U.S. Gov’t Reopens; Next Steps in Getting Back
Survey: Less than half of farm producers seen turning a profit in 2025
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 7
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 7
Today’s Updates:
U.S. GOVERNMENT & POLICY
— U.S. gov’t reopens after 43-day shutdown
— USDA officials now giving reasons why trade-related aid may not come this week
— Next steps as the U.S. gov’t reopens
AGRICULTURE & RURAL ECONOMY
— Less than half of producers seen turning a profit in 2025
— More info from banker survey: Land values and more
TRADE & TARIFFS
— Administration signals targeted tariff relief on key imported foods
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today
— Equities yesterday
— Disney posts mixed results as streaming gains can’t offset TV declines
AG MARKETS
— Grain sorghum exports to China collapse to decade lows
— Agriculture markets yesterday
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices reversed course higher Thursday after yesterday’s losses
— Oil prices tumbled Wednesday as OPEC signals market balance in 2026
— Indonesia to begin ‘B50’ biodiesel road tests in December
HPAI / BIRD FLU
— Spain orders nationwide poultry lockdown
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Snow continues across Northeast; storm system bringing rain
and mountain snow to California
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 13, 2025
Up Front — U.S. gov’t reopens after 43-day shutdown Government reopens through Jan. 30 after a narrow 222–209 House vote, with six Democrats crossing over. Fight now shifts to ACA subsidies and a crowded 78-day window to finish FY 2026 spending bills.— USDA officials now giving reasons why trade-related aid may not come this week Trade-aid announcement delayed as USDA prioritizes SNAP/WIC restart and awaits Nov. 14 Crop Production/WASDE data; soybean price shifts also affecting calculations.— Next steps as the U.S. gov’t reopens USDA, NASS, FAS and economic agencies begin staged return to full reporting, with many backlogged data releases likely to come in clusters similar to the 2019 shutdown playbook.— Less than half of producers seen turning a profit in 2025 ABA–Farmer Mac survey shows worsening row-crop conditions, tighter credit expectations, and diverging fortunes between stressed grain farmers and stronger livestock producers.— More info from banker survey: Land values Land values appear stable but increasingly vulnerable as working capital erodes; bankers report rising carryover debt, more restructuring, and heightened interest-rate sensitivity.— Administration signals targeted tariff relief on key imported foods Treasury Secretary Bessent says tariff cuts on coffee, bananas and other fully imported foods are imminent; NEC Director Hassett acknowledges talks but offers no specifics.— Equities today Markets steady after shutdown ends; investors await fresh economic data. Futures little changed following the Dow’s close above 48,000.— Equities yesterday Dow rose, S&P was flat, and Nasdaq slipped modestly in mixed Tuesday trading.— Disney posts mixed results as streaming gains can’t offset TV declines Streaming subscriber growth boosts income, but linear TV weakness and ad declines drag overall revenue slightly below expectations.— Grain sorghum exports to China collapse to decade lows U.S. sorghum shipments to China plunge 97% amid tariffs, with Australia and Argentina filling the gap; Southern Ag Today authors say a new U.S./China deal could reopen the market.— Agriculture markets yesterday Corn, soybeans and wheat mostly firm; cattle and hog futures fell.— Oil prices reversed course higher Thursday Crude edges up after prior day’s sharp losses tied to rising U.S. inventories and concerns about oversupply.— Oil prices tumbled Wednesday as OPEC signals market balance in 2026 OPEC’s new outlook showing supply–demand balance triggered a selloff in Brent and WTI.— Indonesia to begin ‘B50’ biodiesel road tests in December Indonesia will test 50% palm-oil biodiesel across vehicles, trains and machinery ahead of a selective 2026 rollout.— Spain orders nationwide poultry lockdown Spain expands mandatory indoor confinement for all poultry as bird-flu cases rise across Europe.— NWS outlook Snow persists across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, while a strong West Coast storm brings heavy rain and mountain snow to California. —U.S. gov’t reopens after 43-day shutdownHouse vote ends stalemate, but political fallout and new health-care battles await The U.S. government is open again after a bruising 43-day shutdown, ending with a 222–209 House vote that saw six vulnerable Democrats cross the aisle and two Republicans vote no. The final deal extends government funding only through Jan. 30, setting up another fight early next year — and leaving behind deep institutional and political damage. Some agencies like USDA now have their full fiscal year (FY) spending in place. Six swing-district Democrats — Henry Cuellar, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Don Davis, Tom Suozzi, Adam Gray and Jared Golden — voted for the bill; Golden is retiring. Republicans Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Greg Steube (Fla.) opposed it. Two members missed the vote. The shutdown was about one issue: the looming expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act/ObamaCare tax credits on Dec. 31. Democrats initially tried to broaden the dispute to include Medicaid cuts and Trump’s impoundment authority, but the fight ultimately centered on ACA subsidies. After more than 40 days, Democrats folded — but Republicans now face the harder decisions ahead on the topic. Senate Republicans tucked a provision into the FY 2026 Legislative Branch funding bill allowing GOP senators targeted in the Jan. 6 investigation to sue the government over the release of their phone records. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he didn’t know about the language and is upset; the House plans to try to strip it next week, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) may not go along. Regarding healthcare, some Republicans want a broader alternative plan. Trump reiterated Wednesday night that he wants subsidies directed to individuals rather than insurers. Johnson, meanwhile, hopes to avoid a Democratic discharge petition that would force a three-year extension onto the floor. Of note: Congress now has just 78 days to finish all FY 2026 spending bills. —USDA officials now giving reasons why trade-related aid may not come this weekTiming is up to White House, not USDA; gov’t reopening priorities Timing in flux. For weeks, USDA officials and some farm-state lawmakers had said just as soon as the U.S. gov’t reopened, USDA would unveil a trade-related farm aid program. But it appears that other topics have priority, including getting food nutrition programs (SNAP, WIC) back in place following passage of the FY 2026 USDA appropriations measure. Other possible issues impacting trade aid timing is USDA and others want to see results of the Nov. 14 USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. Another issue: Soybean prices have risen and this will likely impact calculations on aid to specific crops. As for when the coming aid will be detailed, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins likes to make major announcements during her various visits around farm country. —Next steps as the U.S. gov’t reopensUSDA, FAS and economic agencies prepare staggered return to full reporting after the 43-day shutdown The federal government’s restart is now officially underway after President Donald Trump signed the continuing resolution Wednesday night, ending the 43-day shutdown that froze critical agricultural and economic data flows. Below is what comes next as agencies unwind weeks of backlogged reporting and return to regular operations. USDA begins resetting operations. USDA has already removed shutdown-related notices from its websites, beginning the process of restoring normal service. Past precedent — especially the 2018-2019 shutdown — is the clearest guide for how quickly different agencies will come back online. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). NASS is expected to release an updated report schedule shortly. The 2019 shutdown provides a roadmap: In 2019, the shutdown ended Jan. 25; by Jan. 30 NASS issued a comprehensive update covering 42 missed reports, with details on which would be rescheduled, delayed, or canceled. Some weekly reports were combined into single catch-up publications. For example, Peanut Prices was reissued Feb. 8 as a consolidated report covering six weeks of missed data. Additional adjustments followed on Feb. 6, Feb. 22, and March 11, with some release dates pushed into April. Several items in 2019 were only released through QuickStats, a step NASS may repeat this time. Unlike 2019, this reopening does not coincide with Census of Agriculture reporting, simplifying the workload somewhat. Other USDA analytical agencies, including the Economic Research Service (ERS), are also expected to issue updated calendars. Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) The biggest question for markets is the weekly Export Sales report. In 2019, FAS published two weekly reports shortly after reopening—covering the weeks ending Dec. 27, 2018, and Jan. 3, 2019. Weekly data for the period Jan. 10–Feb. 7 were not released individually; instead, an amalgamated report was issued on Feb. 14. On Feb. 22, FAS released totals covering all activity from Jan. 4 to Feb. 14. Daily sales reporting resumed quickly in 2019 (Jan. 29), with no retroactive daily announcements covering the shutdown window. This year, FAS is expected to take a similar approach: some individual weekly reports may appear, but most will likely be combined into accumulated export sales data. Economic data agencies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Census Bureau, and other statistical agencies are preparing revised release schedules for the economic data missed during the shutdown. Unlike during the 2018-2019 lapse, BLS did not continue publishing during this shutdown, so markets are awaiting detailed catch-up calendars. Key reports — employment, CPI, retail sales, housing, and manufacturing — are likely to be rescheduled in clusters over the next several weeks. Wider government operations. As agencies reopen: Air travel: The Transportation Department must restore normal operations at 40 major airports still affected by air-traffic controller shortages. No timeline is set yet for a full return to typical flight volumes. SNAP benefits: With government funding restored, full SNAP payments will resume, rendering pending court challenges over emergency funding moot. Federal communications: Additional announcements across multiple departments are expected in the coming days as backlogs are assessed. Bottom Line: The end of the shutdown marks the beginning — not the end — of the recovery process. Agency calendars will be fluid for several weeks as the government works through accumulated delays, backlogs and system restarts across USDA, FAS, economic agencies and domestic operations. —Less than half of producers seen turning a profit in 2025ABA–Farmer Mac survey shows worsening credit conditions as crop-sector stress spreads The newest American Bankers Association–Farmer Mac Agricultural Lender Survey paints a stark picture of the year ahead: profitability, credit quality, and working-capital strength are all expected to deteriorate in 2025, driven largely by deepening stress in the grain and cotton sectors. The survey — released as ag lenders convene in St. Louis — reflects the most pessimistic reading from farm bankers since 2020. Profitability outlook at five-year low. Lenders expect only about 52% of producers to be profitable next year, the smallest share in half a decade. The drop is concentrated among row-crop producers, where oversupply, sluggish export demand, and persistently high production costs continue to squeeze margins. Many bankers cited declining liquidity and more operations burning equity to cash-flow annual expenses. Crop-sector anxiety has surged. Concern among lenders about grain and cotton growers has jumped to almost 70% — a remarkable increase from 15% two years ago. Bankers noted:• Flat to lower commodity prices even before the 2025 crop year begins.• Higher interest costs biting into operating margins.• Elevated land, cash rent, and fuel expenses leaving little room for error. By contrast, the livestock sector remains the financial bright spot. Strong domestic demand, firm beef and dairy prices, and tight supplies have kept cattle and protein operations comparatively resilient. Credit quality and liquidity pressures intensify. Nearly all lenders reported rising concern about credit deterioration, especially among leveraged grain farms with declining working capital. Many expect:• More restructuring requests• Tighter underwriting• Higher collateral requirements• Closer monitoring of operating lines “Credit quality concerns have intensified,” said Ryan Lee, ABA’s research and economic policy manager, who emphasized that lenders are proactively adjusting loan terms as margins narrow. Farm debt expected to rise. Roughly 93% of lenders anticipate farm debt loads will increase over the next 12 months — the highest reading in the survey’s recent history. Despite this, access to credit remains relatively strong:• 84% of loan applications were approved over the past year• 88% of existing loans are expected to be renewed in 2025 Many bankers said they are striving to maintain access to capital while tightening risk management. Top concerns for 2025. Respondents identified several dominant risks:• Low commodity prices relative to rising costs• High interest rates and refinancing pressures• Volatile land values and uncertainty in cash rents• Strained borrower liquidity• Continued weakness in export demand for grains Bottom line: The survey underscores a widening split between crop and livestock profitability and points to a financially tougher year for much of rural America. While lenders have no immediate plans to restrict credit, they are preparing for more restructuring, thinner borrower liquidity, and rising debt levels as the 2025 crop year approaches. —More info from banker survey: Land valuesStability on the surface, pressure beneath Ag bankers expect land values to remain mostly stable, but the survey notes that much of the stability is driven by:• Limited land for sale• Strong non-farm investor interest• Cash buyers in key regions However, lenders made clear that underlying pressure is building:• Many bankers said land values are now “vulnerable” if commodity prices stay low into 2026.• Several noted a “slow erosion in the premium” on top-quality cropland.• Some expect softening in cash rents, particularly in areas where working capital is being drawn down aggressively. A number of lenders flagged that higher interest costs may finally cap land-price growth, particularly for leveraged buyers. Working capital: Rapid deterioration among crop farms. Lenders reported one of the largest year-over-year declines in working capital since the 2015–16 downturn. Top observations:• Many row-crop borrowers have now used up the cash buffers they built during 2021–22.• Multiple lenders warned that “equity erosion” is starting to appear in moderate-risk grain farms.• “Liquidity-short” borrowers are expected to increase meaningfully in 2025. One banker summarized it bluntly: “Working capital burn is widespread in grains. I expect more borrowers to come in short on operating lines next spring.” borrower stress indicators: What bankers are watching. Lenders highlighted several red flags that have risen sharply over the past 12 months:1. Rising carryover debt. More producers are extending part of their operating loans into long-term notes — the first time this trend has reappeared since early-pandemic years. 2. Higher demand for restructuring. Banks expect more:• Interest-only periods• Term extensions• Consolidation of multiple notes 3. Increased collateral requirements. Several lenders said they are already moving from 60–65% loan-to-value (LTV) ratios down to 50–55% for higher-risk crop borrowers. 4. More off-farm income reliance. This is becoming a significant liquidity source for many mid-size grain operations. Interest-rate sensitivity: A top financial threat. The survey shows that bankers view interest costs as nearly as damaging as low crop prices:• Many producers will face another reset of rates in 2025 on variable notes taken out in 2021–23.• Several lenders warned that the “fourth year of elevated rates” is when stress usually peaks.• More operations are struggling to meet coverage ratios, especially newly expanded farms that financed equipment or land during the high-price years. Collateral trends: Banks bracing for more liquidation pressures. Lenders expect:• More equipment liquidation by producers trying to avoid operating-line carryover.• Greater use of additional real estate to secure annual operating loans.• Borrowers “maximizing depreciation schedules” to trim tax burdens, which reduces book equity further. One banker noted that producers are becoming “asset rich but cash poor,” increasing reliance on collateral instead of cash flow. (Sounds like the 1980s…) Policy and market risks: What bankers say could make 2025 worse. The survey flagged several macro risks beyond producer control: 1. Unknown effects of tariffs and retaliatory pressures. Lenders mentioned export weakness for grains as their top non-financial risk. 2. Interest rate uncertainty. Even with a potential late-2025 Fed cut, lenders do not expect meaningful relief this crop year. 3. Shutdown-induced reporting delays. Many bankers said a lack of USDA data (WASDE, Crop Production, farm-income tables) would hamper risk assessment if delays continue. 4. Input cost volatility. Particular concern around:• Fertilizer (especially phosphates and potash)• Fuel• Cash rents Several explicitly said fertilizer “remains a wild card,” with some dealers holding higher-cost inventory. Bottom Line: Bankers are preparing for a crop-sector recession. The expanded survey details show that lenders believe row crops are entering a full profitability downturn, even if livestock remains strong. Key takeaway themes:• Liquidity down sharply• Working capital under pressure• More carryover debt expected• Land values stable but exposed• Interest rates and weak exports are serious risks Banks plan to remain active lenders — approvals and renewals will stay high — but underwriting will tighten significantly as 2025 begins. —Administration signals targeted tariff relief on key imported foodsBessent previews near-term cuts on coffee and bananas as White House weighs broader food-price strategy; Hassett acknowledges talks but offers no specifics The Trump administration is preparing a round of tariff reductions on imported agricultural products that the United States does not grow domestically, a move aimed squarely at easing grocery prices as inflation and consumer frustration continue to shape political and economic debates. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday the administration will announce “substantial” tariff cuts “over the next couple of days,” focusing on goods where tariffs add cost but offer no protection to U.S. producers. Coffee and bananas — two of the most widely consumed, fully imported food items in America — will be among the first products included, along with other fruits sourced primarily or entirely from abroad. “That will bring the prices down very quickly,” Bessent told Fox News, emphasizing that the relief is designed to show immediate results for households grappling with persistently high grocery bills. He described the changes as part of a broader effort to align the tariff system with domestic production realities and consumer needs. The comments represent the clearest sign yet that the administration intends to carve out selective tariff rollbacks even as it continues to defend the broader tariff framework — one that has generated strong political support but also heightened pressure on consumer prices. Bessent has previously highlighted large projected tariff revenues, but his remarks this week suggest a newfound urgency to blunt the price impact on key household staples. A political and economic recalibration. The decision to ease duties on fully imported crops reflects a calculation that these tariffs serve little protective function for U.S. growers. Coffee production in the U.S. is negligible; bananas and tropical fruits are virtually nonexistent domestically. Cutting duties, in the administration’s view, delivers political and economic benefits without hurting U.S. agricultural interests. The policy pivot comes amid wider concerns over affordability — including food, housing, and energy — and arrives as the administration tries to show visible action while the government reopens after a 43-day shutdown that delayed data releases and federal operations. NEC director comments. While Bessent’s comments were explicit and time-bound, National Economic Council (NEC) Director Kevin Hassett has spoken more cautiously. He has publicly acknowledged that there have been “talks about changing tariffs for foodstuffs,” but he has not confirmed the timing, product list, or scope of the plan Bessent previewed. Hassett has also argued in recent interviews that tariffs do not automatically cause widespread consumer price increases, framing the broader strategy as compatible with affordability goals — a position that places him slightly apart from Bessent’s more aggressive push for near-term relief. What we still don’t know. Significant questions remain. Bessent did not specify the size of the tariff cuts, the detailed list of covered products, or whether the changes would be temporary or permanent. Nor has the White House disclosed whether the tariff adjustments will be paired with broader trade actions — including those tied to ongoing U.S./China negotiations or the administration’s agricultural export strategy. Also unclear is how these targeted reductions will interact with overall tariff policy, which currently projects substantial federal revenue. Cutting duties on high-volume imports like coffee could reduce federal intake, contributing to fiscal debates already intensified by the shutdown’s cost and the administration’s spending priorities. For U.S. agriculture, the targeted relief appears carefully constructed to avoid undermining domestic producers. However, fruit sectors that compete indirectly with tropical imports — such as citrus, apples, or avocados — may seek clarity to ensure tariff changes do not widen competitive disparities. Looking Ahead. The administration is expected to announce the tariff package within days, signaling a desire for both policy impact and public visibility. With consumer inflation concerns still prominent and the holiday grocery season approaching, the political calculus favors fast, tangible action. Hassett’s acknowledgment that food-tariff changes are under discussion suggests additional adjustments may follow, though the NEC has not yet confirmed details. For now, Bessent’s comments set the pace — and expectations — for what could become the administration’s first major price-relief maneuver as the government emerges from a record shutdown and economic indicators remain clouded by delayed data. What the Coming Tariff Cuts Could AffectLikely products targeted first Based on administration comments and current import/tariff structure, the first wave is expected to include: Coffee• 100% imported (main suppliers: Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam).• Tariffs currently add modest but noticeable cost, especially on processed/roasted coffee. Bananas• 100% imported (Ecuador, Guatemala, Costa Rica).• High-volume consumer staple; even a small tariff cut could yield fast price movement. Other Tropical Fruits. Possibly including:• Pineapples (Costa Rica, Honduras)• Mangoes (Mexico, Peru, Brazil)• Papayas (Mexico, Brazil) Plantains (Guatemala, Colombia) These are all products with minimal-to-zero U.S. domestic cultivation, making them suitable for tariff relief with no harm to U.S. growers. Select Juice Concentrates• Especially orange, pineapple, and mixed tropical blends.• Processed imports carry higher tariff sensitivity and feed directly into packaged-goods pricing. Estimated Consumer Price Impact. (Based on tariff share of landed cost, import volumes, and retailer pass-through patterns) Coffee• Retail prices could fall 5–10%, especially on ground and whole-bean products.• Higher-end specialty imports could see sharper drops due to higher baseline tariff exposure. Bananas• Potential 3–7% decline in retail prices within weeks.• Bananas are among the most price-sensitive items in U.S. grocery baskets. Tropical Fruits (mangoes, pineapples, papayas)• Relief of 5–8% likely depending on season and shipping rates. Juice concentrates• Packaged juice prices could decline 4–6% if passthrough is consistent. How quickly will prices change? Treasury Secretary Bessent: “That will bring the prices down very quickly.” Based on historical passthrough for fruit and beverage imports:• Bananas: ~1–2 weeks• Coffee: ~4–6 weeks (warehouse + roasting lag)• Tropical fruit: ~2–3 weeks•Juices: ~4–8 weeks Grocery chains with weekly procurement cycles (e.g., Aldi, Walmart) could move faster. Key exporters who benefit• Brazil: major supplier of coffee, mango, orange juice• Colombia: coffee• Vietnam: robusta coffee• Ecuador, Guatemala, Costa Rica: bananas and pineapples•Mexico: mangoes, papayas, avocados (if added later) Expect these governments and trading associations to highlight the tariff cuts as market-opening opportunities and push for longer-term certainty. What U.S. producers want to know. While no domestic growers are directly exposed on coffee or bananas, other groups may press for guardrails:•Citrus growers (Florida, California): wary of expanding relief to juices and fruit concentrates.• Avocado producers (California): watching closely if tariff relief broadens into high-value fresh produce with partial domestic production. Fruit and vegetable lobbies may demand “strictly non-domestic-only” criteria. Big policy questions still pending• Will these be temporary emergency cuts or permanent revisions to tariff schedules?• How much tariff revenue is Treasury willing to forgo?• Will the White House follow with broader food-price measures (e.g., cold-chain, shipping-fee waivers, port adjustments)?• Does this signal a pivot away from the administration’s earlier, revenue-heavy tariff model? |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets steadied as the record-long U.S. government shutdown came to an end, with investors now looking to the return of economic data releases for clearer signals on the interest-rate outlook. U.S. equity futures were little changed early Wednesday. The Dow closed above 48,000 for the first time on Tuesday, but Dow futures were up just 0.08% early this morning. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.07%, while Nasdaq futures edged 0.09% lower.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. | Point Difference from Nov. | % Difference from Nov. |
| Dow | 48,254.82 | +326.86 | +0.68% |
| Nasdaq | 23,406.46 | -61.84 | -0.26% |
| S&P 500 | 6,850.92 | +4.31 | +0.06% |
—Disney posts mixed results as streaming gains can’t offset TV declines
Strong Disney+ growth and higher streaming income are tempered by falling ad revenue and weaker TV performance
Disney reported a mixed fiscal fourth quarter, beating expectations on adjusted earnings but missing on revenue as legacy television networks continued to drag on results. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.11, above forecasts, while revenue totaled $22.46 billion, slightly below expectations and roughly flat with last year. Net income more than doubled to $1.44 billion.
The entertainment unit fell 6% to $10.21 billion, pressured by continued declines in linear TV and a soft theatrical slate. Operating income for the TV networks dropped 21%, with advertising revenue also down and a carriage dispute keeping ABC, ESPN and other channels off YouTube TV since Oct. 31.
Streaming remained the bright spot. Disney+ added 3.8 million subscribers, reaching 131.6 million, while Hulu climbed to 64.1 million. Streaming operating income rose 39% to $352 million, boosted by price increases. Disney said this is the last quarter it will report subscriber totals and ARPU.
ESPN revenue rose 3% to $4 billion, though operating income was flat due to costs tied to its new streaming app and higher programming expenses. The experiences segment — theme parks, resorts, cruises and consumer products — grew 6% to $8.77 billion, with operating income up 13%.
| AG MARKETS |
—Grain sorghum exports to China collapse to decade lows
Tariff war throttles U.S. shipments; authors say new U.S./China deal could reopen market
U.S. grain sorghum exports to China have plunged to their weakest levels in more than ten years, a dramatic reversal for a crop that had become one of the most reliable performers in agricultural trade. According to Southern Ag Today’s Landyn K. Young and Luis A. Ribera, the United States entered 2025 with solid production — 10.2 million metric tons, led by Kansas (5.8 MMT) and Texas (2.64 MMT) — but saw its dominant export market evaporate amid escalating tariffs.
Young and Ribera note that the U.S. has long been the world’s top sorghum exporter, shipping 5.24 MMT valued at $1.38 billion in 2024, with China taking more than 83% of those volumes. That relationship collapsed this year: through July 2025, the U.S. shipped only 82,000 metric tons, compared with 3.24 MMT over the same period in 2024. Sales to China alone have fallen 97%, an unprecedented contraction.
The authors point out that Australia and Argentina have stepped in to fill the gap as Chinese buyers shift away from U.S. origin. The pattern mirrors the collapse in 2018–2019, when sorghum trade cratered during the last tariff conflict but later rebounded under the 2020 Phase One deal.
Young and Ribera add that a recent U.S./China agreement could once again revive the Chinese market, though the scale and timing of any recovery remain uncertain. For now, less than 16.4% of U.S. sorghum exports are going to all other global destinations combined, with countries such as Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and Djibouti each importing fewer than 20,000 tons annually since 2020.
The result: a strong production year but the weakest export performance in a decade — and a sorghum sector waiting for China to come back.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov 12 | Difference vs Nov 11 |
| Corn | December | 4.35 1/4 | +3 1/4 cents |
| Soybeans | January | 11.33 3/4 | +6 1/2 cents |
| Soybean Meal | December | 321.00 | +4.10 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 50.62 | -48 points |
| SRW Wheat | December | 5.36 | 0 |
| HRW Wheat | December | 5.25 1/2 | +1 3/4 cents |
| Spring Wheat | December | 5.69 3/4 | +1/4 cent |
| Cotton | December | 63.30 | -58 points |
| Live Cattle | December | 225.275 | -1.925 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | 327.475 | -1.675 |
| Lean Hogs | December | 80.625 | -1.725 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices reversed course higher Thursday after yesterday’s losses amid a report showing rising crude inventories in the U.S.. which fueled concerns that the global supply is more than sufficient to meet current fuel demand. Brent crude futures climbed 0.51% to $63.03 a barrel after dropping 3.8% in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.5% to $58.81 a barrel, extending a 4.2% decline on Wednesday.
—Oil prices tumbled Wednesday as OPEC signals market balance in 2026
Shift from deficit outlook triggers sharp selloff in crude benchmarks
Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, sliding more than 3% after a new OPEC outlook projected that global supply and demand will reach balance in 2026 — a reversal from earlier forecasts of a deficit. Brent crude dropped $2.45 to settle at $62.71 per barrel, while WTI fell $2.55 to $58.49, marking the largest one-day declines for both benchmarks in two weeks.
OPEC’s updated assessment indicated that production growth across the broader OPEC+ alliance will be sufficient to match global demand next year, fueling concern that rising output could weigh on prices into 2026. “The prospect that the market is moving toward balance clearly rattled traders,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. “Once the narrative shifts from deficit to balance, sentiment tends to turn quickly.”
The shift comes as OPEC and the International Energy Agency diverge sharply: the IEA now expects oil and gas demand to continue rising through 2050, reversing its earlier view that demand would peak this decade.
Physical market signals also added pressure, with traders citing reports of unsold cargoes, softening U.S. macroeconomic data, and weakening prompt spreads. “There are barrels looking for buyers,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital. “The front end of the curve is softening, and that’s a clear sign the market is still oversupplied.”
OPEC+ this month approved a 137,000-barrels-per-day production increase for December, followed by a pause on further hikes through the first quarter — an effort to stabilize inventories after months of rising output.
In the U.S., traders also watched developments in Washington, where the House was expected to approve a temporary funding bill through Jan, 30 to end the federal government shutdown (that happened Wednesday evening). Some analysts said reopening the government could improve demand, but capping any rally was oversupply concerns.
—Indonesia to begin ‘B50’ biodiesel road tests in December
Government weighs selective rollout amid supply and capacity constraints
Indonesia will launch road tests for its higher-blend “B50” biodiesel in early December, evaluating vehicles running on fuel with 50% palm-oil content as it weighs a phased, sector-specific rollout of the mandate next year.
Energy Ministry official Eniya Listiani Dewi said the trials will extend beyond road vehicles to include trains, ships, mining machinery and generators. The government aims to formally introduce B50 in the second half of 2026, up from this year’s 40% blend, in a push to curb reliance on imported fuel.
Dewi said officials will conduct a transparent review of B50’s technical performance, pricing and supply availability. Limited biodiesel production capacity remains the key constraint, prompting consideration of applying the mandate only to public-service-obligation sectors such as public transport and certain logistics facilities. “We had discussions on the possibility of increasing the blending to 50% for the PSO and reducing it for non-PSO sectors — we’ll examine that,” Dewi said, noting that upstream constraints make simultaneous full implementation impractical.
| HPAI/BIRD FLU |
— Spain orders nationwide poultry lockdown
Government expands containment measures as bird flu risk rises across Europe
Spain’s Agriculture Ministry on Thursday ordered an immediate nationwide lockdown of all poultry, expanding last week’s restrictions that had applied only to high-risk areas. The move comes amid a sharp rise in avian influenza cases across Europe — 139 since July — including 14 in Spain, with half detected in Castille and León.
The ministry said the new measures were prompted by “an increased risk of the disease entering Spain in the last week.” The order applies to all farms, including organic and small-scale operations, and aims to prevent contact between domestic birds and migratory species that can carry the virus.
Besides mandatory indoor confinement, Spain has banned mixing ducks and geese with other poultry, the use of untreated surface water, and the holding of bird fairs and exhibitions. The expanded lockdown is intended to curb potential transmission routes as neighboring countries also report rising outbreaks.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Snow expected to continue across Lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast/New England… …Above average temperatures across the West and Central U.S…. …Strong cyclone developing off the West Coast will bring heavy rainfall, heavy mountain snow and strong winds to portions of California through Saturday.
