Trump: U.S. Will Run Venezuela During Transition

Trump: U.S. Will Run Venezuela During Transition

More cases of screwworm in Mexico; major cattle market impact if border not reopened

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Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 3, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES
— U.S. to oversee Venezuela during transition after Maduro’s capture; Washington says it will temporarily run the country to ensure a stable handover of power and renewed oil engagement.
— Screwworm outbreak edges north as Mexico confirms fresh cases; new detections keep U.S. livestock border restrictions firmly in place.
— U.S. warns Tehran over deadly crackdown as Iran protests spread; Trump signals readiness to act if regime uses lethal force against demonstrators.

FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities end the week mixed; Dow posts modest gains while Nasdaq and S&P 500 slip on a weekly basis.
— U.S. stocks close out a strong 2025, led by technology shares and easing rate expectations.

AG MARKETS
— Cotton growers asked to signal 2026 acreage plans; National Cotton Council launches annual planting intentions survey.
— Sorghum exports gain speed ahead of official data; shipments and sales suggest stronger demand than current government reports show.
— Grain, oilseed, livestock and cotton futures post mostly weaker weekly moves, with strength in cattle markets.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices slip into 2026 as oversupply concerns outweigh geopolitical risks; traders look to OPEC+ for guidance.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Midterms in motion: early primaries, tight House and Senate maps, and key governor races set the stage for a volatile 2026 cycle.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY
— Leaked dietary guidelines graphic raises alarm for grain-based foods, though officials caution the visual is not final and could still change.

WEATHER
— Atmospheric river to drench California with heavy rain and mountain snow; colder systems target the Upper Great Lakes while warmth persists across the Plains and South.

TOP STORIES—U.S. to oversee Venezuela during transition after Maduro’s capture; U.S. will run country until proper transition can take place Trump says American forces will temporarily run the country to ensure a stable handover of power and renewed oil engagement President Donald Trump said Jan. 3 that the United States will temporarily administer Venezuela, a country of about 30 million, following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a U.S. military operation earlier in the day. Federal prosecutors have slapped them with drug-trafficking conspiracy and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York. Trump said Maduro and Flores were on board the USS Iwo Jima, a Navy warship, en route to New York. They’re expected to be flown to NYC from Guantánamo Bay. Speaking at a press conference, Trump said Washington would “run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” stressing that the U.S. does not want to install a successor prematurely or risk renewed instability. “We want peace, liberty, and justice for the great people of Venezuela,” Trump said, adding that the goal includes allowing Venezuelans now living in the United States to eventually return home once conditions stabilize. Trump also signaled a major economic shift, saying large U.S. oil companies would re-enter Venezuela as part of the post-conflict framework, potentially reshaping the country’s energy sector after years of sanctions and isolation. U.S. oil companies will spend “billions of dollars” to fix Venezuelan infrastructure and “start making money for the country,” Trump said. “We’re going to make sure it’s run properly,” Trump says of Venezuela. “We’re going to rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars, it’ll be paid for by the oil companies directly. They will be reimbursed for what they’re doing.” Venezuela holds roughly 17% of the world’s oil reserves. The remarks came after Trump appeared publicly alongside senior national security officials following what he described as a “large-scale strike” that resulted in Maduro’s capture, marking one of the most dramatic U.S. interventions in Latin America in decades. Trump says he didn’t pre-notify lawmakers because “Congress will leak.”—Screwworm outbreak edges north as Mexico confirms fresh casesSecond detection in two days underscores pressure on containment efforts and keeps U.S. livestock border restrictions firmly in place Mexican authorities confirmed a new case of the New World screwworm parasite late Thursday, marking the second detection in as many days and highlighting the ongoing challenge of containing an outbreak that has disrupted cross-border livestock trade, Reuters reported. The latest case was found in a goat in the State of Mexico, adjacent to Mexico City. Officials said the animal was treated promptly, while 20 other animals at the site tested negative and received preventive treatment. The report followed a Dec. 31 case involving a six-day-old calf in Tamaulipas, where no additional infections were detected at that location. Authorities from the National Service for Agrifood Health, Safety and Quality (Senasica) confirmed the detection of a new case in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas located 197 miles from the Texas border. This is the first reported case in Tamaulipas and the northernmost active case recorded to date. While the parasite had previously been detected in other parts of Mexico , this new location significantly reduces the distance to the United States. Since November 2024, Mexico has recorded 13,106 screwworm cases, with 671 still active as of the end of 2025. The highest concentrations remain in southern states — led by Chiapas, followed by Oaxaca, Veracruz and Yucatán — though the more recent detections farther north have heightened concern. Screwworms are flesh-eating parasites whose larvae infest open wounds in animals, often proving fatal if untreated. The outbreak, which spread northward from Central America, has rattled livestock producers on both sides of the border. Because of the risk, the United States has kept its southern border largely closed to Mexican livestock imports since May. While U.S. officials say the pest has not crossed into the country, USDA estimates a potential economic hit of $1.8 billion to Texas alone if the screwworm were to spread north. From the U.S. side, officials and specialists reiterated the need to strengthen containment strategies. In official statements, Texas authorities warned that the parasite’s proximity is a reminder of the ongoing health risk to livestock production in the southern part of the country. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins previously announced the construction of a sterile insect production facility in Edinburg, Texas, with the capacity to produce up to 300 million sterile flies per week. The goal is to create an effective biological barrier to prevent the parasite from spreading northward. USDA has not given any timeframe for reopening cattle imports — they are monitoring containment benchmarks rather than setting a calendar date. What needs to happen before reopening. For the U.S. to allow Mexican cattle trade to resume, officials have indicated they want:• Sustained containment of screwworm cases in Mexico, especially in northern states near the border, with no new detections over a significant window;• Robust surveillance and eradication protocols, including widespread trapping, sterile fly releases, and cross-border cooperation;• Confidence from USDA leadership and animal health authorities that the parasite will not breach U.S. territory if cattle imports restart. Until those criteria are demonstrably met, the outbreak continues to be the primary factor delaying any reopening of the border for Mexican cattle trade. Bottom Line: The recent New World screwworm cases in Mexico directly delay the U.S./Mexico border reopening for live Mexican cattle. USDA has tied the resumption of trade not to a specific date, but to biosecurity conditions and containment success, and with new cases still being reported, no clear timing has been set for reopening. Market impact according to one veteran cattle industry contact:“The combination of the border being closed and the aggressive expansion going on in the U.S. will make beef prices move up 10% from current levels to 380 in the coming months. The border closure has reduced the cattle supply by 10%. The longer they take to reopen, the higher prices will continue to be. This is placing a strain on regional packing plants (the ones that don’t have profits from chicken or pork) and will lead to more plant closures between now and this spring and summer. These plant closures will cripple the U.S. cattle feeders in the wake of current expansion efforts leading to the largest crisis in the history of cattle feeding if they don’t reopen the border. You can’t expand the herd like we are and reduce packing capacity… it’s an economic time bomb.” —U.S. warns Tehran over deadly crackdown as Iran protests spreadTrump signals readiness to act if regime uses lethal force against demonstrators amid deepening economic crisis President Donald Trump said the U.S. would intervene if Iranian authorities kill peaceful protesters, issuing a stark warning as unrest widens across Iran over soaring prices and a collapsing currency. In a Jan. 2 post on Truth Social, Trump said that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters,” the U.S. would “come to their rescue,” adding that the country was “locked and loaded and ready to go.” His remarks followed reports that multiple demonstrators had already been killed as protests turned violent in several provinces. Iran pushed back swiftly. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that U.S. interference would destabilize the region and harm American interests, while asserting Tehran distinguishes between protesters and “disruptive actors.” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed not to yield, as rights groups reported a sharp rise in arrests following days of unrest sparked by soaring inflation. Speaking in a recorded appearance on television on Saturday, Khamenei said the Islamic Republic “will not yield to the enemy” and said rioters should be “put in their place.” Rights group Hengaw reported at least seven deaths by late Jan. 1, including a 15-year-old boy in Lorestan province, and said dozens had been arrested. State-affiliated Fars News Agency acknowledged three protester deaths and injuries during clashes around a police station in Lorestan, while other fatalities were reported in western and central regions. Separately, Iranian media said a 21-year-old volunteer with the Basij paramilitary force died during a New Year’s Eve demonstration. The unrest — described as the most significant since nationwide protests in 2022 — began with shopkeepers demonstrating against a sharp currency slide and rapidly rising prices. Inflation topped 42% in December, and the rial lost roughly half its value against the dollar in 2025. Protesters cited empty refrigerators and shrinking incomes as grievances. Tehran’s leadership faces compounded pressure from longstanding Western sanctions and the economic fallout of mid-2025 Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and military infrastructure. Government officials have said they will engage in dialogue with trade unions and merchants, but past protest waves have often been met with heavy security measures and mass arrests.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities Friday and weekly change:

Equity Index	Closing Price Jan. 2	Difference from Dec. 31	% Difference from Dec. 31	WeeklyChange
Dow	48,382.39	+319.10	+0.66%	-0.7%
Nasdaq	23,235.63	-6.36	-0.03%	-1.6%
S&P 500	6,858.47	+12.97	+0.19%	-1.1%

—U.S. stocks rallied in 2025, with the Nasdaq leading with a 20.4% jump on the year, while the S&P 500 advanced 16.4% and the Dow climbed 13%.

AG MARKETS

—Cotton growers asked to signal 2026 acreage plans

Annual National Cotton Council survey to inform industry outlook and policy discussions ahead of 2026 season

The National Cotton Council has launched its annual survey of cotton growers to gauge 2026 planting intentions, a key early indicator used by the industry for market planning and policy deliberations.

Grower participation is voluntary, and individual responses will remain confidential, according to the Council. The survey is a long-standing tool used to help shape expectations around acreage, supply trends, and broader sector priorities.

Responses are due by Monday, Jan. 26, with a summary of results to be released publicly at the National Cotton Council’s 2026 Annual Meeting.

—Sorghum exports gain speed ahead of official data

Shipments and sales suggest stronger overseas demand than government reports currently show

U.S. sorghum exports are accelerating, with commercial shipments and sales running well ahead of what’s reflected in official government data, according to National Sorghum Producers. Market participants note that export flows are moving aggressively into overseas channels while federal reporting lags real-time activity by roughly two weeks.

By mid-December, an estimated 1.46 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. sorghum had already shipped in the current marketing year. Total export purchases and commitments are now nearing 2.0 MMT, a figure expected to rise as delayed transactions are captured in upcoming reports.

Much of the recent business has been booked to China and to destinations listed as “unknown,” which the trade widely interprets as China-bound cargoes. That demand is beginning to influence cash markets, with Gulf basis levels hovering near 106% of corn, signaling tighter export-channel pull.

What to watch: As reporting timelines catch up, additional export sales should surface in forthcoming government releases, providing a clearer picture of the pace of U.S. sorghum movement overseas.

—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:

Commodity	Contract Month	Close Jan. 2	Change vs Dec. 31	Weekly Change
Corn	March	$4.37 1/2	-2 3/4¢	-12 1/2¢
Soybeans	March	$10.45 3/4	-1¢	-26 3/4¢
Soybean Meal	March	$295.90	-$3.40	-$11.50
Soybean Oil	March	49.32¢	+74 pts	+12 pts
Wheat (SRW)	March	$5.06 1/2	-1/2¢	-12 1/2¢
Wheat (HRW)	March	$5.15	+1/4¢	-18.5¢
Wheat (Spring)	March	$5.7075	-3.25¢	-8.5¢
Cotton	March	64.01¢	-26 pts	-48 pts
Live Cattle	February	$236.00	+$4.40	+$6.35
Feeder Cattle	March	$352.95	+$7.625	+$12.525
Lean Hogs	February	$84.10	-$1.00	-42.5¢

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Friday: Oil slips into 2026 as oversupply concerns eclipse geopolitical risks

Brent and WTI open the year lower, with traders focused on ample supply and an expected OPEC+ pause

Oil prices edged lower on the first trading day of 2026, extending the steep losses logged last year as markets weighed persistent oversupply concerns against a crowded geopolitical backdrop.

Brent crude settled down 10 cents at $60.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped by the same amount to $57.32, reflecting a cautious start after both benchmarks posted their biggest annual declines since 2020 in 2025.

Despite elevated geopolitical tensions, price action suggested traders remain firmly focused on fundamentals and expectations that global supply will stay ample. Russia and Ukraine traded accusations of attacks on civilians on New Year’s Day, even as talks overseen by President Donald Trump aimed at ending the nearly four-year war continued. Ukraine has stepped up strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks in an effort to pressure Moscow’s war financing, but markets appeared to discount the risk of sustained supply disruptions.

Attention also remained on Venezuela after the Trump administration imposed new sanctions on four companies and related tankers tied to the country’s oil sector. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said his government was open to renewed dialogue with Washington, including potential U.S. investment in the oil industry, though exports remain constrained under existing enforcement.

Elsewhere, Trump warned Iran that the United States could support protesters if security forces escalate their response to ongoing unrest.

Even with those risks simmering, analysts noted that oil prices have stayed largely range-bound, signaling confidence that any supply interruptions would be limited.

Traders also monitored rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates linked to Yemen, which prompted flight suspensions at Aden’s airport, though the dispute has yet to materially affect oil flows.

The market’s focus now turns to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the group is widely expected to maintain its pause on output increases through the first quarter. Analysts say producer discipline, combined with continued stockpiling by China, could help establish a near-term floor for prices. Still, the broader outlook remains dominated by surplus expectations, with Brent and WTI having fallen nearly 20% in 2025 — marking Brent’s third consecutive year of losses.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Midterms in motion: the races set to shape Washington in 2026

According to Time magazine, a narrow House and Senate map, high-profile primaries, and key gubernatorial contests are setting up a volatile midterm cycle under President Donald Trump

As Time magazine reports, the 2026 midterm elections are already taking shape as a defining test for President Donald Trump and both parties’ governing coalitions. With Republicans controlling the White House and Congress by slim margins, Democrats are looking to replicate a familiar midterm pattern: gains by the party out of power driven by voter frustration and close margins.

Writing in Time, reporter Rebecca Schneid notes that Democrats are encouraged by a series of off-year wins in 2025 — including gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and ballot victories in states like California — while Republicans are counting on favorable redistricting and Trump’s continued influence over GOP primaries.

National landscape

All 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats will be contested in 2026. Republicans currently hold a three-seat edge in the Senate and a narrow House majority. While Democrats hope to flip control, Schneid points out that recent political realignment and aggressive redistricting have complicated the map, particularly in Republican-leaning states such as Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio.

The Cook Political Report, cited by Time, currently rates 18 House races as toss-ups, underscoring how little movement could determine control of Congress.

Key races

Kentucky GOP Primary

According to Time, Rep. Thomas Massie has drawn President Trump’s ire after pushing for the release of Epstein investigation files. Trump has endorsed Ed Gallrein, turning the May 19, 2026, primary into a test of Trump’s endorsement power —t hough not one likely to affect House control.

Arizona Governor

Time highlights Arizona as one of the most consequential gubernatorial races. Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking reelection in a state that has swung between parties in recent cycles. Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Biggs leads the Republican primary field, and early polling cited by Time shows a tight general election.

Maine Senate

In what Time calls Democrats’ most viable Senate pickup opportunity, Sen. Susan Collins (R) faces a contentious Democratic primary. The race pits establishment favorite Gov. Janet Mills against progressive challenger Graham Platner, whose past online posts have raised concerns about electability.

California Governor

With Gov. Gavin Newsom term-limited, Time describes the California governor’s race as a crowded Democratic free-for-all. Candidates include Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Xavier Becerra, with Republicans expected to trail in the general election but Democrats locked in a fierce primary.

New York’s 17th District

Time flags Rep. Mike Lawler’s suburban swing district as one of the House GOP’s most vulnerable defenses. Despite Democratic presidential wins in the district, Lawler has proven resilient, and Democrats are fielding a crowded slate of challengers.

Arizona House Battlegrounds

Beyond the governor’s race, Time points to Arizona’s 6th District, held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani, and District 1, being vacated by Rep. David Schweikert, as two of the most evenly divided House races in the country.

North Carolina Senate

Finally, Time highlights North Carolina as a marquee Senate race after Sen. Thom Tillis announced his retirement. Democrat Roy Cooper is expected to face Trump-endorsed Michael Whatley in a contest likely to draw national attention and spending.

Why it matters: As Time frames it, the 2026 midterms will function as a referendum on President Trump’s second-term agenda, redistricting battles, and voter tolerance for unified Republican control. With margins this thin, a handful of races could determine not only Congress — but the trajectory of federal policy heading into the late 2020s.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

—Leaked dietary guidelines graphic raises alarm for grain-based foods — but changes are still possible

A draft visual circulating ahead of the 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines suggests a sharp downgrade for grains, triggering concern across agriculture and food policy circles, even as officials caution the image is not final

As Washington prepares for the release of the 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, a draft companion graphic quietly circulating among policy insiders has become a flashpoint for controversy — particularly within the grain sector.

According to multiple industry and nutrition-policy sources, the draft visual represents a dramatic departure from the familiar MyPlate framework, sharply reducing the prominence of grain-based foods and visually elevating vegetables and protein. While the written guidelines have not yet been released, the image alone has fueled concern that grains — including both whole and enriched products — are being repositioned as secondary or even optional in the federal definition of a healthy diet.

Importantly, officials and close observers stress that this graphic is not final and could still change before the guidelines are formally issued.

What the draft graphic appears to signal. Those who have seen the circulating image describe several notable shifts:

• Grains occupy a substantially smaller portion of the plate compared with the current MyPlate model

• Refined and enriched grains appear visually marginalized, with little differentiation from discretionary foods

• Vegetables and protein dominate the visual hierarchy, reinforcing a “low-grain” eating pattern

•The overall framing implies grains are less central to daily nutrition than in prior federal guidance

Even without explicit language, visuals matter. Nutrition educators, schools, and federal food programs rely heavily on graphics to translate policy into practice — often more than dense written text.

Why grain groups are concerned. The Dietary Guidelines are jointly issued by USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services, and they directly influence:

• School lunch and breakfast standards

• WIC food packages

• Military and institutional feeding programs

• SNAP-Ed nutrition education

• State and local public-health messaging

A visual downgrade for grains could ripple quickly through these systems. Grain organizations warn that even if the final written guidance is more balanced, a powerful image can drive restrictive interpretations, leading to fewer grain offerings in schools and greater stigma around staple foods like bread, pasta, and cereal.

The scientific and policy fault line. The draft graphic reflects a broader tension within nutrition science and policy:

• Some public-health advocates argue Americans consume too many refined grains and should shift toward vegetables, legumes, and less processed foods.

• Grain and nutrition scientists counter that enriched grains remain a major source of folic acid, iron, and B vitamins, especially for low-income populations, and that whole grains are already under-consumed.

Critics of the draft image say it collapses important distinctions, visually penalizing the entire grain category rather than encouraging substitution toward whole-grain options.

Political timing matters. The controversy arrives amid heightened scrutiny of ultra-processed foods, rising food prices, and renewed debate over federal nutrition standards. In that context, agriculture groups worry the graphic sends a policy signal that could justify tighter procurement rules or further restrictions on grain-based foods in federally funded programs.

A key caveat: this is not final. Despite the concern, multiple sources emphasize that graphics often change late in the Dietary Guidelines process, especially when stakeholder feedback intensifies. USDA and HHS routinely revise visual tools to balance nutrition science, affordability, and implementation realities.

What to watch in the coming months:

• Whether grains regain a more proportional role in the final image

• How clearly whole and enriched grains are distinguished

• Whether nutrient density and food affordability are reflected in the final guidance

For now, the circulating graphic represents a warning sign — not a settled outcome. But for grain producers, processors, and nutrition advocates, it has already sharpened the stakes ahead of what could be one of the most consequential Dietary Guidelines updates in decades.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Another Atmospheric River bringing heavy rain with the risk of flash flooding as well as heavy mountain snow to California this weekend… …Clipper-like system will bring snow to the Upper Great Lakes late Sunday… …Much above average temperatures stretch from the Interior West to the Plains and South while below average temperatures continue from the Midwest to the Northeast.