Trump Seeks to Delay Xi Summit ‘By Month or So’ Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Allies push back on U.S. coalition call | Orion Samuelson dies | Nebraska wildfires | Brazil revises soybean inspection rules after export disruptions
| LINKS |
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 15
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 15
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 17, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
Top Stories
— Trump seeks to delay Xi summit amid escalating Iran conflict: Trump said he wants to postpone his Beijing trip by about a month as the Iran war worsens, while U.S. efforts to build a naval coalition for the Strait of Hormuz are meeting strong resistance from allies.
— Soybean group presses Trump to elevate crop in China talks: The American Soybean Association is urging Trump to win bigger Chinese soybean purchases and removal of the remaining 10% retaliatory tariff to ease pressure on U.S. farmers.
— Europe rejects U.S. push for Hormuz coalition: Key European allies are refusing to join a U.S.-led naval mission in the Gulf, favoring diplomacy and limited engagement over deeper military involvement.
— IMO chief warns naval escorts won’t secure Hormuz shipping: The head of the International Maritime Organization said naval escorts may reduce risk but cannot provide a durable fix for commercial shipping through the strait.
— Gulf pipelines provide partial relief as Hormuz crisis expands risks: Saudi and UAE pipeline routes are keeping some oil moving, but they cannot replace Hormuz fully and are themselves becoming targets of escalating attacks.
— Orion Samuelson dies at 91 — iconic voice and champion of American agriculture: The longtime WGN farm broadcaster, who helped explain agriculture to both rural and urban audiences for decades, has died at age 91.
Financial Markets
— Equities today: U.S. stock futures fell, Treasury yields edged higher, and oil jumped after fresh attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure renewed market anxiety.
— Equities yesterday: Major U.S. indexes closed higher Monday, with gains led by the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
Ag Markets
— Wildfires ravage Nebraska rangeland as containment efforts continue: More than 740,000 acres have burned in Nebraska, damaging grazing land, fencing, and water systems and threatening cattle operations.
— Strike at major JBS plant is latest risk to U.S. beef supply: A walkout at JBS’s large Colorado beef plant adds new strain to an already tight cattle and beef market.
— Brazil revises soybean inspection rules after export disruptions: Brazil eased soybean export inspection procedures to China after stricter controls caused major shipping slowdowns and pushback from traders.
— Middle East conflict reshapes farm economics — higher costs, stronger prices: Bunge says the Iran conflict is lifting fertilizer and fuel costs while also boosting grain and oilseed prices, creating a mixed outlook for farmers.
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grain markets fell sharply Monday, while cattle, feeders, cotton, and hogs posted gains.
Energy Markets & Policy
— Tuesday: Oil rebounds as Hormuz disruptions deepen supply fears: Crude surged back above $100 as renewed security threats and weak allied support for tanker protection reignited supply concerns.
— Monday: Oil prices pull back as limited Hormuz traffic resumes: Oil fell after some ships resumed transit, though the market remains highly vulnerable to fresh attacks and supply disruptions.
— Diesel shock ripples through economy as Iran war disrupts supply chains: Diesel prices near $5 a gallon are raising costs for freight, farming, and industry, adding to inflation worries.
Trade Policy
— USTR challenges India’s rice and wheat subsidies at WTO: The U.S. filed a new WTO counter notification arguing India’s farm subsidies far exceed agreed limits, increasing pressure for formal dispute action.
Congress
— Congress turns to China tech risks, budget outlook, and immigration enforcement: Tuesday’s agenda includes hearings on China’s tech advances, the federal budget, healthcare fraud, and immigration-related House and Senate action.
Food Policy & Food Industry
— FAO warns Iran war could trigger multi-layered global food crisis: The FAO says the conflict threatens food security not just through fertilizer and fuel costs, but also via disrupted trade routes, import dependence, and broader supply-chain fragility.
Weather
— NWS outlook: An early western heatwave is expanding east, record cold is shifting through the Southeast, lake-effect snow is fading in the Northeast, and wet conditions continue in the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains.
| TOP STORIES—Trump seeks to delay Xi summit amid escalating Iran conflictU.S. pushes for Hormuz coalition as allies resist, exposing strains in global response President Donald Trump said Monday he would seek to postpone his planned late-March trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, citing the escalating war in the Middle East and the need to remain in the United States. “We’ve got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here,” Trump said, underscoring how the conflict is beginning to disrupt broader diplomatic priorities — including efforts to stabilize U.S./China relations. Trump told reporters he wants to delay the trip by roughly a month as the Middle East conflict intensifies. “I’m looking forward to being with them. We have a very good relationship. But because of the war, there’s no tricks to it either … We got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here. So it could be that we delay a little bit, not much.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized that if the trip is delayed, the White House would announce new dates soon. She added that Trump’s “utmost responsibility right now as commander in chief is to ensure the continued success of Operation Epic Fury.”Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Paris said that if the visit is postponed, “it would have nothing to do with the Chinese making a commitment to the Strait of Hormuz. It would obviously be in their interest to do so, but a postponement would not be as a result of any ask from the president,” Bessent added.The potential delay follows Trump’s warning that he might cancel the visit altogether if China refused to contribute naval forces to secure shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. That demand appears unlikely to gain traction, as China continues to receive Iranian oil and has been allowed safe passage for its vessels — reducing Beijing’s incentive to participate in a U.S.-led escort mission. Allies push back on U.S. coalition call. Trump’s broader appeal for an international naval coalition to protect commercial shipping through the Strait — which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil flows — has been met with resistance or hesitation from key allies (see related item below for more). Germany delivered the clearest rejection, with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stating, “This is not our war; we did not start it.” The European Union also declined to expand its maritime role, though EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas acknowledged that European economic interests remain heavily exposed to disruptions in the Gulf. Japan, Italy, and Australia similarly ruled out participation, while the United Kingdom signaled caution, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasizing that Britain would not be “drawn into wider war.” France and South Korea have so far stopped short of firm commitments, offering only noncommittal responses. Trump frames response as loyalty test. Trump sharply criticized allied reluctance, arguing that decades of U.S. security commitments have not been reciprocated. He suggested the request for naval support was partly intended to gauge allied reliability. “For 40 years we’re protecting you and you don’t want to get involved in something that’s very minor?” Trump said, adding that many of the countries declining to participate rely far more heavily on Gulf oil than the United States. In unusually candid remarks, Trump acknowledged the effort was also a strategic test: “I’m almost doing it… because I want to find out how they react.” War escalation drives oil surge and strategic strain. The diplomatic tensions come as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran enters its third week, expanding across the region and disrupting global energy markets. Iran has launched attacks on ships and regional targets, prompting a sharp slowdown in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets have reacted swiftly — Brent crude briefly surged to $106 per barrel before easing back toward $100, reflecting continued uncertainty over supply disruptions. Meanwhile, disruptions are starting to ripple through the non-oil economy as well: prices of helium, used in health care and industry, have doubled since the war began, while prices for urea, a fertilizer, are up by more than half. U.S. officials have provided limited detail on how they plan to secure the vital waterway. Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, offered no clear operational roadmap for reopening the strait, highlighting the challenge facing Washington as it attempts to manage both a military escalation and a fragile coalition effort. Bottom Line: Trump’s potential delay of the Xi summit signals how rapidly the Middle East conflict is spilling into global diplomacy. With allies resisting U.S. calls for military support and China unlikely to intervene, Washington faces growing isolation in securing one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints — raising risks for both geopolitical stability and global markets. Meanwhile, China watcher Bill Bishop at Sinocism says: “Given the recent reporting that the visit preparations may have been behind schedule, and the relatively positive tone coming from both sides out of the U.S./China meetings in Paris over the last two days, this delay is probably not that big a deal. If it extends past April, or the current trade understanding breaks down, then we can draw a different conclusion. But really the most important takeaway should be that the U.S. president is admitting he does not think the Iran war is ending this month.” According to Wendy Cutler, a senior vice-president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank in Washington, while a delay was not “ideal”, it should not be viewed as a setback in relations if both sides quickly agree on another mutually convenient date in the not-too-distant future. “Both sides privately must be somewhat relieved as they could use more time to flesh out possible deliverables for a leaders’ meeting,” she said. Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator, pointed out that with China hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and the U.S. chairing the G20 this year, the two leaders will have multiple opportunities to meet. —Soybean group presses Trump to elevate crop in China talksAmerican Soybean Association urges tariff removal and stronger purchase commitments ahead of Trump/Xi meeting The American Soybean Association (ASA) is calling on President Donald Trump to make U.S. soybeans a top priority in upcoming trade negotiations with China as preparations continue for a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping later this month. In a March 16 letter (link) to the White House, ASA urged the administration to secure additional Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and eliminate the remaining 10% retaliatory tariff on American soybean imports. The group said stronger commitments are needed to support U.S. farmers heading into the 2026 planting season amid rising production costs and continued market uncertainty. “Farmers continue to face serious headwinds as we enter the 2026 planting season,” said ASA President Scott Metzger, an Ohio soybean farmer. “We need a return to predictable and stable trade with our largest customer in China.” The organization noted that China remains the dominant market for U.S. soybeans. During the 2024/2025 marketing year, U.S. exporters shipped 22.6 million metric tons of soybeans to China valued at $9.9 billion. Historically, Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans average between 25 million and 30 million metric tons annually. Under commitments outlined by the White House last November following negotiations in Busan, China agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year, along with 25 million metric tons annually for 2026 through 2028. ASA said maintaining current export levels while input costs rise is placing additional financial pressure on rural communities, arguing that expanded Chinese purchases and improved market access are necessary to stabilize the farm economy. The group said it appreciates the administration’s engagement on the issue and hopes the upcoming Trump–Xi discussions will deliver new gains for U.S. agriculture and soybean producers in particular. —Europe rejects U.S. push for Hormuz coalitionAllies refuse to join Trump’s proposed naval “armada,” citing escalation risks and unclear war aims European governments have firmly rejected President Donald Trump’s call to join a U.S.-led naval effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, exposing a widening transatlantic divide as the Iran conflict intensifies. According to reporting from the Financial Times and corroborating coverage, key NATO allies — including the UK France, and Germany — have ruled out deploying warships as part of what Trump has described as a multinational security “armada.” No appetite for military escalation. European leaders are emphasizing that they do not want to be drawn into a broader war with Iran:• Germany and other EU members have stressed that this is not Europe’s war and warned against escalation.• The UK has said it will not be pulled into a wider conflict, even while exploring diplomatic or limited maritime coordination options.• EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said there is “no appetite” to expand existing European naval missions to include Hormuz. Even countries traditionally aligned with U.S. security efforts have resisted, with Spain explicitly rejecting participation and other EU states signaling similar positions. NATO tensions and strategic concerns. The dispute is also raising deeper questions about NATO’s role:• European leaders argue NATO is a defensive alliance, not designed for intervention in conflicts like the current Iran war.• Officials are demanding clear U.S. objectives and legal justification before considering any involvement.• Some European policymakers have criticized the U.S. approach as coercive, with one calling it “blackmail.” Trump has warned that refusal to participate could have consequences for NATO’s future, further straining relations. Shift toward diplomacy and alternative measures. Instead of joining a military coalition, European governments are:• Prioritizing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict• Exploring limited, defensive shipping protections outside a U.S.-led command structure• Coordinating with Gulf partners on non-combat maritime security options This reflects a broader European strategy to avoid direct entanglement while still protecting energy flows through a waterway that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply. Bottom Line: Europe’s rejection of Trump’s Hormuz “armada” underscores a major geopolitical rift:• The U.S. is pushing for a hard-security coalition• Europe is opting for containment, diplomacy, and limited engagement The result is a fragmented Western response at a moment when global energy markets — and broader security dynamics — are under severe strain. —IMO chief warns naval escorts won’t secure Hormuz shippingArsenio Dominguez says military protection is not a sustainable fix as risks to vessels and crews persist The head of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is casting doubt on one of the central proposals floated by the Trump administration to stabilize global energy flows — naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz. According to reporting from the Financial Times, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez warned that military escorts would not “100 percent guarantee” safe passage for commercial vessels navigating the conflict-stricken waterway. Dominguez emphasized that while naval protection may reduce some risks, it fails to address the underlying security threats and therefore cannot serve as a long-term solution. He described military intervention as “not a long-term or sustainable solution” to keeping the strait open. Structural risks remain elevated. The warning comes as the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows — remains heavily disrupted by ongoing conflict involving Iran. Even with escorts, several vulnerabilities persist:• The narrow geography of the strait makes ships highly exposed to missile and drone attacks• Ongoing hostilities mean threats can emerge with little warning• Recent incidents, including strikes on tankers, highlight continued operational danger Dominguez underscored that risk cannot be eliminated, only mitigated — a critical distinction for insurers, shippers, and governments weighing intervention. Shipping industry under mounting strain. The IMO chief also warned of growing humanitarian and logistical risks for vessels already trapped:• Some ships face shortages of food and essential supplies for crews• Global supply chains are being forced into costly rerouting and delays• Perishable goods and energy shipments are increasingly at risk “We are collateral damage of a conflict,” Dominguez said, highlighting how commercial shipping has been swept into a geopolitical crisis unrelated to maritime operations. Call for de-escalation — not militarization. Ahead of an emergency IMO Council meeting in London, Dominguez urged ship operators to avoid transiting the region entirely under current conditions and called for broader de-escalation rather than reliance on naval force. The comments directly challenge the emerging U.S. strategy of assembling a multinational escort coalition — an effort that has already faced resistance from key allies and trading partners. Bottom Line: The IMO’s position reinforces a key reality for markets: there is no quick military fix to restoring Hormuz flows. Even with naval escorts, shipping disruptions — and the resulting pressure on oil prices and global inflation — are likely to persist unless the underlying conflict is resolved. —Gulf pipelines provide partial relief as Hormuz crisis expands risksAlternative routes keep some oil flowing, but rising drone attacks and regional escalation threats expose broader vulnerabilities Oil markets are finding limited relief from the Strait of Hormuz disruption thanks to alternative pipeline routes in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — but these workarounds are incomplete and increasingly under threat. Saudi Arabia is redirecting crude through a major pipeline capable of moving up to 7 million barrels per day — roughly two-thirds of its output — to Red Sea export terminals. Meanwhile, the UAE can bypass Hormuz by shipping about half of its 3.4 million b/d production through a pipeline to the port of Fujairah, outside the chokepoint. These routes are helping sustain a meaningful share of Gulf exports, with tankers already rerouting to Saudi Arabia’s west coast. However, the system leaves key producers — including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar — with no viable alternative, effectively cutting off their ability to reach global markets. At the same time, the fallback infrastructure is becoming a new target set. Iran has escalated attacks on regional energy assets, launching more than 50 drones at Saudi oil facilities on March 12–13 — a sharp increase from earlier in the conflict. While Saudi defenses reportedly intercepted all incoming drones, the scale underscores rising risk. A subsequent drone strike near Fujairah on March 14 temporarily halted exports after debris sparked a fire, highlighting the vulnerability of even “safe” routes. The risk extends beyond isolated attacks. Saudi Arabia’s cross-country pipeline — stretching more than 1,200 kilometers — presents an exposed target, and any sustained disruption could sharply tighten global supply. Further compounding the threat, Iran could lean on allied Houthi forces in Yemen to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping. The group previously disrupted maritime traffic in 2024 through missile strikes, and even a single renewed incident could trigger significant market volatility given the current supply fragility. The broader strategic picture leaves both sides constrained. Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, have warned that direct damage to oil infrastructure would cross a red line and risk drawing them deeper into the conflict. At the same time, Iran’s ability to sustain pressure without provoking wider escalation remains uncertain, while the United States faces limited options to fully restore safe passage through Hormuz. In effect, while pipelines are softening the immediate supply shock, the conflict is widening the map of risk — shifting from a single chokepoint to a region-wide energy security challenge. —Orion Samuelson dies at 91 — iconic voice and champion of American agricultureLegendary broadcaster translated farm policy and rural issues for generations of listeners across the U.S. Orion Samuelson, one of the most influential voices in agricultural broadcasting and a longtime fixture on WGN Radio, died Monday just weeks shy of his 92nd birthday, closing a remarkable chapter in farm media. Samuelson was best known for his decades-long tenure at WGN Radio in Chicago, where he delivered daily farm reports that became required listening for producers across the Midwest and beyond. Broadcasting from a major urban station with a wide national reach, he played a unique role in connecting rural America with city audiences — explaining commodity markets, farm policy, and rural economic issues in a way that resonated far beyond the countryside. Over a career spanning more than 60 years, Samuelson built a reputation for clarity, credibility, and consistency. His ability to break down complex topics — from farm bills and global trade to weather impacts and input costs — helped urban listeners better understand the importance of agriculture, while giving farmers a trusted, steady source of information. Samuelson’s partnership with WGN helped elevate agricultural reporting into mainstream media, giving farm issues a prominent platform at a time when few major outlets consistently covered them. His work not only informed markets but also shaped public awareness and policy conversations around food, trade, and rural development. A member of the National Radio Hall of Fame and recipient of numerous agricultural honors, Samuelson remained active late into his career, continuing to offer insights with the same authoritative voice that defined generations of farm broadcasting. Of note: Samuelson was seriously approached to run for the U.S. Senate in Illinois in 2004 against Barack Obama — and he was open to it. In 2004, after the Republican nominee dropped out, GOP leaders were scrambling for a replacement candidate. Then–House Speaker Dennis Hastert and others approached Samuelson about entering the race. Samuelson was willing — even eager — to run. However, during the vetting process, a heart condition surfaced as a significant concern. His doctor strongly advised him not to run, warning that the stress and demands of a statewide campaign could pose real health risks. He ultimately declined, with doctors warning the campaign could be life-threatening. He did not formally run, but he came very close to becoming the Republican nominee in what became Obama’s breakout Senate race. His passing leaves a lasting void in agricultural media — but his legacy endures in the stronger connection he forged between America’s farms and its cities. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: U.S. stock futures moved lower while Treasury yields edged higher after attacks on key Middle East energy infrastructure pushed oil prices sharply upward. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, giving back gains from the prior session. Brent crude jumped 3.6% to near $104 per barrel following Iranian strikes on energy facilities across the Persian Gulf. Treasuries slipped slightly, with the 10-year yield rising one basis point to 4.23%, while the dollar was largely unchanged. Given the pain that a sustained oil shock could deliver to the global economy, “the oil market will drive both credit and equity markets until the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal operation,” Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt wrote.
The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision Wednesday at the conclusion of its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The central bank is widely expected to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price March 16 | Point Difference from March 13 | % Difference from March 13 |
| Dow | 46,946.41 | +387.94 | +0.83% |
| Nasdaq | 22,374.18 | +268.82 | +1.22% |
| S&P 500 | 6,699.38 | +67.19 | +1.01% |
| AG MARKETS |
—Wildfires ravage Nebraska rangeland as containment efforts continue
More than 740,000 acres burned across central and western regions, raising concerns for cattle producers and recovery timelines
A wave of fast-moving wildfires has scorched more than 740,000 acres across central and western Nebraska in recent days, devastating large stretches of rangeland critical to the state’s livestock sector and underscoring the growing risks facing producers during an already fragile farm economy.
State officials say the fires remain only partially contained, with crews continuing to battle flare-ups amid dry conditions, gusty winds, and limited moisture. Authorities warned that full containment could take days — if not longer — depending on weather patterns and the availability of firefighting resources.
Severe impact on grazing land and cattle operations. The fires have primarily consumed pasture and rangeland used for cattle grazing — a key economic backbone in Nebraska, one of the nation’s top beef-producing states. Early reports indicate extensive damage to fencing, water infrastructure, and forage supplies, all of which are essential for spring turnout as producers prepare herds for the grazing season.
For ranchers, the loss of grassland could force difficult decisions in the coming weeks, including early herd liquidation, increased reliance on supplemental feed, or relocation of cattle to unaffected areas — all of which carry significant cost implications.
Compounding pressures on an already strained farm economy. The wildfire damage comes at a time when many producers are already navigating tight margins driven by elevated input costs, including feed, fuel, and fertilizer, alongside ongoing trade uncertainty. The destruction of grazing acreage further strains working capital and could ripple through regional cattle markets if herd sizes are reduced.
Besides direct losses, the fires may also disrupt local supply chains tied to livestock production, including feedlots, processors, and transportation networks.
Weather and drought conditions fueling risk. Officials point to a combination of dry vegetation, below-average precipitation, and strong winds as key drivers of the fires’ rapid spread. Much of Nebraska has experienced persistent dryness heading into early spring, leaving rangeland highly susceptible to ignition.
Fire crews are continuing to monitor conditions closely, with any shift in wind or humidity levels likely to determine how quickly the fires can be brought under control.
Recovery expected to take months — or longer. Even after containment, recovery will be a long-term process. Rangeland regeneration depends heavily on timely rainfall, and in many areas, it could take a full growing season — or more — before grazing capacity is restored.
State and local officials are expected to begin damage assessments in the coming days, which will help determine eligibility for disaster assistance programs and federal support.
For Nebraska’s ranching community, the immediate focus remains on protecting remaining assets and stabilizing operations — but the broader economic and environmental impacts of these fires are likely to linger well beyond the current crisis.
—Strike at major JBS plant is latest risk to U.S. beef supply
Labor walkout at Colorado facility adds pressure to tight cattle market as herd shortages and plant closures already constrain production
A strike at one of the largest beef-processing plants in the United States is threatening to further tighten the nation’s beef supply at a time when prices are already near record levels.
About 3,800 workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado walked off the job Monday in a two-week strike organized by United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 7, citing unfair labor practices and demanding wage increases that better reflect Colorado’s inflation rate.
The union says the company’s contract proposal — offering less than 2% annual wage increases — fails to keep pace with rising living costs and higher health-care expenses. At issue for employees are allegations of retaliation and unfair labor practices. That includes claims Swift’s parent company, JBS USA, charged workers at least $1,100 for personal protective equipment. Almost all workers (99% per the union’s local president) voted to authorize this week’s strike. The union alleges the company refused to negotiate in the lead-up to Sunday’s contract deadline.
The disruption comes as the U.S. cattle sector is already under strain. Years of drought and high production costs have reduced the national cattle herd to its smallest level in decades, sharply tightening supplies. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, cattle slaughter so far in 2026 is down about 10% from the same period last year, contributing to escalating beef prices and making the product a significant driver of food inflation.
JBS said it expects to maintain supply by shifting production temporarily to other facilities, which may limit the immediate disruption. Still, the Greeley plant is a major component of the company’s U.S. network. JBS processes roughly 28,000 cattle per day nationwide, and the Greeley facility alone has capacity to slaughter 5,000 to 6,000 animals daily, making it potentially the largest slaughter-ready cattle plant in the country, according to industry analysts.
The strike adds to a series of recent shocks hitting the beef sector. Meatpackers have already scaled back operations as tight cattle supplies squeeze margins. Tyson Foods has shut a Nebraska cattle plant and reduced operations in Texas, Cargill announced plans to close a Milwaukee ground-beef facility, and JBS has also said it will shutter a California processing plant.
Political pressure on the industry is also rising. The Trump administration has launched an investigation into potential price-fixing among meatpackers, while some Senate Democrats have proposed legislation to break up large meat companies.
The disruption could ultimately raise costs further for consumers, according to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, an industry group.
“Even though the U.S. cattle herd is at record lows, limiting processing capacity and reducing the number of available plants will still rattle markets, squeezing producers with market ready cattle and raising beef prices for consumers,” the association said.
Labor conditions remain a flashpoint as well. Meatpacking relies heavily on immigrant workers, and union leaders say many employees in the Greeley plant work under Temporary Protected Status (TPS) — a program President Donald Trump has sought to restrict as part of broader immigration policy changes. Worker advocates also point to longstanding safety concerns in the industry, which came under scrutiny during the Covid-19 pandemic and through recent lawsuits alleging unsafe or discriminatory conditions.
Bottom Line: For beef markets already constrained by historically tight cattle supplies, the strike underscores how labor disputes, herd shortages, and plant closures are converging to create a fragile supply chain, with potential implications for consumer prices and the broader food inflation outlook.
—Brazil revises soybean inspection rules after export disruptions
New sampling system aims to restore trade flows to China after stricter controls slowed shipments and triggered pushback from major traders
Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry has revised its soybean export inspection procedures to China, moving to ease disruptions that had sharply slowed trade with its largest buyer.
Under the new rules, sampling of soybean cargoes will now primarily be conducted by independent inspection firms hired by trading companies, rather than by government agricultural inspectors. However, ministry officials will still directly oversee sampling in roughly 10% of shipments to maintain regulatory oversight. The changes, formalized by Brazil’s Vigiagro on March 13, take immediate effect for cargoes not yet tested.
The policy shift follows mounting pressure from exporters and global grain traders, who warned that stricter inspection protocols were creating bottlenecks. According to industry reporting, Brazilian soybean trading volumes dropped to roughly one-quarter of the prior week after the earlier rules were implemented.
Major firms — including Cargill, Cofco International, and CHS Agronegócio — reported shipment delays, with some suspending purchases or export operations to China altogether as compliance uncertainties mounted.
The dispute stems from Brazil’s detection of quarantine weed species in some shipments, which failed to meet China’s phytosanitary standards. Officials had tightened inspections in part to reinforce the credibility of Brazil’s sanitary controls and ensure shipments were free of foreign material.
The revised approach reflects a compromise — preserving quality assurances while reducing friction in export logistics — as Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro engages directly with trading companies to stabilize flows to the Chinese market.
—Middle East conflict reshapes farm economics — higher costs, stronger prices
Bunge CEO: Input inflation intensifies pressure, but rally in grains and oilseeds offers partial relief
The escalating Middle East conflict is creating a mixed outlook for global agriculture — raising input costs while simultaneously boosting crop prices — according to Bunge CEO Greg Heckman.
Heckman said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy and fertilizer shipments — has sharply increased the cost of key farm inputs, including diesel and fertilizers. This is adding new financial strain for farmers already grappling with weak margins and ongoing trade disruptions, particularly tariffs limiting access to China.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical shock has triggered a rally in grain and oilseed markets. Higher prices are encouraging farmers in North and South America to sell stored crops, improving cash flow and allowing traders like Bunge to expand inventories. “They had the opportunity to sell because prices went up, and we had the opportunity to own more inventory,” Heckman said.
Supply concerns grow as conflict drags on. Despite currently comfortable inventory levels, Heckman warned that prolonged disruption could shift market sentiment quickly. Traders and end-users are increasingly concerned about physical supply availability if the conflict persists, which could further support commodity prices.
The broader dynamic reflects a classic wartime commodity cycle — tightening logistics and higher input costs on one side, with price spikes driven by uncertainty and supply risk on the other.
Logistics shifts mirror past disruptions. Bunge is adapting by rerouting global supply chains, drawing on strategies used during prior disruptions such as the Russia/Ukraine war. The company is shifting export flows between origins and destinations, while increasing reliance on rail and truck transport to bypass constrained shipping lanes.
Heckman pointed to a similar adjustment during past U.S./China trade tensions under the Trump administration, when China shifted soybean purchases to Brazil. That forced global trade realignment — allowing U.S. supplies to be redirected to alternative markets. “You start matching origins and destinations to get the best possible outcome.”
Post-merger positioning and biofuels outlook. Following its merger with Viterra, completed in July, Bunge says it is better equipped to manage volatility across global markets. Heckman emphasized the company’s increased scale and flexibility amid what he described as a period of “deglobalization,” though he noted the firm is prepared for either fragmented or more integrated trade environments.
Looking ahead, Bunge is closely watching U.S. biofuels policy, which could significantly increase demand for oilseeds used in renewable fuel production. The company is actively engaging with policymakers in the U.S. and Brazil to help shape regulations and minimize unintended market disruptions.
Bottom Line: The Middle East conflict is amplifying volatility across agriculture — raising production costs while lifting commodity prices. For farmers, the net impact will depend on how long elevated input costs persist relative to the strength of grain and oilseed markets.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price March 16 | Change from March 13 |
| Corn | May | $4.54 | -13 1/4¢ |
| Soybeans | May | $11.55 1/4 | -70¢ |
| Soybean Meal | May | $312.20 | -$10.50 |
| Soybean Oil | May | 63.94¢ | -350 pts |
| SRW Wheat | May | $5.97 1/4 | -16 1/2¢ |
| HRW Wheat | May | $6.16 1/2 | -13 1/2¢ |
| Spring Wheat | May | $6.34 | -11 1/2¢ |
| Cotton | May | 68.19¢ | +234 pts |
| Live Cattle | April | $231.875 | +$2.925 |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $355.45 | +$5.975 |
| Lean Hogs | April | $93.50 | +$0.05 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Tuesday: Oil rebounds as Hormuz disruptions deepen supply fears
Crude climbs back above $100 as geopolitical risks, infrastructure attacks, and stalled naval support tighten global markets
Oil prices surged more than 3% Tuesday, reversing sharp losses from the prior session, as escalating disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and deteriorating security conditions in the Gulf reignited supply concerns.
The global benchmark Brent Crude index rose to $104 per barrel, up more than 3.7% compared to Monday’s close.
The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate surged more than 4.31% in early trading on Tuesday, hitting $97.50 per barrel.
The rebound follows a volatile prior session in which prices dropped after limited tanker traffic resumed through the strait.
The national average price of gasoline rose to $3.79 per gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA’s fuel price tracker. This is a nearly 30% increase over average gas prices last month. The price of diesel has spiked even further, rising to $5 per gallon from $3.65 last month. Diesel is the primary fuel for heavy vehicles like trucks, tractors, combines, and construction machinery, and the spike in its price is likely to impact everything from groceries to shipping. (More details on diesel prices below.)
The Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows — remains largely compromised amid the third week of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The disruption has intensified fears of prolonged supply shortages, higher transportation costs, and renewed inflationary pressure across global markets.
Analysts warn the situation remains highly fragile. Even isolated attacks — such as missile strikes or naval mines — could rapidly escalate risks and further constrain shipments. Recent developments underscore those concerns, including a drone attack that triggered a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, adding to market anxiety despite no reported casualties.
Compounding the supply shock, the United Arab Emirates has reportedly cut production by more than half due to the inability to move crude through the strait. At the same time, Middle East crude benchmarks have surged to record highs as available export volumes tighten.
Efforts to stabilize shipping flows have faltered diplomatically. Several U.S. allies declined calls from President Donald Trump to deploy naval escorts for tankers transiting the Gulf, drawing criticism from the administration and highlighting fractures in coordinated maritime security efforts.
Market participants are now closely watching three key variables: the duration of the conflict, the extent of physical damage to regional oil infrastructure, and whether global powers step in to secure transit routes.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has signaled that additional emergency stockpile releases remain on the table, following an already unprecedented 400-million-barrel drawdown aimed at cushioning supply disruptions.
With Israel indicating military operations could continue for at least three more weeks, oil markets remain firmly anchored to geopolitical developments — suggesting continued volatility and upside risk for energy prices in the near term.
—Monday: Oil prices pull back as limited Hormuz Traffic resumes
Supply fears ease temporarily, but geopolitical risks and infrastructure threats keep markets on edge
Oil prices declined Monday as signs of partial recovery in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz helped ease immediate supply concerns, though the situation remains highly fragile.
Brent crude settled at $100.21 per barrel, down $2.93 (2.8%), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more sharply to $93.50, a decline of $5.21 (5.3%). The steeper drop in U.S. crude reflects strong domestic production, expectations for additional releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and market positioning ahead of the April WTI contract expiration.
The pullback followed reports that some vessels successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint that typically handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Iran has permitted limited transit for select ships, including some Indian-flagged vessels, as discussions continue over broader safe-passage arrangements.
Despite the price decline, underlying risks remain elevated. The U.S. continues to press allies to contribute to maritime security efforts in the region, but European governments have shown little willingness to expand naval involvement, underscoring the lack of a coordinated international response.
Policymakers are also attempting to cushion the impact of volatile energy markets. The International Energy Agency has indicated that further coordinated releases from global strategic reserves remain on the table following last week’s unprecedented 400-million-barrel drawdown.
Meanwhile, the threat to physical supply persists. Recent drone strikes disrupted loading operations at a major UAE export terminal, highlighting the vulnerability of regional energy infrastructure. Although some operations have resumed, analysts warn that any renewed attacks or sustained damage could rapidly tighten global supply and reverse the recent price declines.
—Diesel shock ripples through economy as Iran war disrupts supply chains
Fuel nearing $5 per gallon threatens higher costs for freight, farming, and inflation outlook
U.S. diesel prices have surged to nearly $5 per gallon — and in some cases above that level — as the Iran war severely disrupts global energy flows, tightening supplies of refined fuels and crude oil. The spike reflects a rapid escalation in energy-market stress tied to the conflict, particularly Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil and diesel shipments.
Supply shock driving the surge. Diesel prices have climbed more than a third in recent weeks, one of the sharpest increases since the Ukraine war-era energy shock.
The Middle East disruption is constraining both crude and refined product exports, tightening global availability. As much as 10–20% of global seaborne diesel supply has been affected, amplifying price volatility. Unlike gasoline, diesel markets are especially sensitive to supply shocks because inventories are typically tighter and demand is less flexible.
Direct hit to transportation and agriculture. Higher diesel costs feed directly into the real economy:
•Freight and logistics: Trucking, rail, and shipping costs rise almost immediately, increasing the cost of moving goods across supply chains.
•Agriculture: Diesel is essential for planting, harvesting, and irrigation — meaning input costs for U.S. farmers are set to climb during the spring planting season.
• Construction and manufacturing: Heavy equipment and industrial processes rely heavily on diesel, broadening the inflationary impact.
Analysts warn this creates a classic “cost-push” dynamic, where higher energy prices ripple through food, consumer goods, and industrial pricing.
Inflation and macro implications. Diesel’s surge is reinforcing broader energy inflation, with oil prices holding above $100 per barrel amid ongoing conflict risks. The increase threatens to slow economic activity while simultaneously pushing prices higher — a stagflationary risk flagged by economists. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may face renewed pressure to stay restrictive if energy-driven inflation accelerates.
Bottom Line: The move toward $5 diesel is more than a headline price spike — it is a transmission mechanism into the entire economy. For agriculture in particular, the timing is critical, as higher fuel costs hit just as producers enter peak fieldwork, raising the risk of tighter margins and higher downstream food prices.
| TRADE POLICY |
—USTR challenges India’s rice and wheat subsidies at WTO
Fourth counter notification argues New Delhi far exceeds agreed subsidy limits, intensifying pressure for potential dispute action
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has filed a fourth counter notification at the World Trade Organization (WTO) accusing India of dramatically underreporting the scale of its domestic support for rice and wheat farmers — a move that could renew calls for formal trade litigation against New Delhi’s farm programs. Filed with the WTO Committee on Agriculture, the notification contends that India’s reporting methods significantly understate the level of trade-distorting subsidies provided through its Market Price Support (MPS) programs.
According to the U.S. analysis, India’s rice subsidies reached an estimated 86% of the crop’s market value in the 2023/24 marketing year, far above the 10% limit India agreed to when it joined the WTO. The counter notification was co-sponsored by Australia, Paraguay, and Ukraine, countries that have joined similar U.S. filings in past years.
Rice industry comments. “While our ultimate goal is to see a change in India’s policies so that U.S. rice farmers can compete on a more level playing field, in the meantime we need to protect our domestic market through an aggressive import tariff that allows us to regain lost market share,” said USA Rice President & CEO Peter Bachmann. “We’re at a critical time where rice farmers on six continents are losing money because of the policies that India has in place. Something needs to change and we need our allies to come together further at the WTO to take a formal dispute settlement case or we’re never going to see the tides change. We thank both the USTR and USDA for taking a fourth swing at India and continuing to maintain like-minded support on this effort.”
Longstanding dispute over subsidy calculations. The U.S. and several trading partners have argued for more than a decade that India’s support programs breach WTO rules. Washington estimates that India’s subsidy levels have exceeded 70% of the value of production since the 2010/11 crop year, far above permitted limits.
U.S. officials also argue India’s reporting practices obscure the true scale of support. By separately classifying subsidies across different rice varieties, India may further understate the total amount of government assistance provided to producers.
| CONGRESS |
—Congress turns to China tech risks, budget outlook, and immigration enforcement
Packed Tuesday agenda highlights AI security concerns, deficit scrutiny, healthcare fraud, and immigration-related votes
Lawmakers face a full slate of hearings and floor action Tuesday, with a heavy focus on national security, fiscal outlook, healthcare oversight, and immigration policy.
Morning hearings — China tech risks and federal budget outlook
At 10 a.m. ET, the House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee will examine the national security risks posed by China’s rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous technologies — an area of growing bipartisan concern tied to both economic competition and defense readiness.
Shortly after, at 10:15 a.m. ET, the House Budget Committee will hear testimony from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on the federal budget and broader economic outlook. The session is expected to focus on deficit projections, interest costs, and how current fiscal policy intersects with inflation and growth — key issues as lawmakers weigh spending and tax priorities.
Midday — House floor action on immigration and land-use policy
At noon, the House will convene for legislative business, with potential votes on:
• A bill clarifying that immigrants who commit fraud against the federal government can be deported, reflecting continued emphasis on enforcement measures.
• Legislation to block restrictions on lead ammunition and fishing tackle on certain federal lands and waters — an issue tied to both environmental regulation and sportsmen’s access.
Afternoon — Healthcare fraud oversight
At 2 p.m. ET, the House Energy and Commerce Committee will hold a hearing examining fraud in Medicare and Medicaid, signaling renewed scrutiny of improper payments and program integrity as healthcare costs remain a major driver of federal spending.
Senate action — SAVE America Act
By approximately 2:30 p.m., ET the Senate is expected to begin consideration of the SAVE America Act, though details of debate timing and amendments remain fluid.
Bottom Line: Tuesday’s agenda underscores Congress’ dual focus on strategic competition with China, fiscal pressures, and domestic enforcement priorities, with immigration, healthcare spending, and regulatory policy all in play alongside broader economic concerns.
| FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—FAO warns Iran war could trigger multi-layered global food crisis
Beyond fertilizer and fuel, conflict threatens trade flows, imports, and vulnerable food systems worldwide
A new analysis (link) from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) underscores that the war involving Iran poses a far broader threat to global food security than just higher fertilizer and energy costs — with ripple effects across trade, production, and food access.
Key risks highlighted in the FAO assessment:
1. Fertilizer shock extends into yield risks
The Strait of Hormuz disruption is choking off a major share of global fertilizer trade — particularly nitrogen products like ammonia and urea.
Reduced fertilizer availability could force farmers worldwide to cut application rates, directly lowering crop yields during a critical growing season.
2. Global trade routes for food are under strain
The conflict is disrupting one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints, through which large volumes of grain and food imports flow.
Countries in the Middle East — many heavily dependent on imports — face rising risks of shortages if shipping constraints persist.
3. Import-dependent countries face acute vulnerability
Nations reliant on imported fertilizers and food — including parts of Africa and South Asia — are especially exposed to price spikes and supply disruptions.
In the Gulf region, limited alternative logistics routes make countries like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar particularly vulnerable.
4. Compounding pressures: energy, inflation, and conflict
Rising fuel costs are feeding directly into higher food production and transportation costs globally.
FAO analysis aligns with broader UN findings that conflict-driven shocks — combined with economic stress and climate pressures — are key drivers of worsening food insecurity worldwide.
5. Structural fragility of global food systems exposed
The crisis highlights heavy dependence on centralized supply chains — especially fossil fuel–based inputs and narrow shipping corridors.
FAO warns this could widen a “food security divide,” where wealthier countries can absorb shocks while poorer nations face hunger risks.
Bottom Line: The FAO’s warning is that the Iran conflict is not just an energy story — it is a systemic food security shock. Disruptions to fertilizer, fuel, and trade flows are converging at once, raising the risk of lower global crop output, higher food prices, and intensified hunger in already fragile regions.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: An anomalously early heatwave begins to intensify and expand east across the western U.S…. …Record cold across the Deep South this morning will shift into the Southeast by Wednesday morning… …Deep cyclone and potent cold front exit New England early this morning with lake-effect snow gradually tapers off later today… …Wet across western Washington states as light snow moves through the northern Plains and upper Midwest…
