Two-Week Ceasefire = Market Relief Valve

Equities, gold and silver surge in relief rally while oil plummets | U.S./Iran talks on Friday

LINKS

Link: U.S. Trade Strategy Enters a New Phase — Greer Outlines
          ‘Economic Security’ Doctrine at Hudson Institute
Link: STOMP Initiative Elevates Microplastics —
         Opening Policy Tailwinds for U.S. Cotton

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 4
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 4

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 8, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— Pakistan-Brokered Ceasefire Accepted: Markets surged and oil plunged as a two-week U.S.–Iran–Israel ceasefire eased immediate Hormuz risks, though both sides claim victory and structural tensions remain unresolved

— Dairy Emerges as Key Flashpoint in USMCA Review: USTR Jamieson Greer signals Canada’s protected dairy sector will face renewed U.S. pressure as a central friction point in upcoming negotiations

— USMCA Decision Timeline Comes into Focus: June 1 (Congress notification) and July 1 (Canada/Mexico notice) set the stage for potential renegotiation and heightened leverage in trade talks

— Corn Growers Warn of Fertilizer Crisis Extending Into 2027: NCGA survey shows rising concern over affordability and supply, with forward-looking risks intensifying due to geopolitical disruptions

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Ceasefire Markets Today: Global equities surged and oil dropped sharply as investors priced in reopening energy flows and reduced geopolitical tail risks

— Equities Yesterday: U.S. indices ended modestly lower, reflecting pre-ceasefire caution and geopolitical uncertainty

— Ceasefire Eases Tail Risks, But Structural Uncertainty Remains: Sevens Report notes relief rally underway, but inflation, energy risk premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty persist

— Fed Minutes Land as Oil Surge Complicates Rate Outlook: Rising energy prices and tighter conditions cloud expectations for 2026 rate cuts and raise inflation concerns

— Consumer Credit Growth Moderates as Card Spending Slows: Households continue borrowing but shift toward nonrevolving credit signals more cautious behavior

— Delta Pulls Back Growth as Fuel Surge Reshapes Airline Outlook: Strong demand persists, but soaring jet fuel costs force capacity cuts and margin pressure
 

AG MARKETS
 

— Brazil Expands Feed Trade with China: First DDGS and poultry meal shipments highlight diversification into higher-value agricultural exports

— Beef Demand Hits 40-Year High:  Strong consumer preference continues to drive cattle markets despite elevated prices
— Indonesia accelerates biofuel push with B50 mandate timeline: Government sets phased targets for biodiesel, ethanol, and SAF to reduce energy risk exposure and boost domestic demand

— Agriculture Markets Yesterday: Broad declines across grains and livestock reflect risk-off sentiment and technical selling

USDA INFO & FARM POLICY

— USDA Launches Centralized Guidance Portal: New database consolidates agency guidance, emphasizing transparency and accessibility under the Trump administration

— USDA Launches National Proving Grounds Network: Nationwide initiative aims to validate agtech under real-world conditions and accelerate adoption

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil Markets Whipsaw Lower on Ceasefire and Hormuz Reopening: Crude plunges as Trump delays strikes and Iran signals conditional reopening of key shipping lane

— Oil Volatility Persists Amid Hormuz Disruptions: Elevated geopolitical risks continue driving inflation concerns and shifting Fed expectations

— Global Leaders Convene on Energy Crisis: IEA, IMF, and World Bank coordinate response to Iran-driven supply shock and global economic risks

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Republicans Hold Georgia Seat in Runoff: Trump-backed candidate wins, reinforcing GOP majority while Democrats narrow margins

WEATHER

— Spring Weather Pattern Boosts Plains, Dryness Persists in Southeast: Rain and warmth support planting in key regions while Southern dryness raises early-season concerns

— NWS Outlook Signals Severe Weather Risks: Heavy rain, thunderstorms, and fire weather concerns expected across multiple regions
 

TOP STORIES—Pakistan-brokered 2-week ceasefire acceptedSome markets surge, oil plummets as ceasefire gains rapid multilateral backing, easing immediate Hormuz disruption risks while leaving key regional conflicts unresolved; Both U.S. and Iran claim victory Weeks of pent-up tension surrounding the Middle East crisis broke sharply as news emerged that President Trump agreed to a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire. Momentum accelerated within minutes as reports confirmed Israel’s participation, followed by Iran’s Supreme Leader also accepting the deal. Markets had already begun positioning for a potential breakthrough and surged higher once confirmation hit. In its official statement, Iran referenced both the U.S. 15-point framework and its own 10-point proposal, ultimately declaring: “If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease defensive operations. For a period of two weeks, safe passage will be possible through the Strait of Hormuz.” Israel later clarified that the ceasefire does not extend to its ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. In an interview with Agence France-Presse after the announcement, Trump said he believed China had helped get Iran to the negotiating table. “I hear yes,” Trump said in a telephone call with AFP when asked whether Beijing was involved in getting key ally Tehran to negotiate on a truce. China has held calls with Iran and Pakistan as well as other countries since the war started in attempts to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East. It issued a five-point statement with Pakistan last week calling on the warring sides for an immediate halt to military attacks and for talks on a peace deal.Conflicting news. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will lead Iran’s negotiating teamin talks with the U.S. in Islamabad on Friday, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reports, citing one of its reporters. But the head of Iran’s negotiating team in upcoming talks with the U.S. hasn’t yet been finalized, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, meanwhile, urged caution over reports of in-person talks with Iran, saying that discussions wouldn’t be finalized until announced by Trump. Reports note that Vice President JD Vance is likely to head the U.S. team. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine will hold a news conference today. There will also be a White House press briefing. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is scheduled to meet with Trump today. President Trump said on social media that the United States would be “helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz,” the strategic waterway that Iran has agreed to reopen under threat of devastating U.S. attacks. “We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ around” to make sure that everything goes well,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He also said Iran could “start the reconstruction process” — a sharp contrast to his earlier threats to wipe out Iranian civilization. Iran’s willingness to reopen shipping only under coordination with its military suggests a shift toward de facto control, not free navigation. If so, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began. Both sides can claim victory — tactically. President Trump can argue deterrence worked: (1) Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (even if conditionally). (2) Tehran entered negotiations under pressure of escalation.Iran, meanwhile, preserves key strategic wins: (1) Maintains leverage over Hormuz — still effectively controlling transit conditions. (2) Avoids direct regime-threatening strikes. (3) Forces the U.S. into a negotiated pause rather than decisive military victory. It was unclear whether word of the deal had reached Iranian local commanders, as fresh missile and drone attacks were reported across the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, there are still major gaps between the U.S. and Iranian visions for a deal.— Energy markets reacted sharply, with WTI crude losing its recently established premium to Brent and falling roughly 19% at one point, while Brent declined about 16%. Both markets pared initial losses, leaving both benchmarks currently near $94 per barrel. Risk assets rallied broadly: U.S. equity futures jumped 2%–3%, gold rose 2.3%, silver surged 5.0%, and currencies strengthened against the dollar — the dollar fell against all its major peers, giving back more than half of its gains since the war started, as investors pulled money from the safe haven and moved into riskier assets. Meanwhile, global bond yields moved lower, with the Japanese yield curve flattening at the long end as 30- and 40-year yields declined by 9–10 basis points. Of note: Fertilizer stocks, which had risen on fears of supply disruptions from the war, gave back some of those gains. CF Industries dropped 8.2%, Nutrien -3.8%, Mosaic -2.6%. Gas prices could start dropping in the next two days, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said last night. Average U.S. gas prices have climbed more than 70 cents over the past month due to the Iran conflict but are set to reverse course following the ceasefire. AAA’s national average for gas today is $4.16 a gallon.  —Dairy emerges as key flashpoint in USMCA reviewGreer signals Canada’s protected dairy sector will face renewed U.S. pressure as trade talks advance Jamieson Greer addressed dairy only briefly in his remarks Tuesday at the Hudson Institute (link to special report), but the context is important — it came during a discussion of the upcoming USMCA review and how trade tensions differ between Canada and Mexico. Dairy framed as a Canada-specific trade friction. Greer acknowledged that dairy is a disproportionately important issue in U.S.–Canada trade, far more than in U.S./Mexico relations. When prompted, he agreed directly: Dairy is “a much bigger issue” with Canada than Mexico. Why dairy matters in the USMCA review. His broader point was that each North American partner presents distinct trade challenges, which is why the administration is considering separate bilateral protocols layered onto USMCA rather than a one-size-fits-all renegotiation. Canada: Dairy access and supply management remain core disputesMexico: Issues center more on autos, labor, and broader trade flows Greer tied this into President Donald Trump’s dissatisfaction with USMCA outcomes, noting that sector-specific imbalances — like Canada’s protected dairy market — complicate claims that the agreement is functioning as intended. Bottom Line: Greer did not announce new dairy policy, but his comments signal:• Dairy will be a central pressure point in U.S./Canada negotiations• The administration is likely to pursue targeted fixes, not broad renewal• Expect continued U.S. pressure on Canada’s supply management system during the USMCA review process —USMCA decision timeline comes into focusGreer outlines June 1 notice to Congress and July 1 notification to Canada and Mexico as pivotal trigger points Jamieson Greer provided important clarity on the sequencing and legal mechanics of the upcoming USMCA review — highlighting two critical dates that will determine whether the agreement is maintained or renegotiated. June 1: Notification to Congress. Greer explained that the administration must first inform Congress by June 1 of its intended course of action regarding USMCA: Whether the U.S. will effectively renew (“rubber stamp”) the agreement; or declare that modifications are necessary, triggering renegotiation. This step is a domestic legal requirement and sets the policy direction before engaging formally with trading partners. “I have to tell Congress June 1 what we’re going to do.” July 1: Formal notice to Canada and Mexico. Roughly one month later, the U.S. must formally notify Canada and Mexico on July 1 of that decision. This notification mirrors what was communicated to Congress. It officially initiates the next phase of the USMCA review process: “A month later I tell the Canadians and Mexicans what I told Congress a month before.” What happens if changes are required. Greer made clear that if the administration opts not to renew as-is, the process shifts into a negotiation phase:•The U.S. enters a review/renegotiation period (technically up to 10 years under USMCA rules)•Active negotiations would aim to resolve issues well before that outer limit•The administration is already working to resolve as many issues as possible ahead of July 1 Greer acknowledged that a full resolution by the deadline is unlikely: “We aren’t probably going to be able to resolve all issues by July 1,” but he said progress with Mexico has been stronger than with Canada. Strategic implication. The June 1 / July 1 sequence is more than procedural — it is the trigger point for leverage: A decision to seek changes effectively puts USMCA on a renegotiation path. And it signals to Canada and Mexico that status quo is insufficient. It thus creates pressure for sector-specific concessions (e.g., dairy, autos, metals). Bottom Line: Greer’s timeline confirms that early summer will mark a defining moment for North American trade policy:June 1: U.S. sets its position internallyJuly 1: That position is formally delivered to Canada and MexicoAfter July 1: Negotiations intensify, with potential restructuring of USMCA —Corn growers warn of mounting fertilizer crisis extending into 2027NCGA survey highlights worsening affordability, supply risks, and long-term market disruptions tied to global conflict U.S. corn farmers are growing increasingly alarmed about fertilizer costs and availability — concerns that are now extending well beyond the current crop year — according to new survey data (link) from the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA). Two nationwide surveys conducted in late March show that while many producers secured inputs for the 2026 season ahead of recent geopolitical disruptions, anxiety is accelerating sharply for 2027, signaling that current market volatility is already reshaping forward planning across the farm economy. The surveys reveal a stark divergence in sentiment: for every farmer concerned about fertilizer access and pricing in 2026, nearly two express heightened concern for 2027. NCGA President Jed Bower (Ohio) emphasized that fertilizer markets were already under strain before the Iran conflict, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz compounding supply risks and intensifying price pressure. A survey of nearly 1,000 corn farmers conducted by Farm Journal and another survey of more than 600 NCGA members showed farmers’ early worries about how the Iran conflict might impact this year’s — and next year’s — corn crop. Nearly two-thirds of NCGA members have purchased at least 80% of their nitrogen needs for 2026, and more than 70% have purchased at least 80% of their phosphate needs, according to the analysis. But around 9% haven’t purchased any nitrogen, and 12% haven’t purchased any phosphate, according to the NCGA survey, which was conducted in late March and early April. Growers under 40 were more likely than other age groups to report having no nitrogen purchased, confirming reports that younger farmers could be the hardest hit by the increase in fertilizer input costs. Affordability has deteriorated significantly despite fertilizer prices remaining below their 2022 peaks. On a “currency of corn” basis, farmers now require roughly 185 bushels of corn to purchase one ton of urea — the highest level on record — reflecting the dual squeeze of elevated input costs and weaker corn prices. Meanwhile, supply-side concerns are mounting. Global shipping disruptions and reduced fertilizer production in key regions are tightening availability, raising fears that inputs may not be accessible when needed. Trade policy is also adding pressure: U.S.-based companies including Mosaic Corporation and J.R. Simplot are advocating for continued countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports, a move that has contributed to higher prices and halted shipments from a key supplier. While near-term fertilizer availability for spring planting appears relatively stable, the longer production cycle for fertilizer means today’s disruptions could translate into more severe shortages later in 2026 — precisely when farmers begin locking in inputs for the 2027 crop. The report underscores that fertilizer purchasing decisions are inherently forward-looking, and current uncertainty is already influencing how growers assess risk for the next planting cycle.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Ceasefire markets today: Investors are so far betting the ceasefire deal will lead to a reopening of critical energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. Stock markets across Asia soared: The Nikkei 225 in Japan jumped 5.4% and stocks in South Korea surged nearly 7%, the most in the region. S&P 500 stock futures pointed to a nearly 3%  jump when trading resumes in the U.S. And Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, plunged initially by 16% to $91.70 a barrel before paring some of the losses.

—Equities yesterday: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  April 7	Point Difference  from April 6	% Difference  from April 6
Dow	46,584.46	-85.42	-0.18%
Nasdaq	22,017.85	-21.51	-0.10%
S&P 500	6,616.85	-5.02	-0.08%

—Ceasefire eases tail risks, but structural uncertainty remains

Sevens Report: Markets rally on de-escalation, but inflation, energy, and geopolitical risk premiums are not fully unwound

According to the Sevens Report, the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Iran, and Israel triggered a sharp relief rally across global markets, as investors rapidly priced out worst-case geopolitical scenarios — including a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sustained energy supply disruptions. Equities moved higher, oil prices pulled back, and volatility declined as immediate tail risks were reduced. However, the report emphasizes that this is not a full resolution, but rather a temporary de-escalation that leaves several structural risks intact.

The Sevens Report notes that energy markets remain the key transmission channel for macro impacts. While crude prices dropped on the ceasefire headline, they remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels, reflecting a lingering geopolitical risk premium. Any breakdown in negotiations or failure to extend the ceasefire could quickly reverse recent declines and reintroduce inflationary pressure.

Meanwhile, the report highlights that central banks — particularly the Federal Reserve — are unlikely to materially shift policy based on a short-term ceasefire. Elevated oil prices and still-tight financial conditions mean inflation risks remain skewed to the upside, limiting the scope for near-term rate cuts despite easing headline geopolitical tensions.

From a market structure standpoint, the Sevens Report underscores that positioning had already begun to anticipate a de-escalation, which amplified the upside reaction once confirmation hit. However, it cautions that the sustainability of the rally depends on follow-through — specifically, whether the ceasefire evolves into a broader diplomatic framework or collapses back into conflict.

Ultimately, the report frames the ceasefire as a “pressure release valve” rather than a definitive turning point — reducing immediate downside risks for equities and global growth, but leaving markets highly sensitive to headlines, energy flows, and the next phase of geopolitical negotiations.

—Fed Minutes land as oil surge complicates rate outlook

Rising geopolitical risks and tighter financial conditions cloud expectations for 2026 rate cuts

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes — from the March 17–18 policy gathering — arrive at a moment when surging oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions are reshaping the inflation outlook and casting doubt on the expected path for interest rates.

The minutes are expected to provide insight into how Fed officials assessed geopolitical risks at the time, just as tensions tied to the Iran war were intensifying. Since then, energy prices have climbed sharply, contributing to tighter financial conditions — effectively doing some of the Fed’s work without a formal policy move.

A central focus for investors will be how policymakers evaluated inflation expectations. Recent public remarks from Jerome Powell, Jeffrey Schmid, and Alberto Musalem suggest growing concern that longer-term expectations could become unanchored if inflation remains elevated. While long-run measures have held steady so far, the minutes may reveal how confident officials were in that stability — and how seriously they view the risk of drift.

Meanwhile, the expected interest rate trajectory has become less clear. At the time of the March meeting, the Fed’s baseline outlook pointed to one rate cut later in 2026. That expectation has since weakened as higher oil prices and tightening financial conditions complicate the case for easing. The minutes could also shed light on whether any officials discussed scenarios that might warrant renewed rate hikes — a key risk for markets.

Investors will also be parsing the tone of the discussion around risks. Evidence of division among policymakers would reinforce a “hold” stance, while broader consensus could signal a shift in policy expectations.

The release, scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern, is likely to serve as a critical checkpoint for markets recalibrating expectations amid a rapidly evolving macro and geopolitical backdrop.

—Consumer credit growth moderates as card spending slows

Households continue borrowing, but shift toward nonrevolving credit signals more cautious consumer behavior

Consumer credit expanded modestly in February, rising by $9.5 billion to a total of $5.12 trillion, according to Federal Reserve data. While overall borrowing increased from January’s $7.7 billion gain, the composition of that growth points to a more restrained consumer.

The key shift came in revolving credit — primarily credit cards — which rose just $700 million, or 0.6%, a sharp slowdown from January’s $2.6 billion increase. Meanwhile, nonrevolving credit, including auto and student loans, drove the bulk of the expansion, climbing $8.8 billion compared to $5.1 billion the prior month.

The data suggests consumers are still relying on credit but are pulling back on discretionary, short-term borrowing. Instead, the tilt toward installment-based lending indicates a more cautious financial posture, potentially reflecting higher interest rates, tighter financial conditions, or growing economic uncertainty.

—Delta pulls back growth as fuel surge reshapes airline outlook

Strong demand persists, but soaring jet fuel costs drive capacity cuts and higher fares

Delta Air Lines is scaling back its near-term growth plans as a sharp surge in jet fuel prices — driven by the Middle East conflict — forces a broader industry reset, even as travel demand remains resilient.

The airline reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings, with adjusted EPS of 64 cents and revenue of $14.2 billion, but warned that rising fuel costs are pressuring margins and clouding the outlook. Delta now expects second-quarter earnings of $1 to $1.50 per share, below analyst expectations, and anticipates flat capacity growth for the year.

Fuel has emerged as the dominant challenge. Jet fuel prices have surged nearly 88% since late February, outpacing crude oil gains and pushing Delta’s expected fuel costs to $4.30 per gallon in the second quarter. In response, airlines—including Delta, United, and JetBlue—are raising fees and trimming capacity, a shift that could continue to push airfares higher.

Despite these pressures, demand — especially for premium travel — remains strong. Delta reported a 14% increase in premium-ticket revenue, highlighting continued consumer willingness to spend on higher-end travel experiences. Meanwhile, the airline’s refinery operations are providing a strategic advantage, with an expected $300 million benefit in the second quarter helping offset elevated fuel costs.

Looking ahead, Delta is maintaining its full-year outlook but acknowledged significant uncertainty tied to fuel price volatility and geopolitical developments. The recent easing in oil prices following a temporary ceasefire agreement offers some relief, but executives emphasized that visibility remains limited as markets continue to react to ongoing tensions.

AG MARKETS

—Brazil deepens feed trade with China via first DDGS and poultry meal shipments

New product flows signal diversification beyond core commodities as China strengthens role as Brazil’s top agribusiness market

Brazil is expanding its agricultural export footprint in China with the first-ever shipments of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) and poultry by-product meal — marking a significant step in diversifying trade beyond traditional commodities.

The initial DDGS cargo — roughly 62,000 tonnes — arrived at the Port of Nansha in Guangzhou following market access approval finalized in 2025 after sanitary negotiations between Brazil and China. Since then, export volumes have surged, with shipments in early 2026 up more than 500% year-over-year, reflecting rapidly expanding demand for feed inputs tied to China’s livestock sector.

Meanwhile, poultry by-product meal exports build on an earlier market opening in 2023, further broadening Brazil’s participation in China’s animal nutrition supply chain. Together, these flows highlight growing integration across the agribusiness value chain — particularly in feed and by-products linked to ethanol and meat production.

The shift underscores a strategic evolution in Brazil’s export mix. While soybeans, corn, and meat remain dominant, the addition of DDGS and animal-origin feed ingredients signals a move toward higher-value, processed agricultural products.

China continues to anchor this expansion. In 2025 alone, it accounted for over $55 billion in Brazilian agricultural imports — roughly one-third of Brazil’s total agribusiness exports — reinforcing its position as the country’s most critical external market.

Meanwhile, the rapid growth in DDGS trade also reflects broader structural dynamics: rising feed demand in China, tighter global grain flows, and increasing alignment between biofuel co-products and livestock nutrition markets.

—Beef demand surges to 40-year high as consumer preference drives market strength

NCBA’s Colin Woodall highlights resilient beef demand, screwworm preparedness, and policy priorities ahead of midterm engagement

Consumer demand for beef has reached its strongest level in four decades, according to comments from Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, in an interview with farm broadcaster Ron Hays on Beef Buzz. Woodall emphasized that sustained, long-term investment in beef quality and marketing has resulted in consumers consistently choosing beef over competing proteins — even at elevated prices — underpinning the current strength in cattle markets.

Demand driving the market. Woodall attributed today’s strong cattle prices almost entirely to consumer preference, noting demand is now at a 40-year high. He stressed that unlike necessity-driven purchases, beef consumption is a deliberate choice by consumers despite higher retail costs. That distinction — “they don’t have to buy beef, they want to” — reflects both improved product quality and decades of industry investment. According to Woodall, the U.S. is producing the highest-quality beef in its history, reinforcing consumer loyalty and willingness to pay.

Staying ahead of New World screwworm. Meanwhile, the industry is closely monitoring the potential threat of New World screwworm, with preparedness efforts focused on early detection and education. Woodall emphasized that the pest’s rapid lifecycle makes vigilance critical, as infestations can develop quickly between routine herd checks. While treatment options exist, he underscored that timely identification of larvae and wounds is essential to limiting spread and minimizing impact.

Dietary guidelines and beef’s role. Woodall also pointed to recent federal dietary guidance as a positive development for the industry, noting that beef continues to be recognized as a valuable protein source.

He credited decades of scientific research — spanning roughly 40 years — for shaping that outcome, reinforcing beef’s role in a balanced diet and strengthening the industry’s position in ongoing nutrition debates.

Farm bill and producer engagement. On policy, Woodall identified passage of a new farm bill as a top priority, emphasizing the need for long-term certainty for producers. He also urged cattle producers to engage directly with lawmakers, particularly through town halls and local meetings, arguing that direct communication remains one of the most effective ways to influence agricultural policy ahead of key legislative decisions and the upcoming midterm election cycle.

—Indonesia accelerates biofuel push with B50 mandate timeline

Government sets phased targets for biodiesel, ethanol, and SAF to reduce energy risk exposure and boost domestic demand

Indonesia has formally outlined an aggressive transition toward higher biofuel usage, with a March 3 energy ministry decree setting a nationwide shift to B50 biodiesel by 2028. The policy establishes a phased approach — beginning with a 50% palm-based biodiesel blend mandate starting July 1 — while allowing some flexibility in the interim. Subsidized diesel will maintain a 50% blend in 2027, while non-subsidized diesel may remain at 40% depending on production capacity, before full B50 adoption across all users in 2028.

Meanwhile, the government is preparing additional policy support, with a new decree expected later this year to allocate the biodiesel volumes required to meet the B50 target. Beyond biodiesel, Indonesia is also expanding its broader biofuels strategy: ethanol blending in gasoline is set to reach at least 5% in Java by 2026–2027, rising to 10% by 2028, while a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate will begin in 2027, requiring a 1% blend for flights operating out of key hubs in Jakarta and Bali.

These coordinated measures reflect a strategic effort to insulate the country from global energy disruptions — particularly those tied to Middle East instability — while reinforcing domestic energy security. At the same time, the policy trajectory signals sustained growth in Indonesian biofuel demand, with significant implications for global vegetable oil markets, especially palm oil supply, pricing, and trade flows.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price  April 7	Change  April 6
Corn	May	$4.49	-5 cents
Soybeans	May	$11.58 1/4	-8 1/2 cents
Soybean Meal	May	$311.80	-$4.80
Soybean Oil	May	69.72 cents	-23 points
Wheat (SRW)	May	$5.98	+2 3/4 cents
Wheat (HRW)	May	$6.07 1/2	-3/4 cent
Spring Wheat	May	$6.41	-3 1/2 cents
Cotton	May	71.31 cents	-36 points
Live Cattle	June	$245.80	-$1.225
Feeder Cattle	May	$366.625	-$3.725
Lean Hogs	June	$107.05	-$0.65

USDA INFO & FARM POLICY

—USDA launches centralized guidance portal to boost transparency

New searchable database consolidates agency directives, replaces prior system removed under Biden administration

USDA announced Tuesday the launch of a new USDA Guidance Portal (link), an interactive, searchable database designed to centralize guidance documents issued across the department and its agencies.

According to USDA, the portal is the result of a multi-month effort to review and streamline agency materials. Officials said tens of thousands of pages of guidance were inventoried, with outdated documents removed and remaining content consolidated into a single indexed system.

Deputy Secretary Stephen Alexander Vaden said the portal restores and improves upon a previous version that had been eliminated under the prior administration, emphasizing the Trump administration’s focus on transparency and accessibility. He added that the initiative fulfills a commitment outlined in Secretary Brooke Rollins’ Farmer and Rancher Freedom Framework released earlier this year.

USDA indicated the portal will be continuously updated to reflect current policies and operations across its 29 agencies and staff offices, positioning it as a central reference point for stakeholders seeking regulatory and program guidance.

—USDA launches National Proving Grounds Network to accelerate agtech adoption

New initiative aims to validate emerging farm technologies under real-world conditions and boost producer confidence, profitability, and innovation

USDA announced the creation of the National Proving Grounds Network for AgTech (NPG-Ag), a nationwide initiative designed to rigorously test and validate agricultural technologies in real-world farming and ranching environments. Led by USDA’s Research, Education, and Economics mission area, the effort—outlined by Under Secretary Dr. Scott Hutchins—seeks to provide producers with reliable, data-driven insights to guide technology investments and accelerate adoption across the sector. Link

At its core, the network is intended to address a key challenge facing U.S. agriculture: uncertainty around whether new technologies will deliver measurable returns. By evaluating tools ranging from precision agriculture systems to AI-driven solutions under actual production conditions, USDA aims to give farmers and ranchers clearer visibility into performance, cost savings, labor efficiency, and overall economic value.

The initiative will be spearheaded by the Agricultural Research Service (ARS), which will coordinate with other USDA research agencies and a national network of land-grant universities serving as testing hubs. Grand Farm will act as the National Program Manager, helping oversee testing protocols and industry participation.

USDA officials emphasized that the program is not only about evaluation but also about accelerating innovation. By creating a standardized, science-based validation pipeline, NPG-Ag is expected to strengthen collaboration between public researchers and private-sector developers, helping bring new technologies to market faster while ensuring they deliver tangible on-farm benefits.

Meanwhile, ARS is reinforcing its role in digital agriculture through the establishment of a new Director of Digital Agriculture position, signaling a broader institutional push toward integrating AI and advanced technologies into U.S. agriculture. ARS Administrator Joon Park highlighted that this effort will support responsible deployment of emerging tools while maintaining transparency and scientific rigor in the validation process.

Ultimately, USDA views the National Proving Grounds Network as a strategic step toward improving farm profitability, reducing adoption risk, and enhancing the long-term competitiveness of U.S. agriculture — ensuring that producers are equipped with proven technologies as the sector navigates rising input costs, labor constraints, and global competition.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Wednesday: Oil markets whipsaw lower on ceasefire delay and Hormuz reopening

WTI plunges below $95 as Trump pauses strike threat, Iran signals conditional reopening of key shipping lane, easing immediate supply fears

WTI crude futures tumbled more than 15% on Wednesday, falling below $95 per barrel, after President Donald Trump postponed his threat to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure by two weeks as part of what he called a “double-sided ceasefire.” The arrangement is contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent also plunged to around $95, with WTI currently around $95.

Trump also indicated the U.S. had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that he described as a “workable basis for negotiations,” with the two-week window intended to allow time for a potential agreement to be finalized and implemented.

Iran, for its part, agreed to reopen the Strait for the same period on the condition that all attacks cease, noting that vessel transit would be coordinated with its Armed Forces.

Israel has also reportedly agreed to the temporary ceasefire, but not Israel’s fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

The near-closure of the critical waterway — which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows — had already injected significant volatility into energy markets, amplifying concerns about inflation and the risk of a broader global economic slowdown.

—Tuesday: Oil volatility persists as Hormuz disruptions drive inflation risks

Energy market swings intensify as geopolitical tensions reshape Fed rate expectations

U.S. crude markets remained highly volatile, with WTI futures settling 54 cents higher at $112.95 per barrel after briefly surpassing $117, while Brent crude slipped 50 cents to $109.27. The divergence reflects ongoing uncertainty tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains largely closed and continues to constrain global energy flows.

Geopolitical risks are elevated amid sustained infrastructure attacks across the region, reinforcing fears of prolonged supply disruptions. These dynamics have driven sharp intraday price swings and sustained upward pressure on global energy costs.

Meanwhile, the macroeconomic implications are becoming more pronounced. Elevated oil prices are feeding into broader inflation concerns, complicating the outlook for global growth and central bank policy. In the U.S., markets are increasingly reassessing the trajectory of the Federal Reserve, with expectations shifting toward fewer or delayed rate cuts as policymakers weigh persistent energy-driven inflation against slowing economic momentum.

—Global financial and energy leaders to convene Monday for emergency talks on Iran-driven crisis

IEA, IMF, and World Bank form coordination group as supply shock rivals historic energy disruptions

Leaders of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank will meet next Monday to coordinate a global response to the escalating energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict, according to Reuters reporting.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the situation requires “all hands on deck,” emphasizing urgent international cooperation as disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz create one of the largest supply shocks in modern energy market history.

Agenda. The three institutions — alongside IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank President Ajay Banga — have already agreed to establish a joint coordination group. The effort is expected to deliver targeted policy guidance, assess global financing needs, and deploy support tools, including concessional or near-zero interest financing and broader risk mitigation mechanisms for affected economies.

Birol warned that the current crisis — driven by Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows — may exceed the severity of past shocks, including the 1973 oil crisis and 1979 energy crisis.

The emergency coordination comes amid heightened geopolitical tension, as Donald Trump issued a stark ultimatum to Iran to reopen the waterway, underscoring the growing linkage between geopolitical escalation, energy supply disruptions, and mounting risks to global economic stability.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Republicans hold Georgia seat as Trump-backed candidate wins runoff

Clay Fuller’s victory expands GOP House majority while signaling narrowing margins for Democrats in deep-red districts

Republican district attorney Clay Fuller secured victory in a special election runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, reinforcing the GOP’s House majority and underscoring Donald Trump’s continued influence within the party.

Fuller defeated Democrat Shawn Harris, a retired Army general, in a race closely watched as a test of Trump’s political strength following his break with Greene. Backed heavily by Trump, Fuller aligned himself closely with the president’s agenda, pledging to support him “each and every day” in Congress.

The race emerged after Greene resigned amid a high-profile split with Trump, turning the contest into a referendum on party loyalty and leadership within the GOP. Trump’s endorsement proved decisive in consolidating Republican support in the runoff.

Despite the loss, Democrats pointed to improved performance. Harris significantly narrowed the margin compared to his 2024 defeat against Greene, highlighting a broader trend of Democratic overperformance in recent elections — even in reliably conservative districts.

The outcome maintains Republican control of the seat, but the tighter margins may serve as an early warning sign for GOP candidates heading into the broader midterm cycle, particularly as both parties prepare for a rematch in the upcoming primary and general elections for a full term.

WEATHER

— Spring weather shift brings moisture boost to Plains, dryness persists in Southeast

Rainfall and warmth support planting progress in key regions, while Southern areas face early-season stress

A highly active precipitation pattern is set to begin tonight across the western Corn Belt and Southern Plains, delivering widespread moisture through the next two weeks. According to current forecasts, this system will significantly improve soil moisture profiles—particularly along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor—benefiting winter wheat conditions and early-season field readiness. However, the same system introduces a risk of severe weather across the central Plains heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, an unusually warm temperature regime — peaking around April 12–13 at 10 to 20 degrees above normal — will accelerate soil warming and support early corn planting progress. This favorable window is expected to persist until a modest cooling trend arrives around April 15.

In contrast, the Southeast and Mid-South remain notably dry in the near term, with little to no precipitation expected over the next five days. While the Mid-South may see improved rainfall chances in the second week, the Southeast is likely to experience prolonged dryness—facilitating fieldwork but potentially hindering early crop establishment and development.

—NWS outlook: Chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms over parts of the Florida Peninsula over the next couple of days… …Elevated to critical fire weather concerns for the Southeast on Wednesday… …Chances for severe thunderstorms across Central Plains on Wednesday and Southern Rockies/Plains on Thursday.