U.S. Farmers Hope Trump Admin. Rethinks Possibly Lower Than Expected Aid Plan
Is a U.S. biofuel policy rift emerging? | U.S. ag imports slide sharply in August, but trade gap persists | U.S. economy adds 119,000 jobs in surprise September rebound
Link: Coming Aid to Farmers Seen as Partial Payment Amid Uncertain Trade,
Price Outlook
Link: USDA/NASS Reschedules Reports Affected by Lapse in Federal Funding
Link: FOMC Minutes Expose Deepening Rift Over Rate Cuts, Inflation Risks
Link: Rollins: Set to Roll Out Farmer Relief Plan in Early December
Link: U.S. Trade Contracts Sharply as Trump’s Tariff Regime Takes Hold
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 14
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 14
Today’s Updates:
TOP STORIES
— Farmers bracing for smaller-than-promised aid package in early December
— Disaster assistance for 2025: Still no clear answer
— Is a U.S. biofuel policy rift emerging?
— U.S. ag imports slide sharply in August, but trade gap persists
— SNAP reapplication confusion persists
— Calley Means returns to HHS as senior adviser
— U.S./Canada trade reset faces obstacles, Hoekstra warns
— Trump actions and new disclosures drive a fast-moving news cycle
— Trump signs 213th executive order, highlighting administration’s policy priorities
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Bullish Sept. jobs report sending stocks higher
— Equities yesterday
— Nvidia’s results have “pushed out any bubble fears for another day”
— U.S. economy adds 119,000 jobs in surprise September rebound
— Visualizing the FOMC
— Fed optimists face setback as key jobs data vanishes and minutes skew hawkish
— Dollar gains on rival weakness as Fed division adds mild support
AG MARKETS
— USDA daily export sales: 132,000 MT white wheat and 462,000 MT soybeans
to China for 2025/26
— Cotton, pork only U.S. export sales activity to China in early October
— U.S. red meat trade diverges in August
— Agriculture markets yesterday
NOMINATIONS
— Senate panel advances USTR nominees
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices rebound on U.S. stock draw and market rally
— Oil prices slide as U.S. urges diplomatic push on Ukraine
WOTUS
— Federal Register publishes major WOTUS rewrite following Sackett decision
CONGRESS
— Senate’s 2026 calendar released
— Republicans race to rewrite ACA/ObamaCare subsidies as Trump demands
direct cash payments
CHINA
— Beijing considers new property support as housing slump deepens
BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR
— U.S. apologizes to Hyundai over Georgia ICE raid
— Trump defends high-skilled immigration amid conservative backlash
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in parts of the Southern Plains
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 20, 2025
| Up Front— Farmers brace for a smaller, more targeted December “bridge payment” after months of signals that $12–$13B in broad tariff-funded aid was on the way.— Aid help for 2025 remains unresolved as economists warn projected crop losses are worsening and ad hoc assistance is running out of runway.— A potential delay in cutting RIN values for imported-feedstock biofuels risks opening a rift in Trump’s biofuel strategy and creating conflicting policy signals.— U.S. ag imports fell sharply in August thanks to tariffs, but the sector still ran a multibillion-dollar trade deficit and remains on track for another record annual gap. — USDA daily export sales: 132,000 MT white wheat and 462,000 MT soybeans to China for 2025/26. Meanwhile, cotton, pork only U.S. export sales activity to China in early October. — SNAP recipients were rattled by comments about “reapplying,” before USDA clarified states will stick with standard six-month recertifications while it tightens oversight.— Calley Means has rejoined HHS as a senior adviser shaping Kennedy’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda, drawing fresh scrutiny over his wellness-industry ties.— U.S./Canada trade talks face an uphill restart as Ambassador Hoekstra warns Ontario-funded anti-tariff ads are still poisoning the political atmosphere.— A flurry of Trump-era moves spans Epstein records legislation, Summers’ exit from Harvard, a controversial Ukraine peace framework, AI chip exports to Gulf firms and rapid action on a new CFTC chair.— Trump’s 213th executive order, targeting foster care, underscores how his directive tally is dominated by trade, deregulation and energy priorities.— Equities today: Global stocks and U.S. futures are climbing on Nvidia’s blowout earnings, with traders eyeing delayed jobs data and big-box retail results.— Equities yesterday: Major U.S. indexes eked out modest gains, with the Nasdaq leading and the Dow and S&P 500 inching higher.— Nvidia’s huge profit and revenue beat — and even bigger sales forecast — is extending the AI trade and delaying any immediate “bubble” reckoning.— The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, a n upside surprise that complicates the Fed’s timing for eventual rate cuts.— Visualizing the FOMC: New charts highlight how divided Fed officials remain over the path of rates after the shutdown-disrupted autumn.— Fed optimists took a hit as the October jobs report vanished and the latest FOMC minutes skewed hawkish, sharply reducing odds of a December rate cut.— The dollar strengthened mainly on weakness in the yen and pound, with a divided Fed offering mild extra support ahead of key jobs data.— U.S. red meat exports split in August: pork stayed resilient and lamb improved, while beef shipments plunged as China effectively shut out U.S. product.— Ag futures yesterday: Grains and cattle mostly fell on Nov. 19, while lean hogs managed small gains in a generally weaker ag complex.— Senate Finance Committee advanced Julie Callahan for chief ag negotiator and Jeffrey Goettman for deputy USTR, moving both nominees toward floor votes.— Oil prices rebounded as a big U.S. crude stock draw and a broader risk-asset rally offset worries about oversupply and Russia-Ukraine diplomacy.— Prior session saw Brent and WTI drop about 2% as U.S. pressure on Ukraine to consider a negotiated settlement raised the prospect of more Russian barrels returning.— A major WOTUS rewrite in the Federal Register would narrow federal Clean Water Act jurisdiction after Sackett, shifting more permitting burdens to states and tribes.— Senate’s newly released 2026 calendar front-loads work early in the year, builds in long summer and pre-election recesses, and sets up another January funding crunch.— Republicans are scrambling to replace expiring ACA subsidies as Trump demands direct cash payments instead, with Cassidy pitching an HSA-based alternative and Democrats warning of market turmoil.— Beijing is weighing new mortgage subsidies and tax breaks to prop up its struggling housing market, but analysts doubt the measures will be bold enough to reverse the slump.— The U.S. apologized to Hyundai over a Georgia ICE raid that detained hundreds of mostly South Korean workers, after the episode rattled clean-energy investment ties.— Trump is publicly defending high-skilled immigration, arguing foreign engineers are essential to new chip and battery plants even as conservatives protest and visa-fee hikes loom.— NWS outlook: Heavy rains threaten the Southern Plains and parts of California and the Mississippi Valley, with light mountain snows expected across the interior West. — Farmers bracing for smaller-than-promised aid package in early DecemberExpectations of a major tariff-funded bailout give way to talk of a modest “bridge payment” Farm groups are expressing mounting frustration as signals from the Trump administration point to a smaller and more narrowly targeted farm-aid package than many growers had been led to expect earlier this fall (link). For weeks, producers were told that a substantial tariff-funded bailout — rumored in ag circles to reach $10–$13 billion — was likely to arrive after harvest. But USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said this week that USDA now plans to announce only a “potential bridge payment” in early December, framing it as a supplemental cushion layered on top of the ECAP and disaster programs. The shift in tone has quickly filtered through farm country, where growers are struggling with low crop prices, heavy debt loads, and high interest costs. Many producers believed tariff revenues would translate into a sweeping new support package that matched the scale of the damage from global trade fights and sluggish export demand. Instead, USDA officials have emphasized that conditions have “improved somewhat,” citing resumed soybean purchases and new export deals — a signal that the administration may no longer view a large bailout as necessary. Recall that White Houses officials and USDA Secretary Rollins initially signaled $12-$13 billion in farmer aid. The announcement was anticipated after the government shutdown ended. It was believed that producers of all crops hurting would get help. One ag industry contact said, “USDA should do all it can do because there is lots of stress in farm country, if not panic. USDA should make sure farmers are happy with how they do the aid program. That’s the key. Don’t whiff.” The disappointment is amplified by timing. The plan was widely expected in October, but the 43-day government shutdown pushed the announcement deep into the fall cash-flow crunch, when land rents, operating loans, interest payments, and fertilizer pre-pays all come due. With ECAP already capped and disaster funds largely spoken for, many growers say a modest December payment, while welcome, won’t come close to filling the gap left by weak commodity prices and months of uncertainty. What USDA may announce in early December. Expected to be smaller, reportedly under $10 billion, and more targeted than the large tariff-relief package farmers anticipated. Designed to backfill the period when export demand slumped and prices sagged, but not a broad, MFP-style compensation program. Why farmers feel shortchanged: Growers believed tariff revenues — boosted after Trump’s August global tariff order — would support a major bailout equal to 2018–2019 MFP-style payments. Instead they’re hearing that better trade flows and lower urgency may limit the scope. Trump administration officials stress no final decisions have been made and final details could still be altered based on initial feedback of possible plans. If the package is cut to under $10 billion, it will be a major blow, based on calls and emails from the U.S. ag sector. Said one: “We have been told for months $12-$13B is on the way when government opens. The shutdown ended a while back and now some reports signal $7-$9B because things are getting better out here??? Ag is about the last to take people at their word and make a deal on a handshake. There is an unwritten trust in this president. The people who work for the president should honor the word he gave. Why can’t they just do ECAP and something to deal with the other crops? Unforced error.” Said a Washington contact: “That’s not a very good strategy. Farmers are trying to secure credit now. China moved soybean market but as far as I can tell that’s it. In December 2024, Dems treated help for ag like it was a partisan thing. If they do that again, the Trump administration will have placed itself in a position to have to bargain for what it could have just done.” — Disaster assistance for 2025: Still no clear answerTexas A&M economists warn Washington is “eerily quiet” as projected 2025 farm losses exceed last year’s The farm economy’s prolonged downturn has left producers exhausted — and increasingly anxious — about whether meaningful disaster assistance will materialize for 2025. After nearly a decade of ad hoc aid, many growers want to escape what Bart Fischer calls a system where support “is simply finding its way into even higher land values (or higher cash rents) or higher input costs,” rather than stabilizing farm income. Co-author Joe Outlaw adds that despite improvements made in the One Big Beautiful Bill, most of that safety-net relief will not reach producers until October 2026 — far too late to address the acute losses farmers are facing now. Shutdown delays — and Washington silence. The explosive combination of stubbornly high production costs, depressed commodity prices, and trade uncertainty pushed producer concerns to a “fever pitch” this fall. But the two-month government shutdown derailed attention, and the recent deal to reopen agencies did nothing to address 2025 crop-year losses. While Congress approved $30.78 billion last year for economic and natural disaster losses, it has provided $0 so far for 2025 — even as projected losses worsen. “Washington has been eerily quiet on the topic,” Fischer and Outlaw write in Southern Ag Today (link). Projected 2025 losses outpace 2024. The authors note that, according to Figure 1 in their analysis (see below), losses are expected to increase across nearly all major crops:• Soybeans are the lone commodity with improved outlook, thanks largely to the China trade agreement and a projected $0.50/bu price rebound in USDA’s latest WASDE. Even so, soybean growers still face losses exceeding $100/acre.• All major commodities tracked by USDA’s cost-of-production reports are expected to lose more than $100/acre, with rice seeing losses double those of last year.• The losses extend beyond row crops: sectors like sugar face “enormous” projected shortfalls as well.  The core problem remains unchanged: chronically low commodity prices + persistently high input costs + unresolved trade uncertainty. Can trade progress shift the conversation? The softening of U.S./China tensions offers some hope that policymakers might soon refocus on the financial crisis unfolding across farm country. But Fischer and Outlaw caution that growers have few options in the near term: “Growers may be growing wary of ad hoc assistance, [but] we see little alternative in the short run.” Their long-term goal remains achieving a Farm Bill 2.0 that permanently strengthens the farm safety net and finally closes “this nearly decade-long chapter on ad hoc assistance.” — Is a U.S. biofuel policy rift emerging?Delay on imported-feedstock RIN cut raises new conflicts in Trump-era strategy A growing tension point is emerging inside the Trump administration’s biofuel agenda, as Reuters reported Wednesday that officials are weighing a delay to a major — and controversial — proposal under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Two sources told Reuters the administration is considering pushing back implementation of the plan to halve the value of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for biofuels made from imported feedstocks or for imported finished biofuel. The delay could stretch into 2027 or even 2028, well past initial expectations. The Environmental Protection Agency had included the RIN-value cut in its proposed 2026–2027 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs), with the final rule originally expected by the end of October — the statutory deadline for 2027 standards, which must be finalized 14 months before taking effect. EPA has already blown past the deadline for the 2026 standards by more than a year. Refiners and the oil industry fiercely opposed the RIN-value change, arguing it would raise compliance costs and distort the market. Biofuel producers, however, had lobbied hard for the provision, and the administration appeared to side with them when the proposal was inserted into the draft RFS rule. But delaying or sidelining the RIN cut creates a new policy contradiction. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OB3) — which overhauled the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) — explicitly bars the credit from being used for fuels made from feedstocks imported from outside North America. Unlike the RFS regulation, the OB3 language is embedded in statute and cannot be changed administratively. If the administration delays the RIN-value reduction while the OB3’s import restrictions stand untouched, it would send conflicting signals to the biofuel market:— The RFS would continue treating imported-feedstock fuels more generously, while — The 45Z credit would penalize or exclude them entirely. Such a mismatch would likely deepen uncertainty for producers planning multi-year feedstock and investment strategies. It could also reignite long-simmering tensions between the refining sector and biofuel producers — at the very moment the administration is trying to stabilize RFS implementation after repeated deadline slips. The emerging question: Is the administration willing to risk a fractured policy framework to avoid another refinery fight — despite the statutory direction Congress locked into the OB3? — U.S. ag imports slide sharply in August, but trade gap persistsTariffs pulled agricultural imports to their lowest level since 2023, yet the sector still posted a multibillion-dollar monthly deficit U.S. agricultural imports dropped in August, but did not erase the deficit. U.S. agricultural exports reached $13.21 billion in August, up slightly from $13.20 billion in July, while agricultural imports fell sharply to $15.91 billion — a $2.26 billion (12%) decline from July’s $18.17 billion. Despite the sizable drop, the sector still posted a $2.70 billion trade deficit for the month, though that was down from July’s $4.97 billion. This was the first time in seven months that the agricultural trade deficit dipped below $4 billion. The August import figure marked a major shift: at $15.91 billion, it was the lowest monthly import level since December 2023, when imports totaled $15.6 billion. Cumulative data now shows U.S. agricultural exports at $162.15 billion against imports of $203.58 billion — a deficit of $41.43 billion. Imports are only $2.5 billion away from surpassing the full-year FY 2024 total of $206.07 billion, and the deficit already exceeds last year’s full-year shortfall by $9.5 billion. Perspective: USDA currently projects FY 2025 U.S. agricultural exports at $173 billion and imports at $220 billion, for a deficit of $47 billion. Based on year-to-date data, exports would need to hit $10.85 billion in September and imports would need to come in at $16.42 billion to match USDA’s forecast. For comparison, in September 2024 U.S. agricultural exports totaled $13.21 billion while imports reached $17.34 billion, producing a $4.13 billion deficit. With tariffs likely to suppress import volumes again in September, the FY 2025 import total may come in slightly under USDA’s projection — though still at a record high. If U.S. agricultural exports match the September 2024 level of $13.21 billion, total exports would reach $175.4 billion, narrowly avoiding a year-over-year decline. Tariffs have clearly slowed U.S. agricultural imports — August imports were $1.3 billion below the August 2024 level — but the larger test lies ahead. The October-December quarter is typically the strongest export window of the fiscal year, yet U.S. agriculture failed to post a trade surplus in that period in both 2023 and 2024.  — SNAP reapplication confusion persistsRollins’ comments trigger concern as USDA clarifies states will proceed with standard recertifications Confusion is mounting over the future of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested earlier this week that recipients would need to reapply for benefits. The remark ignited widespread concern, prompting news outlets to seek clarification from the department. USA Today reported that USDA, in a Nov. 17 email, said states would instead conduct their normal recertification cycles, which occur every six months. During these routine checks, SNAP recipients must update any changes in household composition, income, medical needs, work history, or other relevant personal information. According to the USDA email, the agency will rely on “standard recertification processes for households” as it undertakes “further regulatory work” aimed at preventing fraud, waste, and abuse. While the clarification helped draw a distinction between recertifying and fully reapplying, the episode has fueled ongoing uncertainty about how future administrative changes may affect SNAP beneficiaries. — Calley Means returns to HHS as senior adviserKey figure in Kennedy’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda rejoins department, NYT reports Calley Means — the wellness entrepreneur who has become one of the most forceful voices in Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again movement — has returned to the Department of Health and Human Services as a senior adviser, The New York Times reported. The HHS directory now lists Means in the senior adviser role, and department spokesperson Andrew Nixon confirmed to the New York Times that he has been hired to support food and nutrition policy. Means had previously served as a special government employee, a temporary appointment capped at 130 days, which he vacated last month. According to the Times, Means has played an outsized role in shaping Kennedy’s health agenda. He helped coordinate a major federal report portraying a grim picture of children’s health in the U.S. and has recently pushed for sweeping changes to federal dietary guidelines. On social media, he labeled the traditional food pyramid “one of the deadliest documents in American history.” Means has become a frequent presence on panels and podcasts, amplifying Kennedy’s initiatives while sharply criticizing what he describes as a “sick-care” medical system that keeps Americans on a pharmaceutical “treadmill” and places profits ahead of prevention. His rising influence has also drawn scrutiny. As the New York Times reported, Means is the co-founder of Truemed, a start-up enabling consumers to use flexible savings accounts for wellness products. Two Democratic lawmakers recently asked Secretary Kennedy whether Means would release financial disclosure forms. HHS spokesperson Nixon told the Times that Means will divest his Truemed holdings, and the company’s general counsel said Means has fully departed and no longer plays any role there. Means, who declined to comment to the New York Times, is also the co-author of the 2024 bestseller Good Energy, written with his sister, Dr. Casey Means — President Trump’s nominee for surgeon general. Dr. Means missed a recent Senate health committee hearing after going into labor, prompting its postponement. — U.S./Canada trade reset faces obstacles, Hoekstra warnsAmerican ambassador says Ontario-funded anti-tariff ads still cloud path to renewed talks Restarting formal trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada “is not going to be easy,” U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said this week, arguing that an Ontario-funded ad campaign in the United States targeting President Trump’s tariff strategy continues to complicate the diplomatic landscape. According to a CBC report, Hoekstra told attendees at a manufacturing conference in Ottawa that both the province — and the Canadian federal government, despite its public disavowal of the ads — had crossed a significant line. Quote of note: “Targeting the president of the United States and his policies 10 days before an election, in a couple of weeks before a Supreme Court case would be heard,” he said, was bound to provoke consequences. “You do not come into America and start running political ads, government-funded political ads … and expect that there will be no consequences or reaction from the United States of America and the Trump administration.” President Trump cited the ad campaign when he abruptly halted trade negotiations, after already imposing new tariffs earlier this year on Canadian goods over concerns he linked to fentanyl trafficking. He subsequently warned he would raise tariffs by an additional 10 percentage points, though the White House has not formally announced such a move. Hoekstra said discussions could resume eventually but underscored that “it’s not going to be easy.” He added that he has urged Canadian officials to work closely with Washington to align with “the lowest tariff bucket” available under U.S. policy. “I think once we get to an agreement, these tariffs will come down,” he said. “Hopefully sooner rather than later.” — Trump actions and new disclosures drive a fast-moving news cycle — Epstein records legislation signed: President Trump signed a bill directing the Justice Department to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein, pushing forward long-awaited disclosures. — Summers exits Harvard mid-semester: Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers will not complete the semester at Harvard following the release of his correspondence with Epstein, prompting renewed scrutiny. — White House meeting with Mamdani: Trump said he will meet Friday with New York mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani at the mayor-elect’s request, marking an early outreach to incoming city leadership. Mamdani ran in part on his willingness to challenge the president, while Trump has derided the democratic socialist. In other news, Mamdani said that he would keep Jessica Tisch on as police commissioner, retaining a top city official who is popular with business leaders. — Drafted Ukraine peace plan resurfaces old demands: The administration has prepared a 28-point peace plan urging Ukraine to concede territory to Russia and abandon calls for a peacekeeping force — elements Kyiv has previously rejected. — AI chip sales approved for Gulf firms: The Commerce Department authorized the sale of up to 70,000 advanced AI chips to companies in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, signaling a major green light for high-end tech exports to the region. — Senate Ag Thursday vote on CFTC nominee: The Senate Agriculture Committee indicated Wednesday that Michael Selig, the new nominee to be the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, would advance quickly as the panel eyes granting the CFTC authority over the cryptocurrency market. — China escalates “pen and gun” pressure on Taiwan: China is stepping up a dual-track campaign to force Taiwan toward unification, leveraging its tight control over media and culture while increasing coercive actions near the island. The Wall Street Journal reports Beijing is broadcasting war-themed dramas to shape domestic support for unification and deploying armed coast-guard vessels near a disputed island chain claimed by both China and Japan. People familiar with China’s internal deliberations say this “Plan A” strategy aims to make Taiwan’s economic, diplomatic, and psychological environment so strained that entering talks with Beijing appears to be the only sustainable path forward. — Trump signs 213th executive order, highlighting administration’s policy prioritiesNew directive on foster care underscores a broader pattern dominated by trade, regulation, and energy actions Late last week, President Trump signed his 213th executive order, this one focused on reforms to the nation’s foster care system. The action adds to a steadily growing list of directives that chart the administration’s policy agenda across key sectors. Trade remains the administration’s most frequent area for executive action, according to a tally from National Journal. Of the 213 orders issued so far, 28 have centered on trade — more than any other category — reflecting the White House’s sustained use of executive authority to reshape U.S. trade relationships, impose tariffs, and redirect global supply chains. Government regulations and reform constitute the second-largest category, with a series of orders aimed at streamlining federal rules, restructuring agencies, and expanding executive branch discretion. Energy and environmental policy rounds out the next major grouping, where the administration has prioritized domestic production, permitting reform, and reductions in environmental compliance burdens.  |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— Equities today: Global markets climbed in a relief rally after AI chip leader Nvidia reported earnings that topped forecasts, while traders looked ahead to delayed U.S. jobs data due later this morning. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming earnings from Walmart Inc., Intuit Inc., and NetEase Inc. (Note: Walmart reported better-than-expected quarterly results and raised its profit and sales forecast. But its shares fell in premarket trading.) U.S. equity futures are moderately higher following better than expected NVDA earnings, which is reinjecting some “AI enthusiasm” into the markets (NVDA is up 5% pre-open). There are other signs of renewed confidence on Wall Street: The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, has fallen, while crypto prices are rebounding. On the Fed front, there are numerous speakers today including: Hammack (8:45 a.m. ET), Cook (11:00 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:40 p.m. ET) and the more dovish they are, the better. In Asia, Japan +2.7%. Hong Kong flat. China -0.4%. India +0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.6%.
— Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 19 | Point Difference from Nov. 18 | % Difference from Nov. 18 |
| Dow | 46,138.77 | +47.03 | +0.10% |
| Nasdaq | 22,564.23 | +131.38 | +0.59% |
| S&P 500 | 6,642.16 | +24.84 | +0.38% |
— Nvidia’s results have “pushed out any bubble fears for another day,” Jim Reid, a Deutsche Bank strategist, wrote in an investor note this morning. In discussing Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings, Jensen Huang, the company’s CEO, went further. “There has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” he told analysts yesterday. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.” Nvidia reported $31.9 billion in profit and $57 billion in revenues last quarter, outpacing analyst estimates. Nvidia’s financial forecasts — including $65 billion in sales this quarter — also topped estimates.
— U.S. economy adds 119,000 jobs in surprise September rebound
Figure complicates Fed decision on rates next month
The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September — a stronger-than-expected rebound that clouds the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. According to the report, the stronger-than-anticipated hiring gain comes as the labor market shows mixed signals: while the pace remains modest compared with earlier in the year, the upside surprise reduces the urgency for near-term policy easing.
For the Fed, this adds a layer of complexity. On one hand, the surprise boost argues against an imminent rate cut; on the other, broader signs of economic softness and heightened inflation risks — particularly from trade and tariffs — mean the central bank still faces conflicting pressures.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, landing at the high end of economist forecasts.
BLS clarified how the shutdown affected data collection, noting that the household survey was completed on schedule, while the establishment survey combined pre-shutdown responses with additional self-reported electronic submissions, producing an unusually high 80.2% collection rate.
The agency also confirmed it will not publish an October jobs report. November’s release—now delayed until Dec. 16 — will incorporate establishment survey data for both months, but no October household data.
Revisions also tilted softer: July and August payroll figures were marked down by a combined 33,000, pushing August into a 4,000-job loss.
Markets took the data in stride: the 10-year Treasury yield dipped, while equity futures held pre-release gains. As noted, for the Federal Reserve, the report delivers conflicting signals — a stronger-than-expected hiring figure paired with a rising unemployment rate and downward revisions that cloud the underlying momentum in the labor market.
In Short: September’s payrolls rebound may delay the Fed’s path to easing, even as inflation and global headwinds continue to weigh.
— Visualizing the FOMC
(Source: Wells Fargo Economics)
— Fed optimists face setback as key jobs data vanishes and minutes skew hawkish
Missing October employment report and hawkish FOMC minutes dampen hopes for a December rate cut
Rate cut hopes plunge. Those hoping the Federal Reserve might deliver another quarter-point rate cut at its December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were dealt a double dose of discouraging news Wednesday.
First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will not publish a standard October nonfarm payrolls report. Because the household survey couldn’t be retroactively collected during the shutdown, the BLS will fold October’s current employment statistics into the November report, due Dec. 16.
Without the clarity of an October read on labor conditions, advocates for a December cut may find themselves with a thinner case. Minutes from the FOMC’s Oct. 28–29 meeting, released at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, added to the headwinds by signaling a tilt toward caution. “The minutes … revealed a wide divide at the Fed, but the hawks looked to have had much more airtime than the doves — and by a wide margin,” wrote David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. He tallied 12 dovish remarks in the minutes versus 16 hawkish ones.
“Digging deeper … it is also clear that the hawks have much more conviction in their view as compared with the doves,” Rosenberg added. Assigning numerical weights to the Fed’s pronouns — “few,” “some,” “many,” “most” — he concluded the document was “more hawkish than dovish by more than a factor of two.”
Odds of a December cut sank to 32.7%, which compares to 50.1% on Tuesday and 93.7% on Oct. 17, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders see a roughly two-thirds chance of at least one cut through January. That’s down slightly from 70% on Tuesday.
— Dollar gains on rival weakness as Fed division adds mild support
Sevens Report: Greenback rises as yen, pound slide; traders eye jobs data for next breakout
The U.S. dollar advanced Wednesday, not because of any notably bullish dollar-specific catalyst, but largely due to pronounced weakness in other major currencies, according to the Sevens Report. The Dollar Index climbed 0.7%.
The greenback opened stronger as both the yen and the British pound slumped. The yen dropped 0.9% amid mounting economic anxiety and speculation that rate hikes could be pushed further out. The pound fell 0.7% after a slightly better-than-expected CPI print (3.4% y/y vs. expectations of 3.5%), which reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates at its next meeting. Those declines lifted the Dollar Index early, while the euro slipped in sympathy, falling 0.5%.
The Sevens Report noted that while the day wasn’t driven by classic dollar-bullish news, the FOMC minutes provided a modest boost in the afternoon. The minutes did not contain a hawkish surprise, but they underscored a deeply divided Federal Reserve — a division that could complicate expectations for a December rate cut. That reminder helped the dollar firm further, pushing the Dollar Index above 100 heading into today’s jobs report. If that data runs “hot,” the Sevens Report said the index could break to multi-month highs, potentially above 101.
Treasury yields were little changed, with Wednesday’s developments having minimal impact on the broader outlook for inflation or growth. The 10-year yield will trade off the approaching wave of economic data, and a stronger-than-expected run — beginning with today’s jobs report — would likely push yields higher. However, the report noted that yields would need to move toward and through 4.50% before posing a meaningful headwind to equities.
| AG MARKETS |
— USDA daily export sales: 132,000 MT white wheat and 462,000 MT soybeans to China for 2025/26.
— Cotton, pork only U.S. export sales activity to China in early October. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report for the week ended Oct. 2 showed activity for 2025/26 only for upland cotton , with net sales of 28,471 running bales and exports of 4,508 running bales, putting the outstanding sales level at 88,499 running bales. For pork, there were net sales of 6,138 metric tons with exports of 3,463 metric tons, putting outstanding sales at 21,215 metric tons.
— U.S. red meat trade diverges in August
USMEF: Pork stays strong, beef falls sharply on China lockout, lamb gains ground
U.S. red meat exports showed mixed results in August as newly released USDA data — compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) — revealed continued strength in pork and rising lamb shipments, contrasted with a steep decline in beef exports driven by China’s effective closure of its market to U.S. product.
Pork: Strong August, Led by Mexico and Central America
According to USMEF, August pork exports reached 236,311 mt, down just 1% from last year, with export value slipping 2% to $685.9 million. Mexico once again carried the month, with shipments up 8% to 102,790 mt — the fifth largest monthly volume ever — and value rising 9% to $252.3 million, the second highest on record.
For January–August, pork exports were 3% behind last year’s record pace, hurt primarily by reduced shipments to China due to retaliatory tariffs. The tariff rate on U.S. pork and variety meats was 57% until it dropped to 47% on Nov. 10.
Other highlights:
Central America: January–August exports hit a record 118,257 mt, up 22%; value surged 25% to $377.5 million.
Colombia: August shipments fell sharply (down 29%), but year-to-date exports remain on a record pace.
Other markets trending higher: Korea, the Caribbean, Australia, the Philippines.
Trending lower: China, Japan, Canada, Taiwan, Hong Kong.
Pork export value averaged $67.74 per head in August (up 5%), with exports accounting for 31% of total production.
Beef: Exports sink as China lockout deepens
Beef exports continued their steep 2025 decline as China maintains a multi-layered block on U.S. beef access. August beef exports totaled 83,388 mt, down 19%, the lowest since June 2020. Value fell 18% to $695.5 million.
Exports to China collapsed to just 862 mt, down 94% from a year ago. USMEF notes that China has failed to renew registrations for most U.S. plants and has suspended 16 facilities since June and 30 since 2022—effectively locking out U.S. beef. Year-to-date losses in the China market are estimated at $832 million through October.
Other market trends:
Korea: August volume down 1.5%, but value up 3% to $168 million; Jan–Aug exports up 8% in volume and 9% in value.
Central America: August exports up 5% to 1,512 mt; value up 50%.
Caribbean & South America: Stronger shipments led by the Dominican Republic, Bahamas, Jamaica, and Chile.
Lower than last year: Japan, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, the Middle East.
Per-head beef export value averaged $372.10 in August (down 5%), with exports accounting for 12.1% of total production.
Lamb: Caribbean strength pushes August jigher
U.S. lamb exports rose sharply in August, with muscle-cut shipments totaling 220 mt (up 58%) and value jumping 59% to $1.26 million, driven by the Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, and Canada.
January–August lamb exports:
Volume: 2,049 mt, up 46%
Value: $10.9 million, up 29%
Mexico: Up 60% in volume and 75% in value, despite a softer August
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 19 | Difference from Nov. 18 |
| Corn | December | 4.29 3/4 | -7 cents |
| Soybeans | January | 11.36 1/4 | -17 1/4 cents |
| Soybean Meal | December | 318.90 | -8.10 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 51.10 cents | -107 points |
| Wheat (SRW) | December | 5.36 3/4 | -9 3/4 cents |
| Wheat (HRW) | December | 5.15 1/2 | -10 3/4 cents |
| Spring Wheat | December | 5.81 1/4 | -1 1/2 cents |
| Cotton | December | 62.30 cents | -27 points |
| Live Cattle | December | 216.30 | -3.725 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | 321.45 | -4.60 |
| Lean Hogs | December | 78.85 | +0.95 |
| NOMINATIONS |
— Senate panel advances USTR nominees
Finance Committee moves Callahan and Goettman one step closer to confirmation
The Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday voted to advance two of President Trump’s nominees for senior positions at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), clearing the way for full Senate confirmation votes.
Julie Callahan — currently assistant USTR for agricultural affairs and commodity policy — was approved as the nominee for chief agricultural negotiator.
Jeffrey Goettman, a counselor to USTR Jamieson Greer and former senior Export-Import Bank official, was advanced to serve as deputy USTR overseeing Africa, the Western Hemisphere, Europe, the Middle East, environment, labor and industrial competitiveness.
Both nominees were voted out of committee by identical 17–10 margins.
Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Id.) praised the selections, saying Goettman’s Export-Import Bank background “will serve him well as he ensures American interests are protected abroad,” and noting that Callahan’s endorsement by more than 80 trade associations “testifies to her ability to promote U.S. agriculture in international negotiations.”
“I am confident in each nominee’s ability to serve Americans’ best interest and implement the President’s agenda,” Crapo added, expressing support for both nominees and two additional presidential picks approved the same day.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Oil prices rebound on U.S. stock draw and market rally
Crude benchmarks edge higher as refining demand offsets geopolitical and oversupply concerns
Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses as a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories and a broad risk-asset rally helped lift sentiment.
Brent crude rose 57 cents, 0.9%, to $64.08 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 51 cents, 0.9%, to $59.95. The modest rebound followed a roughly 2% drop on Wednesday after reports suggested Washington was renewing a diplomatic push to end the Russia-Ukraine war — a potential catalyst for more Russian barrels returning to the market and pressuring prices.
Global equity markets also strengthened, with investors cheering stronger-than-expected earnings from AI chipmaker Nvidia, offering additional support to oil prices, which often track broader risk appetite.
On the supply side, U.S. sanctions on dealings with Russian energy majors Rosneft and Lukoil hit a key deadline Friday, with Lukoil and potential buyers facing a December 13 cutoff to finalize international asset transactions.
From the demand side, the latest U.S. government data provided a boost. Crude inventories dropped by 3.4 million barrels to 424.2 million in the week ending Nov. 14 — far exceeding expectations for a 603,000-barrel draw — as refineries ramped up runs and export demand strengthened. Still, analysts noted a first-in-over-a-month build in gasoline and distillate stocks, signaling softer consumption.
Upside remained constrained by lingering oversupply worries and a U.S. dollar hovering near a six-month high, which makes oil costlier for non-U.S. buyers.
— Oil prices slide as U.S. urges diplomatic push on Ukraine
Prospect of renewed Russian supply weighs on Brent and WTI amid sanctions deadline
Oil prices fell sharply Wednesday as the U.S. increased diplomatic pressure on Ukraine to consider a negotiated path toward ending the war, raising the prospect that more Russian barrels could eventually return to the global market. Brent settled $1.38 lower at $63.51, while WTI dropped $1.30 to $59.44, with both benchmarks down 2.1%.
According to reports, Washington has presented Kyiv with a framework that includes concessions on territory and certain weapons. While far from finalized, the proposal has traders considering whether geopolitical risk premiums could shrink if talks gain momentum. Any easing of the conflict could unlock sanctioned Russian supplies, adding to market anxiety at a time when volumes in floating storage are already rising.
Caution also stems from the approaching Nov. 21 deadline for companies to cease dealings with Russia’s major producers under recently imposed U.S. sanctions. U.S. officials argue the measures are already squeezing Moscow’s revenues and will curb export capacity over time, though Russia insists output remains steady and that it expects to meet its OPEC+ quota soon.
Some of the day’s losses were offset by U.S. data showing a larger-than-expected draw in domestic crude inventories, driven by stronger refinery runs and higher export volumes.
| WOTUS |
— Federal Register publishes major WOTUS rewrite following Sackett decision
EPA and Army Corps propose significant changes to the definition of “waters of the United States” (WOTUS), aiming to narrow federal jurisdiction and increase regulatory clarity
The proposed rule published in the Federal Register — lays out a comprehensive overhaul of the definition of “WOTUS by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The proposal responds directly to the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2023 Sackett v. EPA ruling and seeks to realign Clean Water Act jurisdiction with the Court’s more restrictive interpretation.
Key points of the proposed rule
• Implements Sackett v. EPA (2023): The agencies acknowledge that their Amended 2023 Rule raised concerns among stakeholders about insufficient adherence to the Sackett standard. The new proposal tightens federal jurisdiction to match the Court’s requirement that only waters with a “relatively permanent” flow and a “continuous surface connection” to traditional navigable waters be covered. The rule would add regulatory definitions for both terms for the first time.
• Eliminates interstate waters as an independent category: The proposal deletes the longstanding category asserting federal jurisdiction over interstate waters per se. This represents one of the most consequential reversals from prior regulatory regimes.
• Revises Jurisdiction Over Lakes, Ponds, Ditches, and Tributaries: The agencies propose:
- Removing the term “intrastate” from the lakes-and-ponds provision.
- Reinstating definitions for “ditch,” “tributary,” “prior converted cropland,” and “waste treatment system.”
- Tightening qualifiers so only truly federally connected features fall under the Clean Water Act.
• Adds a new groundwater exclusion: The rule proposes a formal exclusion for groundwater — consistent with long-standing practice and Supreme Court guidance.
Regulatory rationale
EPA and the Army state that the proposal is grounded in:
• The text, structure, and history of the Clean Water Act
• The Supreme Court’s direction in Sackett
• The need to restore the “careful balance” between federal power and state/tribal authority
• The statutory limits of the Commerce Clause
The agencies emphasize that ecological importance cannot be the basis for asserting jurisdiction — a point the Court stressed in rejecting broader federal claims.
Expected impacts
• Deregulatory effects: The proposal is expected to reduce the number of Section 404 permits and decrease areas requiring federal mitigation. While acknowledging significant uncertainty, EPA says the rule will likely produce substantial cost savings but also forgone environmental benefits.
• Greatest impact: Section 404 dredge-and-fill program: Wetland coverage is expected to contract meaningfully, shifting responsibility to states and tribes for areas now outside federal reach.
Public participation: EPA and the Corps will accept comments until Jan. 5, 2026, and will hold two hybrid public meetings for stakeholder input.
| CONGRESS |
— The Senate’s 2026 calendar was released. The schedule (link) has the Senate out between Aug. 8 and Sept. 13. The chamber is out all but two days in October ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Senators will return for the second session of this Congress on Jan. 5, kicking off a funding sprint to start the year with a week off toward the end of the month. The stopgap measure that reopened the government extends spending for most agencies through Jan. 30, setting that up as the first major agenda item of the new year.
Senators plan to be in session for the first week of August but then have the rest of the month off as well as the first part of September. The chamber will also hold recess weeks around July 4, Thanksgiving, and Christmas.
The House released its calendar for next year on Tuesday (link). The two chambers will be in alternating weeks leading up to the government funding deadline: the House is set to be on recess the week of Jan. 26, while the Senate set to be is out the week of Jan. 19.
Note: Link to a combined House/Senate calendar from CQ/Roll Call.
The annual schedule is subject to change depending on the agenda. The Senate’s 2025 calendar planned for the chamber to convene on Fridays, but it didn’t end up working most of them. The new Senate schedule also includes Friday work.
— Republicans race to rewrite ACA/ObamaCare subsidies as trump demands direct cash payments
GOP scrambles for a mid-December plan as experts warn of market turmoil and Democrats question feasibility
Republicans are rushing to craft an alternative to the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) enhanced subsidies before they expire at year’s end, but President Trump’s demand to reroute those subsidy dollars into direct payments to consumers has upended negotiations and complicated the GOP’s already-tight timeline.
Trump has insisted the only acceptable path is “sending the money directly back to the people” — a position that alarms health-policy experts, who warn such direct cash allowances could trigger a destabilizing “death spiral” by prompting healthier individuals to leave the marketplace entirely.
Trump’s push intensifies GOP uncertainty. Trump this week told Congress not to “waste” time on extending ACA enhanced subsidies, calling instead for a system that would give Americans cash to buy their own “much better” insurance.
He said he has privately discussed the idea with some Democrats, arguing insurance companies are making excessive profits and that direct payments are the only viable path to “great Healthcare in America.”
Republican leaders say Trump’s comments have scrambled already difficult bipartisan discussions, as the proposal is vague and overlaps in concept with how ACA subsidies already operate. Lawmakers must also navigate a 60-vote Senate threshold for any year-end deal.
Cassidy floats HSA-based alternative. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who leads the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, has advanced the broad outlines of a plan that would replace enhanced ACA subsidies with prepaid, untaxed Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). Cassidy says his idea aligns with Trump’s call to move money “directly to consumers.” Under his approach:
• Consumers enrolled in bronze-tier ACA plans would receive an HSA loaded with federal money.
• The accounts could be used for out-of-pocket expenses but not premiums.
• Funding levels and allocation formulas remain unclear.
• Cassidy has not released a full bill or cost estimate.
Critics argue HSAs don’t help people who can’t afford premiums to begin with, and that eliminating enhanced subsidies would sharply raise monthly costs.
Clock is ticking toward a December deadline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has promised Democrats a vote on the subsidies in the second week of December, but it is unclear whether Trump’s stance has foreclosed a bipartisan extension. Several Republicans say the only realistic short-term option is a one-year extension with modest conservative policy changes, warning that otherwise premiums will spike for millions.
Negotiations are also complicated by GOP demands to apply stricter anti-abortion restrictions (Hyde language) to subsidy reforms — an approach Democrats oppose.
Meanwhile, open enrollment is already underway, and customers have roughly a month to sign up for January coverage.
The health-advocacy group Keep Americans Covered stressed that extending enhanced tax credits remains the only “realistic, viable” option given the tight timeline.
| CHINA |
— Beijing considers new property support as housing slump deepens
Mortgage subsidies and tax breaks under review, Bloomberg reports
China is weighing a new package of housing-market support as policymakers grow increasingly concerned that the prolonged property downturn could threaten financial stability, Bloomberg reported.
Measures under discussion include nationwide mortgage subsidies for first-time buyers, higher income-tax rebates for mortgage borrowers, and lower home-transaction costs. The talks have been underway since at least the third quarter, though timing and final details remain uncertain.
Developer stocks briefly jumped more than 3% on the news.
The moves come as home sales continue to fall, price declines deepen, and bad loans at Chinese banks hit a record 3.5 trillion yuan, according to Bloomberg citing Fitch Ratings. Analysts say the steps may offer only limited relief: demand remains weak, mortgage balances are shrinking, and many households face negative equity.
Bloomberg Economics warned the proposed measures are “probably not bold enough,” given that cheaper mortgages may not attract buyers in a declining market.
| BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR |
— U.S. apologizes to Hyundai over Georgia ICE raid
Company says September detentions strained its clean-energy investment plans
Hyundai CEO José Muñoz said the U.S. government has formally apologized to the automaker for the September Immigration and Customs Enforcement raid at the Hyundai–LG Energy Solution battery plant in Georgia, where federal agents detained 475 workers, most of them South Korean nationals.
The images of workers shackled and escorted by armed agents drew immediate outrage in South Korea and raised alarms inside Hyundai about whether the episode could jeopardize its multibillion-dollar U.S. clean-energy and battery-supply-chain investments.
Muñoz said the apology acknowledged the “unacceptable handling” of the operation and the diplomatic fallout it triggered. He added that Hyundai remains committed to its U.S. expansion but has privately warned that incidents like the September raid risk undermining trust needed for major long-term investments.
U.S. officials have not publicly detailed what prompted the operation, but people familiar with the investigation say it centered on alleged visa and employment-documentation issues involving contract labor at the site.
— Trump defends high-skilled immigration amid conservative backlash
President argues U.S. factories need foreign engineers to fuel advanced manufacturing boom
President Donald Trump doubled down on his support for admitting skilled foreign workers, arguing that U.S. advanced manufacturing cannot expand without engineers and technicians from abroad — even as the stance sparks anger among parts of his MAGA base.
Speaking Wednesday at the U.S./Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, Trump said major new semiconductor projects, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s multibillion-dollar Arizona plant supporting Nvidia AI chip production, cannot be staffed with “people off an unemployment line.” Instead, he said, companies will “have to bring thousands of people with them,” adding, “And I’m going to welcome those people.”
The comments come as the administration faces accusations of inconsistency after a high-profile September raid at a Hyundai–LG Energy battery factory in Georgia detained numerous South Korean engineers, rattling relations with Seoul and raising investor concerns. (See previous item.)
Trump also highlighted his relationship with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who has warned that the administration’s planned $100,000 H-1B visa fee threatens the talent pipeline needed for U.S. tech leadership. Business groups across the semiconductor, software, and retail sectors have echoed those concerns, urging Trump to reconsider the fee hike.
The president acknowledged his position may frustrate some supporters, noting, “My poll numbers just went down, but with smart people, they’ve gone way up.” Conservative commentators such as Fox News’ Laura Ingraham have argued that bringing in more foreign workers undermines efforts to lift U.S. wages, but Trump countered that America “doesn’t have certain talents and people have to learn.”
Trump said his goal is to bring in high-skilled workers who can train Americans in advanced technologies like chip fabrication: “We want those people to teach our people how to make computer chips and how to make other things.”
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains on Thursday… …There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California, the Central/Southern Plains, and the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley on Thursday… …There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Friday… …Light snow over parts of the southern Utah Mountains, the Colorado Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
