Trump/Xi Summit Reset for Mid-May as Iran War Forces Delay; China Comments
Farm groups push for more aid | China steps up fentanyl crackdown | Court dismisses DOJ challenge to California egg standards | RFS update
| LINKS |
Link: Cook Political Report Webinar: Wasserman Sees Democratic
Enthusiasm Surge — But Structural Limits Still Shape 2026 Map
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 15
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 15
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 20, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Trump/Xi summit reset for mid-May: President Donald Trump said his delayed summit with Xi Jinping has been reset for mid-May, as the Iran war forces a shift in White House priorities while keeping trade and diplomatic issues squarely on the agenda.
— U.S./China to sustain trade dialogue framework: Beijing said both sides will keep using their economic and trade consultation mechanism after Paris talks, signaling continued engagement but little evidence yet of a major policy breakthrough.
— China steps up fentanyl crackdown, but U.S. remains unsatisfied: China reported new arrests and enforcement actions tied to fentanyl precursor chemicals, but Washington says it wants to see tougher results such as seizures and convictions.
— Farm groups urge emergency relief in letter to Trump: More than 60 agricultural organizations are pressing for farm aid in an emergency package, citing weather disasters, weak prices, tariff uncertainty, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs.
— Iran updates: Global powers are urging de-escalation as oil, gasoline, and natural gas markets remain volatile; the Trump administration is weighing supply options, and the conflict continues to reshape energy, shipping, and geopolitical risk.
— U.S./Japan launch critical minerals action plan: Washington and Tokyo unveiled a new framework to diversify critical minerals sourcing, strengthen allied supply chains, and reduce exposure to geopolitical disruptions.
— Court dismisses DOJ challenge to California egg standards: A federal court left California’s cage-free egg requirements intact, preserving the state’s influence over national production standards and animal welfare rules.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: U.S. stock futures are modestly lower as elevated oil prices and Middle East tensions keep investors cautious heading into a volatile quadruple-witching session.
— Equities yesterday: Stocks finished off session lows after oil pulled back and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested the conflict with Iran could end sooner than markets feared.
— Unilever explores food business sale to McCormick: Unilever is discussing a possible sale of its food division in a deal that would accelerate its shift toward beauty and personal care.
— ECB holds rates steady: The European Central Bank left rates unchanged but warned it could tighten policy if the Iran conflict drives another inflation shock through energy markets.
— Regulators propose looser bank capital rules: Federal officials are moving to ease capital requirements for big U.S. banks, a step that could support lending but revive concerns about weaker safeguards.
AG MARKETS
— USDA export sales show modest China demand: Weekly data showed restrained 2025/26 Chinese buying interest, though fresh 2026/27 cotton sales offered a brighter spot.
— Nebraska wildfires threaten cattle herd rebuild: Massive pasture losses are adding new pressure to an already tight cattle cycle and could further delay U.S. herd expansion.
— Plains drought fuels wheat rally: Hot, dry weather across the Southern Plains is worsening production concerns and helping support wheat prices.
— Soybean complex supported by soymeal: Strong soymeal demand is helping prop up the broader soy complex even as soybean oil faces policy and energy-related headwinds.
— Greeley meatpacking strike enters fifth day: The walkout at a major JBS beef plant is raising concerns about wages, safety, and possible supply disruptions in an already tight beef market.
— Cotton AWP rise eliminates LDP: A jump in the Adjusted World Price has ended cotton loan deficiency payments for the first time since early November.
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grain futures were mostly firmer, soymeal posted a strong gain, and cattle futures weakened.
FERTILIZER
— Bipartisan Senate push targets fertilizer costs: Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), John Thune (R-S.D.), and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) are advancing bills to improve fertilizer price transparency and expand domestic production capacity.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Friday oil markets hold gains: Crude prices stayed elevated as supply risks and infrastructure damage outweighed diplomatic efforts to stabilize flows.
— Thursday oil markets whipsawed: Oil surged on new Middle East attacks and supply fears before policy response options helped temper the rally.
— Airfares face summer pressure: Higher jet-fuel costs, rerouting, and strong demand are increasing the odds of more expensive summer airline tickets.
— EPA biofuels mandate decision nears: The long-delayed 2026–27 biofuels rule could arrive next week, but Iran-related fuel volatility has created new uncertainty around timing.
TRADE POLICY
— Global trade outlook darkens: The WTO says strong 2025 trade growth is likely to slow sharply in 2026 as the Iran conflict, energy costs, and shipping disruptions weigh on momentum.
— CBP tests tariff refund system: Customs has begun testing major refund system components for overturned IEEPA tariffs, but timing for full rollout remains unclear.
CONGRESS
— White House bypasses Schumer in DHS talks: The administration is working directly with centrist Democrats to try to reopen DHS, highlighting growing fractures inside the Democratic caucus.
— Mullin DHS nomination advances: Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) cleared committee after Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) crossed party lines, setting up a full Senate vote next week.
— Limited military experience shapes Iran debate: Fewer than 20% of lawmakers in the 119th Congress have served in the military as Congress weighs war powers and funding tied to Iran.
WEATHER
— Southern Plains heatwave intensifies wheat stress: Extreme heat and prolonged dryness are worsening HRW wheat conditions, raising fire danger, and shaping spring fieldwork across key regions.
— NWS outlook: Record heat, expanding central U.S. warmth, critical fire weather in the High Plains, and wintry conditions in parts of the northern tier are driving a highly uneven national forecast.
| TOP STORIES—Trump/Xi summit reset for mid-May as Iran war forces delayWhite House signals renewed push for U.S./China engagement amid geopolitical tensions and looming trade deadlines President Donald Trump said his postponed summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping has been “reset,” with the meeting now expected to take place in mid-May after being delayed by roughly six weeks due to the escalating war in Iran. Speaking at the White House alongside Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Trump struck an optimistic tone about the rescheduled trip, calling it a “great” opportunity for renewed engagement. While he did not provide a firm date, the revised timeline suggests the summit could occur within a five- to six-week window. The delay underscores how the Iran conflict is reshaping U.S. diplomatic priorities. Trump had originally planned to travel to China at the end of March but opted to remain focused on U.S. military operations and regional instability in the Middle East. Despite the postponement, the summit is taking on heightened importance as both nations navigate a fragile global environment marked by energy market disruptions, supply chain uncertainty, and slowing trade growth. At the center of the agenda will be the U.S./China trade relationship, which remains on uncertain footing. After a bruising tariff escalation last year, both sides agreed to a temporary one-year truce that lowered duties and stabilized flows. That agreement is set to expire this fall, putting pressure on leaders to either extend the détente or risk another round of tariff hikes. The meeting will also serve as a key signal of how Beijing intends to position itself amid the Iran conflict — particularly as global markets react to oil price volatility and shifting geopolitical alliances. For the Trump administration, the rescheduled summit represents both a diplomatic reset and a strategic inflection point — balancing immediate wartime priorities with longer-term economic and trade objectives tied to the U.S.-China relationship. —U.S./China to sustain trade dialogue framework after Paris talksBeijing signals continued consultations, limited detail on new areas of agreement China’s Ministry of Commerce said the U.S. and China have agreed to continue using their economic and trade consultation mechanism following recent talks in Paris, underscoring a mutual effort to stabilize communication despite ongoing tensions. Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yongqian described the discussions as “candid, in-depth and constructive,” covering key issues including tariffs, bilateral trade, and investment. According to China’s official readout, both sides reached “some new points of consensus” and agreed to maintain ongoing consultations — though no specifics were provided on the substance of those agreements. He also noted that the two countries will explore new working-level mechanisms aimed at expanding economic and trade cooperation, suggesting a potential effort to formalize dialogue channels beyond high-level meetings. The characterization from Beijing aligns with earlier comments from U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who indicated the Paris talks were aimed at preserving lines of communication and managing trade frictions rather than delivering immediate policy breakthroughs. Upshot: Taken together, the statements point to a continuation of structured engagement between the two economic powers — with incremental progress possible, but no clear signal yet of major tariff rollbacks or substantive trade policy shifts. —China steps up fentanyl crackdown, but U.S. signals dissatisfactionInitial arrests and enforcement actions mark progress after Busan summit — yet Washington presses for tougher outcomes as tensions linger China has taken its first publicly reported enforcement action targeting fentanyl precursor networks since its October 2025 agreement with the U.S., but American officials are signaling that the effort falls short of expectations. According to Chinese outlet The Paper, an anti-drug taskforce in Hubei province arrested seven individuals and placed 12 others under “criminal compulsory measures” in a crackdown on the production and export of fentanyl precursor chemicals. Authorities also shut down roughly 200 non-compliant enterprise websites tied to the illicit trade. Some of the enforcement actions were supported by intelligence from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. The taskforce was established in December 2025, shortly after President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at their Busan summit to expand bilateral cooperation on fentanyl enforcement — a key priority in U.S.–China relations. Despite the arrests, the U.S. response has been notably restrained. An unnamed U.S. official told Reuters that while Washington is “encouraged by China’s first public enforcement actions,” it remains focused on tangible outcomes, emphasizing: “We want to see seizures and convictions, not just arrests.” Analysts say the muted reaction underscores deeper skepticism in Washington about China’s follow-through. As Trivium China notes, the episode highlights a familiar dynamic in the relationship — where both sides question whether the other is fully delivering on negotiated commitments. The limited scale of enforcement so far, combined with the absence of reported seizures or prosecutions, risks becoming another friction point. With no immediate leader-level summit on the calendar, gaps in expectations — particularly on high-stakes issues like fentanyl — could increasingly weigh on the broader U.S./China relationship.—Farm groups urge emergency relief in letter to TrumpBroad coalition warns of “extraordinary strain” from weather, tariffs, and global conflict as planting season begins A coalition of more than 60 major U.S. agricultural organizations is urging President Donald Trump to include targeted farm relief in an upcoming defense supplemental package, warning that a convergence of economic, weather, and geopolitical shocks threatens the 2026 growing season and long-term farm viability. In a March 19, 2026 letter (link), groups including the American Farm Bureau Federation, National Corn Growers Association, American Soybean Association, and National Farmers Union emphasized that “food security is national security” as they called for immediate federal support. The coalition outlines a multi-pronged relief package aimed at both short-term financial stabilization and long-term demand support: • Direct market relief tied to recent losses, particularly for:Specialty crops, sugar, and alfalfa producersFarmers who sold commodities at depressed prices due to trade uncertainty • Disaster assistance for producers impacted by:Winter storms, drought, and wildfiresLivestock disruptions and infrastructure losses •Energy and biofuel policy support, including:Year-round E15 gasoline salesStrong Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumesExpansion of the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit •Domestic demand incentives, such as:Buying American Cotton ActGrown in America Act •Continuation and expansion of existing aid, including:Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payments The groups stress that without timely intervention, the sector risks accelerating farm closures and reduced domestic production capacity. Of note: The farm group letter does not mention a specific funding level. A Senate proposal making the rounds totals $15 billion to $17 billion. What’s driving the urgency1. Weather disasters across key production regions. The letter highlights a string of extreme weather events already impacting 2026 production:• Southeast: Freeze damage to fruit, vegetable, sugar, and citrus crops• Plains: Drought, high winds, and wildfires destroying pasture and fencing•West: Warm winter raising irrigation and forage concerns These conditions mirror broader trends seen in recent reporting, including large-scale wildfire damage to grazing land in Nebraska and persistent Plains drought tightening wheat and cattle outlooks. 2. Energy shock and input cost surge. A central concern is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has:• Driven fuel and fertilizer prices sharply higher• Disrupted maritime shipping and global supply chains• Increased farm input costs at the start of planting This aligns with broader market volatility, where oil prices have surged amid Middle East conflict, raising concerns about inflation, freight costs, and farm profitability. 3. Weak farm economy and trade uncertainty. The coalition underscores ongoing structural pressures:• Declining crop prices after recent highs• Trade policy uncertainty, including tariff disruptions• High input costs following multi-year inflation These factors have already strained margins, leaving producers financially vulnerable heading into 2026. Policy context: why a defense supplemental? The request to attach farm aid to a defense supplemental bill reflects a familiar legislative strategy:• Supplemental packages are often used to move urgent funding outside normal budget caps• The linkage to national security — especially amid global conflict — strengthens the political case Agriculture groups are framing farm stability as critical to:• Domestic food supply• Global food security• Strategic economic resilience This approach echoes prior efforts where disaster and farm assistance were paired with broader emergency spending packages. Bottom Line: The letter represents a rare, unified push across nearly every major U.S. commodity and specialty crop group, signaling the depth of concern across agriculture. With planting underway, rising input costs, and weather risks mounting, the industry is pressing the Trump administration and Congress to act quickly — arguing that failure to deliver relief could have lasting consequences for U.S. production, rural economies, and global food markets. —Iran updates: • The UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and the Netherlands issued a joint statement calling on Iran to stop attacks on energy sites and other civilian infrastructure. They also called for an end to the shipping gridlock in the Strait of Hormuz. •Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is looking to remove sanctions on Iranian oil as part of efforts to reduce energy prices. It would be a stunning reversal of U.S. policy that used sanctions to bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear program. Crude prices fell back slightly after Bessent’s remarks in an interview with Fox Business. Bessent said that would be the equivalent of about 140 million barrels, and that the U.S. could also release more oil from its own strategic reserves. •Oil and natural gas prices fell even more while Benjamin Netanyahu spoke. He discussed the war and said it will be “ending a lot faster than people think,” but he also said regime change in Iran would require a “ground component.” U.S. equities bounced after Benjamin Netanyahu said U.S./Israeli strikes have destroyed Tehran’s ability to enrich uranium. The Israeli prime minister insisted his alliance with President Donald Trump was unshaken, though the American leader has publicly admonished Netanyahu for an attack on an Iranian gas field, while top U.S. intelligence officials have outlined diverging war goals from Israel’s. • The White House is not considering putting restrictions on the export of oil and gas, a Trump administration official said Thursday, following a meeting between Vice President JD Vance and oil executives. “Oil and gas export restrictions are not under consideration,” the official said. The meeting, held at the American Petroleum Institute, comes as President Donald Trump faces intense political pressure to address rising fuel prices because of the U.S./Israel war on Iran. •WSJ: Saudi Arabia sees a spike to $180 oil if energy shock persists past April. Gulf oil officials say prices are set to climb through April if disruptions persist, with the Strait of Hormuz — which handles about 20% of global oil flows — effectively constrained by ongoing attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure. Saudi Aramco is scrambling to finalize April 2 pricing as supply tightens. Officials see prices reaching $138–$140 near term, rising to $150 in early April and potentially $165 or higher if disruptions continue. But Riyadh is cautious. Prices above $150 risk triggering demand destruction — as consumers and businesses cut usage — and could tip major economies toward recession. • The average price of gasoline rose again overnight, to $3.91. That’s nearly a dollar more than it was a month ago. •How much have California gas prices increased? As of Thursday, March 19, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in California was $5.62, according to AAA. That is about $2 higher than the national average. Just a month earlier, California drivers were paying $4.59 per gallon, marking an increase of more than $1. Around this time in 2025, drivers were paying about $4.65 a gallon. • Big difference: Natural gas prices in the U.S. are hovering around $3 per million Btus, according to the EIA, compared with more than $20 per million Btu in Europe and Asia. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is looking to increase U.S. LNG export capacity to fill the gap. •This week’s Iranian attacks on Qatar’s liquefied natural gas infrastructure struck a huge blow. Saad al-Kaabi, CEO of the state-owned LNG powerhouse QatarEnergy, told Reuters yesterday that 17 percent of production capacity had been wiped out and that it would take up to five years to restore. • The U.S. has deployed its GBU-72 — its newest and second-most powerful bunker-busting bomb — against fortified Iranian targets, marking the weapon’s first known combat use, according to multiple reports. Without naming the munition, U.S. Central Command said that forces “successfully employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions” on hardened Iranian missile sites. Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Mark Weatherington later confirmed to CNN the weapons were GBU-72 Advanced 5K Penetrators, used against sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. The GBU-72 is designed to replace older bunker-busters, capable of penetrating deeply buried, reinforced targets — including missile sites, command centers, and nuclear facilities — while limiting above-ground damage. • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Iranian regime could “collapse within itself,” pointing to what the Trump administration views as growing internal strain under combined military and economic pressure. Bessent argued that U.S. and Israeli operations — alongside sustained sanctions — are exposing fractures inside Tehran’s leadership, including what he described as “defections at all levels” and capital flight by elites seeking to hedge against instability. The remarks reflect the administration’s broader strategy: using coordinated financial pressure, infrastructure strikes, and geopolitical isolation to weaken the regime from within rather than relying solely on direct military escalation. • Tehran has also “created a de facto ‘safe’ shipping corridor,” allowing vessels from countries including China, India, Iraq, Malaysia, and Pakistan through the Strait, according to the shipping-focused outlet Lloyds List. Ultimately, one leading expert wrote of Hormuz, “Iran holds the advantage — and America has no good options.” —U.S./Japan launch critical minerals action plan to strengthen supply chainsAgreement aims to diversify sourcing, stabilize markets, and bolster energy and industrial security The United States and Japan have unveiled a new U.S./Japan Action Plan on Critical Minerals, marking a significant step toward strengthening supply chain resilience and reducing dependence on concentrated foreign sources. Link. Link to White House fact sheet. Announced by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the plan focuses on developing coordinated trade policies and border mechanisms designed to mitigate vulnerabilities in critical minerals supply chains — particularly those essential to advanced manufacturing, energy systems, and defense technologies. At its core, the initiative seeks to expand production and diversify sourcing of key minerals such as lithium, rare earth elements, and other inputs vital to semiconductors, batteries, and clean energy technologies. The agreement also emphasizes protections for downstream industries that rely heavily on stable and predictable imports. Greer signaled that the Action Plan is intended as a foundation for a broader binding plurilateral agreement, potentially incorporating tools such as price floors and market stabilization mechanisms to counter volatility and market manipulation.“This is an important step to expand the production and diversity of critical minerals,” Greer said, adding that the initiative reinforces both supply chain resilience and energy security with a key Indo-Pacific ally.The move comes amid heightened global competition for critical minerals and ongoing efforts by the Trump administration to re-shore strategic supply chains and reduce reliance on geopolitical rivals, particularly in Asia.Upshot: By deepening coordination with Japan, the U.S. is positioning the partnership as a cornerstone of a wider Indo-Pacific critical minerals framework, with potential expansion to other allied economies in future negotiations. —Court dismisses DOJ challenge to California egg standardsRuling leaves state animal welfare law intact, reinforcing state authority over agricultural production standards A federal court has dismissed the Department of Justice’s lawsuit challenging California’s hen welfare requirements, dealing a setback to efforts by the Trump administration to overturn state-level agricultural regulations affecting interstate commerce. The DOJ had argued that California’s standards — which require eggs sold in the state to come from cage-free housing systems — unlawfully burden out-of-state producers and conflict with federal authority. The case was widely viewed as a continuation of broader legal and policy battles over California’s animal welfare laws, including those impacting pork and egg production. In dismissing the case, the court signaled that the federal government failed to establish sufficient legal grounds to invalidate the state’s rules. The decision effectively upholds California’s authority to impose production standards on products sold within its borders, even if those standards reshape supply chains nationwide. Implications for agriculture and trade •Status quo remains: Egg producers nationwide must continue complying with California’s cage-free requirements to access one of the largest consumer markets in the U.S. •Supply chain impacts: The ruling reinforces incentives for producers to transition housing systems, a shift that has already required significant capital investment across the egg industry. •State vs. federal authority: The decision underscores ongoing tensions between state-level regulations and federal oversight of agricultural markets. •Broader precedent: The outcome aligns with earlier court rulings — including Supreme Court precedent — that have allowed California’s animal welfare laws to stand despite challenges from other states and industry groups. Animal welfare groups welcomed the move. “The attempt by the Department of Justice to upend immensely popular laws to give laying hens some space to move was absurd on its face, and this ruling is spot on,” said Wayne Pacelle, the president of Animal Wellness Action and the Center for a Humane Economy who was a key architect of the state’s farm animal welfare laws. Bottom Line: The dismissal preserves California’s influence over national egg production practices and signals that federal legal avenues to unwind state animal welfare mandates remain limited, keeping regulatory pressure on producers and maintaining a fragmented policy landscape across states. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: U.S. equity futuresare modestly lower as oil rises near $110/bbl amid continued Middle East escalation overnight. Iran warned of “zero restraint” while attacks have reduced Qatar LNG output invoking force majeure on short-term deliveries and raised risks to regional energy supply.
Today focus will remain on geopolitics and oil, although it is a Quadruple Witching Options Expiration which could increase volatility into the close. There are no economic reports or notable earnings today. And Fed Chair Powell will be speaking on Saturday (1:30 p.m. ET).
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.9%. China -1.2%. India +0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
—Equities yesterday: All three indexes rebounded from steeper losses earlier in the day, stemming from a surge in oil prices. Brent prices pulled back to under $110 later in the day, helping spark a last-minute rally that pulled stocks up from their lows. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference that he sees the war with Iran “ending a lot faster than people think.”
| Equity Index | Closing Price March 19 | Point Difference from March 18 | % Difference from March 18 |
| Dow | 46,021.43 | -203.72 | -0.44% |
| Nasdaq | 22,090.69 | -61.73 | -0.28% |
| S&P 500 | 6,606.49 | -18.21 | -0.27% |
—Unilever explores $30 billion food business sale to McCormick
Move would accelerate shift toward beauty and personal care
Unilever is in talks to sell its food division to McCormick & Co. for roughly $30B–$34B, though no deal is certain. The move would pull Unilever away from food rivals like Kraft Heinz and Nestlé, and deepen its focus on faster-growing beauty and personal care. A sale would mark a major strategic pivot as Unilever bets on higher-growth consumer segments.
McCormick has a market cap of around $14.5 billion while Unilever’s total market cap is around $136 billion. Unilever’s food unit generated about 25% of the company’s overall sales in 2025 at around 12.9 billion euros ($14.9 billion).
This marks another effort by Unilever to refocus its business on beauty and personal health care. The company spun off its ice cream business in 2025. The deal is struck by some as potentially an odd fit given the much smaller size of McCormick and reports have of course suggested that the deal may not be finalized. The Financial Times earlier this week said Unilever had unsuccessfully sought to merge its food assets with Kraft Heinz’s condiments business, with the Wall Street Journal Thursday reporting on the latest potential move. The focus on ultraprocessed foods is also expected to be a factor in the efforts.
—ECB holds rates steady — signals readiness to tighten if Iran conflict fuels inflation
Central bank keeps deposit rate at 2% but warns energy-driven inflation shock could trigger hikes and recession risk
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting, holding its deposit rate at 2%. However, policymakers signaled a clear willingness to resume rate hikes as soon as the next meeting if the escalating conflict involving Iran drives inflation significantly above target.
In updated projections, the ECB outlined a severe scenario in which inflation could peak at 6.3% in early 2027, largely driven by energy market disruptions tied to the conflict. Under that same scenario, the Eurozone would likely experience a short recession, highlighting the growing tradeoff between controlling inflation and sustaining economic growth.
—Federal regulators proposed loosening capital requirements for U.S. banks. The change would allow banks to have $20 billion less in reserves on average, a move aimed at raising lending and helping them compete with private-credit firms. The move would be a win for Wall Street, rolling back stricter Biden-era proposals, though analysts say it could weaken financial safeguards put in place after the 2008 financial crisis.
| AG MARKETS |
—USDA data shows continued tempered 2025/26 sales activity to China but fresh 2026/27 cotton sales. USDA weekly Export Sales data for the week ending March 12 included 2025/26 activity for China that focused in part on shifting sales that were previously reported as being sold to unknown destinations. The activity included net sales of 142,144 MT of sorghum (11,607 MT of new sales), 79,867 MT of soybeans (14,229 MT of new sales), and 9,970 running bales of upland cotton (7,777 running bales of new sales). However, there were sales of 48,592 running bales of upland cotton for 2026/27, putting outstanding sale at 114,730 running bales. USDA also reported net sales of 3,493 MT of pork (3,572 MT of new sales) for 2026.
—Nebraska wildfires disrupt grazing, threaten U.S. cattle herd rebuild
Loss of pastureland adds new pressure to already tight cattle supplies and record-high beef prices
Massive wildfires across Nebraska have scorched nearly 775,000 acres of land — roughly the size of Rhode Island — dealing a major setback to U.S. cattle producers already struggling to rebuild the national herd.
The fires, fueled by strong winds and ongoing dryness, have wiped out critical grazing areas capable of supporting roughly 40,000 head of cattle. While livestock losses appear limited, the destruction of pasture, fencing, and stored hay is forcing producers to reassess expansion plans and scramble for alternative feed sources.
Nebraska — the second-largest cattle-producing state — sits at the center of U.S. beef production, particularly for breeding stock. State Agriculture Director Sherry Vinton warned the damage will have a “definite impact,” especially as ranchers weigh whether they can sustain or grow their herds without adequate grazing resources.
Expansion plans face new headwinds. The wildfires come at a fragile moment for the cattle cycle. U.S. herd size has already fallen to a 75-year low after years of drought, elevated feed costs, and strong cattle prices that incentivized liquidation rather than retention of breeding stock.
Rebuilding the herd — critical to easing tight beef supplies and high consumer prices — has been slow. Producers are navigating:
• Persistent drought across key cattle regions
• High interest rates raising the cost of herd expansion
• Uncertainty about future cattle prices
The fires compound these challenges, with ranchers warning that setbacks like this can reverse already modest progress. As Nebraska Cattlemen President Craig Uden noted, events like these “don’t help” when the industry is trying to move forward.
Limited grazing options across the U.S. Finding replacement pasture is proving difficult. Roughly 70% of U.S. cattle are already located in regions experiencing abnormal dryness or drought, limiting available grazing alternatives. Recent fires in Kansas and Oklahoma have further tightened supply. (See next item for more details on the weather outlook.)
Some producers may turn to federally conserved lands for emergency grazing, while others are being forced to move cattle out of state or into feedlots earlier than planned — raising costs and potentially accelerating marketings.
The recovery timeline is also a concern. Burned sandy soils may take one to three years to fully recover, meaning the impacts of these fires could extend well beyond the current season.
Market implications. The destruction of grazing land reinforces a key market reality: herd expansion remains highly vulnerable to weather shocks.
If producers are unable to secure adequate pasture or rainfall fails to materialize, more cattle could be pushed into feedlots or sold off — further delaying herd rebuilding and prolonging tight beef supplies.
In short, the Nebraska wildfires add another layer of uncertainty to an already constrained cattle market, with implications for producers, packers, and consumers facing elevated beef prices.
—Plains drought fuels wheat rally
Dry, warm forecast and limited rainfall outlook tighten supply expectations, push Chicago futures higher
Worsening drought conditions across key U.S. Plains states are providing fresh upward momentum to Chicago wheat futures, as traders price in rising production risks ahead of the 2026 harvest.
The hardest-hit areas — including Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska — are critical for hard red winter (HRW) wheat. Persistent dryness during late winter and early spring has stressed crop development at a vulnerable stage, limiting yield potential and raising concerns about abandonment.
Recent weather trends have reinforced those concerns. Much of the central and southern Plains has experienced warmer-than-normal temperatures, strong winds, and minimal precipitation, accelerating soil moisture losses and worsening drought conditions.
Looking ahead, forecasts offer only limited relief. While some early-season storms brought localized improvement in parts of Oklahoma and Texas, broader outlooks call for mostly dry conditions across the Plains through late March, with precipitation totals generally light or nonexistent in key growing areas.
Meanwhile, above-normal temperatures are expected to persist, increasing evaporation rates and further stressing crops.
Seasonal projections add to the concern. The April–June outlook leans warmer and drier across the High Plains, with drought expected to persist or even expand during the critical yield-development window for wheat.
As a result, market participants are increasingly factoring in:
• Lower yield potential due to depleted soil moisture
• Reduced harvested acreage, particularly in marginal fields
• Tighter U.S. exportable supplies, especially for high-protein wheat
The rally in Chicago futures reflects both domestic production risks and heightened global sensitivity to supply disruptions. With ongoing geopolitical instability already supporting commodity markets, adverse U.S. weather is adding another layer of bullish momentum.
In the near term, the Plains forecast reinforces a clear market signal: Without sustained, widespread rainfall in the coming weeks, weather-driven risk premiums are likely to remain firmly embedded in wheat prices.
—Soybean complex finds support as soymeal leads the rally
Strong meal demand and tightening supply dynamics help offset pressure in broader oilseed markets
Strength in soybean meal is providing a firm underpinning for the broader soy complex, helping to stabilize futures despite mixed signals from soybean oil and macro headwinds tied to global energy volatility.
Soymeal prices have been buoyed by solid domestic and export demand, particularly from the livestock and poultry sectors, where feed demand remains resilient. Tightening global protein meal supplies — including uncertainty around South American production and logistics — have further reinforced bullish sentiment in the meal market.
That strength is helping offset relative weakness in soybean oil, which has faced pressure from volatility in energy markets and uncertainty surrounding biofuel policy signals. As a result, the soy complex has taken on a more meal-led structure, with crushers benefiting from improved margins driven by stronger meal values.
Market participants note that soymeal’s leadership is particularly significant at a time when broader commodity markets are navigating inflation concerns, geopolitical disruptions, and shifting trade flows. Continued demand strength — especially from key importers — will be critical in sustaining the complex’s upward momentum.
Looking ahead, traders will be closely watching South American harvest progress, U.S. planting intentions, and any shifts in global feed demand, all of which could influence whether soymeal continues to anchor the soy complex in the weeks ahead.
—Greeley meatpacking strike enters fifth day, raising supply concerns
Labor dispute at major JBS plant highlights wage, safety, and market concentration tensions
Thousands of meatpacking workers in Greeley, Colorado, entered their fifth day on strike Friday, marking the first major U.S. meatpacking walkout in roughly four decades and raising concerns about potential disruptions in an already tight beef market.
The strike, led by the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 7, targets one of the nation’s largest beef processing facilities, operated by JBS, which employs about 3,800 workers and processes thousands of cattle daily. Union President Kim Cordova said the dispute extends beyond a single plant, accusing JBS of attempting to suppress wages across the broader industry.
Key disputes: wages and safety costs. At the center of the conflict is JBS’s wage offer, which the union says fails to keep pace with Colorado’s inflation rate. Workers are also pushing back against company policies requiring them to pay for personal protective equipment — including costly items such as safety vests — through wage deductions, which union leaders characterize as “wage theft.”
Additional concerns include requirements that workers supply their own gloves, goggles, and other safety gear, despite the hazardous nature of meatpacking work.
Operational impact remains uncertain. JBS says the plant has continued limited operations since the strike began, with “hundreds” of employees still working and production partially shifted to other facilities. The company stated its goal is to minimize disruption to customers and the broader market while negotiations continue.
However, the longer the strike persists, the greater the risk of supply strain. The U.S. beef sector is already under pressure following the closure of a major Tyson Foods plant earlier this year, tightening processing capacity.
Union officials say the strike will last at least two weeks unless JBS improves its offer, while the company maintains it has remained in contact with union representatives and is awaiting a response. The outcome could have ripple effects across labor negotiations, cattle markets, and consumer beef prices nationwide.
Of note: The last meat packer strike — 1985 at Hormel in Austin, Minn. —saw Hormel eventually replace the striking workers with non-union workers who were happy to have a chance at the wages offered by the company that were lower than the wages that were paid to the workers that chose to go on strike.
—Cotton AWP rise eliminates LDP. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) is at 54.22 cents per pound, effective today (March 20), up from 51.50 cents per pound the prior week, and eliminating the availability of an LDP for cotton for the first time since the week of Nov. 7, 2025. The largest LDP available over that time was 2.61 cents per pound.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price March 19 | Change from March 18 |
| Corn | May | $4.69 3/4 | +6 1/2¢ |
| Soybeans | May | $11.68 1/2 | +6 3/4¢ |
| Soybean Meal | May | $332.50 | +$10.80 |
| Soybean Oil | May | 65.41¢ | -12 pts |
| SRW Wheat | May | $6.08 | +3 3/4¢ |
| HRW Wheat | May | $6.27 1/4 | +1 1/4¢ |
| Spring Wheat | May | $6.43 3/4 | +6 1/2¢ |
| Cotton | May | 67.67¢ | -103 pts |
| Live Cattle | April | $233.275 | -$2.125 |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $355.275 | -$3.45 |
| Lean Hogs | April | $93.75 | +$0.025 |
| FERTILIZER |
—Bipartisan Senate push targets fertilizer costs and supply vulnerabilities
Klobuchar teams with Thune and Marshall on transparency and domestic production bills amid farm income pressure
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), the top Democrat on the Senate Ag Committee, is spearheading a new bipartisan legislative push to address rising fertilizer costs and supply chain instability — partnering with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) on a pair of bills aimed at improving market transparency and boosting domestic production capacity.
The effort comes as U.S. farmers face a tightening margin environment, with persistently high input costs — particularly for nitrogen fertilizers like urea — colliding with softer commodity prices. Lawmakers from both parties are increasingly framing fertilizer as both an economic and national security issue, given the U.S.’ reliance on imports from geopolitically sensitive regions.
Transparency bill targets opaque pricing structure. The Fertilizer Transparency Act, led by Klobuchar and Thune, would establish a mandatory price reporting system for key fertilizer components, similar to existing USDA livestock and commodity reporting frameworks. The goal is to provide farmers, retailers, and policymakers with more consistent and timely pricing data in what has long been viewed as an opaque and highly concentrated market.
Klobuchar argued that greater transparency would help level the playing field for producers navigating volatile input costs, while Thune emphasized that uncertainty around fertilizer pricing has compounded financial stress for farmers already dealing with tight margins.
The bill has additional bipartisan backing from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), underscoring broad concern across major agricultural states.
Domestic production bill aims to reduce import dependence. A second measure, the Homegrown Fertilizer Act, introduced by Klobuchar and Marshall, focuses on expanding U.S. fertilizer manufacturing and storage capacity through a combination of grants and loans.
The legislation is designed to:
• Incentivize new domestic production facilities
• Expand storage infrastructure to buffer against supply shocks
• Strengthen supply chain resilience during geopolitical disruptions
Marshall framed the bill as a way to reduce farmers’ exposure to global price spikes and logistical bottlenecks, particularly those tied to Middle East energy markets and shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for nitrogen fertilizer inputs.
Broader policy context: supply shocks, trade, and farm margins. The legislative push reflects mounting concern in Washington over fertilizer market concentration and global supply risks. The U.S. imports significant volumes of nitrogen-based fertilizers, with key suppliers including countries in the Middle East and North Africa — regions now facing heightened instability tied to the Iran conflict.
Recent market data shows that while potash and phosphate prices have remained relatively stable, nitrogen fertilizers — especially urea — have been more sensitive to energy price spikes and trade disruptions. Since natural gas is a primary input for nitrogen production, volatility in global gas markets has had an outsized impact on fertilizer costs.
For producers, the timing is critical:
• Many have already locked in fertilizer purchases for the 2026 growing season
• However, uncertainty remains around supply availability and pricing for late purchases or acreage shifts
• Elevated input costs continue to pressure profitability, particularly as crop prices moderate
Outlook: fertilizer policy emerging as farm bill wildcard. These bills could become key components of broader farm policy negotiations later this year, particularly as Congress works toward a new Farm Bill 2.0 before the September deadline. Fertilizer — once a secondary issue — is increasingly central to discussions around input affordability, supply chain resilience, and domestic manufacturing.
If enacted, the measures would mark one of the most direct federal interventions in fertilizer markets in decades — signaling a shift toward treating agricultural inputs as strategic infrastructure alongside energy and food security.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Friday: Oil markets hold gains as supply risks outweigh diplomatic efforts
Geopolitical damage and tight fundamentals keep crude elevated despite coordinated moves to stabilize shipping and boost supply
Oil prices moved higher Friday, underscoring persistent market tightness even as global powers step up efforts to secure energy flows and ease supply pressures.
Brent crude rose $1.20 (1.1%) to $109.85 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged up to $96.20. For the week, Brent is on track for a roughly 7% gain, while WTI is set to post a modest decline of about 2%.
Analysts say underlying supply damage — rather than short-term policy responses — is anchoring prices.
Supply disruptions outweigh policy response. Escalating conflict between Israel and Iran continues to drive volatility. A recent strike on energy infrastructure — including damage that knocked out roughly 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity — has heightened concerns about long-term supply constraints, with repairs expected to take years.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows — remains a focal point. European nations, Japan, and Canada signaled willingness to help secure shipping routes, reflecting growing international concern over the chokepoint.
Still, market participants remain skeptical that diplomatic or military coordination can quickly normalize flows. As one analyst noted, even if safe passage is restored, rebuilding logistics and supply chains will take significant time.
U.S. supply options in focus. The Trump administration is exploring measures to offset supply shocks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the U.S. could lift sanctions on Iranian oil stranded on tankers and consider additional releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Domestic production may also provide incremental relief. North Dakota output is expected to rise as producers restart wells and seasonal constraints ease, though regulators caution that growth will depend on sustained high prices and pre-set capital budgets.
Market outlook: volatility with upside risk. Despite some easing of immediate “war premium” earlier in the session amid calls for de-escalation, oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
The key takeaway: while policy interventions may soften the edges of the supply shock, structural disruptions — from damaged infrastructure to constrained logistics — are likely to keep prices elevated and volatile in the near term.
—Thursday: Oil markets whipsawed by Middle East escalation and supply uncertainty
Brent surges near multi-year highs while geopolitical strikes and potential policy responses drive volatility
Global oil markets saw sharp volatility Thursday as escalating conflict in the Middle East rattled supply expectations and pushed prices higher, even as potential U.S. policy responses aimed to cap the rally.
Price action and widening spreads. Brent crude settled at $108.65 per barrel, up $1.27 on the day, after spiking as high as $119.13 — nearing a 3½-year peak. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $96.14, down slightly despite an earlier surge to $100.02. The divergence leaves WTI trading at its widest discount to Brent in 11 years, highlighting regional supply dynamics and transportation constraints.
Meanwhile, Dubai and Oman crude premiums surged to record levels near $65 per barrel, underscoring tight conditions for Middle Eastern export grades.
Conflict-driven supply shock risks. The latest volatility was triggered by coordinated attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East, intensifying fears of a broader supply disruption:
• Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, a critical global energy hub
• Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, halting operations at Shell’s Pearl gas-to-liquids facility (140,000 b/d)
• Saudi Arabia intercepted attacks targeting key infrastructure, including the SAMREF refinery in Yanbu
• Kuwait’s Mina al-Ahmadi refinery experienced a limited fire following a drone strike
While oil loadings have resumed at affected ports, the incidents exposed the vulnerability of core supply nodes, driving European natural gas prices to three-year highs.
U.S. weighs supply response options. In response to rising prices, U.S. officials are evaluating measures to stabilize markets, including:
• A potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release
• Possible easing of sanctions to unlock roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian crude currently stranded in floating storage
Analysts caution that while the Iranian volumes are relatively modest, they could help cool near-term price momentum if released.
Balancing forces: geopolitics vs. U.S. production. Despite the geopolitical premium building into prices, strong output from the Permian Basin continues to act as a counterweight, helping prevent an even sharper spike.
Meanwhile, reports that the U.S. may deploy additional troops to the region signal rising security risks — reinforcing market concerns that disruptions could escalate further.
Bottom Line: Oil markets are increasingly caught between escalating geopolitical risk and limited but meaningful supply side policy options, with price direction hinging on whether disruptions deepen or additional barrels can be brought online quickly.
—Airfares face summer pressure as fuel costs rise
Higher jet-fuel prices, longer flight routes, and strong travel demand are setting the stage for more expensive airline tickets if the Iran war persists
Airfares are likely to move higher this summer as the conflict with Iran drives up airline costs, especially for fuel. Jet-fuel prices have jumped sharply since the war began ($1.50 per gallon), and while many carriers locked in some costs through hedging, that protection is only temporary.
Of note: According to the Economist (link), jet-fuel prices have jumped to $190 a barrel, and the impact of that “will be uneven. For low-cost carriers, fuel accounts for about a third of costs, compared with a fifth for legacy airlines. Carriers also vary in their level of protection. Some, such as Ryanair, IAG and Qantas, are well hedged against near-term price rises, softening the blow. America’s big carriers, however, are typically unprotected.
The pressure is not coming from fuel alone. Flight disruptions across the Middle East are forcing airlines to reroute planes, adding time and fuel burn to international trips. Those added operating costs typically find their way into ticket prices, especially if the conflict drags on and oil transport disruptions continue.
A prolonged war could also force airlines to cut less profitable routes or reduce the number of flights on key destinations, tightening available seats just as travel demand remains strong. That combination — high demand and rising operating expenses — is usually a formula for higher fares.
For now, most airlines are holding the line, but travelers should not expect that to last indefinitely, analysts note. The longer the conflict continues, the greater the odds that summer ticket prices will rise and stay elevated.
Experts suggest travelers looking to limit the hit should book summer flights sooner rather than later, consider secondary airports instead of major hubs, and look at weekday departures, which are often cheaper than weekend travel.
—EPA biofuels mandate decision nears — but timing uncertain
White House event may anchor release of 2026–27 RFS volumes as Iran-driven fuel volatility complicates final decision
The long-awaited release of the 2026–27 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates could arrive as early as next week, with the White House planning a March 27 “celebration of agriculture” event expected to feature the announcement, according to market expectations and policy signals referenced by Zachary Davis of Nesvick Trading Group.
However, uncertainty has crept into the timeline after a senior administration official reportedly paused final movement on the rule to evaluate the impact of the Iran conflict on fuel prices — a delay that has complicated confidence in the expected rollout.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had previously committed — including in court filings — to finalize the renewable volume obligations (RVOs) by the end of the first quarter. While the rule has already been submitted to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the delay raises questions about whether that deadline will hold. If the rule slips past March 31, the likelihood of further adjustments increases, even though reopening the proposal remains unlikely, Davis notes.
Market expectations: Higher volumes, no “half-RIN” policy. According to Davis, market participants continue to expect a relatively strong mandate:
• Biomass-based diesel (D4) volumes above 5 billion gallons
• Removal of the proposed “half-RIN” policy on foreign feedstocks
• A shift toward higher blending volumes instead
This shift is critical for biofuel economics, particularly for soybean oil demand. The roughly 2 billion RIN bank heading into 2026 is expected to be drawn down over the year, tightening compliance markets and supporting RIN prices.
Soybean oil outlook tied to policy clarity. The same analysis highlights a major structural shift in feedstock competition:
• Imports of used cooking oil (UCO), particularly from China, have declined sharply due to tariffs, tax policy changes, and U.S. incentives favoring domestic inputs
• China exported 1.27 million metric tons (≈ 2.8 billion pounds) of UCO to the U.S. in 2024
With that supply channel disrupted, domestic soybean oil (SBO) is positioned to regain market share, with projected use rising to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026–27.
Margin pressure and policy risk. Despite improving fundamentals, margins remain a constraint:
• Current biomass-based diesel margins: ~$0.70 per gallon
• Required to meet mandate levels: ~$1.25 per gallon
Without finalized RVO levels, producers remain hesitant to expand output, leaving soybean oil inventories elevated.
Bottom Line: The timing of EPA’s mandate release is now the key variable. A near-term announcement could unlock stronger demand and price recovery, while further delays risk extending uncertainty across biofuel and oilseed markets. Some assume EPA will not meet the deadline. The Middle East situation does add another layer. But others say wouldn’t relying more on domestically produced biofuel be a positive as opposed to pausing the process?
| TRADE POLICY |
—Global trade outlook darkens as Iran war threatens momentum after strong 2025
WTO warns energy shocks and supply disruptions could sharply slow goods and services trade growth in 2026, with downside risks mounting
Global trade is losing momentum after a stronger-than-expected 2025, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) warning that the ongoing Iran conflict and rising energy prices could significantly weigh on trade flows in 2026.
In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report (link), the WTO said global goods trade grew 4.6% in 2025 — nearly double earlier projections — driven largely by surging demand for artificial intelligence-related goods and stronger-than-expected economic growth.
But that strength is not expected to carry forward.
Trade growth set to slow sharply. The WTO now forecasts goods trade growth of just 1.9% in 2026, a drop of more than half from 2025 levels, before a modest rebound to 2.6% in 2027.
Officials emphasized that 2025 was an outlier year. WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger noted that trade growth far outpaced global GDP — an unusual dynamic — and is expected to normalize in 2026 as trade and economic growth realign.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the temporary boost from frontloaded demand and AI investment will likely fade, even as policy uncertainty remains elevated.
Iran conflict emerges as key risk. The biggest new headwind is the war involving Iran, particularly its impact on global energy markets and shipping routes. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil and trade flows — are already:
• Driving up energy prices
• Slowing shipping transit
• Threatening supply chains across sectors, including agriculture and critical minerals
The WTO warned that sustained high oil prices could cut 0.5 percentage points from 2026 trade growth, pushing it closer to 1.4%.
Conversely, a short-lived conflict combined with continued AI-driven demand could lift growth to around 2.4%, highlighting the unusually wide range of possible outcomes.
Services trade also moderating. While less volatile than goods trade, services are also expected to slow:
• 2025: 5.3% growth
•2026 forecast: 4.8%
•2027 forecast: 5.1%
A prolonged conflict could further reduce 2026 services growth to 4.1%, driven by:
• Disruptions to travel and transport
• Slower global economic activity tied to energy costs
Policy uncertainty and structural shifts. Despite ongoing tariff tensions — particularly under the Trump administration’s trade posture — the WTO noted that recent policy changes have largely involved legal restructuring rather than significant new tariff increases.
Still, uncertainty remains historically high, and WTO officials stressed that predictable trade policies and stronger supply chain resilience will be critical to cushioning the global economy.
Rules-based system under pressure — but intact. The report also highlights a gradual erosion in the global trading system’s foundational principles.
The share of global trade conducted under most-favored-nation (MFN) terms has fallen:
• 80% in early 2025 → 72% as of February 2026
This shift reflects increasing fragmentation but, according to Okonjo-Iweala, also underscores the system’s resilience. “The rules-based system may be battered, but it is far from broken,” she said ahead of the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé, where MFN reforms will be a central topic.
Bottom Line: After an AI-driven surge in 2025, global trade is entering a more fragile phase. The trajectory for 2026 hinges heavily on geopolitical developments — particularly the Iran conflict — and whether energy markets stabilize or deliver another inflationary shock to the global economy.
—CBP tests tariff refund system as completion nears
Key modules advancing, but rollout timing remains unclear
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has begun testing major components of its tariff refund system for overturned IEEPA duties, though it has not confirmed when the tool will go live.
The CAPE system — designed to automate refunds through ACE — is progressing unevenly:
•Claims portal: 73% (testing)
• Mass processing: 45% (still in development)
• Review/reliquidation: 80% (testing)
• Refund system: 63% (testing)
Most components are now in testing, with refund processing already being validated. The main delay remains the mass processing function, which CBP expects to begin testing soon.
Bottom Line: While progress is accelerating, the percentage completion levels outlined by CBP in the court filing are not all that much different than those reported one week ago when it said that the four systems were 40% to 80% complete.
| CONGRESS |
—White House bypasses Schumer in push to reopen DHS
Administration targets centrist Democrats as negotiations stall and internal party tensions mount
The White House is attempting to sidestep Senate Democratic leadership in negotiations to reopen the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), engaging directly with a group of centrist Democrats amid a prolonged funding lapse.
White House border czar Tom Homan met Thursday with moderate lawmakers — including Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Angus King (I-Maine), and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) — to broker a deal outside of Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) negotiating channel. Schumer, who has led prior talks with the administration, was notably absent.
Homan signaled continued engagement with the centrist bloc, emphasizing the urgency of reopening DHS, which has been unfunded since Feb. 14. However, Murray cautioned that both sides remain “a long ways apart.”
Republicans and White House officials increasingly view Schumer as an obstacle to a deal, believing a narrower agreement with a small group of Democratic centrists may be more achievable. Potential compromises under discussion include enhanced oversight measures for immigration enforcement — such as requiring body cameras for federal officers — though these proposals have not yet met broader Democratic demands.
Schumer and Democratic leadership have pushed for more sweeping reforms, including judicial warrant requirements for home entries and restrictions on masked enforcement operations. Those demands have complicated negotiations and intensified partisan divisions.
Meanwhile, Schumer is facing mounting pressure from the Democratic Party’s progressive wing to hold firm against the Trump administration. That internal friction is spilling into electoral politics, with Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton publicly opposing Schumer’s continued leadership, arguing voters want more confrontational leadership in Washington.
Of note: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the partial government shutdown will lead to airport closures as challenges grow for Transportation Security Administration agents who are not receiving paychecks. “As we get into next week and they’re about to miss another payment, this is going to look like child’s play what’s happening right now,” he said in an interview with CNBC. “You’re going to see small airports I believe shut down.” Passengers will also see “extensive lines,” he said, and possible gridlock for air travel.
The White House strategy underscores a growing divide within the Democratic caucus — and reflects a calculated effort by the administration to assemble a coalition capable of reopening DHS without securing full backing from party leadership.
—Mullin DHS nomination advances after Fetterman breaks with Democrats
Full Senate vote expected next week as committee approval hinges on bipartisan split
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) moved one step closer to becoming Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security after the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee narrowly advanced his nomination in an 8–7 vote, driven by a key crossover from Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).
Fetterman’s decision to side with Republicans proved decisive, particularly after Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), the committee’s chairman, broke with his party and opposed Mullin, citing concerns about the Oklahoma senator’s temperament.
Democratic opposition remained firm otherwise. Committee ranking member Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) voted against the nomination, raising doubts about Mullin’s qualifications and temperament to lead one of the federal government’s largest and most complex agencies.
If confirmed, Mullin would oversee a department of more than 260,000 employees, including key agencies such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), and the U.S. Coast Guard — all central to U.S. border security, transportation safety, and emergency response.
Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) has indicated the full Senate could take up the confirmation vote as early as next week, setting up a high-profile test of bipartisan alignment on a critical national security post.
—Limited military experience shapes congressional debate on Iran war powers
Fewer than 20% of lawmakers have served in uniform as Congress weighs authorization and funding decisions
As Congress debates whether to authorize or fund a potential war against Iran, one factor stands out — relatively few lawmakers have direct military experience.
According to data (link) from the Brookings Institution, just 100 members of the 119th Congress — fewer than one in five across the House and Senate — have served in the armed forces. While that figure marks a modest increase from recent years, it remains historically low.
The contrast is especially stark compared to the 1970s, when military veterans — many of whom served in World War II, the Korean War, or the Vietnam War — made up a dominant share of Congress in the years following the end of the draft.
The decline in veteran representation underscores a broader shift in the composition of Congress, raising questions about how firsthand military experience — or the lack of it — may shape deliberations over war powers and national security decisions.
| WEATHER |
— Southern Plains heatwave intensifies wheat stress, dry pattern persists nationwide
Extreme warmth and prolonged dryness threaten HRW wheat, delay Corn Belt fieldwork, and elevate fire risk
A punishing weather pattern is taking hold across key U.S. agricultural regions, with the Southern Plains — the heart of the hard red winter (HRW) wheat belt — facing the most immediate stress. Forecasts call for completely dry conditions through at least March 30, paired with record-setting heat nearing 100°F over the next 1–5 days, sharply worsening crop stress and significantly elevating wildfire risk.
In the Corn Belt, a prolonged dry window over the next 1–10 days is expected to support early fieldwork, but conditions diverge thereafter. A wet pattern shift around March 31 is projected to benefit central and eastern areas, while the western Corn Belt remains locked in a persistent heat regime, with temperatures running 15–25°F above normal over the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Mid-South and Southeast will also contend with limited rainfall and rising temperatures through the next 10 days, delaying meaningful precipitation until the 11–15-day outlook window.
Taken together, the outlook points to mounting moisture stress in wheat regions, accelerated early-season activity in row crop areas, and heightened fire danger across multiple regions, with broader implications for crop conditions and spring planting timelines.
—NWS outlook: Record-breaking heat wave continues in the West while expanding into the central U.S. this weekend… …Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions in the northern/central High Plains through Saturday… …Periods of wintry weather expected in the northern Great Lakes and New England.
