Week Ahead: One of Most Consequential for Commodity Markets in 2026

More on DEF | Iran war updates | Rollins highlights ‘Product of the USA’ | Trump presses for lower tractor prices | House GOP rejects Senate DHS deal, exposing Republican divisions

LINKS

Link: Trump Rolls Out Ag Relief at Historic White House Farm Gathering
Link: EPA Finalizes RFS Set 2 Rule with Higher Biodiesel Targets,
         70% SRE Reallocation

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21

Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 28, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES
 

— Rollins highlights “Product of the USA” push, Trump targets lower tractor costs: USDA moves to tighten domestic labeling within weeks while the White House pressures equipment makers to cut prices and expand right-to-repair — aiming to boost farm income and reduce input costs.

— Updates on war with Iran: Conflict expected to last weeks, not months, says Rubio, but risks are escalating — nuclear site strikes, leadership uncertainty, and expanding fronts (Houthis, Lebanon) are raising geopolitical and shipping threats.

— Trump, EPA move to ease DEF rules as Congress pushes Diesel Liberation Act: Administration rolls back diesel emissions requirements to cut costs, with legislation aimed at locking in billions in savings for farmers and truckers.
 

FINANCIAL MARKETS
 

— Equities Friday and weekly change: Stocks slide deeper into correction territory as markets price in prolonged Iran war risks, with oil adding to inflation concerns.

— Oil shock fuels inflation risks — structural pressures could keep prices elevated for years: Barron’s analysis (Megan Leonhardt) warns energy spike plus structural shifts (deglobalization, labor, AI demand) could anchor inflation near or above 3% long term.
 

AG MARKETS
 

— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change: Grains weaken on risk-off trade and stronger dollar, while cattle and cotton post strong gains with bullish technical momentum.

— Commodity markets wrap: Grains retreat, livestock surge, cotton shines: Technical selling pressures grains while livestock and cotton rally, signaling divergent momentum across the ag complex.

— Key commodity reports & market factors: week of March 30: High-stakes USDA reports (plantings, stocks) collide with Iran-driven fertilizer shock and supply disruptions — setting up major volatility in grains.
 

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
 

— Friday: Oil extends rally as Iran conflict risk premium deepens: Crude climbs on tightening supply and Hormuz disruptions, with ~11M bpd offline and upside risk tied to prolonged conflict.
 

CONGRESS
 

— House GOP rejects Senate DHS deal, exposing Republican divisions: House blocks bipartisan Senate plan, advancing short-term funding instead — escalating intra-party tensions over border policy.
 

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Cooler conditions give way to milder weather next week, with fire risk in the Plains and storms targeting Florida.
 

TOP STORIES—Rollins highlights “Product of the USA” push, Trump targets lower tractor costsUSDA secretary says new labeling rules coming within weeks as White House presses manufacturers to cut equipment prices amid rising farm input costs USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins used a March 28 Fox News appearance to spotlight the Trump administration’s rollout of a stricter “Product of the USA” food label, while underscoring President Donald Trump’s push to drive down tractor and equipment costs for farmers. “Product of the USA” label rollout imminent. Rollins said the administration is moving quickly to implement the new voluntary label, which is designed to tighten standards and give consumers clearer assurance that food products are fully domestic.• The label will require products to be born, raised, harvested, and processed in the United States, replacing prior looser definitions.• Rollins said retailers and producers are already being engaged, with visible adoption expected within weeks, and broader normalization across grocery shelves in the coming months.• The effort is paired with a marketing push aimed at reinforcing demand for U.S.-produced food and supporting domestic producers. The initiative reflects a broader policy emphasis on reshoring food production and strengthening farm income through domestic market signals, particularly as global supply chains remain strained. Trump presses for lower tractor prices. Rollins also highlighted President Trump’s remarks at the White House agriculture event, where he called on major equipment manufacturers to pass along cost savings to farmers.• Trump said companies like John Deere, Case IH, and Caterpillar should deliver “bigger, better tractors” at “substantially less money.”• The administration is tying this push to regulatory rollbacks, arguing that reduced compliance costs should translate into lower equipment prices.• Rollins said she has been tasked with working directly with industry CEOs to ensure those savings reach producers. The issue comes as farmers continue to face elevated input costs — including machinery — following multi-year inflation in ag inputs. Right-to-repair and input cost relief. Rollins pointed to the administration’s support for “right to repair” policies as another lever to reduce equipment costs.• Farmers can now repair their own machinery, avoiding what she described as average costs of roughly $33,000 per repair under prior restrictions.• The move is part of a broader effort to reduce operating costs, alongside lower labor expenses and expanded biofuel demand policies. Broader farm policy context. Rollins framed both the labeling initiative and equipment cost push as part of a wider strategy to stabilize the farm economy during geopolitical volatility — including rising fertilizer and diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict.• She cited improving farm income and export growth projections, including higher corn exports and expanded ethanol demand.• The administration is also signaling continued focus on trade deals and a pending farm bill push. Rollins said farm income was “up around 20%” year over year, framing it as evidence that the administration’s policies are starting to stabilize the farm economy. She paired that with the argument that costs of doing business are coming down, pointing to lower labor costs and regulatory relief as supporting margins. Her broader message: While acknowledging recent struggles in agriculture, she argued the “infrastructure is being built” for stronger profitability going forward under current policies. Bottom Line: The “Product of the USA” label is poised to hit shelves quickly as a demand-side support tool, while the White House is increasingly targeting input costs — particularly equipment — as a key pressure point for farm profitability. —Updates on war with Iran:  •Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday the war with Iran is likely to continue for another two to four weeks, underscoring what some term a relatively contained timeline. Speaking ahead of meetings with G7 foreign ministers, Rubio later told reporters the conflict would last “weeks, not months,” signaling the administration does not anticipate a prolonged campaign. He also emphasized that U.S. objectives can be achieved without deploying ground forces. “We are ahead of schedule on most of them [objectives], and we can achieve them without any ground troops,” Rubio said. • Strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure escalate tensions. Israel Defense Forces confirmed airstrikes on Iranian nuclear-related sites, including the heavy water reactor at Arak, signaling a direct effort to degrade Iran’s plutonium pathway. Israeli officials claim the facility — previously constrained under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — had been subject to reconstruction efforts tied to weapons capability. Iran’s foreign minister said the strikes undermine diplomacy after Donald Trump extended a negotiating deadline, highlighting the growing disconnect between military action and diplomatic signaling. • Leadership uncertainty inside Iran adds volatility. Trump said newly elevated Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “either dead or in very bad shape,” citing a lack of public appearances. The claim, unverified, injects further instability into Iran’s command structure at a critical moment in the conflict. • U.S. signals near-term exit as objectives largely met. Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. has achieved most military objectives and could wind down involvement soon. However, he indicated operations may continue briefly to ensure Iran’s capabilities are degraded long term, suggesting a short extension rather than immediate withdrawal. •Regional escalation risks widen beyond Iran/Israel theater. Yemen’s Houthi movement launched a missile toward Israel, marking its first strike since the Gaza ceasefire and formally expanding the conflict footprint. The group is also weighing closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait — a chokepoint for roughly 12% of global trade — raising major risks for shipping and energy flows. •Lebanon front intensifies with casualties and buffer zone expansion. Israeli operations in southern Lebanon continue to escalate, with multiple Israel Defense Forces casualties reported from anti-tank missile and rocket attacks. Israel ordered new evacuations north of the Zahrani River, signaling a push to extend control beyond the Litani River as part of an expanded buffer zone strategy backed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.•An Israeli strike killed journalists linked to Hezbollah-affiliated outlets; the IDF alleges at least one was involved in intelligence activities. A Lebanese soldier was also killed, underscoring rising state-level risk. Bottom Line: The conflict is entering a more dangerous phase: direct strikes on nuclear infrastructure, leadership ambiguity inside Iran, and new fronts (Houthis, others) are converging. Even as Washington signals a potential exit, the widening regional footprint and shipping chokepoint threats point to sustained geopolitical and market risk. —Trump, EPA move to ease DEF rules as Congress pushes Diesel Liberation ActAdministration guidance and proposed legislation aim to cut costs for farmers, truckers and equipment operators The Trump administration and congressional Republicans are moving in tandem to roll back diesel emissions requirements tied to Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF), with officials arguing the changes could save billions annually across agriculture and transportation sectors. President Donald Trump announced that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will eliminate the DEF sensor requirement for diesel-powered equipment used by farmers, truckers, and bus operators. The move is paired with new EPA guidance encouraging manufacturers to adopt alternative monitoring technologies for emissions systems, rather than relying on DEF-related inducement systems that can trigger costly shutdowns. EPA said the action is intended to provide “immediate relief” by reducing breakdowns and downtime tied to faulty DEF systems — an issue long cited by producers and freight operators. The agency, citing Small Business Administration estimates, said the policy could save farmers roughly $4.4 billion annually and generate total savings of nearly $13.8 billion per year across the broader economy. Trump, speaking at a White House agriculture event, framed the rollback as part of a broader effort to ease regulatory burdens. He criticized DEF requirements as overly restrictive and said the updated guidance would “drastically limit” the rules, lowering costs for both producers and consumers. The EPA’s directive focuses on diesel engines using Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) systems, signaling openness to alternatives such as nitrogen oxide (NOx) sensors to maintain emissions compliance without triggering automatic engine derates tied to DEF system failures. However, the guidance itself does not carry the force of law — prompting lawmakers to introduce the Diesel Liberation Act in both the House and Senate. The legislation would codify the regulatory changes, providing more permanent relief and legal certainty for equipment manufacturers and operators. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said widespread DEF system failures have created a “nationwide” problem impacting truckers, farmers, and small businesses, while SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler argued the changes would help offset regulatory pressures that have increased costs across the agricultural sector. Upshot: The push builds on earlier administration efforts in February aimed at ending diesel “derates,” and signals a broader policy shift toward loosening emissions compliance mechanisms seen by industry groups as unreliable and costly.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities Friday and weekly change: U.S. stocks extended losses following Thursday’s selloff, pushing the Dow into correction territory — more than 10% below its February peak. Markets are increasingly pricing in deeper fallout from the war with Iran. The Dow fell 1.7%, 793 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2.1% after entering correction territory a day earlier. The S&P 500 declined 1.7%, marking a fifth straight weekly loss — its longest losing streak since the market turmoil following the Ukraine war in 2022. Meanwhile, oil prices resumed their upward climb, adding to inflation and growth concerns.

Equity Index	Closing Price  March 27	Point Difference  from March 26	% Difference  from March 26	Weekly Change
Dow	45,166.64	-793.47	-1.73%	-0.90%
Nasdaq	20,948.36	-459.72	– 2.15%	-3.23%
S&P 500	6,368.85	-108.31	-1.67%	-2.12%

—Oil shock fuels inflation risks — structural pressures could keep prices elevated for years

Barron’s analysis warns war-driven energy spike and deeper economic shifts may anchor inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target

Inflation in the U.S. is poised to reaccelerate sharply, with headline figures potentially reaching 4% in the coming months as oil prices surge amid the Iran war — and may remain elevated for years due to structural economic changes, according to Barron’s and reporting by Megan Leonhardt.

The recent spike in energy markets has already translated into higher consumer costs. U.S. gasoline prices jumped nearly 22% in March, pushing pump prices close to $4 per gallon nationally and significantly higher in regions like California. Economists estimate this surge alone could add roughly one percentage point to headline CPI, lifting it toward 3.4% in the near term and potentially to 4% shortly thereafter.

At the center of the inflation shock is the geopolitical disruption tied to the U.S./Israel conflict with Iran, which has constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy shipments. Oil prices surged from the mid-$60s–$70s range before the war to nearly $120 per barrel at peak, before easing modestly. Even so, supply risks remain elevated, with analysts expecting disruptions to persist for weeks or longer.

But the more consequential takeaway, Leonhardt reports, is that inflation pressures are no longer just cyclical — they are increasingly structural. Economists point to deglobalization, rising labor costs, tariffs, and surging demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure as persistent drivers of higher input costs across the economy. These forces are expected to keep inflation closer to 3% than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the foreseeable future.

“The world has changed in a way that has led to an upward tug on inflation,” one economist noted, highlighting a reversal from decades of globalization-driven disinflation.

Additional upstream price pressures are already visible. Import prices rose more than expected in February, while producer price gains have been driven by increases in diesel, industrial inputs, and even food products. Capacity constraints in capital goods industries — reminiscent of pandemic-era bottlenecks — are also reemerging.

While some relief may come from cooling housing costs — a major component of inflation — services inflation tied to wages and a tight labor market remains sticky. Analysts now expect core inflation to remain above the Fed’s comfort zone for years, with some projections suggesting it may not sustainably approach 2% until late in the decade.

Bottom Line: Markets, for now, are betting the Federal Reserve will hold steady, with low expectations for near-term rate hikes. However, Barron’s cautions that a scenario combining persistently high inflation with tighter monetary policy would pose a far greater risk to economic stability than the current energy shock alone.

AG MARKETS

—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:

Note: All market information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

Commodity	Contract Month	Closing Price Mar 27	Change from Mar 26	Weekly Change
Corn	May	$4.62	-5¢	-3 1/2¢
Soybeans	May	$11.59 1/4	-14 1/2¢	-2¢
Soybean Meal	May	$315.30	-$6.80	-$12.70
Soybean Oil	May	67.41¢	-61 pts	+190 pts
SRW Wheat	May	$6.05	0	+9 3/4¢
HRW Wheat	May	$6.32 3/4	+6¢	+26 1/2¢
Spring Wheat	May	$6.48 1/4	+3 1/4¢	+20 1/4¢
Cotton	May	69.46¢	+5 pts	+215 pts
Live Cattle	April	$238.50	+$3.40	+$4.45
Feeder Cattle	May	$359.825	+$8.075	+$13.45
Lean Hogs	April	$90.775	-$0.05	-$0.50

—Commodity markets wrap: Grains retreat, livestock surge, cotton shines

Weekly price recap for major agricultural futures

The agricultural commodity complex ended a turbulent week on mixed footing Friday as a firmer U.S. dollar index and renewed risk aversion weighed heavily on the grain complex, while livestock and cotton markets delivered some of the week’s most convincing bullish technical signals.

Here is a full rundown of Friday’s session and weekly price changes across the major markets.

Corn: May corn fell 5 cents to $4.62, nearer the daily low and for the week down 3 1/2 cents. May corn futures saw some more corrective selling pressure after good gains Wednesday. A firmer U.S. dollar index and keener risk aversion in the general marketplace also helped to pressure corn Friday.
 

Soybeans: May soybeans fell 14 1/2 cents to $11.59 1/4, near the daily low and for the week down 2 cents. May soybean meal fell $6.80 to $315.30, near the session low and for the week down $12.70. May bean oil fell 61 points to 67.41 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week up 190 points. The soybean market Friday saw technical selling pressure as recent price action has formed a classic bear flag pattern on the daily bar charts for May and July futures.

Wheat: May SRW wheat closed steady at $6.05, near mid-range and for the week were up 9 3/4 cents. May HRW wheat gained 6 cents to $6.32 3/4, near mid-range and for the week up 26 1/2 cents. May spring wheat futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $6.48 1/4, nearer the daily high and for the week up 20 1/4 cents. The winter wheat futures markets bulls had a good week, overall. Price uptrends on the daily bar charts were restarted this week, which analysts say should continue to support some chart-based buying in the near term.

Cotton: May cotton futures rose 5 points to 69.46 cents, near mid-range after hitting a six-month high early on. For the week, May cotton was up 215 points. The cotton futures saw some mild profit-taking pressure Friday, but the bulls had a very good week, including restarting a price uptrend on the daily bar chart.

Cattle: April live cattle futures rose $3.40 to $238.50, near the daily high, hit a three-week high and for the week were up $4.45. May feeder cattle futures gained $8.075 to $359.825, near the daily high, hit a four-week high and for the week were up $13.45. The live cattle and feeder cattle futures markets finished the week strong, including technically bullish weekly high closes that analysts say suggest follow-through buying strength early next week.

Hogs: April lean hog futures fell $0.05 to $90.775, near mid-range and hit a 2.5-month low Friday. For the week, April hogs were down $0.50. The lean hog futures market spent much of this week consolidating as bulls are working to stabilize prices amid a near-term downtrend in place.

—Key commodity reports & market factors: week of March 30: 
The coming week is shaping up to be one of the most consequential for commodity markets in 2026. Major USDA reports converge simultaneously, layered on top of the standard weekly USDA report schedule and an unresolved geopolitical crisis that has reshaped global commodity flows since late February.

Scheduled USDA reports 

•Monday, March 30: USDA Weekly Export Inspections (9 a.m. ET).
This report measures actual physical shipments of grains like corn, soybeans, and wheat inspected at U.S. ports before departure. For the week ending March 19, corn inspections came in at 1.7 million metric tons, well above the same week a year ago, while soybeans topped 1.1 million MT and wheat reached 458,411 MT. Traders will be watching whether that pace continues as the marketing year progresses.

•Tuesday, March 31: USDA Prospective Plantings & Grain Stocks report (Noon ET).

The last business day of March brings Prospective Plantings, which reports the planting intentions of the nation’s farmers for principal crops, sourced from a survey of tens of thousands of farm operators. USDA will simultaneously release its quarterly Grain Stocks report, with inventories as of March 1. Together, the releases set the stage for the 2026 planting and early growing season, offering a baseline of what to expect for next year’s crop production.

The March Prospective Plantings report always warrants a high degree of market fanfare, acting as the first real hint into fundamentals for the upcoming crop year. For grain traders, it is typically the most market-moving scheduled USDA event of the first half of the year.

Why this year’s report is especially complicated. Analysts cautioned that the estimates, gleaned from farmer surveys conducted in the first half of March, could not fully account for disruptions and price impacts caused by the war with Iran, which began when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes across Iran on Feb. 28. As Terry Linn, analyst with Linn & Associates in Chicago, put it: “This particular planting intentions report, right out of the gates, is going to be viewed somewhat skeptically by the trade just because of the timing of the survey with the start of the war and how things have changed in terms of costs.”

StoneX commodities economist Arlan Suderman echoed that view, warning that the bulk of the USDA acreage surveys were returned in the first week of March, when most farmers were still thinking that perhaps this Iran war would be relatively short-lived, with fertilizer supplies already mostly in place for this year’s crops.

There is also the report’s known historical accuracy issue. The last five Prospective Plantings reports have underestimated final corn area by 1.6 million acres on average, while soybean area has been overestimated by an average of 1.9 million acres.

Reuters pre-report estimates by crop

Corn: Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, projected corn plantings to drop to 94.371 million acres, down from 98.788 million acres in 2025, which was the most since 1936. The Iran war-driven spike in nitrogen fertilizer costs is the central factor driving corn acres lower. Prices for urea fertilizer have jumped at least $200 per ton since the start of the war, while costs for anhydrous ammonia are up nearly 20%. StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman framed the key question: “The big question is not whether we see corn acres decline in 2026, but rather by how much. The spike in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer values due to the ongoing war in the Middle East have brought this question further into the spotlight, given the significantly greater input needs of corn relative to soybeans.”

A potential wildcard on the bullish side: The Trump administration on Friday  formally biofuel blending mandates through the Renewable Fuel Standard. It could boost corn demand expectations and support prices even against a bearish acreage backdrop, but this is more likely a scenario for the soybean complex — see next item.

Soybeans: Soybean seedings were seen at 85.549 million acres in the Reuters survey, up from 81.215 million a year ago. The range of estimates ran from 84.25 million to 86.5 million acres. The fundamental case for the shift is straightforward: given that nitrogen fertilizers are not used intensively on soybeans, higher nitrogen prices could also lead to a shift towards more soybean acres and fewer corn acres. However, the bearish supply picture for beans is significant. Private firm Agroconsult raised its estimate for 2026 Brazilian soybean production by 0.9% to a record 184.7 million metric tons following a field survey. A large U.S. planting number landing on top of that record South American crop could cap any soybean price rally following the report.

Spring Wheat: This is a potentially significant number for the wheat complex. Plantings of spring wheat, grown in the northern Plains, are forecast to drop to 9.843 million acres, down from 9.990 million last year and the lowest since 1970. Prices for the high-protein grain have slumped since a record Canadian harvest last year. The war is compounding the problem in the northern Plains: in North Dakota, the top spring wheat state, rising fertilizer costs and trade uncertainty are likely to prompt some farmers to choose corn or canola over soybeans and wheat. The price of urea fertilizer has jumped at least $200 per ton since the start of the war, representing an additional 40 to 50 cents per bushel needed just to cover that cost on a typical 50-bushel yield. Analysts say a number below the already-depressed estimate could spark a meaningful rally in spring wheat futures, adding to the uptrend that restarted this past week.

Cotton: CoBank’s analysis indicates U.S. cotton planted acreage will fall to 9.19 million acres, dropping 1% year over year to reach the lowest level in 11 years. Cotton acres in the South will migrate to soybeans, while irrigated cotton acres on the Plains will shift to corn. From a market reaction standpoint, a bearish acreage number may carry less weight than usual for cotton given the powerful drought-driven supply story — drought conditions across most of the U.S. cotton belt show that an area representing 88% of U.S. cotton production is experiencing drought, up from 33% a year ago.

USDA Prospective Plantings 2026

Pre-Report Analyst Estimates by Crop — March 31, 2026

Compiled from Reuters, Dow Jones, and AgMarket.Net surveys ahead of the USDA report release at 11:00 a.m. CDT (noon ET) on Tuesday, March 31, 2026. All figures in millions of acres (ma). Dashes (—) indicate no estimate available from that source.

Crop	Reuters Avg.	Dow Jones Avg.	AgMarket.Net	2025 Actual
Corn	94.371 ma	94.5 ma	94.4 ma	98.788 ma
Soybeans	85.549 ma	85.5 ma	86.1 ma	81.215 ma
Spring Wheat	9.843 ma	—	—	9.990 ma
All Wheat	—	—	44.7 ma	45.3 ma
Cotton	—	—	~9.19 ma	~9.3 ma

Key notes:

•  Reuters and Dow Jones averages are closely aligned on corn (94.371 vs. 94.5 ma) and soybeans (85.549 vs. 85.5 ma).

•  AgMarket.Net’s soybean estimate of 86.1 ma is the most bullish, above the Reuters average of 85.549 ma.

•  Spring wheat acres of 9.843 ma (Reuters) would be the lowest since 1970.

•  Cotton acreage near 9.19 ma would be an 11-year low, though severe drought (88% of production area) remains a bullish counterweight.

•  Survey timing caveat: bulk of farmer surveys were returned in early March, before the full impact of the Iran war on fertilizer costs was apparent. Traders are likely to view the report with some skepticism.

•The Grain Stocks report — also released Tuesday. 

Paired with Prospective Plantings is the March 1 Grain Stocks snapshot. 

For soybeans, the average trade guess for March 1 stocks is 2.077 billion bushels, which if true would be the largest March 1 reserves since 2020. Export demand continues to lag recent years due to the 2025 trade war with China, with second-quarter exports estimated at roughly 540 million bushels — the lowest since the first trade war from 2018–20. Crush, on the other hand, has continued its record pace, with an estimated 672 million bushels of soybeans processed through the December-to-March window, an 8.5% increase from the same point in 2025.

For corn, demand has been the standout story. Exports have been leading the charge, estimated at over 800 million bushels of shipments during the second quarter of the marketing year.

• Another key market factor: Strait of Hormuz / Middle East War

This is the dominant macro-overhang across the entire commodity complex. The U.S./Israel attacks on Iran have been the defining factor dominating commodity markets since they began on Saturday, Feb. 28. Crude oil gapped higher on March 2 and worked steadily higher, with prices really taking off the following Monday when Iran effectively stopped shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The war in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring. The eventual price trajectory will depend on the length of time that little to no traffic passes the Strait of Hormuz. Daily Brent crude pricing has already exceeded $100 per barrel. WTI was quoted near $100 heading into the week. IEA member countries released 400 million barrels of emergency reserves on March 11 — providing only a temporary bridge. The binary outcome of a ceasefire versus escalation represents the single largest known tail risk in commodity markets this week.

For grains specifically, Middle Eastern nations are major wheat buyers, and any disruption to shipping or peace talks will move those markets. President Trump has paused some U.S. bombing raids to reach peace; Iran has denied talks are happening, and the war expanded when Iran bombed infrastructure in Gulf states.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Friday: Oil extends rally as Iran conflict risk premium deepens

Markets price prolonged disruption, with Hormuz constraints and supply losses tightening global balances

Oil prices pushed higher Friday, capping another week of gains as traders increasingly bet the Iran conflict will drag on rather than resolve quickly.

Brent crude rose $4.56 to settle at $112.57 per barrel. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $5.16 to $99.64.

Since late February — just before the escalation involving Iran — Brent has surged roughly 53%, with WTI up about 45%. Weekly gains were more modest but still positive, with Brent up about 0.3% and WTI advancing over 1%.

The market continues to focus less on diplomatic rhetoric and more on the duration and severity of supply disruptions. A significant geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in prices, driven by fears of prolonged constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and potential damage to critical energy infrastructure.

An estimated 11 million barrels per day of global supply has been removed from the market, sharply tightening balances. Restricted flows through Hormuz have further compounded supply strain, reinforcing bullish price pressure.

Looking ahead, traders see a wide range of outcomes. A de-escalation could trigger a pullback — though likely leaving prices elevated relative to pre-war levels. However, a prolonged disruption or escalation scenario could send crude materially higher, with some estimates pointing toward $200 per barrel in an extended supply shock.

Adding to uncertainty, Russian producers have warned of potential export disruptions from Baltic Sea routes following continued attacks on energy infrastructure, further tightening the global supply outlook.

CONGRESS

—House GOP rejects Senate DHS deal, exposing Republican divisions

Speaker Johnson pushes short-term funding plan as Trump and conservatives oppose Senate approach

House Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), rejected a Senate-passed bipartisan deal to fund key parts of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), highlighting deep divisions within the GOP over border and immigration policy.

Johnson sharply criticized the Senate agreement — backed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) — which would have funded agencies like TSA, FEMA, and the Coast Guard immediately, while delaying funding decisions on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and border enforcement. He called the maneuver a “joke” and argued it failed to meet House Republicans’ core demand to fully fund border security upfront.

Instead, Johnson is advancing an eight-week stopgap funding bill, though it faces slim prospects in the Senate. The move comes after consultation with President Donald Trump, who also criticized the Senate deal as “not appropriate,” reinforcing House conservatives’ opposition.

The clash underscores broader GOP tensions between the House and Senate, with House leaders accusing Senate Republicans of conceding too much to Democrats, who have pushed to separate border enforcement funding from broader DHS appropriations. Conservative groups, including the House Freedom Caucus, quickly rallied behind Johnson, arguing the Senate plan would effectively weaken immigration enforcement.

Still, the strategy carries political risk. Some moderate Republicans worry voters could blame the House for prolonging a funding standoff, particularly after the Senate appeared to advance a bipartisan solution. However, Trump’s executive action to maintain TSA operations may blunt public pressure by limiting visible disruptions, especially at airports.

Upshot: The standoff leaves DHS funding unresolved heading into a congressional recess, setting up a high-stakes negotiation over border policy, shutdown risks, and GOP unity in the weeks ahead.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: A chilly Saturday across the southern and eastern U.S. will transition into a milder pattern by the start of the work week… … Fire weather concerns will prevail across the Plains and Southeast for Saturday… … A cold front will bring blustery showers and thunderstorms to Florida over the weekend.