USDA Reorganization Draws Overwhelmingly Negative Reviews
India pushes back on U.S. basmati dumping claims | Naysayers describe Trump/Rollins farmer aid a ‘bridge to nowhere”
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 13
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 13
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Dec. 15, 2025
UP FRONT SUMMARY— USDA reorg backlash: Public comments and stakeholder feedback are overwhelmingly negative, warning that forced relocations and office consolidations could drain expertise, weaken farmer-facing services (FSA/NRCS/Rural Development), and disrupt USDA research and Forest Service operations.— India on basmati “dumping” claims: New Delhi disputes the allegation, saying U.S.-bound basmati is premium-priced and noting there’s no U.S. anti-dumping case underway, while broader WTO fights over subsidies/stockholding remain separate.— Farmer Bridge Assistance ($12B): New aid for the 2025 crop helps liquidity but covers only a fraction of estimated producer losses; details (rates) are pending, prevent-plant acres are excluded, payment/AGI limits differ from ECAP, and more aid pressure is building — especially for specialty crops.—FT on trade blowback for farmers: A Financial Times column argues Trump’s tariff strategy leaves agriculture as collateral damage—raising input costs while China diversifies away from U.S. supply—eroding U.S. leverage and farm-sector stability.— Texas convenes New World screwworm talks: State officials brought Latin American ag and public-health leaders together to tighten cross-border surveillance and response plans to prevent the pest from moving north and threatening livestock and trade flows.— USTR Phase One review: USTR holds a Dec. 16 hearing to assess China’s compliance; consensus is Beijing fell short on ag purchase commitments, with mixed views on how fully it implemented policy reforms.— USDA refined sugar import review: USDA launched an OBBBA-required RFI to inform a study on whether refined sugar import terms should be modified and what impacts changes could have across the domestic sugar sector; comments due Jan. 14, 2026.— Equities/markets snapshot: Global stocks are firmer (Europe higher; U.S. futures up), with attention on central banks/data and Fed-chair succession chatter; gold is near records and copper rebounded after a sharp drop.— Global data deluge (week ahead): Heavy slates in Asia/Europe/U.S. will steer growth/inflation and rate expectations—China activity data, Japan/BoJ, ECB, UK inflation/labor, and a U.S. jobs report potentially distorted by the shutdown.— Drury outlook for 2026: Michael Drury says Fed policy is effectively “locked,” immigration shifts lower potential growth, fiscal/tariff refund dynamics matter, and China’s near-$1T surplus reflects a durable state-led export model unlikely to rebalance without coordinated global action.—USDA daily export sales: • 150,320 MT corn to unknown destinations, 2025/2026 MY • 136,000 MT soybeans to China, 2025/2026 marketing year— USDA weekly export sales: Weekly data showed sizable 2025/26 sales to China, notably soybeans and wheat (plus cotton), reinforcing ongoing demand signals despite broader trade uncertainty.— Hedge funds into commodities: The FT reports hedge funds are expanding commodities desks to capture volatility driven by geopolitics, climate shocks, and energy-transition dynamics — and for diversification versus crowded equity trades.— Brazil soy: record trajectory, climate risks: Brazil’s 2025/26 crop is still projected at record levels (Conab slightly trimmed but remains huge), with planting/weather variability a watch item and large supplies pressuring global prices and U.S. competitiveness.— Brazil exporters see calmer 2026: Brazilian shippers expect “business as usual” as U.S./China tensions ease, with exports forecast higher and China still heavily reliant on Brazil due to price advantage and structural sourcing shifts.— Bird flu in Wisconsin dairy: A second recent HPAI detection in cattle underscores spillover risk; officials stress pasteurized milk safety, sequencing is underway, and lawmakers/industry are pushing USDA to accelerate vaccines.— Oil: Crude is steady as the market weighs geopolitical supply risks against oversupply expectations and potential Russia-Ukraine de-escalation.— EPA “half-RIN” study: A USB/WAEES-funded analysis argues awarding only half RIN credit to imported biofuels/feedstocks best supports U.S. soybean oil demand and farm income while preserving biodiesel feedstock flexibility.— USMCA dairy push: A bipartisan House group urges USTR Greer to use the 2026 review to force improved Canadian dairy access and enforceable commitments, citing continued TRQ and milk-solids disputes.— JEC Minority on tariff costs: Democrats estimate tariffs have cost families about $1,200 on average in 10 months and warn the burden could run roughly $2,100 annually if collections stay near November’s pace.— China November slowdown: Retail sales, industrial output, and investment all missed expectations as the property slump drags on; analysts say stronger support may be needed to lift consumption despite export strength.— China 2026 trade/consumption push: Officials signal efforts to expand imports/exports while loosening consumption constraints and boosting incomes/tourism, amid international pressure over the massive surplus.— GOP smaller “affordability” bill talk: Republicans debate a narrower follow-on package (health care/costs), but leadership is tempering expectations and intraparty agreement remains shaky.— Trump on midterm politics: Trump tells WSJ he’s unsure economic gains will translate politically soon enough, as Democrats plan to campaign on cost-of-living and tariffs face Supreme Court scrutiny.— Food industry sues Texas over ingredient warnings: Major trade groups and brands challenge a MAHA-aligned labeling law as misleading, unconstitutional compelled speech and conflicting with federal standards—setting up a high-stakes preemption fight.— Jack Link’s profile: A Forbes feature traces how the family turned a post-bankruptcy pivot into the world’s largest jerky business, with ambitions to keep expanding.— Weather: Heavy rain/winds in the Northwest, lake-effect snow tapering, warmer-than-average temps spreading west-to-central U.S. while Arctic cold lingers in the East (near term). TOP STORIES—USDA reorganization draws overwhelmingly negative reviews from workforce and stakeholdersEmployees, unions, lawmakers and local governments warn of brain drain, weakened farmer services and loss of regional expertise USDA received overwhelmingly negative feedback on its proposed reorganization plan, with employees, unions, lawmakers and local governments warning that large-scale relocations and office consolidations could hollow out institutional expertise and disrupt services critical to farmers. USDA disclosed that 82% of substantive public comments expressed opposition to the plan, compared with just 5% that were supportive, according to the department’s internal analysis summarized by Government Executive. USDA is proposing to relocate roughly 2,600 Washington-area employees — out of a workforce in which only about 10% are currently based in the capital—and consolidate dozens of offices into five new regional hubs in Raleigh, North Carolina; Kansas City, Missouri; Indianapolis; Fort Collins, Colorado; and Salt Lake City, Utah. The plan would also eliminate or merge existing regional offices and centralize support functions, raising alarms about reduced operational capacity and weakened local engagement. Commenters repeatedly warned that forced relocations could trigger resignations or layoffs if employees refuse to move, leading to a “brain drain” that would undermine program delivery. Stakeholders cited risks to Farm Service Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service and Rural Development operations, arguing that fewer experienced staff and less local presence would delay services and weaken responsiveness to producers. Concerns were also raised about insufficient transparency and limited stakeholder consultation during the planning process, Government Executive reported. Research capacity emerged as a major flashpoint. Plans affecting facilities such as the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center in Maryland prompted fears that scientific output, food security and USDA’s long-term research mission could be compromised. Similar warnings came regarding the U.S. Forest Service, where commenters said the elimination of regional offices and most research stations would reduce public access to lands, damage morale and impair the agency’s effectiveness. Employee unions were among the most critical voices, pointing to USDA’s 2019 office relocations to Kansas City that resulted in the loss of more than half of affected staff and sharp productivity declines. Unions also faulted the department for failing to conduct cost-benefit or operational impact analyses and for not clearly explaining why the five hub locations were chosen. Without such justification, unions argued, the plan appears “arbitrary and politically motivated,” according to USDA’s summary cited by Government Executive. Bipartisan lawmakers in both chambers echoed those concerns, warning of potential losses to the nation’s “scientific edge” and diminished local input. They urged USDA to keep key research labs open, hold public hearings and ensure continuity of services. Appropriators also cautioned the department not to assume future funding outcomes, reminding USDA that Congress controls funding levels and that statutory authority is required to shift funds between accounts. Despite the backlash, the Trump administration is moving ahead. USDA employees told Government Executive that the reorganization is proceeding “full steam ahead,” with changes expected to begin this summer. Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden has said relocations will be completed by the end of 2026. For now, USDA appears committed to its restructuring even as employees, farmers and lawmakers warn that the costs — to expertise, local service delivery and public trust — could outweigh the promised efficiencies. —India pushes back on U.S. basmati dumping claimsNew Delhi says premium pricing and lack of U.S. action undercut allegations of unfair trade India is rejecting claims that it is dumping basmati rice on the U.S. market, disputing recent statements by President Donald Trump and a U.S. rice producer. Trade Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India’s basmati exports to the United States consist of premium-grade rice that typically sells at higher prices than other varieties, undercutting the notion that shipments are being sold below fair value. “We don’t see a prima facie case of dumping, and as far as we know, the U.S. has not started any anti-dumping investigation either,” Agrawal said at a news conference. While the United States has previously challenged India’s rice subsidies and public stockholding policies at the World Trade Organization, those disputes remain unresolved. Indian officials argue that those broader policy disagreements are separate from current basmati trade flows and do not support claims of dumping in the U.S. market.—$12 billion farmer aid package, while helpful, falls well short Additional aid likely ahead from administration and/or Congress President Trump and USDA Secretary Rollins announced the creation of the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program on Dec. 8, a new round of economic assistance totaling $12 billion for the 2025 crop, with $11 billion for row crop farmers and what is considered to be an insufficient $1 billion for specialty crops, including sugar. While individual commodity payment rates have not been made available (coming week of Dec. 22), it was announced that the structure of FBA would be like the $10 billion Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) that producers received earlier this year due to low commodity prices received for the 2024 crop. The ECAP program provided assistance based on a producer’s planted acres of eligible commodities and 50% of acres that were prevented from being planted. According to USDA, acres that were prevented from being planted will not be eligible for FBA. Payments are expected to be released by Feb. 28, 2026. Of note: Payment limits would be different from ECAP. Payment limits will be $155,000 per person or legal entity, and the AGI limits will be $900,000. In ECAP, producers could double their limit if 75% of their AGI was from farming. The new assistance does not have this provision. Southern Ag Today notes: “The last two years have been terrible financial years for most crop farmers across the United States. While producers will be grateful for the assistance, their estimated losses for the 2025 crop exceed $40 billion. The previous ECAP program paid 26% of losses to producers for the 2024 crop. Based on the estimates of loss for the 2025 crop, it appears the newly announced program will likely cover a similar portion of producer losses.” The payments will allow lenders to include the amount of the assistance in producer’s loan packages which should help those producers who are trying to secure operating loans for the 2026 crop year. This is the so-called “bridge” to 2026 that proponents of the package explain as why the aid is needed. But some naysayers to the aid program call it a “bridge to nowhere.” Farm policy updates and perspectiveThe following are updates included in a Saturday dispatch:• There will very likely be a top up payment for both SDRP Stage 1 and Stage 2 of 30% to 35% but it will not come until after the April 30 signup deadline for Stage 2. •Some county FSA offices still not paying SDRP payments. Here is an email I received: “I am in Jasper County Missouri, and we have not received ours. We have visited with our local FSA personnel, and they tell us the money is approved and setting in an account, but it’s not being released. We know several of the other farmers in our area have not received their payment either. Any help you could provide on this matter would be greatly appreciated.” I am passing along this and other information to USDA, which has helped in other cases. • Stage 2 SDRP Enrollment advances as prevent plant rule draws sharp opposition. Producers are being urged to comment by Jan. 27 amid concerns over payment calculations and loss of buy-up coverage. Sign-up for Stage 2 of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) is ongoing, with enrollment open through April 30, 2026. Stage 2 builds on Stage 1 by targeting “shallow losses” not covered by crop insurance, as well as quality losses incurred in calendar years 2023 and 2024. As applications move forward, producers and farm groups are raising significant concerns about USDA’s decision not to incorporate the RMA Fall Price into Stage 2 payment calculations. That change marks a clear departure from Stage 1, which aligned revenue-loss coverage with producers’ underlying crop insurance policies. The omission has led to substantially reduced payments — and in some cases no payments at all — for many producers. Stakeholders say they are actively engaging USDA and Capitol Hill to address the issue. At the same time, alarm is growing over proposed changes to Prevented Planting (PP), specifically the elimination of the +5% buy-up coverage. Farm groups warn the move would significantly weaken risk protection and impose real financial harm on farm and ranch families nationwide. Producers and organizations are being strongly encouraged to submit formal comments opposing the Prevent Plant changes. While stakeholders are pursuing both legislative and administrative fixes, administrative action would not take effect until after June, leaving the regulation in force during the critical interim period. As a result, advocates say a legislative solution is the preferred path to prevent near-term harm. • USDA is getting a lot of questions about why sugar is included in specialty crops. USDA analysis shows sugar producers losing lots of money, with many sugar beet growers losing $300 to $400 an acre, with some beginning producers losing $700 to $800 an acre. • Specialty crop producers, farm-state lawmakers and lobbyists agree on one thing: The $1 billion held back in farmer bridge assistance will not be nearly enough for the sector. Both the Trump administration and/or Congress will have to respond eventually. • Soybean growers worry that the recent downturn in bean prices will not be adequately reflected in the coming payment rate for the farmer bridge assistance (FBA) program. • Prevent-plant acres are NOT included in 2025 acres paid under the FBA. • Some farmers continue to say their FSA offices are understaffed and worry that coming payment will be delayed. • The FBA payments are funded by USDA tapping the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) and do not come from trade tariff funds, despite President Donald Trump saying so during this week’s farmer aid roundtable. • Some farmers fret that consistent multibillion-dollar economic and disaster aid is conditioning the U.S. farm sector for counting on such aid ahead. Some farmers fear a potential Washington policy backlash as other groups ask the White House why their sector is not being aided, despite similar price and trade share downturns. • The $10 billion FBA aid for row-crop producers is a lot of money but falls well short of the funding level others pushed for within the Trump administration ($20 billion). And even a higher funding level would not come close to making farmers whole, which should never be a goal of any government program. • Trump administration analysis shows economic losses of farmers for just major crops total around $46 billion. • Trump administration official says to ask Democrats who complain about the FBA program what they would do and if it is trade, why Biden did not get one new trade agreement during his administration. If it is farmer aid, how much and where the funding would come from. • Congressional farmer aid push ahead. House Ag Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) confirmed what many thought was likely later this year into January 2026 — that farm-state lawmakers would push for a $10 billion or more additional farmer aid package as part of a must-have spending measure. But some conservative Republicans are already balking at such a maneuver, which means Thompson and other farm-state lawmakers will likely need support from some Democrats. • Clearly a big Trump administration mistake was the multibillion bond swap offer to Argentina, which was followed by that country getting rid of its export taxes and China quickly buying $7 billion worth of Argentine soybeans, right during the timeslot China was expected to purchase U.S. soybeans. The issue shows how geopolitics sometimes gets involved with farm policy because President Trump and others in his administration wanted to improve the odds that Argentine President Javier Gerardo Milei would win his-re-election, which he did. U.S. financial support appears to have played a significant political role. Recall that the U.S. arranged a large financial support package. In October 2025, the U.S. agreed to a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina to help stabilize the peso and shore up reserves amid sharp market volatility. The timing of U.S. support — including the swap and backing from Trump — helped bolster investor confidence and give a political lifeline before the vote, which likely improved Milei’s political position going into the election. Several sources characterize the U.S. intervention as not just economic but politically consequential — with Trump’s endorsement and conditional aid seen as aimed at helping Milei and his coalition retain power. • Midwest Dry Bean Coalition (MDBC) takes farm concerns to Washington; fly-in highlights financial stress, calls for commodity purchases, export momentum, and nutrition recognition. Members of the Midwest Dry Bean Coalition (MDBC) traveled to Washington, D.C., this week for a three-day fly-in aimed at pressing lawmakers, congressional staff, and Trump administration officials on the growing economic strain facing the dry edible bean sector. Representing farm families, processors, dealers, and factory workers across the Midwest, coalition members underscored the severe financial pressures confronting producers, driven by depressed prices, elevated input costs, stalled export demand, mounting per-acre losses, and historically high stocks-to-use ratios that continue to weigh on the market. During meetings, MDBC participants urged policymakers to pursue meaningful relief measures, including increased government purchases to move excess supplies, initiatives to boost domestic consumption, and actions to restart and expand export opportunities. The coalition also emphasized the nutritional value of dry edible beans, calling for their proper recognition and prioritization in forthcoming federal Dietary Guidelines, arguing that stronger policy alignment could support both public health goals and market demand for U.S.-grown beans.Of note: Dry bean producers are suffering around $175 per acre losses, with 50% stocks-to-use ratio. Farmers are sitting on two years of crops. No contracts. Nothing moving. Brazil reportedly has taken advantage of U.S. and China situation to steel 15% of U.S. market in Mexico, along with Argentina. Favorable currency, freight, etc. Meanwhile, Mexico is trying to augment its production by 30% in six years. Sources say this is ripe for consideration in USMCA renewal and Brazil Section 301 case. —Farmers caught in the crossfire as Trump’s trade strategy backfiresFinancial Times analysis warns U.S. agriculture is paying the price as China sidesteps tariffs and Washington offers little protection U.S. farmers have once again found themselves on the losing end of global trade politics, according to a Financial Times column by Alan Beattie. The piece argues that President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade posture has left American agriculture exposed — squeezed between retaliatory measures from China and a White House that prioritizes tariffs and industrial strategy over farm-sector stability. Beattie notes that agriculture sits “at the bottom of the trade policy food chain,” routinely used as leverage in disputes but rarely shielded from the fallout. China, historically the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans and other farm commodities, has responded to U.S. tariffs by diversifying suppliers, increasing purchases from Brazil and other exporters, and leaning more heavily on domestic production and state reserves. That shift has reduced Beijing’s dependence on U.S. farmers, weakening Washington’s leverage. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff-heavy approach has raised input costs for farmers — through higher prices for machinery, fertilizer, and chemicals — while offering limited new export opportunities in return. Beattie argues that while past administrations at least paired tough trade actions with clear compensation or market-access gains for agriculture, current policy leaves farmers absorbing both higher costs and weaker demand. The column also highlights a political paradox: farmers remain a core Trump constituency, yet agriculture continues to be treated as collateral damage in broader trade battles aimed at China. Beijing, for its part, has learned how to “stiff” Trump by minimizing exposure to U.S. farm goods without triggering domestic shortages, blunting the intended pressure from tariffs. Beattie’s conclusion is blunt: unless U.S. trade policy puts agriculture closer to the center — rather than the periphery — of its strategy, American farmers will continue to pay for confrontations they neither started nor control, even as China proves increasingly adept at sidestepping the pain.—Texas hosts regional talks on New World screwworm threatAgriculture and public-health officials from Latin America join Texas leaders to coordinate surveillance, prevention, and response strategies The Texas Department of Agriculture last Thursday convened agricultural, veterinary, and epidemiological leaders from across Latin America to address the growing threat posed by the New World screwworm, a parasitic fly that can cause severe and often fatal infections in livestock and wildlife if not rapidly contained. The meetings focused on strengthening cross-border coordination, early detection, and rapid response capabilities as officials warned that climate variability, animal movement, and lapses in surveillance could increase the risk of the pest spreading northward. Texas officials emphasized that preventing the re-establishment of screwworm in the United States is a top priority given the state’s large cattle industry and its role as a major gateway for livestock trade with Mexico and Central America. Participants discussed the importance of maintaining robust monitoring programs, sharing real-time epidemiological data, and sustaining proven control tools such as sterile insect technique programs that historically helped eradicate screwworm from the U.S. and much of Mexico. Officials also underscored the need for coordinated communication with producers so infestations can be identified and reported quickly. The talks come amid heightened concern among U.S. cattle producers, who have been closely watching animal-health risks at the southern border, including screwworm, foot-and-mouth disease, and other transboundary pests and diseases. Texas agriculture officials framed the meetings as a preventive step aimed at protecting livestock health, trade flows, and rural economies on both sides of the border. —USTR reviews China’s Phase One commitmentsHearing to assess compliance with trade and agriculture pledges under the 2020 deal The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative will hold a public hearing Tuesday, Dec. 16, to examine China’s implementation of the Phase One trade agreement, with a focus on whether Beijing met its purchase and policy commitments. The session is designed to gather stakeholder input on China’s performance under the deal. While there is broad agreement that China fell short of fully complying, particularly on pledged purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, assessments are more mixed on policy reforms. China implemented many of the agreed-upon changes affecting agricultural trade, such as market access and regulatory adjustments, but did not complete all of the reforms outlined in the agreement. The hearing comes as the administration weighs how China’s partial compliance should factor into future trade enforcement and negotiations. —USDA opens review of refined sugar import rules under new farm lawAgency seeks industry input on whether tighter conditions are needed and how changes could affect U.S. sugar producers and refiners USDA has issued a request for information (RFI) (link) to gather public input on whether additional terms and conditions should be placed on imports of refined sugar. The move is required under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and is part of a broader review of current sugar import policies. USDA emphasized that the notice is not a request for proposals or specific policy recommendations. Instead, it is intended to fulfill a statutory mandate directing the department to conduct a study examining both the potential need for modifications to refined sugar import requirements and the likely impacts of any changes on the domestic sugar industry. Of note: For purposes of the review, USDA defines the domestic sugar industry broadly, including sugar beet producers and processors, sugarcane growers and processors, and refiners of raw cane sugar. The agency will use stakeholder feedback to inform its analysis of market impacts and policy options.Comments in response to the RFI must be submitted by Jan. 14, 2026. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets steadied with European shares moving higher, but investor caution capped gains at the start of a week loaded with big central bank decisions and economic data. Wall Street futures are solidly higher on rising hopes that Kevin Warsh, not Kevin Hassett, would be the next Fed Chair. President Trump told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that Fed Governor Warsh is a top contender for the role, joining National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as a front-runner to succeed Jerome Powell. Trump said that Warsh had moved to the top of his Fed Chir list and that’s positive as markets view Warsh as more independent than Hassett. In Asia, Japan -1.3%. Hong Kong -1.3%. China -0.6%. India -0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.9%. Paris +1.1%. Frankfurt +0.4%.
—Gold neared a record high, and copper clawed back some of Friday’s steep drop. Gold has surged over 65% this year and silver has more than doubled, with both metals on track for their best annual performances since 1979.
—Global data deluge tests growth and policy outlook
Asia, Europe, and the U.S. deliver critical readings on inflation, growth, and central bank direction as trade uncertainty lingers
The week ahead is packed with high-impact global economic data that will shape expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy across major economies.
In Asia, markets will scrutinize China’s November activity figures for confirmation that domestic demand remains weak despite some improvement in exports. Japan is a focal point, with its Tankan business survey, inflation data, and a widely expected Bank of Japan rate hike underscoring a gradual shift away from ultra-loose policy. Elsewhere in the region, Taiwan is likely to keep rates unchanged, while New Zealand and India release key indicators on growth and inflation.
In Europe, attention centers on the European Central Bank, which is expected to hold rates steady as inflation hovers near target, but growth remains fragile. Germany’s ZEW and Ifo surveys are projected to show ongoing softness in business sentiment, reinforcing concerns about economic momentum heading into year-end. The UK could diverge from the euro area, with easing inflation potentially opening the door to a Bank of England rate cut if labor market and price data continue to cool.
In the United States, the November employment report will be closely watched but may be skewed by the longest federal government shutdown, complicating readings on payrolls and unemployment. Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist, expects November’s unemployment rate to tick up to 4.6%. “With the Fed’s forecast for the unemployment rate at 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, we think any rise to 4.6% or above will keep the Fed in easing mode,” he wrote. Additional data on inflation, retail sales, housing, and regional manufacturing will help determine whether the economy is losing steam or finding its footing. Across regions, lingering trade policy uncertainty — particularly surrounding President Trump’s tariffs — remains a key backdrop weighing on business confidence and investment decisions.
—Fed policy confusion, tariffs, and China’s trillion-dollar surplus set the tone for 2026
Michael Drury argues monetary policy is effectively locked in, while fiscal stimulus, immigration reform, and China’s export model reshape the global outlook
In his Weekly Economic Update dated Dec. 12, 2025, Michael Drury, Chief Economist, Trading & Investments, LLC, lays out a policy-heavy assessment of U.S. monetary and fiscal conditions and a stark warning about China’s growing dominance in global trade. Writing for his firm’s regular outlook, Drury concludes that despite mixed signals from the Federal Reserve and political noise around tariffs and fiscal transfers, there is already enough stimulus in the pipeline to support a solid start to 2026.
Drury characterizes the Federal Reserve’s latest quarter-point rate cut as internally conflicted, pointing to three dissents and widely divergent “dot plot” projections as evidence that policy is effectively frozen through the 2026 midterm elections. He argues the Fed’s decision to begin purchasing $40 billion per month in short-dated Treasuries is a technical move to maintain ample reserves — not a return to quantitative easing — and cautions businesses not to expect meaningfully lower borrowing costs. In his view, firms that require further rate relief to remain viable are already over-leveraged.
A central critique is the Fed’s failure to adjust long-term growth assumptions for immigration reform. Drury estimates reduced immigration has lowered potential growth by roughly 0.75 percentage points, weakening labor force expansion by more than a million jobs annually. He suggests recent rate cuts are only justified in this context and questions the Fed’s optimism about a sharp growth rebound in 2026 given already-strong GDP tracking and inconsistent employment data.
On fiscal policy, Drury highlights unresolved health-care legislation, potential tariff refunds pending a Supreme Court decision, and renewed discussion from President Donald Trump of direct payments funded by tariff revenue. Taken together, he sees monetary easing, fiscal transfers, and possible refunds as sufficient to support near-term growth without further policy action.
Internationally, Drury devotes significant attention to China, warning that its record $1 trillion year-to-date trade surplus reflects a deliberate, state-directed economic model rather than a temporary imbalance. He argues China’s export dominance is rooted in government control of capital allocation, manufacturing capacity, and the machinery that underpins global production. In this framework, debt functions more like an internal tax system than a constraint, and calls for China to pivot toward consumption are unrealistic. Drury concludes that without coordinated international action beyond tariffs, China’s surplus — and influence over global supply chains — will continue to expand.
| AG MARKETS |
—USDA daily export sales:
• 150,320 MT corn to unknown destinations, 2025/2026 marketing year
•136,000 MT soybeans to China, 2025/2026 marketing year
—Big U.S. soybean sales, additional wheat sales to China in latest USDA update. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report for the week ended Nov. 20 included 2025/26 activity to China including net sales of 197,000 metric tons of wheat, 2,142,000 metric tons of soybeans, and net sales of 8,337 running bales of upland cotton. For 2025, there was no activity reported for beef but net sales of 4,196 metric tons of pork along with 2,924 metric tons of exports to put the outstanding sales at 14,025 metric tons. USDA had confirmed 132,000 metric tons of wheat sales and 1,707,000 metric tons of soybeans sales in daily sales announcements for the period.
—Hedge funds pile into commodities in search of new returns
Balyasny, Jain Global and Qube expand trading desks as volatility, geopolitics and supply shocks revive interest in raw materials
Hedge funds are pouring fresh capital into commodities trading as they look for new sources of returns amid crowded equity trades and uncertainty over interest rates, the Financial Times reports. Multi-strategy firms including Balyasny Asset Management, Jain Global and Qube Research & Technologies are expanding their commodities operations, hiring traders and building infrastructure that allows them to trade physical and derivatives markets directly, rather than relying solely on macro-overlays.
According to the FT, the renewed push reflects a belief that commodities are entering a structurally more volatile era, driven by geopolitical conflict, climate-related supply disruptions, energy transition dynamics and shifting trade policies. These forces have created sharper price swings across oil, gas, metals and agricultural markets — conditions that sophisticated hedge funds see as fertile ground for alpha generation.
Historically, many large hedge funds treated commodities as a peripheral strategy, often scaling back after years of muted returns following the last supercycle. But the FT notes that recent gains — alongside inflation risks, sanctions regimes and tighter inventories — have prompted firms to reconsider. Some funds are now building dedicated teams capable of trading futures, options and, in some cases, physical flows, signaling a more permanent commitment rather than a tactical bet.
Industry executives told the Financial Times that commodities also offer diversification benefits at a time when traditional macro trades are increasingly correlated. With governments reshaping energy systems, supply chains fragmenting, and weather extremes becoming more frequent, hedge funds see commodities not just as a hedge, but as a core strategy for the next phase of global markets.
—Brazil’s soybean powerhouse: record crops amid weather and market shifts
Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop is on track for record production, reshaping global markets even as climate, planting delays, and U.S./China trade tensions influence supply and demand dynamics.
Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest is forecast to reach record levels, with analysts projecting around 175 – 180 million metric tons — surpassing last year’s crop and reinforcing Brazil’s standing as the world’s largest soybean producer.
Note: Brazil’s national statistics agency Conab last week modestly reduced its 2025/26 soybean production estimate, citing a slightly smaller planted area and uneven, weather-related planting disruptions across parts of the country. Even with the downgrade, Brazil is still projected to harvest a record 177.1 million metric tons of soybeans this season, underscoring the scale and resilience of its oilseed sector.
The adjustment reflects localized planting delays rather than broad yield losses, and the overall outlook remains historically large. Importantly, Conab’s December soybean estimates have a track record of undershooting final production, except in seasons marked by severe weather shocks.
Acreage is expanding to historical highs, driven by strong export demand (especially from China) and increased domestic uses such as biodiesel mandates.
Despite irregular weather and some planting delays, favorable growing conditions in key central regions support yield expectations.
Brazil’s soybean planting season faced some disruption from La Niña-related erratic rainfall, which delayed sowing in parts of the center-west, but improved weather forecasts have since bolstered expectations.
Local reports also highlight isolated hail damage and drought stress in certain states, underscoring climate risks even as overall production stays strong.
Export trends & global market impact: Brazil’s soybean exports remain heavily concentrated toward China, which shifted much of its soybean sourcing to Brazil following earlier trade disputes with the U.S. — a trend that has accelerated Brazil’s market share globally. This structural shift has helped Brazil strengthen its position as a global soybean supply anchor, even as U.S. soybean exports remain subdued relative to historical levels.
Broader Context: Brazil’s rise in soybean production has long-term market and environmental implications, including clearing agricultural lands such as the Cerrado biome for cropland expansion, which has historically driven part of Brazil’s boom in agricultural output. The strength of Brazil’s soybean sector — both in planted area and export capacity — continues to exert downward pressure on global soy prices, complicating prospects for U.S. producers still grappling with reduced Chinese demand and trade uncertainty.
—Brazil’s soybean exports brace for a more predictable 2026 as China trade normalizes
Industry sees truce in U.S./China tariff fight restoring “business as usual” — with Brazil retaining a pricing edge
Brazilian soybean exporters expect a calmer and more favorable international environment in 2026, betting that the truce in the U.S./China trade conflict will reduce volatility without eroding Brazil’s dominant position in the Chinese market.
After a turbulent 2025 marked by geopolitical uncertainty, exporters say the market is beginning to normalize. The National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) forecasts Brazil’s soybean exports will rise to 112 million tonnes in 2026, up from an estimated 108 million tonnes in 2025, reflecting higher production and sustained Chinese demand. From January through November this year, Brazil exported 104.7 million tonnes, according to government trade data.
Anec argues that while the trade war temporarily boosted Brazilian shipments to China, the easing of tensions does not fundamentally alter long-term trade flows. The guiding principle within the association, according to its leadership, is “to watch what China does, not what it says.”
Jean Carlo Budziak, Anec’s head of market intelligence, notes that headline commitments in the U.S./China agreement are largely symbolic. The pledge for China to buy 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in 2025 (later shifted to by the end of February) has not materialized, and the proposed 25 million tonnes per year over the following three years falls well within historical norms for U.S. exports to China. Meanwhile, Chinese consumption continues to grow.
“If the agreement holds, the market returns to normal,” Budziak says — adding that meeting China’s expanding demand could still be challenging, a dynamic that favors Brazilian exporters.
China’s reliance on Brazilian soybeans remains pronounced. From January to November 2025, China absorbed 80% of Brazil’s soybean exports, up from 78% a year earlier. In October alone, Brazil shipped 6 million tonnes to China, accounting for 94% of that month’s total exports.
Price competitiveness remains Brazil’s core advantage. Chinese buyers say Brazilian soybeans consistently undercut U.S. supplies. Lin Tan, director of Chinese trading firm Hopefull, says his company has already begun contracting Brazilian soybeans for the new crop and sees little incentive to buy U.S. origin beans priced nearly $1 per bushel higher.
“China will continue buying Brazilian soybeans, no doubt,” Lin says, adding that while China may occasionally source from the U.S. or Argentina for stockpiling, Brazil is the preferred supplier for crushing operations. He also notes that the U.S. has expanded domestic crushing capacity since the pandemic, further limiting the volume available for export.
Beyond soybeans, analysts see broader structural shifts reinforcing Brazil’s position. Larissa Wachholz, a partner at Vallya Participações, says Brazil initially feared a repeat of the rigid purchase mandates seen during President Donald Trump’s first term. But she argues the context has changed: China no longer fully trusts the U.S. as a supplier and has expanded grain use for animal feed following lessons learned from the African swine fever crisis.
Those shifts helped Brazil consolidate market share, while U.S. shipments largely remained within historical ranges of 20–30 million tonnes annually. China’s decision to build strategic reserves made 2025 an outlier, Wachholz says, but the new agreement simply resets trade flows to late-2024 norms.
“The truce brings stability without harming Brazil,” she says. “In practice, it restores the China/U.S. relationship to normal levels — and China still has the capacity to absorb virtually everything Brazil can sell.”
For Brazilian exporters, that normalization — combined with pricing advantages and growing Chinese demand — underpins confidence that 2026 will be less chaotic and more commercially predictable than the year just ending.
| HPAI/BIRD FLU |
—Bird flu detected in Wisconsin dairy herd as vaccine pressure builds
Second recent case in cattle underscores biosecurity concerns, while lawmakers push USDA to fast-track an avian flu vaccine
Bird flu has been detected in a Wisconsin dairy cattle herd, marking the second case in cattle in the past month and highlighting the virus’s unpredictable spread beyond poultry. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed the case Sunday, emphasizing that it poses no risk to consumers or the commercial milk supply, citing FDA confidence that pasteurization effectively inactivates the HPAI virus.
APHIS said it will complete genetic sequencing of the virus and coordinate with Wisconsin officials on on-farm investigations and diagnostic testing. The Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection noted the state’s participation in the National Milk Testing Strategy, which requires lactating dairy cattle to test negative for influenza before interstate movement — an effort aimed at containing spread.
Industry groups warn that bird flu remains a significant threat to agricultural supply chains, particularly poultry, given the virus’s unpredictable transmission via migratory birds.
The Wisconsin case also comes amid renewed pressure on USDA to accelerate vaccine development. A bipartisan group of 23 lawmakers urged USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to expedite review of an avian flu vaccine for poultry and to prioritize a vaccine for dairy cattle thereafter. USDA responded that its biosecurity and epidemiological framework remains strong and that it continues to support producers with assessments and improvements. Major industry groups, including the National Turkey Federation, United Egg Producers, and National Milk Producers Federation, endorsed the lawmakers’ call.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Monday: Oil prices held steady as investors balanced supply disruptions linked to escalating U.S./Venezuela tensions with oversupply concerns and the impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Brent crude futures were up 0.25% at $61.27 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $57.59 a barrel, up 0.26%. Both contracts slid more than 4% last week, weighed down by expectations of a surplus in 2026.
—Study backs EPA “half-RIN” plan as best outcome for U.S. soybean demand
Analysis finds proposal strengthens domestic soybean markets while preserving biofuel sourcing flexibility
A new economic analysis concludes that the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to award only 50% of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to imported biofuels and biofuels made from imported feedstocks would deliver the strongest economic outcome for U.S. soybean farmers while maintaining flexibility for biomass-based diesel producers. The study, Implications for Biofuels and Feedstock Demand of the Granting of Full or Half RIN Credits on Imports, was funded by the United Soybean Board and conducted by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES).
According to the analysis, the so-called “half-RIN” approach reduces policy incentives to substitute foreign oils for U.S. soybean oil, making domestic feedstocks more competitive without barring imports outright. Researchers evaluated multiple scenarios tied to EPA’s proposed 2026–2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes and found that the half-RIN option produced the largest gains for soybean farmer income, domestic soybean oil demand, and overall commodity values. The study notes that EPA’s pending volume rule already envisions record biomass-based diesel use, further supporting domestic soybean crushing and oil utilization.
The researchers modeled three scenarios and found that eliminating the half-RIN provision would significantly weaken soybean markets, even if EPA later raised blending mandates. Without the half-RIN, the study projects soybean cash receipts falling by roughly $2 billion per year in both the 2026/27 and 2027/28 crop years, alongside multi-billion-dollar declines in the value of soybean oil and meal. Domestic soybean oil use in biofuels would drop sharply, while imports of used cooking oil and tallow would rise by more than 2 billion pounds annually, displacing U.S. soybean demand.
Even under a compromise scenario in which EPA offsets removal of the half-RIN by increasing renewable volume obligations, the analysis still shows notable losses for soybean farmers, reduced soybean oil use in biofuels, and a substantial surge in imported feedstocks. By contrast, the half-RIN framework consistently delivered the strongest results across all major economic metrics examined.
Quote of note: “Soybean farmers support strong biomass-based diesel markets,” said American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer, in the release accompanying the study. “This study confirms that when policy values domestic feedstocks, rural communities benefit. The half-RIN proposal still gives biofuel producers flexibility, but it keeps American soybeans competitive and keeps more value here at home.”
Bottom Line: Overall, the study concludes that granting half RIN credits to imported feedstocks best aligns RIN generation with domestic availability, supports farm income and crushing capacity, and sustains rural economic growth, while still allowing imported materials to remain part of the biofuel supply mix.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Bipartisan lawmakers press USTR to leverage USMCA review on Canadian dairy
House members urge tougher enforcement and new commitments ahead of the 2026 pact review
A bipartisan group of 75 House lawmakers is urging U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to use the 2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to secure meaningful new access for U.S. dairy products in Canada, arguing Ottawa has failed to deliver on market-opening promises made when the deal took effect more than five years ago.
In a Dec. 3 letter released Friday (link), the lawmakers say the upcoming review is a “critical opportunity” to finally ensure U.S. dairy farmers and exporters receive the benefits envisioned under USMCA, particularly expanded access through tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) and disciplines on subsidized Canadian exports. They contend Canada’s administration of its dairy TRQs and its handling of nonfat milk solids continue to disadvantage U.S. producers and undermine U.S. competitiveness at home and abroad.
The letter, signed by House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.) and Ways & Means trade subcommittee Chair Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), among others, argues that Canada has a long history of restricting U.S. dairy imports while exporting low-priced milk solids globally in ways that run counter to its trade commitments. While USTR challenged Canada’s dairy practices twice under USMCA during the Biden administration — winning the first case but losing a second — the lawmakers say Canada still has not complied with its obligations.
They also point to the administration’s March decision to ask the U.S. International Trade Commission to investigate the global nonfat milk solids market, calling it an important step toward closing loopholes in USMCA’s dairy export rules. The USITC’s findings are due next March, ahead of the formal USMCA review slated for July.
The lawmakers urge USTR to use both the investigation and the review process to negotiate “additional meaningful and enforceable commitments” and to hold Canada accountable. They contrast Canada’s approach with Mexico’s, noting that despite some outstanding issues — such as common cheese names — Mexico has largely preserved the free flow of bilateral dairy trade, which they say should be protected as the agreement is revisited.
—Minority report: American families shoulder rising tariff costs under Trump
JEC Minority says consumers — not foreign exporters — are paying the bulk of new trade levies
American families have paid nearly $1,200 each in tariff costs during the first 10 months of President Donald Trump’s second term, according to new estimates from the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) Minority. The analysis argues that tariffs are functioning as a direct tax on U.S. consumers, with costs rising steadily since Trump returned to office.
The JEC Minority combined U.S. Treasury data on tariff revenues collected from February through November with independent estimates of how much of each tariff dollar is passed on to consumers. Based on that methodology, the committee estimates that American consumers paid nearly $160 billion in tariff costs over that period — equivalent to about $1,200 per family.
The report warns that the burden is likely to grow. If monthly tariff collections remain at November’s pace, the JEC Minority estimates that families would pay roughly $2,100 per year in tariff-related costs over the next 12 months, intensifying pressure on household budgets already strained by elevated prices.
| CHINA |
— China’s November data underscores deepening consumption slump
Retail sales, investment, and industrial output all miss forecasts as weak demand and the property downturn weigh on confidence
China’s economic slowdown deepened in November as key indicators on consumption, investment, and industrial output all fell short of expectations, intensifying concerns that domestic demand remains too weak to sustain growth without stronger policy support.
Retail sales rose just 1.3% year over year, sharply below the 2.8% consensus forecast and down from 2.9% in October, highlighting persistent strain on household spending. Industrial production increased 4.8%, also missing expectations and marking its weakest pace since August 2024. Fixed-asset investment contracted 2.6% in the January–November period, the steepest decline since the pandemic, driven largely by a worsening property slump.
Real estate investment fell 15.9% in the first 11 months of the year, while home price declines across major cities accelerated in November. Economists warned that falling property prices and investment are increasingly feeding into weaker consumer sentiment. Analysts also pointed to declining auto sales—down 8.1% year over year in November — and a disappointing Singles’ Day shopping season as additional drags on retail activity.
While Beijing has reiterated plans to support demand through ultra-long-term government bonds, equipment upgrades, and consumer trade-in programs, economists remain skeptical about the impact without stronger job and wage growth. With urban unemployment stuck at 5.1% and youth joblessness still elevated, analysts argue that more forceful stimulus and structural reforms are needed to rebalance the economy toward consumption — even as strong exports keep China on track to meet its “around 5%” growth target for the year.
—China targets higher imports, exports and consumption to sustain trade growth in 2026
Beijing signals a push to rebalance trade and lean more heavily on domestic demand as officials respond to global headwinds and IMF pressure
China plans to expand both exports and imports in 2026 as part of a broader strategy to sustain foreign trade growth while gradually rebalancing its economy toward domestic demand, a senior official said this weekend. Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission’s general office, said Beijing would promote “sustainable development of foreign trade” by boosting service exports and accelerating digital and green trade, even as it faces growing international scrutiny over its record trade surplus.
Han’s comments come as China’s trade surplus topped $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, intensifying calls from trading partners for Beijing to address global imbalances. The approach outlined by Han echoes guidance from China’s central economic work conference, emphasizing further opening of the services sector, expanded free-trade zones, and stronger efforts to stimulate consumption at home.
To that end, Beijing plans to loosen “unreasonable restrictions” on consumption, give local governments more flexibility to spur spending, raise household incomes and pensions, and improve the environment for inbound tourism.
Officials see foreign visitors as an underused source of demand, building on a surge in inbound travel following China’s expanded visa-free entry policy. Official data show inbound visits jumped more than 60% in 2024, with tourist spending up nearly 78%.
The shift aligns with pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which warned this week that export-led growth is becoming less viable given China’s economic size and rising global trade tensions. The IMF urged Beijing to move more decisively toward a consumption-led model, backed by expansionary macro policies, stronger social protections and targeted support for the property sector.
Han also reiterated Beijing’s push to curb so-called “involution,” or destructive price competition, to foster a healthier market environment. He said China’s economic performance this year exceeded expectations, with GDP on track to reach about 140 trillion yuan (US$19.8 trillion). The IMF projects growth of about 5% in 2025, easing to 4.5% in 2026, underscoring why Chinese officials are seeking more balanced and resilient drivers of growth.
| CONGRESS |
—GOP floats smaller affordability push after megabill
Party weighs a second reconciliation effort focused on health care and costs, but leaders warn expectations are limited
Republicans are debating whether to pursue a second, narrower partisan bill aimed at affordability ahead of the midterms, even as President Trump and GOP leaders downplay the likelihood of another sweeping package like the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3) Act. Trump has argued that Republicans already delivered with the earlier tax-and-spending law, while leaders such as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) caution that any follow-up effort would be far smaller and harder to assemble.
Pressure is growing within the party to show action on cost-of-living and health care issues, particularly as Democrats prepare to campaign on the potential expiration of enhanced ACA/ObamaCare subsidies. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) has publicly urged leadership to try another budget reconciliation bill — the party-line process that bypasses the Senate filibuster — pointing to tax, regulatory, and health care reforms as possible components.
While Republicans theoretically have room for another reconciliation attempt, consensus on the contents remains elusive. House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Tex.) and Republican Study Committee Chair August Pfluger (R-Tex.) have suggested a healthcare–focused package, including ideas such as expanding health savings accounts and boosting private insurance competition.
GOP leaders are also moving a separate set of health care bills this week, including pharmacy benefit manager reforms, as a potential preview. Still, some Republicans remain skeptical that a second bill would meaningfully improve the party’s affordability message heading into a tough midterm cycle.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Trump unsure economic gains will carry GOP through midterms
President tells Wall Street Journal that investments and tariffs may take time to resonate with voters as Republicans face historical headwinds
President Donald Trump said he is uncertain whether his economic agenda will translate into Republican wins in next year’s midterm elections, acknowledging in an interview with the Wall Street Journal (link) that the benefits of his policies may not yet be fully felt by voters. While touting multibillion-dollar investments, new trade deals and tariffs he says are reshoring manufacturing and strengthening national security, Trump said he “cannot tell” how quickly those gains will show up politically, noting that job growth has been uneven and prices for everyday goods remain a key voter concern.
With GOP losses in recent races and historically tough odds for the president’s party in midterms, Democrats plan to center their campaigns on inflation and cost-of-living pressures, even as Trump argues he inherited high inflation and insists his policies will soon put prices “in good shape.”
The president also defended tariffs amid a pending Supreme Court challenge, criticized Federal Reserve rate policy, and said the White House will aggressively campaign to sell its economic record ahead of November.
| FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—Food industry groups challenge Texas ingredient warning law
Lawsuit argues mandated labels on dyes and additives are misleading, unconstitutional, and clash with federal standards
A coalition of major food and beverage industry groups has sued Texas to block a new state law that would require warning labels on products containing certain artificial dyes and other ingredients, marking one of the industry’s most direct legal challenges yet to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement.
The lawsuit, filed by groups representing companies such as Kraft Heinz and Coca-Cola, contends that the Texas statute forces manufacturers to display disclosures that are “false and misleading” and violates the First Amendment by compelling companies to promote the state’s viewpoint about product safety. The law, passed this summer, would take effect in January 2027 and require disclosures for 44 ingredients, stating they are “not recommended for human consumption” in other countries.
Industry groups argue that many of the covered ingredients — including some artificial dyes and even certain naturally derived additives — are legal, widely used, and extensively reviewed for safety under U.S. standards. They warn the labels would confuse consumers, raise compliance costs, and disrupt interstate commerce.
The plaintiffs also say the Texas law is vague and conflicts with existing federal authority over ingredient safety and labeling, an area traditionally overseen by the FDA. “The government cannot wield its power to force citizens to speak,” the lawsuit argues, adding that Texas is mandating warnings based on opinion rather than established scientific consensus.
The case underscores rising tension between food manufacturers and a growing number of states pursuing ingredient bans, warning labels, or restrictions on ultraprocessed foods. While dye manufacturers previously sued to overturn a West Virginia ban, the Texas challenge is notable for bringing major branded food companies openly into court against MAHA-aligned state policies.
Plaintiffs include the American Beverage Association, Consumer Brands Association, National Confectioners Association, and FMI – The Food Industry Association.
Upshot: As Congress shows little appetite for preempting state action, the industry is increasingly signaling that the courts — rather than federal legislation — may be its primary path to a national standard.
—When it pays to be a jerk(y): Jack Link’s $4 billion family-owned business is the largest manufacturer of jerky in the world, selling 800 million packages of meat snacks and other products a year. But the company namesake and his son are still hungry for more. Back in 1985, the Link family’s Wisconsin meatpacking business had just gone bankrupt, and Jack Link was taking his then-teenage sons hunting when they stopped at a convenience store to buy a few packages of jerky. After paying, Link couldn’t believe how expensive it was. “I said, ‘Wow, that’s quite a lot of money,’” Link, now 79 years old, tells Forbes. The idea stuck with Link, who soon realized that he could make these products himself, and that he even already had ovens in his shutdown plant. “So we laid some jerky in there and it came out just wonderfully,” Link says in a rare interview. “And that’s where it all began.” Link for article.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Heavy rain and strong winds impact the Northwest… …Lake Effect snow wraps up this evening… …Above average temperatures expand from West into Central U.S., while an Arctic airmass grips the East through tonight.
