade War Threats With Hormuz Crisis Building

Trump to send ICE agents to assist TSA at airports amid shutdown | Several key ag/energy meetings this week as EPA RFS decisions near

LINKS

Link:  Macroeconomic Watch: March 21, 2026
Link: Trump/Xi Summit Reset Sharpens Focus on Ag Deliverables
          Beyond Soybeans

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21

Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21
Topics discussed on podcast:
Markets: Friday closes and weekly change
           Salute to Orion Samuelson
           Issues: 

1.    Trump/Xi reschedule and impact on ag

2.    New farmer aid prospects

3.    Around $8.3 billion paid out via bridge aid program

4.    Top-up payments for SDRP-Stage 1

5.    Ag event Friday at White House — RFS details or not?

6.    Fertilizer issue and the war with Iran (Jones Act waiver)

7.    Dryness in Plains HRW

8.    Wildfires…Nebraska

9.    Year-round E15 prospects still pending. Why?

10.  Greeley JBS plant strike
11.   USMCA

12.   Wasserman on midterm elections

Link: Topics in the March 21 Weekend Update:

TOP STORIES
— USDA accelerates $8.3B in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments.

— Update on White House to host March 27 “Celebration of Ag”

— U.S. signals progress in Iran conflict while weighing drawdown

— Iran expands war to global economy

— War shock ripples through global economy

— United Airlines prepares for $175 oil scenario

— Iran war fallout expected to linger for years

— U.S. escalates effort to reopen Strait of Hormuz

— Canada signals resource leverage in U.S. tariff dispute

— Musk offers to pay TSA workers during shutdown

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Stocks fall for week

— Dimon maps JPMorgan’s next phase

— Powell invokes Volcker amid political pressure

WAR WITH IRAN

— Energy shock hits developing economies hardest

AG MARKETS

— Cattle on Feed report signals tight near-term supply

— Russia cattle outbreak raises disease concerns

— Ag futures mixed on week

FARM POLICY

— Canada expands farm aid amid input cost surge

FERTILIZER

— Fertilizer crisis deepens as war hits phosphate and sulfur supply

— Trump cannot unilaterally suspend Moroccan fertilizer duties

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil surges to four-year high

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Chocolate prices remain high despite cocoa collapse

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

— Trump threatens ICE deployment to airports

WEATHER

— Extreme heat and fire risk expand across U.S.

The Week Ahead: March 22, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— U.S./Iran tensions escalate sharply as President Trump threatens strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure, prompting Tehran to warn of sweeping retaliation across energy and regional assets — raising risks of broader supply disruptions and global market volatility.

— TSA staffing crisis deepens amid the DHS shutdown, with hundreds of workers quitting and absentee rates surging — straining airport operations and intensifying pressure on Washington to reach a funding deal.

— USMCA review talks officially begin, with Mexico pushing tariff relief and the U.S. pressing non-tariff concerns — setting the stage for a major reset of North American trade policy.

CONGRESS

— Biofuel policy takes center stage as the EPA nears decisions on 2026–2027 RVOs, with disputes over “half-RIN” credits, small refinery exemptions, and E15 waivers carrying major implications for corn, soybean, and fuel markets.

— President Trump’s March 27 White House farm event will gather hundreds of producers and agribusiness leaders — serving as a platform for broader farm policy messaging and a potential, though uncertain, RVO announcement.

— The Supreme Court hears a major election case on mail ballot deadlines that could reshape voting rules nationwide and affect hundreds of thousands of ballots.

— Lawmakers face a March 27 deadline to resolve the DHS shutdown, with Senate leaders signaling recess could be canceled if no agreement is reached.

— Republicans, led by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), push to split DHS funding to prioritize ICE and CBP via reconciliation — escalating the political standoff as airport disruptions worsen.

KEY EVENTS

— A packed week of agriculture, trade, and policy events — including National Ag Day, major industry summits, and a White House farm gathering — will drive messaging and potential policy signals.

ECONOMIC REPORTS

— Markets remain on edge amid oil volatility and a heavy slate of Fed speeches, corporate earnings, and key data releases including PMI, housing, and jobless claims — shaping the near-term economic outlook.

AG REPORTS

— A full USDA reporting week — spanning export demand, livestock supplies, and food price outlook — will provide critical signals on inflation, production trends, and commodity direction.

ENERGY REPORTS

— Energy markets face a dense mix of inventory data, global conferences, and contract expirations — with EIA reports, positioning data, and geopolitical risks driving price direction and volatility.

TOP STORIES—Trump escalates Iran standoff with infrastructure threatsTehran warns of sweeping retaliation targeting U.S. and regional assets if energy facilities are struck Iran sharply escalated its rhetoric Sunday, warning it would target critical infrastructure across the Middle East if President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to strike the country’s power plants. The warning came after Trump said he would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power generation facilities — beginning with its largest — if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, marking a significant intensification in U.S. pressure tied directly to global energy flows. Iran’s military operational command responded that any attack on its fuel and energy systems would trigger retaliation against a broad set of targets, including energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure linked to the U.S. and its regional allies. The exchange underscores a rapid shift from conventional military confrontation toward potential infrastructure warfare — a scenario with far-reaching implications for both regional stability and global markets. From a market perspective, analysts note that strikes on Iran’s power sector alone would not immediately disrupt global oil supply in the same way as attacks on upstream assets like the South Pars gas field. However, the signaling effect — and the risk of retaliatory strikes on Gulf infrastructure — raises the probability of wider energy and logistics disruptions. Iran operates a large domestic power network, with roughly 98 natural gas-fired plants. Key facilities include the Damavand plant near Tehran, the Ramin plant in Ahvaz, and the Kerman facility. Trump’s reference to targeting the largest sites has also fueled speculation that Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant could be among potential targets. Bottom Line: The confrontation is entering a more dangerous phase where energy infrastructure — not just military assets — is becoming a central lever of escalation, increasing the risk of broader supply shocks, shipping disruptions, and sustained volatility across global energy and commodity markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its partners in the Middle East are keeping a close eye on Tehran’s Houthi allies, who could disrupt shipping on another key oil route: the Red Sea.Iran has deployed oil as a strategic weapon on a scale not seen in decades, signaling a new phase in 21st-century geopolitical competition. Nearly 90% of seaborne crude moves through just eight critical chokepoints — including the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb — both of which Iran claims could be disrupted by allied forces such as Yemen’s Houthis. The episode underscores a broader shift: the foundations of military and economic power are tilting back toward control of tangible resources — from energy supplies to rare-earth minerals and industrial capacity.—TSA workforce strains mount as shutdown drags onUnpaid workers quit in growing numbers, triggering staffing shortages and airport disruptions More than 400 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employees have resigned since the partial Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown began on Feb. 14, underscoring mounting operational strain at U.S. airports, according to DHS data reported by NBC News (link). The shutdown — driven by a standoff over Democratic demands for reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) — has left TSA workers on the job without pay, accelerating attrition and absenteeism. Staffing pressures intensify.• TSA employs roughly 65,000 workers, including about 50,000 front-line screening officers.• Nearly half of those who have quit had more than three years of experience, and about one-third had over five years — signaling a loss of seasoned personnel.• Callout rates — workers not reporting for duty — have exceeded 10% nationwide on multiple days, peaking at 10.22%. Disruptions are particularly acute at major hubs:• New York’s JFK Airport: 29.5% callout rate• Houston Intercontinental: 36.6%• Houston Hobby: 51.5% The staffing shortages are already translating into longer wait times, reduced checkpoint capacity, and growing passenger frustration. Financial strain on workers. TSA officers, required to work without pay during the shutdown, are facing significant financial hardship. Some have reported risks of eviction and inability to cover basic expenses. One officer told NBC News he feared becoming homeless after weeks without income. Political stalemate deepens. Efforts to resolve the impasse remain gridlocked:• Senate Democrats blocked a Republican proposal to fully fund DHS.• A Democratic bill to fund TSA alone failed to reach the 60-vote threshold.• Democratic leaders continue to push for ICE reforms, including limits on enforcement practices and transparency measures.• Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is leading a growing push among Senate Republicans to split Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) from broader Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding (see details below).• Trump says he’s ready to deploy ICE to airports on Monday The Trump administration has blamed Democrats for the shutdown, while President Donald Trump has threatened to deploy immigration agents to airports to mitigate disruptions. Notably, ICE funding remains intact, bolstered by $75 billion from last year’s major legislative package. Bottom Line: The longer the DHS funding standoff persists, the greater the operational risk to U.S. air travel. Rising attrition among experienced TSA officers and escalating absenteeism are compounding security and efficiency challenges — with no near-term resolution in sight as political divisions harden. —Update: USMCA review talks begin, setting stage for North American trade resetMexico pushes tariff relief priorities as U.S. raises non-tariff concerns ahead of Canada’s entry into negotiations The formal launch of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) review negotiations marked the most consequential economic development of last week for Mexico. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on Wednesday, officially kicking off talks that will shape the future of North American trade. Canada is expected to join the negotiations in May, expanding the trilateral scope of discussions. Mexico has made clear its top priorities — securing the removal of U.S. tariffs on automotive exports, as well as steel and aluminum. Meanwhile, Washington has focused on a broad set of non-tariff concerns. By Thursday, President Claudia Sheinbaum said her administration had responded point-by-point to all 54 issues raised by the U.S., stating that the majority have now been addressed. Next up: USMCA working groups will begin drilling into the treaty’s 34 chapters.

—CONGRESS

—This is the week for meetings in Washington on a host of topics. Key is whether any major announcements will come from those confabs.

—Biofuel mandates and SRE reallocation are in focus as farmers press the Trump administration for clarity. RVO uncertainty, trade talks, and rising input costs converge at a critical moment for U.S. agriculture

It’s apivotal week as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency prepares to finalize its long-awaited 2026–2027 renewable fuel standards (RVOs), while President Donald Trump hosts a major White House event Friday with producers and trade officials engage globally.

—RVO decisions were promised by the end of March. The EPA’s proposed renewable volume obligations (RVOs) — which dictate how much biofuel must be blended into the nation’s fuel supply — remain under review at the Office of Management and Budget, where stakeholder meetings are continuing through Thursday.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin is expected to provide signals this week during high-profile appearances, including the Agri-Pulse Ag & Food Policy Summit on Monday and National Ag Day events on Tuesday (link).

At stake:

• Final blending volumes for ethanol and biodiesel through 2027

Treatment of imported feedstocks under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

• Handling of small refinery exemptions (SREs)

—“Half-RIN” fight intensifies. A central flashpoint is the proposed “half-RIN” policy — which would assign only 50% credit under the Renewable Fuel Standard for fuels made with foreign feedstocks like Chinese used cooking oil or Brazilian tallow. Soybean growers & processors strongly support the rule, arguing it protects U.S. farmers from unfair import competition. Fuel producers & refiners oppose it, warning it could raise costs and reduce supply flexibility. The issue has taken on political weight amid concerns that some imported “used cooking oil” may actually be disguised virgin palm oil, which is excluded from the program.

—Small refinery exemptions create additional uncertainty. Another major unresolved issue is whether EPA will fully reallocate blending volumes lost to small refinery exemptions granted between 2023 and 2025. Biofuel and agriculture groups are pushing for 100% reallocation. Recent reports suggest EPA may fall short of that benchmark and announce 70% or 75% reallocation to non-exempt refineries. The decision could significantly impact overall demand for corn ethanol and soybean-based biodiesel.

—E15 waiver expected amid energy disruptions. EPA is also expected to issue an emergency waiver allowing summer sales of E15 — gasoline blended with 15% ethanol — as the U.S./Iran conflict disrupts fuel markets and pushes gasoline prices higher. However, courts have ruled that only Congress can authorize permanent, year-round E15 sales, leaving the industry reliant on temporary waivers — a continuing source of frustration among farm and biofuel groups who are still waiting on the House to release legislation regarding year-round E15. Lawmakers pledged to release language by Feb. 25.

Farm groups and biofuel producers are watching closely after years of frustration with what they viewed as weak mandates under prior policy.

—White House event Friday elevates political stakes. The policy debate will culminate Friday as President Trump hosts hundreds of farmers at the White House, offering producers a rare opportunity to directly influence administration priorities. On Saturday, we updated a preview of the Friday confab:

The White House is preparing to host a major agriculture-focused event on Friday, March 27, bringing together hundreds of farmers, ranchers, and agribusiness leaders as part of a broader push to reinforce support for rural America and highlight the administration’s farm agenda.

Who is expected to attend

•Farmers and ranchers: Between 800 and nearly 1,000 producers from across the country have been invited

•Agribusiness leaders. CEOs and senior executives from major companies including:

• John Deere
• Tractor Supply
• CNH Industrial

•Biofuels industry participants. Ethanol and biodiesel producers, along with broader renewable fuels stakeholders

•Administration officials:

• President Donald Trump
• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins
• Additional White House and policy officials

The event is framed as a “celebration of agriculture” on the White House South Lawn, timed around National Agriculture Week.

What is expected to be announced

1. Biofuels mandate decision (RFS / RVOs) — possible but uncertain

The biggest policy question is whether the administration will unveil Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blending mandates for 2026–2027. These Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) determine how much ethanol and biodiesel must be blended into U.S. fuel supply — a key driver of corn and soybean demand.

Markets are watching closely because proposed levels would increase total blending requirements significantly.

However, there is conflicting guidance:

•Some expect the announcement at the event

•Others say EPA has not confirmed it will be released that day

Bottom Line: The event is a logical venue for the announcement, but not guaranteed.

2. Broader “pro-farmer” policy agenda rollout. The White House is expected to emphasize a wide-ranging farm policy platform, including:

•Lower input costs (fertilizer, chemicals, fuel)

•Expanded export markets via trade policy

• Strengthened farm safety net programs

•Tax changes, including:

• Doubling estate tax exemptions
• Eliminating taxes on rural loan interest
• Rural economic initiatives, such as opportunity zones

This reflects a broader effort to stabilize farm income amid:

• Weak commodity prices

• Rising input costs

•Trade disruptions and geopolitical pressures

3. Political and coalition-building objectives. The event is also designed to:

•Reinforce ties with rural voters and farm groups

•Highlight agriculture’s role in the U.S. economy

•Strengthen support ahead of key elections in farm-heavy states

Bottom Line: The March 27 White House gathering is shaping up as a high-profile agriculture policy moment, combining:

• A large-scale show of support from farmers and agribusiness

• Messaging around the administration’s farm and rural agenda

• Potential — but not certain — announcement of biofuels mandates, one of the most consequential policy decisions for commodity markets this year

For markets — especially corn, soybean oil, and biofuels — the RVO decision remains the key variable to watch coming out of the event.

—Supreme Court on Monday weighs mail ballot deadlines ahead of elections

High-stakes case could reshape voting rules across multiple states and impact hundreds of thousands of ballots

A closely watched Supreme Court case — Watson v. Republican National Committee — is set to test a fundamental question at the heart of U.S. elections: whether mail ballots must be received by Election Day or simply postmarked by that date to be counted.

The case, backed by allies of President Donald Trump, challenges laws in states like Mississippi that allow ballots to arrive after Election Day — in some cases up to five business days later — so long as they were sent on time. A ruling in favor of stricter deadlines could affect voting procedures in at least 18 states and territories and potentially invalidate hundreds of thousands of ballots that are currently considered legal.

Political and legal stakes intensify. The dispute reflects broader Republican efforts to tighten mail voting rules following the surge in absentee ballots during the 2020 election. Trump and GOP leaders argue that requiring ballots to be received by Election Day would improve confidence in election results and reduce delays in vote counting.

Democrats, voting rights groups, and some election officials counter that such changes could disenfranchise voters — particularly in rural areas and among military and overseas voters — while also increasing confusion if implemented during an election year.

The case also intersects with the “Purcell principle,” a Supreme Court doctrine cautioning against altering election rules too close to an election, which could weigh heavily in the Court’s decision.

Data underscores the scale of what’s at stake. In 2024 alone, at least 725,000 ballots were counted after arriving post–Election Day within legally accepted windows. Meanwhile, voting patterns show that late-arriving ballots have leaned heavily Democratic in some states — adding a clear partisan dimension to the case’s potential outcome.

However, the issue is not purely partisan. Mail voting remains popular in many Republican-leaning rural areas, and late-arriving ballots have historically benefited both parties, including military ballots that have played decisive roles in past elections.

Bottom Line: At its core, the case could redefine how “Election Day” is interpreted nationwide — with sweeping implications for election administration, voter access, and political outcomes in an already tightly contested election cycle.

—Friday, March 27 is the deadline for Congress to solve the ongoing Department of Homeland Security shutdown before lawmakers leave town for a two-week spring recess for the Easter and Passover holidays. But Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has warned that he could keep the chamber in session — canceling some or all of that planned recess — without a funding breakthrough. “I can’t see us taking a break if the government’s still shut down,” Thune said last week.

—GOP push to split DHS funding gains traction amid shutdown chaos

Senate Republicans explore funding ICE and CBP separately as airport disruptions and negotiations intensify

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is leading a growing push among Senate Republicans to split Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) from broader Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding, aiming to bypass a stalemate with Democrats and restore key operations during the ongoing shutdown.

Cruz argues Republicans could fund ICE and CBP through the budget reconciliation process — requiring only a simple majority — while leaving the rest of DHS funding to separate negotiations. The proposal is gaining momentum as lawmakers face mounting pressure from widespread airport disruptions, including multi-hour TSA lines and rising absenteeism among unpaid workers.

Republicans contend the shutdown is undermining national security and aviation operations, pointing to missed TSA paychecks, worker resignations, and extended wait times at major airports. Cruz framed the issue as both a security and operational crisis, linking the funding lapse to recent domestic threats and travel chaos.

The idea has drawn openness from key GOP senators, including Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), who suggested advancing a partial funding bill for DHS while using reconciliation to secure immigration enforcement funding — effectively sidestepping a Democratic filibuster.

Democrats, however, have pushed for the opposite approach — funding non-enforcement agencies like TSA, FEMA, and the Coast Guard separately from ICE and CBP — to force broader immigration policy reforms.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has not ruled out the GOP strategy but emphasized that a comprehensive bipartisan agreement remains the preferred outcome. Meanwhile, negotiations continue, with White House officials meeting lawmakers to break the 36-day impasse.

Bottom Line: The Cruz proposal marks a significant escalation in GOP strategy — signaling a willingness to use reconciliation to isolate immigration enforcement funding — as operational strain from the shutdown increases pressure on both parties to reach a deal.

—KEY EVENTS

Mon., March 23

• National Grain and Feed Association annual meeting, through Tuesday, Nashville, Tennessee.

•International Dairy Foods Association Women’s Summit, through Wednesday.

•Agri-Pulse Ag and Food Policy Summit, National Press Club.
•Trump/Xi summit. Atlantic Council event with former Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on what to expect from Trump’s forthcoming Beijing visit around mid-May.

Tue., March 24

•USDA event, 53rd annual National Ag Day. Speakers include USDA

Secretary Brooke Rollins, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr., Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz, American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall and others. Link.

•Bloomberg’s Farm, Food & Fuel Summit, through Wednesday, Kansas City, Missouri. Link.

Wed., March 25

• Politico Economy Summit. Speakers include White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.,) and Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.). Link.

Thur., March 26
• American Enterprise Institute event on “Feeding the World in the 21st Century.”

•“Fertilizer and Fuel Risks as a Result of the Iran Conflict.” University of Illinois webinar. Link.

•Cato Institute forum, “Congress, the Balance of Payments, and Tariff Reform.”

Fri., March 27

•White House ag stakeholder event. President Donald Trump hosts farmers and ranchers.

—ECONOMIC REPORTS

—Markets enter the week on edge, with investors focused on persistent volatility in oil prices and a steady drumbeat of Federal Reserve commentary. Several Fed officials — including Vice Chair Michael Barr and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly — are slated to speak, offering potential signals on the policy path ahead.

On the corporate side, a fresh round of earnings will drive single-stock action, with results due from GameStop (GME), PDD Holdings (PDD), Paychex (PAYX), Chewy (CHWY), and Carnival (CCL). Options markets are flagging heightened volatility in Coinbase (COIN) and lululemon (LULU), while elevated short interest in Sunrun (RUN) raises the potential for sharp, momentum-driven moves.

Key economic releases will also shape the outlook. Flash PMI data on Tuesday will provide an early read on global growth conditions, followed by updates on new home sales and weekly jobless claims — both critical gauges of underlying economic momentum.

Mon., March 23

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index |Construction Spending

Tue., March 24

• New Home Sales | Productivity and Costs | Richmond Fed Manufacturing | Earnings: China Oilfield Services

Wed., March 25

• Import & Export Prices | Earnings: JBS

Thur., March 26

•Jobless Claims | Earnings: Cnooc, KazMunayGas

Fri., March 27 

• Consumer Sentiment

—AG REPORTS

—The week of March 23 features a full slate of USDA reports across the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Economic Research Service, National Agricultural Statistics Service, and Foreign Agricultural Service, with key updates on trade flows, livestock supply, and inflation trends.

Early in the week, export inspections and the ERS Oil Crops Yearbook will help frame grain and oilseed demand, alongside NASS chickens and eggs data.

Midweek attention turns to cold storage inventories and the ERS Food Price Outlook, offering insight into meat supplies and retail inflation, while broiler hatchery data provides a forward look at poultry production.

Thursday is the heaviest data day, with export sales anchoring demand signals and a series of NASS reports — including Hogs and Pigs, peanut stocks, and weekly slaughter — shaping the outlook for livestock and specialty crops. The week wraps with egg products, poultry slaughter, and peanut prices, rounding out supply and pricing trends.

Overall, livestock data and export demand will drive market direction, while the Food Price Outlook ties directly into broader inflation expectations.

Mon., March 23

•  AMS. Export Inspections ERS: Oil Crops Yearbook NASS: Chickens & Eggs 

Tue., March 24

• NASS: Cold Storage

Wed., March 25

• ERS: Food Price OutlookNASS: Broiler Hatchery

Thur., March 26

•FAS: Export Sales ERS: Rice Yearbook | Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook NASS: Hogs and Pigs | Peanut Stocks and Processing | Slaughter Weekly

Fri., March 27 

• NASS: Egg Products  | Poultry Slaughter | Peanut Prices

—ENERGY REPORTS

—From crude and gas inventories to rig counts and futures expirations, the week ahead centers on supply signals and global energy conferences shaping market direction.

Energy markets enter the week with a heavy slate of data releases and global conferences that will help shape near-term price direction and sentiment. Early in the week, attention is split between major industry gatherings — including CERAWeek in Houston and investor and policy forums across Asia — and the American Petroleum Institute’s U.S. inventory report on Tuesday, which will offer the first read on crude and product stock changes.

Midweek brings the most critical data flow, led by Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Status Report and weekly ethanol production figures, both key for gauging U.S. supply-demand balances and biofuel blending trends. Additional insight comes from Genscape’s ARA inventory data, providing a window into European storage levels amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions.

On Thursday, focus shifts to natural gas fundamentals with the EIA Natural Gas Report, alongside global pricing mechanics as Brent May options and WTI calendar spread options approach expiration. Singapore’s weekly oil-product stockpile data will add further clarity on Asian demand trends.

By Friday, positioning and forward expectations take center stage. The CFTC and ICE Commitments of Traders reports will reveal how funds are positioned across crude and refined products, while the Baker-Hughes rig count provides a real-time indicator of U.S. production activity. The expiration of WTI April futures rounds out the week, potentially adding volatility as traders roll positions.

Overall, the week is defined by a convergence of fundamental data, financial positioning, and contract expirations — all unfolding against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical risk and closely watched global demand signals.

Mon., March 23

•  CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston; runs through Friday | Milken Global Investors’ Symposium, Hong Kong | Piper Sandler Annual Energy Conference; runs through Wednesday | Holidays: Azerbaijan; Kazakhstan; Qatar; Iraq; Oman; Egypt; Angola; Argentina; Indonesia; Malaysia; Pakistan; Bangladesh

Tue., March 24

• API US inventory report | Carbon Forward Asia 2026, Singapore; runs through Wednesday | Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, China; runs through Friday | Holidays: Indonesia; Azerbaijan; Kazakhstan; Argentina | Earnings: China Oilfield Services

Wed., March 25

•  EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | Asia Pacific Maritime Conference, Singapore; runs through Friday | Clean Energy Expo China, Beijing; runs through Friday | Holidays: Greece; Azerbaijan; Kazakhstan | Earnings: Ecopetrol

Thur., March 26

•EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | Brent May options expire | Bharat Electricity Summit, New Delhi; runs through Sunday | WTI CSOs for Apil expire | Holidays: Bangladesh; Azerbaijan; India

Fri., March 27 

•  ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Baker-Hughes Rig Count | WTI April futures expire | Holidays: Japan; Indonesia; Azerbaijan