Trump/USDA Options Expected Re: Beef Supply
USDA partially reopens FSA to release $3 billion farm funding frozen by shutdown
Link: Trump Administration to Release $3 Billion in Farm Funding Frozen by Shutdown
Link: Hassett Highlights AI Productivity, Tariff Revenue, and Energy Boom
Link: New Coalition Pushes for National Ingredient Transparency
Link: Trump Casts Doubt on Xi Meeting as White House Pulls Back on Putin Talks
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 17
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 17
Today’s Updates:
UP FRONT
— USDA to partially reopen county FSA offices Thursday; $3 bil. to be paid
— CRP authority expired, but payments still authorized
— Republican Senators warn Trump against Argentine beef imports; USTR comments
— USDA: Rollins committed to rebuilding nation’s cattle herd
— Lawmakers consider extending stopgap funding into December
— Trump: U.S. will do well in tariff negotiation with China
— Lula, Trump to meet Sunday in Malaysia
— USDA’s South Building among federal sites slated for sale
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Gold tumbles as rally shows signs of exhaustion
— Car payments fall behind as delinquencies climb among subprime borrowers
— Average cost of a family health insurance plan tops $27,000
— “Exorbitant pillage”: Lael Brainard warns U.S. dollar supremacy faces internal risks
AG MARKETS
— China races to salvage corn harvest after torrential rains
— Agriculture markets yesterday
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices push higher Wednesday on sanctions risks, trade hopes
— Oil prices rebounded Tuesday as market reassesses supply glut fears
— U.S. to begin refilling Strategic Petroleum Reserve
— BLM seeks input on 2025 NPR-A oil and gas lease sales
TRADE POLICY
— Japan’s Takaichi to court Trump with U.S. pickups, soybeans and LNG purchases
— U.S. may slash tariffs on India in emerging trade deal
— Sen. Cassidy signals “foreign pollution fee” as tariff backup plan
CONGRESS
— Arizona Attorney General sues to force swearing-in of Rep.-Elect Grijalva
— Senate Ag Committee clears grain standards, forestry, and lands bills
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Republicans’ purple-state problem: Charlie Cook’s warning on GOP brand
TRANSPORTATION / LOGISTICS
— BIMCO drafting clause on China’s new port fees
BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR
— Farmers warn Trump of $5 billion hit without more migrant visas
WEATHER
— Tropical Storm Melissa strengthening toward Caribbean
— NWS outlook: Great Lakes showers, southern Plains storms, Texas heat
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Oct. 22, 2025
Up front •USDA to reopen FSA offices. County offices resume limited operations Thursday to issue $3 billion in delayed farm payments.• CRP authority lapse clarified. USDA’s ability to operate new Conservation Reserve contracts has expired, but existing payments will resume once offices reopen.• Senators push back on Argentine beef imports. Farm-state Republicans warn Trump against undercutting U.S. cattle producers. USDA today is expected to unveil some beef supply actions.• Gold plunges, but analysts stay bullish. Gold saw its sharpest one-day drop since 2013, dragging mining stocks lower, though market strategists say the broader rally remains intact.• Beyond Meat frenzy. A meme stock-style surge has lifted Beyond Meat shares nearly 1,300% in recent days.• U.S. pressures Argentina amid China ties. Washington is leveraging Wall Street’s role in Argentina’s bailout to pull Buenos Aires away from Beijing.• China’s export resilience. China is still sending about $1 billion of goods daily to the U.S., reinforcing Xi’s leverage ahead of renewed trade talks.• Trump sends mixed signals on China. The president said Beijing wants to discuss the looming 157% tariffs, with USTR Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set to meet China’s He Lifeng in Malaysia.• U.S./India trade deal near. Washington and New Delhi are finalizing a pact that would cut U.S. tariffs on Indian exports to 15–16% while India trims Russian oil imports and opens its market to more U.S. corn and soymeal.•Japan’s new PM preps Trump package. Sanae Takaichi will present U.S. pickup, soybean, and LNG purchases in Tokyo next week to reinforce the alliance.• BIMCO drafts clause on China port fees. The shipping body moves to clarify who pays new “Special Port Fees” on U.S.-linked vessels.•Congress eyes December CR. Lawmakers are considering extending the continuing resolution into December to avoid another shutdown fight.•DOE starts to refill oil reserve. The Energy Department will buy 1 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve under new funding. —USDA to partially reopen county FSA offices ThursdayRollins says move will release $3 billion in safety-net and conservation payments USDA will reopen county Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices on Thursday, Oct. 23, with two staff members per office to restart payments under the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and disaster relief payments that were delayed earlier this month due to the government shutdown. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the reopening will allow about $3 billion in payments to flow to farmers, including roughly $1.8 billion in annual Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) rental payments that were also delayed. Staff will additionally process marketing assistance loans (MALs) — which allow producers to use newly harvested crops as collateral — and begin accepting applications for farm operating loans and other services. Rollins clarified that the payments being released are routine USDA safety-net and conservation funds, not part of the new farm aid package the administration is preparing in response to China’s trade practices. “Yes, we are putting the package together right now,” Rollins said. “We are preparing to announce that particular package for those that have been hurt under China’s unwillingness to abide by the Phase One agreement.” USDA officials noted that while some have characterized these payments as “aid,” they are standard program disbursements that farmers would normally have received earlier this month. —CRP authority expired, but payments still authorizedUSDA’s ability to operate the Conservation Reserve Program lapsed on Sept. 30, but payments can still be made once offices reopen The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is among several farm programs whose operating authority expired at the end of Fiscal Year 2025 on Sept. 30. While the government shutdown has halted Farm Service Agency (FSA) operations until county offices reopen later this week, the lapse in CRP authority has limited what USDA can do under the program. FSA offices have been unable to process new CRP offers, approve contracts or revisions that would increase enrolled acreage, or request Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) activities related to unapproved contracts. However, USDA retains authority to make annual rental, cost-share, signup incentive, and practice incentive payments. Those payments were delayed due to the shutdown—not because of the lapse in program authority—and are expected to resume when FSA offices reopen. —Republican Senators warn Trump against Argentine beef importsFarm-state lawmakers caution that efforts to lower prices could undercut U.S. ranchers Republican Senators were invited to the White House on Tuesday for a lunch featuring cheeseburgers, as President Donald Trump commended them for their unity on the government shutdown and progress on administration nominees. But the event also turned tense when farm-state lawmakers raised alarms over Trump’s remarks suggesting the U.S. might import beef from Argentina to help bring down consumer prices. Trump told senators he was concerned about both ranchers and consumers but offered little reassurance. “I think the administration’s well aware of the issues we have,” said Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) after the meeting. Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) added that Trump urged lawmakers to propose “a plan that shows our ability to bring down consumer prices with American products and American beef and I’ll endorse it wholeheartedly.” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins downplayed the idea of Argentine imports, emphasizing that any such purchases “wouldn’t be significant from the U.S. point of view” and would form only a small part of a broader effort to boost domestic beef production. Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer commented on Argentine beef imports. “I do not see a world where there’s some huge, you know, millions and millions of metrics tons flooding into this market,” Greer told CNBC. Greer said he’s “heard there’s been some controversy” about Argentine beef imports and added that Republican senators have been calling him about the issue. The U.S. needs to import “a lot of beef” to supply a yearly consumption of 12 million metric tons, he detailed. President Trump mentioned beef imports as a way to get prices down, but he’s also getting foreign market access for US beef, Greer said. The exchange highlighted the political and policy challenges facing the administration as it seeks to balance inflation concerns with protecting U.S. cattle producers — and the risks inherent in intervening in market supply. —USDA: Rollins committed to rebuilding nation’s cattle herd Details of multipoint program could come today A USDA spokesperson said: “President Trump and his cabinet are working every day to lower prices for consumers. While prices for other proteins such as eggs, pork and chicken have declined in recent months, beef prices remain elevated. This is due to the perfect storm of sustained increase in consumer demand for beef coupled with a prolonged decrease in the supply of live cattle. Building back the herd will take time, but Secretary Rollins is committed to reduce risk for cattle producers, deliver robust disaster relief to cattle country, and support new and beginning ranchers across the country. These actions, coupled with President Trump’s work to secure lasting markets for beef producers abroad, sends a strong message to American cattle producers — raise more beef and rebuild the herd.” —Lawmakers consider extending stopgap funding into DecemberCongress weighs shifting government funding deadline amid slow progress on FY 2026 spending bills A growing number of lawmakers are signaling support for adjusting the continuing resolution (CR) deadline to keep the government open into December, rather than the House-passed date of Nov. 21. Democrats had proposed a shorter extension through Oct. 31, but momentum appears to be building for a longer measure. Proponents of the December option argue it is increasingly unlikely that Congress can finalize Fiscal Year 2026 spending plans before late November. Any change would require the House to reconvene and approve the revision — a step Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has indicated he is open to taking. Meanwhile, some members still favor retaining the original Nov. 21 deadline to maintain pressure for timely appropriations negotiations. —Trump: U.S. will do well in tariff negotiation with ChinaPresident signals optimism as Beijing seeks relief from steep import duties President Donald Trump said Tuesday that China is eager to discuss the “157% tariff” it now faces on exports to the U.S., suggesting that talks may soon resume between the world’s two largest economies. “It’s a little higher than they thought, and we’re doing very well,” Trump told Republican senators during a White House meeting. “I think we’re going to do well in that negotiation.” The president’s comments come as Chinese officials seek to ease the economic pressure created by Washington’s sweeping trade levies, which have sharply increased costs for Chinese goods entering the U.S. since the administration’s April tariff expansion. While no formal meeting date has been announced, Trump’s upbeat tone signals potential movement ahead of the planned discussions between U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Markets will be watching for any sign of progress (including whether Trump and Xi actually meet) that could temper the escalating trade conflict, which has already strained global supply chains and weighed on business confidence. —Lula, Trump to meet Sunday in MalaysiaLeaders aim to reset Brazil/U.S. ties ahead of ASEAN Summit Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Donald Trump are slated to hold a bilateral meeting on Sunday in Malaysia, coinciding with the opening of the ASEAN summit, according to a report by O Globo. Diplomats familiar with the talks said the exact meeting time has not yet been finalized. Officials in Brasília view the encounter as potentially marking a “new chapter” in Brazil/U.S. relations, paving the way for renewed trade negotiations and a more consistent political dialogue. The personal meeting follows a recent phone call between the two leaders and an earlier diplomatic session in Washington between Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, a key figure in Trump’s foreign policy orbit. Lula’s trip also includes scheduled meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other Asian leaders, underscoring Brazil’s broader effort to engage both major Western and Asian partners ahead of the ASEAN summit’s formal sessions.—USDA’s South Building among federal sites slated for saleGSA’s brief listing signaled the Trump administration’s drive to unload major Washington properties despite the shutdown pause The year began with a surprise from the General Services Administration (GSA), which briefly posted — then removed — a sweeping list of federal properties in the Greater Washington area slated for disposal. The move underscored the Trump administration’s push to sell off significant portions of government-owned real estate. That effort has only gathered pace as the year has gone on, with several sites already hitting the market. Even though the ongoing government shutdown has temporarily frozen GSA’s property disposal activities, the Washington Business Journal reports that the pause is unlikely to derail the momentum already underway. Here is what the Washington Business Journal reported about USDA: Agriculture South BuildingA massive federal complex whose potential disposal officials are now second-guessing  Aerial shot of D.C. looking over the USDA headquarters toward the Washington Monument. Getty Images/Hal BergmanAddress: 1400 Independence Ave. SW one block from Forrestal just south of the National MallSize: 2.1 million square feetDescription: The South building comprises part of the USDA’s headquarters, along with the adjoining James L. Whitten Federal Building facing the National Mall.State of play: “The building is actively being considered for disposal by the Public Buildings Reform Board, while USDA in July announced plans to move more than 2,500 employees out of Greater Washington, in the process vacating the South Building. The agency intends to return the property to the GSA. Federal building officials are now, considering significant renovations completed at the Southwest D.C. office in recent years, weighing how the government could retain ownership of at least half of the massive property. One possible solution being considered is to bifurcate the building, slicing off the unrenovated portions for disposal — either for sale or ground lease — and consolidating government tenants into its renovated wings. Four of the South Building’s seven wings — encompassing about half of its entire square footage — have undergone “major renovations” performed in consultation with D.C. architect Shalom Baranes Associates over roughly 15 years. The South Building still has about $1.3 billion in deferred maintenance and has an average daily occupancy of less than 1,900 people for a building that can house over 6,000 employees, USDA said in July. Another complication is that the South Building is connected to the 390,000-square-foot Whitten Building by two pedestrian bridges over Independence Avenue and the two share a utility system. USDA said it plans to “revisit utilization and functions” in the Whitten Building, which would remain the agency’s headquarters, considering its planned move out of the D.C. area.” |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings. In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong -0.9%. China -0.1%. India closed. In Europe, at midday, London +0.9%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Oct. 21 | Point Difference from Oct. 20 | % Difference from Oct. 20 |
| Dow | 46,924.74 | +218.16 | +0.47% |
| Nasdaq | 22,953.67 | -36.88 | -0.16% |
| S&P 500 | 6,735.35 | +0.22 | +0.00% |
—Gold tumbles as rally shows signs of exhaustion
Sevens Report: Overbought conditions and a stronger dollar spark sharp selloff in precious metals
Gold’s months-long rally abruptly reversed Tuesday as investors rushed to take profits after prices hit new record highs, according to the Sevens Report. Futures for the metal fell 5.67% while silver dropped 7.08%, marking one of the steepest single-day pullbacks of the year.
Analysts at Sevens Report wrote that the “overbought market dynamics and overcrowded long positioning amplified a wave of profit-taking” ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later in the week.
The decline came even as broader risk sentiment held steady — typically a headwind for safe-haven assets — while a firmer U.S. dollar “presented a mechanical headwind on precious metals.”
Despite President Trump’s comments that a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi “may not happen,” which briefly unsettled equity markets, the newsletter noted that even this “failed to prompt a material renewed safe-haven bid” in gold.
Still, Sevens Report emphasized that fundamentals had not changed significantly. The authors said the selloff reflected an “unsustainable melt-up rally” after gold surged more than 30%, or roughly $1,000 per ounce, in just six weeks. They added that “greed emotion had begun to completely dominate the metals market.”
Technically, Sevens Report sees short-term resistance near $4,400 per ounce and critical long-term support around $3,500. The team concluded: “Any material deterioration in trade tensions or economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown could lead to a squeezy snap-back rally.”
—Car payments fall behind as delinquencies climb among subprime borrowers
Rising car loan delinquencies spark concern over household financial strain
A growing number of lower-income Americans are falling behind on their car payments, according to new data from Fitch Ratings. The share of subprime borrowers — those with credit scores below 670 — who are at least 60 days delinquent on their car loans has doubled since 2021, reaching 6.43%, the second-highest level since the early 1990s.
While most prime borrowers remain current, vehicle repossessions are now at their highest rate since the 2008–2009 Great Recession. Because car loans are typically among the last payments consumers skip, economists warn that the rising delinquency trend could be an early warning sign of deeper financial distress if the job market weakens and layoffs increase.
—Average cost of a family health insurance plan is now $27,000. The cost of health insurance is rising faster than inflation, and economists and business leaders said it could bite into employment and wage growth. That’s a 6% increase from the year before, and builds on two prior years of 7% gains.
—Exorbitant pillage: Can the U.S. dollar survive the U.S. government?
Lael Brainard warns that the Trump administration’s attacks on fiscal discipline, institutional independence, and global commitments could turn America’s “exorbitant privilege” into a self-inflicted liability
Lael Brainard, former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve and Director of the National Economic Council, warns that President Donald Trump’s second-term policies threaten to “crack the foundations” of U.S. dollar dominance — a position the United States has held for more than seven decades.
Brainard opens the item in Foreign Affairs by recounting that roughly 90% of all foreign exchange transactions involve the U.S. dollar and nearly 60% of global central bank reserves are held in dollars. This dominance, she writes, gives Washington “powerful tools for sanctioning its adversaries” and the “ability to borrow expansively and at relatively low cost.” But she cautions that these privileges depend on strong institutions — an independent Federal Reserve, credible statistics, and respect for international commitments — all of which she says are being eroded.
“The Trump administration is attacking the institutional foundations that underpin the dollar’s status,” Brainard writes. “It is testing the bounds of executive power… and attempting to weaken the independence of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy authority.”
Brainard cites the administration’s July 2025 spending bill, which is expected to “astronomically increase the U.S. national debt,” alongside unilateral tariff hikes to offset tax revenue losses. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has claimed tariffs could yield “several hundred billion dollars a year of revenue,” but Brainard warns such measures undermine confidence in U.S. commitments. “Because the administration also imposed tariffs without regard for existing U.S. trade agreements,” she notes, “it has raised doubts about the credibility of the government’s international economic commitments.”
She also highlights the risk posed by interference in monetary policy. Trump has “criticized the Federal Reserve for not lowering rates fast enough,” threatened to fire Chair Jerome Powell, and even removed a governor without due process — all unprecedented moves. Brainard writes that these steps “amount to an unprecedented attack on the independence of the institution,” warning that investors will demand higher yields if they lose faith in the Fed’s autonomy. “If investors believed the Federal Reserve would prioritize debt management over its statutory mandate to fight inflation,” she explains, “they would demand higher yields on Treasury securities… and federal interest payments would go up—not down.”
She connects these governance challenges to broader fiscal risks: with U.S. debt near 100 percent of GDP and set to climb by $4 trillion over a decade, rising borrowing costs could magnify the strain. The dollar’s strength, Brainard stresses, depends not only on economic might but also on “the strength of U.S. institutions and norms.”
In closing, she warns that while no rival currency yet matches the dollar’s global role, Washington cannot take its dominance for granted. “It is folly,” she writes, “to bet on the alternatives to the dollar being so inadequate that Washington can continue to flout long-established norms and commitments without consequence.” If current trends persist, she cautions, “Americans will pay the price.”
Upshot: Brainard’s essay is both an economic and institutional warning: the dollar’s global supremacy, long considered secure, could erode from within. Her central message — that the greatest threat to the dollar may now come from Washington itself — is a pointed critique of fiscal excess, political interference, and the abandonment of norms that historically safeguarded U.S. financial credibility.
| AG MARKETS |
—China races to salvage corn harvest after torrential rains
Epic rainfall rots northern crops, forcing emergency grain-drying aid as imports collapse
Epic rains across northern China have waterlogged key corn-growing regions, leaving crops to rot in the fields and raising concerns about food security, Bloomberg reports. Provinces like Henan and Shandong — responsible for roughly 30% of national output — have endured the longest and heaviest rainy season in six decades. Some fields are too soaked to harvest, and corn already gathered risks mold.
Corn imports have plunged 93% this year to under 1 million tons as China leans more heavily on domestic production, leaving little buffer against losses. Farmers are selling quickly to avoid spoilage, pushing Henan prices down over 3% this month. Beijing has allocated 484 million yuan ($68 million) for grain drying and field drainage, while a 60-day campaign is underway to aid winter wheat planting in flood-hit areas. Other crops, including soybeans and peanuts, have also been affected.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Oct. 21 | Change from Oct. 20 |
| Corn | December | $4.19 3/4 | ↓ 3 1/2¢ |
| Soybeans | November | $10.30 3/4 | ↓ 1¢ |
| Soybean Meal | December | $286.90 | ↑ $1.90 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 50.65¢ | ↓ 66 points |
| Wheat (SRW) | December | $5.00 1/4 | ↓ 4 1/2¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | December | $4.85 | ↓ 5¢ |
| Spring Wheat | December | $5.44 3/4 | ↓ 3 3/4¢ |
| Cotton | December | 64.42¢ | ↑ 26 points |
| Live Cattle | December | $245.425 | ↑ $1.775 |
| Feeder Cattle | November | $373.475 | ↑ 80¢ |
| Lean Hogs | December | $83.275 | ↑ $1.20 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices pushed higher Wednesday, buoyed by sanctions-related supply risks and hopes of a U.S./China trade deal. Investors also digested news that the U.S. is seeking oil for delivery to its strategic reserves. Brent crude futures rose 1.6% to $62.28 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced 1.7% to $58.19.
Oil also jumped on a report that the U.S. and India are nearing a trade deal that could see the South Asian nation gradually reduce imports of Russian crude, boosting demand for alternative supplies.
Of note: The best place to observe the shift taking place in global oil markets is at sea. More than 1 billion barrels have been amassed on the world’s tanker fleet, according to consultant Vortexa.
—Oil prices rebounded Tuesday as market reassesses supply glut fears
Traders eye U.S./China trade talks and inventory data as Brent, WTI edge higher
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, rebounding from five-month lows as investors reassessed fears of an oversupplied market and awaited clarity on trade negotiations between the U.S. and China — the world’s two largest oil consumers.
Brent crude futures climbed 31 cents, 0.5%, to settle at $61.32 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November delivery, which expired Tuesday, closed 30 cents higher at $57.82. Both benchmarks had hit their lowest levels since early May on Monday amid concerns over record U.S. output and OPEC+ supply hikes.
The U.S./China trade dispute continues to cloud the demand outlook.
Market structure also showed signs of weakness, with both Brent and WTI curves shifting into contango, signaling ample near-term supply and softening demand. The International Energy Agency has forecast a surplus next year, though some analysts say the market remains oversupplied but not in a glut, expecting prices to stabilize near current levels unless trade tensions escalate.
A preliminary Reuters poll indicated U.S. crude stockpiles likely rose last week.
Adding a potential buffer, the U.S. plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, using funds from the Trump administration’s recent energy initiative (see next item).
—U.S. to begin refilling SPR as prices slide
Energy Dept. to buy 1 million barrels for Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The Trump administration will purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to begin refilling the nation’s depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), taking advantage of oil prices near their lowest levels in four years. The Energy Dept. said it will seek deliveries for December and January, using part of the $171 million allocated under President Donald Trump’s tax and spending law to fund crude purchases, an agency official said, according to Bloomberg.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has dropped roughly 30% since its January peak, trading near $58 a barrel — its lowest since 2021.
Trump has repeatedly pledged to rebuild the SPR, which can hold up to 700 million barrels but currently contains about 408 million. The reserve was heavily drawn down during the Biden administration to curb surging gasoline prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with about 180 million barrels released in 2022.
According to the Energy Dept., bids for the new 1 million–barrel purchase are due by 11 a.m. CT on Oct. 28. The crude will be delivered to the Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana under spot-price-indexed contracts.
—BLM seeks input on 2025 NPR-A oil and gas lease sales
First lease sale since 2019 launches under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has opened a call for nominations for all unleased tracts in the upcoming 2025 National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPR-A) oil and gas lease sale — the first since 2019 and the first under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. BLM is requesting that nominations and public comments be submitted by November 21, including feedback on tracts that may warrant “special concern and analysis.”
The notice (link) marks a standard preliminary step in the leasing process, signaling a potential restart of federal oil and gas activity in the NPR-A after years of policy shifts and environmental reviews.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Japan’s Takaichi to court Trump with U.S. pickups, soybeans and LNG purchases
Tokyo seeks to strengthen alliance as new premier faces early diplomatic test
Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing a goodwill purchase package of U.S. pickups, soybeans, and liquefied natural gas to present to President Donald Trump during trade and security talks in Tokyo next week, according to Reuters. Two government sources told Reuters that the package — designed to please Washington and shore up Japan’s security alliance — will not include any new defense spending target, despite Trump’s push for allies to “do more.”
“The alliance with the United States is the cornerstone of Japan’s foreign and security policy,” Takaichi said at her inaugural press conference on Tuesday.
Trump’s visit marks his first trip to Japan since his re-election, following a $550 billion investment agreement struck by former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in exchange for lower U.S. auto tariffs.
Sweeteners for Trump: Pickups and soybeans. The package will include purchases of Ford F-150 pickup trucks, an idea Trump himself touted in August, and expanded imports of U.S. soybeans — a key request from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The Reuters report noted that Tokyo may reduce its Brazilian soybean purchases to accommodate more U.S. imports, which already account for about 70% of Japan’s soybean supply. While the F-150s are too large for most Japanese roads, one source said the trucks could be repurposed as snowplows.
“It would be premature to comment on any discussions during President Trump’s visit,” a Japanese government spokesperson said when asked about the proposed deals.
Investment and energy commitments. Tokyo also plans to boost imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas, though not yet from the Alaska pipeline project favored by Trump. Officials will present a list of candidate investment projects tied to the $550 billion deal, which both governments will review before Trump makes final selections.
Takaichi has criticized the prior pact as overly generous to Washington but signaled she will honor it, telling aides that “even with a one-to-nine profit split, if the risk is low, it can still make business sense,” according to another Reuters source.
Defense posture and regional strategy. While Japan won’t set a new numerical defense target, Takaichi is expected to express willingness to accelerate defense buildup beyond 2% of GDP by 2027. She has directed her team to revisit Japan’s 2022 security strategy documents — the framework for the country’s largest military expansion since World War II.
Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi underscored the shift in tone, telling Reuters, “It’s not about the amount or the ratio to GDP. What matters is the substance of our defense capabilities.”
Trump will arrive in Japan on Monday and depart the following day after meeting both Takaichi and Emperor Naruhito. The two leaders are then scheduled to travel to Malaysia for an ASEAN summit and onward to South Korea for the APEC meeting, where trade and defense coordination will remain front and center.
—U.S. may slash tariffs on India in emerging trade deal
Talks signal major thaw as Trump and Modi near possible ASEAN announcement
The United States and India are nearing a trade agreement that could dramatically lower U.S. tariffs on Indian exports to around 15–16% from the current 50%, according to a report by Mint cited by Bloomberg’s Dan Strumpf.
U.S. corn, meal included. Under the proposed deal, New Delhi would gradually scale back imports of Russian oil and open its market to more non-genetically modified American corn and soymeal, the report said. The potential breakthrough could be announced when President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet during the ASEAN Leaders Summit in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 26–28.
The talks mark a notable easing in trade tensions. Trump’s administration had imposed the 50% tariffs last month in response to India’s continued purchases of Russian crude and what Washington called restrictive trade barriers to U.S. goods — the steepest tariff rate in Asia.
At a White House Diwali celebration, Trump told guests that Modi had assured him India would “wind down” Russian oil purchases, hinting that a tariff rollback could follow. Modi confirmed their phone call on X but did not elaborate on details.
While India’s government has not publicly committed to cutting Russian imports, state-run refiners have reportedly begun reducing Moscow crude purchases, and Reliance Industries has shifted toward Middle Eastern suppliers. Negotiators from both countries made “solid progress” in talks held in Washington last week, according to an Indian official quoted by Mint.
If finalized, the deal could restore momentum in U.S./India trade relations, which have soured since the tariff escalation but remain critical for both economies.
—Sen. Cassidy signals “foreign pollution fee” as backup for tariff strategy
If International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)-based tariffs fail, a carbon-border measure may take its place
In a recent interview with Inside U.S. Trade, Bill Cassidy (R-La.) outlined a contingency plan: if the U.S. legal basis for broad tariffs under the IEEPA collapses, the administration and Congress could pivot to implementing what he describes as a “foreign pollution fee.”
Cassidy explained that a looming decision by the Supreme Court of the United States on the legality of President Donald Trump’s sweeping emergency-powers tariffs under the IEEPA may force a shift in trade strategy. If IEEPA tariffs are struck down or substantially limited, the so-called “foreign pollution fee” — essentially a border levy on imports from high-emission producers — could serve as Plan B.
The fee would target energy- and emissions-intensive products (such as steel, aluminum, cement, glass, certain battery and hydrogen inputs) from foreign producers whose carbon footprint exceeds U.S. equivalents.
Cassidy has framed this policy not only as environmental but also as economic and national-security oriented: protecting U.S. manufacturers, leveling the playing field, and countering countries with lower environmental standards.
Why is this important? The IEEPA tariffs, which rely on presidential emergency powers, face significant legal risk — if the court rules against their broad use, many of the current tariff authorities could vanish or shrink.
By shifting to a “foreign pollution fee,” policymakers could embed their trade response in statutory legislation rather than executive orders, potentially making it less vulnerable to legal challenges.
The model aligns with the broader global trend of carbon-border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) — where countries tax imports based on embedded carbon emissions — as seen in the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. For industries such as steel, aluminum, cement, solar components and hydrogen inputs, this shift signals a potential change in the calculus of trade, compliance and supply-chain strategy.
What would the foreign pollution fee look like? Based on legislative drafts and analysis:
• It would impose a fee or tariff on imported goods whose production emits more greenhouse gases than comparable U.S. goods.
• It may adopt a tiered structure: completely exempting imports that are within a small margin of U.S. emissions intensity, increasing fees for higher-emission imports.
• There would likely be waiver or exemption mechanisms — for example when a country has “sufficient domestic production,” participates in or agrees to a partnership, or when imports originate under certain treaties or trade agreements.
• The policy would lean heavily on monitoring, reporting, and verifying the carbon intensity of foreign manufacturing — a technical and administrative challenge.
Challenges
• Legal risk: Even a well-structured foreign pollution fee may face trade-law challenges at the World Trade Organization (WTO) for discrimination against foreign producers or non-justifiable trade barriers.
• Data/verification: Measuring the emissions embedded in imported goods (by product, facility, country) is complex and may require extensive data collection and international cooperation.
Economic impact: Some U.S. import-reliant industries or supply chains could face increased costs, which may ripple to consumers or downstream manufacturers.
Diplomatic fallout: Trading partners may view the fee as protectionist disguised as climate policy — risking retaliation or trade disputes.
Domestic credibility: Critics note that the proposed fee targets imports but does not mandate a domestic carbon price on U.S. producers — which raises questions about comprehensiveness and fairness.
Bottom Line: Sen. Cassidy’s remarks suggest that U.S. trade policy is preparing a fallback: if emergency tariff authorities under IEEPA collapse, Congress and the administration are readying a statutory carbon-border fee as an alternative. For U.S. manufacturers, foreign trade relations, and climate-policy intersect, this could mark a significant shift — combining trade, environment and industrial strategy in one move.
| CONGRESS |
—Arizona Attorney General sues to force swearing-in of Rep.-Elect Grijalva
Speaker Johnson says the lawsuit is “baseless” and vows to swear her in after recess
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes has filed a lawsuit seeking to compel House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to swear in Democratic Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva, who won her special election in Arizona’s 7th District on Sept. 23. Grijalva has yet to be seated in the House.
Speaker Johnson has refused to administer the oath of office, stating that he will induct Grijalva once the House returns from its recess. Johnson dismissed the suit as “baseless,” maintaining that the timing of the swearing-in remains within his discretion.
—Senate Ag Committee clears grain standards, forestry, and lands bills
Bipartisan vote renews U.S. Grain Standards Act, advances Fix Our Forests bill and major land package
The Senate Ag Committee on Tuesday approved three major legislative items: a reauthorization of the U.S. Grain Standards Act (HR 4550), the Fix Our Forests Act (S 1462), and a package of 13 land bills — the largest such group approved by the committee in decades.
The committee unanimously passed the grain standards and land bills by roll call votes of 23–0, while the Fix Our Forests Act was approved 18–5 following partisan debate on Democratic amendments.
The U.S. Grain Standards Reauthorization Act of 2025 restores key authorities that expired on September 30, including appropriations, fee collection, administrative cost caps, and the advisory committee. It also promotes technological advances in grain grading. The bill has broad support from farm and commodity groups, including the National Grain and Feed Association, American Farm Bureau Federation, National Corn Growers Association, and National Association of Wheat Growers.
Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) backed the forestry bill despite differences over amendments, saying she hopes the rejected proposals’ goals can still be addressed. The Fix Our Forests Act, led by Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), and Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.), aims to streamline federal land management, prevent catastrophic wildfires, strengthen public-private partnerships, and reduce litigation delays.
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Public Lands Council praised the forestry bill’s passage. Both the Fix Our Forests and Grain Standards bills have already cleared the House.
Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) hailed the bipartisan approval, saying, “I’m proud to support common-sense solutions to ensure the U.S. Forest Service lands are managed efficiently, create recreation opportunities and support local communities.”
The 13 approved land bills affect nine states and include measures such as the Virginia Wilderness Additions Act, Shenandoah Mountain Act, Talladega National Forest boundary modification, and Lake Winnibigoshish Land Exchange Act, among others.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Republicans’ purple problem
Charlie Cook warns GOP faces growing peril in swing states as Trump brand dominates party identity
Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook argues in a National Journal article that while Democrats remain publicly fixated on their internal divisions, Republicans face an equally dangerous challenge they appear unwilling to confront — a deepening weakness among independents and in purple states. “Denial is more than a river that flows into the Mediterranean,” Cook quips, warning that the GOP’s brand has become “consumed by or conflated with that of Trump and his Make America Great Again movement.”
Cook writes that the Republican Party has effectively “subordinated its identity” to President Donald Trump, a strategy that works in deep-red districts but becomes a political “anchor” elsewhere. In his view, once Trump reaches his constitutional limit for reelection, “the GOP’s political universe loses its center of gravity.”
The data Cook lays out are stark: since Trump’s election, Republicans have lost 17 of 21 Senate races in the seven key purple states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Even with recent GOP wins by Sens. Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) and Dave McCormick (Pennsylvania), Cook calls the overall record “sobering,” adding, “You subordinate your party’s identity, you are putting all of your eggs in one fairly old and unreliable basket.”
He also notes that Republican fortunes in gubernatorial races across these same states have been similarly weak, with victories in only four of the last fourteen contests.
While citing outliers like Maine’s Susan Collins and Vermont’s Phil Scott — Republicans who have succeeded in blue states — Cook stresses that these politicians are not “Trump clones or acolytes.” Their distance from the MAGA brand, he suggests, is precisely what has allowed them to survive politically.
Ultimately, Cook’s analysis offers a warning: even as Democrats struggle with internal unity, Republicans risk alienating the very independents and moderates they will need to hold their narrow majorities. “Anyone who thinks the Republican Party doesn’t have a serious challenge ahead of it,” Cook concludes, “is, metaphorically speaking, floating down that river in Egypt.”
| TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS |
—BIMCO drafting clause on China’s new port fees
Move aims to clarify who pays for U.S.-linked ships
Global shipping group BIMCO is drafting a standard clause to determine who must pay China’s new “Special Port Fees” on vessels with U.S. ties. The fees — effective since Oct. 14 — apply to ships that are U.S.-owned, U.S.-operated, U.S.-flagged, or U.S.-built, and must be paid at the first Chinese port of call.
BIMCO said the clause will allocate responsibility between shipowners and charterers, reducing disputes under existing contracts. The move mirrors BIMCO’s earlier work on U.S. port fees for Chinese-linked vessels, part of a growing tit-for-tat in maritime trade rules.
| BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR |
—Farmers warn Trump of $5 billion hit without more migrant visas
Business coalition urges expansion of H-2A program amid deepening labor shortages and price pressures
A growing coalition of U.S. farmers is warning President Donald Trump that stricter immigration enforcement and a shrinking agricultural workforce could cost the sector more than $5 billion and drive up grocery prices for American consumers, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.
In a letter obtained by Bloomberg Government, the American Business Immigration Coalition — representing more than 1,400 companies — said “the potential losses could exceed $5 billion” if growers cannot gain greater access to legal migrant labor through an expanded H-2A visa program. The coalition warned that without congressional or executive action, the shortfall will translate into “lower available inventory for consumers, upward pressure on prices, and slimmer margins for producers.”
James O’Neill, the coalition’s government affairs director, said uncertainty over workforce availability is crippling operations. “If they’re unsure of whether they wake up tomorrow and their crew of farm workers shows up, how can you possibly have a successful business?” he told Bloomberg.
The shortage has been compounded by stepped-up deportations and enforcement measures under the Trump administration. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of farm workers fell by 81,000 between January and August. An Oct. 2 Federal Register notice from the Labor Department confirmed that these actions have created “significant labor market effects in the agricultural sector.”
The coalition is lobbying Congress and the White House this week to expand or reform the H-2A visa system — originally designed for temporary, seasonal labor — and to create year-round access for sectors such as dairy and livestock. O’Neill said the group supports bipartisan bills from Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) and Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) that would either grant legal status to certain undocumented farm workers or broaden H-2A eligibility.
Matt Teagarden, CEO of the Kansas Livestock Association and part of the fly-in effort, said the administration could also take immediate steps if Congress stalls. “We believe there’s opportunities for the administration to do that — some version of an executive order — addressing the farm labor crisis,” he told Bloomberg.
The push underscores growing tension between Trump’s immigration agenda and the agricultural sector’s reliance on foreign labor — a dilemma that farm groups warn could soon be felt by consumers at the checkout line.
| WEATHER |
— Tropical Storm Melissa strengthening toward Caribbean
Forecasters warn of heavy rain, flooding for Haiti and Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to intensify into a hurricane by the weekend, bringing the threat of torrential rain, strong winds, and dangerous mudslides to parts of the northern Caribbean. Meteorologists have issued a hurricane watch for portions of Haiti and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica, warning that significant flooding is possible across mountainous areas of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
While current forecasts suggest Melissa is unlikely to directly impact the U.S. mainland, Puerto Rico is expected to feel the storm’s effects in the coming days as the system tracks west-northwest. Forecasters caution that the storm’s exact path remains uncertain.
—NWS outlook: Chilly and showery weather across the Great Lakes with lake-effect
thunderstorm bands possible again near Lake Erie today… …Heavy rain threat emerges across the south-central Plains Thursday night as showers and thunderstorms develop… …Late October near record warmth along the lower Rio Grande Valley of
southern Texas.
| Jim Wiesemeyer | 43001 Vestry Court, Broadlands, VA 20148 |
