USDA Projects Smaller Corn Area, Higher Soybean Acres & Crush, Tighter Beef Supplies, and Softer Milk Prices in Early 2026 Outlook
Deere raises 2026 outlook as cost cuts offset soft farm equipment demand | U.S. trade deficit widens sharply in December as imports surge
| LINKS |
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 13
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 13
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Feb. ,19 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— USDA Outlook Forum: Key forecasts for U.S. crops and livestock
USDA’s early 2026 projections point to a mixed ag outlook — fewer corn acres, higher soybean plantings and crush demand, tighter cattle supplies supporting prices, and softer dairy prices as production expands. Export competitiveness and biofuel policy remain key uncertainties shaping the year ahead.
— Deere raises 2026 outlook as cost cuts offset soft farm equipment demand
Deere lifted its profit forecast after aggressive cost controls helped stabilize earnings despite weak large-equipment demand. Management signals the ag machinery cycle may be nearing a bottom, though farmers remain cautious amid low crop margins.
— U.S. trade deficit widens sharply in December as imports surge
The December trade gap expanded well above expectations as imports jumped and exports declined, driven largely by swings in gold and energy flows. Full-year 2025 figures show a historically wide but relatively stable trade imbalance.
— Defense Production Act invoked to secure U.S. glyphosate supply
The Trump administration used DPA authority to protect domestic glyphosate production, framing herbicide supply as a national-security issue. Bayer says the move supports U.S. farmer access without triggering global shortages, while litigation risk remains a major longer-term factor.
— FOMC minutes signal persistent inflation concerns and limited appetite for rate cuts
Fed officials held rates steady and emphasized lingering inflation risks. While some policymakers support eventual cuts, the overall tone remains cautious — with some discussion even acknowledging the possibility of higher rates if inflation stalls.
— Climate groups sue over EPA greenhouse gas repeal
Public health and environmental groups challenged EPA’s move to repeal the 2009 endangerment finding, arguing the agency is legally required to regulate greenhouse gases. The case will likely shape the future of U.S. climate and vehicle emissions policy.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today
U.S. futures are modestly lower as geopolitical tensions — particularly potential U.S.–Iran conflict — lift oil prices and weigh on risk sentiment. Global markets were mixed overnight.
— Equities yesterday
Major U.S. indexes closed higher, led by tech strength, with the Nasdaq up 0.78% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.56%.
— Walmart posts strong quarter as grocery and digital sales drive growth
Walmart reported solid sales gains driven by groceries and a 27% jump in online sales, reinforcing its position as a defensive retail leader even as consumers stay cautious on discretionary spending.
— Whirlpool layoffs spark union backlash in Amana
A planned 341-worker layoff in Iowa has drawn union criticism alleging job migration to Mexico, while Whirlpool says the move reflects modernization efforts and future investment at the facility.
AG MARKETS
— Plains wildfires explode across Oklahoma Panhandle, spread into Kansas
Wind-driven fires burned more than 145,000 acres, prompting emergency declarations and evacuations. Extreme conditions highlight ongoing fire risks for Plains agriculture and livestock producers.
— Agriculture markets yesterday
Grains were mostly higher — led by wheat gains — while livestock futures were mixed. Soybean oil posted strong upward momentum, hitting new highs.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Thursday: Oil prices climb as geopolitical risks drive new supply fears
Crude rose further as markets priced in higher Middle East conflict risks and tightening inventories, adding a strong geopolitical premium to prices.
— Wednesday: Oil prices jump as geopolitical risk premium returns
Oil surged more than 4% as U.S.–Iran tensions and stalled Russia–Ukraine talks reignited supply disruption fears, pushing crude to its highest settlement since late January.
TRADE POLICY
— U.S./Indonesia trade and investment push
More than $7 billion in agreements — including large U.S. grain, cotton, and wheat commitments — signal deeper bilateral economic ties ahead of a broader trade deal between Washington and Jakarta.
— Canada, Mexico launch major trade push ahead of USMCA review
Canada’s large trade mission to Mexico reflects efforts to diversify partnerships and reduce exposure to U.S. tariff uncertainty ahead of the July USMCA review.
— Coalition pushes back on bill seen as reviving de minimis
Labor, industry, and anti-drug groups warn a House proposal could reopen tariff loopholes and weaken customs enforcement, setting up a renewed fight over small-package imports.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Active, high-impact pattern continues
A dynamic winter storm will bring snow and ice from the Plains to the Northeast, severe storms threaten the Midwest and Southeast, heavy rain and mountain snow continue in the West, and critical fire-weather conditions persist across parts of the Southern Plains.
| TOP STORIES — USDA Outlook Forum: Key forecasts for U.S. crops and livestockUSDA projects smaller corn area, higher soybean acres and crush, tighter beef supplies, and softer milk prices in early 2026 outlook USDA released its initial commodity projections at the annual Outlook Forum, providing an early look at expected trends for major U.S. crops and livestock heading into the 2026 season. The estimates — which will be expanded on in individual commodity sessions Friday — outline acreage shifts, production expectations, trade assumptions, and price outlooks across the agricultural economy. Links:https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2026AOF-grains-oilseeds-outlook.pdfhttps://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2026AOF-cotton-outlook.pdfhttps://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2026AOF-livestock-poultry-outlook.pdfhttps://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2026AOF-dairy-outlook.pdfhttps://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2026AOF-sugar-outlook.pdf Corn: USDA projects 94 million planted acres of corn, (98.8 mil. acres for 2025) with 86.1 million harvested acres and a national average yield of 183 bushels per acre, producing an estimated 15.76 billion bushels.• Feed and residual use: 6.0 billion bushels• Ethanol use: 5.6 billion bushels (steady)• Exports: 3.1 billion bushels• Ending stocks: 1.837 billion bushels• Season-average farm price: $4.20 per bushel USDA noted exports are expected to decline slightly as the U.S. loses some global market share amid stronger South American competition and only modest growth in worldwide demand. Planted and harvested acreage assumptions are unchanged from the agency’s 2025 Outlook Forum baseline. Soybeans: Soybean acreage is expected to expand to 85 million planted acres (81.2 mil. acres in 2025), with 84 million harvested acres and a projected yield of 53.0 bushels per acre, resulting in production of 4.450 billion bushels. Expectations for more soybean acres this spring reflect “stronger profitability compared to other crops, along with expected crop rotations across the Corn Belt and the Delta,” USDA said.• Crush: 2.655 billion bushels• Exports: 1.700 billion bushels• Ending stocks: 355 million bushels• Season-average farm price: $10.30 per bushel USDA estimates soybean oil use for biofuel at 17.3 billion pounds, based on proposed Renewable Fuel Standard levels, though the agency cautioned that final EPA rules could materially change that outlook. Wheat: All wheat planted area is forecast at 45 million acres (45.3 mil. acres in 2025) with 36.6 million harvested acres and a national average yield of 50.8 bushels per acre, generating a crop of 1.860 billion bushels.• Feed and residual: 100 million bushels• Food and seed use: 1.028 billion bushels• Exports: 850 million bushels• Ending stocks: 933 million bushels• Season-average farm price: $5.00 per bushel USDA said slightly higher beginning stocks are more than offset by lower production compared with 2025/26, leading to a modest tightening of overall supplies. Rice: USDA did not issue rice projections as part of the Feb. 19 commodity outlook release. Cotton: Cotton acreage is projected at 9.4 million planted acres (9.28 mil. acres in 2025), with 7.63 million harvested acres and an estimated abandonment rate of 18.8%. Yield is forecast at 856 pounds per acre, producing a 13.6 million bale crop.• Exports: 12.2 million bales• Domestic use: 1.6 million bales• Ending stocks: 4.2 million bales• Season-average farm price: 63 cents per pound USDA expects plantings to rise slightly from 2025/26, but notes acreage would still be the second lowest since 2015. Cattle and beef: Beef production in 2026 is forecast to decline slightly as smaller slaughter volumes outweigh higher dressed weights. Beef output fell about 4% in 2025.• Beef exports: down 6% (after a 15% drop in 2025)• Imports: up 3%, driven by continued demand for lean processing beef• 5-area steer price: $240 per cwt USDA expects tight cattle supplies to keep prices elevated. Hogs and pork: Commercial pork production is projected at 28.3 billion pounds, up 3% from 2025.• Exports: up 2%, supported by favorable exchange rates and disease-related disruptions in Europe• National base hog price (51%–52% lean): $69 per cwt USDA noted disease pressure in the U.S. herd affected hog availability, contributing to a modest decline in slaughter numbers despite higher overall production. Broilers: Broiler production is expected to increase 1% from 2025’s estimated 48.0 billion pounds.• Exports: steady at 6.7 billion pounds• National wholesale price: $1.25 per pound Lower feed costs and productivity gains were cited as key drivers supporting continued growth. Dairy: Milk production is projected at 234.5 billion pounds in 2026.• Herd size: up 0.5%• Output per cow: up 0.8%• All-milk price: $18.95 per cwt, down from $21.17 in 2025 USDA expects larger herd numbers and improved efficiency to drive higher output, even as producer prices soften. Bottom Line: The Outlook Forum forecasts point toward a mixed 2026 landscape — smaller corn area and more soybeans, growing soybean processing demand, continued livestock supply tightness in cattle, and lower dairy prices. Many of these assumptions — especially trade flows, biofuel demand, and export competitiveness — will hinge on policy decisions and global market conditions later in the year. — Deere raises 2026 outlook as cost cuts offset soft farm equipment demandHigher profit forecast signals cycle stabilization even as farmers face weak crop economics Deere & Co. raised its full-year earnings outlook after earlier cost-cutting measures helped cushion the impact of slower demand for large agricultural equipment — a key signal for the broader U.S. farm economy. Deere shares were up as much as 5.2% in premarket trading. The stock has rallied 27% this year, reaching a record last week, on increased hopes for a recovery. Stronger earnings outlook despite industry headwinds. The company now expects 2026 net income between $4.5 billion and $5 billion, up from its previous projection of $4.0 billion to $4.75 billion. Management credited operational discipline and cost controls for helping stabilize margins even as farmers delay major machinery purchases due to low crop prices and elevated input costs. First-quarter results also surprised to the upside, with revenue rising to $9.61 billion, compared with $8.50 billion a year earlier — a gain that helped lift shares about 2% in pre-market trading following the announcement. Signs of a cyclical bottom. CEO John May said the company is seeing early signs of stabilization, particularly in construction equipment and smaller agricultural machinery, even as the large-ag segment remains under pressure. He described 2026 as likely marking “the bottom of the current cycle,” suggesting Deere believes demand conditions may begin improving from here. “While the global large agriculture industry continues to experience challenges, we’re encouraged by the ongoing recovery in demand within both the construction and small agriculture segments,” May said in a statement. Still, Deere rival CNH Industrial NV earlier this week took a more cautious stance, saying it will likely be 2027 before machinery sales start climbing again, as growers remain squeezed by low crop prices and relatively high costs for seeds, fertilizer and machinery. Deere is often viewed as a bellwether for global farm profitability: when farmers are confident, equipment purchases rise; when margins tighten, capital spending typically falls. How Deere is managing through the downturn. To navigate weaker demand, the company has:• Reduced factory production levels• Worked closely with dealers to lower inventory• Focused on efficiency and cost reductions implemented earlier in the cycle These steps appear to be helping Deere maintain profitability despite a cautious purchasing environment among farmers. What this means for U.S. agriculture. The updated forecast underscores a mixed picture:• Farm balance sheets remain pressured by soft grain prices and high expenses.• Farmers are extending equipment replacement cycles rather than making big-ticket purchases.• Yet machinery demand may be stabilizing — a potential early indicator that the deepest part of the ag downturn could be passing. For producers and ag lenders, Deere’s guidance suggests that while near-term farm income challenges remain, corporate expectations are shifting from managing decline toward preparing for gradual recovery. — U.S. trade deficit widens sharply in December as imports surgeImports jump while exports decline, pushing monthly gap well above expectations The U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in December 2025, rising to $70.3 billion from $53.0 billion in November — markedly above market expectations for a roughly $55.5 billion shortfall. The expansion reflected a combination of weaker exports and stronger import demand, highlighting continued shifts in global trade flows and domestic consumption patterns. Exports declined 1.7% to $287.3 billion, driven primarily by a sharp drop in nonmonetary gold shipments. Despite the overall decline, several categories showed resilience, including increased exports of semiconductors, pharmaceutical preparations, and travel-related services, suggesting continued strength in high-tech and services sectors. On the import side, imports rose 3.6% to $357.6 billion, fueled by strong demand for computer accessories, nonmonetary gold, copper, telecommunications equipment, transport services, crude oil, and travel. The broader increase indicates firm domestic demand and ongoing supply-chain sourcing from abroad. One notable exception was pharmaceuticals, where imports declined. Looking at the full-year picture, the U.S. posted a 2025 trade deficit of $901.47 billion, essentially flat compared with $903.5 billion in 2024, though still significantly wider than the $774.2 billion deficit recorded in 2023. The data suggest that while trade imbalances remain large, the pace of expansion has stabilized relative to the previous year. Annual totals showed both sides of the ledger growing. Exports reached $3,432.3 billion, up $199.8 billion from 2024, while imports rose to $4,333.8 billion, an increase of $197.8 billion. The near-parallel growth implies that gains in export capacity were largely offset by continued strength in import demand. Bottom Line: December’s sharp widening highlights late-year volatility — particularly in gold and energy-related flows — but the broader 2025 trend points to a trade balance that remains historically wide yet relatively steady compared with recent years. — Defense Production Act invoked to secure U.S. glyphosate supplyBayer says order reinforces farmers’ needs while signaling no global shortages The Trump administration’s decision to invoke the Defense Production Act (DPA) to secure domestic supplies of glyphosate and elemental phosphorus marks a significant escalation in how Washington views key crop-protection inputs — framing them not only as agricultural necessities but also as strategic national-security assets. The executive order, signed Feb. 18, directs USDA to use DPA authorities to prioritize contracts and allocate resources to maintain a stable U.S. supply chain. The White House argues that glyphosate-based herbicides are essential to maintaining U.S. agricultural productivity, citing limited domestic production capacity and the absence of a direct substitute. Bayer’s response: farmer access is central — but no foreign supply squeeze expected. Bayer said the order underscores how critical glyphosate is for U.S. growers and stressed that the move should not create shortages outside the United States. The company remains the only domestic producer of glyphosate, although U.S. agriculture relies heavily on imported generics — particularly from China — to meet overall demand. The company had warned last year that U.S. manufacturing could be at risk without legal and regulatory reforms, citing mounting litigation costs. The new executive order effectively signals federal support for maintaining domestic production capacity — a key reassurance for row-crop producers ahead of planting season. Litigation backdrop remains a major driver. The policy decision comes during a pivotal legal period for Bayer:• Earlier this week, Bayer announced a proposed $7.25 billion settlement to resolve tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging glyphosate caused cancer.• The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case that could significantly limit future liability by determining whether federal pesticide approval preempts state-level warning claims. The administration has supported Bayer’s argument that federal regulatory approvals should supersede conflicting state requirements — an issue that could reshape long-term legal exposure for pesticide manufacturers. Why the White House framed this as national security. The executive order explicitly links herbicide availability to both food security and defense readiness. It states that elemental phosphorus is critical for defense manufacturing and also a core input for glyphosate production, tying agricultural supply chains directly to strategic industrial capacity. Key points from the administration’s rationale:• Glyphosate is described as one of the most widely used crop-protection tools in U.S. agriculture.• The order argues there is no direct “one-for-one” alternative at scale.• The administration warns that supply disruptions could reduce yields, raise food costs, and weaken rural economic stability. Bottom line for U.S. agriculture. For farmers — particularly corn, soybean, and cotton producers — the move is designed to ensure continuity of a foundational weed-management tool during a period of legal and supply-chain uncertainty. Short-term implication: Signals strong federal backing for domestic herbicide production and supply stability. Medium-term implication: The Supreme Court case may ultimately prove more consequential than the DPA order itself, because liability outcomes could determine whether manufacturers remain willing to produce glyphosate domestically. Global implication: Bayer’s statement aims to calm concerns that U.S. prioritization under the DPA would divert supply away from international markets. — FOMC minutes signal persistent inflation concerns and limited appetite for rate cutsFed officials hold steady as elevated inflation keeps policy cautious — and some members even raise the prospect of higher rates if price pressures persist The latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) underscore a Federal Reserve that remains cautious and firmly focused on inflation control, with little sign that policymakers are preparing to cut interest rates in the near term. At the Jan. 28 – 29 meeting, officials voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, reflecting a view that while the economy continues to show solid activity, inflation remains somewhat elevated and still poses a policy risk. Although two members supported lowering rates, the broader committee signaled comfort with the current policy stance after cumulative rate reductions of roughly 75 basis points over the past year — a level viewed by many participants as near the “neutral” range for monetary policy. The minutes suggest a nuanced but cautious outlook. Several policymakers indicated that further rate cuts could become appropriate if inflation continues moving toward the Fed’s 2% target, but others emphasized the need to first see clear evidence that disinflation is firmly back on track. This reinforces a “data-dependent” approach, where officials are reluctant to move prematurely and risk reigniting price pressures. A notable element of the minutes was discussion among several members about including a more “two-sided” policy outlook — meaning rate increases, not just cuts, could be considered if inflation remains above target. This language highlights continued concern that easing policy too soon could undermine the Fed’s credibility or be misinterpreted by markets as reduced commitment to price stability. Overall, the takeaway from the minutes is that inflation remains the dominant policy concern. Even with some dissent in favor of rate cuts, the committee appears comfortable holding rates steady for now, suggesting the Fed is willing to remain patient — and potentially even signal tighter policy — rather than risk actions that could worsen inflation or revive it prematurely. — Climate groups sue over EPA greenhouse gas repealPublic health and environmental coalition challenges Trump administration move to overturn 2009 endangerment finding A coalition of public health and environmental organizations has filed a legal challenge against the Trump administration’s decision to repeal the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 2009 endangerment finding — the core legal determination that allows the agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. Key legal challenge. Seventeen groups — including the American Public Health Association, Earthjustice, the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Union of Concerned Scientists, and Clean Wisconsin — filed suit in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, arguing that EPA is legally obligated to regulate emissions that endanger public health and welfare. The plaintiffs contend that greenhouse gases fall clearly within the Clean Air Act’s definition of air pollutants and that prior court decisions have already settled EPA’s authority to regulate them. Administration’s position. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and President Donald Trump announced the repeal last week, asserting that the Clean Air Act does not grant EPA authority to regulate greenhouse gases, particularly from vehicles. Of note: EPA officials said their review of the law and recent Supreme Court decisions led the agency to conclude the endangerment finding is invalid, arguing that Congress never intended to authorize greenhouse gas rules for cars and trucks. Opponents’ legal argument. Climate and health advocates counter that the agency has long regulated emissions broadly under the Clean Air Act and that the omission of the term “greenhouse gases” in the statute does not limit EPA authority. They cite the 2007 Supreme Court ruling (Massachusetts v. EPA), which held that greenhouse gases qualify as pollutants under the Act — a decision that directly paved the way for the 2009 endangerment finding. Economic and regulatory stakes. The Trump administration argues that repealing the rule will reduce regulatory burdens and save more than $1 trillion, claiming vehicle standards tied to the finding have hurt the auto sector and economy. Opponents dispute that analysis, saying looser fuel-efficiency and emissions standards would increase consumer fuel costs and create significant public health and climate-related economic damages. What happens next. The case is expected to be consolidated with additional lawsuits, including challenges likely to be filed by Democratic state attorneys general. The outcome could determine whether EPA retains long-standing authority to regulate greenhouse gases — a foundational issue for U.S. climate and vehicle emissions policy going forward. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— Equities today: U.S. futures are modestly lower on rising geo-political tensions. Numerous reports overnight stated a U.S. attack on Iran could occur as early as this weekend, which boosted oil prices and weighed modestly on futures. Today will be a busy day of economic data and earnings, besides watching any geopolitical headlines on Iran. In Asia, Japan +0.6%. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India -1.5%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -1%.
— Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Feb. 18 | Point Difference from Feb. 17 | % Difference from Feb. 17 |
| Dow | 49,662.66 | +129.47 | +0.26% |
| Nasdaq | 22,753.63 | +175.25 | +0.78% |
| S&P 500 | 6,881.31 | +38.09 | +0.56% |
— Walmart posts strong quarter as grocery and digital sales drive growth
Comparable U.S. sales rise 4.6% while online demand surges 27%, signaling momentum under new leadership
Walmart reported a strong finish to its fiscal year, fueled by steady grocery demand and a sharp rise in digital sales, highlighting how the retailer continues to capture shoppers looking for value amid cautious consumer spending.
Walmart stock slipped in premarket trading, despite the company reporting strong sales growth.
Key takeaways from the quarter
• U.S. comparable sales — which include stores and digital channels operating at least 12 months — rose 4.6%.
• U.S. digital sales jumped 27%, reflecting ongoing growth in online ordering and delivery.
• Grocery performance helped drive higher profit margins, supported by membership growth in Walmart+ and rising advertising revenue.
• The company continued to gain market share, including among higher-income households, a trend that has helped broaden its customer base. (Note: Financial insecurity among Americans ages 18-54 has pushed Walmart’s grocery penetration to a record 72%, according to Wave 12 of the dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker released Wednesday.)
Walmart’s penetration rose 6 percentage points year over year, marking the largest increase among all retailers.
Consumer behavior: Grocery strength vs. general merchandise softness. Walmart said shoppers remain price-conscious, especially outside food categories. Grocery demand stayed resilient, but general merchandise sales slowed — a pattern that has persisted for several quarters.
• Grocery prices rose less than 1% during the quarter.
• General merchandise prices increased about 3.2%, weighing on discretionary spending.
• Margin gains from food, memberships, and advertising were partly offset by weaker growth in non-grocery categories.
Leadership and strategic positioning. The solid results come as new CEO John Furner steps into the role, inheriting a company that has maintained multi-year sales momentum through shifting consumer behavior and rising online adoption. Walmart’s stock recently passed a $1 trillion valuation, reflecting investor confidence in its growth strategy centered on value pricing, logistics, and digital expansion.
Financial snapshot
• Net sales: $190.7 billion (up 5.6% year-over-year) — slightly above analyst expectations.
• Net income: $4.2 billion — down 19.4% from a year earlier and below forecasts.
• Outlook: Walmart expects 3.5%–4.5% net sales growth and 6%–8% operating income growth for the current year.
Bottom Line: Walmart continues to strengthen its role as a defensive retail winner — leaning on groceries, e-commerce growth, and alternative revenue streams like advertising — even as consumers stay cautious about discretionary spending. The balance between food-driven traffic and softer general merchandise demand will remain a key theme to watch as the company enters its next fiscal year.
— Whirlpool layoffs spark union backlash in Amana
IAM union says jobs are shifting to Mexico — company says cuts are tied to modernization and long-term investment
Whirlpool’s decision to lay off 341 workers at its Middle Amana, Iowa, facility has triggered sharp criticism from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), which argues the company is shifting production to Mexico even as it reduces its U.S. workforce.
Union’s accusation. The IAM contends that Whirlpool is expanding its manufacturing footprint in Mexico while cutting jobs in Iowa, citing:
• A recent expansion of a refrigerator plant in Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila
• A $65 million investment in a facility in Celaya, Guanajuato
• Designation of Mexico as the sole producer of certain French-door refrigerator lines sold back into North America
The union framed the layoffs as another blow to the region — following earlier workforce reductions — and called on Iowa’s congressional delegation and local officials to intervene in support of affected workers.
Whirlpool’s response. Whirlpool says the layoffs are part of a broader strategy to modernize and upgrade the Amana facility, not abandon it. The company emphasized that:
• The plant will continue producing two-door bottom-mount and French-door refrigerators.
• Additional investment is planned over the next several years to expand operations and transition to newer product lines.
Whirlpool remains the only U.S.-based manufacturer of major kitchen and laundry appliances and describes the Amana site as a key piece of its domestic manufacturing network.
Broader tension: modernization vs. offshoring narrative. The disagreement reflects a familiar manufacturing debate:
• Labor’s perspective: job losses are linked to cheaper overseas production and long-term erosion of U.S. industrial employment.
• Company perspective: workforce reductions often accompany automation, product shifts, and facility upgrades intended to keep plants competitive.
Local and political pressure likely to build. Because the Amana facility is one of Iowa County’s largest employers, the layoffs are likely to draw political attention — especially as unions push elected officials to publicly oppose the move and defend local manufacturing jobs.
Bottom Line: Whirlpool frames the layoffs as part of a restructuring and modernization plan tied to future investment in Amana, while the union sees them as evidence of a continued shift of manufacturing capacity to Mexico. The dispute underscores the ongoing tension between global supply-chain strategy and domestic employment concerns in U.S. manufacturing hubs.
| AG MARKETS |
— Plains wildfires explode across Oklahoma Panhandle, spread into Kansas
Wind-driven blaze burns more than 145,000 acres as emergency declarations and evacuations expand
A major wildfire outbreak is tearing across the Oklahoma Panhandle and into southern Kansas, fueled by extremely dry conditions and tropical-storm-strength winds that have created what officials describe as critical fire weather across the region.
The largest blaze — the Ranger Road Fire — has burned roughly 145,000 acres and, as of the latest official updates, had little to no containment, making it one of the most significant Plains wildfire events so far this year.
Rapid spread and extreme weather conditions. Officials say the fire’s explosive growth was driven by a combination of:
• Very low humidity
• Strong, shifting winds approaching tropical-storm intensity
• Dry winter grasses and fuels across the High Plains
The fire reportedly expanded northward from Beaver County, Oklahoma, into Kansas within hours, covering an area roughly comparable to a major U.S. city in size. The Oklahoma Forestry Services warned that the highest fire danger indices remain concentrated over the Panhandle and northwestern parts of the state, meaning additional flare-ups remain possible.
Emergency declarations and evacuations. The escalating threat prompted Kevin Stitt to declare a state of emergency covering multiple counties in northwestern Oklahoma as firefighters struggle to contain several simultaneous fires.
Key developments include:
• State emergency declaration for counties in the Panhandle
• Evacuations in some affected areas
• Additional firefighting task forces deployed
• Reports of firefighter injuries during suppression efforts
State emergency managers estimate that roughly 156,000 acres have burned across multiple fires combined, with the Ranger Road Fire accounting for the vast majority.
Regional agriculture and Plains impacts. For producers across western Oklahoma and southern Kansas, the fires come at a challenging time:
• Dormant grass and wheat stubble create fast-moving fuel sources
• High winds raise risk to livestock, fencing, and infrastructure
• Smoke and highway closures can disrupt transportation corridors
Agricultural outlets also note ranchers across the Plains are on high alert as fire weather is expected to persist.
Why this fire spread so quickly. Fire behavior analysts point to several factors common to High Plains wildfire outbreaks:
• Open terrain allows wind to accelerate fire spread
• Cured winter vegetation burns rapidly
• Wind shifts make containment lines difficult to hold
• Multiple ignition points strain response resources
The Ranger Road Fire reportedly advanced tens of miles in a short time span — an indication of extreme rates of spread under these conditions.
This event underscores how quickly Plains wildfires can become multi-state emergencies when strong winds align with dry fuels. Authorities emphasize that conditions remain dangerous, and fire danger could persist as long as high winds and low humidity continue.
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract month | Closing price Feb. 18 | Difference from Feb. 17 |
| Corn | May | $4.36 3/4 | +1 cent |
| Soybeans | May | $11.49 | +1/4 cent |
| Soybean meal | May | $308.50 | -$2.30 |
| Soybean oil | May | 59.08 | +132 points |
| Wheat (SRW) | May | $5.52 1/2 | +10 cents |
| Wheat (HRW) | May | $5.61 3/4 | +11 1/4 cents |
| Spring wheat | May | $5.85 | +5 cents |
| Cotton | May | 63.76 cents | +12 points |
| Live cattle | April | $242.525 | -27 1/2 cents |
| Feeder cattle | March | $370.575 | -40 cents |
| Lean hogs | April | $92.55 | +25 cents |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Thursday: Oil prices climb as geopolitical risks drive new supply fears
Rising U.S./Iran tensions and tighter inventories push crude toward multi-month highs
Oil prices moved higher Thursday as markets reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, alongside tightening supply signals and renewed risk pricing in global energy markets.
Geopolitical risk premium returns to the market. Brent crude rose about 1.3% to roughly $71 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed near $66, extending gains after both benchmarks surged more than 4% in the prior session. Traders increasingly priced in the possibility of supply disruptions amid heightened military activity in the Middle East.
Analysts say the market is rebuilding a geopolitical risk premium — essentially higher prices reflecting concern that conflict could interrupt oil flows — particularly as tensions rise near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through the waterway, meaning any disruption can quickly ripple through global prices.
Hormuz concerns amplify market sensitivity. Iranian state media reported a temporary shutdown of the Strait earlier in the week, adding to market anxiety, even though the status of the waterway’s operations remained unclear. At the same time, reports of planned Iranian rocket launches and increased U.S. naval deployments contributed to fears that diplomatic efforts could give way to military escalation.
Diplomacy still in play — but uncertainty remains. While talks in Geneva reportedly made some progress, U.S. officials said major issues remain unresolved, and negotiations are expected to continue in coming weeks. The mixed signals — partial diplomatic progress paired with military posturing — are creating volatility as markets weigh two sharply different outcomes:
• Successful diplomacy: potential easing of sanctions risk and softer prices
• Escalation or strikes: potential supply shock and further price upside
Inventories add a bullish signal. Supporting prices further, industry data suggested U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell last week — a surprise relative to expectations that crude stocks would increase. Lower inventories imply tighter near-term supply conditions, reinforcing the upward move in prices ahead of official government data.
Market takeaway. Oil markets are currently being driven less by traditional supply-demand fundamentals and more by geopolitical headlines. With military activity rising and diplomacy unresolved, traders are positioning for a wider range of outcomes — keeping volatility elevated and prices biased higher in the short term.
— Wednesday: Oil prices jump as geopolitical risk premium returns
U.S./Iran tensions and stalled Russia/Ukraine diplomacy drive strongest crude rally in weeks
Oil prices surged more than 4% Wednesday as traders rapidly repriced geopolitical risk following renewed tension surrounding U.S./Iran relations and a breakdown in Russia/Ukraine peace talks.
Brent crude climbed $2.93 (4.35%) to settle at $70.35 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $2.86 (4.59%) to $65.19 — both marking their highest closing levels since Jan. 30 after rebounding sharply from recent two-week lows. U.S. heating oil futures also rose roughly 5%, reflecting broader energy-market strength.
The move accelerated late in the session after reports suggested Israel had heightened military alert levels amid indications of potential U.S. or Israeli action targeting Iran. Traders said crude prices were reacting directly to geopolitical headlines rather than traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals, restoring a sizable risk premium that had faded earlier in the week.
Regional developments added to market anxiety. Iranian media reported planned joint naval drills with Russia in the Sea of Oman and northern Indian Ocean, while Tehran previously conducted exercises that temporarily disrupted activity near the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint handling about 20% of global oil consumption. Market participants are also closely monitoring the movement of U.S. military assets in the region as a signal of possible escalation.
Meanwhile, U.S.-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva ended without a breakthrough. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said negotiations were difficult and accused Moscow of delaying progress. A prolonged diplomatic stalemate could tighten enforcement pressure on Russian oil exports, a scenario widely seen as supportive for prices given Russia’s role as one of the world’s largest crude suppliers.
Despite the sharp rally, analysts note that near-term fundamentals remain less supportive. Traders are awaiting fresh U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration, with expectations for a rise in crude stockpiles. For now, however, market direction appears firmly driven by geopolitics rather than inventory or demand signals — a dynamic that could keep volatility elevated in coming sessions.
| TRADE POLICY |
— U.S./Indonesia trade and investment push
$7 billion in agreements highlight agricultural exports, minerals cooperation, and energy collaboration as leaders prepare to finalize a broader trade pact
U.S. and Indonesian companies signed more than $7 billion in trade and investment agreements, according to the U.S./ASEAN Business Council, in a major commercial package designed to deepen bilateral economic ties ahead of an expected government-to-government trade deal between President Donald Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Washington.
Agriculture at the center of the agreements. A significant share of the deals focuses on U.S. commodity exports, reinforcing Indonesia’s role as an expanding market for American farm products. Commitments include the purchase of:
• 1 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans
• 1.6 MMT of U.S. corn
• 93,000 metric tons of U.S. cotton
• 1 MMT of U.S. wheat in 2026, with potential purchases rising to up to 5 MMT by 2030
No formal purchase timeline was specified for soybeans, corn, or cotton, but the scale signals strong medium-term demand and could provide support for U.S. grain and oilseed exporters as global competition intensifies.
Critical minerals and energy cooperation broaden the scope. Beyond agriculture, the package includes a memorandum of understanding between Freeport McMoRan and Indonesia’s Ministry of Investment aimed at cooperation on critical minerals — an area of growing strategic importance for both countries as supply chains for energy transition materials become more competitive. Additional agreements related to oilfield recovery cooperation were also signed, reflecting shared interests in maintaining energy production and technical collaboration.
Strategic context. The signing ceremony took place during a dinner hosted by the U.S./ASEAN Business Council for President Prabowo while he is visiting the United States. The commercial deals are widely viewed as laying groundwork for a broader bilateral trade understanding expected to be signed in Washington, signaling an effort by both governments to deepen economic ties through agriculture, energy, and minerals.
Why it matters.
• For U.S. agriculture, the agreements represent a sizable export opportunity across multiple commodities.
• For Indonesia, the deals help secure food and feed supplies while attracting investment and technology partnerships.
• For policymakers, the focus on critical minerals and energy cooperation aligns with broader geopolitical efforts to diversify supply chains and strengthen strategic partnerships in Southeast Asia.
— Canada, Mexico launch major trade push ahead of USMCA review
Ottawa says mission reflects tariff pressure and aims to deepen North American economic ties beyond the U.S.
Canada’s minister responsible for U.S. trade, Dominic LeBlanc, is leading one of the country’s largest-ever trade missions to Mexico as Ottawa moves to diversify trade partnerships amid mounting pressure from the Trump administration’s tariff policies and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming USMCA review.
The delegation — more than 370 representatives from over 240 organizations — is focused on strengthening commercial relationships and exploring new investment opportunities. The mission targets sectors including advanced manufacturing, agriculture and ag technology, clean energy, infrastructure, and information technology, underscoring a broad effort to expand economic cooperation beyond traditional U.S.-centered trade channels.
Joint action plan aimed at deeper integration. Following meetings in Mexico City, Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard and LeBlanc announced plans for a joint economic “action plan,” set to launch later this year. The initiative will seek to:
• Expand bilateral investment and trade flows
• Reduce regulatory barriers between the two countries
• Improve supply-chain resilience and security
• Promote cooperation on minerals, ports, and infrastructure
Mexican officials framed the effort as an opportunity arising from global economic uncertainty, stressing that closer Canada–Mexico collaboration could buffer both economies against external shocks.
USMCA review and tariff tensions driving urgency. The timing of the mission is notable. The first formal review of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) is scheduled for July, and recent negotiations have been described as “challenging” by U.S. officials. Canadian leaders have increasingly signaled concern that tariffs and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration are discouraging business investment and slowing economic growth.
LeBlanc acknowledged that pressure from Washington is a key motivation behind the initiative, saying Canada views Mexico as a reliable partner and sees an opportunity to offset headwinds created by U.S. trade policies.
Business leaders seek alternatives amid uncertainty. Industry participants on the mission emphasized that uncertainty surrounding the future of the trade pact is already having economic consequences. Business investment in Canada has softened as companies hesitate to commit capital without clarity on future trade rules.
Executives accompanying the delegation said the trade mission is designed to create options — building new supply-chain and investment pathways so firms are less exposed to potential disruptions tied to U.S. policy changes.
Strategic signal for North American trade. The mission highlights a broader North American recalibration: while the U.S. remains Canada’s dominant trading partner, Ottawa and Mexico City are signaling interest in strengthening bilateral ties and developing new growth corridors in manufacturing, agriculture, clean energy, and technology — sectors likely to play a larger role as the USMCA review approaches.
Overall, the visit illustrates how tariff pressure and geopolitical uncertainty are reshaping North American economic strategy, pushing Canada and Mexico to deepen cooperation even as they prepare for potentially difficult trade negotiations with Washington.
— Coalition pushes back on bill seen as reviving de minimis
Labor, industry, and anti-drug groups warn proposed tariff changes could reopen loopholes for duty avoidance and illicit imports
A broad coalition of labor unions, industry groups, law-enforcement advocates, and textile manufacturers is urging House leadership to oppose legislation they argue would effectively restore the controversial de minimis tariff exemption — a program that was repealed in 2025 amid concerns over trade enforcement and narcotics trafficking.
In a Feb. 18 letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the “Coalition to Close the De Minimis Loophole” — representing 25 organizations — argued that the proposed HR 7224, the Secure Revenue Clearance Channel Act, risks reviving the very problems lawmakers sought to eliminate when the exemption ended.
Key concerns raised by opponents
• Potential return of tariff avoidance: The coalition says the bill could allow importers to once again bypass tariffs on low-value shipments, describing it as “jumpstarting new tariff dodging.”
• Smuggling and enforcement risks: Critics argue that easing entry requirements for small packages would weaken customs oversight, increasing risks tied to fentanyl and other illicit goods entering the U.S.
• Insufficient safeguards: Although the proposal lowers the duty-free threshold from $800 to $600 and excludes goods subject to antidumping, countervailing duties, tariff-rate quotas, and certain federal fees, opponents say the restrictions would still leave loopholes.
What the bill would do. Introduced by Ways & Means trade panel members Rep. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) and Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), the legislation would establish a new framework allowing qualifying shipments valued up to $600 to enter the U.S. without triggering most tariffs — effectively creating a narrower replacement for the prior de minimis structure.
Supporters argue that the approach would streamline low-value trade while maintaining stronger guardrails than the former system.
Why the issue is politically sensitive. The dispute comes after two major actions in 2025 that ended de minimis:
• Congress inserted a 2027 sunset into reconciliation legislation.
• President Donald Trump later issued an executive order terminating the program effective Aug. 29, 2025, citing deceptive shipping practices, duty circumvention, and narcotics concerns.
Opponents of HR 7224 argue that any new exemption would undo that effort and weaken recent enforcement gains.
Textile sector alignment. The National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO) — part of the coalition — separately urged congressional leaders earlier in February to reject the bill, arguing it would harm U.S. manufacturing jobs while increasing risks tied to illicit imports.
Bottom Line: The fight over HR 7224 highlights the tension between trade facilitation and enforcement priorities. Supporters see the proposal as a more controlled pathway for low-value imports, while critics frame it as reopening a loophole tied to tariff evasion and drug-smuggling risks — setting up another politically charged trade debate as lawmakers revisit how the U.S. handles small-package imports.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Very active weather pattern across much of the Lower 48 over the next few days… …A dynamic winter storm will spread snow, ice and sleet impacts from Northern/Central Plains today to Great Lakes and Northeast beginning tonight; severe storm potential in Midwest today followed by Southeast on Friday… …Active West coast pattern continues with additional heavy low elevation rain across California and additional heavy snow through the Sierra… …Much above average temperature likely for much of the eastern half of the country, while below average temperatures slowly spread from West into Northern/Central Great Plains… …An elevated to critical fire weather threat will continue across the Southern Plains.
