U.S. Farmer Aid Package Announcement May Finally Come This Week
ObamaCare | FOMC | Issues with China soybean buys | Remaining FY 2025 spending bills | Problems with prevent-plant buy-up and SDRP Stage 2 payments
Link: Trump Launches Broad Crackdown on Possible Food-Sector Collusion
Link: Could Trump Unleash a Little-Discussed Tool to Lower Beef Prices?
Link: USDA Proposal to End Prevented-Planting Buy-Up Coverage Sparks Broad
Farmer Backlash
Link: What New Crop Insurance Rule Means for Farmers
Link: Updates, Dec. 5, 2025: China and U.S. Pledge to Advance More “Stable”
Trade Relationship
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 5
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 5
TOP STORIES
— Week ahead: Markets, central banks, and corporate crosswinds
— What Bessent said about China purchases of U.S. soybeans
— Confusion, misreporting cloud rumors over China’s U.S. soybean purchases
— Why China’s soybean storage ‘constraint’ matters — and why it’s not the whole story
— Bessent downplays power of Fed chair
— SDRP Stage 2 payments begin moving, but key concerns emerge over
timing and price methodology
— Sheinbaum highlights U.S./Mexico cooperation as Morena marks anniversary
WASHINGTON FOCUS
— Republicans push HSA-centered alternative as ACA subsidy deadline looms
— Trump budget chief sees path to avoiding shutdown
— Farmer aid details finally expected to be unveiled this week
— Senate prepares to advance nearly 100 nominees, including key USDA, trade picks
— Lawmakers, farm groups mobilize to oppose hidden cut to prevent-plant buy-up
— 2026 House midterm outlook: Dems gain early edge as cycle takes on
classic midterm shape
AG EVENTS
— National Grain & Feed Association Country Elevator Conf., Indianapolis (Dec. 8–9)
— USA Rice Outlook Conference, New Orleans (Dec. 8–9)
— California Farm Bureau Annual Meeting, Anaheim (Dec. 8–9)
— Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy webinar: “Shaping the Future of Food:
2025 in Review and Looking Ahead” (Dec. 9)
— Annual Almond Conference, Sacramento (Dec. 10–12)
— Atlantic Council event with USTR Jamieson Greer, Dec. 10
— House Ag Committee hearing on CFTC reauthorization (Dec. 11)
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS
— Wall Street expects a quarter-point rate cut at this week’s marquee FOMC meeting
KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS
— Ag focus: WASDE, China CASDE, and Malaysian palm oil data drive
global supply-and-demand expectations
KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS
— Energy focus: OPEC, EIA, and IEA monthly outlooks, plus petrochemical forums and
Exxon’s corporate plan update, shape oil and gas market direction
The Week Ahead: Dec. 7, 2025
UP FRONTTOP STORIES— Week ahead: Markets brace for Fed decision, China data, and major corporate earnings that could set the tone for year-end sentiment. — What Bessent said about China purchases: Treasury chief shifts goalposts on China’s soybean pledge, deepening confusion over timelines and what “the deal” actually requires. — Confusion over China soybean rumors: Unverified claims about USTR comments triggered market noise, highlighting persistent misinformation risks in ag reporting. — U.S./China trade thaw reaffirmed: Senior officials from both countries praised steady implementation of the Trump/Xi trade accord and pledged ongoing cooperation. — Why China’s soybean storage constraint matters: China’s challenge is timing and logistics, not literal storage shortages — and any washouts simply redirect Brazilian beans globally. — Bessent downplays Fed chair power: Treasury secretary says the Fed chair is just “one vote” and calls for residency requirements for regional Fed presidents. — SDRP Stage 2 concerns: Payments are starting, but growers fear weaker support due to delayed top-ups and the shift to spring price calculations. — Sheinbaum on U.S./Mexico ties: Mexico’s president touts strong Trump relationship and confidence in preserving USMCA heading into the 2026 review.WASHINGTON FOCUS / POLICY— Republicans push HSA-centered ACA alternative: GOP highlights HSA-driven reforms while Democrats insist ACA subsidies must be extended unchanged. — Trump budget chief sees path to avoiding shutdown: Vought expresses optimism for a spending deal despite disputes over earmarks and topline numbers. — Farmer aid details expected this week: Sources signal a $12–14B support package as farm finances deteriorate and lawmakers urge immediate relief. — Senate to advance nearly 100 nominees: Key USDA and trade posts — Callahan, Brashears, Herrell, Walk — head toward confirmation in a large en bloc vote. — Backlash over prevented-plant buy-up elimination: Farm groups and lawmakers mobilize to reverse a controversial rule ending the +5% buy-up option. — 2026 House midterm outlook: Early indicators point to a classic midterm environment favoring Democrats as Trump’s approval drags and GOP retirements mount.AG EVENTS— Ag events this week: Key conferences include NGFA’s Country Elevator meeting, USA Rice Outlook, California Farm Bureau, Almond Conference, and a Greer trade-policy forum.ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS— FOMC preview: Markets expect a 25-bp “hawkish cut” as Powell balances inflation progress with employment risks; new Fed forecasts and dissents are in focus. — Key U.S. data: NFIB, JOLTS, ECI, Treasury Budget, trade numbers, jobless claims, wholesale trade — plus government-release timing uncertainty from the shutdown.KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS— WASDE and global ag data week: Tuesday brings USDA’s major monthly reports plus China’s CASDE, EU grain data, and a heavy slate of production and trade updates through Friday.KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS— Oil market outlooks: OPEC, IEA, and EIA all issue monthly reports as energy agencies assess supply, demand, and geopolitical pressures; major regional forums also underway. Top Stories: — Week ahead: Markets, central banks, and corporate crosswindsFrom Fed rate-cut odds to China’s data pulse and a wave of high-stakes earnings Mon., Dec. 8China posts November export data after October’s surprise 1% y/y drop broke a seven-month growth streak. Unilever completes the long-planned spinoff of Magnum Ice Cream, which begins trading in Amsterdam with secondary listings in London and New York after delays caused by the U.S. government shutdown. Tue., Dec. 9ThyssenKrupp reports earnings after reaching a restructuring deal for its steel unit, potentially clearing the way for a sale to India’s Jindal Steel. Cracker Barrel also reports, following a political backlash that forced it to scrap a revised logo President Trump criticized. Wed., Dec. 10Markets watch whether the Federal Reserve delivers another rate cut (25 bp cut expected) amid reported divisions among policymakers. China releases November inflation after October’s slight 0.2% rise broke a year of deflationary patterns. Adobe posts earnings following its partnership with Saudi-backed AI firm Humain to build Arabic-language content tools. The EU unveils guidelines for achieving the 2035 combustion-engine ban as automakers lobby for relief, including potential exemptions for plug-in hybrids. Thurs., Dec. 11Broadcom reports earnings after capturing AI-driven momentum and securing an OpenAI chip-supply deal. Lululemon, pressured by tariffs and weaker leggings demand, issues results; shares are down 50% this year. Costco also reports while pursuing litigation seeking tariff reimbursement depending on an upcoming Supreme Court ruling. Fri., Dec. 12Rent the Runway releases earnings after agreeing to sell a controlling stake to private equity to cut debt. Subscriptions rose 13% y/y last quarter, but the stock is down nearly 40% this year. — What Bessent said about China purchases of U.S. soybeansTreasury secretary adds to the confusion surrounding U.S./China “agreement” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added to the confusion during the DealBook Summit (New York Times) on Wednesday. As part of a trade truce with China, the White House announced China would purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025. DealBook’s Andrew Ross Sorkin pointed out data from USDA showed China had so far bought just 332,000 metric tons of soybeans (that tally since has grown). Bessent said that the target was not the end of the year, but the end of the season in late February, and that China was “in a perfect cadence to complete that goal.” He added, “China is on track to keep every part of the deal. Every part of the deal.” From an agreement to a target. And from end of December to end of the season in February. What season is that? Confusing for sure. Some conjecture Bessent likely means the end of the marketing year — either China or the U.S., both of which go beyond the end of February. No wonder some grain industry analysts and “news” groups can report whatever they want with so much confusion about the agreement.” — Confusion, misreporting cloud rumors over China’s U.S. soybean purchasesDisputed comments attributed to USTR Jamieson Greer spark a wave of bad reporting and market chatter A swirl of confusion hit the grain markets Friday after at least one commodity analyst group claimed — without confirmation — that a Trump administration official, reportedly U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, said there was no U.S./China agreement for Beijing to purchase American soybeans. What followed was a familiar pattern in some agricultural news accounts: a single unverified remark ricocheted through certain market newsletters and social media “news” channels, quickly morphing into headlines implying an official policy reversal. No such confirmation ever came, and several analysts noted the reporting appeared to misinterpret or overstate the situation. What actually happened• An analyst group circulated a note suggesting Greer told someone there was no agreement in place for China to buy U.S. soybeans.• No transcript, audio, or on-record statement from Greer or USTR was published to substantiate the claim.• At least one “news” outlet repeated the rumor rather than seeking clarification from USDA, USTR, or the White House.• This created temporary confusion in the grain markets and among traders watching already-sensitive U.S./China trade flows. Why this keeps happening. Grain markets are uniquely vulnerable to rumor-driven reporting, for two reasons: 1. Political complexity: Many commodity analysts are highly skilled in supply-and-demand fundamentals but often misread political signals, especially in a White House that uses trade negotiations as both policy and leverage. Without a grounding in negotiation dynamics or tariff politics, comments get over-interpreted. 2. Market position bias: Some analyst shops “hear what they want to hear” based on their existing long or short positions. They pick out pieces of information that support their bias and frame them as emerging facts. 3. Click-driven “news”: A subset of ag-market news outlets now prioritize hype over verification, pushing out borderline gossip for attention and subscriptions. These groups often lack actual sourcing inside USDA, USTR, or the White House. U.S./China soybean diplomacy is not a simple yes/no. China’s soybean purchases are shaped by:• Tariff structures and retaliatory duty exemptions• Political leverage in broader negotiations• Domestic Chinese feed demand and crush margins• Seasonal competitiveness of U.S. vs. Brazil shipments A U.S./China “agreement” does not yet exist in the form markets imagine. China may pledge intent to buy (e.g., the 12 MMT through Feb. 2026 framework previously discussed), but actual purchases depend on weekly economics and Beijing’s willingness to use state buyers to meet political targets. Thus, when someone claims “there is no agreement,” it may refer to formal binding terms, not the ongoing political commitments or commercial flows. Bottom Line: The latest episode demonstrates how quickly rumor, poor sourcing, and political misunderstanding can distort market perceptions. Until an official statement emerges from USTR, USDA, or the White House, any claim that the U.S./China soybean framework has “collapsed” or that “there is no agreement” should be treated with caution. Washington and Beijing Reaffirm Trade ThawSenior officials hail smooth implementation of Trump–Xi accord, pledge steady engagement Senior U.S. and Chinese economic officials signaled a continued thaw in bilateral ties, using a Friday video call to underscore cooperation on the Trump/Xi trade agreement and a shared commitment to stable relations between the world’s two largest economies. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer held what China’s Xinhua News Agency described as an “in-depth and constructive” discussion with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The two sides offered upbeat assessments of the October trade deal struck by President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, with Xinhua reporting that both governments intend to keep expanding areas of cooperation while narrowing points of friction. Bessent, in a post on X, said the officials “discussed the ongoing implementation” of the agreement, “which is going well,” adding that he reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to continued, steady engagement with Beijing. — Why China’s soybean storage ‘constraint’ matters — and why it’s not the whole storyClaims that China “lacks storage capacity” to absorb promised U.S. soybean purchases oversimplify the issue. The real bottleneck is timing, logistics, and Brazil’s dominant export position — and even if China buys more U.S. beans, the global balance sheet barely moves China’s storage limits: real, but not literal. The argument circulating in commodity circles — that China “doesn’t have enough storage capacity” to take the pledged U.S. soybean volumes unless it washes out Brazilian cargoes — contains elements of truth, but is often delivered without the nuance needed to understand what traders actually mean. China does not lack physical storage in an absolute sense. Between crushers, commercial facilities, and state reserves, the country can handle more than 25–30 million tonnes of soybeans at any given moment — with continuous drawdown as crushers operate. The challenge is not a shortage of tanks or silos. The real constraints are seasonal logistics, port lineups, contract sequencing, and the Brazil-centric structure of China’s annual import program. Why the claim is partly true 1. Storage congestion is real during peak arrival periods• China typically imports 95–105 million tonnes of soybeans a year, with Brazilian shipments dominating from February through August. During that window, commercial and port storage routinely run near operational limits.• If China were to take its normal Brazilian program and simultaneously absorb an extra 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans by the end of February 2026, congestion at ports and crushers would become acute unless some other volumes were displaced. 2. Washing out Brazilian cargoes is the only workable solutionChinese buyers book large volumes of Brazilian soybeans months ahead. To make space for a sudden influx of U.S. cargoes, traders would need to:• cancel or resell Brazilian shipments (washouts),• shift delivery months, or• throttle crushing capacity — which is not feasible at scale. And if China washes out Brazilian cargoes?• Those Brazilian beans do not disappear — they simply flow to Europe, the Middle East, or Southeast Asia.• Meaning the U.S. does not gain a net-export advantage, even if the headline suggests a surge in Chinese demand. Where the claim Is Misleading. The statement becomes misleading when interpreted literally — as though China simply lacks storage bins. Physical capacity is not the core issue. China could easily accommodate 12 million tonnes over a full calendar year without strain. The problem is timing. The U.S. expects front-loaded purchases as part of the Oct. 30 trade “framework” agreement. That compressed window is precisely when Brazil is also shipping aggressively, causing the logistical squeeze that traders reference when they talk about “not enough storage.” Bottom Line: True in practice, misleading in theory. The statement is commercially accurate but technically imprecise. True: China cannot take its normal Brazilian program plus a major additional U.S. program in early 2025 without washing out Brazilian cargoes. Misleading: China does not literally lack storage; the issue is the sequencing of arrivals, port congestion, and pre-existing commitments. Market implication: Even if China buys the U.S. beans, Brazil’s displaced cargoes will find other buyers, leaving the global balance sheet unchanged and offering little net benefit to U.S. exports. This dynamic is exactly why traders remain skeptical that China will fully meet the near-term U.S. purchase commitments — and why even fulfillment might not deliver the bullish export impact some expect. — Bessent downplays power of Fed chairCalls for residency requirement for regional Fed presidents to fix “disconnect” in the system White House Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week at the DealBook Summit declined to confirm whether front-runner NEC Director Kevin Hassett will become the next Federal Reserve chair, instead emphasizing that the Fed’s leader is only “one vote” on a broader policymaking board. Bessent also criticized what he sees as a structural flaw in the Federal Reserve System: regional bank presidents who do not actually live in the districts they represent. He argued future presidents should be required to reside in their district for at least three years, and said Washington’s Board of Governors should veto any candidate who does not meet that threshold. Hassett echoed those views in an interview Friday on Fox’s Mornings with Maria. — SDRP Stage 2 payments begin moving, but key concerns emerge over timing and price methodologyMost county offices are issuing approvals, yet producers warn that delayed top-ups and the switch to spring prices could significantly limit support compared with SDRP Stage 1 SDRP Stage 2 sign-up is now underway across county FSA offices, with payments on completed and approved applications expected to begin processing. Once signed and certified, producers should see direct deposits starting this week. But two significant issues are already raising red flags among growers and crop-insurance professionals. First is the timing of top-up payments. While USDA has not provided a firm date, producers say these supplemental payments are most needed before April, when many face cash-flow stress from input purchases, operating-loan renewals, and early-season planting decisions. Any delay past that window could blunt the intended financial relief. (However, program signup ends April 30, so a top-up announcement would be unlikely during April.) Second is the program’s decision to use the spring projected price for both the guarantee and the loss calculations — rather than the harvest price, even for producers holding Revenue Protection (RP) policies. In effect, SDRP Stage 2 only recognizes yield losses, not revenue losses that stem from price declines. Many producers had expected USDA to follow the SDRP Stage 1 approach, which aligned payments with the underlying crop-insurance policy. The change is particularly consequential in a year when harvest prices fell sharply for several commodities. Growers say the deviation from policy-consistent calculations could substantially reduce assistance for those who purchased RP to manage both yield and price risk. With sign-up underway and payments beginning, producer groups are pushing USDA for clarity — and, if possible, adjustments — to ensure SDRP Stage 2 delivers the level of support that was widely anticipated when the program was announced. — Sheinbaum highlights U.S./Mexico cooperation as Morena marks anniversaryMexican president cites strong ties with Trump and confidence in USMCA ahead of 2026 review Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum used a rally celebrating the seventh anniversary of the Morena government to underscore what she described as a “good relationship” with the United States — remarks delivered just one day after her meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington. Sheinbaum told supporters in Mexico City’s Zócalo that she is “convinced” the USMCA trade agreement will remain intact as all three nations prepare for its 2026 review, stressing that “both economies need each other to be able to compete with other regions in the world.” The rally, which the government said drew 600,000 attendees, came after Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met privately with President Trump for 45 minutes following the World Cup draw. Trump earlier said discussions would focus on trade and immigration and later described all three leaders as having a “tremendous relationship.” Sheinbaum also highlighted her administration’s social achievements, saying its programs have reduced inequality, strengthened labor rights, and helped curb violent crime. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
— The House and Senate are both in session with the key issue a Senate vote on the fate of Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) premium subsidies. On the ag policy front, we finally should get details of a long-expected farmer aid package. Meanwhile, the FOMC on Dec. 10 is expected to announce a 25 basic point cut in interest rates, but it is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says about potential 2026 cut decisions that will be more important. USDA on Tuesday releases the WASDE report.
— Republicans push HSA-centered alternative as ACA subsidy deadline looms
GOP floats market-based reforms, but Democrats warn against replacing enhanced subsidies
A Senate Finance Committee hearing has exposed a widening policy divide over how to restrain rising health-care costs, with Republicans pitching health savings account (HSA)–centered reforms and Democrats insisting that only broader coverage and stronger federal oversight can protect consumers. The debate is unfolding just weeks before the Jan. 1 enrollment deadline — leaving Congress with almost no time to enact anything beyond a straightforward extension of current Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced subsidies.
A compressed timeline cuts against GOP policy ambitions. Experts warned lawmakers that due to congressional gridlock and the fast-approaching enrollment cutoff, there is no realistic window for adopting new Republican alternatives. At most, Congress could pass a “clean extension” of existing ACA enhanced premium subsidies. Anything more ambitious — such as overhauling subsidies to favor HSAs — would require negotiations that cannot be completed before coverage deadlines.
Democrats signal openness to HSAs — but not as a replacement. Senate Finance Committee Democrat Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) reiterated his caucus’s stance: HSAs can be an add-on, not a substitute. Wyden’s staff is issuing a report underscoring Democratic opposition to any plan that replaces premium subsidies with HSA-based assistance. The Democratic argument is that replacing subsidies would reduce affordability for many low-income Americans who rely on upfront premium assistance rather than tax-advantaged savings structures.
GOP proposals: Redirect subsidies into HSAs. Republicans put forward two major reforms during the hearing:
1. Fund HSAs instead of premium subsidies. Sen. Bill Cassidy promoted a shift that would boost HSA contributions tied to bronze ACA plans, effectively giving consumers tax-free dollars rather than subsidizing insurers. Cassidy argued that bipartisan reforms should “realign the health-care system to give the patient the power” — a framing intended to emphasize transparency and consumer control.
2. Convert cost-sharing reductions into direct HSA deposits. Republicans also floated redirecting CSR subsidies—currently paid to insurers to lower deductibles for low-income enrollees—into direct HSA deposits, allowing Americans to manage their own out-of-pocket expenses. One think-tank official cited in the document called the idea a “no-brainer,” reflecting conservative enthusiasm for shifting financial control away from insurance companies and toward individuals.
A broader philosophical contrast. The hearing underscored two clashing philosophies on health-care cost control:
• Republicans: Market-based reforms, consumer empowerment, HSA-driven cost transparency.
• Democrats: Expanded coverage, strengthened federal oversight, preservation of ACA premium and cost-sharing subsidies. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) confirmed Democrats will introduce a clean three-year extension of the ACA tax credits as the party’s offering for a promised vote on the tax credits.
With time running out, the debate is likely to shape the 2026 policy landscape rather than this enrollment cycle. But the hearing made clear that HSAs could become a focal point of the next major health-care fight, especially if subsidy extensions become politically contentious again. No proposal given serious consideration by leadership has gained enough ground to confidently pass in both chambers. According to polling released by KFF, 52% of marketplace enrollees registered to vote said that if their health expenses increase by $1,000 next year that would have a “major impact” on which party they vote for in the midterm elections. Democrats’ three-year extension is longer than what Republicans have said they would support, but another roadblock is whether an extension of subsidies would include Hyde amendment antiabortion language. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the Democratic ACA subsidy extension would add nearly $300 billion to federal budget deficits.
— Trump budget chief sees path to avoiding shutdown
Vought says White House is pushing flexible negotiations as Jan. 30 deadline looms
White House Budget Director Russell Vought said he is “optimistic” Congress will complete the remaining appropriations bills in time to avert another government shutdown at the end of January. Speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Vought said the administration is doing “everything we possibly can” to secure an agreement, offering flexibility in negotiations and urging Democrats to work with Republicans. Lawmakers have been deadlocked over earmarks and overall spending levels, raising concerns about whether a bipartisan spending package can come together ahead of the Jan. 30 deadline.
Meeting with White House chief of staff. House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and several cardinals met privately Thursday with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, according to Punchbowl News, which cited multiple sources. House and Senate appropriators are now trying to put together a “minibus” package of bills running through the rest of the fiscal year.
— Farmer aid details finally expected to be unveiled this week
Reports suggest funding of $12 billion to $14 billion to include large number of ag commodities
A Trump/Rollins announcement ahead. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed the administration will unveil a major emergency assistance package for farmers this week, describing it as a “bridge” to help producers survive increasingly severe financial pressures. Reports suggest the package could exceed $12 billion, though the structure has not yet been disclosed. Reports indicate the package will cover economic as well as trade injury, cover crops broadly, including specialty crops, and be delivered beginning in January, an accelerated timeline some are already saying may not be met.
Rollins, speaking in multiple forums, emphasized that the aid is being finalized and is intended to carry farmers into next year, in line with President Trump’s pledge that “no farmer [will be] left behind.” She reiterated that payments are expected to begin moving out in January, noting producers urgently need certainty as they make planting decisions and face intensifying pressure from lenders after several difficult years.
Key lawmakers echoed the urgency. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), who chairs the Senate Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee, stressed the dire financial picture across farm country, calling the aid a necessary bridge to the enhanced ARC, PLC, and crop-insurance reforms passed in the One Big Beautiful Bill. He also expects the administration to announce details within the coming week.
Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) delivered an even starker warning: “If you’re growing something in the ground… you’re losing money,” he said, urging rapid action.
House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) pointed to the combined impact of tariffs, lingering inflation, and broader economic pressure. He said he is “confident” the forthcoming aid package will accurately reflect what farmers are experiencing on the ground.
Bottom Line: With producers facing some of the tightest margins in years, expectations now hinge on this week’s announcement — and whether the bridge is large enough and strong enough to stabilize the farm economy heading into 2026.
— Senate prepares to advance nearly 100 nominees, including key USDA and trade picks
Agriculture-focused positions — spanning food safety, trade negotiations, congressional liaison work, and oversight — are set for confirmation as part of a large en bloc package headed to the Senate floor this week
A sweeping en bloc package of 97 executive-branch nominees is set for Senate consideration this week following action by Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.). Several roles vital to U.S. agriculture are included in the slate, positioning the administration to fill long-running vacancies across USDA and USTR.
Among the most significant for farm and trade policy: Dr. Julie Callahan is poised for confirmation as Chief Agricultural Negotiator at the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, a central role as commodity groups push for stronger market access and enforcement. Dr. Mindy Brashears — returning to USDA in a role she previously held — is nominated to serve as Undersecretary for Food Safety, a post that directs key regulatory frameworks for the meat, poultry, and processing sectors.
Former Congresswoman Yvette Herrell of New Mexico has been tapped to lead USDA’s Congressional Relations office, positioning her as a primary liaison between agriculture committees and the department. Also in the package is John Walk, nominated to serve as USDA Inspector General, a critical oversight role as the department prepares new farm-income supports, disaster programs, and tariff-mitigation measures.
All four nominees are expected to receive floor votes as part of this week’s scheduled confirmation package.
— Lawmakers, farm groups mobilize to oppose hidden cut to prevent-plant buy-up
Controversial rule quietly ends the +5% prevented-planting buy-up, triggering nationwide backlash and a looming 60-day fight to reverse the change
A Thanksgiving Eve regulation (link) that otherwise delivers several wins for U.S. farm and ranch families contains one explosive provision: the elimination of the +5% buy-up under prevented planting coverage. Widely believed to have originated with “bean counters” (OMB) outside USDA, the proposal is already drawing sharp pushback. Lawmakers and agricultural organizations across the country are preparing to flood the 60-day comment period with objections, warning that the change would harm producers at a difficult economic moment. Link to our initial report on this time on Dec. 5.
Of note: Sources inform this change was a surprise to RMA, who didn’t have the ability to pushback. RMS does not have the power to reinstate the buy-up for the 2026 Sales Season and the next time to update it would be the June 2026 Fall Change deadline. Thus, this is the reason behind a legislative push for changes.
The rule would apply to crops with sales closing dates from now through June, though revisions could follow — or Congress may act sooner to stop it.
Critics say the decision effectively sacrifices producers’ financial security to save roughly $70 million, a move they view as shortsighted and detached from the realities facing farm families.
Stakeholders are urging producers and groups to submit firm, respectful comments detailing the economic damage the change would inflict and pressing for its removal from the regulation. This final rule is effective Nov. 30, 2025. FCIC will accept comments on this rule until close of business Jan. 27, 2026. FCIC may consider the comments received and may conduct additional rulemaking based on the comments.
— 2026 House midterm outlook: Democrats gain early edge as cycle takes on classic midterm shape
Special elections, presidential approval, and historical trends signal a more conventional midterm — and a tough year ahead for Republicans
The emerging contours of the 2026 midterm elections increasingly resemble a traditional midterm environment — one in which the president’s party suffers losses, and the opposition stands to benefit. Despite President Donald Trump’s enduring political presence and his reputation for defying conventional expectations, early indicators point toward a midterm cycle behaving exactly the way history suggests it should.
According to Inside Elections, the recent special election in Tennessee’s 7th District added another data point in what has become a consistent trend: Democrats are overperforming across the country compared with President Trump’s 2024 results, often by double digits.
A midterm that mirrors 2018 more than 2020. While many Republicans have assumed that Trump’s unique political brand would inoculate the GOP from the typical midterm backlash, the data implies otherwise. In fact, Trump’s second-term approval rating — hovering near 41 percent — is slightly worse than it was ahead of the 2018 midterms, when Republicans lost over 40 House seats.
Inside Elections notes that Democrats are outperforming in multiple arenas:
• State-level elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and California
• House special elections in Florida and Tennessee
• Local races where Democratic margins dramatically exceed Biden or Harris benchmarks
The pattern is unmistakable: recent election results align with historical midterm dynamics, where the president’s party nearly always loses ground.
Historical patterns give Democrats the Wind at their backs. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the last 22 midterms. The exceptions — 1998 and 2002 — both featured unusual, popularity-boosting national circumstances, none of which apply today, notes Inside Elections.
Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to retake the House majority. The Inside Elections ratings show a narrow battlefield but one tilted toward Democrats, especially as Republicans face a wave of retirements and open seats, including in Arizona’s 1st District and Nebraska’s 2nd District.
Some Republicans point to 1998 and 2002 as hopeful precedents, but as the report notes, both involved highly popular presidents — far removed from Trump’s current standing.
Republican challenges: Fragmented map, candidate losses, and Trump’s turnout problem. Several structural hurdles confront Republicans heading into 2026:
1. Declining incumbent bench. Some of the GOP’s strongest incumbents are retiring, including:
• Rep. David Schweikert (AZ-1)
• Rep. Don Bacon (NE-2)
Both represent competitive districts where incumbency offered Republicans a critical edge.
2. Turnout without Trump. A central question hangs over the cycle: Can Republicans mobilize the Trump coalition when Trump isn’t on the ballot?
So far, special elections suggest the answer is no, says Inside Elections.
3. Democratic overperformance and GOP underperformance. Even in losses, Democrats have dramatically cut Republican margins in Republican-leaning districts, a warning sign for the majority party.
4. Redistricting offers only limited help. While mid-decade redistricting and ongoing litigation could offer Republicans narrow advantages in some states, Inside Elections concludes that even optimistic GOP redraws are unlikely to offset a hostile national environment.
Democratic divisions unlikely to save GOP. Republicans argue that internal Democratic arguments — ideological divides, competitive primaries, and party branding issues — might blunt Democratic gains. But history suggests otherwise, says Inside Elections.
Democrats made large gains in 2006 despite fractious primaries; Republicans gained 63 seats in 2010 amid a deeply divided GOP featuring Tea Party-establishment warfare. The electorate, Inside Elections notes, tends to vote based on the president and national conditions, not the unity of the opposition.
The Bottom Line: GOP still has time, but the clock is ticking. With 11 months until Election Day, Republicans still have opportunities for recovery — through economic improvement, legislative wins, or political recalibration. But absent major shifts, Inside Elections concludes the 2026 House elections are shaping up to be:
• A referendum on Trump’s presidency
• A structurally Democratic-favored environment
• A classic midterm where the opposition party is positioned to make gains
As Inside Elections concludes, Democrats do not need a wave to take back the House — just a modest shift in a political climate that already appears to favor them.
| — AG EVENTS |
Mon., Dec. 8
• National Grain and Feed Association annual Country Elevator Conference, through Tuesday, Indianapolis.
• USA Rice Outlook Conference, through Tuesday, New Orleans.
• California Farm Bureau annual meeting, through Tuesday, Anaheim, California.
Tue., Dec. 9
• Future of food: Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy hosts webinar, “Shaping the Future of Food: 2025 in Review and Looking Ahead.”
Wed., Dec. 10
• Annual Almond Conference, through Friday, Sacramento, California.
• Trade policy: Atlantic Council hosts a virtual event with USTR Jamieson Greer on “one year of a new global trade system.”
Thurs., Dec. 11
• CFTC: House Agriculture Committee hearing on CFTC reauthorization.
| — ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Wall Street expects a quarter-point rate cut at this week’s marquee event — the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday — followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Powell is widely anticipated to deliver a “hawkish cut,” signaling no inclination toward additional reductions early next year. The Fed chair has repeatedly emphasized that risks remain on both sides of the central bank’s dual mandate — achieving stable prices and maximum employment — and that monetary policy must be calibrated with those risks in mind. It will be interesting to see how many dissenters exist relative to whatever the Fed announces on rates. And the updated Fed forecasts will also be key.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge slowed down on an annual basis for the first time since April, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data for September showed. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, ran at a 2.8% annual pace in September, a deceleration from August’s 2.9% rate. Monthly core inflation came in at 0.2%, in line with August’s numbers.
— Key U.S. economic reports (Dec. 8-12)
Note: Some government data releases remain uncertain or delayed due to the previous U.S. gov’t shutdown.
Mon., Dec. 8
• WSJ CEO Council Summit, Washington, runs through Dec. 9
Tue. Dec. 9
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
• JOLTS
Wed., Dec. 10
• Employment Cost Index
• Treasury Budget
• FOMC meeting conclusion
• Fed Chair press conference
• Summary of Economic Projections
Thurs. Dec. 11
• Jobless Claims
• International Trade
• Wholesale Trade
| — KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Ag focus: USDA’s World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) and China’s crop report will be released on Tuesday, Dec. 9. Focus will also be on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly report on stockpiles, exports and production.
NOTE: U.S. releases are listed as normal, though data may be delayed or postponed due to the prior gov’t shutdown.
Also, some reports note that USDA’s Ag Trade update is out Monday, but that is incorrect. As noted in the business reports, International Trade is out this Thursday, Dec. 11, which means USDA’s Ag Trade report will likely come Monday, Dec. 15.
Mon., Dec. 8
• Export Inspections
• Export Sales (backlogged export sales for week ended Nov. 6)
• Livestock Slaughter
• China’s first batch of trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports; fertilizer exports
• Holiday: Argentina, Chile
Tue., Dec. 9
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• CFTC Commitments of Traders
• Crop Production
• Cotton Ginnings
• WASDE
• Cotton: World Markets and Trade
• Grains: World Markets and Trade
• Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
• World Agricultural Production
• Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
• China’s agriculture ministry (CASDE) monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
Wed., Dec. 10
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly data on stockpiles, exports and production
• Malaysia’s Dec. 1-10 palm oil exports
• Cotton System
• Fats & Oils
• Grain Crushings
• Flour Milling
• Broiler Hatchery
• Holiday: Thailand
Thurs., Dec. 11
• Export Sales (for week ended Nov. 13)
• Slaughter Weekly
• Brazil’s Conab releases production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
• Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
Fri., Dec. 12
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions report
• Grain Industry Association of Western Australia crop report
• CFTC Commitments of Traders
• Peanut Stocks and Processing
• Peanut Prices
| — KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
Focus: All three of the major oil forecasting agencies — OPEC, the EIA and the IEA — will publish their monthly market outlooks during the week. Energy-related gatherings will include the Gulf Petrochemicals & Chemicals Association Forum in Bahrain. Exxon Mobil will hold a webcast on its corporate plan update featuring its management committee.
Mon., Dec. 8
• Gulf Petrochemicals & Chemicals Association Forum, Bahrain; runs through Thursday
• Abu Dhabi Finance Week, runs through Thursday
• BTC Azeri loading programs (January)
• Holiday: Venezuela, Colombia
Tue., Dec. 9
• API US inventory report
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report
• GPCA Forum, Bahrain; runs through Thursday
• Exxon Mobil webcast on corporate plan update, including Q&A with management committee
Wed. Dec. 10
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• Holiday: Iraq, Thailand
Thurs., Dec. 11
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• CNPC/S&P Global annual IEEF summit on oil, gas, energy transition, Beijing; runs through Friday
• IEA Monthly Oil Market Report |
• OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
• ICE Gasoil futures for December expire
Fri., Dec. 12
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• Holiday: Mexico
