USDA Crop Production, WASDE Reports Out Nov. 14
U.S./China trade truce takes effect Monday amid soybean price gap | Thune plans test vote on shutdown, saying deal is getting closer
Link: Trying to Clear the Foggy Air in DC: The Country’s Woes Are Building
Link: When Will U.S. Reopen Border to Mexico Cattle Re: Screwworm?
Link: Bessent Highlights U.S. Independence in Rare Earths, Inflation Progress
in Fox Business Interview
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 7
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 7
TOP STORIES
— Senate moves to end 40-day shutdown with three-bill spending package
— Trump floats $2,000 ‘tariff dividend’ for Americans
— Bessent suggests tariff ‘dividend’ could come through Trump’s tax cuts
— Healthcare standoff hardens as shutdown hits 40 days
— Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to curtail food stamp funding
— Trump administration orders states to halt full SNAP payments
— Trump calls for antitrust probe over rising beef prices
— Meat Institute issues statement on beef processing sector DOJ investigation
— Brazil’s coffee exporters seek 90-day tariff truce with U.S.
— Georgia Democrats gain momentum after special election wins
— Air travel turbulence: FAA orders flight cuts as shutdown deepens
WASHINGTON FOCUS
— Congress is a lot like recent airline flights in the United States: they can’t get lift off
— Thune: Senate to remain in session until shutdown deal is struck
— Trump slams Rand Paul for blocking no-pay bill during shutdown
TRADE & AGRICULTURE
— U.S./China trade truce takes effect Monday amid soybean price gap
— U.S./China trade truce uncertainty also keeps U.S. farm machinery makers on edge
— EPA expands biofuel waivers, escalating clash between refiners and farm sector
OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS
— Key hearings and events on tap this week
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS
— Fed navigates “data blackout” as shutdown silences key inflation and jobs reports
— Key U.S. economic reports (Nov. 10–14)
KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS
— USDA Crop and WASDE reports on Nov. 14 to offer key insights on yields, trade,
and Brazil’s soybean crop
KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS
— Energy focus: OPEC, EIA, and IEA to release monthly market outlooks this week
The Week Ahead: Nov. 9, 2025
Up Front — Senate spending push: Appropriators roll out a three-bill minibus (MilCon-VA, Agriculture, Legislative Branch) to end the 40-day shutdown. — Trump’s $2,000 “tariff dividend” plan draws scrutiny over legality, fiscal impact, and Supreme Court tariff case implications. — Healthcare standoff over ACA subsidy extensions hardens as shutdown drags on past 40 days. — Supreme Court stay on SNAP funding temporarily allows Trump administration to curtail food stamp payments. — Antitrust probe into meatpackers: Trump orders DOJ/USDA investigation over rising beef prices; industry pushes back. — Brazil’s coffee exporters seek 90-day tariff truce with U.S. amid 50%+ export collapse. — Georgia Democrats flip two statewide seats, boosting momentum ahead of 2026 Senate and governor races. — FAA orders flight cuts as shutdown deepens, warning up to 20% of flights could be grounded by Thanksgiving. — Thune vows no Senate recess until shutdown deal is reached; Republican frustration with Trump rises behind closed doors. — Trump criticizes Sen. Rand Paul for blocking no-pay bill for Congress during shutdown. — U.S./China trade truce takes effect Monday; markets await soybean tariff waiver decision as 10-point price gap with Brazil persists. — U.S./China truce uncertainty weighs on farm-machinery makers (CNH, AGCO, Deere) as farmers delay equipment purchases. — EPA expands biofuel waivers, escalating refinery–farm tensions and threatening ethanol and renewable diesel demand. — Key DC events this week: Agriculture, energy, and trade hearings including USMCA review, biofuel policy, and energy infrastructure discussions. — Economic calendar disrupted: shutdown delays CPI, jobs, and GDP data, leaving the Fed flying blind ahead of its December decision. — USDA to release delayed WASDE and Crop reports Friday, offering crucial updates on U.S. yields, China trade effects, and Brazil soybean and corn production. — Energy outlooks: OPEC, IEA, and EIA to release monthly market reports, while IEA unveils its World Energy Outlook 2025.Top Stories: — Senate moves to end 40-day shutdown with three-bill spending packageAppropriators release MilCon-VA measure; Agriculture and Legislative Branch bills to follow as leaders eye vote on CR and minibus Senate appropriators have begun unveiling portions of a three-bill spending package aimed at reopening the government after 40 days of shutdown. The Military Construction–Veterans Affairs (MilCon-VA) bill has already been released, while the Agriculture and Legislative Branch measures are expected later today. Of note: The Ag spending measure may include replenishment funding for USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) plans to bring the combined “minibus” package and a continuing resolution through Jan. 30 to the floor this evening, pending a procedural motion. Without unanimous consent, final passage could stretch into late next week, after which the House would also need to vote on the package. — Trump floats $2,000 ‘tariff dividend’ for AmericansPresident’s proposal draws questions over legality and fiscal priorities President Donald Trump said Sunday that qualifying Americans will receive at least $2,000 from tariff revenues collected by his administration — a plan that would mark one of the most direct redistributions of trade-related income in U.S. history. “A dividend of at $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” Trump posted on Truth Social, calling critics of his tariff policy “FOOLS!” The proposal, which would require congressional approval, mirrors but greatly expands upon legislation proposed earlier this year by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who introduced a bill offering $600 tariff rebates to most Americans and their dependents. Hawley argued that his plan would “allow hard-working Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump’s tariffs are returning to this country.” However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in August that the administration’s focus remains on paying down the $38.12 trillion national debt. Trump echoed that goal Sunday, writing that his administration would use tariff revenue to pay down the “ENORMOUS” debt while still distributing funds to Americans. According to Treasury data, the U.S. collected $195 billion in tariff duties through the first three quarters of 2025 — a record pace fueled by new duties imposed on trading partners worldwide. Yet consumers are also paying more: as of Oct. 17, the Yale Budget Lab estimated the average effective tariff rate had climbed to 18%, the highest since 1934, with businesses passing on much of the cost to households. Of note: The White House has not clarified how the proposed “tariff dividend” would be funded or distributed… see next item. Bessent suggests tariff ‘dividend’ could come through Trump’s tax cuts Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that President Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” for eligible Americans might take shape through the tax relief measures already embedded in the administration’s new economic policy law. Speaking on ABC’s This Week, Bessent said he hadn’t discussed the idea directly with Trump but noted that the president’s agenda already includes a series of tax reductions — including no tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security income, and deductibility for auto loans — that could deliver a comparable benefit. “The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms, in lots of ways,” he said. As previously noted, Trump earlier posted on Truth Social that “a dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high-income people!) will be paid to everyone,” deriding critics of his tariffs as “FOOLS!” The remarks come as Trump intensifies his defense of his global tariff regime following Supreme Court arguments on Nov. 5 challenging their legality. Several justices appeared skeptical of the administration’s use of executive power under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), suggesting the tariffs could be struck down — potentially triggering over $100 billion in refunds and upending one of Trump’s key second-term policies. Part of the case concerns the “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed April 2, which levy duties ranging from 10% to 50% on most imports depending on their country of origin. Trump argues the duties are justified to correct chronic U.S. trade deficits and strengthen national security. The Court also probed whether tariffs constitute de facto taxes — a power reserved for Congress — with Chief Justice John Roberts emphasizing that taxation “has always been the core power of Congress.” Trump, meanwhile, insists the tariffs have been a fiscal boon. “We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 trillion,” he wrote. Bessent echoed that sentiment, saying, “Over the course of the next few years we could take in trillions of dollars. But the real goal of tariffs is to rebalance trade and make it more fair.” — Healthcare standoff hardens as shutdown hits 40 daysDemocrats push to extend ACA/ObamaCare subsidies; Republicans accuse them of political brinkmanship while Trump touts new overhaul plan House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Sunday doubled down on Democrats’ refusal to drop demands for extending Affordable Care Act/ObamaCare subsidies, warning Republicans are “not acting in good faith” as the gov’t shutdown threatens to stretch past 40 days — the longest in U.S. history. In an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, Jeffries urged President Trump to “get off the golf course and back to the negotiating table,” saying the administration has spent more time posturing than engaging with Democrats. The party’s latest Senate proposal — a one-year ACA subsidy extension and bipartisan panel on premium costs — was swiftly rejected by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who called it “a nonstarter.” Republicans argue Democrats are holding the budget hostage to score political points. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) told Meet the Press the dispute “is not about health care” but “about Democrats wanting to show they’re fighting Trump.” Still, he expressed hope the shutdown will end by Thanksgiving. As noted previously, Trump floated a new idea on Truth Social: a plan to “take from the big, bad insurance companies, give it to the people, and terminate the worst healthcare anywhere in the world — ObamaCare.” Lankford said the concept was “pretty straightforward,” suggesting subsidies should go directly to consumers rather than insurers. Democrats like Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) blasted the post as a stealth bid to “eliminate the health insurance system,” while Republicans insist it reflects a broader push for “freedom of choice” in health coverage. With ACA open enrollment already underway and subsidies set to expire in December, both sides face intensifying pressure to break the impasse — or risk further chaos for millions of Americans dependent on subsidized coverage. — Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to curtail food stamp fundingJustice Jackson issues brief stay amid legal battle over SNAP aid during shutdown Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson on Friday temporarily blocked a lower court order that would have required the Trump administration to fully fund food stamps, injecting fresh uncertainty into the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which serves about one in eight Americans. The ruling, an administrative stay, does not decide the case’s merits but allows time for an appeals court to review the administration’s challenge. The White House has sought to withhold billions in SNAP funding during the government shutdown, arguing it cannot legally redirect federal accounts to sustain the program. Several states — including New York, Kansas, Pennsylvania, and Oregon — had already begun releasing full benefits after a federal judge in Rhode Island ordered the government to tap unused USDA accounts to cover payments. Justice Jackson’s stay, however, raised questions about whether those payments might now be delayed or reduced. Democrats swiftly condemned the move. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul called President Trump’s decision “heartless,” saying, “He doesn’t care if millions of Americans go hungry.” The Justice Department defended its appeal, arguing that “a single district court in Rhode Island should not be able to upend political negotiations” during the shutdown. The ruling capped a chaotic day in Washington as 42 million SNAP recipients awaited clarity on whether they would receive their full monthly benefits. USDA had indicated earlier it might release the funds, though officials gave no confirmation after the Supreme Court’s intervention. Trump administration orders states to halt full SNAP paymentsUSDA warns of funding consequences as Supreme Court ruling temporarily pauses food aid dispute The Trump administration has ordered states to stop issuing full food assistance benefits for November, instructing them to instead deliver only partial Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments — about 65% of the usual amount — to the 42 million Americans who depend on the program. According to a memo (link) from USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service, states must “immediately undo any steps taken to issue” full payments. The agency warned that states failing to comply risk losing federal funding used to cover administrative costs. The directive followed a late-Friday Supreme Court order by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who temporarily blocked a lower-court ruling requiring the administration to fully fund November SNAP benefits. Earlier in the week, a Rhode Island judge had ruled that the White House could not withhold full payments amid a legal standoff tied to the government shutdown. SNAP — the nation’s largest anti-hunger program — supports low-income households, particularly families with children, seniors, and individuals with disabilities. The funding freeze, now in its second month, has heightened uncertainty for millions of Americans facing food insecurity as states scramble to adjust benefit disbursements in compliance with the new federal order. — Trump calls for antitrust probe over rising beef pricesPresident accuses meatpacking companies of collusion; DOJ, USDA open joint investigation into alleged price-fixing in beef industry President Trump on Friday ordered a federal antitrust investigation into major U.S. meatpackers, alleging collusion to inflate beef prices amid record costs at supermarket meat counters.    The Justice Department’s antitrust division, in coordination with USDA, has begun examining whether the dominant beef processors — Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — engaged in coordinated behavior to boost profits. “Action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat illegal monopolies, and ensure these corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American people,” Trump said on Truth Social. In 2022, Biden launched an initiative to allow producers to report unfair trade practices by the industry. Meatpackers have long faced criticism for being too concentrated, and have paid hundreds of millions to settle price-fixing and antitrust lawsuits. Attorney General Pam Bondi confirmed the probe on X, marking the latest in a series of federal reviews targeting consolidation in the meat industry. Together, the four companies control about 85% of U.S. beef processing. “Ending the week with a new assignment, thank you for your attention to this matter, sir,” said DOJ antitrust head Gail Slater in a response to Trump’s announcement on social media. Retail ground beef prices climbed roughly 12% over the past year to an all-time high, driven by tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand for protein. U.S. cattle inventories are now at their lowest level since 1951, and feed and operational costs have surged.  Meatpackers, meanwhile, have reported financial losses over the past year as they contend with higher input costs and reduced slaughter volumes. Meat Institute issues statement on beef processing sector DOJ investigation The Meat Institute released the following statement on President Trump’s call for a Department of Justice investigation into the beef processing sector: “Despite high consumer prices for beef, beef packers have been losing money because the price of cattle is at record highs,” said Meat Institute President and CEO Julie Anna Potts. “For more than a year, beef packers have been operating at a loss due to a tight cattle supply and strong demand. “The beef industry is heavily regulated, and market transactions are transparent. The government’s own data from USDA confirms that the beef packing sector is experiencing catastrophic losses and experts predict this will continue into 2026. “U.S. beef processors welcome a fact-based discussion about beef affordability and how best to meet the needs of American consumers, who are the industry’s most important stakeholders. “Beef packers rely on cattle producers and cattle producers rely on beef packers. The entire beef value chain is strongest when supply is balanced by demand. Beef packers remain committed to ensuring safe, delicious, and nutrient dense beef remains affordable to American families who rely on its nourishment. We welcome the President and his team to visit our members’ beef facilities, both large and small, to witness firsthand the pride, skill, and dedication they bring to their work every single day.” Trump also accused “majority-foreign-owned meat packers,” including Brazil-based JBS and MBRF Global Foods, which owns National Beef, of exploiting the market. JBS shares fell 4% following his comments. The issue revives a debate from Trump’s first term, when the Justice Dept. issued subpoenas to the major meatpackers, and echoes concerns raised under President Biden, whose administration funded smaller processors to compete with large firms. Biden and Democrats took aim at the power of major meat companies following shortages, price spikes and labor violations seen throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. As inflation raged throughout 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its efforts to blame big companies for unnecessarily driving up prices, including through antitrust efforts, but no antitrust action ever was announced. In recent weeks, Trump has urged cattle ranchers to lower prices to ease grocery inflation — even suggesting beef imports from Argentina, a proposal that angered many ranchers and pushed feeder cattle prices down more than 10% last month. Cattle futures have eased recently, in part as Trump’s plans to import Argentinian beef hit prices. The move in futures markets reflects expectations that the shipments could eventually boost supplies, especially as trade talks are also ongoing with Mexico (link) and Brazil. But it can take longer for bolstered supplies to translate into cheaper prices at the retail level. Trump is also considering lifting the additional 40% tariffs on Brazilian beef and talks are expected soon with Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula and Trump met on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit (Oct. 26) and agreed their teams would “meet immediately” to advance solutions on tariffs and sanctions. Brazil is requesting that the U.S. suspend tariffs while negotiations progress. Suspension or rollback of tariffs is not guaranteed; the U.S. may tie such relief to other issues (e.g., political concerns as cited by the U.S. in its justification of the tariffs). Even if tariffs were reduced or lifted, effects on retail beef prices in the U.S. would likely be muted and delayed (due to supply-chain, processing and regulatory factors). While ranchers have long sought action against large packers, analysts note that importing more beef is unlikely to significantly affect retail prices — highlighting the complex economics behind America’s beef supply chain. — Brazil’s coffee exporters seek 90-day tariff truce with U.S.Industry warns steep duties are crippling trade as exports plunge by more than half Brazil’s coffee sector is pressing Washington for a 90-day suspension of new U.S. tariffs that have sharply reduced shipments and strained long-standing commercial ties. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) met again Friday (Nov. 7) with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin in Brasília to discuss potential relief. “What we are telling our authorities is to focus on products that are easier for the U.S. to exempt so that those can be cleared immediately. In the case of coffee, there’s mutual interest in an exemption,” said Cecafé’s Márcio Matos. Cecafé data show exports to the U.S. dropped 46% in August and 52.8% in September, pushing the U.S. down to third place among destinations for Brazilian coffee. Importers have been sharing tariff costs to preserve market share, while U.S. consumers face steep price inflation — instant coffee up 21.7% and roasted coffee 18.9% in the year through September. Industry groups including Cecafé, Abic, Abics, CNA, CNC, BSCA, and Brazil’s agriculture ministry jointly unveiled a rebranded “Cafés do Brasil” campaign during International Coffee Week to reinforce the country’s image as a sustainable, high-quality supplier. “If we have the capacity and produce responsibly, we just need to tell that story,” said Abics’ Aguinaldo Lima. — Georgia Democrats gain momentum after special election winsParty flips two statewide seats for the first time in nearly 20 years, fueling optimism ahead of 2026 Senate and governor races Democrats are riding a wave of optimism in Georgia following two surprise victories in special elections this week that flipped long-held Republican seats on the state’s Public Service Commission — the first statewide constitutional offices the party has captured in nearly two decades. Party officials say the results, which saw Democrats Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard defeat GOP incumbents Tim Echols and Fitz Johnson, reflect growing frustration with higher utility costs and the GOP-controlled commission’s handling of Georgia Power’s rate hikes. Democratic leaders framed the contests as referendums on affordability, pointing to six rate increases over two years. “I think this shows the momentum that we have going into next year,” said Georgia Democratic Chair Charlie Bailey, noting that the results have boosted confidence in Sen. Jon Ossoff’s 2026 reelection bid and the party’s prospects of retaking the governor’s mansion. Republicans downplayed the results as local anomalies, but Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin called the outcome a sign of “very bullish” prospects for next year’s statewide races. Democratic strategist Fred Hicks added that unexpectedly high voter turnout underscored growing engagement among voters concerned about economic issues. “Voters aren’t afraid to hold their party accountable when it comes to the economy,” Hicks said. Johnson, one of the winning candidates, personalized the issue during her campaign: “I’ve been a Georgia Power customer for 52 years. I pay the same bills Georgia families are struggling with today.” The victories, while limited in scope, have given Democrats a tangible morale boost in a state that remains a central battleground heading into the 2026 elections. — Air travel turbulence: FAA orders flight cuts as shutdown deepensTransportation Secretary warns up to 20% of flights could be grounded by Thanksgiving if impasse drags on The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) directed airlines to cut 4% of flights at 40 major U.S. airports as of Saturday, part of a phased plan that climbs to 6% and then 10% if the shutdown continues. That figure is set to climb to 6% by Tuesday and 10% by Friday, with Duffy warning that cancellations could reach 20% by Thanksgiving if the shutdown persists. On Saturday, a total of 1,762 flights were delayed, while 870 flights were canceled, with more than 16 air traffic control facilities across the country reporting shortages in staff. For example, a ground stop was issued at Nashville International Airport (BNA) and staffing constraints cited at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT). The flows of international flights are not currently subject to the mandated cuts. The reductions are a safety measure, according to Duffy, as controllers already stretched by staffing shortages are now working long hours without pay — and many have taken second jobs to cover lost income. “If this continues, and I have more controllers who decide they can’t come to work and control the airspace,” he cautioned, “cancellations will rise significantly.” The ripple effects are already visible. Bus lines, rental car companies, and Amtrak have reported surging bookings as travelers seek alternatives. Industry officials are urging Congress to end the impasse before holiday travel peaks, warning that flight schedules may take weeks to normalize even after a deal is reached. Smaller regional airports appear hardest hit so far, with places like Valdosta, Georgia, and Tyler, Texas, losing one-third of their daily connections to major hubs. International flights remain unaffected for now, but the FAA’s escalating restrictions are raising concerns that the impact on domestic air travel could worsen quickly if lawmakers fail to act. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
— Congress is a lot like recent airline flights in the United States: they can’t get lift off. But lawmakers are still being paid, while key airline personnel are not.
— Thune: Senate to remain in session until shutdown deal is struck
Majority leader pledges no recess until funding breakthrough as bipartisan talks show signs of progress
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said Saturday that the Senate will stay in session until lawmakers reach a deal to reopen the government. The upper chamber had been slated for a Veterans Day recess but will remain in Washington instead.
Thune told reporters the chamber’s immediate focus is finalizing text for a three-bill “minibus” spending package (including USDA) and a short-term continuing resolution (CR) to extend government funding most likely to Jan. 30. He described overnight bipartisan negotiations as “positive” and said appropriators were “getting close” to releasing bill text.
Democrats on Friday floated a proposal combining a one-year extension of enhanced health care subsidies, a clean CR, and the minibus package. Republicans rejected that offer but continued talks late into the night. Thune said GOP leadership hopes to vote as soon as this weekend, depending on whether the final language and votes can be secured.
Thune reiterated that while he can guarantee Democrats “a process,” he cannot promise an outcome on their desired tax credit extensions — signaling that negotiations remain fluid even as pressure mounts to end the protracted shutdown.
| At least ten Republican senators appear open to extending the Affordable Care Act/ObamaCare subsidies, acknowledging that many of their constituents are experiencing steep premium hikes. However, they are seeking modest concessions in return — including tightening eligibility requirements and possibly reducing the generosity of the subsidies. Behind closed doors, frustration among Senate Republicans is growing toward President Donald Trump, whom they blame for emboldening Democrats to resist compromise. On Wednesday morning, Trump called GOP senators to the White House, where he publicly pressed them to abolish the filibuster and push through government funding on a party-line basis. The president warned that the ongoing shutdown is inflicting significant political damage on Republicans. |
— Trump slams Rand Paul for blocking no-pay bill during shutdown
President accuses Kentucky senator of protecting congressional salaries as government workers go unpaid
President Donald Trump criticized Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.) after Paul objected to legislation that would suspend congressional salaries during the ongoing government shutdown. The proposal — introduced by Senator John Kennedy (R-La.) as the “No Shutdown Paychecks to Politicians Act” — sought to block lawmakers from receiving pay and to eliminate any back pay once federal operations resume. Kennedy requested unanimous consent to fast-track the measure, but Paul objected, arguing that senators “ought to be paid” for their work.
“Rand Paul, who never votes for anything, tried to stop it because he wanted to be paid!” Trump said. “Rand wanted to pay the people who stopped Government from working! What’s going on with Rand?”
Paul defended his stance, insisting that his objection stemmed from principle rather than self-interest. “I’m perhaps the most conservative member of the Senate,” he said. “I think we spend way too much, but I’m not for cutting the salaries of people who have a contract and who are doing their work.”
The episode underscores a larger political divide over how Congress should share in the financial pain of a shutdown. Kennedy framed his proposal as a matter of accountability, while Paul’s objection highlighted the tension between fiscal symbolism and the contractual rights of elected officials.
— U.S./China trade truce takes effect Monday amid soybean price gap
Markets await word on Beijing’s possible tariff waiver decision as firms sign new ag import deals
The U.S./China trade truce set to take effect Monday, Nov. 10, is expected to provide the first tangible test of whether Beijing will further ease tariffs on American farm goods — but uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook for U.S. soybean exporters. (The changes go into effect at 1:01 PM on Nov. 10 Chinese time, exactly one minute after midnight in the U.S., ET, when corresponding American actions – including a 10% reduction on fentanyl-related tariffs and a 24% reduction in Liberation Day tariffs — become effective.
Of note: According to the White House’s November 1 Fact Sheet (link), Beijing committed to extending its “market-based tariff exclusion process,” allowing for case-by-case tariff carve-outs on a long list of ag products.
Despite the cease-fire in the broader trade dispute, the price of U.S. soybeans remains uncompetitive against Brazilian supplies, largely due to a 10-percentage-point tariff differential that continues to favor South American sellers. Traders are watching closely to see if Beijing will grant temporary tariff waivers for U.S. shipments, which could narrow that gap.
At the center of the debate is whether China’s government will maintain the 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans, imposed in response to President Trump’s decision to retain equivalent tariffs on Chinese goods linked to fentanyl-related enforcement. The next few days will determine whether the truce results in any practical change for commodity markets or simply maintains the status quo.
Of note: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a final text could be signed last week, but no announcement landed.
It’s not just soybeans when it comes to U.S./China ag trade issues. The first shipment of U.S. sorghum is now on its way to China, marking a long-awaited first step after months of stalled trade. The renewed flow of grain reflects significant progress following last week’s U.S./China trade announcement, which suspended retaliatory tariffs and reopened key channels for American farm commodities.
The National Sorghum Producers (NSP) continues to advocate for a minimum purchase agreement of five million metric tons — the historical average for U.S. sorghum exports to China — as a baseline for future trade stability. This figure would provide the predictability growers need to plan confidently for the market, the group notes.
NSP’s legislative and communications teams have worked in coordination with USTR, USDA, and members of Congress to ensure sorghum remains front and center in trade discussions. “We’re encouraged by this progress and look forward to seeing it translate into significant commercial sales in the days ahead,” said Amy France, chair of NSP and a farmer from Scott City, Kansas. “True success will come when we see shipments moving and grain flowing again from U.S. farms to our customers in China.”
Beijing’s agricultural outreach. In a signal of long-term policy direction, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) Vice Minister Zhang Zhili recently urged cooperation between Chinese and overseas firms to build processing facilities and logistics hubs abroad, aiming to ensure what he called a “stable, secure, and resilient global agricultural industry chain.”
That push underscores Beijing’s dual strategy: reducing dependence on U.S. imports while maintaining flexibility in global sourcing and processing capacity — particularly in key commodities like soybeans and corn.
New contracts, unclear origins. Adding to the intrigue, one major Chinese firm signed contracts last week worth $5.2 billion to import soybeans, corn, cotton, and other agricultural products, according to Reuters. Yet, the country of origin for those purchases has not been confirmed, leaving traders uncertain whether any of those deals involve U.S. commodities. “It’s not clear,” one market participant told Reuters, noting that Brazil and Argentina remain dominant suppliers given current pricing and the existing tariff structure.
Outlook: Monday’s truce implementation will test both governments’ willingness to convert headline diplomacy into real trade flows. If China grants tariff relief — even temporarily — it could trigger a modest uptick in U.S. soybean sales and signal that Beijing is open to incremental easing. But if not, the U.S. Gulf and PNW export pipeline may continue to lag Brazil’s, leaving American growers waiting for clarity in a still-fragile market. If U.S. exporters (especially agriculture) leverage this moment effectively — by reinforcing supply chains, aggregating competitive pricing and exploring value-added services — the current window could lead to modest export gains. Yet, absent deeper tariff relief and China’s structural opening, gains may remain incremental rather than transformative.
— U.S./China trade truce uncertainty also keeps U.S. farm machinery makers on edge
Executives at CNH Industrial and AGCO say farmer demand remains weak as China’s follow-through on crop purchases remains unclear
The U.S. farm-machinery industry remains in limbo as equipment manufacturers await clearer signals from China following the recent trade truce. With few specifics on purchase commitments, executives say growers are holding back on new tractor and combine orders.
Gerrit Marx, chief executive officer of CNH Industrial NV — the maker of Case IH and New Holland equipment—cited “continued ambiguity” in global trade and “a still existing lack of certainty” for the U.S. agricultural economy. “One thing is a deal, the other thing is the actual purchase and the consistency of such purchases month after month,” Marx said during a recent earnings call.
China’s first soybean buys of the season briefly lifted futures to their highest level in more than a year, yet Marx noted that the real test will be whether buying continues through winter. “We need to see what China really buys in the end,” he added.
Shares of CNH fell as much as 12% Friday — the lowest since 2020 — after the company trimmed its full-year outlook. Rival AGCO Corp. reported that “phones weren’t ringing off the hook” for new tractor orders even after the deal announcement, and industry leader Deere & Co. will offer its own update later this month.
Bottom Line: For now, farm-equipment makers are stuck between cautious farmers and uncertain policy, waiting to see if Beijing’s promised purchases materialize into real demand. But others ask why would cash-strapped farmers buy very expensive farm equipment at this time.
— EPA expands biofuel waivers, escalating clash between refiners and farm sector
Trump administration grants new exemptions, raising fears of weakened demand for ethanol, renewable diesel, and biogas
The Environmental Protection Agency on Friday morning granted a new wave of waivers from federal biofuel mandates, deepening the divide between oil refiners and the biofuel industry. The decision — which includes two full exemptions and 12 partial reductions in blend obligations — follows the administration’s August move to clear a historic backlog of petitions from small refiners.
| • Full exemptions were granted for two petitions: one for 2023 and one for 2024• 50% granted for 12: 4 for 2021, 2 for 2022, 4 for 2023 and 2 for 2024• Two petitions were denied one each for 2023 and 2024 |
The waivers, which allow facilities processing fewer than 75,000 barrels per day to avoid blending mandates, could cut demand for renewable fuels by nearly 2 billion Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, surpassing EPA’s earlier forecasts. The agency now faces mounting pressure from both sides: farm and biofuel groups want the lost volumes reallocated to larger refiners, while oil companies warn that such “make-up” quotas would be unfair and possibly unlawful.
Renewable Fuels Association president Geoff Cooper warned that “the impact on biofuel and agriculture markets will be devastating” if the exemptions are not offset in future quotas. Analysts say the larger refiners could be forced to carry even heavier blending burdens in 2026–2027 if EPA sticks to its reallocation plan.
Among Friday’s winners were HF Sinclair, which reported $115 million in reduced compliance costs from earlier waivers, and Phillips 66, Big West Oil, and Silver Eagle — each receiving new partial or full relief. Chevron’s request for its Utah refinery was denied.
The latest round of exemptions, coming as EPA struggles to finalize 2026–2027 blending targets, underscores the agency’s challenge of forecasting future biofuel demand while petitions continue to arrive for past years. A court filing that was due Friday was supposed to detail how the administration’s reallocation plan could alter its schedule, with farm groups urging completion by year-end. The EPA’s June 13, 2025, proposed rule for 2026 and 2027 sets volume requirements: e.g., for cellulosic biofuel: 1.30 billion RINs for 2026, 1.36 billion for 2027; for biomass-based diesel: 7.12 billion RINs for 2026, 7.50 billion for 2027; for total renewable fuel: 24.02 billion RINs for 2026, 24.46 billion for 2027. The Clean Fuels trade group is urging the EPA to finalize the rule by Dec. 31 in order to provide clarity, and to include both full reallocation of SREs and a prospective estimate of future exemptions when setting 2026-27 volumes.
| OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
— Key hearings and events on tap this week include:
Agriculture / Farm Finance
Mon., Nov. 10
- Dairy Issues – Arlington, TX (through Nov. 12)
Joint annual meeting of National Dairy Promotion and Research Board, National Milk Producers Federation, and United Dairy Industry Association.
Relevance: Policy alignment with USDA marketing orders and trade exposure. - Western Growers Association Annual Meeting – Coronado, CA (through Nov. 12)
Focus on labor, water, and trade barriers for produce exporters.
Relevance: Farm policy and export competitiveness in the western states.
Wed., Nov. 12 – Friday, Nov. 14
- American Bankers Association Agricultural Bankers Conference – St. Louis (through Friday)
Relevance: Agriculture lending and credit outlook under higher interest rates and trade uncertainty.
Thursday, Nov. 13
- Farm Credit Administration Meeting
Discussion on veterans in agriculture and loan oversight under the Trump Administration.
Relevance: Farm credit regulation and access to capital.
Trade & USMCA
Thurs., Nov. 13
- Trade Issues – Henry L. Stimson Center
Discussion on “Ten Years of Arms Trade Treaty Transparency.”
Relevance: Broader U.S. trade transparency and export-control implications.
Fri., Nov. 14
- USMCA Review – Quincy Institute
Virtual discussion on “The USMCA Review: What Future for North American Economic Integration?”
Relevance: Central to Trump’s trade policy legacy; potential adjustments ahead of 2026 review. - USMCA and Power Competition – Washington International Trade Association
Webinar on “The Role of USMCA in Great Power Competition.”
Relevance: Frames USMCA within U.S./China strategic trade rivalry. - Mexico and U.S./China Tensions – Inter-American Dialogue
Discussion on “Mexico at the Crossroads — Navigating U.S./China Tensions.”
Relevance: Trade realignment in North America amid China tariffs.
Energy & Fertilizer
Mon., Nov. 10
- Clean Energy Infrastructure – Resources for the Future
Discussion on “Obstacles to Energy Infrastructure: Clean Energy and the NEPA Process.”
Relevance: NEPA reforms under Trump’s permitting agenda, affecting energy and fertilizer plants. - NATO and Energy Security – Hudson Institute
Panel on “NATO, Energy Security, and Europe-China Relations.”
Relevance: Energy supply security and LNG flow implications for fertilizer feedstocks.
Thurs., Nov. 13
- Energy and Manufacturing – U.S. Energy Association
Discussion on “Accelerating U.S. Energy & Manufacturing Goals.”
Relevance: U.S. industrial energy competitiveness and downstream fertilizer implications.
Fri., Nov. 14
- Biofuel Policy – Resources for the Future
Discussion on “The Future of Biofuels: Role of Policy in Biofuel Adoption.”
Relevance: Central for ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel markets. - Japan and Energy Transition – CSIS
Launch of “IEEJ Energy Outlook 2026” examining transition challenges.
Relevance: Fertilizer feedstock demand trends and LNG import competition.
| ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
Fed navigates “data blackout” as shutdown silences key inflation and jobs reports
With the October CPI likely scrapped and employment data frozen, policymakers face critical uncertainty ahead of December’s rate decision
Two straight monthly jobs reports and the crucial October Consumer Price Index have been casualties of the ongoing government shutdown — the longest in U.S. history — leaving Federal Reserve officials flying blind just weeks before their December policy meeting.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI release, originally scheduled for Thursday, has been delayed indefinitely as field data collection grinds to a halt. Analysts now see a high probability that no October CPI report will be issued at all. Without these reports, debate intensifies within a divided Fed over whether another rate cut is warranted at year-end.
BNP Paribas economists project that October’s employment and inflation data might be combined with November’s once the government reopens, but any figures will rely on retroactive surveys and incomplete datasets. Private-sector indicators can partly fill the jobs gap, yet no credible substitute exists for official inflation metrics.
Estimated Release Dates for Key U.S. Economic Data
Timeline represents BNP’s best case but “reasonable” scenario
| Release | Scheduled | Nov. 10 Reopening | Nov. 17 Reopening | Nov. 24 Reopening |
| Employment (Sept) | Oct. 3 | Nov. 12 | Nov. 19 | Nov. 26 |
| Retail sales (Sept) | Oct. 16 | Nov. 21 | Nov. 26 | Dec. 4 |
| GDP (Q3) | Oct. 30 | Nov. 26 | Dec. 3 | Dec. 9 |
| PCE (Sept) | Oct. 31 | Nov. 26 | Dec. 4 | Dec. 10 |
| Employment (Oct) | Nov. 7 | Nov. 26 | — | — |
| CPI (Oct) | Nov. 13 | — | — | — |
| PCE (Oct) | Nov. 26 | Dec. 19 | Dec. 19 | Dec. 24 |
| Employment (Nov) | Dec. 5 | Dec. 12 | Dec. 12 | Dec. 19 |
| CPI (Nov) | Dec. 10 | Dec. 17 | Dec. 17 | Dec. 17 |
Source: BNP Paribas Oct. 28 report
Note: October employment may be joined with November if shutdown extends. High chance of no October CPI release unless quick reopening
The last available CPI report showed a 3% annual rise in September for both headline and core prices — below expectations. Bloomberg Economics’ team said that, had the October figures been available, they likely would have justified a December rate cut. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that further easing is not guaranteed, particularly as some officials fear a rebound in inflation.
Markets continue to price in another reduction, but upcoming remarks from regional Fed leaders — including John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Stephen Miran, and Alberto Musalem — may shape expectations in the absence of fresh economic data.
— Key U.S. economic reports (Nov. 10-14)
Note: Several government data releases remain uncertain or delayed due to the ongoing U.S. gov’t shutdown.
Tue. Nov. 11
• U.S. gov’t closed for Veterans Day; U.S. stock and financial markets open except for bond market
• G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting is held in Canada through Nov. 12
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Thurs. Nov. 13
• Jobless Claims
• CPI
• Treasury Budget
Fri., Nov. 14
• PPI-FD
• Retail Sales
• Business Inventories
| — KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS |
— USDA Crop and WASDE reports on Nov 14 to offer key insights on yields, trade, and Brazil’s soybean crop
Delayed November reports to shed light on U.S. crop conditions and the impact of the U.S./China trade truce
USDA will release its November Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday, Nov. 14, following a four-day delay caused by the government shutdown. Despite the disruption, USDA enumerators have continued to collect objective yield data across major producing states, meaning this week’s reports will include the first updated look at ear and pod weights for corn and soybeans since the harvest season began.
The Crop Production report will be closely watched for signs of yield variability following late-season weather swings across the Midwest. Traders expect to see lighter corn yields, but not much change for soybeans based on initial expectations.
Meanwhile, the WASDE report will take on added importance as USDA analysts incorporate the recent U.S./China trade truce into their export projections. Market participants are looking for any indication that Beijing’s renewed buying commitments — particularly for soybeans, sorghum, and wheat — will translate into stronger U.S. export demand this winter.
Analysts also expect USDA to weigh in on Brazil’s old-crop soybean balance, with some private forecasters having raised their estimates amid reports of strong farmer selling and higher-than-expected carryover stocks. Early field surveys in Brazil have suggested favorable planting weather this fall, potentially setting up another large crop and intensifying global competition in 2026.
Taken together, the delayed reports will provide markets with a crucial snapshot of domestic yield performance, export expectations, and global supply shifts at a time when both trade dynamics and weather uncertainty continue to shape agricultural outlooks.
Mon., Nov. 10
• USDA export inspections: corn, soybeans, wheat
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board monthly data on stockpiles, exports and production
• China’s CASDE report
• Malaysia’s Nov. 1-10 palm oil exports
• Earnings: Tysons Foods, Marfrig
Tue., Nov. 11
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Global Grain Geneva, day 1
• Holiday: France, Canada
Wed., Nov. 12
• Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook, Bali, day 1
• Global Grain Geneva, day 2
• Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
Thurs., Nov. 13
• Global Grain Geneva, day 3
• Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook, Bali, day 2
• FranceAgriMer monthly grains balance sheet
• Brazil’s Conab releases production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
• Earning: GrainCorp, JBS
Fri., Nov. 14
• WASDE
• Crop Production
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions report
• Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook, Bali, day 3
| — KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Energy focus: All three of the major oil forecasting agencies — OPEC, the EIA and the IEA — will publish their monthly market outlooks during the week. The IEA will unveil its annual World Energy Outlook on Wednesday.
NOTE: U.S. releases are listed as normal, though data may be delayed or postponed amid the gov’t shutdown
Mon., Nov. 10
• UN COP30 conference continues; runs through Nov. 21
• Holidays: Azerbaijan, Angola
Tue., Nov. 11
• Holiday: Azerbaijan, Angola, Canada, U.S.
Wed. Nov. 12
• API US inventory report
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 report
• OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report
• ICE gasoil futures for November expire
Thurs., Nov. 13
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• IEA Monthly Oil Market Report
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• EU finance ministers meet to discuss topics including revision of energy taxation directive, Brussels
Fri., Nov. 14
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
