U.S. Payrolls Unexpectedly Fall 

Trump rejects negotiations with Iran, demands “unconditional surrender” | More U.S. farmer aid pushed | Bessent to push more sales of soybeans to China via Trump/Xi confab

LINKS

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 27

Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 27 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March x, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— U.S. job growth turns negative in February — Payrolls fall by 92,000 amid strikes and sector weakness, signaling a softer labor market start to 2026 and raising concerns about economic momentum.

— Wage growth holds firm in February jobs data — Average hourly earnings rise 0.4% for the month and 3.8% year-over-year, suggesting continued income support for households but lingering inflation pressure.

— Trump rejects negotiations with Iran, demands “unconditional surrender” — President signals a hard-line stance as U.S. and Israeli strikes continue, raising geopolitical tensions and energy market concerns.

— U.S. signals readiness to intervene in oil markets — Washington says it will explore “all means,” including market trading, to stabilize crude prices as Middle East disruptions intensify.

— Oil prices surge as Iran conflict raises political stakes for Trump — Rising gasoline prices and inflation fears test the administration as Brent crude climbs above $89 amid Hormuz disruptions.

— White House downplays immediate SPR release — National Economic Director Kevin Hassett says no near-term plans exist to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve despite oil market volatility, but says administration has several tools to deal with situation.

— Bessent weighs China requests ahead of Trump/Xi meeting — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may press Beijing to curb Russian and Iranian oil purchases and boost U.S. imports, including soybeans, ahead of planned leader talks.

— U.S., Mexico to begin USMCA review talks March 16 — Trade officials will start bilateral discussions aimed at strengthening North American supply chains and tightening regional trade rules.

— States sue Trump administration over Section 122 tariffs — A coalition of mostly Democratic-led states challenges the administration’s use of emergency tariff authority at the Court of International Trade.

— Trump removes Noem as DHS secretary, taps Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) — Cabinet reshuffle sends Kristi Noem to a new Western Hemisphere security role and opens a Senate vacancy in Oklahoma.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Markets slide as oil spike rattles investors — The Dow opens sharply lower and heads for its worst week since October as crude climbs above $89 and Gulf supply risks grow.

— Retail sales slip slightly in January — Consumer spending dips 0.2% amid declines in autos, gasoline and apparel, though core retail sales suggest continued GDP support.

— Costco signals potential price cuts if tariff refunds occur — The retailer says any tariff reimbursements would be passed on to customers as lower prices.

AG MARKETS

— Global grain outlook shows mixed signals — Wheat production may fall in 2026 while corn markets stay stable and soybean prices strengthen amid weather and geopolitical risks.

— Cotton AWP eases slightly — The Adjusted World Price drops to 51.44¢/lb, raising the loan deficiency payment to 0.56¢.

— Agriculture markets yesterday — Corn, soybeans and wheat futures rise while cattle and hog markets show mixed moves.

FARM POLICY

— Lawmakers consider tying farm aid to Iran war funding — Republicans weigh attaching $15 — $17 billion in agricultural assistance and disaster aid to a potential $50B+ military supplemental.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil posts biggest weekly surge since 2020 — Brent jumps about 22% and WTI nearly 27% as the Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens global supply.

— Hormuz disruption stalls global energy flows — Tanker traffic halts and supply risks intensify, with analysts warning millions of barrels per day could be removed from the market.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) ends re-election bid — The congressman exits his runoff race following scandal and pressure from GOP leadership.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— UN food price index rises in February — Gains in wheat, vegetable oil and meat prices push the index higher despite declines in dairy and sugar.

— Organic food sales outpace broader grocery market — U.S. organic sales reach $76.6 billion in 2025, growing faster than the overall food sector.

WEATHER

— Storm system to impact Plains and Midwest — Severe storms, flash flooding and snow are expected as above-average temperatures persist across much of the eastern U.S. Friday into Saturday.

TOP STORIES—U.S. job growth turns negative in FebruaryPayrolls decline by 92,000 as strikes and sector weakness weigh on labor market The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February 2026, marking the largest monthly decline in four months and sharply missing expectations for a 59,000-job gain. The drop followed a downwardly revised increase of 126,000 jobs in January, signaling a softer start to the year for the labor market.The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% in January. A large share of the February decline stemmed from strike-related disruptions in the health care sector, where employment fell by 28,000 jobs. Offices of physicians lost 37,000 positions, though hospitals added 12,000 jobs, partially offsetting the broader decline. Several other sectors also recorded losses. Information services employment fell by 11,000, while federal government payrolls declined by 10,000 (since October 2024, U.S. gov’t employment has fallen 330,000).  Employment also dropped in transportation and warehousing (-11,000) and manufacturing (-12,000), highlighting weakness across multiple industries. Revisions to prior months further dampened the labor picture. December payrolls were revised down by 65,000, shifting from a previously reported gain of 48,000 to a net loss of 17,000 jobs. January’s estimate was also trimmed slightly, from 130,000 to 126,000. Combined, the revisions lowered employment totals for December and January by 69,000 jobs. Despite the volatility, payroll growth overall changed little on net during 2025, suggesting the labor market has been largely stagnant over the past year. The February decline may heighten concerns about broader economic momentum heading into the spring, particularly as markets continue to watch wage growth and inflation pressures closely.—Wage growth holds firm in February jobs dataAverage hourly earnings rise 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year ago, slightly exceeding expectations Average hourly earnings for all employees on U.S. private nonfarm payrolls increased by 15 cents, or 0.4%, in February, reaching $37.32, according to the latest labor market data. The gain matched January’s monthly pace and came in slightly above economists’ expectations for a 0.3% increase. Wage growth also strengthened modestly on an annual basis. Average hourly earnings rose 3.8% over the past 12 months, edging up from 3.7% year-over-year growth in January and surpassing market forecasts for a 3.7% increase. For private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, wages rose 9 cents, or 0.3%, in February, bringing the average hourly pay for that group to $32.03. The data suggest wage growth remains steady despite broader economic uncertainty, providing continued income support for households but also reinforcing concerns among policymakers that persistent wage gains could keep pressure on inflation.—Trump rejects negotiations with Iran, demands “unconditional surrender”President signals hard-line stance as U.S. and Israeli strikes continue President Donald Trump said Friday that the United States will not negotiate with Iran to end the ongoing conflict, declaring that Tehran must accept “unconditional surrender” as U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue. In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” He added that once Iran capitulates, the U.S. and its allies would help select a “GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s)” for the country. The statement underscores the administration’s increasingly hard-line position as the conflict escalates and as markets react to the potential for prolonged instability in the Middle East. Trump’s message appears to rule out diplomatic talks in the near term and suggests the White House is seeking a decisive outcome rather than a negotiated ceasefire. The comment comes as U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iranian targets continue and concerns grow about broader regional spillovers — including disruptions to energy markets and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The president’s remarks also arrive amid mounting economic pressure tied to the conflict. Oil prices have surged sharply in recent days and U.S. gasoline prices have jumped, raising concerns about inflation and political risks ahead of the midterm elections. (See items below for details.) By framing the conflict in terms of total capitulation, Trump’s statement signals that the administration may pursue a strategy aimed at forcing regime change or compelling Iran’s leadership to accept sweeping concessions. However, such a stance could also harden Tehran’s resistance and complicate any future diplomatic off-ramp.—U.S. signals readiness to intervene in oil marketsStatement says Washington will explore “all means” to control crude prices, including direct market trading The U.S. government said Thursday it is prepared to explore “all means” to control crude oil markets — including trading directly on the market — as energy prices surge amid supply disruptions in the Middle East. (See next item for more.) The brief statement signaled that officials are considering more active intervention tools to stabilize prices and protect the domestic economy if volatility continues. While the administration did not provide details on potential mechanisms, options could include strategic purchases or sales tied to government reserves or coordinated market activity intended to dampen price spikes. Despite the strong language, financial markets showed little immediate reaction. Thursday night trading indicated only limited impact from the announcement, suggesting traders are waiting for more concrete policy details before adjusting positions. The muted response also reflects the broader market focus on physical supply risks. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely disrupted and concerns growing over possible production shut-ins across the Gulf, traders remain primarily focused on whether global crude flows will tighten further in the coming days. —Oil prices surge as Iran conflict raises political stakes for TrumpRising gasoline and diesel costs, inflation fears, and potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are testing the economic and political limits of the administration’s Middle East strategy The escalating conflict with Iran is beginning to ripple through global energy markets and U.S. politics, raising a key question: could rising oil prices push President Donald Trump to seek a quicker resolution to the war? So far, financial markets have remained relatively resilient. The S&P 500 has been volatile but is still only about 2% below its record high, suggesting investors have not yet fully priced in a prolonged disruption. The impact is being felt more sharply by households and businesses, however. Fuel costs and inflation concerns mount. Energy prices have moved rapidly higher as shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz threaten global supply. Brent crude climbed above $89 per barrel Friday morning, with analysts warning prices could reach $100 per barrel or higher if exports from the Gulf remain blocked. U.S. consumers are already seeing the effects:• Average gasoline prices rose 11% in one week. U.S. gasoline pump prices advanced to the highest level at any time under Trump’s presidency, with the retail price of gasoline rising to $3.32 gallon yesterday.• Jet fuel prices have surged, raising concerns for airlines and shipping costs. • In Iowa, price at local truck stop for diesel was at $4.90 last night… was below $4 last week.• The 10-year Treasury yield has risen nearly a quarter-percentage point since the conflict began, reflecting mounting inflation fears and pushing up borrowing costs tied to mortgages and business loans. The Strait of Hormuz, bordering Iran, normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, making it one of the most critical energy chokepoints globally. According to the Joint Maritime Information Center, shipping traffic through the waterway has effectively stalled amid security risks. Trump signals resolve despite price pressures. Despite the economic fallout, Trump has signaled he is not backing down from the conflict. During the campaign and in his recent State of the Union address, the president highlighted lower gasoline prices as evidence of economic success. But his tone has shifted since authorizing strikes on Iran. “Gasoline prices will drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise,” Trump told Reuters. “This is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit.” That stance suggests the administration views the geopolitical stakes — including regional security and deterrence — as outweighing short-term price increases. Administration weighs options to stabilize oil markets. The White House is nonetheless exploring ways to prevent energy markets from spiraling if the conflict persists. Options under discussion include:• Naval escorts for oil tankers to reopen shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.• Government-backed insurance guarantees to encourage shipping companies to resume operations.•Emergency measures to stabilize markets if prices spike sharply. Reuters reported that the Treasury Department examined the possibility of direct intervention in oil futures markets to cap prices. However, officials later indicated the administration is not pursuing that option for now, according to Bloomberg. Market participants remain skeptical that direct intervention would work. Global supply politics also in play. The Trump administration appears to be loosening sanctions enforcement in limited cases to keep oil flowing globally. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. would grant India a 30-day waiver to purchase certain Russian oil shipments, a move designed to prevent a sudden supply crunch. Midterm political risks. The biggest political risk may come from consumer sentiment rather than financial markets. Energy costs tend to feed quickly into inflation expectations and voter perceptions of economic stability. With midterm elections only months away, sustained gasoline increases could become a major political vulnerability for the administration — especially after Trump repeatedly highlighted low fuel prices as a core economic achievement. For now, however, the White House appears willing to accept higher oil prices as a temporary cost of the conflict — betting that markets and voters will ultimately focus on the strategic outcome once the fighting subsides.  White House Downplays Immediate SPR ReleaseHassett says military progress could ease oil market fears as prices surge amid Middle East conflict The White House signaled Friday that a release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is not currently under consideration, even as global oil markets remain volatile following the escalating conflict with Iran. National Economic Director Kevin Hassett said there has been no internal discussion suggesting the administration plans to tap emergency crude supplies in the near term. “There has been no discussion that suggests that anytime soon that would happen,” Hassett said when asked whether the U.S. might release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Hassett indicated the administration expects geopolitical pressures currently driving oil markets higher to ease as military operations progress. “Our expectation is, given the extreme success of our military, that the things that oil markets are concerned about will be less and less relevant relatively soon,” he said. The comments come as energy markets react sharply to the disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global chokepoint for oil exports. Prices have surged this week, fueling concerns about higher gasoline costs and renewed inflation pressures. A release from the SPR is one of the tools available to the U.S. government to stabilize oil markets during supply shocks. However, Hassett’s remarks suggest the administration believes market pressures could diminish without resorting to emergency stockpile sales. The reserve has been used in the past during major supply disruptions, but the White House appears to be holding that option in reserve while monitoring developments in the Middle East and global shipping lanes. Of note: The Trump administration has “many, many” tools to address the surge in oil prices, Hassett said on Bloomberg TV. “We’ve got a whole flow chart of tools to use,” he added. “But we’re also very optimistic that we’re going to be able to get this near-term problem resolved relatively quickly,” he concluded.  —Bessent weighs China requests ahead of Trump/Xi meetingTreasury chief expected to press Beijing on energy purchases, agricultural imports, and rare-earth exports as talks begin to prepare for a potential summit  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is weighing a series of requests for China to act on key trade and geopolitical issues when he meets Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng next week in Paris — discussions aimed largely at laying the groundwork for a planned meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to people familiar with the talks cited by the Wall Street Journal. Among the ideas Bessent is considering raising is a push for China to scale back oil purchases from Russia and Iran and instead increase imports of U.S. energy supplies, a move that would align Beijing more closely with Western pressure campaigns against Moscow and Tehran while providing a boost to U.S. exports. The Treasury chief has also discussed pressing China to expand purchases of U.S. goods, particularly soybeans and Boeing aircraft, in what could resemble earlier commitments made during past trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Another issue under discussion is China’s export controls on rare earth minerals, which the U.S. and its allies view as a strategic vulnerability given China’s dominance in the sector. U.S. officials are exploring whether Beijing might ease restrictions that affect global supply chains for advanced manufacturing, electronics, and defense technologies. Despite those potential asks, the primary purpose of the Paris meeting is diplomatic groundwork — setting the agenda and stabilizing relations ahead of a potential Trump/Xi summit in China. Officials see the talks as an opportunity to identify areas where progress might be possible before the leaders meet face-to-face. The discussions come as the two countries remain locked in broader trade tensions, including U.S. tariff actions and supply-chain disputes. Agricultural trade — particularly soybean purchases — is expected to be a central focus given its economic importance to U.S. farmers and its historical role in past U.S./China trade agreements. —U.S., Mexico to begin USMCA review talks March 16Initial bilateral discussions will focus on strengthening North American supply chains and tightening regional trade rules U.S. and Mexican trade officials will meet March 16 for the first round of bilateral discussions ahead of the formal review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced Thursday. USTR Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard have directed negotiators to begin scoping talks on measures aimed at ensuring the benefits of the agreement accrue primarily to North American partners. The discussions will focus on reducing reliance on imports from outside the region, strengthening rules of origin, and improving the security of regional supply chains. According to USTR, negotiators from both countries are expected to continue meeting regularly following the initial session. Greer said last month that the USMCA review process will proceed primarily through bilateral negotiations, with trilateral talks involving Canada occurring only when issues overlap — such as rules of origin, external tariffs, or broader trade policy alignment. In announcing the talks, USTR described Mexico as “pragmatic” in its approach to trade discussions while reiterating criticism of Canadian trade barriers. —States sue Trump administration over Section 122 tariffsCoalition of mostly Democratic-led states argues emergency tariff authority is being misapplied and encroaches on congressional powers A coalition of roughly two dozen states — most led by Democratic governors — has filed a lawsuit at the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) challenging the Trump administration’s decision to impose global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The lawsuit argues the administration is misusing a rarely invoked emergency provision of U.S. trade law that was designed to address balance-of-payments crises under a fixed exchange rate system, such as the gold standard that the United States abandoned decades ago. States argue legal authority is outdated. According to the complaint, Section 122 was intended as a temporary safeguard if the U.S. faced a balance-of-payments deficit tied to a fixed currency regime. The states contend that because the United States now operates under a floating exchange rate system, the economic condition that the statute was designed to address no longer exists. As a result, the lawsuit claims the administration’s tariff action stretches the law beyond its intended scope and violates statutory limits set by Congress. The states also argue the tariff move improperly shifts trade authority from Congress to the executive branch. The suit maintains that the constitutional authority to impose tariffs rests with Congress, and that the White House cannot broadly impose duties without clear statutory justification. Tariffs designed as a temporary bridge. Under Section 122, tariffs can only remain in effect for 150 days without congressional action. The Trump administration has framed the measure as a temporary bridge while pursuing more permanent trade restrictions through other statutes. Administration officials have said ongoing investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 are expected to conclude before the Section 122 tariffs expire. Those authorities would allow the administration to impose longer-term tariffs tied to unfair trade practices or national security concerns. Latest front in tariff legal battles. The lawsuit marks the latest legal challenge to the administration’s tariff strategy following the earlier court fight over the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose duties — a dispute that has already produced rulings forcing the government to refund certain tariffs. The new case could become another major test of how far the executive branch can stretch existing trade authorities, particularly as the administration seeks to restore broad tariff levels following the court’s rejection of the earlier IEEPA-based duties. —Trump removes Noem as DHS secretary, taps Sen. Markwayne Mullin as successorCabinet reshuffle sends Noem to new Western Hemisphere security role while opening a Senate vacancy in Oklahoma President Donald Trump removed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem from her post Thursday and said he intends to nominate Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Trump said on social media that Noem will take on a new role as “Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas,” a security initiative focused on the Western Hemisphere that the administration plans to unveil Saturday in Doral, Florida. The move shifts attention to the Senate seat Mullin would vacate if confirmed. Under Oklahoma law, a replacement must be appointed to serve the remainder of Mullin’s term but cannot run for re-election in November, setting up a competitive race for the seat later this year. Two House Republicans — Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) and Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) — are among the names being discussed as potential candidates to run for the seat in the November election. Mullin is expected to face relatively little resistance in the Senate confirmation process, with Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) already signaling support for the nomination. However, other Democrats indicated that the administration’s immigration policies — not just the leadership — will remain a central focus of scrutiny as the confirmation process unfolds.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Markets today: Dow opened nearly 700 points lower and is currently around 900 points lower, with the index heading for worst week since October as U.S. oil tops $89. Quatar’s energy minister warned that Gulf states could be forced to fully halt oil production within weeks, a move that could send oil to $150/bbl. Gold and silver futures were little changed ahead of the Employment report, with gold around $5,077 per troy ounce and silver around $82 per troy ounce.

In Asia, Japan +0.6%. Hong Kong +1.7%. China +0.4%. India -1.4%.
 

In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.2%.

—Equities yesterday: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  March 5	Point Difference  from March 4	% Difference  from March 4
Dow	47,954.74	– 784.67	-1.61%
Nasdaq	22,748.99	-58.50	-0.26%
S&P 500	6,830.71	-38.79	-0.56%

—Retail sales slip slightly in January

Auto, gasoline, and apparel declines offset gains in furniture, building materials, and online spending

U.S. retail sales edged down 0.2% in January 2026, marking the first monthly decline since October and following a flat reading in December. The drop was broadly in line with expectations for a 0.3% decrease and reflects weaker spending in several key consumer categories.

The largest declines came from motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.9%), gasoline stations (-2.9%), clothing and accessories stores (-1.7%), and electronics and appliance retailers (-0.6%). These sectors drove the overall pullback in retail activity.

However, spending held up in other areas. Furniture sales rose 0.7%, building materials and garden equipment increased 0.6%, miscellaneous retailers climbed 2%, and non-store retailers — largely online sales — advanced 1.9%.

Of note: Despite the headline decline, the retail control group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations and excludes volatile categories such as autos, gasoline, and building materials, rose 0.3% in January, suggesting consumer spending could still contribute positively to first-quarter economic growth.

On a year-over-year basis, retail sales were up 3.2%, indicating that overall consumer demand remains resilient even as monthly spending fluctuates.

—Costco signals potential price cuts if tariff refunds are issued

CEO says savings from possible government reimbursements would be passed on to shoppers

Costco Wholesale said it could lower prices for customers if the company ultimately receives refunds for tariffs it previously paid to the U.S. government, signaling how ongoing trade policy disputes could translate into direct consumer benefits.

The retailer reported stronger-than-expected results for the holiday quarter, underscoring continued demand for its bulk-discount model even as price pressures remain elevated across many imported goods.

Costco said comparable same-store sales increased 6.7% during the quarter, while net income rose nearly 14% to $2.04 billion, reflecting steady foot traffic and strong spending by members during the holiday season. The performance exceeded Wall Street expectations and reinforced the company’s reputation for maintaining value pricing even during periods of inflation and supply-chain volatility.

Executives noted that Costco’s limited-markup pricing strategy — typically capping markups around 14% — has helped sustain consumer loyalty despite higher costs tied to tariffs, freight, and commodities.

Tariff refunds could translate into lower prices. During a post-earnings call with reporters, CEO Ron Vachris said the retailer would pass along any tariff reimbursements to shoppers. Vachris said if the company ultimately receives refunds for duties it previously paid, Costco would lower prices and improve value for customers rather than retain the savings.

However, he cautioned that the situation remains uncertain. “It’s not clear yet if or when any refunds would be made,” Vachris said, noting that the outcome will depend on ongoing legal and administrative decisions surrounding tariff collections.

Linked to broader tariff litigation. The comments come as companies and importers across the U.S. are watching several court cases and administrative rulings that could determine whether previously collected tariffs must be refunded. A recent ruling by the Court of International Trade ordering the re-liquidation of certain imports subject to overturned tariffs has raised the possibility that billions of dollars in duties could be returned to businesses.

For major import-dependent retailers like Costco, any refunds could directly affect pricing decisions across categories such as consumer goods, electronics, and household items. If reimbursements occur, Costco’s commitment to pass savings on to customers could help reinforce its price-leadership strategy at a time when retailers are competing intensely for cost-conscious shoppers.

AG MARKETS

— Global grain markets outlook shows mixed signals as wheat output expected to decline in 2026

AMIS Market Monitor highlights tightening wheat production prospects, stable corn markets, and stronger soybean prices amid weather risks and geopolitical tensions

The March 2026 AMIS Market Monitor from the Agricultural Market Information System indicates a mixed outlook for global grain markets. Wheat production is expected to decline in 2026 due to reduced plantings and a return to more typical yields, while corn markets remain broadly stable and soybean prices have firmed amid tighter U.S. supplies and stronger South American demand. Escalating geopolitical tensions and higher energy and fertilizer costs are also emerging as risks to agricultural production and trade.

Wheat production expected to decline

Early forecasts suggest global wheat production could fall about 3 % in 2026 to roughly 810 million metric tons, reflecting smaller planted areas and a shift back to average yields after unusually strong harvests in 2025. Lower prices have discouraged sowings in several regions, including the European Union and the United States.

In the United States, wheat output is expected to remain above the five-year average but decline from last year because of reduced plantings and slightly lower yields. Meanwhile, Russian wheat area is projected to shrink as farmers shift acreage toward more profitable oilseeds. By contrast, India could see near-record wheat production due to strong government incentives encouraging expanded planting.

Weather conditions remain an important wildcard. Cold spells in parts of Europe and drought concerns in North America pose potential risks to yields later in the season.

Global supply and demand trends

The report’s global balance tables show relatively comfortable supplies across major crops despite regional production changes.

• Wheat: Production revisions for 2025 were only marginally higher, with utilization largely unchanged. Global stocks are projected to rise slightly due to upward revisions in reserves in the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine. 
• Corn: Global output estimates were raised slightly due to larger crops in Paraguay and modest increases in the European Union and South Africa. Feed demand revisions also supported utilization forecasts. 
• Rice: Production forecasts were upgraded because of larger planted areas in Indonesia and Thailand, while global consumption is expected to expand by about 2.7 % year-over-year. 
• Soybeans: Global production estimates are largely unchanged as improved crop prospects in Brazil offset reduced expectations for Argentina following dry weather. Global soybean stocks are still projected to reach record levels. 

Crop conditions and weather outlook

According to the global crop monitor maps, most major producing regions currently show favorable conditions, although several localized issues persist:

• Winter wheat in parts of eastern Europe faces potential damage from cold weather and limited snow cover.
• U.S. winter wheat areas in the Great Plains remain under pressure from drought and earlier cold exposure.
• Argentine corn yields have been uneven due to heat and dryness.
• Soybean harvest conditions in Brazil remain generally favorable, though dry weather in southern regions has created localized stress. 

Climate forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions are weakening, with a strong chance of neutral conditions by spring and a roughly 59% probability of El Niño developing later in 2026, which could influence global crop yields.

International prices and market sentiment

Grain prices showed mixed movements in February:

• Wheat prices strengthened modestly due to weather concerns and logistical issues in key exporting regions.
• Corn prices remained largely stable, supported by demand for U.S. supplies but offset by strong South American competition.
• Rice prices edged lower amid weaker demand and improving Asian supplies.
• Soybean prices rose about 6% month-to-month as tighter U.S. supplies and stronger Argentine markets supported global values. 

Futures markets also reflected cautious optimism. Wheat, corn, and soybean futures moved modestly higher but remain rangebound due to ample global supply and strong exporter competition.
 

Policy developments shaping markets

Several policy moves could influence global grain trade:

• The United States introduced a 10% global import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act, following a Supreme Court ruling limiting tariff authority under emergency powers.
• India eased wheat export restrictions and lifted stock limits for traders.
• The European Union imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese sweetcorn imports.
• Indonesia converted export restrictions on used cooking oil and palm-oil byproducts into a full export ban to secure biodiesel feedstocks. 

Bottom Line: Overall, the AMIS report suggests global grain markets remain well supplied but increasingly sensitive to weather and geopolitical risks. Wheat production is expected to fall modestly in 2026 due to reduced plantings, while corn and rice markets remain relatively stable. Soybeans have gained strength amid tighter supplies and uncertain trade dynamics, highlighting how policy shifts and climate conditions could shape agricultural markets in the months ahead.

—Cotton AWP eases. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 51.44 cents per pound, effective today (March 6), down from 51.84 cents per pound the prior week. This results in an LDP of just 0.56 cent per pound, up from 0.16 cent per pound the prior week.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price March 5	Change from March 4
Corn	May	$4.53 1/2	+9 3/4¢
Soybeans	May	$11.79 1/4	+9 3/4¢
Soybean Meal	May	$309.30	-$0.60
Soybean Oil	May	65.70	+211 points
SRW Wheat	May	$5.83 3/4	+15 1/2¢
HRW Wheat	May	$5.92 1/2	+20¢
Spring Wheat	May	$6.19 1/2	+10 1/4¢
Cotton	May	64.04¢	-12 points
Live Cattle	April	$238.525	+17 1/2¢
Feeder Cattle	March	$362.60	-$1.325
Lean Hogs	April	$95.675	-$1.40

FARM POLICY

—Republicans consider linking farm aid and disaster relief to Iran war funding

Lawmakers weigh adding $15-$17 billion in farm assistance and wildfire disaster aid to a potential $50B+ military supplemental tied to the conflict with Iran.

Republican lawmakers are weighing whether to attach major domestic aid provisions — including $15 to $17 billion in farm assistance and wildfire disaster relief — to an emergency military funding package expected from President Donald Trump to address the escalating conflict with Iran.

Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), chair of the Senate Appropriations Agriculture Subcommittee, said combining these priorities could help build enough bipartisan support to move a supplemental spending bill through Congress. “I think we get critical mass for a supplemental because I think they want funding for the California fires, we want funding for agriculture,” Hoeven said.

Hoeven and Senate Ag Committee Chair Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) have proposed allocating additional farm aid, on top of the Trump administration’s previously announced $12 billion assistance package. Boozman said pairing the farm aid with emergency defense funding may be the most viable legislative path forward.

Rising production costs linked to the war are also adding urgency. Lawmakers warn that disruptions to global energy and fertilizer markets could increase prices for critical farm inputs such as oil, phosphorus and nitrogen. Boozman said the conflict provides “just another reason” for Congress to pass both a farm aid package and a new farm bill this year.

Some lawmakers are also pushing to include energy policy provisions. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) suggested lawmakers should attach year-round E15 ethanol sales, though he said he has only heard “rumors” about how the supplemental might take shape.

Still, significant hurdles remain. Senior Republican aides say no final decisions have been made, and House GOP leaders are wary of expanding the package too far, particularly as the military portion alone could reach $50 billion or more. That concern reflects broader anxiety on Capitol Hill that loading the emergency war request with additional domestic spending could jeopardize passage in the closely divided Congress.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Friday: Oil posts biggest weekly surge since 2020 on Hormuz disruption

Middle East conflict halts key shipping route, raising fears of further price spikes

Crude oil prices are headed for their largest weekly gain since the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic as conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude has surged nearly 22% this week, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has climbed about 27%, marking the biggest weekly increases for both benchmarks since 2020. On Friday, Brent rose to about $88 per barrel and WTI to roughly $85, the highest levels since 2024.

The rally began after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries around one-fifth of global oil supply.

Qatar’s energy minister warned Gulf exporters could halt shipments if the conflict escalates, potentially pushing oil toward $150 per barrel.

Despite the sharp jump, analysts note prices remain below the $100-plus levels seen after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, though markets warn a prolonged closure of the strait could trigger a much larger supply shock.

—Thursday: Oil prices surge as Hormuz disruptions stall global energy flows

Supply risks mount as tanker traffic halts, Middle East output faces pressure

Global oil prices surged sharply as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively stalled, raising fears of significant supply disruptions across the energy market.

Brent crude settled up $4.01, or 4.93%, at $85.41 per barrel, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $6.35, 8.51%, to $81.01 per barrel as traders priced in escalating risks to global supply.

The rally comes as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil chokepoint — has nearly halted amid widening regional conflict and tanker attacks. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally moves through the passage, making any disruption immediately consequential for energy markets.

Ship-tracking data indicate approximately 300 tankers are now stranded inside the strait, with little movement in or out of the corridor. The situation has also heightened risks for shipping infrastructure across the Gulf. The Bahamas-flagged crude tanker Sonangol Namibe reported hull damage after an explosion near Iraq’s Khor al Zubair port, underscoring growing security threats for vessels operating in the region.

Analysts warn that the market impact could intensify quickly if the disruption continues. JPMorgan estimates that crude exports from Iraq and Kuwait could begin shutting down within days if export routes remain blocked. By the eighth day of the conflict, as much as 3.3 million barrels per day of supply could be removed from the global market. Iraq has already curtailed output by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day because limited storage capacity and export bottlenecks prevent additional production from being moved to market.

Energy infrastructure elsewhere in the region is also under strain. Qatar declared force majeure on liquefied natural gas exports, with industry sources indicating that restoring normal production and shipments could take at least a month.

The tightening supply outlook is already pushing refined product prices higher. U.S. diesel futures jumped roughly 10% during the trading session, briefly exceeding $3.60 per gallon as traders priced in the loss of Middle Eastern exports along with refinery disruptions in parts of the region, China, and India.

With the conflict widening and energy shipments constrained, analysts expect oil markets to remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of regional production disruptions in the days ahead.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Gonzales ends re-election bid amid scandal

Texas Republican withdraws from primary runoff as House Ethics probe and GOP pressure mount

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) announced Thursday he will not seek re-election, stepping out of his primary runoff after admitting to an affair with a congressional aide and facing mounting pressure from Republican leaders.

Gonzales finished second in the GOP primary behind challenger Brandon Herrera, triggering a runoff. With Gonzales withdrawing, Herrera is expected to become the Republican nominee for Texas’ 23rd District.

The controversy intensified after explicit text messages surfaced and the U.S. House Committee on Ethics opened a probe into potential sexual misconduct and preferential treatment toward the aide.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and other GOP lawmakers had urged Gonzales to leave the race. Gonzales said he will remain in Congress through the end of his term as Republicans maintain a narrow House majority supporting President Donald Trump’s agenda.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

—UN food price index rises in February

Higher wheat, vegetable oil and meat prices offset declines in dairy and sugar

The United Nations Food Price Index (FPI) increased for the first time in five months in February, rising to 125.3 as gains in wheat, vegetable oils and meat prices outweighed declines in dairy and sugar. The index — which tracks a basket of globally traded food commodities — rose 0.9% from January but remained about 1% below its level a year earlier.

Wheat prices moved higher during February amid cold weather in Europe and the U.S., along with logistical challenges affecting exports from Russia and the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices climbed 3.3% for the month and reached their highest level since June 2022. Palm oil prices strengthened due to increased global import demand and reduced output in Southeast Asia, while global soy oil prices rose on expectations of supportive biofuel policy measures in the United States.

The meat price index increased 0.8% in February, driven largely by firmer beef and sheep meat prices.

By contrast, dairy prices declined, with the index falling 1.2%, while sugar prices dropped 4.1% from January and are now down 27.3% from a year ago amid expectations of ample global supplies.

Despite the monthly increase, the overall food price index remains nearly 22% below the peak recorded in March 2022.

—Organic food sales continue to outpace broader grocery market

Certified organic products reach $76.6 billion in 2025 as consumer demand for health-focused foods drives growth

Sales of certified organic products in the U.S. continued their steady rise in 2025, reaching $76.6 billion, a 6.8% increase from the previous year, according to the Organic Trade Association (OTA).

OTA Co-CEO Tom Chapman said organic products have now outpaced the growth of the broader food market for three consecutive years, reflecting continued consumer demand for foods perceived as healthier and more environmentally sustainable. “For the third year in a row, organic has grown faster than the total market, which indicates shoppers are prioritizing their health and the planet, and are willing to pay a premium for it,” Chapman said.

Food category leads growth. Organic food sales totaled $70.1 billion in 2025, up 6.9% from 2024, compared with 2.3% growth for the overall food market. Organic products now account for 6.1% of total U.S. food sales.

Fresh produce remained the largest organic category and the primary entry point for consumers, continuing to drive much of the sector’s expansion.

Grocery market context. The growth comes within a massive U.S. grocery market:

• Total U.S. grocery sales: about $920.3 billion in 2025

• Average household grocery spending: roughly $170 per week

• Online grocery sales: $327.7 billion

Looking ahead, the Food Marketing Institute projects that total U.S. grocery spending will surpass $1 trillion by 2028, suggesting further room for organic products to expand their share of the market.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible for portions of the Plains to Midwest Friday into Saturday… …Moderate to heavy snow for the central Rockies with a wintry mix stretching from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest… …Well above average conditions continue from the Great Plains through much of the eastern U.S. Friday-Saturday.