Trump’s China Trip Not in Jeopardy, But Delay Possible: Leavitt
Strike at JBS plant in Greeley, Colo. begins | USDA seeks to expand agricultural survey data collection
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Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 15
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 15
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 16, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
Top Stories
— Trump threatens to delay Xi summit, casting uncertainty over U.S./China reset: President Donald Trump said he may postpone a planned Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if China does not help address the Strait of Hormuz crisis, raising uncertainty around ongoing efforts to stabilize bilateral trade and economic relations.
— Bessent signals stable U.S./China trade relations despite summit uncertainty: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said recent U.S./China talks were productive and stressed that any delay to a Trump/Xi meeting would likely be logistical rather than diplomatic, even as negotiations continue on tariffs, agriculture purchases and critical minerals.
— China says talks with U.S. continue on Trump visit despite Hormuz dispute: Beijing confirmed it remains in communication with Washington about Trump’s potential visit, urging de-escalation in the Middle East conflict while avoiding commitments to military involvement in protecting Gulf shipping routes.
— Allies react carefully to Trump call for naval patrols in Strait of Hormuz: Major powers including the United Kingdom, France, Japan and South Korea expressed concern about energy security but stopped short of committing warships to reopen the strategic oil corridor disrupted by the Iran conflict.
— USDA seeks to expand agricultural survey data collection: USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is proposing larger sample sizes for key crop surveys and reinstating the Agricultural Coverage Evaluation Survey as the department reviews how to improve federal agricultural statistics.
Financial Markets
— Equities today: Global markets traded mixed as oil above $100 per barrel complicates the inflation outlook ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision, while U.S. stock futures edged higher following Friday’s declines.
— Three market headwinds and key indicators investors should watch: The Sevens Report highlights rising oil prices from the U.S.–Iran conflict, stress in private credit markets and uncertainty over AI investment returns as the three key risks shaping equity market volatility.
Ag Markets
— Strike at major JBS beef plant raises concerns for cattle markets: A walkout by roughly 3,800 workers at JBS’s large Greeley, Colorado beef plant could temporarily reduce slaughter capacity, potentially pressuring fed cattle prices while lifting wholesale beef costs if the disruption continues.
— Pork exports open 2026 strong as Mexico leads growth; beef variety meat values hit record: U.S. pork exports rose 3% in January led by strong Mexican demand, while beef shipments fell due to China disruptions, but record-high variety-meat exports helped sustain overall export value.
Energy Markets & Policy
— Brent oil holds above $100 as Gulf attacks raise supply fears: Oil prices remain elevated after attacks near the UAE port of Fujairah and U.S. strikes on Iranian facilities heightened concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
— California fuel policy under scrutiny as prices surge: A Wall Street Journal commentary argues that California’s regulatory policies and refinery closures have contributed to the nation’s highest gasoline prices and increased reliance on imported fuel.
Trade Policy
— U.S., Ecuador finalize trade deal: A new bilateral agreement expands U.S. agricultural market access, resolves import licensing issues and grants Ecuador tariff relief on products such as bananas, coffee and cocoa.
China
— China retail sales rise during Lunar New Year but underlying demand remains weak: Consumer spending increased 2.8% in early 2026 boosted by holiday travel, though property sector weakness and cautious consumers continue to weigh on China’s broader economic outlook.
Transportation & Logistics
— TSA staffing crisis deepens as shutdown drags on: Hundreds of TSA officers have resigned or taken leave after missing paychecks during the partial government shutdown, prompting airline leaders to warn of growing airport disruptions.
Weather
— Major storm system brings blizzard conditions to Midwest and severe weather threat to East Coast: A powerful storm is delivering heavy snow and whiteout conditions across the Great Lakes while threatening tornadoes and damaging winds across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
— NWS outlook: Forecasters warn the winter storm will continue impacting the Midwest and Great Lakes today while severe thunderstorms sweep across much of the eastern United States, alongside early heat and fire-weather risks emerging in the western U.S.
| TOP STORIES—Trump threatens to delay Xi summit, casting uncertainty over U.S./China resetFinancial Times reports remarks risk derailing diplomatic momentum as officials work toward trade and economic agreements President Donald Trump has cast doubt on a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying he could postpone the meeting if Beijing does not help address the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could complicate efforts by both governments to stabilize relations. The visit to Beijing, which would mark Trump’s first trip to China in nearly a decade, had been expected to cap weeks of diplomatic groundwork aimed at rebooting U.S./China ties after years of trade tensions and strategic rivalry. Senior officials — including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng — have been holding talks in Paris (March 15-16) to prepare possible economic agreements for the summit. However, Trump’s comments tied the meeting to China’s response to the Middle East conflict. He has urged countries that depend heavily on Gulf energy supplies — including China — to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil shipments. Beijing has been cautious about being drawn into the conflict and has resisted linking the summit to military cooperation in the Gulf. Analysts cited by the Financial Times say a delay might allow China to avoid taking a clear stance on the war, but a cancellation could undermine the fragile diplomatic stability the two countries have recently been trying to rebuild. Despite the uncertainty, negotiators from both countries are continuing economic discussions covering areas such as agriculture purchases, critical minerals, and broader “managed trade” mechanisms that could serve as deliverables if the leaders ultimately meet. Of note: “I don’t think the meeting is in jeopardy, but it’s quite possible the meeting could be delayed,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says. “These are leader-to-leader conversations that are currently taking place,” she says during an interview with Fox News. If the trip is delayed, the White House “will provide those dates very soon,” she adds. Bottom Line: Trump’s suggestion that he might postpone the summit injects new uncertainty into a tentative U.S./China diplomatic thaw — just as officials are working to assemble trade and economic agreements that could be finalized when the two leaders meet. —Bessent signals stable U.S./China trade relations despite summit uncertaintyTreasury secretary says trade meetings with Beijing were productive and cautions markets not to interpret potential Trump–Xi schedule changes as diplomatic tension U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that recent trade discussions with China were “very good,” emphasizing that Washington and Beijing currently maintain a stable economic relationship even as uncertainty surrounds a potential meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Speaking in a CNBC interview, Bessent said the talks covered a new tariff framework and broader trade arrangements, suggesting both sides are continuing to explore mechanisms to manage economic tensions while preserving trade flows between the world’s two largest economies. Summit timing still uncertain. Bessent acknowledged that the planned Trump–Xi meeting could be rescheduled, but he stressed that any change would not reflect a breakdown in relations. According to the Treasury secretary, a delay would likely be due to logistical considerations or a decision by Trump to remain in the United States amid the ongoing war with Iran, rather than any dispute with Beijing. He also cautioned financial markets against interpreting scheduling changes as evidence of worsening geopolitical tensions between the two countries. Tariffs remain central to discussions. Bessent confirmed that negotiators discussed the structure of a new tariff regime, indicating that trade policy remains a core issue in the bilateral relationship. The comments come after officials from both countries held economic talks in Paris that sources described as “remarkably stable,” with discussions covering agriculture, critical minerals, and mechanisms for managing trade imbalances. Reuters reported that the two sides held what were labeled “remarkably stable” talks, quoting sources that said the discussions would potentially set up “deliverables” for the Trump/Xi meeting, but the sources also said that the two leaders would have the final say. The Bessent/He session took place for more than 6 hours Sunday and Chinese officials were open to potentially purchasing additional US agricultural products like poultry, beef and non-soybean crops, while noting China was still committed to buying 25 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans over the next three years. Critical minerals were another key discussion point, with the U.S. pushing for China to loosen its controls on those goods. The report said the two sides “found some ways to loosen up” more challenging areas on critical minerals, but no specifics were provided. Strategic Context: The Treasury secretary’s remarks appear aimed at calming markets and maintaining confidence in U.S./China economic ties at a moment of heightened global uncertainty. Oil markets remain volatile due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while investors are also watching for signals ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy decision. For the Trump administration, maintaining predictable trade relations with China has become increasingly important as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten energy supply chains and global economic stability. —China says talks with U.S. continue on Trump visit despite Hormuz disputeBeijing signals ongoing diplomacy as Trump pressures major powers to help secure key oil shipping lane China said Monday it remains in communication with the United States about President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing later this month, even after Trump suggested he could delay the trip if Beijing does not help address the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. According to reporting from the South China Morning Post, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said the two governments are still discussing arrangements for the summit and emphasized the importance of high-level diplomacy between the world’s two largest economies. “We are in communication” regarding the visit, Lin said, adding that head-of-state diplomacy plays an “irreplaceable role” in stabilizing U.S./China relations. The White House has indicated Trump’s visit is expected to take place March 31 through April 2, though Beijing has not formally confirmed the schedule. Pressure over the Strait of Hormuz. The uncertainty surrounding the trip comes after Trump urged countries that depend heavily on Persian Gulf oil — including China — to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said it was reasonable to expect countries benefiting from the waterway to contribute to its security.“It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump said, adding that the visit to Beijing could be postponed depending on China’s response. On social media, Trump also called on China, Britain, France, Japan and South Korea to send naval forces to help secure the strategic shipping route, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies. Beijing urges de-escalation. China did not directly address whether it would send warships to help secure the waterway. Instead, Lin stressed the broader economic risks posed by the conflict and called for restraint. China “calls on all sides to immediately stop military operations, avoid further escalation and prevent regional turbulence from affecting global economic growth,” Lin said. Beijing has condemned the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, describing the attacks as violations of Iran’s sovereignty. China is one of Iran’s most important trading partners and a major buyer of its oil, making the conflict particularly sensitive for Beijing. Rubio sanctions issue may be resolved. Lin’s comments also suggested that sanctions China imposed on Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his time in the U.S. Senate may no longer be in force. Beijing sanctioned Rubio twice in 2020 over his criticism of China’s policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. But when asked about the issue Monday, Lin indicated those sanctions targeted Rubio’s actions as a senator — leaving open the possibility he could travel to China with Trump.The South China Morning Post previously reported that Rubio is expected to accompany the president on the Beijing trip. Strategic backdrop. The diplomatic maneuvering underscores how the Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are spilling into broader geopolitics — including U.S./China relations and global energy security. With oil prices hovering near $100 per barrel and shipping through the Gulf constrained, the planned Trump/Xi summit is emerging as a potential venue not only for trade discussions but also for coordination on stabilizing global energy flows and reducing tensions in the region. —Allies react carefully to Trump call for naval patrols in Strait of HormuzKey powers signal concern over energy security but stop short of committing warships as Iran conflict disrupts global oil shipping Several major U.S. allies and trading partners responded cautiously after President Donald Trump urged them to deploy warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S./Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran’s attempts to disrupt shipping. “I really am demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory,” Trump told reporters Sunday on Air Force One, declining to name specific countries. “It’s the place from which they get their energy, and they should come and they should help us protect it.” He added that China is very reliant on oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz and that they should come in and help secure the corridor. In an interview earlier Sunday with the Financial Times, Trump said he could delay his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help unblock strait. He also warned in that interview that NATO would face a “very bad” future if member states fail to help in Hormuz. Trump specifically called on China, the United Kingdom, France, Japan and South Korea to assist in protecting the strategic waterway, which normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil exports. So far, however, governments have largely stopped short of making firm commitments. United Kingdom. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK won’t join the U.S./Israeli war on Iran but will work with partners on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after President Donald Trump called on allies to send ships to the region. “We will not be drawn into the wider war,” Starmer said Monday during a press conference in Downing Street. “Ultimately we have to open the Strait of Hormuz. That is not a simple task.” British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said London is examining “any options” to restore shipping through the strait and is coordinating with allies. He emphasized that the “best and simplest way” to reopen the waterway would be a de-escalation of the conflict, signaling reluctance to escalate militarily. Japan. Officials warned that Tokyo faces significant legal and political hurdles before sending naval forces. Japan’s pacifist constitution restricts military involvement in conflicts, and ruling Liberal Democratic Party policy chief Takayuki Kobayashi said any deployment would require careful consideration. The issue may surface during Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s upcoming White House meeting with Trump. South Korea. President Lee Jae Myung’s office said Seoul will coordinate closely with Washington, but it offered no commitment to sending ships. China. Beijing — the largest buyer of Iranian oil — has not responded publicly to Trump’s request but has previously urged an immediate end to hostilities in the region. France. President Emmanuel Macron has suggested the French navy could escort commercial vessels, though only if the conflict stabilizes. Macron recently spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and pressed Tehran to ensure freedom of navigation through the strait. Of note: The U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in an interview Monday. “The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” Bessent told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan. The muted responses underscore the diplomatic balancing act facing many governments — protecting energy supplies and global shipping while avoiding deeper involvement in a rapidly escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf.The Financial Times reports that President Donald Trump cautioned that NATO’s future could be jeopardized if allies fail to assist U.S. efforts tied to the Iran war, particularly protecting global energy shipping routes. —USDA seeks to expand agricultural survey data collectionAgency requests public input on increasing sample sizes for key crop surveys and reinstating evaluation program as scrutiny of federal statistics grows USDA is seeking public input on plans to expand several of its core agricultural data-collection efforts, according to a notice published in the Federal Register (link). USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is proposing to increase the sample size for the Crop Acreage and Grain Stocks components of its Quarterly Agricultural Surveys in order to improve the accuracy and reliability of market-sensitive production data. The agency also plans to reinstate the Agricultural Coverage Evaluation Survey (ACES), which is designed to assess the completeness and quality of NASS survey coverage across the agricultural sector. In the Federal Register notice, USDA outlined its rationale for expanding the surveys and invited stakeholders to submit comments on the proposed information collection changes. The move comes as USDA statistics face heightened scrutiny across the agricultural industry. In February, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a request for information seeking recommendations on how to improve the accuracy, transparency and usefulness of USDA statistical reporting. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets traded mixed as escalating hostilities in the Persian Gulf kept oil prices elevated, complicating the inflation outlook and reinforcing expectations that most central banks will hold interest rates steady at policy meetings this week. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, with wide expectations of no change in rates. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures moved higher after major North American equity markets ended Friday’s session in negative territory.
In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong +1.5%. China -0.3%. India +1.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt flat.
—Three market headwinds and key indicators investors should watch
Sevens Report highlights geopolitical risks, credit stress, and AI uncertainty as the main forces shaping market volatility
A new analysis in the Sevens Report identifies three major headwinds currently weighing on U.S. equities and outlines specific indicators investors should monitor to determine whether risks are improving or deteriorating. While the ongoing U.S./Iran conflict has dominated headlines, analysts emphasize that three simultaneous risks — geopolitical tensions, private credit stress, and uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence investment — are collectively influencing market direction.
Market headwind 1 — U.S./Iran war
Indicator to watch: Oil prices. The conflict between the United States and Iran has driven oil prices sharply higher, and equities are currently moving inversely with crude prices. The report notes that oil trading above $100 per barrel represents a clear short-term headwind for stocks because it raises inflation risks and delays potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
However, the report stresses that elevated oil prices alone do not necessarily signal a structural bear market. Instead, the key signal for improvement would be crude prices retreating toward $80 per barrel or lower, which would reduce inflation pressures and stabilize investor sentiment.
Market headwind 2 — Private credit concerns
Indicator to watch: Baa credit spreads. Stress in the private credit market has intensified as several funds have limited redemptions and large financial institutions have begun marking down certain loans. Recent examples include loan write-downs by major banks and redemption halts at some private credit funds.
These pressures are reflected in rising Baa corporate credit spreads, which have climbed to their highest level since May 2025. While spreads remain below the 2.0% threshold that would indicate more severe credit stress, that level is viewed as a critical warning point for markets. A move above it could signal broader financial system strain and trigger increased volatility in equities.
Market headwind 3 — AI investment anxiety
Indicator to watch: IGV software ETF. Concerns about the long-term economics of artificial intelligence remain another underlying risk for equities. Two major worries persist:
• Massive capital spending on AI infrastructure may not generate sufficient returns.
• AI technologies could disrupt entire sectors — particularly software — altering traditional business models.
The report identifies the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) as a key gauge of market sentiment toward AI-related software companies. The ETF has recently rebounded from late-February lows, but a break below approximately $77 per share would likely signal renewed negative sentiment toward AI investments and broader technology stocks.
Bottom Line: The Sevens Report concludes that although these risks are significant, none currently represent a definitive market-changing threat. Each could ease quickly — particularly the geopolitical risk tied to the Middle East conflict — which could allow equities to rebound. However, analysts warn that if any of the indicators deteriorate significantly — particularly oil prices surging further, credit spreads widening beyond key thresholds, or AI-related tech stocks breaking lower — investors may need to shift toward more defensive positioning as volatility persists.
| AG MARKETS |
—Strike at major JBS beef plant raises concerns for cattle markets
Walkout at large Colorado processing facility threatens to disrupt slaughter capacity, pressure fed cattle prices and lift wholesale beef costs if the dispute drags on
A labor strike at a major beef processing plant owned by JBS in Greeley, Colorado is raising concerns across the cattle industry, with analysts warning that even a short disruption could ripple through fed cattle markets, packer margins and wholesale beef prices.
Roughly 3,800 workers at the plant — represented by the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 7 — walked out after contract negotiations stalled following months of talks between union leaders and the company. Union officials say workers overwhelmingly authorized the strike amid disputes over wages, health-care costs and workplace policies.
One of the nation’s largest beef plants. The Greeley facility is one of the largest beef slaughterhouses in the United States and typically processes about 5,000 to 6,000 head of cattle per day, making it a critical node in the national beef supply chain.
While the plant represents only a small share of overall U.S. slaughter capacity — roughly 4% to 5% of daily throughput — disruptions can quickly affect regional cattle markets because feedlots rely on a steady flow of packing capacity to move market-ready animals.
JBS said it has offered a competitive contract and plans to continue operating the plant with available staff while shifting some production to other facilities to limit disruptions.
Short-term pressure on fed cattle. If the strike significantly reduces slaughter capacity, feedlots in surrounding states — including Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas — could face temporary bottlenecks.
With fewer cattle being processed, packers may reduce bids for fed cattle, putting short-term downward pressure on cash cattle prices in the region.
Feedlot operators may also be forced to hold cattle longer than planned, increasing feed costs and raising the risk of heavier weights that can trigger price discounts.
Boxed-beef prices could rise. Reduced processing volumes could tighten beef supplies, potentially pushing wholesale boxed-beef prices higher.
This dynamic — weaker cattle prices alongside stronger beef prices — has occurred during past plant disruptions, including the pandemic-era shutdowns in 2020. For packers, the result can be a margin squeeze, as reduced slaughter volumes limit revenue while higher beef prices do not fully offset lost throughput.
Futures markets watching closely. Live cattle futures often react negatively when slaughter disruptions occur because the immediate impact is reduced demand for fed cattle. However, prices can rebound if wholesale beef values surge due to tighter supplies. Market participants will be watching closely to see whether other large packers — including Tyson Foods and Cargill — absorb some of the displaced cattle.
Broader industry implications. The strike comes at a sensitive time for the beef sector. The U.S. cattle herd remains near multi-decade lows after years of drought-driven herd liquidation, leaving supplies tight and beef prices elevated. Because of those tight supplies, even localized processing disruptions can create volatility in cattle markets and beef prices.
Analysts say the key factor will be the duration of the strike. A brief disruption may have limited national impact, while a prolonged stoppage could tighten beef supplies and amplify market volatility across the industry.
—Pork exports open 2026 strong as Mexico leads growth; beef variety meat values hit record
Solid pork demand and high-value beef byproducts offset weaker beef volumes amid continued China market disruption
U.S. pork exports began 2026 on a strong footing, rising modestly year-over-year in January as robust demand from Mexico and other key markets supported shipments, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
January pork exports totaled 250,861 metric tons, up 3% from a year earlier, while export value increased 4% to $692.1 million. Mexico again led growth, with additional year-over-year gains to Japan, South Korea, Canada, Central America, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, ASEAN markets and Taiwan, underscoring broad international demand for U.S. pork.
Beef exports, however, were lower than a year ago, largely due to the prolonged market disruption in China. January shipments totaled 92,558 metric tons, down 10% year-over-year, though export value declined only 3% to $780.1 million as higher prices helped offset the drop in volume.
Despite the reduced shipments, export value per head of fed slaughter exceeded $415, the highest level since March. USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said the strong per-head value reflects continued demand across other global markets even while China remains largely absent.
Excluding China, the data show a stronger underlying performance. Without China in the comparison, beef export volume increased 5% and export value climbed 16%, with shipments rising to South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Caribbean, ASEAN markets and South America, while export value also improved to Mexico, Canada and Central America.
One of the most notable bright spots came from beef variety meats, which posted exceptional growth. January exports reached 27,511 metric tons, up 6% from a year ago and the largest total in more than four years. Export value surged 46% to a record $126 million, surpassing the previous monthly record set in December.
The strong performance in variety meats and resilient demand across multiple markets helped offset the China disruption, reinforcing the importance of diversified export destinations for U.S. beef and pork producers.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Monday: Brent oil holds above $100 as Gulf attacks raise supply fears
New strikes near Strait of Hormuz and U.S. action against Iranian oil facilities keep markets on edge despite strategic reserve release
Oil prices eased slightly but remained above $100 per barrel, with Brent crude trading at its highest level since July 2022 as escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf continue to threaten global energy supplies.
Brent rose to nearly just $102 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was just over $95 a barrel.
The latest spike in market anxiety followed a second attack in three days on Fujairah, a major oil export port in the United Arab Emirates located just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally handles about one-fifth of global crude shipments. Oil loading operations at the port were suspended as officials assess damage from the strike, which came after a drone attack on Saturday that had already disrupted shipments from one of the region’s key export routes.
Meanwhile, the United States confirmed strikes on military facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil export hub. Iranian state media said shipments from the island were continuing despite the attacks, leaving markets uncertain about whether significant supply losses will materialize.
President Donald Trump has urged major global powers to help defend commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as vessel traffic through the corridor has slowed sharply since the conflict escalated. Some tankers have begun cautiously attempting the passage again while governments work to stabilize energy flows.
To cushion markets against potential disruptions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is coordinating what officials describe as a record 400-million-barrel release from strategic reserves. Traders are watching closely for evidence that the conflict is causing sustained production or export losses, which could push crude prices even higher.
— California fuel policy under scrutiny as prices surge
WSJ commentary argues state regulations and refinery losses are driving the nation’s highest gasoline costs
In a Wall Street Journal commentary, columnist Allysia Finley argues that California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s energy policies are a key driver of the state’s soaring gasoline prices — now averaging $5.48 per gallon, far above the national average — and warns that refinery closures could also raise costs for military jet fuel, posing potential national-security risks.
The column contends that California gasoline prices have risen faster than the national average during the current Middle East conflict, climbing about 91 cents in the past month, compared with roughly 74 cents nationwide. The author attributes the larger increase partly to the state’s reliance on imported crude oil and refined gasoline, with about 60% of refinery crude coming from overseas and roughly 15% of gasoline imported from foreign refineries.
Finley argues that California’s regulatory environment — including limits on drilling, the state’s cap-and-trade program, the low-carbon fuel standard, strict permitting rules and the nation’s highest gasoline taxes — has reduced in-state production and refining capacity. Since Newsom took office in 2019, the column says California oil production has fallen about 40% and roughly a quarter of refining capacity has closed, increasing dependence on imports.
The commentary also highlights the widening price gap between California and the rest of the country. Californians paid about 90 cents per gallon more than the U.S. average when Newsom took office, but the difference has grown to roughly $1.80 per gallon during the current energy disruption.
Finley further warns that additional refinery shutdowns could raise jet-fuel costs for military installations in the western United States, which rely on California refineries for supply. Increased dependence on imported fuel, the column argues, could create vulnerabilities if global supply routes were disrupted during a major conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.
The commentary concludes that California’s energy policies — particularly potential increases in carbon allowance prices under the state’s cap-and-trade system — could push gasoline prices even higher and accelerate refinery closures, deepening the state’s reliance on imported fuel.
| TRADE POLICY |
—U.S., Ecuador finalize trade deal
Agreement expands agricultural market access, resolves licensing issues and eases tariffs on select imports
The United States and Ecuador finalized a bilateral trade agreement on March 13 aimed at expanding agricultural market access and resolving longstanding regulatory barriers, according to a summary released by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).
Under the deal, Ecuador agreed to implement automatic renewal of import licenses for U.S. agricultural products, a step designed to reduce regulatory delays that have complicated exports of U.S. farm goods. Ecuador will also recognize the U.S. food safety system for meat and dairy products and accept U.S. inspection certificates, easing the approval process for those exports.
The agreement also addresses disputes over geographical indications (GIs). Ecuador pledged to maintain market access for U.S. producers selling foods under widely used product names such as asiago, feta, fontina, gorgonzola, gruyere, parmesan, black forest ham, prosciutto, and salami. Quito said it will protect only “legitimate” geographical indications, ensuring those common product names remain available for U.S. exporters.
In return, the United States will grant Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff treatment to Ecuador for certain qualifying goods. The provision eliminates tariffs on products that cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced in the United States — including bananas, coffee and cocoa.
The agreement reflects a broader U.S. effort to stabilize trade relationships in Latin America while securing improved conditions for U.S. agricultural exports. For Ecuador, the deal preserves access to the U.S. market for key commodities while easing trade frictions that had affected agricultural shipments in recent years.
| CHINA |
—China retail sales rise during lunar new year but underlying demand remains weak
Holiday travel and spending provide a short-term boost, while property slump and cautious consumers continue to weigh on China’s domestic economy
China’s retail sales rose modestly in the first two months of 2026, buoyed by Lunar New Year spending, though the overall pace of growth remains historically weak as the country struggles with a prolonged property downturn and cautious consumer sentiment.
According to data released Monday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, retail goods sales increased 2.8% year over year in January–February, beating the 2.5% growth forecast in a Reuters poll. The figure marks a rebound from 0.9% growth in December, but still represents the weakest start to the year in decades outside the pandemic period.
The Lunar New Year holiday — China’s largest annual travel period — helped drive consumption. The nine-day holiday generated 803 billion yuan ($116 billion) in tourism spending across 596 million domestic trips, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Total holiday spending increased from 677 billion yuan a year earlier, though average spending per trip slipped slightly, suggesting consumers remain cautious.
Certain retail categories posted strong gains. Tobacco and liquor sales jumped 19.1%, while gold, silver and jewelry purchases rose 13%, reflecting traditional holiday gift-giving and celebratory spending.
However, broader economic signals remain mixed. China’s property sector continues to deteriorate, with real estate investment falling 11.1% year over year in the first two months of the year. New home sales dropped 21.8% by value, and prices declined in 65 of the 70 cities tracked by the government, underscoring persistent weakness in a sector that has historically driven household wealth and consumption.
Investment indicators offered a modest improvement. Fixed-asset investment grew 1.8%, reversing a 3.8% decline recorded in 2025, supported by infrastructure projects such as airport construction and gas production facilities.
Some economists cautioned that the investment rebound may partly reflect statistical changes. Revisions to the government’s methodology for calculating last year’s data make comparisons difficult.
External factors are also becoming increasingly important to China’s outlook. So far, Beijing appears to have managed the economic impact of the Middle East conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, though analysts warn that prolonged instability could ripple through global markets.
Despite soft domestic consumption, China’s export sector remains strong, helping support growth. Overseas shipments rose 21.8% year over year in the first two months of 2026, led by strong demand for semiconductors, automobiles and ships.
For now, that export strength is reducing pressure on Beijing to stimulate consumer spending. The government recently approved 250 billion yuan for consumer trade-in subsidies for vehicles and electronics this year, down from 300 billion yuan in 2025, signaling a more cautious approach to stimulus.
Economists say China could still meet its official GDP growth target of roughly 4.5% to 5% in 2026 if export momentum continues. But a global slowdown — or weakening demand for Chinese technology products — could force Beijing to ramp up domestic stimulus later in the year.
| TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS |
—TSA staffing crisis deepens as shutdown drags on
Airline CEOs urge Congress to restore DHS funding as unpaid security officers quit, and airport disruptions intensify
One month into the partial federal government shutdown, the nation’s aviation security system is beginning to show serious strain as hundreds of Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers have resigned and others have taken unscheduled leave after missing paychecks.
The disruption stems from the lapse in funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees the TSA, after negotiations between Republicans and Democrats over immigration enforcement and border policy broke down in February.
TSA workers missed their first full paycheck over the weekend, forcing many employees — who are required to work despite the shutdown — to continue screening passengers without pay. The financial pressure has led some officers to leave their positions altogether while others have taken time off, contributing to growing staffing shortages at airports across the country.
Airport operations are beginning to feel the impact. Longer security lines and flight delays have been reported at several major hubs as fewer officers are available to staff screening checkpoints. Industry officials warn the disruptions could worsen if the shutdown continues.
In a letter sent Sunday to congressional leaders, the chief executives of major U.S. airlines urged lawmakers to resolve the impasse quickly. The airline leaders warned that the ongoing funding lapse threatens the reliability of the country’s aviation system and places unnecessary strain on federal aviation employees.
The executives called on Congress to immediately restore funding for DHS and ensure that aviation security workers receive pay even during future shutdowns, arguing that airport screening and air traffic safety are essential services that should not be disrupted by political disputes.
The aviation industry has historically been one of the first sectors to feel the operational effects of government shutdowns because many workers — including TSA agents and air traffic controllers — must continue working without pay until funding is restored.
With the shutdown now approaching its second month and no clear resolution in sight, airline officials and transportation experts warn that continued staffing losses at the TSA could lead to broader travel disruptions just as the spring travel season begins.
| WEATHER |
— Major storm system brings blizzard conditions to Midwest and severe weather threat to East Coast
Powerful system packing high winds, heavy snow and potential tornadoes sweeps from the Great Lakes to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
A powerful late-winter storm is sweeping across the eastern United States, bringing blizzard conditions to parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes while threatening damaging winds and possible tornadoes across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Millions of residents in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes remained under blizzard warnings Monday as the storm intensified, producing heavy snow and strong winds that sharply reduced visibility and created hazardous travel conditions.
Meanwhile, forecasters warned that the southern and eastern portions of the storm system could produce significant severe weather. Meteorologists say damaging wind gusts topping 75 miles per hour, large hail and tornadoes are possible across a broad swath of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 4 out of 5 severe weather risk for parts of South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland — an unusually high alert level that signals a strong likelihood of widespread damaging storms.
A Level 3 “enhanced risk” zone stretches even farther north and south, covering areas from Georgia through Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, putting tens of millions of people in the path of potentially dangerous weather.
The sprawling system strengthened Sunday as multiple lines of thunderstorms raced from the Gulf Coast toward the Great Lakes, producing wind gusts approaching 80 miles per hour and triggering numerous severe weather warnings overnight.
As the storm pushed toward the Appalachian Mountains early Monday, forecasters warned that the combination of strong atmospheric instability and powerful upper-level winds could support the development of fast-moving storm clusters and isolated tornadoes, particularly across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.
In the northern tier of the system, cold air wrapping around the storm has generated heavy snowfall and near-whiteout conditions across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Officials in several states urged motorists to avoid unnecessary travel as blowing snow and ice made highways treacherous.
The system is expected to move northeast through the day, bringing severe thunderstorms to major population centers along the East Coast before gradually weakening late Monday night into Tuesday.
Emergency officials across the region are urging residents to closely monitor weather alerts and prepare for rapidly changing conditions as the storm continues its march across the eastern United States.
—NWS outlook: Major winter storm continues today across the upper Midwest to the upper Great Lakes… …Severe thunderstorms likely to sweep across the entire eastern U.S. with the highest threat over the interior Mid-Atlantic late today… …An anomalously early heatwave begins to intensify and expand east across the western U.S…. …Critical Risk of fire weather shifts farther south toward the lower Texas coast today.
