USDA Crop Production, WASDE Reports Today
Trump and trade team pivot on tariffs due to inflation concerns
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 7, updated later today
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 7, updated later today
Today’s Updates:
TOP ITEMS
— DOJ ended meat probe weeks before Trump ordered new one
— U.S. strikes new trade frameworks with four Latin American partners
— Brazil, U.S. target fast-track tariff truce as diplomatic reset gains momentum
— Trump retreats from tariff hard line as affordability fears surge
— China sidesteps questions on U.S. soybean purchase pledges
— Canada pivots timber exports amid US tariff assault
— USTR Greer: U.S. to lower tariff rate on Swiss Goods to 15%
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today:
— Equities yesterday:
— Fed officials are increasingly split on whether to deliver a cut in December
— Bond markets bring AI euphoria back to earth
— Walmart CEO transition marks end of an era
— JBS profit drops despite strong sales growth
— China’s secretive gold buying fuels record rally
AG MARKETS
— Soybean prices hit 17-month high amid So. American weather risks,
renewed Chinese demand
— Drone strike on Russian Black Sea port lifts wheat to four-month high
— USDA restarts export sales reporting after shutdown pause
— Cotton LDPs again available.
— Mexico launches plan to boost native corn output 50% by 2030
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
SLAUGHTER LINE-SPEED RULES
— USDA advances new slaughter line-speed rules
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices inch higher as Russia supply fears rise after Ukrainian drone strike
— Oil prices steadied Thurs. after sharp slide as sanctions risks offset surplus concerns
— White House moves toward RFS waiver decision
— Treasury hits reset on 45Z clean fuel credit rulemaking
U.S./MEXICO TRADE ISSUES
— Sources continue to signal January start for phased U.S./Mexico border reopening
— USDA expands screwworm eradication capacity with new Tampico facility
U.S./SOUTH KOREA TRADE ISSUES
— South Korea secures major strategic gains in sweeping trade pact with U.S.
CHINA
— China industrial output growth hits 14-month low
— China warns Japan of “firm response” over potential Taiwan intervention
CONGRESS
— Democrats press for renewed ACA/ObamaCare tax credits as subsidy fight resumes
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Justice Dept. moves to block California’s new map
— Tom Sell launches bid for Texas’ 19th District
FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY
— SNAP benefits set to return nationwide by Monday
TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS
— Noem awards $10,000 bonuses to TSA staff who worked through shutdown
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and debris flows possible
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 14, 2025
Up Front— DOJ ended meat probe weeks before Trump ordered new one – Justice Department quietly closed a pandemic-era probe of major meatpackers just before Trump demanded a fresh investigation amid record beef prices and packer losses.— U.S. strikes new trade frameworks with four Latin American partners – Washington unveils broad market-opening deals with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, trading tariff cuts for wider access for U.S. farm goods, autos and services.— Brazil, U.S. target fast-track tariff truce as diplomatic reset gains momentum – Brasília and Washington are racing to clinch a provisional tariff deal within weeks, aiming to unwind steep U.S. duties and normalize a strained trade relationship.— Trump retreats from tariff hard line as affordability fears surge – Facing voter anger over grocery prices, the White House prepares sweeping tariff exemptions on food and other imports, effectively unwinding parts of its own tariff regime.— China sidesteps questions on U.S. soybean purchase pledges – Beijing refuses to confirm U.S. claims of large soybean purchase commitments, keeping volumes vague and stoking uncertainty over how much business U.S. farmers will actually see.— Canada pivots timber exports amid U.S. tariff assault – Hit with higher U.S. lumber tariffs, Canadian producers plan to redirect about 10% of exports to Europe and the Middle East, potentially tightening U.S. housing supplies.— USTR Greer: U.S. to lower tariff rate on Swiss goods to 15% – Switzerland agrees to a $200 billion U.S. investment package and more Boeing purchases as Washington cuts tariffs on Swiss imports from 39% to 15%.— Equities today – Global stocks extend Thursday’s selloff as hawkish Fed talk, data uncertainty and AI-bubble worries pressure U.S. futures and drag European and Asian markets lower.— Equities yesterday – The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell around 1.6%–2.3%, led by big tech weakness as investors reassessed growth and rate-cut prospects.— Fed officials are increasingly split on whether to deliver a cut in December – Diverging views on inflation, a hazy data picture and labor-market signals leave odds of a December rate cut below 50% and policy direction uncertain.— Bond markets bring AI euphoria back to earth – Credit investors demand higher yields from Big Tech as AI-driven capex surges, signaling growing skepticism that massive data-center spending will deliver commensurate returns.— Walmart CEO transition marks end of an era – Longtime chief Doug McMillon will step down, handing the reins to Walmart U.S. head John Furner as the retailer navigates intense competition and regulatory scrutiny.— JBS profit drops despite strong sales growth – The meat giant’s earnings fall on negative U.S. beef margins tied to tight cattle supplies, even as Brazilian operations and global sales continue to grow.— China’s secretive gold buying fuels record rally – Analysts say Beijing’s opaque, likely much larger-than-reported gold purchases are a key force behind surging bullion prices and rising market volatility.— Soybean prices hit 17-month high amid South American weather risks and renewed Chinese demand – Futures rally on Brazilian planting delays, hints of stronger Chinese buying and the return of U.S. data, though speculative money is amplifying gains.— Drone strike on Russian Black Sea port lifts wheat to four-month high – A Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk raises questions about Russian export capacity, pushing wheat prices higher even as damage to grain facilities remains unclear.— USDA restarts export sales reporting after shutdown pause – FAS releases delayed weekly data and will publish a large package of backlogged daily “flash” sales, restoring normal export-reporting schedules.— Cotton LDPs again available – Lower world prices push the adjusted world price below loan rates, triggering a 17-cent loan-deficiency payment and marking the third recent week with cotton LDPs.— Mexico launches plan to boost native corn output 50% by 2030 – A six-year program will expand acreage, promote agroecology and support 1.5 million small producers with value-added community markets centered on native corn.— Agriculture markets yesterday – Grains mostly firm with higher corn and soybeans; cotton and livestock sagged sharply, led by steep breaks in live and feeder cattle.— USDA advances new slaughter line-speed rules – FSIS sends poultry and pork line-speed proposals to OMB, including a plan to scrap hog speed caps entirely if plants can maintain process control.— Oil prices inch higher as Russia supply fears rise after Ukrainian drone strike – Brent and WTI rebound about 1% as damage at Novorossiysk and tighter sanctions on Russian exporters stoke short-term supply concerns.— Oil prices steadied Thursday after sharp slide as sanctions risks offset surplus concerns – Crude finds support near $60 as traders weigh looming Lukoil sanctions against rising inventories and forecasts for a 2026 supply surplus.— White House moves toward RFS waiver decision – The administration is huddling with refiners and biofuel groups over how to handle 2.18 billion waived RINs and possible E15 expansion, with big stakes for fuel prices and farm demand.— Treasury hits reset on 45Z clean fuel credit rulemaking – Treasury withdraws its proposed 45Z rule, signaling a rewrite to reflect new OBBBA changes and pushing final guidance for low-carbon fuel producers further into 2026.— Sources continue to signal possible January start for phased U.S./Mexico border reopening – Trump has reportedly told USDA he wants the border opened as Rollins and Sheinbaum discuss livestock trade, screwworm control and Mexico’s water-treaty obligations.— USDA expands screwworm eradication capacity with new Tampico facility – A new sterile-fly dispersal hub in northeastern Mexico will allow rapid aerial treatments and precedes additional facilities planned in Mexico and Texas.— South Korea secures major strategic gains in sweeping trade pact with U.S. – A $350 billion investment and tariff deal gives Seoul big relief on autos and chips plus U.S. backing for nuclear submarines and expanded nuclear-energy cooperation.— China industrial output growth hits 14-month low – October factory and mining activity slow more than expected, though autos, shipbuilding and high-tech manufacturing remain bright spots.— China warns Japan of “firm response” over potential Taiwan intervention – Beijing lashes out at Tokyo after Prime Minister Takaichi suggests the SDF could act in a Taiwan conflict, fueling talk in Japan of expelling a Chinese consul.— Democrats press for renewed ACA/ObamaCare tax credits as subsidy fight resumes – After the shutdown ends, Democrats push to extend enhanced premium subsidies before 2025’s expiry, while Republicans demand broader health-care reforms.— Justice Dept. moves to block California’s new map – DOJ joins GOP litigation against California’s Proposition 50 map, alleging unconstitutional race-based districting that could decide control of the House in 2027.— Tom Sell launches bid for Texas’ 19th District – The longtime ag policy hand and lobbyist jumps into the GOP primary to succeed Rep. Jodey Arrington, running as a staunch Trump ally with deep farm-bill expertise.— SNAP benefits set to return nationwide by Monday – With government funding restored, USDA moves to quickly restart full SNAP payments, though Rollins vows to pursue fraud and data-matching reforms.— Noem awards $10,000 bonuses to TSA staff who worked through shutdown – Homeland Security will give sizable bonuses plus back pay to tens of thousands of officers who kept airport security running without pay during the 43-day shutdown.— NWS outlook: Heavy rainfall likely for Southern California; Plains heat and High Plains wind risks – Forecasters warn of dangerous flooding and debris flows in Southern California, record warmth across the Plains, and damaging winds in parts of the Rockies and High Plains. —DOJ ended meat probe weeks before Trump ordered new oneFresh inquiry comes amid record beef prices, industry losses The Justice Department quietly closed a years-long antitrust probe into major U.S. meatpackers just weeks before President Donald Trump demanded a new investigation, Bloomberg reports. Companies including National Beef, Tyson, JBS and Cargill had recently been informed the earlier inquiry — launched in 2020 — ended with no findings. Trump, focused on grocery affordability, called for an “immediate” probe into pricing by the four companies that control 85% of U.S. beef processing. Beef prices have hit record highs as cattle herds fall to 75-year lows, squeezing consumers even as packers report losses. Tyson posted a $426 million beef operating loss for the fiscal year; JBS also reported a quarterly loss. USDA said it is working to reduce beef prices while supporting ranchers. Trump has also vowed to boost Argentine beef imports, a move backed by packers but criticized by U.S. ranchers. Bloomberg notes that DOJ staff had internally flagged concerns about how packers use cash-market pricing in formula contracts—an issue that may resurface in the new investigation. Assistant Attorney General Gail Slater acknowledged Trump’s directive, calling it a “new assignment,” as DOJ and USDA expand cooperation under the Packers & Stockyards Act.—U.S. strikes new trade frameworks with four Latin American partners Tariff cuts on food and goods paired with expanded access for U.S. agriculture, autos and industry The U.S. on Thursday unveiled four new trade framework agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, setting the stage for reciprocal tariff cuts and expanded market access across a wide range of agricultural, industrial, and digital sectors. Full legal details will follow in the coming weeks, but the initial fact sheets show some of the broadest bilateral market-opening commitments Washington has negotiated in years. Link to White House fact sheet. Under the arrangements, the U.S. will drop tariffs on select imports — particularly foods and commodities not produced domestically — while each partner country will open its markets more fully to U.S. farm goods, autos, medical products, services, and digital trade. All four have also agreed to strengthen labor and environmental protections, ban imports made with forced labor, and reduce or eliminate barriers tied to licensing, certification, and product approvals. Argentina: Broad access for U.S. farm and manufactured goods. Argentina will open its market to a wide range of U.S. medicines, chemicals, machinery, information-technology products, medical devices, vehicles, and agricultural products. Within a year, it will allow U.S. poultry and streamline approvals for U.S. beef and pork. Buenos Aires will also avoid imposing new restrictions on American meats and cheeses and apply U.S. or international standards to U.S.-made imports. Argentina committed to tougher enforcement against counterfeit goods, to forgo digital services taxes, and to ensure fair treatment for U.S. companies in its critical-minerals sector while banning imports made with forced labor. In return, the U.S. will remove tariffs on certain natural resources and non-patented pharmaceutical-related articles. A senior White House official briefing reporters on the trade deals said the action will drop the 10% tariff on imports of Argentine beef. While an increase in the import quota for Argentina is not part of the agreement, the official said the U.S. still plans to quadruple the current quota from 20,000 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons but gave no timeline for that action and said that imports of Argentine beef beyond the quota level would remain at 25%. “But that 25% out-of-quota tariff is, you know, that’s congressionally set. So in the near term, I think we’re just going to let the market figure out, you know, how much beef it needs,” the official said. Update: The U.S. will announce tariff exemptions today for food items that originate from countries with and without deals with the U.S., Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says. Ecuador: Major tariff reductions on food and industrial imports. Ecuador will cut or eliminate tariffs on U.S. tree nuts, pulses, wheat, wine, spirits, fresh fruit, machinery, motor vehicles, medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and other goods. It will also modernize its licensing system to reduce non-tariff barriers for U.S. agricultural exports. Ecuador will recognize U.S. auto standards and U.S.-marketed medical and pharmaceutical products, avoid digital-services taxes, and strengthen labor enforcement and forced-labor bans. In return, the U.S. will remove tariffs on qualifying Ecuadorian exports not produced in sufficient quantity domestically — including coffee and bananas — while both sides deepen cooperation on investment security and non-market practices, implicitly referencing China. El Salvador: Streamlined approvals and guaranteed access for U.S. meats and cheeses. El Salvador will grant preferential access to U.S. pharmaceuticals, medical devices, remanufactured goods, and vehicles. It will expedite regulatory approvals, accept U.S. auto standards, allow electronic certificates, and eliminate apostille requirements. The country pledged not to restrict U.S. meats and cheeses — including parmesan, gruyere, mozzarella, feta, asiago, salami, and prosciutto — and to maintain clear rules on geographical indications. It will back a permanent moratorium on digital-transmission duties and reinforce commitments on labor rights, environmental protection, and illegal resource extraction. In exchange, the U.S. will remove reciprocal tariffs on Salvadoran exports and extend preferences to qualifying CAFTA-DR textiles. Guatemala: Expanded access and stronger IP, labor, and environmental standards. Guatemala will streamline approvals, accept U.S. auto standards, allow electronic certificates, and speed up product registration. It will also maintain U.S. access for common meats and cheeses and uphold science-based agricultural rules. Guatemala agreed to strengthen intellectual-property protections, resolve long-standing U.S. “Special 301” concerns, support cross-border data flows, avoid discriminatory digital taxes, and back a permanent WTO moratorium on digital-transmission duties. The country also reinforced commitments to labor rights, forest and fisheries enforcement, prohibitions on forced-labor goods, and actions against illegal logging, mining, and wildlife trafficking. The U.S. will drop reciprocal tariffs on qualifying Guatemalan exports — including products not produced domestically and eligible textiles and apparel. Bottom Line: These agreements collectively mark a notable shift in U.S. economic engagement in the region, pairing tariff relief with deeper regulatory alignment, environmental and labor commitments, and supply-chain cooperation. Further details will emerge as the framework texts are finalized in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, the New York Times on Thursday reported the Trump administration was considering further tariff exemptions on imported food products such as beef and citrus to ease prices, including from countries that have not reached trade agreements with the U.S. A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the story. See related item below on U.S./Brazil trade issues —Brazil, U.S. target fast-track tariff truce as diplomatic reset gains momentumBrasília expects provisional deal within weeks as Trump and Lula move past months of tension Brazil is signaling that a provisional trade accord with the United States could be finalized as early as this month, marking a sharp turnaround in relations after a prolonged dispute over steep U.S. tariffs and political tensions between the two governments. Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said Thursday that Washington reaffirmed a timeline for a “provisional deal by the end of this month or early next month,” following his meeting in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A more comprehensive agreement — aimed at resolving all major bilateral trade issues — is expected two to three months later. A State Department readout from spokesperson Tommy Pigott confirmed that the two sides discussed a “reciprocal framework” for resetting the U.S./Brazil trade relationship. The talks represent the most concrete progress since July, when President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports on top of his 10% across-the-board duties (including on beef). While exemptions followed for some key products, the measures triggered a diplomatic freeze and were widely interpreted in Brasília as an attempt to influence the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Momentum toward rapprochement began in September, when Trump and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva briefly crossed paths at the United Nations. The two leaders later met in Malaysia, with Lula pressing for tariff relief and the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Brazilian officials — and predicting a “definitive solution” soon. Vieira said Brazil submitted a formal trade proposal to U.S. officials last week and is expecting an initial response as soon as Friday. He offered no details on the proposal and said his talks with Rubio focused on broad principles rather than specific concessions. Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week hinted at potential tariff reductions on coffee — a product not included in earlier exemption lists — though Vieira said the issue did not come up in his meeting. Brazil, the world’s top coffee exporter, has been watching those signals closely as the two largest economies in the Americas attempt to rebuild a working trade framework after months of political and economic friction. —Trump retreats from tariff hard line as affordability fears surgeCoffee, bananas, beef, and more now on exemption list as rising prices — and political backlash — force a policy recalibration The Trump administration is moving rapidly to roll back portions of its own tariff regime, a striking shift that reflects mounting political anxiety over stubbornly high food prices and deteriorating consumer sentiment. After months of insisting that border taxes were not driving up the cost of living, senior officials now concede — at least implicitly — that tariffs are hitting pocketbooks and dragging down the president’s economic standing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made that reality hard to ignore this week when he previewed sweeping tariff exemptions aimed at lowering grocery bills. In a Fox News interview, Bessent said Americans would soon see “substantial announcements” targeting “things we don’t grow here in the United States, coffee being one of them, bananas, other fruits, things like that.” Pivot: The admission is notable. For months, the administration maintained that exporters — not U.S. consumers — were absorbing the tariff burden. But internal polling, retail price spikes, and a near-record plunge in consumer confidence have shifted the political calculus. Affordability push follows election warning signs. The tariff reconsideration comes just days after Democrats secured major off-year election victories by relentlessly hammering Republicans on affordability. Statewide wins in Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Georgia rattled GOP strategists, and Vice President JD Vance warned that Republicans must “focus on the home front” or risk deeper losses. White House officials have grown increasingly worried that grocery prices — especially for coffee, beef, and everyday fruit — pose an electoral threat. Government figures show coffee prices up nearly 19% and banana prices up nearly 7% over the past year. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index has sunk near levels last seen during the 2022 inflation peak. Pivot: The political fallout is already visible: recent surveys show President Trump with double-digit net negatives on the economy, trade, and inflation—an unusual position for a president who won re-election largely on promises of restoring economic strength. A broader retreat: From border taxes to exemptions. The tariff unwind now extends well beyond bananas and coffee. According to reporting in the New York Times, the administration is finalizing broad exemptions on food imports, including beef and citrus products, as well as a long list of manufactured goods, metals, minerals, antibiotics, aircraft components, and other agricultural items such as pineapples, avocados, and vanilla beans. Many of these were originally swept up in April’s reciprocal tariff regime — levies that often topped 15–30% for countries without trade deals. At the urging of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, officials are weighing exemptions even for countries that have not signed new trade agreements with the United States, a reversal that could raise questions about fairness but underscores the urgency of lowering costs. As noted previously, the administration has already inked new deals with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Guatemala, which qualify those countries for reduced tariff rates and expanded market access. But perhaps the biggest shift is the underlying acknowledgment: tariffs meant to showcase economic nationalism are now being adjusted to solve an affordability crisis they helped create. Internal divisions and farmer blowback. The retreat is not without political risks inside Trump’s own coalition. Agricultural groups — particularly ranchers — have strongly opposed exemptions that would allow more beef imports, arguing that such moves contradict Trump’s pledge to rebuild domestic production. The president has already clashed with ranchers over his earlier push to import more Argentine beef to lower prices. Farm groups worry that tariff exemptions could turn into a broader loosening of protections, especially if the administration begins making exceptions for countries that haven’t negotiated trade agreements. Economic reality forces a pivot. For months, the administration leaned heavily on the argument that exporters were paying the tariffs. But real-world price data — and voter frustration — told a different story.• Businesses passed on higher import costs through retail pricing.• Some firms slowed hiring or investment amid tariff uncertainty.• Coffee and fruit importers faced sticker shocks under taxes imposed on products the U.S. does not grow.• Consumers increasingly felt squeezed, even as equity markets hit record highs. The result: Americans who are not benefiting from the stock market rally feel disproportionately burdened by tariffs layered on top of years of inflation. As the Wall Street Journal editorial board noted, the administration’s rhetoric is now colliding with economic reality — and with political pressure. “Who wouldn’t be cranky about paying $6 for a dark roast cup of joe?” the board wrote, pointing directly at tariff-driven costs. Pivot: A new phase in Trump’s tariff strategy. The exemptions mark the most significant retreat yet from Trump’s sweeping tariff posture, and they signal a shift toward a more targeted, politically defensive phase of his trade policy. White House spokesman Kush Desai framed the changes as part of a “nimble, nuanced, multifaceted” strategy — not a reversal. But the momentum is unmistakable: April’s across-the-board tariff hikes prompted global retaliation and domestic price increases. Polls now show widespread concern about affordability and disapproval of Trump’s economic leadership. Democrats’ recent electoral wins amplified those concerns. With 2026 midterms looming, Republicans are moving to neutralize the issue. The administration is betting that tariff rollbacks — especially on visible consumer staples like bananas, coffee, cocoa, beef, and citrus — can deliver quick price relief and rebuild political goodwill. Bottom Line: Whether that is enough to shift voter sentiment remains uncertain. But for the first time since Trump reinstated aggressive border taxes, the White House is not just defending tariffs — it is unwinding them. And that marks a turning point. —China sidesteps questions on U.S. soybean purchase pledgesBeijing refuses to confirm 12 MMT/25 MMT commitments as officials stress ‘open, cooperative’ approach China’s Commerce Ministry on Thursday declined to confirm U.S. assertions that Beijing agreed to major new soybean purchase commitments as part of the late-October trade accord — a pointed omission that leaves one of the deal’s most politically sensitive components unacknowledged on the Chinese side. Of note: At a regular press briefing, ministry spokesperson He Yadong was asked directly to verify the White House claim that China would buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year and 25 million annually thereafter for 2026 through 2028. He declined, instead urging reporters to “refer to previously released information” describing the agreement’s “main achievements and consensus reached, including on agricultural trade.” Crucially, none of China’s official documentation or statements has referenced the specific soybean volumes touted by U.S. officials — an omission that has fueled uncertainty among traders and analysts who are watching closely for purchasing signals and shipment flows. He offered only broad assurances, saying that “China is an important participant in global agricultural trade and will continue to uphold an open and cooperative attitude.” The response underscores Beijing’s reluctance to publicly tie itself to fixed purchase quantities — especially amid volatile market conditions, domestic demand management, and ongoing trade frictions — even as Washington continues to frame the commitments as a key victory for U.S. farmers. Key questions going forward• Will China ratify publicly the specific volume commitments (12 MMT/25 MMT) or continue to use vaguer language?• Will Chinese procurers shift large volumes of U.S. soybeans in the near-term, given cheaper alternatives and weak margins at home?• How will U.S. exporters respond if volumes fall short? Is there any mechanism in the deal for enforcement or dispute resolution?• What role will the existing tariff (13% on U.S. soybeans vs 3% on Brazilian soybeans) play in determining how competitive U.S. beans are vs. Brazilian or Argentinian supply? And will the 10% U.S. fentanyl tariff be removed?• How will this affect U.S. farm income, regional political dynamics, and whether China’s agricultural trade is used again as a geopolitical lever? —Canada pivots timber exports amid US tariff assaultForestry sector plans to divert 10% of lumber bound for the U.S. toward the UK, EU and Middle East as Trump’s duties squeeze margins Canada’s forestry industry is preparing a major redirection of its lumber exports as President Donald Trump’s new tariffs make the U.S. market increasingly uneconomic, prompting one of the sharpest trade realignments in the sector in decades. According to reporting in the Financial Times, Canadian producers plan to reroute about 10% of the wood normally shipped to the United States — roughly 1 billion board feet — to alternative markets including the United Kingdom, the European Union and the Middle East. The initiative is being led by British Columbia, which accounts for more than half of Canada’s total lumber output. The pivot follows the U.S. decision to impose a new 10% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, on top of an existing 35% duty, sharply eroding Canadian competitiveness in its single most important foreign market. With roughly two-thirds of Canadian lumber exported—and about 90% historically going to the U.S.—the new tariff structure forces a rapid diversification effort. A revival of dormant trade routes. British Columbia officials are establishing a dedicated office in the UK and evaluating shipping and port capacity needed to handle new transatlantic volumes. The first redirected shipments are targeted for mid-2026. The move also revives a historic trade relationship: Canada was once a large supplier to the UK before Nordic producers took over the market in the 1990s. While European and Middle Eastern buyers represent smaller and more competitive markets than the U.S., Canadian officials say long-term diversification is essential to reduce exposure to politically driven U.S. trade actions.U.S. housing market may feel the strain. The reorientation could tighten lumber availability in the United States, where homebuilders already face elevated costs. American sawmills are operating below capacity, and industry groups have warned that the U.S. may struggle to replace displaced Canadian supply quickly. Canadian producers counter that once rerouting reaches commercial scale, U.S. buyers will face tangible supply constraints — and potentially higher prices — particularly if domestic production cannot fill the gap. Political and economic reverberations. The shift underscores how the Trump administration’s tariff strategy is reshaping cross-border supply chains, pushing Canada to reduce its historical dependence on the U.S. market. For Canada, the diversification push is both a hedge against future tariff volatility and a strategic rebalancing of its export portfolio. For the United States, the tariffs risk higher construction input costs and weaker housing affordability, injecting new political sensitivities into an already fraught trade relationship. Bottom Line: As global buyers weigh the potential influx of Canadian lumber, this episode highlights the broader consequence of tariff escalations: they do not simply raise border taxes — they redirect global trade flows in ways that can outlast the policy decisions that triggered them. —USTR Greer: U.S. to lower tariff rate on Swiss Goods to 15% U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the Swiss have also agreed to $200 billion in investments, starting with about $70 billion investment next year. Switzerland has also agreed to buy more aircraft from Boeing, he adds. The rate on Swiss goods will be reduced from 39%. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets retreated after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for a possible December rate cut (see related item below), with a cluttered data calendar and mounting concerns over an AI-driven market bubble further weighing on sentiment. U.S. equity futures extended the decline from yesterday’s sharp selloff. Dow futures were down 0.17%, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.47%. Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers: Schmid (10:05 a.m. ET), Logan (2:30 p.m. ET) and Bostic (9:20 a.m. ET, 3:20 p.m. ET). If their tone is hawkish towards a December rate cut (as the commentary has been this week from multiple Fed officials) that will further pressure stocks. Chinese economic data was mixed as retail sales (2.9% vs. (E) 2.7%) beat estimates while Industrial Production (4.9% vs. (E) 5.5%) and Fixed Asset Investment
(-1.7% vs. (E) 0.9%) missed expectations. n Asia, Japan -1.8%. Hong Kong -1.9%. China -1%. India +0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London -1.9%. Paris -1.5%. Frankfurt -1.6%.
Meanwhile, oil prices climbed, boosted by supply fears after a Ukrainian drone attack hit an oil depot in a major Russian export hub, the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk (details below). “The intensity of these attacks has increased, it’s much more often. Eventually they could hit something that causes lasting disruption,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 13 | Point Difference from Nov. 12 | % Difference from Nov. 12 |
| Dow | 47,457.22 | -797.60 | -1.65% |
| Nasdaq | 22,870.36 | -536.10 | -2.29% |
| S&P 500 | 6,737.49 | -113.43 | -1.66% |
—Fed officials are increasingly split on whether to deliver a cut in December
With market odds for a cut slipping below 50 %, hawkish voices within the Fed are gaining ground, leaving the next move far from certain.
A fracture in consensus. Heading into the December 9-10 policy meeting, the Fed appears increasingly split. On one side are officials pointing to labor-market softening and growth risks; on the other are hawks warning that inflation remains too high to warrant further easing. Market expectations are shifting accordingly: the implied probability of a rate cut next month has fallen to around 47–49%.
Recently, Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, said she remains “open-minded” about another cut but emphasized the need for more data before committing.
Conversely, Susan Collins of the Boston Fed struck a much firmer tone, saying she sees a “relatively high bar” for additional easing absent meaningful labor market deterioration.
Drivers of the split
• Inflation risk remains elevated. Although recent inflation has shown some moderation, core price pressures — notably in services — are still above the Fed’s target for an extended period. That leaves hawkish officials citing limited room for error.
• Labor market softens — but not uniformly. While private data suggest some hiring weakness, unemployment remains relatively low and there’s no clear wholesale collapse in demand for workers. As the Reuters poll shows, 80% of economists expect a cut, citing labor weakness; yet the Fed’s own internally visible data remain mixed.
• Data “fog” complicates decision-making. The federal government shutdown has delayed or disrupted key economic releases (jobs, inflation, GDP), leaving policymakers with less clarity than usual. This adds to the uncertainty and fuels calls for caution.
Market implications & policy signals. Investor sentiment is adjusting: futures now reflect about a 47% chance of a cut in December — a sharp drop from higher odds just weeks ago. That shift reflects both the hawkish tilt within the Fed and the growing recognition that timing matters. As one market strategist put it, “If we’re debating one more cut now, then how sure can you be about the path in 2026?”
What it means for December. Given the divide, one of two broad outcomes appears likely:
• No cut in December, signaling that the Fed wants to hold steady, assess new data (jobs, inflation, growth), and retain flexibility for 2026.
• A cut, but perhaps hampered by dissents, sending a signal of more accommodation even amid potential inflation risks.
Importantly, the decision will not just reflect whether they move but the nuance of how they communicate it — how strongly they emphasize the inflation side of the mandate versus employment, and how they set expectations for 2026.
Political and trade policy angle. Given the user’s interest in tariff-driven inflation and the policy mix, it’s worth noting that inflation risks from trade and tariffs add another layer of complexity for the Fed. Officials concerned about import-price pressures might lean against further easing until the pass-through effects are clearer.
Outlook:
•Short-term (next few weeks): Watch for key labor market data (non-farm payrolls, unemployment claims) and inflation metrics (services CPI/PCE). Also monitor Fed speeches — any hint of leaning toward “data-dependence” or “wait and see” bears watching.
• Medium-term (2026): Should the Fed hold in December, the starting point for next year may shift: fewer cuts might come, or the pace might slow — validating views like those of the brokerage Nomura that expect a later pace of easing.
Reuters
Bottom Line: The picture of the Fed’s rate path is muddier than markets believed just a month ago. The deepening internal division elevates policy-risk and underscores that December is no sure thing.
| Economic Data Delays and Fed Uncertainty Rattle MarketsInvestors are growing uneasy as key economic indicators remain delayed or disrupted by the long government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release the long-overdue September jobs report next week, offering the first clean signal on hiring trends since early fall. But October labor data will be murkier: Kevin Hassett, a top economic adviser to President Trump, said the October nonfarm payrolls report will eventually be published without an unemployment rate, obscuring how the shutdown affected furloughs and pay disruptions.Inflation readings could be delayed even further. The October and November Consumer Price Index reports may not arrive anytime soon because data collection was likely interrupted during the shutdown. That creates a major blind spot for policymakers. The timing couldn’t be worse for the Federal Reserve. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that lowering rates too soon risks reigniting inflation pressures, urging officials to “tread with caution.” Futures markets now assign roughly 50% odds to a December rate cut — down from nearly 60% a day earlier — contributing to heightened market nerves. Tech stocks led Thursday’s selloff amid valuation worries and concern that massive AI-related spending may be peaking. Tesla, Oracle and Palantir were among the hardest hit.All eyes now turn to Nvidia’s earnings report next week, seen as the pivotal moment that will shape market sentiment around the AI boom. |
—Bond markets bring AI euphoria back to earth
Tech’s massive AI build-out runs into rising borrowing costs and a more cautious credit market
The bond market is flashing its first real warning sign for Big Tech’s AI spending spree. Yields on bonds issued by major hyperscalers — Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle — have widened sharply, with spreads over Treasuries rising to 0.78 percentage points, up from about 0.50 in September. It’s the biggest jump since the Trump tariff shock this spring.
The shift comes even as tech giants prepare for another year of enormous data center and AI infrastructure spending. Meta has raised $57 billion in private and public debt, Alphabet $25 billion, and Oracle $18 billion tied to AI-related leases. Analysts estimate hyperscalers will pour $350–400 billion into data centers in 2026 alone.
Bond investors aren’t convinced the returns will keep pace. Leverage is rising, maturities are lengthening, and the debt markets — not just equity — will need to finance the next phase of the AI boom. As one credit manager told the Financial Times, the market has “woken up” to the scale of the financing challenge.
Some analysts say the repricing is healthy, not alarming — proof investors are finally demanding a risk premium instead of blindly riding the tech wave. But the message is clear: the “grown-ups” in the credit market have arrived, and they’re no longer treating AI as a free-money bet.
—Walmart CEO transition marks end of an era
Doug McMillon steps down; longtime company leader John Furner to take the helm
Walmart announced Friday that Chief Executive Doug McMillon will step down after more than a decade leading the world’s largest retailer, marking a significant leadership shift as the company navigates an increasingly complex consumer and regulatory environment.
John Furner, currently CEO of Walmart U.S., will assume the top job after the close of the company’s fiscal year on Feb. 1, the company said. Furner, 51, has overseen Walmart’s largest division since 2019 and oversees more than 4,600 U.S. stores. A Walmart lifer, he began his career as an hourly associate in 1993 and rose through roles in merchandising, sourcing, and operations. His father also served as a Walmart executive.
McMillon, 59, guided Walmart through a period of rapid modernization, accelerating its pivot toward e-commerce and building out delivery and fulfillment capabilities as Amazon intensified competitive pressure. His departure, long rumored as potential successors emerged internally, comes after he signaled in 2023 he planned to continue for roughly three more years—though the company had not recently indicated a transition was imminent.
Walmart shares slipped roughly 2.5% in premarket trading following the announcement.
—JBS profit drops despite strong sales growth
Historic cattle tightness in the U.S. continues to squeeze margins as Brazil operations shine
JBS, the world’s largest meat company, reported a year-over-year decline in third-quarter net profit even as global net sales climbed, underscoring the impact of a severely constrained U.S. cattle market. Profit fell to $581 million, down from $693 million a year earlier, with the company citing negative U.S. beef margins driven by multiyear-low cattle supplies and elevated livestock prices.
“The industry continues to navigate a challenging cattle cycle, with limited cattle availability for processing,” the company said, noting that historically tight supplies continue to push live cattle prices higher and compress profitability. CEO Gilberto Tomazoni warned the imbalance will not resolve quickly. Adjusted EBITDA slipped to $1.835 billion from $2.153 billion a year earlier. Yet net sales rose 13% to $22.6 billion, with growth recorded across all business segments.
In Brazil, JBS saw robust gains in its beef division, supported by strong export demand, higher domestic meat prices, and increased sales volumes. Tomazoni flagged that Brazil’s cattle herd could tighten slightly in 2026 after an uptick in female slaughter in the second quarter—a sign of herd liquidation.
The company’s Seara processed-foods division posted its highest export volume ever, despite temporary bans from major buyers including China and Europe after a May avian influenza case in Brazil. The restrictions forced JBS to divert certain chicken cuts to alternative markets, putting downward pressure on prices. A stronger Brazilian real further weighed on export competitiveness.
—China’s secretive gold buying fuels record rally
Unreported purchases complicate global bullion forecasting
China is quietly driving the surge in gold prices, with analysts estimating its real purchases far exceed official disclosures, the Financial Times reported. While the People’s Bank of China has reported only about 25 tonnes of gold buying this year, Société Générale and independent researchers believe the true total may be closer to 250 tonnes — and that China may have accumulated more than 1,300 tonnes annually in both 2022 and 2023 through unreported channels.
China’s dominant role as both the world’s largest gold producer and a major consumer allows it to stockpile bullion through opaque domestic routes, frustrating traders who say the lack of transparency makes the market harder to read and heightens volatility. The covert buying is widely seen as part of Beijing’s long-term strategy to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
With China now the single most important — and least transparent — central-bank buyer, gold analysts warn that continued hidden purchases could push prices higher, while any slowdown risks triggering a sharp correction.
| AG MARKETS |
—Soybean prices hit 17-month high amid South American weather risks and renewed Chinese demand
Market rebound lifts expectations, but analysts warn speculative flows — not fundamentals — are driving part of the rally
Soybean futures surged to $421.45 per ton, their highest level in 17 months, as a combination of weather problems in Brazil, renewed Chinese buying, and the return of key U.S. government data ignited a rally in a market that had been mired in historically weak prices.
Planting delays in Brazil — caused by irregular weather — sparked the initial upward move, with traders reacting sharply to signs of tighter early season supply. At the same time, hints of stronger Chinese purchasing interest helped shift sentiment after weeks of demand uncertainty. The imminent release of long-delayed U.S. supply-and-demand reports, with private analysts expecting lower production estimates, added fresh momentum to the rally.
A supportive macro backdrop amplified the rise: a weaker dollar, lower U.S. interest rates, and a stronger Brazilian real improved importers’ purchasing power and lifted agricultural commodities broadly.
But several analysts warn the recovery is not purely driven by fundamentals. The price jump has also attracted speculative funds, which have been rebuilding long positions after a period of neutral exposure. Meanwhile, soybean crushers — especially in China — continue to face negative processing margins, raising questions about how long the market can sustain elevated prices.
With delayed U.S. reports set to be released today at noon ET, traders expect a volatile trading session ahead. Some anticipate the possibility of a short-term pullback unless the data deliver meaningful surprises. For now, global attention remains fixed on South American weather and Asian demand, two variables that will determine whether this is merely a temporary spike or the beginning of a longer-lasting trend.
—Drone strike on Russian Black Sea port lifts wheat to four-month high
Markets weigh potential export disruption at Novorossiysk as analysts warn impact still unclear
Wheat prices surged to a four-month high after a major drone strike hit Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk — one of the country’s most important gateways for grain and oil exports — prompting traders to reassess global supply risks, Bloomberg reported.
Local authorities said a fuel depot at an oil terminal and nearby coastal facilities sustained damage, though it remains uncertain whether grain-handling operations were directly affected. Chicago wheat futures jumped as much as 1% to their highest level since early July before trimming gains.
Novorossiysk “is the main port for Russian grain exports,” said Tobin Gorey of Cornucopia Agri Analytics. If the strike disrupts flows for any substantial period, “merchants are going to have to replace that grain from somewhere else, and that’s not easy to do,” he told Bloomberg.
Others cautioned that markets may be reacting faster than the facts warrant. Swithun Still, director of consultancy Still Grain, said it remains unclear whether grain silos or export infrastructure were hit. “It remains to be seen… whether it will significantly slow exports,” he said, adding that the rally “could be an overreaction,” according to Bloomberg.
The price move also comes as traders brace for the long-delayed USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, due today after the government shutdown postponed its release. Grain markets have been firm all week in anticipation of updated U.S. data: Chicago corn futures are up more than 6%, and soybeans have gained roughly 3%, Bloomberg noted.
—USDA restarts export sales reporting after shutdown pause
Agency to unveil backlog of daily “flash” sales dating from Oct. 1 to Nov. 13
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) on Thursday released the weekly Export Sales report for the period ending Sept. 25 and outlined a schedule that will bring all reporting fully current by early January. The government shutdown halted the normal flow of data, including daily export sales announcements, leaving a significant backlog.
FAS said it has compiled all daily sales reported by exporters from Oct. 1 through Nov. 13 and will publish the full package today (Nov. 14) at noon ET.
The agency also confirmed that any daily sales submitted after 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 13 will be released the next business day at 9 a.m. ET, restoring the standard timetable for USDA’s daily — or “flash” — export sales announcements.
—Cotton LDPs again available. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 51.83 cents per pound, effective today (Nov. 14), down from 53.09 cents per pound the prior week. This means there is a 17 cent LDP available USDA data released following the return of government operations indicated that there have been two prior weeks where LDPs were available – 11 cents the week of Oct. 24 and 36 cents the week of Oct. 17. Producers were able to obtain the LDPs and marketing assistance loans (MALs) during the shutdown due to county FSA offices being open for limited operations.
—Mexico launches plan to boost native corn output 50% by 2030
Six-year program targets small producers, agroecology, and value-added community markets
Mexico unveiled its National Native Corn Plan (PNMN), a six-year strategy to raise native corn production by 50% by 2030 while supporting 1.5 million small producers. President Claudia Sheinbaum said the plan aims to expand acreage, improve yields, and help communities generate value through products like tostadas, chips, and locally run tortilla shops. “Conserving corn is conserving Mexico,” she said.
Rollout in 2026. The program begins in 2026 across seven southeastern and South Pacific states, covering 886,687 hectares and reaching 677,005 producers, with an initial goal of boosting yields by 20% per hectare through technical assistance, agroecological practices, and shared machinery. By 2027, it will expand to 16 states, eventually reaching 1.84 million hectares across 29 states.
Community-based strategy. Food for Well-being Secretary María Luisa Albores said the plan relies on agroecological methods and Community Promoters from the Youth Building the Future program.
A key feature is new women-led cooperatives, supported by INAES, producing tortillas made solely from native corn under the label “Made in Mexico with native corn.” Sheinbaum stressed that preserving native varieties means preserving national identity.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 13 | Difference from Nov. 12 |
| Corn | Dec | 4.41 1/2 | +6 1/4 |
| Soybeans | Jan | 11.47 | +13 1/4 |
| Soybean Meal | Dec | 328.40 | +7.40 |
| Soybean Oil | Dec | 50.25 | -0.37 |
| SRW Wheat | Dec | 5.35 3/4 | -1/4 |
| HRW Wheat | Dec | 5.25 3/4 | +1/4 |
| Spring Wheat | Dec | 5.70 | +1/4 |
| Cotton | Dec | 62.90 | -0.40 |
| Live Cattle | Dec | 219.00 | -6.275 |
| Feeder Cattle | Jan | 318.45 | -9.025 |
| Lean Hogs | Dec | 78.075 | -2.55 |
| SLAUGHTER LINE-SPEED RULES |
—USDA advances new slaughter line-speed rules
Poultry and pork proposals sent to OMB, reviving push for higher plant throughput
USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has sent two long-awaited proposed rules to the Office of Management and Budget for review — one governing poultry line speeds under the New Poultry Inspection System (NPIS) and another covering pork speeds under the New Swine Slaughter Inspection System (NSIS).
Under the poultry proposal, FSIS would amend maximum line-speed regulations to let NPIS chicken and turkey plants “operate at more efficient line speeds.”
The swine proposal goes further, seeking to eliminate line-speed limits entirely for NSIS establishments and allow plants to set their own speeds so long as they can “maintain process control.”
FSIS said it intends to reissue a version of the previously vacated NSIS rule that would remove the current cap of 1,106 head per hour. The agency cited its worker-safety study, which found line speed “is not a leading factor” in musculoskeletal injuries in hog plants.
The administration’s regulatory agenda had aimed for a September release, but timing appears to have slipped amid the 43-day government shutdown. The rules will be published once OMB completes its review.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices inch higher as Russia supply fears rise after Ukrainian drone strike
Brent and WTI rebound about 1% as Novorossiysk attack halts exports and sanctions tighten
Oil prices climbed about 1% on Friday, lifted by renewed supply concerns after a Ukrainian drone attack struck the Russian Black Sea export hub of Novorossiysk — damaging an oil depot, a vessel in port, and nearby apartment blocks, according to Russian officials. The assault injured three crew members and prompted the port to halt oil exports, two industry sources told Reuters.
Brent crude rose 66 cents, 1.05%, to $63.67 a barrel by 0900 GMT, while WTI gained 70 cents, 1.19%, to $59.39. Both benchmarks had initially surged more than 2% in early Asia trading before trimming gains.
The increasing frequency of Ukrainian strikes is sharpening market anxiety: Traders are assessing what the Novorossiysk attack means for Russian supply. The port shipped 3.22 million tonnes of crude in October — roughly 761,000 barrels per day — along with 1.794 million tonnes of oil products.
The rebound follows a sharp drop earlier in the week, when Brent and WTI each fell about 3% after OPEC projected supply and demand would balance in 2026, undermining expectations of tightening market conditions. Both contracts are still on track for weekly losses: Brent down roughly 1% and WTI off 0.6%.
U.S. data also pressured prices. The EIA reported crude inventories rose by 6.4 million barrels last week — more than triple expectations — while gasoline and distillate draws were smaller than forecast.
Investors are closely watching the deepening impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows. New U.S. restrictions will bar transactions with Lukoil and Rosneft after Nov. 21. JPMorgan estimates about 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian oil — nearly a third of Moscow’s seaborne exports — is now sitting in tanker storage as sanctions slow unloading. The bank warned that discharging cargoes will become far more difficult once the Nov. 21 cutoff takes effect.
—Oil prices steadied Thursday after sharp slide as sanctions risks offset surplus concerns
Traders look to Lukoil deadline and U.S. inventory data as market finds support near $60
Oil prices stabilized Thursday after a steep selloff, as traders weighed mounting signals of a global supply surplus against the possibility of short-term export disruptions stemming from new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil.
Brent finished up $0.30 at $63.01 a barrel and WTI gained $0.20 to $58.69, recovering slightly from Wednesday’s 4% drop following OPEC’s projection that global supply will exceed demand in 2026.
Analysts said prices found support near the $60 threshold as markets braced for tighter enforcement of sanctions.
The U.S. Treasury has set Nov. 21 as the deadline for companies to stop transacting with Lukoil, part of Washington’s effort to ratchet up pressure on Moscow over Ukraine.
U.S. government data added to bearish sentiment: crude inventories rose by 6.4 million barrels last week to 427.6 million — well above forecasts — while gasoline and distillate draws came in smaller than expected. The report reinforced concerns about rising domestic output and slowing demand.
OPEC’s latest outlook, pointing to a mild surplus in 2026, and parallel forecasts from the IEA and EIA projecting steady inventory builds through 2026, deepened worries about oversupply.
One counterweight: the reopening of the U.S. government after the record shutdown. Analysts said renewed federal activity may buoy near-term fuel consumption.
—White House moves toward RFS waiver decision
Oil and biofuel groups press cases as Trump administration weighs refinery obligations
The White House is intensifying negotiations with oil refiners and biofuel producers as it nears a long-delayed decision on how to handle billions of gallons of biofuel-blending mandates waived under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Separate meetings this week signal that the administration is preparing to determine whether larger refiners will be required to make up any of the 2.18 billion RINs waived from 2023–2025, a ruling originally expected before the shutdown.
The consultations reflect President Trump’s effort to balance two powerful political blocs: refiners, who argue that federal blending mandates jeopardize refinery jobs, and farm-state interests, who say small-refinery exemptions have undercut demand for corn ethanol and other biofuels.
Of note: The outcome carries implications for fuel prices, farm income, and energy politics heading into the next year.
Discussions also touched on expanding year-round availability of E15 — gasoline containing 15% ethanol — which the administration may bundle with reforms to the small-refinery waiver process to win buy-in from both sides.
The Environmental Protection Agency has now cleared more than 180 backlogged exemption petitions dating to 2016 and proposed a method to account for waived volumes, placing the 2.18 billion-RIN figure at the center of the debate. Biofuel groups insist non-exempt refiners should offset all waived gallons, while refiners warn reallocation would sharply raise compliance costs.
Timing of EPA’s eventual decisions varies depending on the source: Some say in December while others say decisions may be delayed until early in 2026.
—Treasury hits reset on 45Z clean fuel credit rulemaking
Withdrawal of proposed rule signals revisions ahead after OBBBA changes
The Treasury Department has quietly withdrawn its previously drafted notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) for the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, according to an updated posting from the Office of Management and Budget. OMB records show the proposed rule arrived for review on Nov. 13 and was formally withdrawn the same day, with no further explanation provided.
The move effectively resets the regulatory process for implementing the 45Z credit, a key incentive for low-carbon fuel producers. In the Trump administration’s spring regulatory agenda, Treasury acknowledged that earlier IRS notices issued in January 2025 — including draft rules and preliminary emissions-rate tables — were published only to meet a “statutory deadline” and would need to be formalized through full rulemaking.
Since then, Congress modified key elements of 45Z through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), requiring Treasury to revise its draft rule to reflect the new statutory language. Industry expectations have already been tempered: officials have signaled that final 45Z guidance may not be ready until early 2026, a timeline that now appears even more likely following the withdrawal.
For now, OMB’s brief entry offers no additional detail — only that the NPRM has been pulled back for further work, leaving fuel producers and investors waiting longer for clarity on eligibility, emissions methodologies, and credit valuation under the revamped clean-fuel regime.
| U.S./MEXICO TRADE ISSUES |
—Sources continue to signal possible January start for phased U.S./Mexico border reopening
Sheinbaum/Rollins talks highlight livestock trade, water treaty tensions, and Trump’s apparent push to open the border
During USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins’ recent meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexican officials underscored that “reopening the border to livestock exports” remains “a top priority.” Both sides also reaffirmed cooperation on combating screwworm, facilitating agricultural trade, and protecting animal health across North America. (See related item below.)
Behind the scenes, President Donald Trump has reportedly told Rollins that he wants the U.S./Mexico border opened, and it appears USDA is now preparing a phased-in reopening beginning sometime in January, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Rollins said in a post on X that the long-standing 1944 U.S.–Mexico water treaty was a “key topic of discussion” with Sheinbaum. The treaty sets out how the two nations share water from the Rio Grande and Colorado Rivers, but U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly argued that Mexico fails to meet its required deliveries. “While Mexico has begun to meet its commitment to get water flowing, it’s still not enough, and we will continue to work on this incredibly important issue,” Rollins wrote. “I value our friendship with Mexico — but a promise is a promise. It’s time for Mexico to deliver the water our border communities were guaranteed!” Earlier this month, Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-TX) urged the Trump administration to use the upcoming 2026 USMCA review to secure stronger enforcement of Mexico’s water-delivery obligations.
—USDA expands screwworm eradication capacity with new Tampico facility
New aerial-dispersal hub in northeastern Mexico boosts pest-control flexibility as bilateral talks intensify
USDA on Thursday announced the opening of a New World Screwworm (NWS) sterile-fly dispersal facility in Tampico, Mexico, a major operational expansion that will allow aerial releases of sterile flies across northeastern Mexico, including Nuevo León.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the new installation “will ensure flexibility and responsiveness in northern Mexico, giving us a greater ability to drop sterile flies and continue to push the pest south.”
As noted previously, Rollins led a large interagency delegation to Mexico last week, with discussions centered on NWS eradication efforts but also the 1944 U.S.–Mexico water treaty, which remains a sensitive bilateral issue. Rollins added that USDA and its Mexican counterparts are “boosting our efforts and completing a joint review of our screwworm operations in Mexico to ensure our protocols are being followed.”
Expanding aerial coverage. Until now, aerial NWS-fly dispersal was largely limited to southern Mexico. While most recent detections remain in the south, the Tampico hub will allow USDA and Mexican authorities to respond more quickly to any cases elsewhere.
USDA noted there have been no new NWS cases in Nuevo León, and sterile-fly releases continue, with operations transitioning from ground-release chambers to aerial flights in those areas. Aerial delivery is preferred because it ensures more consistent dispersal across wide or difficult-to-reach terrain.
More facilities coming in 2026. USDA said multiple facilities are coming online over the next year:
• A dispersal facility in Metapa, Mexico, expected to open summer 2026
• An additional facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas, operational in early 2026
• Accelerated design and construction of a sterile-fly production facility in southern Texas
The USDA announcement made no mention of any potential reopening of the U.S. border to Mexican cattle, though indications from recent bilateral conversations suggest a phased-in reopening is increasingly likely, with some pointing to early 2026 and New Mexico or Arizona as a possible starting point.
| U.S./SOUTH KOREA TRADE ISSUES |
—South Korea secures major strategic gains in sweeping trade pact with U.S.
Seoul wins tariff relief, green light on nuclear submarines, and flexibility on currency-sensitive investments
The United States and South Korea on Friday unveiled full details of a far-reaching trade and security agreement that cements a $150 billion South Korean investment in the U.S. shipbuilding sector and an additional $200 billion for a broad array of American industrial projects. The joint fact sheet (link) comes two weeks after President Donald Trump and President Lee Jae Myung met in Gyeongju and finalized terms dramatically reshaping the bilateral trade relationship.
President Lee hailed the deal as a long-awaited breakthrough after months of uncertainty triggered by Trump’s tariffs on key U.S. trading partners. “Finally, the South Korea-U.S. trade, commerce, and security negotiations, which were among the biggest variables affecting our economy and security, are concluded,” Lee said, crediting Trump for a “rational decision” that allowed the two sides to reach meaningful agreement.
A $350 billion investment framework — and tariff relief. The non-binding 27-point memorandum of understanding, signed Friday by Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, outlines the structure for South Korean investments that will be approved directly by the U.S. president. Seoul must transfer funds within 45 days after project selection.
The deal gives South Korea sweeping tariff relief: U.S. duties on South Korean autos and other products will fall to 15% from 25%. Semiconductors will receive tariff treatment no less favorable than Taiwan’s, a key concession for Seoul’s export-driven chipmakers.
The agreement caps more than three months of tense negotiations, during which Seoul feared punitive tariffs on autos, chips, and other critical exports.
Washington approves Korean-built nuclear submarines. In one of the most strategically significant elements, the White House fact sheet says the U.S. has approved South Korea’s request to build nuclear-powered submarines. The two countries will work jointly on fuel-sourcing pathways, and Seoul will expand its nuclear-energy capabilities under U.S. cooperation.
Lee’s security adviser said the discussions were held on the “premise” that the submarines will be built in South Korea, while Trump has previously said they would be produced in a Korean-owned shipyard in Philadelphia — signaling the final site remains to be determined.
The U.S. also committed to cooperating with Seoul on enriching uranium and reprocessing spent nuclear fuel, a longstanding South Korean objective.
FX stability carve-out reflects Seoul’s concerns. South Korea secured critical language addressing foreign-exchange stability. The U.S. agreed that the planned $200 billion in cash investments will be deployed in annual tranches no larger than $20 billion to avoid destabilizing the won. Under the deal, if market conditions become volatile, Seoul can request changes to the timing or amount of its investments, and Washington must give “due consideration” in good faith. The provision underscores concerns in Seoul that rapid capital outflows could roil its currency at a sensitive economic moment.
Broader strategic partnership. Lee framed the agreement as a historic opportunity to modernize South Korea’s industrial and security posture, saying Seoul will partner with Washington on shipbuilding, artificial intelligence, and nuclear energy — a reversal of years of U.S. anxiety over supply-chain dependence in these sectors.
Lee, elected five months ago after the political chaos surrounding his predecessor, sought an early diplomatic win by transforming tariff threats into long-term strategic alignment with Washington.
Too early to judge relative gains. Experts say it remains unclear whether South Korea secured a better deal than U.S. partners in Europe or Japan. Some, like former naval officer Kim Dong-yup of Kyungnam University, argue the nuclear-energy and submarine components will require Seoul to absorb much higher defense costs — but that Lee had “an inevitable choice” given the tariff environment.
The two sides first outlined a deal in principle in July, but Friday’s fact sheet marks the most complete blueprint of the new U.S.–South Korea economic and security architecture to date.
| CHINA |
—China industrial output growth hits 14-month low
Manufacturing and mining slow sharply as holiday effects drag overall growth
China’s industrial production cooled to a 4.9% year-on-year increase in October 2025, easing from September’s 6.5% pace and undershooting expectations of 5.5%. It was the slowest gain since August 2024, as the Golden Week holiday and broad-based softening in manufacturing and mining weighed on activity.
Manufacturing output decelerated to 4.9% from 7.3% in September, while mining growth slipped to 4.5% from 6.4%. In contrast, utilities production — electricity, heat, gas and water — accelerated to 5.4% from just 0.6% the prior month.
Even with the slowdown, 29 of 41 major manufacturing industries expanded, led by strong jumps in automotive (16.8%), railway and shipbuilding (15.2%), and computers and communications equipment (8.9%). More modest gains were seen in ferrous and non-ferrous metals, chemical products, coal mining and washing, oil and gas output, food manufacturing, heat production, and textiles.
For the first ten months of 2025, industrial production was up 6.1% from a year earlier. On a monthly basis, output edged 0.17% higher in October.
—China warns Japan of “firm response” over potential Taiwan intervention
Beijing escalates rhetoric after Prime Minister Takaichi signals possible SDF mobilization in a Taiwan contingency
China issued its sharpest warning yet to Tokyo after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Japan could intervene militarily if Beijing uses force against Taiwan — prompting an explicit threat of retaliation from Chinese officials and deepening an already volatile diplomatic standoff.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Thursday that any Japanese “armed intervention” in a Taiwan conflict would be treated as “an act of aggression” and met with a “firm response,” adding that China would invoke its right to self-defense under the U.N. Charter. Hours later, Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong summoned Japan’s ambassador in Beijing, Kenji Kanasugi, delivering an angry protest and warning that “anyone who dares to interfere in China’s reunification cause… will surely be dealt a heavy blow.”
Japan pushed back, with its embassy saying Kanasugi “duly explained” Takaichi’s position and lodged a rebuttal. But relations have deteriorated rapidly since Takaichi acknowledged meeting Taiwan’s representative at the APEC gathering in South Korea — and then told parliament on Nov. 7 that a Chinese naval blockade or use of force could constitute a threat to Japan’s survival, potentially triggering Self-Defense Forces mobilization.
Chinese state media and affiliated social-media accounts reacted with unusual personal vitriol, drawing parallels between Takaichi’s comments and Imperial Japan’s past aggression while unleashing insults reminiscent of the 2022 campaign against Nancy Pelosi. One widely followed CCTV-linked Weibo account accused the prime minister of “spewing feces” and asked whether she had been “kicked in the head by a donkey.”
In Japan, outrage intensified after China’s consul-general in Osaka, Xue Jian, reposted coverage of Takaichi’s remarks and added: “A dirty head that sticks itself out must be chopped off.” Politicians across party lines condemned the comment, and the Japan Innovation Party this week formally proposed designating Xue persona non grata — a move that would force his expulsion. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party submitted a resolution urging the government to consider the step if Beijing fails to deescalate.
Under the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, a host country may declare any diplomat unwelcome, obligating the sending state to recall them. An LDP foreign-affairs panel met Friday to discuss next steps, though panel head Kei Takagi said China “must take full responsibility” for the escalation. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara declined to say whether the government is preparing to expel Xue, but reiterated that Tokyo will “keep demanding a strong response” from Beijing.
| CONGRESS |
—Democrats press for renewed ACA/ObamaCare tax credits as subsidy fight resumes
Party leaders say reopening the government leaves unresolved a looming spike in health-insurance costs
House Democrats vowed Thursday to keep pressing for an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits, arguing that the government’s reopening on Nov. 12 did not resolve what they describe as an imminent affordability crisis. Democratic leaders, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), said the stopgap bill that ended the 43-day shutdown fails to prevent steep premium increases during open enrollment, which began Nov. 1. They accused Republicans of using the shutdown for political leverage while leaving families exposed to rising health-insurance costs.
Republicans countered that Democrats caused the problem by designing the enhanced ACA subsidies to expire at the end of 2025 when they last controlled Congress. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said the GOP backed a plan to lower premiums by more than 12% but that Democrats blocked it in the Senate. He argued that reopening the government had to come first and that broader health-care reforms — not temporary subsidies — are needed.
Jeffries said Democrats will continue pressing for a concrete extension of the credits and will make the issue central to year-end negotiations. While Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has committed to a mid-December vote on the subsidies, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-:a/)has declined to say whether he will bring an extension to the House floor, calling the credits provisions that “rob the taxpayer” and insisting that any debate must include significant reforms.
Democrats warn that without action, families in both rural and urban areas could face sharp cost increases, compounded by earlier Medicaid changes that have already strained coverage and health-care providers. Republicans maintain that the ACA itself is the source of rising premiums and say the reopening should shift the focus to long-term structural changes.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Justice Dept. moves to block California’s new map
Biden administration joins GOP lawsuit targeting Proposition 50’s redrawn districts
The Justice Department filed suit on Nov. 13 to halt California from implementing its new congressional map under Proposition 50, a high-stakes clash that could shape control of the House in 2027. DOJ joined an existing California GOP lawsuit, arguing the ballot initiative violates the 14th and 15th Amendments.
Attorney General Pam Bondi denounced the map as “a brazen power grab that tramples on civil rights,” accusing Gov. Gavin Newsom of prioritizing political maneuvering over public safety. The lawsuit asserts that Proposition 50 improperly used race “as a proxy” to engineer five new Democratic-leaning districts — mirroring Texas’ recent move to add five GOP districts.
The complaint also alleges the redistricting work was done by a consultant paid by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, rather than by state officials. Newsom’s office dismissed the claims outright, with spokesman Brandon Richards predicting the case will fail.
A hearing is scheduled for Nov. 21. Republicans currently hold a narrow 219–214 majority in the House.
—Tom Sell launches bid for Texas’ 19th District
Longtime ag policy expert enters GOP primary after Arrington steps aside
Tom Sell — a Lubbock businessman, agriculture policy veteran and former senior Congressional staffer — officially entered the Republican primary for Texas’ U.S. House District 19 on Thursday, just two days after Rep. Jodey Arrington announced he would not seek a sixth term.
Sell, a fifth-generation West Texan and co-founder of the Combest, Sell & Associates agriculture lobbying firm, previously served as deputy chief of staff for the House Agriculture Committee and helped craft the 2002 Farm Bill during his tenure with former Rep. Larry Combest (R-Tex.). His campaign launch touts both his agricultural policy background and his conservative credentials.
“Our country is in serious trouble right now, with the radical left trying to hijack everything we as Americans have worked so hard to build,” Sell said in a statement. He pledged strong support for President Trump and his America First agenda.
Sell also praised Arrington’s nearly decade of service, highlighting his work on tax policy, border enforcement, military readiness, energy production, spending restraint, and bolstering the Farm Bill and crop insurance programs important to West Texas producers.
Sell and his wife, Kyla, both Texas Tech graduates, continue to live and work in Lubbock.
He enters a growing field for the open seat. Democrat Kyle Rable filed for the Democratic primary when the window opened Nov. 8, and Lubbock County Commissioner Jason Corley has formed an exploratory committee for a potential GOP run. The filing period closes Dec. 8.
Comments: I can’t be totally balanced on this race as I have known and worked with Tom for years. If he gets the slot and wins, there will be few if any lawmakers in Congress who know more about the needs of the U.S. ag sector, both grains, cotton, livestock, specialty crops, sugar and crop insurance. Anyone who knows Tom would describe him as friendly, competitive, but fair and balanced, with a “sun will come up tomorrow” disposition.
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—SNAP benefits set to return nationwide by Monday
Rollins says restored payments will flow quickly, but states must execute the rollout
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Thursday that full SNAP benefits will be restored no later than Monday, Nov. 17, following Congress’ passage of funding legislation that reopened the government after a 43-day shutdown. In an interview with CNN’s Pamela Brown, Rollins said USDA began work “immediately last night” once President Trump signed the bill on Nov. 12, adding that most beneficiaries should see payments by the end of this week. But she emphasized that delivery depends on 50 different state systems, each responsible for pushing out assistance. “That patchwork is what made it so complicated,” she said.
Some states moved even faster. West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrisey announced SNAP was already restored in his state and that all EBT cardholders are “fully funded and able to purchase food.”
The shutdown had jeopardized support for 42 million Americans, as the administration said it could not legally continue SNAP using contingency funds — a dispute that escalated to the Supreme Court. The Court’s Nov. 11 ruling allowed partial reinstatement but temporarily blocked full funding, halting the transfer of tariff revenue into the SNAP contingency fund and triggering fears of rising demand at food banks.
The new funding bill eliminates that immediate threat: USDA is now funded through the end of the fiscal year, guaranteeing SNAP payments even if another shutdown occurs early next year.
Rollins cautioned, however, that deeper problems remain. She reiterated her concerns about program integrity, saying USDA has uncovered nearly 200,000 deceased individuals listed in SNAP data from 29 states. “SNAP is a broken program. SNAP is full of corruption,” she said, adding that 21 states have not yet shared data and that litigation is ongoing.
| TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS |
—Noem awards $10,000 bonuses to TSA staff who worked through shutdown
Homeland Security chief thanks 47,000 officers who kept airports running without pay
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on Thursday awarded $10,000 bonuses to roughly 47,000 Transportation Security Administration officers who continued working through the 43-day federal government shutdown. The payments come on top of full back pay and are intended to recognize the long hours, extra shifts, and financial strain agents endured while keeping airport security operations functioning nationwide.
Announcing the bonuses at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Noem praised TSA officers for “stepping up, taking on extra shifts, showing up each and every day, and serving the American people,” despite weeks without a paycheck. She highlighted several officers for exemplary service, saying they demonstrated “what is special about America” during a period of intense hardship.
Noem emphasized that even agents who missed work or called out sick aren’t necessarily excluded, noting that many were “damaged and harmed” by the shutdown and deserve support. She also credited both public and private partners who assisted TSA staff and helped maintain security operations.
DHS worked late into Wednesday night to complete administrative steps allowing back pay to flow immediately, Noem said. The bonus announcement came shortly after President Donald Trump signed legislation restarting government funding through January, officially ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
Noem also pointed to new TSA initiatives rolling out this year to improve passenger screening, including allowing travelers to keep their shoes on during scans and developing dedicated lanes for veterans, military members, and families.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and debris flows possible
for parts of Southern California today into the weekend… …Widespread well above-normal to record-breaking warmth across the Plains today…. …Damaging winds across portions of the Northern Rockies and High Plains today.
