USDA Announces Big China Purchases of U.S. Soybeans
Industry signals China continues to buy U.S. soybeans | More on SDRP 2 | Mexican border reopening: What it could mean for U.S. cattle markets
Link: EPA, Army Corps Propose Streamlined WOTUS Rule Aligned with
Supreme Court Guidance
Link: USDA Rolls Out Supplemental Disaster Relief Program Stage 2
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 14
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 14
Today’s Updates:
TOP STORIES
— Reuters: China’s big soybean buy signals initial compliance with Busan pledge
— USDA daily sales: 792,000 MT soybeans to China 2025/2026 marketing year
— China’s slow start raises doubts over big soybean pledge
— Trade not aid, or trade with aid? Farmers still seek mitigation help
— Government data backlog persists as agencies finalize release plans
— U.S. tariff cut leaves Brazilian coffee exporters frustrated
— India agrees first big LPG purchases from U.S. amid stalled trade talks
— Japan’s new leader, BOJ Governor hold first policy meeting
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Asian and European markets mostly lower; U.S. equities lower
— Equities yesterday: Major U.S. indexes decline
— Bitcoin slides below $90,000 as risk appetite fades
AG MARKETS
— Mexican border reopening: What it could mean for U.S. cattle markets
— Brazil soybean outlook improves as weather holds steady
— U.S./China soybean pact falls short of historic volumes, reinforces S.A. dominance
— Dairy herd expansion offers modest relief to beef supply squeeze
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Key commodity moves
FARM POLICY
— Update on SDRP 2 announcement
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil markets steady as sanctions bite Russia but surplus looms
— Oil prices softened Monday as Russia resumes exports
— Biofuels mandate fight intensifies as EPA weighs final RFS update
TRADE POLICY
— USTR Greer presses EU on slow-walking tariff deal implementation
CONGRESS
— House poised for vote on Epstein files release
FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY
— Trump touts falling prices, but data shows inflation has edged higher
— Food industry sees relief as tariff exemptions ease cost pressures
TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS
— NTSB to probe causes, costs in Baltimore Key Bridge collapse
— Underdeveloped ports loom as the next big supply-chain shock
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Excessive rainfall Southwest/California; snow in Upper Midwest,
Great Lakes, and western mountains
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 18, 2025
Up Front— China resumes large, politically driven U.S. soybean purchases at steep premiums, helping jump-start its Busan pledge.— USDA confirms a fresh 792,000-ton U.S. soybean sale to China for 2025/26 delivery.— Despite the pledge, China’s actual soybean buying remains behind schedule, though U.S. officials insist Beijing can and will catch up.— More aid despite trade. Even with record corn exports and stronger soy prices, many farmers still argue trade mitigation and other financial aid are needed.— Key labor, trade and farm data remain delayed as federal agencies slowly rebuild release schedules after the shutdown.— Brazil’s coffee (and beef) sector is angered that Washington scrapped a 10% tariff but left a punishing 40% surcharge that has crushed specialty exports.— India inks its first major LPG import commitment with the U.S., using energy trade to ease tensions over Trump-era tariffs.— Japan’s new Prime Minister and the BOJ chief hold their first policy meeting, signaling gradual tightening while watching inflation and the yen.— Global stocks are weaker today and U.S. futures point lower as markets juggle patchy data, Fed rhetoric and late-season earnings.— Yesterday, major U.S. equity indexes fell roughly 1%, extending last week’s pullback.— Bitcoin has tumbled below $90,000, erasing 2025 gains as investors retreat from risk amid rate and valuation worries.— A possible reopening of the Mexican border to cattle would likely bring only a slow trickle of animals, not a flood, into U.S. markets.— Brazil’s soybean crop is about 81% planted with mostly favorable weather; early harvest starts late December, but February remains the key supply month.— The new U.S./China soybean pact offers short-term demand but locks in lower volumes and reinforces Brazil’s dominant export position.— Expansion of beef-on-dairy herds is modestly easing America’s tight beef supplies, though it won’t solve the broader cattle shortage.— Grain and livestock futures closed mostly higher yesterday, led by strong gains in soybeans and feeder cattle.— USDA’s SDRP Stage 2 will broaden disaster aid and could be followed by a later “top-up” if funds remain, but payment limits still apply.— Oil prices are holding steady as tighter Russian supply from sanctions collides with forecasts for a sizable 2026 global surplus.— Crude dipped Monday after Russia quickly restarted exports from Novorossiisk, though drone attacks and new sanctions keep volatility elevated.— EPA’s proposed 2026–27 RFS update pits farm-state lawmakers seeking higher biofuel blending against refinery-state critics warning of higher costs and RIN stress.— USTR Jamieson Greer heads to Brussels to press the EU over delays and new conditions tied to implementing the summer tariff cap deal.— The House will vote today on a bill forcing release of Jeffrey Epstein files, with Trump’s late endorsement boosting chances of passage.— Trump claims prices are falling, but official data show inflation and grocery costs have edged higher this year, especially for tariff-hit goods.— Food makers and restaurant chains welcome broad tariff exemptions on key ag imports, which are beginning to lower input costs and ease menu-price pressure.— NTSB opens hearings on the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse amid soaring rebuild costs, a delayed 2030 reopening, and wider bridge-safety concerns.— Maersk’s CEO warns underdeveloped ports and land-side bottlenecks, not ship shortages, could drive the next major global supply-chain shock.— NWS sees heavy rain risks in the Southwest and significant mountain snow from the Sierra Nevada to Utah and parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Top Stories—Reuters: China’s big soybean buy signals initial compliance with Busan pledge —despite steep premiumsState trader COFCO books largest U.S. purchase since January as political commitments outweigh cheaper Brazilian offersChina has snapped up its biggest volume of U.S. soybeans in nearly a year, a politically driven buying spree that traders say fulfills commitments made during the October Trump/Xi summit — even though the cargoes cost sharply more than comparable supplies from Brazil, Reuters reports.China’s state grain trader COFCO purchased at least 14 cargoes — roughly 840,000 metric tons — of U.S. soybeans on Monday, Reuters said, citing four traders familiar with the deals. (Others put the purchases at 20 cargoes and as high as 1.2 million metric tons. Early morning price move would suggest business may still be taking place). It marks China’s most significant U.S. soy purchase since at least January and a notable step toward meeting the 12-million-ton pledge Washington says Beijing made at the Busan summit. — Of note: USDA this morning said private exporters reported sales of 792,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year. But any sales that did not meet the daily sales reporting threshold will not be known until the data for the week ended Nov. 20 is released Dec. 15 Most of the shipments will load from U.S. Gulf terminals in December and January, with the remainder sourced from the Pacific Northwest. Traders said the total could climb if additional deals are finalized.Despite the surge, the economics remain stark: COFCO paid $2.35–$2.40 per bushel over the January CBOT contract for Gulf shipments and $2.15–$2.20 for Pacific Northwest cargoes — nearly double the roughly $1.25/bushel premium for Brazilian new-crop soybeans.The renewed buying follows months in which China largely avoided U.S. soybeans due to the trade war, turning instead to Brazil and Argentina. The absence of the world’s top buyer helped push U.S. soy prices toward multi-year lows this summer, intensifying financial pressure on U.S. farmers struggling with high fuel, fertilizer and seed costs.But Monday’s purchases provided a jolt of optimism: Chicago soybean futures jumped nearly 3%, hitting a 17-month high, while export cash premiums at Gulf and PNW terminals rose by 10 cents per bushel or more, traders said.U.S. Soybean Export Council CEO Jim Sutter welcomed the development, saying the Busan commitments were “turning into business for U.S. soy farmers and exporters.” President Donald Trump said last week sales would be “on track by the spring.”China imported nearly 27 million tons of U.S. soybeans last year — more than double the 12-million-ton commitment it is now working to meet, Reuters noted. Of note: Market chatter suggests China is aiming to secure roughly 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in this buying round, while COFCO and Sinograin are expected to release a similar volume of reserve soybeans as part of an inventory swap. This year’s dry U.S. beans make the exchange attractive due to their better storability. Focus will be on whether China continues to step up purchases of U.S. soybeans. —China’s slow start raises doubts over big soybean pledgeCallahan says Beijing still has capacity — and the U.S. “fully expects” it to deliver The Trump administration “fully expects” China to honor its commitment to buy large volumes of U.S. soybeans, even as early trade data shows that Beijing is far behind pace, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative Julie Callahan told senators in written responses following her confirmation hearing. China pledged after last month’s Trump/Xi meeting to purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and 25 MMT annually for the next three years, according to a Nov. 1 White House fact sheet (link). But Chinese buyers have so far taken far less than that amount. Callahan told Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) that multiple factors — state stockpiling decisions, animal feed blending standards, and flexibility in demand management — give China room to escalate purchases. She also argued the commitments were grounded in historical buying patterns, responding to Sen. Ron Wyden’s (D-Ore.) skepticism given China’s failure to meet agricultural targets under the Phase One deal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed that confidence recently, saying he expects China to meet its obligations (see red box for details). President Trump also said Friday that purchases had begun, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that China would be “doing a lot” of buying and that he had spoken with “top-of-the-line” officials in Beijing. Still, market analysts warn incentives are misaligned. Some note that Chinese crushers have already booked roughly 40 MMT from South America for the current marketing year and see “zero financial incentive” to switch to higher-priced U.S. supplies. Any meaningful uptick would have to come from state reserve buyers — and that appears to be the case as noted previously Callahan told senators she would work closely with USDA and Treasury to ensure China is held to its commitments and said USTR is pushing for expanded market access through tariff and non-tariff barrier reductions in ongoing trade discussions. The Senate Finance Committee is scheduled to vote Wednesday on forwarding Callahan’s nomination to the full Senate. The panel will hold an executive session to consider several nominees, including two prospective Office of the U.S. Trade Representative deputies —Callahan, picked to serve as chief agricultural negotiator; and Jeffrey Goettman, nominated to be deputy for Africa, the Western Hemisphere, Europe, the Middle East, environment, labor and industrial competitiveness. The U.S. hopes to finalize its deal with China on rare earth minerals trade by Thanksgiving, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Sunday. Bessent responded to a report last week by the Wall Street Journal that said China was considering a validated end-user system that could restrict U.S. military-affiliated companies from importing rare earth magnets from China. The report, Bessent said, was “irresponsible.” “We haven’t even finished the agreement, which we hope to have done by Thanksgiving,” he said. “And I am confident that post our meeting in Korea, between the two leaders — President Trump, President Xi — that China will honor their agreement.” —Trade not aid, or trade with aid? Some farmers say even though U.S. corn exports are record large, and China is reappearing in the U.S. soybean market, still needed is trade mitigation aid from the Trump administration and other financial aid from Congress later this year. Soybean prices are at 17-month highs. —Government data backlog persists as agencies finalize release plansKey labor, trade, and agriculture reports remain unscheduled as agencies work through post-shutdown delays Schedules for several major federal data releases remain in flux. While a handful of reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau are slated for publication this week, many additional indicators still lack updated release dates as agencies continue developing their catch-up timelines. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment of Traders report is also pending. The CFTC has said releases will occur sequentially, a process likely to produce two reports per week until the backlog is cleared. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is similarly working to rebuild its publishing calendar after the shutdown halted regular reporting. The agency is expected to require an extended period to fully catch up — and it remains uncertain whether some delayed reports will ultimately be released. —U.S. tariff cut leaves Brazilian coffee exporters frustratedSpecialty coffee shipments plunge 55% as 40% surcharge remains in place The Trump administration’s Nov. 14 executive order removing the basic 10% tariff on a range of agricultural imports — including coffee — has failed to satisfy Brazil’s coffee industry. Exporters say the decision provides little practical relief because the additional 40% tariff under Section 301 remains fully intact, continuing to hit Brazil’s coffee sector at its most vulnerable point. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) said it is still analyzing the measure, seeking clarity on whether the decree applies only to the 10% tariff or also touches the additional surcharge. Cecafé President Márcio Ferreira and CEO Marcos Matos said they are in contact with U.S. trade counterparts and will issue a more definitive assessment once the implications are clear. Specialty-coffee exports plunge under “super tariff.” For Brazil’s specialty-coffee producers, the situation is far more acute. The Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA) reported that during August through October — the period in which the 40% surcharge was in effect — specialty-coffee exports to the United States dropped 55%, falling from 412,000 to 190,000 60-kg bags. BSCA warned that prolonged exposure to the surcharge risks permanent displacement in U.S. blends, particularly as roasters substitute beans from Colombia, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Costa Rica, and Indonesia. “The maintenance of this tariff makes it increasingly difficult or even irreversible to regain space in American blends,” said Cecafé’s Marcos Matos. Risk of permanent substitution and renewed push for diplomacy. Brazilian exporters fear that changes in U.S. consumer flavor profiles could become entrenched if competitors fill supply gaps. Both Cecafé and BSCA urged accelerated diplomacy between Brasília and Washington to restore normal trade flows in the coming weeks. Broader impacts across agriculture — with limited exemptions. A preliminary survey by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) found that about 80 Brazilian agricultural products — representing $4.6 billion in exports in 2024 — benefited from the removal of the 10% tariff. But only four products, including Brazil nuts and several types of orange juice, were fully exempt. Coffee and beef remain subject to the 40% surcharge. For citrus exporters, the rollback offered partial relief, as concentrated and NFC orange-juice tariff codes were included in the list exempt from the reciprocal 10% surcharge. The standard U.S. tariff of US$415 per tonne, however, still applies. Beef sector losses mount. The 40% tariff has also hit Brazilian beef. Industry group Abrafrigo estimates $700 million in losses since August, with exports to the U.S. down 36.4% for the quarter and falling even further in October. Still, Abiec believes U.S. demand for Brazilian industrial beef for hamburger production will sustain some export flow, given Brazil’s strong position in that niche market. Coffee industry presses for full tariff removal. With the U.S. specialty-coffee market among Brazil’s most important, industry groups warn that delays in negotiations carry strategic risks. Cecafé and BSCA say full elimination of the remaining tariffs is essential to avoid long-term damage to Brazilian market share. —India agrees first big LPG purchases from U.S. amid stalled trade talks‘Historic’ pledge to source around 10% of LPG imports from U.S. Gulf Coast comes as New Delhi seeks relief from Trump tariffs India has committed to importing a significant share of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the United States — a move analysts describe as both “landmark” and politically strategic. According to the Financial Times, New Delhi has pledged to source roughly 10% (2.2 million tons) of its LPG import requirements from U.S. Gulf Coast producers. Note: Liquefied petroleum gas, LPG, i.e., mainly propane/butane, is being discussed in the recent deal, not LNG (liquefied natural gas). The deal marks India’s first time undertaking a structured LPG import commitment from the U.S. for this purpose. The shift is part of a broader diversification strategy away from Middle Eastern LPG suppliers, where over 90 % of India’s LPG currently comes from. The timing aligns with growing trade pressure from the U.S., including tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on Indian goods, making energy-import shifts politically significant. Strategic implications•For India, securing U.S. LPG supplies helps bolster its energy security and gives New Delhi greater leverage in trade negotiations — not just for energy, but potentially for tariff relief.•For the U.S., expanding LPG exports to India provides a tool to engage in trade rebalancing while reducing India’s reliance on the Middle East. The deal also signals that energy trade is being leveraged as a diplomatic instrument in broader U.S./India relations, especially at a time when discussions on agriculture, industry tariffs and bilateral trade remain stalled. What to watch• Volume and timing: How quickly India converts the pledge into actual cargoes, and the size of those cargoes versus the 10 % target.•Pricing and contracts: Whether the U.S. LPG will come on favorable terms relative to Middle East suppliers, given freight, logistics and timing.• Trade politics: Whether this move leads to any tangible easing in U.S. tariff measures on Indian goods, or conversely, whether the U.S. uses the deal to extract further trade-concessions from India.• Supply chain shifts: Whether Middle East LPG producers respond (for example by cutting prices) and how global suppliers adjust to an Indian pivot. Outlook: This deal represents a clear signal of energy-diplomacy in action. India is simultaneously pursuing energy diversification and attempting to repair its trade relationship with Washington. The next months will be critical: actual deliveries, contract terms, and any linked trade-talk outcomes will determine whether this commitment evolves from a headline to a structural shift in the U.S./India trade/energy landscape. —Japan’s new leader, BOJ Governor hold first policy meetingUeda, PM Takaichi discuss inflation, currency moves, and the path toward policy normalization Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda met with newly installed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for the first time since she took office last month, describing the session as “candid, good talks on economic, price, financial developments as well as on monetary policy.” Ueda said Takaichi made no requests or demands on policy, emphasizing that the BOJ will make an “appropriate” decision as it continues “gradually adjusting the degree of monetary policy support to make a smooth, stable landing toward its 2% inflation target.” He noted that Takaichi appeared to “acknowledge” the points he laid out. The governor also stressed that the BOJ is watching currency movements closely and will coordinate with the government as needed given their impact on the broader economy. The meeting follows a long-standing tradition in which the BOJ chief holds bilateral discussions with a newly appointed prime minister and typically meets quarterly to review economic and price conditions. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Asian and European stock markets mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings. In Asia, Japan -3.2%. Hong Kong -1.7%. China -0.8%. India -0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London -1.2%. Paris -1.3%. Frankfurt -1.2%. The probability of a quarter-point rate cut is now 42.9%, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Today, there are multiple economic reports due to be released but only some will actually “print” due to the lingering effects from the government shutdown. They include Import Prices (E: -0.1% m/m), Industrial Production (E: -0.1%), Housing Market Index (E: 37), and Factory Orders (E: 1.4%). Additionally, there are a couple Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barr (10:30 a.m. ET), and Barkin (11:00 a.m. ET) and more late-season earnings due to be released including: HD ($3.81), BIDU ($0.91), BRBR ($0.54), SQM ($0.68). The Sevens Report says for markets to stabilize, “markets will be looking for solid economic data trends, less-hawkish Fed chatter, and strong earnings numbers. Otherwise, the selling pressure could continue into the critical release of Q3 earnings from NVDA tomorrow.”
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 17 | Point Difference from Nov. 14 | % Difference from Nov. 14 |
| Dow | 46,590.24 | -557.24 | -1.18% |
| Nasdaq | 22,708.07 | -192.51 | -0.84% |
| S&P 500 | 6,672.41 | -61.70 | -0.92% |
—Bitcoin slid below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, marking a sharp reversal in investor risk appetite. The drop has erased all the cryptocurrency’s gains for 2025, leaving it nearly 30% off its October high above $126,000. The renewed selloff comes amid mounting economic pressures, including fresh concern over interest rates and increasingly stretched valuations across speculative assets.
| AG MARKETS |
—Mexican border reopening: What it could mean for U.S. cattle markets
Backlogged supply appears limited; any renewed imports likely to start slowly
U.S. cattle markets have been on edge amid rumors that the Mexican border could soon reopen to cattle imports, prompting questions about how many animals might come north and how quickly. In a recent analysis for Cow Calf Corner, Derrell Peel outlines the likely impacts if cross-border cattle movements resume — and why expectations of a sudden surge are probably misplaced.
Background: Two decades of steady imports, interrupted by drought. According to Peel, U.S. imports of Mexican cattle have averaged 1.17 million head annually over the past 20 years, typically equal to 3.3% of the U.S. calf crop. Imports include steers and spayed heifers, with heifers normally representing about 15.6% of total volume.
But severe drought in Mexico in 2023 and 2024, combined with rising U.S. cattle prices, dramatically accelerated exports.
• 2023: 1.25 million head imported; 28.4% were spayed heifers.
• 2024 (before late-November border closure): another 1.25 million head, on pace for 1.45–2.0 million—potentially a record—with 37.1% spayed heifers, also a record.
Peel notes these unusually large — and heifer-heavy — exports signaled herd liquidation in Mexico and were not sustainable.
If the border had stayed open in 2025. Peel estimates that, absent the closure, 2025 imports would likely have dropped to the 0.95–1.0 million head range because fewer cattle were available. Only 229,055 head crossed during brief openings earlier this year.
How many cattle are actually available now? A central unknown is how many cattle that might have been exported have already been redirected into Mexico’s domestic market:
• Mexican feedlots appear to be substituting cheaper Mexican cattle for their typical Central American imports.
• Improved rainfall — with the 12-month average in Chihuahua at its highest since mid-2023 — has given producers more flexibility to hold cattle.
• Spayed heifer exports are essentially off the table because the export window is tight and uncertainty over border timing is high.
• There are signs of greater heifer retention in northern Mexico.
Peel estimates that only 200,000–400,000 head may currently be available for export— far less than some market rumors imply.
Even if the border opens, flows will be slow. Peel cautions that reopening the border won’t trigger an immediate surge. Export operations would ramp up gradually because:
• Border posts must re-staff and reactivate inspection protocols.
• Producers need time to prepare cattle and documentation.
• Additional inspections could further slow early movement.
As a result, Peel says very few cattle would cross before year-end — “a trickle rather than a flood.”
—Brazil soybean outlook improves as weather holds steady
Planting advances, early harvest approaches, and February remains the key production month
Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean campaign continues to progress smoothly, with agricultural agencies and private analysts reporting that approximately 81% of the crop is now planted nationwide. Producers across the key farm belt states — Mato Grosso, Paraná, Goiás, and Rio Grande do Sul — are benefiting from generally favorable weather, marked by timely rains and stable soil moisture that have supported strong early crop development.
Early planted soybeans are on track for harvest in late December through early January, creating the first wave of new-crop supply. These “first-cycle” beans typically come from Mato Grosso and parts of Goiás, where farmers plant aggressively at the start of the season to capture early export demand and prepare fields for second-crop corn.
However, the bulk of Brazil’s soybean harvest will arrive in February, when main-season fields in the central and southern regions mature. February remains the decisive month for global soybean markets, as this is when the majority of Brazil’s record-large crop is expected to hit export channels.
Analysts note that while weather has been broadly cooperative so far, traders continue to monitor localized dryness in parts of southern Brazil and excess moisture pockets in the north. For now, though, forecasts point to continued favorable conditions that support strong yield potential.
—U.S./China soybean pact falls short of historic volumes, reinforces South America’s market dominance
Purdue economists Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier say China’s renewed purchases offer U.S. farmers relief but little long-term recovery as Brazil and Argentina cement export gains
A new U.S./China soybean agreement has officially ended Beijing’s six-month suspension of U.S. imports, but the purchase commitments fall well below China’s pre-trade-war buying patterns and solidify the export advantages South American suppliers built during the disruption, according to an analysis in farmdoc daily by Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
Under the deal, China will buy 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and commit to at least 25 MMT annually through 2028. Even if China fulfills the 2025 pledge, total U.S. exports to China would reach roughly 18 MMT for the year — one-third below 2024 levels and the lowest since the onset of the 2018 trade war. Before trade tensions, China routinely accounted for 60% of all U.S. soybean exports; since 2020, that share has slipped to about 50%.
Soybean futures briefly firmed on the news, touching nearly $11 per bushel, but Colussi and Langemeier note that cash prices remain below breakeven for many producers as basis adjustments erase much of the rally.
Brazil surges to record exports. The prolonged absence of U.S. shipments allowed Brazil to seize extraordinary market share. From January to October, Brazil exported 79 MMT of soybeans to China — nearly 80% of its total shipments during that period and already above last year’s record total. Even with U.S. supplies returning late in the year, Brazil is expected to finish 2025 with roughly 82 MMT exported to China, about 10 MMT more than in 2024.
Looking ahead, Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean plantings are projected at 121 million acres, a record high. The authors note that even if U.S.–China trade normalizes in 2026, Brazil will remain highly competitive due to scale, logistics, and acreage expansion.
Argentina also capitalizes on China’s buying shift. Argentina saw a parallel boost. Higher Chinese interest, combined with a temporary suspension of the nation’s 26% export tax, pushed Argentine soybean exports to 7.6 MMT through September — 65% above 2024’s full-year total.
Although Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean area is expected to shrink 4.3% amid a shift toward corn and sunflowers, timely rains and improved yield potential still position the country for another strong export year.
U.S. outlook: Lower Chinese demand, higher competition. Colussi and Langemeier stress that even with partial tariff relief, U.S. soybeans still face a 13% Chinese tariff, keeping South American origins more competitive. With China unlikely to return to earlier purchase volumes and with Brazil and Argentina benefiting from record acreage and improved weather, the authors warn that U.S. exporters may need to rely increasingly on secondary markets across East Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia.
While some diversification progress is emerging — notably in Thailand, Bangladesh, and Morocco — it remains unclear whether these markets can meaningfully offset weaker Chinese demand. Without stronger export growth, the authors caution that U.S. farmers could face continued acreage shifts and additional financial strain in 2026.
—Dairy herd expansion offers modest relief to beef supply squeeze
Record milk-cow numbers — driven by the boom in beef-on-dairy calves — give the tight U.S. beef market a small but meaningful lift
A surge in the U.S. dairy herd — now the largest in at least 25 years — is providing a rare bright spot for a meat sector grappling with historically tight cattle supplies and record-high beef prices, Bloomberg reports.
USDA data show the nation averaged 9.54 million milk cows in Q3, the most since records began in 1998 and roughly 200,000 more than a year earlier, marking the biggest year-over-year gain on record.
According to Bloomberg, the key driver is the explosive profitability of beef-on-dairy calves — crossbred animals that dairy farmers raise instead of sending cows prematurely to slaughter. These calves are commanding $1,000–$1,500 each, making them one of the strongest income streams in the livestock sector.
Why the dairy herd is growing. Agricultural lender CoBank’s Abbi Prins told Bloomberg that farmers now earn far more by breeding cows for beef-on-dairy calves than by culling them for meat. “This big jump in dairy cow numbers is largely due to the beef-on-dairy situation,” Prins said.
Opportunity. Even with a bearish milk market — Class III cheese-milk futures down 17% this year and Class IV butter-milk prices down 33% — dairy producers are holding onto animals because the beef market is signaling scarcity, not surplus.
Impact on the beef shortage. Steiner Consulting chief economist Altin Kalo cautioned that dairy cows are still a small share of the total cattle inventory, meaning this won’t solve the national herd decline outright. Even so, the jump may allow the U.S. calf crop to rise for the first time since 2018, easing pressures at the margin.
Bloomberg notes that slaughter-weight cattle prices hit all-time highs this year, and availability remains exceptionally tight — a major political pressure point as President Donald Trump pushes tariff rollbacks, including Friday’s cut on beef duties.
A tale of two markets. Mike McCully of McCully Consulting described competing price signals: “The milk market is saying: ‘Cut production.’ The beef market is saying: ‘Hold onto your cows.’ And the beef signal is overwhelming everything else.”
USDA also reported that Q3 milk output was the highest for that season since 1998, even as butter prices recently plunged to 2021 lows amid a national glut.
Bottom Line: The expansion of the dairy herd won’t fully resolve the U.S. beef shortage — but the boom in beef-on-dairy calves is adding crucial supply at a time when cattle numbers remain historically tight. For consumers facing record beef prices, it’s one of the few developments offering even modest relief.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov .17 | Change vs Nov .14 |
| Corn | Dec | 4.34 3/4 | +4 1/2 |
| Soybeans | Jan | 11.57 1/4 | +32 3/4 |
| Soybean Meal | Dec | 330.80 | +8.30 |
| Soybean Oil | Dec | 0.5114 | +0.0099 |
| SRW Wheat | Dec | 5.44 1/4 | +17 |
| HRW Wheat | Dec | 5.28 3/4 | +13 1/2 |
| Spring Wheat | Dec | 5.73 3/4 | +9 |
| Cotton | Dec | 0.6236 | -0.0013 |
| Live Cattle | Dec | 221.275 | +2.125 |
| Feeder Cattle | Jan | 326.275 | +5.725 |
| Lean Hogs | Dec | 78.575 | +0.075 |
| FARM POLICY |
—Update on SDRP 2 announcement
A top-up payment is expected, but not guaranteed
USDA on Monday, Nov. 17 rolled out full details of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) Stage 2, along with new guidance on additional Stage 1 quality-loss payments. The update significantly expands how producers — especially those with losses not fully captured by crop insurance — may qualify for assistance.
Dollars to date for SDRP 1 is $5.7 billion out the door, leaving approximately $10 billion of the $16 billion available under the total program (Stages 1 and 2). If not all of the $10 billion is spent under Stage 2 then USDA will adjust and do a top up across the total program. As a reminder, USDA is applying a 35% payment factor to Stage 2 just like it did for Stage 1 to be consistent.
It is very difficult to estimate the dollars expected under Stage 2 due to the uncovered losses (no crop insurance or NAP) and the fact that most of the higher dollar value crops like specialty crops and high value crops will be covered under Stage 2.
The final rule published in the Federal Register Nov. 18 provides the rules for making Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) assistance for eligible quality losses under Stage 1 of the program and to implement Stage 2 of SDRP, the On-Farm Stored Commodity Loss Program (OFSCLP), and the Milk Loss Program (MLP), all of which will provide assistance using funding authorized by the American Relief Act, 2025.
Expanded Stage 1 Quality-Loss Payments
USDA will now compensate farmers for certain quality losses not covered by crop insurance, such as:
• Discounts for excess protein on soft white wheat
• Discounts for broken kernels, damaged grain, or similar dockages
FSA will apply a formula based on actual discounts farmers received — not RMA data. Because crop insurance does not capture these quality factors, producers must provide actual sales documents to certify losses.
Forage producers are also eligible. FSA will:
• Assign nutritional-value ranges for each forage type
• Calculate payments based on the documented loss in feed value
• Apply the standard 35% factor
Of note: As with all Stage 1 payments, USDA pays 35% of the calculated amount.
FSA will issue payments as applications are processed and approved.
All SDRP payments are subject to the availability of funding. If additional funding is available after all eligible SDRP applications have been processed and payments have been issued, FSA may issue additional SDRP (top-up) payments, not to exceed the maximum amount allowed by law.
FSA estimates that gross payments under SDRP Stage 2 will be $7.6 billion, with $16.1 million for On Farm Storage and $3.3 million for Milk Loss Program (MLP).
FSA said the estimated factor will be 35% for SDRP Stage 2, 31% for On-Farm Storage losses and 50% for Milk Losses.
FSA said total payments (with a factor, if needed) are expected at $2.7 billion for SDRP Stage 2, $5.0 million for On-Farm Storage, and $1.65 million for Milk Loss, with a total of $2.71 billion.
FSA will issue payments as applications are processed and approved.
All SDRP payments are subject to the availability of funding. If additional funding is available after all eligible SDRP applications have been processed and payments have been issued, FSA may issue additional SDRP (top-up) payments, not to exceed the maximum amount allowed by law.
FSA estimates that gross payments under SDRP Stage 2 will be $7.6 billion, with $16.1 million for On Farm Storage and $3.3 million for Milk Loss Program (MLP).
FSA said the estimated factor will be 35% for SDRP Stage 2, 31% for On-Farm Storage losses and 50% for Milk Losses.
FSA said total payments (with a factor, if needed) are expected at $2.7 billion for SDRP Stage 2, $5.0 million for On-Farm Storage, and $1.65 million for Milk Loss, with a total of $2.71 billion.
Signup for the aid will start Nov. 24.
Signup for SDRP Stage 1 and Stage 2 is to close April 30, 2026.
| Comments and Calculations from Paul Neiffer, Farm CPA Report (link)Stage 2: Recalculated IndemnitiesFor insured producers, Stage 2 largely consists of re-running their crop insurance indemnity using SDRP’s expanded coverage levels:Coverage ≥80% is bumped to 95%Premiums and fees are added back inThe resulting indemnity increase is multiplied by 35%Quality-loss discounts (as described above) can also be incorporated. Stage 2 Payments for Producers with No Crop InsuranceFarmers without insurance still qualify. The calculation:Eligible Acres ×County Expected Yield ×Average Market Price ×70% SDRP factor = SDRP LiabilityThen:( SDRP Liability – Adjusted Production Value ) × 35%Example (Neiffer): James farms 100 acres of corn in Walla Walla County.County yield: 260 bu/acreMarket price: $4Expected value: $104,000SDRP liability @70% = $72,800Actual production: 150 bu/acre = $60,000Final payment: $4,480 Deadlines & Payment TimingFinal application deadline for Stage 1 & 2: April 30, 2026No additional top-ups expected before Dec. 31, 2025USDA may issue extra payments later if funds remainPayment Limits$125,000 per person/entity$250,000 if ≥75% of AGI from farming$900,000 limit for specialty and high-value cropsThese limits mirror Stage 1Program Spending StatusStage 1 paid so far: $5.7BStage 2 initial (35%) payout estimate: $2.7BTotal so far: ~$8.4BTotal SDRP funding: $16.09BThat leaves $7.0–7.6B potentially available for future top-ups — equivalent to roughly an additional 30% payment, depending on final participation.Dairy Dumped-Milk PaymentsProducers who dumped milk due to a qualifying disaster are eligible. Payment rules:Based on 75% of market price (farmer absorbs first 25%)Adjusted for hauling and promotion fees that would have been paidPayment reflects:Number of cowsProduction historyNumber of dumping daysPayment limit: $125,000 / $250,000USDA expects the full $1.65M authorized for dumped milk to be utilized. |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil markets steady as sanctions bite Russia but surplus looms
Benchmarks steady while traders balance tightening flows against a rising 2026 glut
Oil prices stabilized Tuesday after early session weakness, as traders weighed the tightening effect of new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude against mounting forecasts for a global supply surplus next year.
Brent crude inched up 2 cents to $64.21 a barrel by late morning in London, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 6 cents to $59.97.
Analysts said the market is being pulled in opposite directions: sanctions imposed in October on Rosneft and Lukoil are already squeezing Moscow’s export revenue and could curb volumes over time, but major banks expect a steady rise in global output. Traders are assessing a growing global surplus even as sanctions disrupt Russian flows.
The Trump administration said the October sanctions have begun biting, and a senior White House official signaled President Trump would sign Russia sanctions legislation if the final authority for implementation remains with the president. Trump also said Republicans are drafting a bill to target any nation doing business with Russia — potentially including Iran.
Expanding U.S. sanctions on Chinese ports and refiners are squeezing the flow of Russian and Iranian oil into the world’s largest crude importer. Major state-run processors have halted purchases of ESPO — the grade that represents the bulk of China’s Russian imports — after Washington sanctioned Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. Additional U.S. action against the Rizhao oil terminal, which once handled roughly 10% of China’s crude inflows, is further constraining shipments from Iran.  |
Meanwhile, Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed loadings Sunday after a two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian missile and drone attack. The halt temporarily knocked offline export capacity equal to about 2.2 million barrels per day, roughly 2% of global supply, pushing prices up last Friday.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects crude prices to drift lower through 2026 as a “supply wave” keeps the market in surplus, though Brent could climb above $70 in 2026–27 if Russian production drops more sharply than anticipated.
—Oil prices softened Monday as Russia resumes exports
Resumption at Novorossiisk eases supply fears, but drone strikes and sanctions keep pressure on markets
Oil prices edged lower Monday after Russia restarted crude loadings at its Black Sea hub of Novorossiisk, ending a two-day suspension that briefly disrupted roughly 2% of global supply and sent prices sharply higher late last week.
Brent crude settled down $0.19 to $64.20 per barrel, while WTI slipped $0.18 to $59.91. Both benchmarks had gained more than 2% on Friday following Ukrainian drone strikes that halted operations at Novorossiisk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal.
Export loadings resumed Sunday, according to port data, though analysts warned the threat to Russian energy assets remains elevated. Ukraine confirmed additional weekend strikes on the Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries, continuing a pressure campaign on downstream infrastructure.
Markets are also watching new U.S. sanctions taking effect Nov. 21, barring dealings with Russian producers Lukoil and Rosneft. Washington is weighing whether to extend restrictions to foreign firms that continue business with Moscow.
OPEC+ earlier this month reaffirmed plans to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December before pausing further increases in early 2026. Analysts say the move will do little to counter expectations of a persistent surplus. ING projects the market will remain oversupplied through 2026, citing rising non-OPEC output alongside escalating geopolitical risks — from drone attacks to maritime tensions and last week’s Iranian tanker seizure in the Gulf of Oman.
Volatility is expected to persist. Speculators increased their net long positions in ICE Brent by more than 12,000 contracts last week, largely via short covering. Analyst says the shift signals caution about betting against crude amid sanctions uncertainty.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast that oil prices will drift lower into 2026, expecting an average supply surplus of about 2 million barrels per day as production growth continues to outpace demand.
— Biofuels mandate fight intensifies as EPA weighs final RFS update
Farm-state lawmakers back higher blending targets; oil-state members warn of refinery costs and supply strain
The long-running clash between agriculture and energy interests is flaring again as EPA prepares to finalize its 2026–27 Renewable Fuel Standard updates — a proposal that boosts biofuel blending volumes and reshapes incentives in ways that split key Trump-aligned constituencies.
EPA’s draft rule would sharply increase renewable volume obligations (RVOs) and, for the first time, slash the value of RIN compliance credits for imported biofuels and feedstocks. Farm-state lawmakers say the changes would strengthen demand for domestically produced ethanol and biodiesel, delivering certainty for corn and soybean growers. Oil-state members, however, warn the plan could saddle refiners with higher compliance costs.
Farm-state lawmakers push for certainty and higher volumes. Under the proposal, the renewable fuel requirement would rise by roughly 1.7 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons in 2026 and 2.1 billion in 2027, giving U.S. producers a competitive edge as imported feedstocks lose half their RIN value. Midwest lawmakers from Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and others have urged EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin to finalize the plan unchanged.
Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) said she wants the rule out by year-end to give growers clarity: “Our corn and soybean growers … need certainty around the RFS.” She joined 48 farm-state members in pressing Zeldin to hold firm against refiners’ objections.
Refiners warn of cost spikes, supply constraints. Refinery-state lawmakers argue the proposal would make compliance more expensive by limiting access to low-cost imports, which they say are needed because domestic supply cannot meet mandated volumes. A group of 40 House Republicans wrote that reducing RIN values for foreign feedstocks would “hamper President Trump’s strategy to unleash American energy” and put U.S. refiners at a competitive disadvantage.
The tension is amplified by the program’s structure: biofuel producers benefit from higher RVOs, while refiners pay more for RIN credits if they cannot blend enough biofuel directly. As one industry analyst put it, “Biofuel producers get a subsidy … oil producers get taxed.”
Small-refinery exemptions become a flashpoint. A parallel fight centers on small-refinery exemptions (SREs) — waivers EPA can grant to small refiners facing “disproportionate economic hardship.” Whether waived volumes should be reallocated across larger refiners is heavily contested.
Oil-state Republicans, including the full Texas House delegation, argue reallocation would unfairly shift costs to refiners that have already invested to comply with the program. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) went further, accusing the “swampy corn lobby” of driving up fuel prices and introducing legislation to block any reallocation.
EPA later proposed an option for partial reallocations, but farm-state lawmakers say only 100% restoration will preserve demand for growers. Without it, they warned, “the benefits of the original proposal won’t reach the farm gate or lower prices at the pump.”
Industry sees accumulating pressures. Oil industry officials say the combination of higher RVOs, reduced RIN values for imports, and potential SRE reallocations could strain the system. One industry source warned of “death by a thousand cuts,” suggesting refiners might eventually struggle to obtain enough RINs.
Budzinski dismissed refinery concerns, saying the proposal simply creates “competitive equal footing” for biofuels at a time when farm income remains under pressure.
EPA is reviewing public comments submitted through Oct. 31 before sending its final rule to the White House Office of Management and Budget for interagency review.
| TRADE POLICY |
—USTR Greer presses EU on slow-walking tariff deal implementation
USTR heads to Brussels as Washington signals mounting frustration with EU delays
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will travel to Brussels this week for talks with European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič amid rising U.S. concerns that the European Union is dragging its feet on implementing the transatlantic tariff deal announced this summer.
Under the July agreement between President Donald Trump and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the U.S. pledged to cap tariffs on most European products at 15% — including lowering duties on autos — once Brussels advanced legislation to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial goods.
Although the European Commission introduced the necessary legislation in August, progress has stalled, prompting growing frustration in Washington, according to reporting from the Financial Times. Greer told the paper the EU’s tariffs remain too high, while a senior administration official called the bloc’s slow progress “unfortunate” and warned Europe not to “miss its opportunity” given the president’s recent shift in approach toward the region.
The legislation has also encountered turbulence in the European Parliament. International Trade Committee Chair Bernd Lange has proposed amendments that go beyond the bilateral deal — including requiring the U.S. to lower steel and aluminum tariffs to 15% in exchange for matching EU reductions, a response to the Commerce Department’s August expansion of tariffs to more than 400 steel and aluminum derivatives. That derivatives issue is expected to feature prominently in upcoming talks between Šefčovič and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who will visit Brussels next week, according to Bloomberg.
Lange has also pushed for an 18-month sunset clause that would void the tariff pact unless a more comprehensive agreement is reached, a move he argues is needed to align the deal with WTO rules.
| CONGRESS |
—House poised for vote on Epstein files release
Trump’s late reversal boosts GOP support for two-thirds-threshold measure
The House is expected to vote today on legislation compelling the release of the Jeffrey Epstein case files, a measure that requires a two-thirds supermajority to clear the chamber. Republican leaders had anticipated a wave of defections from President Donald Trump last week, as many in the party signaled support for the bill despite his opposition. But with Trump now reluctantly backing the measure, GOP support is expected to rise. He had fiercely opposed releasing the files until Sunday, when it became clear he could not stop the bill’s momentum. On Monday, Trump said he would sign the measure if it reaches his desk, stressing that he did not want the issue to overshadow what he views as his administration’s successes.
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—Trump touts falling prices, but data shows inflation has edged higher
Grocery and consumer costs have risen in 2025 despite select declines
President Trump insists inflation and consumer prices are dropping, telling reporters Sunday that grocery costs are “already at a much lower level than they were with the last administration.”
But federal data paints a more mixed picture. Annual inflation reached 3% in September — its highest since January — while grocery prices climbed 1.4% between January and September.
Overall consumer prices have risen 1.7% during Trump’s second term, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some categories, including pharmaceuticals and eggs, have seen declines, but many goods affected by recent tariffs have become more expensive in recent months.
—Food industry sees relief as tariff exemptions ease cost pressures
Grocers, beverage makers, and restaurant chains welcome lower input costs after Trump administration lifts duties on key imports
Food companies and restaurant operators are finally seeing cost pressures ease after the Trump administration rolled back tariffs on hundreds of imported agricultural products — from beef and coffee to coconuts. The broad set of exemptions follows months of elevated input costs that have squeezed packaged food makers, restaurant chains, and beverage companies.
Industry groups praised the move. The Food Industry Association, representing grocers and food wholesalers, said the exemptions are “a critical step” to maintaining stable, affordable supply. The National Restaurant Association said the rollback would stabilize supply chains and reduce cost-inflation throughout 2025.
Companies are already recalculating their exposure. Beverage maker Vita Coco, a Barron’s stock pick, said the average tariff rate on its U.S.-bound products will fall from roughly 23% to about 6% based on current sourcing and product mix. Brinker International, owner of Chili’s Grill & Bar, said tariff-driven commodity costs have been higher than anticipated this year, prompting a price increase in October and another expected in January. The tariff rollback should meaningfully ease those pressures.
President Donald Trump framed the move as part of his affordability agenda, telling McDonald’s franchise owners Monday night that his administration is “ending the affordability crisis.” He pointed to a 14% drop in breakfast-item prices — such as bread, eggs, and dairy — over the past six months.
What’s next: Chocolate maker Hershey — which had projected up to $170 million in 2025 tariff costs — is positioned to benefit now that cocoa, not grown in the U.S., qualifies for exemption. With cocoa prices down from their December 2024 peak, JPMorgan analysts estimate the tariff relief could add $1 per share to Hershey’s 2026 earnings.
| TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS |
—NTSB to probe causes, costs in Baltimore Key Bridge collapse
Hearing focuses on power loss aboard Dali, soaring reconstruction costs, and nationwide bridge vulnerabilities
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) will hold a public hearing today on the March 2024 collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore Harbor, a disaster triggered when the cargo ship Dali lost power and struck the structure, killing six workers.
In the aftermath, the NTSB has called for fresh safety assessments of 68 bridges across 19 states — specifically older bridges built before 1991 that are routinely transited by large ocean-going vessels but have not undergone modern vulnerability evaluations.
The hearing comes as Maryland officials revealed a sharp increase in reconstruction costs, which have climbed from the initial $1.7–$1.9 billion estimate to a new projected range of $2.3 to $5.3 billion. The state attributes the escalation to the need for a redesigned, longer and higher span and a more robust pier system intended to reduce collision risks.
The bridge is now expected to reopen in late 2030, two years later than initially planned. The ballooning costs and extended timeline have renewed scrutiny of national bridge safety and highlighted the increasingly expensive challenge of hardening key infrastructure against vessel strikes.
—Underdeveloped ports loom as the next big supply-chain shock
Maersk’s Vincent Clerc warns that port bottlenecks, not ships, could define the next phase of global trade disruption
Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc is flagging a new weak link in global logistics: the world’s underdeveloped ports. In comments highlighted by ShippingWatch, Clerc said he expects underinvestment in ports worldwide to become the next major disruptor in container shipping, arguing that ports remain one of the most critical constraints in the system even as the industry grapples with ship overcapacity and trade rerouting.
Clerc’s warning comes after several years in which shocks like the pandemic, the Red Sea security crisis, and U.S./China trade tensions have dominated attention. Maersk itself has repeatedly noted that while vessel oversupply is weighing on freight rates, the real stress points in the system often appear on land — where terminals, hinterland connections, and labor capacity struggle to keep up with shifting trade flows.
Clerc sees the risk not so much in headline “mega-hub” ports — where investment has surged — but in a long tail of smaller or emerging gateways that have not kept pace with modern logistics demands. These ports face chronic underinvestment in cranes and yard equipment, limited berth depth for larger vessels, patchy digital systems, and inadequate road and rail links inland. When trade patterns suddenly shift — because of a geopolitical shock or a new trade deal — these weaknesses can turn into severe choke points.
The CEO’s concern is also tied to the way shipping networks are being redrawn. Rerouting around the Red Sea and Suez has forced carriers to adjust rotations and add calls in alternative ports, from Africa to the Mediterranean and around the Cape of Good Hope. That rerouting soaks up vessel capacity and exposes smaller ports to volumes they were not originally designed to handle, magnifying delays and congestion risks.
Clerc’s broader message is that, even as new ships ordered during the pandemic boom flood into the market and depress rates, any serious disruption at key but underprepared ports could flip the balance from “too many ships” back to “too little usable capacity.” In such a scenario, queues at a handful of constrained terminals could reverberate through schedules worldwide, just as local port outages during Covid cascaded into weeks-long delays and record freight prices.
Underdeveloped ports also sit at the crossroads of several structural shifts: near-shoring and “friend-shoring” in North America and Europe; ambitious port-building programs backed by China’s Belt and Road and other investors; and the green transition, which requires new infrastructure for alternative fuels and electrified equipment. If these projects stall or remain unevenly distributed, carriers could find themselves with modern fleets calling at outdated terminals that undermine reliability and schedule integrity.
For shippers and policymakers, Clerc’s warning suggests a change in focus. After years fixated on vessel supply and headline route disruptions, the next phase of resilience work may hinge on “second tier” ports: upgrading basic infrastructure, digitizing customs and documentation, strengthening hinterland rail and road connectivity, and building redundancy across multiple gateways instead of relying on a handful of mega-hubs. In other words, the next big shipping shock may not come from the sea — but from the quays where the global trading system still rests on some surprisingly fragile foundations.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest/southeastern California on Tuesday… …Light snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Tuesday… …Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the southern Utah Mountains and Sierra Nevada Mountains.
