U.S. Trade Strategy Enters a New Phase — Greer Outlines ‘Economic Security’ Doctrine at Hudson Institute
USTR frames manufacturing revival, China stability, WTO decline, and allied coordination as pillars of Trump-era trade policy
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer used a wide-ranging address at the Hudson Institute to lay out what amounts to the operational blueprint of the Trump administration’s trade doctrine — one centered on reshoring manufacturing, confronting structural imbalances with China, and redefining global trade institutions around economic security rather than liberalization.
Drawing from remarks delivered April 7, Greer argued that U.S. trade policy has “turned the corner” toward measurable gains in domestic industry, while signaling a willingness to bypass or reshape legacy institutions like the World Trade Organization in favor of smaller, aligned coalitions.
Manufacturing revival becomes core metric of trade success
Greer emphasized that the administration’s trade policy is only one component of a broader industrial strategy — alongside tax, energy, and permitting reforms — aimed at reversing decades of manufacturing decline.
He pointed to a series of indicators suggesting momentum has shifted:
- Rising manufacturing productivity, wages, and overtime hours
- Increased factory construction and capital investment
- Positive manufacturing job growth after a prolonged downturn
- Record U.S. exports exceeding $300 billion in both January and February
“These indicators have been going exactly the right direction,” Greer said, adding that the long-awaited rebound in manufacturing employment marked a key inflection point.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks — particularly the ongoing Iran conflict — remain a near-term wildcard through energy price volatility, though Greer suggested U.S. domestic supply buffers the impact.
China policy: Stability with pressure, not confrontation
Greer characterized current U.S.-China economic relations as “stable,” but underscored that stability is being maintained through sustained pressure — particularly tariffs and supply chain controls.
Key elements of the administration’s China strategy include:
- Maintaining elevated tariffs on advanced and industrial goods
- Reducing the bilateral trade deficit, which fell roughly 30% last year
- Ensuring continued access to critical inputs such as rare earth minerals
- Exploring a formal “U.S.-China Board of Trade” to manage non-sensitive trade flows
The proposed board would serve as a government-to-government mechanism to define acceptable trade categories and stabilize economic engagement without expanding broader integration.
Meanwhile, Greer made clear that national and economic security considerations remain paramount, particularly in areas like critical minerals and pharmaceuticals.
Critical minerals strategy targets China’s pricing power
A major focus of Greer’s remarks was the administration’s push to build resilient supply chains for critical minerals — a sector long dominated by China.
He outlined a multi-pronged approach:
- Bilateral cooperation with partners like Mexico to expand supply
- Development of a “price floor” mechanism to prevent market dumping
- Expansion of domestic mining, processing, and refining capacity
- Exploration of plurilateral agreements among allied countries
The pricing mechanism is designed to prevent a repeat of past cycles where China flooded global markets with low-cost supply, undermining emerging Western production capacity.
Greer framed this as essential to ensuring long-term economic viability for U.S. and allied producers.
WTO faces declining relevance as U.S. pivots to smaller coalitions
Greer delivered one of his sharpest critiques toward the WTO, arguing the institution has failed to adapt to modern trade realities.
The collapse of negotiations at the WTO ministerial meeting — including the inability to extend a long-standing moratorium on digital tariffs — was cited as evidence of dysfunction.
“If the WTO fails to adjust… the consequence is it becomes even less relevant than it already is,” he said.
Instead, the administration is shifting toward:
- Plurilateral agreements among “like-minded” economies
- Trade deals incorporating economic security provisions
- Smaller negotiating groups reminiscent of early GATT frameworks
Greer suggested that including large non-market economies in a consensus-based system has made meaningful reform nearly impossible.
U.S./EU tensions rise over digital trade and regulatory pressure
Despite areas of alignment with Europe on issues like overcapacity and WTO reform, Greer highlighted growing friction over digital trade policy.
He sharply criticized EU regulatory frameworks such as the Digital Markets Act, arguing they disproportionately target U.S. technology firms under the guise of neutrality.
“They just make a prima facie decision that bigger is bad,” Greer said, warning that continued discrimination could trigger U.S. retaliatory measures.
Potential U.S. responses include:
- Section 301 investigations and tariffs
- Restrictions on European service providers in the U.S.
- Expanded enforcement against discriminatory regulations
Meanwhile, ongoing negotiations aim to prevent escalation, though Greer described the situation as “fragile.”
USMCA review signals potential restructuring, not renewal
Looking ahead to the July 1 USMCA review deadline, Greer indicated the administration is unlikely to simply renew the agreement without modifications.
Key concerns include:
- Rising U.S. imports of autos, steel, and aluminum from Mexico and Canada
- Perceived failures to adhere to informal export limits
- Persistent trade imbalances across North America
Greer suggested the administration may pursue separate bilateral “protocols” with Canada and Mexico layered onto the existing framework, rather than a wholesale renegotiation.
The review process could trigger a longer renegotiation window if immediate changes are not agreed upon.
Overcapacity and tariffs anchor broader rebalancing strategy
A central theme throughout the speech was “rebalancing” global trade — particularly addressing structural overcapacity, largely attributed to China.
Greer pointed to:
- Ongoing Section 301 investigations into overcapacity
- Tariffs as a primary tool to control import surges
- Reciprocal trade agreements that combine tariffs with market access commitments
He acknowledged that the U.S. may initially act alone but expects allies to gradually align as the scale of the issue becomes clearer. “We might just be up there on top alone,” he said, “but we’re a big market.”
Bottom Line: Trade policy shifts from liberalization to strategic control
Greer’s remarks reinforce a fundamental shift in U.S. trade policy — away from traditional free-trade frameworks and toward a model defined by:
- Industrial policy and domestic production
- Economic security and supply chain resilience
- Strategic competition with China
- Selective, alliance-based trade architecture
Meanwhile, institutions like the WTO appear increasingly sidelined, as the administration prioritizes flexibility and leverage over multilateral consensus.
The result is a more interventionist, security-driven trade regime — one that seeks not just to expand trade, but to reshape its structure in favor of U.S. strategic interests.
