Trump’s State of the Union: Tariffs, Economy and National Security Take Center Stage
Hartman white paper: GLP-1s reshape food, wellness, and consumer behavior | USTR Greer updates on Trump trade policy, tariff levels, China
| LINKS |
Link: EPA RVO Proposal Nears — Washington Signals Higher Biofuel
Targets as SRE Policy Takes Center Stage
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 22
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 22
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Feb. 26, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Trump’s State of the Union: Tariffs, economy, and national security
President Donald Trump centered his address on tariffs, economic strength, immigration enforcement, and deterrence-based foreign policy, framing trade as a core economic tool while promoting a “peace through strength” approach. Agriculture received little attention beyond SNAP and brief references to falling egg and beef prices, and the speech closed with strongly patriotic messaging and campaign-style themes.
— Greer signals escalation of global tariff plan
USTR Jamieson Greer said the 10% global tariff is a starting point, with 15% rates expected for some countries and potentially higher tiers for others — indicating a more targeted, country-specific tariff framework as the administration reshapes policy after recent court rulings.
— China tariff levels hold steady
Greer signaled no immediate increase in tariffs on China, emphasizing stability and continuity under existing agreements as the U.S. seeks to avoid escalating tensions while maintaining leverage.
— U.S. signals planned USMCA revisions
The administration is pursuing targeted updates to USMCA through side protocols rather than reopening the full pact — focusing on market access, enforcement gaps, energy disputes, dairy access, and trans-shipment concerns.
— Year-round E15 legislation still in negotiation
Lawmakers continue negotiating year-round E15 fuel legislation, with refinery exemption issues slowing progress and preventing a finalized House-ready package.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today
Global equities moved higher following the SOTU, with markets focused on upcoming earnings and limited economic data; sentiment reflected relief over no major policy surprises overnight.
— Equities yesterday
Major U.S. indexes closed higher, led by gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 amid continued risk-on sentiment.
— Mosaic misses expectations
The Mosaic Company reported weak quarterly earnings due to softer phosphorus demand, highlighting cautious farm spending and pressure on fertilizer volumes despite stable production outlook guidance.
— Mortgage rates hit lowest since 2022
Mortgage rates fell to multi-year lows, boosting refinancing activity, though home purchase demand remained weak due to affordability pressures.
AG MARKETS
— Indonesia purchase commitments questioned
Reuters reporting suggests Indonesia may struggle to meet ambitious U.S. trade purchase targets for wheat and soybeans due to domestic demand limits and logistical realities, raising uncertainty around compliance.
— Agriculture markets yesterday
Mixed commodity performance: soybeans, soybean products, cotton, feeder cattle, and lean hogs were higher; corn and wheat contracts were lower.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Wednesday: Oil near seven-month highs
Crude prices held firm amid U.S.–Iran tensions and supply risk concerns, though rising U.S. inventories capped upside momentum.
— Tuesday: Oil pulls back
Prices eased as diplomacy with Iran reduced immediate geopolitical risk premiums, offsetting earlier bullish momentum.
CHINA
— China warns U.S. against new Section 301 actions
Beijing criticized renewed U.S. tariff investigations and warned of possible retaliation, signaling trade tensions remain active even as legal frameworks shift following court rulings.
FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY
— GLP-1s reshape food and consumer behavior
A Hartman Group white paper argues GLP-1 medications are becoming a broad cultural and economic disruptor — reshaping appetite, food spending, and product development toward higher-quality, functional foods.
LABOR & IMMIGRATION POLICY
— Strong turnout at ag wage reform press conference
A multi-state coalition urged Congress to make AEWR reforms permanent, arguing wage volatility threatens farm planning, labor stability, and long-term U.S. food security.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook
Clipper systems are expected to bring additional snow to central and eastern regions, while severe weather and critical fire conditions remain concerns in parts of the South and High Plains.
| TOP STORIES — Trump’s State of the Union: Tariffs, economy and national security take center stagePresident defends trade strategy, highlights domestic agenda, and projects “peace through strength” abroad President Donald Trump used his record-breaking 107-minute State of the Union address to deliver a strongly patriotic message centered on trade, economic policy, immigration, and foreign affairs — while defending his administration’s direction amid political and legal headwinds. Below is a concise digest of the key themes and takeaways. Tariffs front and center. Trump leaned heavily into his trade agenda, defending newly imposed 10% global tariffs following the recent Supreme Court decision limiting his broader tariff authority. He argued tariffs are generating large amounts of federal revenue and claimed they could eventually reduce reliance on income taxes. The administration’s move — a 150-day tariff action — relies on legal authority that is likely to face additional court scrutiny. While Trump said duties might rise to 15%, no formal increase has yet been implemented. Bottom Line: Trade remains a core pillar of his economic message, with tariffs framed as a revenue and industrial policy tool rather than simply a negotiating lever. A measured tone toward the Supreme Court. Despite prior criticism of the Court’s ruling that struck down parts of his tariff program, Trump moderated his rhetoric during the speech. He described the ruling as “unfortunate,” but avoided naming individual justices. The moment appeared aimed at lowering tensions following days of sharp political backlash. Political read: The administration appears focused on moving forward via alternative trade authorities rather than escalating confrontation with the Court. Defending the economy amid voter skepticism. Trump portrayed the economy as strong and improving, arguing his policies are lowering costs. Key points highlighted:• Claims of easing prices for goods such as fuel and food.• A proposal urging Congress to codify his healthcare framework, designed to shift subsidies toward consumers.• Continued focus on lowering prescription drug costs and limiting private investment firms from buying residential housing. Context: The optimistic tone comes as polling shows persistent voter concerns over affordability and cost of living — suggesting the White House is trying to reclaim the economic narrative ahead of midterm pressure. Congressional stock trading. He urged lawmakers to pass the Stop Insider Trading Act, legislation that would put some stock-trading limits on lawmakers and their families. Trump punctuated the moment by calling out Representative Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, whose husband’s prolific trading was frequently criticized. Retirement plans: Trump suggested that those who don’t have an employer-sponsored retirement plan like a 401(k) would be eligible to join a retirement plan akin to the kind “offered to every federal worker.” Electricity and artificial intelligence: Tapping into a growing consumer concern, the president said that a new “ratepayer protection pledge” would shield households from utility bill increases caused by tech giants’ build-out of data centers in their regions. Real estate: Trump doubled down on a vow to “ban large Wall Street investment firms from buying up” single-family homes, a move that seems aimed at the private equity sector. That initiative has drawn a muted reception in Congress. Iran: diplomacy backed by deterrence. Foreign policy messaging centered on negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. Trump said diplomacy remains the preferred path. However, he emphasized that the U.S. has not heard guarantees Iran will permanently forgo nuclear weapons. The speech reinforced a “peace through strength” framework as military assets remain positioned in the region. Takeaway: The administration signaled openness to talks but paired it with clear deterrent messaging. Hard-line immigration messaging. Immigration produced some of the most partisan moments of the evening. Trump defended strict border enforcement and sharply criticized Democrats. Calls included stronger voter identification laws and renewed emphasis on citizenship-first policy language. The speech generated visible partisan divides inside the chamber, with Republicans applauding and many Democrats remaining seated during key moments. Implication: Immigration remains a political mobilization issue heading toward the 2026 campaign cycle. “War on fraud” initiative. Trump elevated Vice President JD Vance to lead a new anti-fraud initiative. The effort aims to identify misuse of federal funds and reduce government waste. Trump tied the initiative to broader budget and fiscal objectives, suggesting potential savings could aid deficit reduction. Patriotic moments and Olympic recognition. The president opened the evening with a celebratory national moment, honoring the U.S. men’s Olympic hockey team after their gold medal victory and announcing a Presidential Medal of Freedom for goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. Symbolically: The ceremony reinforced the speech’s recurring themes of nationalism, unity, and American achievement. Agriculture received little to no attention during the State of the Union address, with no references to ethanol, year-round E15 fuel, agricultural trade initiatives, or deregulation efforts aimed specifically at the farm sector. President Trump did, however, highlight that the administration has moved 2.4 million Americans off the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps. The speech also omitted any call for Congress to complete work on the proposed Farm Bill 2.0. Of note: Trump said that egg prices had fallen sharply and used them as part of a broader argument that inflation was easing under his policies. In the speech, Trump stated: “The price of eggs is down 60%. Madam Secretary [USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins], thank you.” He made the comment while arguing that grocery and household costs were “plummeting downward,” and grouped eggs with other items he said were becoming cheaper. The line came during a section where he blamed earlier inflation on prior policies and claimed his administration was bringing prices down. Regarding beef prices, Trump said: “…and even beef, which was very high, is starting to come down significantly. Just hold on a little while — we’re getting it down.” Trump had a powerful ending to his speech by noting: “There is no challenge Americans cannot overcome, no frontier too vast for us to conquer, no dream too bold for us to chase, no horizon too distant for us to claim, for our destiny is written by the hand of providence, and these first 250 years were just the beginning. “From the rugged border towns of Texas to the heartland villagesof Michigan, from the sun-kissed shores of Florida to the endlessfields of the Dakotas, and from the historic streets of Philadelphiato right here in our nation’s capital, Washington, D.C., the goldenage of America is upon us. “The revolution that began in 1776 has not ended. It stillcontinues, because the flame of liberty and independence still burnsin the heart of every American patriot. And our future will bebigger, better, brighter, bolder and more glorious than ever before.” Overall takeaway: Trump’s address blended patriotic imagery with sharp policy defenses and campaign-style messaging. The speech sought to:• Reinforce tariffs as central to economic strategy• Reframe economic conditions as improving• Demonstrate strength on immigration and foreign policy• Highlight anti-fraud and fiscal responsibility themes Taken together, the speech signals that the administration intends to campaign heavily on trade, nationalism, and economic resilience — even as legal battles, market uncertainty, and political polarization continue. — Greer signals escalation of global tariff planUSTR says 10% baseline will rise to 15% for some countries, with even higher rates possible U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated Wednesday that the Trump administration’s newly imposed 10% global tariff is only a starting point, saying the rate will rise to 15% for some countries — and potentially higher for others as the administration refines its trade strategy. President Trump will sign a supplemental proclamation to increase the tariff level to 15% where appropriate, USTR Greer said on Bloomberg TV. “We want to have the 10% and we’re looking about how to implement the 15% that the President indicated, because we want to have continuity,” he said. Speaking on Fox Business, Greer said the higher tariff tiers are part of a broader effort to recalibrate U.S. trade relationships following the recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down key elements of the administration’s earlier tariff framework. The administration has since shifted toward alternative statutory authorities, including Section 122, as it seeks to maintain leverage in ongoing trade negotiations. Tiered tariff structure emerging. Greer’s comments suggest the White House is moving toward a tiered tariff model, where trading partners could face different rates depending on negotiations, trade balances, or perceived market barriers. Key takeaways from his remarks include:• 10% remains a baseline rate, but it is not expected to be uniform.• 15% tariffs are likely for a subset of countries.• Higher rates could be applied selectively, signaling a more targeted strategy rather than a single global levy.• The approach appears designed to preserve negotiating leverage while complying with legal constraints after the court ruling. This layered framework mirrors the administration’s broader effort to rebuild tariff authority through narrower, defensible pathways rather than sweeping emergency powers. Trade policy uncertainty persists. Markets and industry groups — including agriculture and manufacturing sectors — are watching closely because differentiated tariff rates could reshape global trade flows. A shift from a flat global tariff toward country-specific levels introduces added uncertainty for supply chains and exporters trying to plan contracts and pricing. The comments also come amid ongoing discussions about launching new investigations under trade statutes such as Section 301 and Section 232, which could form the legal basis for future targeted tariffs. Why this matters. Greer’s remarks reinforce that the administration is not backing away from aggressive tariff policy, but instead adjusting tactics after the legal setback. For exporters — especially U.S. agriculture — the evolving structure could create both risks and opportunities:• Countries facing lower rates may gain competitive access to U.S. markets.• Those targeted with higher levies could retaliate or seek concessions, affecting commodities such as soybeans, corn, and meat exports.• Negotiations tied to tariff tiers may become a key feature of upcoming bilateral talks. Outlook: More clarity will likely come once the White House finalizes the formal order raising the global tariff rate and outlines how countries will be categorized. Until then, businesses and trading partners are left interpreting signals from administration officials — with Greer’s comments indicating that tariff escalation remains very much on the table. — China tariff levels hold steady; U.S. signals de-escalation focusUSTR says current tariff structure on China will remain in place as Washington avoids raising trade tensions U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signaled Wednesday that Washington is not planning to raise tariffs on China, emphasizing stability over escalation as the administration navigates a volatile trade environment following recent court rulings on tariff authority. Speaking on Fox Business, Greer said the U.S. intends to maintain existing tariff levels rather than ratchet up pressure, indicating the administration wants to preserve the framework already negotiated between the two countries. His comments — “we intend to really stick to the deal that we had before” — suggest a continuity strategy rather than a new round of aggressive measures. Policy continuity amid legal and political shifts. The remarks come as the administration continues adjusting its broader tariff strategy after the Supreme Court invalidated key elements of the previous tariff structure. Greer has repeatedly stressed that while the legal tools may evolve, the policy direction remains largely unchanged — a message aimed at reassuring markets and trading partners that a sudden escalation with Beijing is not the immediate goal. This posture aligns with recent messaging from U.S. officials that existing trade agreements and tariff arrangements remain in force even as new statutory paths — such as Section 301, Section 232 and Section 122 — are explored to maintain leverage. China response and trade backdrop. Beijing has responded cautiously, saying it has fulfilled obligations under the 2020 trade framework while warning against any additional tariffs. Chinese officials also signaled they remain open to dialogue through established economic channels, reflecting a mutual interest in avoiding a fresh escalation. (See more details about China’s response in the China section below.) For markets — especially U.S. agriculture — the stability signal matters. Maintaining current tariff levels reduces the risk of another abrupt disruption to trade flows, which has been a recurring concern for exporters watching soybean demand, energy shipments, and broader commodity trade dynamics. Why this matters now• De-escalation tone: USTR messaging suggests restraint rather than new penalties.• Policy continuity: The administration aims to preserve negotiating leverage without triggering another tariff spiral.• Market impact: Stable tariff levels reduce near-term uncertainty for exporters and global supply chains. Next watchpoint: Any future Section 301 investigations or sector-specific actions could still alter the outlook. — U.S. signals planned USMCA revisionsGreer says Washington wants to close market-access “gaps,” tighten enforcement, and add new side protocols with Canada and Mexico The Trump administration is preparing to pursue targeted fixes to the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer outlining a strategy aimed at closing what he described as market-access and enforcement gaps in the pact. Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV, Greer said the agreement broadly works but does not deliver the level of access the U.S. expected in several key sectors. According to Greer, the administration’s approach will not necessarily reopen the entire trade deal but instead add separate protocols with Canada and Mexico that would be attached to the existing framework. The move suggests a narrower renegotiation strategy focused on specific disputes rather than a full rewrite. Key areas the U.S. wants to address. • Energy disputes with Mexico. Washington remains concerned that Mexico’s energy policies are discriminating against U.S. energy producers by favoring state-owned entities. These issues have long been a flashpoint under USMCA’s energy and investment provisions and could become a central negotiating priority if new enforcement language is pursued. • Canadian dairy and alcohol access. Greer also flagged complaints that Canada is limiting shelf access for certain U.S. dairy and alcohol products. The U.S. has previously challenged Canada’s dairy quota systems through USMCA dispute panels, and those tensions appear to be resurfacing as part of this broader push for revisions.• Trans-shipment concerns. Another growing concern is the use of Canada and Mexico as transit points for goods from third countries seeking duty-free access to the U.S. market under USMCA rules. The administration appears intent on tightening rules of origin and enforcement mechanisms to prevent what officials describe as loopholes. What this signals for trade policy. Greer’s comments fit into a broader Trump administration strategy that has increasingly relied on sector-specific adjustments and side agreements rather than sweeping trade overhauls. By adding protocols instead of reopening the entire pact, the U.S. could move faster politically while targeting high-priority areas like energy access, agricultural trade, and supply-chain integrity. For agriculture and food exporters — particularly dairy producers — the renewed focus on Canadian market barriers could signal additional dispute actions or negotiated concessions ahead. Meanwhile, industries tied to North American supply chains will watch closely for any changes to origin rules that could affect sourcing decisions. Why it matters now. The timing comes amid heightened tariff and trade tensions globally and follows broader U.S. efforts to strengthen enforcement mechanisms across existing trade agreements. If Washington successfully adds protocols to USMCA, it may set a precedent for incremental upgrades to other trade deals without fully renegotiating them — a strategy that could reshape North American trade rules over the next year. In short, the administration is framing the next phase of USMCA not as a replacement, but as a tightening of rules to secure more market access and prevent perceived exploitation of duty-free provisions. — Year-round E15 legislation still in negotiationLawmakers continue to work toward a House-ready deal as refinery concerns slow final agreement Efforts to advance legislation allowing year-round sales of E15 fuel remain ongoing, with members of the E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council still negotiating key details and not yet ready to bring a finalized package before the House. According to reporting from Bloomberg, lawmakers involved in the talks say progress is being made but compromises are still needed — particularly around how the proposal addresses refinery compliance and exemptions. Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), a member of the working group, said fellow lawmakers Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) and Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) are working to “thread the needle” and craft a package capable of passing the House floor. The council had been tasked with producing draft legislation by Feb. 15 and moving it forward this week, but members have not yet finalized language. Johnson noted that lawmakers feel a clear sense of urgency, though no updated timeline has been provided. A key sticking point involves small and medium-sized refineries, which reportedly have raised concerns about how the legislation would handle small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The draft framework includes provisions that could limit waiver flexibility for larger refiners while preserving exemptions for smaller facilities — a balance that has proven politically and technically difficult. The outcome of the council’s work carries significant weight for the biofuels industry. Advocates argue that congressional action is now the only durable pathway for nationwide year-round E15 sales, after previous regulatory efforts were overturned in court. Without a legislative fix, expansion of higher-ethanol blends remains uncertain despite ongoing support from farm-state lawmakers and ethanol producers. Overall, negotiations continue as lawmakers attempt to reconcile biofuel expansion goals with refinery compliance concerns, signaling that a final deal may still require additional compromise before reaching the House floor. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: U.S. equity futures are tracking global stocks higher after Trump’s SOTU address did not present markets with any material surprises while trader focus shifts ahead to the critical Q4’25 earnings release from NVDA after the close today. There is one government-shutdown-delayed economic report due to be released: New Home Sales (E: 680K), and a handful of Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (9:35 a.m. ET), Schmid (11:00 a.m. ET), and Musalem (1:20 p.m. ET). In Asia, Japan +2.2%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China +0.7%. India +0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London +1%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Feb. 24 | Point Difference from Feb. 23 | % Difference from Feb. 23 |
| Dow | 49,174.50 | +370.44 | +0.76% |
| Nasdaq | 22,863.68 | +236.41 | +1.04% |
| S&P 500 | 6,890.07 | +52.32 | +0.77% |
—The Mosaic Company misses expectations as phosphorus weakness drags quarterly results
Lower sales volumes highlight cautious farmer spending and pressure on ag input demand
Fertilizer producer The Mosaic Company reported weaker-than-expected quarterly results, with adjusted earnings per share of 22 cents for the quarter ended Dec. 31 — roughly half of what Wall Street had anticipated heading into the release. The miss was driven largely by a downturn in its phosphorus business, underscoring softer demand from growers as producers continue to manage tight operating margins and elevated input costs.
Phosphorus segment under pressure. Mosaic said sales volume in its phosphorus segment declined sharply, falling to 1.3 million metric tons (MMT) compared with 1.6 MMT during the same period a year earlier. The drop reflects slower purchasing behavior by farmers, many of whom have delayed or reduced fertilizer applications as crop margins remain compressed across several major commodities.
The company signaled that lower volumes — rather than pricing alone — were a key factor behind the earnings shortfall, highlighting a broader trend of cautious spending throughout the agricultural input sector.
Updated production and sales outlook. Despite the weak quarter, Mosaic maintained a relatively steady forward production outlook:
•Full-year phosphorus production: at or above 7 MMT
•Full-year potash production: around 9 MMT
For the first quarter, the company projects:
• Phosphorus sales: 1.7 MMT – 1.9 MMT
• Potash sales: 2.0 MMT – 2.2 MMT
Mosaic also said it expects annual capital spending near $1.5 billion, signaling continued investment in operational efficiency and long-term capacity even as near-term demand softens.
Bigger picture — farm economics driving behavior. The results reinforce what many across the ag supply chain are seeing: producers remain disciplined with purchases amid ongoing uncertainty around commodity prices, interest costs, and global trade dynamics. Growers are increasingly focused on cash flow preservation — often stretching application timing or adjusting fertilizer blends — which in turn pressures suppliers tied closely to seasonal volume demand. For the fertilizer sector more broadly, Mosaic’s quarter suggests that demand recovery may depend less on supply constraints and more on improvements in farm profitability and confidence going into spring planting.
—Mortgage rates hit lowest level since 2022
Refinancing rises as lower rates fail to spark homebuying
U.S. mortgage rates fell last week to their lowest levels since 2022, helping lift refinancing activity but doing little to revive home purchases.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 6.09%, while five-year adjustable rates fell to 5.23%, both multi-year lows. Refinancing activity rose more than 4%, reaching its second-highest level in five months.
However, buyer demand remains weak. Applications for home purchases fell 4.7%, reflecting continued affordability pressures as home prices stay near record highs.
Rates hovering just above 6% could still support activity heading into the spring selling season, especially as the administration pushes policies aimed at lowering financing costs through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed security purchases.
| AG MARKETS |
— Questions emerge over Indonesia’s ability to meet U.S. trade purchase targets
Traders and industry groups cite demand limits and import logistics as potential hurdles — while U.S. tariff uncertainty lingers
New scrutiny is emerging around whether Indonesia can realistically meet the agricultural purchase commitments outlined in its trade framework with the U.S., according to reporting by Reuters.
The agreement includes sizable commodity targets, with Indonesia expected to:
• Purchase 2 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat annually, including about 1.1 MMT in 2025
• Increase soybean imports to 3.5 MMT, up from roughly 2.2 MMT previously
• Expand soybean meal imports sharply to 3.8 MMtT compared with recent imports of about 216,257 metric tons
Wheat commitments seen as ambitious: Traders cited in the Reuters report say Indonesia may struggle to expand wheat imports much beyond 1.25–1.3 MMT particularly after already raising purchases to about 1.1 MMtTin 2025 from 750,000 metric tons in 2024.
That suggests the deal’s longer-term wheat targets could exceed the pace of realistic demand growth unless consumption or policy shifts materially.
Soybean demand constraints. Indonesia’s soybean importer association, Akindo, also cautioned that the planned increase may not align with domestic use. The group estimates national soybean consumption at roughly 2.7–2.9 MMT, meaning a 3.5 MMT purchase commitment could overshoot market demand.
Akindo Chair Hidayatullah Suralaga said imports need to be calibrated carefully to avoid disrupting supply balances, underscoring concerns that pledged volumes may be more politically negotiated than market driven.
Soybean meal: state purchasing could reshape trade flows. The soybean meal component may prove more manageable because the Indonesian government has tasked state-owned importer Berdikari with handling feedgrain purchases starting in 2026.
Reports indicate Berdikari could import as much as 5 MMT of soybean meal in 2026 to supply feed mills and smaller poultry producers — even if U.S. product carries a higher cost than competing sources. For context, Indonesia imported roughly 5.96 MMT of soybean meal in 2025, suggesting there is historical precedent for large volumes. Still, industry observers note that centralized purchasing could raise cost and execution risks, especially if global price spreads widen.
Enforcement remains an open question. As with many bilateral trade frameworks, a major unknown is how compliance will be measured and enforced if Indonesia falls short of pledged purchase levels. Analysts say potential penalties — or lack thereof — could determine whether targets become firm obligations or aspirational benchmarks.
Tariff policy uncertainty adds to the picture. Separately, there is still no formal White House order posted confirming the proposed 15% tariff rate adjustment, leaving trade participants waiting for clarity on the broader U.S. tariff framework. That uncertainty continues to influence market expectations around implementation timelines and trade flows.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Feb. 24 | Difference vs Feb. 23 |
| Corn | May | $4.38 1/2 | -1 3/4 cents |
| Soybeans | May | $11.55 1/4 | +5 1/2 cents |
| Soybean meal | May | $314.40 | +$1.90 |
| Soybean oil | May | 60.50 | +62 points |
| SRW wheat | May | $5.73 1/4 | -1/2 cent |
| HRW wheat | May | $5.67 | -5 1/4 cents |
| Spring wheat | May | $5.95 1/2 | -1 3/4 cents |
| Cotton | May | 65.56 cents | +42 points |
| Live cattle | April | $239.10 | -$0.15 |
| Feeder cattle | March | $365.10 | +$0.80 |
| Lean hogs | April | $95.80 | +$2.10 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Wednesday: Oil holds near seven-month highs
U.S./Iran tensions support prices as markets watch diplomacy and rising inventories
Oil prices stayed near seven-month highs Wednesday as traders weighed potential supply risks tied to escalating U.S.–Iran tensions against signs of growing crude inventories.
Brent crude rose to about $71.10 per barrel and WTI climbed to roughly $65.85, supported by concerns that conflict could disrupt Middle East supply — particularly from Iran, a key OPEC producer.
Markets were also watching upcoming U.S./Iran talks in Geneva, while President Donald Trump warned that Iran would face consequences without a nuclear deal.
Limiting gains, the American Petroleum Institute reported a sharp 11.43-million-barrel increase in U.S. oil stockpiles, reinforcing concerns that global supply may be outpacing demand.
—Tuesday: Oil prices pull back as U.S./Iran talks ease tensions
Diplomacy, supply signals and macro uncertainty weigh on crude
Oil prices slipped Tuesday after nearing seven-month highs as progress in U.S./Iran nuclear talks reduced geopolitical risk concerns. Brent crude fell 1% to $70.77 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 1% to $65.63.
The move came ahead of new indirect talks in Geneva, with Iranian officials signaling openness to a deal, easing fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Traders remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route.
Broader market pressures also weighed on sentiment, including U.S. trade policy uncertainty, expectations for increased Venezuelan crude flows, and ongoing enforcement of energy sanctions. Analysts were also watching upcoming U.S. inventory data, with forecasts pointing to a modest crude stock build that could reinforce ample supply conditions.
| CHINA |
— China warns U.S. against new Section 301 tariff actions
Beijing signals possible retaliation as trade frictions resume after court-driven U.S. tariff reset
China’s Commerce Ministry issued a pointed warning to the United States this week, criticizing Washington’s renewed use of Section 301 trade investigations and reiterating Beijing’s opposition to unilateral tariff measures. The comments come at a sensitive moment for global trade, as the Trump administration retools its tariff strategy following the Supreme Court’s ruling that limited emergency-power tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
According to statements carried by Xinhua News Agency, a ministry spokesperson said China opposes “all forms of unilateral tariffs” and urged the U.S. to end existing measures and refrain from adding new ones. Beijing said it is closely monitoring developments and conducting a “comprehensive assessment” of any U.S. trade actions, while warning that China “reserves the right to take all necessary steps” to defend its economic interests.
Focus turns to Section 301 and Phase One agreement. The ministry’s remarks specifically referenced the U.S. review under Section 301 of the Trade Act, which allows Washington to investigate and impose tariffs over perceived unfair trade practices. Chinese officials argued that the U.S. should take an “objective, rational view” of the bilateral Phase One trade agreement, signaling concern that the ongoing review could be used as a foundation for new or expanded tariff measures.
Beijing’s language suggests growing sensitivity around the possibility that Section 301 could replace the broader emergency-based tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. Chinese officials warned the U.S. to avoid “stirring up trouble or provoking disputes,” signaling that any escalation could trigger retaliatory moves — a dynamic that markets, including agricultural commodities, are watching closely.
Trade policy reset after the Supreme Court ruling. The statement comes just days after the Trump administration shifted its approach to tariffs following the high court decision that invalidated broad IEEPA-based duties. In response, the White House moved to implement temporary tariffs under Section 122, imposing a 10% levy on imports effective February 24 while launching new investigations under Section 301 and other trade statutes.
Notably, the Chinese statement did not directly mention the new Section 122 tariffs, instead focusing on the broader principle of unilateral trade action and the prospect of Section 301 becoming the main vehicle for future U.S. tariff policy.
Market and policy implications. For global markets, the exchange underscores that U.S./China trade tensions remain unresolved even as the legal framework changes. Key implications include:
•Potential tariff volatility: Section 301 investigations could lead to targeted sectoral tariffs rather than broad global levies.
•Agricultural sensitivity: Any deterioration in relations could affect purchases of U.S. commodities — especially soybeans — which have historically been used as negotiation leverage.
•Policy uncertainty: With Section 122 tariffs limited in duration, traders and supply chains are watching whether longer-term measures emerge through Section 301 probes.
Overall, China’s warning signals that Beijing is preparing for another phase of trade negotiations — and possibly retaliation — as Washington rebuilds its tariff strategy within the boundaries set by the courts.
| FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—GLP-1s reshape food, wellness, and consumer behavior
Hartman Group white paper outlines how a pharmaceutical trend is becoming a cultural and economic disruptor
A new white paper from Hartman Group argues that GLP-1 medications — originally developed as diabetes and weight-management drugs — are rapidly evolving into a disruptive force that extends well beyond healthcare, fundamentally altering how consumers think about food, health, and wellness. The report frames GLP-1s as a cultural shift rather than simply a pharmaceutical trend, with meaningful implications for food, beverage, and consumer packaged goods companies.
According to the report, adoption has accelerated sharply, with 12.4% of U.S. consumers currently using GLP-1 drugs, compared with 5.8% in 2024 — signaling a fast-moving shift that industries must prepare for rather than ignore.
From pharmaceutical breakthrough to industry disruptor. Hartman Group describes GLP-1s as rewriting the rules of appetite and consumption. Their impact is felt most strongly in food and beverage markets, where changing eating behaviors are beginning to reshape demand patterns.
The authors emphasize that the main challenge for industry leaders is no longer if GLP-1s will influence categories and brands — but how. The report argues many current discussions focus too narrowly on operational responses and overlook the deeper cultural and behavioral changes underway among consumers.
Uncertain adoption — but large potential scale. While momentum is strong, the paper notes that future adoption remains uncertain and dependent on several macro factors:
• Insurance coverage and affordability
• Long-term adherence and treatment patterns
• Evolving medical evidence and safety data
• Consumer sentiment and philosophical pushback
• Expansion into new use cases beyond obesity
These variables will determine whether GLP-1s remain a niche solution or evolve into a mainstream, widely adopted health tool.
The report highlights that the potential market is enormous: roughly 31 million U.S. adults are currently using GLP-1s, while as many as 137 million may be eligible, suggesting substantial runway for future growth if access expands.
A new cultural understanding of obesity and wellness. One of the paper’s central themes is a paradigm shift in how obesity and weight management are perceived. GLP-1s are helping recast obesity as a medical and biological condition rather than a personal failure, reshaping consumer attitudes around food, identity, and self-control.
The white paper notes that the science behind appetite regulation — particularly the gut-brain connection — is becoming more mainstream. This has prompted broader consumer interest in wellness concepts like gut health, inflammation, and functional nutrition.
Changing food demand and revenue risks. Hartman Group argues that the most immediate commercial effects are already visible:
• Users report eating less overall
• Reduced demand for processed and snack foods
• Increased consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables
• Lower household spending in several food categories
The report cites data showing declines in grocery and snack spending among GLP-1 households, signaling potential revenue pressure for traditional food manufacturers.
However, the authors caution against focusing exclusively on volume loss. Instead, they suggest the bigger opportunity lies in understanding how expectations around food quality, nutrition, and experience are evolving.
Processed foods under new scrutiny. Beyond smaller appetites, Hartman Group warns that GLP-1 adoption may accelerate a broader cultural critique of processed food. Concepts like “food noise” — describing persistent cravings — are becoming more mainstream, influencing even non-users.
The paper suggests consumers will increasingly expect:
• Recognizable, nutrient-dense ingredients
• Less processed formulations
• Foods designed to support health rather than stimulate cravings
This dynamic may reshape product development and brand positioning across the industry.
Marketing and product innovation: opportunities and risks. While some brands may lean toward “GLP-1 friendly” labeling, Hartman Group warns this could be a superficial short-term tactic unless backed by genuine reformulation. Poor execution risks consumer backlash or accusations of “health-washing.”
The report points to stronger long-term opportunities in:
• High-protein and high-fiber foods
• Ingredients supporting satiety and gut health
• Functional foods that align with metabolic health goals
• Products balancing nutrition and taste
A shift toward quality and intentional eating. The white paper concludes that GLP-1s may lead to a redefinition of premium food experiences. As consumers eat less, each eating occasion carries more value, potentially encouraging demand for:
• Better tasting and visually appealing meals
• Nutritionally dense snacks
• Meal solutions that support cooking at home
• Products offering functionality without sacrificing enjoyment
In short, the industry opportunity lies less in smaller portions and more in designing food that feels purposeful and rewarding.
Bottom Line: Hartman Group’s analysis positions GLP-1s as a structural change in consumer culture — one that connects medicine, nutrition, and identity in new ways. The paper argues that companies that succeed will be those that move beyond short-term labeling strategies and instead rethink product development around realness, functionality, and consumer trust.
| LABOR & IMMIGRATION POLICY |
— Overwhelming turnout at ag wage reform press conference
Broad multi-state coalition urges permanent AEWR reform to protect farm stability and U.S. food security
An overflowing room of agricultural producers, association leaders, and policymakers gathered for the Ag Wage Reform press conference and roundtable, signaling growing national momentum behind calls for permanent reform of the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR). The strong turnout underscored the urgency expressed by growers who say current wage volatility is making it increasingly difficult to sustain domestic production and long-term planning across the specialty crop industry.
Speakers representing dozens of commodities across six states addressed attendees, collectively urging Congress and federal policymakers to codify the interim final rule tied to the AEWR and enact durable reforms that provide predictability for farms reliant on seasonal labor. Participants argued that stable wage policy is essential not only for managing labor costs but for maintaining a competitive and secure domestic food supply.
The coalition now includes 36 agricultural organizations across nine states, representing more than 20,000 farmers who depend on over 380,000 temporary H-2A workers nationwide. According to speakers, those growers currently spend more than $5 billion annually on wages, making wage policy a central factor in farm viability and rural economic health.
Key concerns raised by growers. During the roundtable discussion, producers outlined several challenges shaping their push for reform:
• Rapidly escalating wage mandates that growers say outpace market conditions
• Difficulty planning multi-year crop cycles under fluctuating wage formulas
• Rising financial risks for family farms and rural communities
• Increasing dependence on imported food when domestic production becomes economically unsustainable
Participants emphasized that their objective is not wage reduction, but the establishment of fair, predictable, and stable wage structures that support:
• Farms
• Farmworkers
• Main Street rural economies
• The integrity of the U.S. food system
Direct engagement with policymakers. Beyond the press event itself, coalition members spent the day meeting directly with federal policymakers to press for legislative action. Organizers reported meetings with more than 30 Senate and House offices, as well as discussions with officials at the U.S. Department of Labor and members of the Senate Agriculture Committee. These conversations, participants said, highlighted the growing pressure for clarity and permanence in federal wage policy for agriculture.
Food security and economic stakes. Speakers warned that without long-term reform, domestic fruit and vegetable production — along with specialty crop sectors such as horticulture and tobacco — could continue to decline. Growers argued that further erosion of domestic production would lead to greater reliance on imports, farm closures, and upward pressure on consumer food prices.
Quote of note: “This is not a partisan issue, it is a food security issue,” said Sam Watson, a farmer from Georgia. Jason Rodgers of Titan Farms in South Carolina echoed that message, stating, “We are asking for stability. We are asking for certainty. And we are asking for policies that allow American farms to remain viable while continuing to provide lawful employment for hundreds of thousands of workers.”
Looking Ahead: Ag Wage Reform leaders said the coalition will continue meeting with lawmakers from both parties as they push for permanent legislative solutions that codify the interim rule and restore long-term planning certainty to the specialty crop industry. Organizers framed the effort as both an economic and food-security priority, stressing that predictable labor policy is essential to sustaining domestic agriculture in the years ahead.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Series of clipper systems to yield additional snowfall across the Central and Eastern U.S.; showers and thunderstorms in the Southeast… …Critical fire weather conditions over the Southern High Plains today.
