Where’s Year-Round E15 Legislation?
Is another farmer aid package needed? The debate begins
| LINKS |
Link: Weekend Updates, March 7
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Interview with USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden)
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Vaden interview)
| The Week Ahead: March 8, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Debate begins: Is another farmer aid package necessary?
Senate GOP leaders — including Sens. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and John Hoeven (R-N.D.) — are weighing whether emergency farm aid should be attached to a broader supplemental spending bill that could also fund disaster relief and defense priorities. The discussion reflects continued financial stress in parts of the agricultural economy, though some analysts argue ARC and crop insurance programs may already provide adequate support for many corn and soybean producers. Other sectors — particularly cotton, sorghum, and sugar — continue to press for additional assistance. No final decision has been made on whether agricultural aid will be included in the package.
— Tariff refund system in the works after Supreme Court ruling
U.S. Customs and Border Protection says it expects to launch a refund system within about 45 days to repay tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump that were struck down by the Supreme Court. The effort could return roughly $166 billion to about 330,000 importers through the agency’s ACE filing system, covering more than 53 million shipments. Courts are allowing time to establish the process as refund lawsuits from major companies continue.
— WaPo commentary: Breaking up meatpackers would raise beef prices, not lower them
A Washington Post Editorial Board commentary argues that proposals from Senate Democrats — led by Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) — to force meatpacking companies to specialize in a single protein could increase costs rather than lower food prices. The editorial contends that limited cattle supplies, not industry consolidation, are the main driver of high beef prices, noting the U.S. herd is near a 75-year low.
— U.S., Mexico set March 16 launch for USMCA review talks
The United States and Mexico will begin formal preparations for the 2026 review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement on March 16 in Washington. Canada is expected to join later. Officials say early discussions will focus on supply chains, rules of origin, and reducing reliance on imports from outside North America as the pact’s future extension comes into view.
CONGRESS & WASHINGTON
— Congressional schedule and geopolitical focus
The Senate is in session this week while the House remains in recess. Much of Washington’s attention is focused on the war involving Iran and its ripple effects on global energy supplies and prices for oil, gasoline, diesel, fertilizer, and other inputs important to agriculture.
— Gasoline prices jump as Iran conflict drives oil shock
U.S. gasoline prices rose 14% in a week to about $3.41 per gallon as oil markets reacted to supply disruptions tied to the conflict with Iran. Crude prices surged to roughly $90 per barrel as tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf slowed, raising concerns about higher diesel and fuel costs for transportation and agriculture.
— Trump threatens legislative freeze to force Senate action on SAVE Act
President Donald Trump said he will not sign other legislation until the Senate passes the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which would require proof of U.S. citizenship and voter identification. Senate Democrats strongly oppose the measure, leaving its prospects uncertain despite House approval.
— Feenstra keeps saying year-round E15 legislation is near
Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) says bipartisan negotiations continue on legislation to allow permanent nationwide sales of E15 gasoline. Supporters argue the change would expand ethanol demand and support corn markets, though the proposal must still balance concerns from refinery interests.
— Cold weather diesel reliability debate heads to Senate EPW
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will examine the “Cold Weather Diesel Reliability Act of 2025,” legislation addressing winter diesel gelling concerns that could affect trucking, farm equipment, and heating systems. Lawmakers will weigh whether fuel standards tied to renewable fuels require regional flexibility.
— Diesel reliability debate intersects with E15 push
The diesel reliability debate highlights the broader challenge for farm-state lawmakers: promoting biofuel demand through policies like year-round E15 while ensuring diesel blends used in agriculture and freight systems remain reliable during extreme winter conditions.
— Senate Ag Committee hearing on boosting domestic farm demand
The Senate Agriculture Committee will explore ways to expand domestic consumption of U.S. agricultural products, including biofuels, nutrition programs, commodity checkoffs, and new food manufacturing opportunities. Farm groups see stronger domestic demand as a stabilizing force amid weaker commodity prices and uncertain export markets.
— Senate Finance subcommittee to examine long-term fiscal outlook
The Senate Finance Committee’s Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth Subcommittee will hold a hearing on the federal fiscal outlook from 2027–2036, featuring testimony from Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel. Lawmakers are expected to focus on rising federal debt, growing interest costs, and long-term economic implications.
KEY EVENTS
— Major policy conferences, hearings, and forums across Washington
The week features a wide range of events covering agriculture, tax policy, energy security, financial markets, technology, and global geopolitics. Highlights include the National Farmers Union convention, Senate hearings on agricultural demand and diesel reliability, cybersecurity and technology conferences, and multiple policy forums on the Iran conflict, supply chains, and critical minerals.
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS
— Inflation data to test Fed outlook amid energy shock
Key inflation reports this week — including the Consumer Price Index and the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures gauge — will provide new signals on price pressures after a weak February jobs report. Rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict could push inflation higher in coming months, though the data being released largely reflect conditions before the recent energy shock.
AG REPORTS
— USDA reports set tone for grain and livestock markets
A heavy schedule of USDA releases will shape market expectations, led by Tuesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report along with global trade outlooks, crop production data, export inspections, and multiple ERS commodity outlook reports covering grains, oilseeds, cotton, livestock, and dairy.
ENERGY REPORTS
— Global oil and fuel market updates dominate energy calendar
Energy markets will closely watch weekly inventory data, the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, OPEC and IEA market reports, and ethanol production figures. These releases arrive amid heightened volatility in crude markets tied to Middle East supply disruptions and shifting global demand signals.
TOP STORIES—Debate begins: Is another farmer aid package necessary? Senate GOP leaders weigh supplemental aid for farmers as Sens. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and John Hoeven (R-N.D.) suggest agriculture relief could be paired with disaster and defense funding package. This past week the two senators signaled support for including emergency assistance for farmers in a potential supplemental spending package, citing continued financial stress across the agricultural economy. Link for details. As discussions intensify in Congress over a possible additional funding bill — potentially tied to military spending and disaster relief — the two lawmakers indicated agriculture aid could be part of the broader package. Hoeven suggested that combining priorities could help build support on Capitol Hill. “I think we get critical mass for a supplemental, because I think they want funding for the California fires, we want funding for agriculture,” Hoeven said. Boozman also indicated that attaching farm assistance to a larger funding measure may be the most practical path forward, telling reporters that doing so is “probably the best thing to do.” Earlier this year, the two chairmen unveiled a proposal aimed at strengthening the farm safety net. According to the Senate Ag Committee, the framework would provide additional support for row crops, specialty crops and sugar beets, address prevent-plant coverage, and better account for producers’ basis levels and rising costs of production. Emergency disaster assistance is also expected to be part of the discussion. Lawmakers are considering aid for crop losses tied to natural disasters in 2025 and 2026, including damage from recent freeze events. No final decision has been made on whether agricultural assistance will ultimately be included in the supplemental legislation.But some farmers and others say additional farm aid is not needed… at least this year. Says one ag industry contact: “I have printed very few profit analysis grids (90 combinations of yield & price) with losses in 2026. I was using RP SCO ECO, adding in expected ARC payments, forward contracting 30% of the crop at today’s new crop prices, and subtracting cost of production. The thing most are missing is the ARC guarantee in most of the Belt. In the east, because we dropped off 2019 which was a bad year from the Olympic average, the Olympic average yield is really high. In some cases the ARC guarantee is $100/acre higher than the 95% ECO guarantee. Corn & beans don’t need more aid. Once we hit the 2025 ARC/PLC payment in Oct., we most likely won’t need ad hoc disaster until possibly 2029. That is when we lose the high prices from 2022 in the Olympic average for corn and beans.” But stakeholders for others crops and regions of the country say additional aid is needed, primarily when one looks at the financial situation among cotton, sorghum and sugar producers.  —Tariff refund system in the works after Supreme Court rulingCustoms officials say a new process could return $166 billion in duties to importers within weeks U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) says it expects to have a system ready within 45 days to begin refunding tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump that were recently struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court as unconstitutional. The refunds could total about $166 billion and affect roughly 330,000 importers, making it one of the largest trade repayment efforts ever undertaken by the U.S. government. A CBP official told the U.S. Court of International Trade that the agency is developing a streamlined process requiring minimal documentation from importers, who would file declarations through the agency’s Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) system. Once verified, refunds — including interest — would be issued as single payments from the U.S. Treasury, regardless of how many shipments were involved. The update came as the trade court considers how to implement a sweeping order requiring the government to repay the tariffs. Judge Richard Eaton modified his earlier directive that demanded immediate compliance, acknowledging that CBP needs time to build a workable system for processing the massive volume of claims. The scale of the refund effort is significant. Officials estimate that more than 53 million shipments were subject to the invalidated tariffs. Manually reviewing each entry could require over 4 million hours of labor, according to CBP. So far, participation in the electronic system has been limited — only about 21,000 of the 330,000 affected importers have registered. Meanwhile, lawsuits seeking refunds continue to mount, including new cases filed by affiliates of Nintendo and CVS, even as the court works toward a broader administrative refund process that would allow companies to recover payments without filing suit. —WaPo commentary: Breaking up meatpackers would raise beef prices, not lower themWashington Post editorial argues that proposed legislation targeting large meatpacking firms would increase costs by fragmenting an already complex and low-margin industry In a March 6 commentary (link), the Washington Post Editorial Board argues that proposals from Chuck Schumer and other Senate Democrats to break up large meatpacking companies would likely push beef prices even higher rather than bring relief to consumers. The editorial contends that the policy misdiagnoses the cause of high meat prices and risks undermining the efficiency of a tightly integrated industry. Proposal targets large integrated processors. The Democratic proposal would force major meat companies to specialize in a single protein — preventing firms that process chicken, beef, and pork from operating across multiple segments. That rule would effectively require companies such as Tyson Foods and Cargill to sell or spin off parts of their operations. The bill would also give the Federal Trade Commission expanded authority to require foreign-owned meat companies to divest U.S. assets. Supporters argue that industry consolidation — where four firms process roughly 80% of U.S. beef — contributes to high consumer prices. Editorial argues consolidation is not the main price driver. The editorial board counters that consolidation alone does not explain higher beef prices and notes that large processors often deliver lower prices than smaller competitors because of scale efficiencies. The industry also operates on thin margins. According to the commentary, Tyson Foods posted a net profit margin of just 0.9% last fiscal year, while Cargill’s margin was estimated at slightly above 2% in 2023. Breaking these companies into smaller entities could increase production costs and ultimately raise retail prices. Supply constraints — not structure — driving prices. Instead, the editorial points to supply fundamentals as the primary reason beef prices have risen. The U.S. cattle herd is currently at its lowest level in roughly 75 years, while consumer demand for beef remains strong. With fewer animals available for slaughter, prices for products such as ground beef rose about 17% last year. Expanding supply — including through greater imports — would be a more effective way to reduce costs, the editorial argues, though rancher opposition makes that politically difficult. Subsidies for small processors questioned. The proposed legislation also includes subsidies, loan guarantees, and financial assistance intended to help smaller companies acquire and operate meatpacking plants after a breakup of larger firms. Industry groups warn that such an approach would undermine efficiency. Julie Anna Potts, CEO of the North American Meat Institute, compared the idea to forcing an automaker like Ford Motor Company to produce only one type of vehicle while selling off the rest of its business. According to the editorial, meatpacking facilities are expensive, capital-intensive, and dependent on scale to operate efficiently and safely — making forced fragmentation likely to increase costs throughout the supply chain. Political debate intensifying. The debate reflects broader political pressure over food affordability. Rising grocery prices have become a major economic issue, particularly as policymakers from both parties search for ways to address consumer costs. But the editorial concludes that targeting industry structure may be misguided. Without addressing the fundamental issue of limited cattle supply, the policy could leave consumers paying even more for beef rather than less. —U.S., Mexico set March 16 launch for USMCA review talksCanada expected to join later as Washington and Mexico begin bilateral discussions on supply chains, rules of origin, and regional trade integration The U.S. and Mexico will begin the first round of formal talks on March 16 in Washington, D.C. to prepare for the 2026 Joint Review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), with Canada expected to join negotiations at a later stage. Agenda. Mexico’s Economy Ministry and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said the opening session will focus on defining the scope of the review process and identifying priorities for strengthening North American trade integration. Mexico comments. In a video posted on social media, Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said he and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer agreed to begin discussions aimed at “reviewing the USMCA” and deepening regional economic cooperation. According to a March 5 statement from USTR, the two governments instructed negotiators to begin “scoping discussions” on measures to ensure the agreement’s benefits accrue primarily to North American partners. Key topics include reducing reliance on imports from outside the region, strengthening rules of origin, and improving supply-chain security across the continent. The two countries plan to meet regularly following the initial session as preparations intensify ahead of the formal 2026 review required under the trade pact. Bilateral talks expected to shape early negotiations. Canada will not participate in the opening session but is expected to join at a later stage. Mexican officials indicated that Mexico and Canada will hold separate bilateral discussions in the coming weeks, focusing on trade cooperation and security issues. The bilateral approach has been anticipated for months. Officials from both the United States and Mexico signaled last year that much of the preparatory work for the review could occur through separate country-to-country negotiations, rather than exclusively through trilateral meetings. Review will determine USMCA’s future timeline. Under the agreement’s terms, the first mandatory review of USMCA occurs in 2026. If all three countries agree that the pact remains beneficial, the agreement will automatically extend its expiration timeline by six years — from 2036 to 2042. If consensus is not reached this year, the parties must conduct annual reviews until a renewal agreement is achieved. Trade tensions and policy concerns remain. Ahead of the talks, USTR officials have flagged several issues they believe conflict with the spirit of the agreement. These include Mexico’s support for state-owned energy companies and concerns over labor enforcement, though U.S. officials also note strong support for the pact from American businesses. Despite some ongoing disputes and tariffs — including duties affecting trucks, metals, and Mexican tomatoes — the agreement has strengthened trade ties. Since USMCA replaced NAFTA, Mexico has become the United States’ largest trading partner, reflecting deepening supply-chain integration across North America. The March negotiations will begin the process of determining whether the trade pact continues in its current form or faces significant revisions ahead of the 2026 review deadline. |
| —CONGRESS & WASHINGTON |
—The Senate is in session this week while the House is in recess.
The focus in Washington and around the country is on the war with Iran and its market impacts, primarily on supply and demand and prices of oil, gas, diesel, fertilizer and other inputs.
—Gasoline prices jump as Iran conflict drives oil shock
U.S. pump prices rise 14% in a week as crude surges and Persian Gulf supply disruptions ripple through energy markets
U.S. gasoline prices surged sharply the past week as the conflict involving Iran disrupted global oil supplies, pushing up crude prices and driving the national average pump price to $3.41 per gallon, according to AAA. The increase marks a 14% jump in just one week and the highest gasoline prices in the U.S. since 2024, highlighting the immediate economic ripple effects of the escalating geopolitical crisis.
The spike stems from the effective disruption of oil shipments from the Persian Gulf after the U.S./Israeli attacks on Iran, which has curtailed tanker traffic through the region and temporarily cut off roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.
As a result, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged more than 35% during the week to $90.90 per barrel, its highest level since 2023. Rising crude prices are quickly feeding into higher costs for refined fuels, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Prices vary widely across the country due to differences in taxes, refining capacity, and distribution costs. Drivers in California are paying the highest average prices at $5.08 per gallon, while motorists in Kansas face the lowest prices at about $2.90 per gallon.
Energy economists warn that even if the supply disruption proves temporary, the short-term price shock could still strain household budgets and the broader economy. Wayne Winegarden of the Pacific Research Institute noted that a sudden spike in energy costs can “significantly squeeze people’s budgets,” even if prices eventually retreat.
President Donald Trump, whose administration is overseeing the military operation against Iran, acknowledged the potential for higher fuel prices but suggested the geopolitical objectives outweigh the economic impact. In comments to Reuters, Trump said gasoline prices could rise but would likely fall again once the conflict ends.
While the U.S. could theoretically draw on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, analysts note the reserve is designed primarily for supply emergencies rather than for managing market prices. Even if a release occurred, most experts believe it would offer only temporary relief to the market.
—Trump threatens legislative freeze to force Senate action on SAVE Act
President says he will withhold signatures on other bills until voter-ID and proof-of-citizenship legislation clears the Senate
President Donald Trump said Sunday he will refuse to sign any legislation into law until the Senate passes the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, escalating pressure on Senate Republicans to prioritize the voting bill ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
In a Truth Social post, Trump insisted the measure “supersedes everything else,” calling for strict voter identification requirements and proof of U.S. citizenship to vote. He also reiterated support for limiting mail-in ballots to military personnel and voters with illness or disability.
The president urged John Thune (R-S.D.), the Senate majority leader, to employ a “talking filibuster” strategy that would force Senate Democrats to hold the floor continuously if they want to block the bill. Once Democrats relinquish the floor, Republicans could potentially move the legislation forward with a simple majority vote rather than the usual 60-vote threshold required to overcome a filibuster. Trump praised conservative activist Scott Pressler for promoting the tactic on television and said the bill should be moved “to the front of the line.”
The SAVE Act — which has been approved by the House multiple times, most recently in February — has strong backing among House Republicans. However, Senate Democrats strongly oppose the legislation, arguing the citizenship documentation requirements could complicate voter registration and potentially suppress turnout among eligible voters.
Thune has so far resisted calls to alter Senate rules to bypass the chamber’s 60-vote threshold, maintaining the procedural standard he pledged to preserve when seeking the majority leader post. As a result, the bill faces uncertain prospects in the Senate despite Trump’s demand that it move ahead of other legislative priorities.
—Feenstra keeps saying year-round E15 legislation is near
Iowa Republican says bipartisan negotiations are advancing as lawmakers push to permanently allow summer sales of higher-ethanol fuel blends
Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) says Congress is moving closer to passing legislation that would permanently allow year-round nationwide sales of E15, a long-sought priority for corn growers and the ethanol industry. But he has been saying that for the last few weeks.
Feenstra, who serves as co-chair of the House Rural Domestic Energy Council, has repeatedly said in recent weeks that lawmakers are making progress toward a bipartisan proposal designed to eliminate the long-standing summer restriction on E15 — gasoline blended with 15% ethanol.
Current federal rules tied to the Clean Air Act effectively prohibit E15 sales in many parts of the country during the summer months due to air-quality regulations. Congress has periodically relied on temporary waivers from the Environmental Protection Agency to allow sales during peak driving season, but farm-state lawmakers argue the situation creates uncertainty for fuel retailers and ethanol producers.
Feenstra and other supporters say permanent authorization would expand ethanol demand, strengthen domestic biofuel markets, and support U.S. corn producers at a time when farm margins remain under pressure.
The Rural Domestic Energy Council was formed after earlier legislative efforts to secure permanent year-round E15 authority stalled in Congress. Lawmakers on the panel have been working with agricultural groups, ethanol producers, and petroleum stakeholders to craft a compromise proposal capable of passing both chambers.
A draft framework under discussion would:
• Allow nationwide year-round sales of E15, removing the current summer restriction tied to federal air-quality rules.
• Adjust how small refinery hardship exemptions are handled under the Renewable Fuel Standard.
• Attempt to balance demands from corn producers and biofuel groups with concerns from independent refiners.
Supporters contend that allowing uninterrupted E15 sales would provide consumers with additional fuel options while boosting demand for renewable fuels. Critics — particularly some refinery interests — have raised concerns about regulatory impacts and fuel-market adjustments.
Despite the unresolved issues, Feenstra continues to signal confidence that lawmakers are nearing an agreement and that legislation enabling permanent year-round E15 sales could move soon. Feenstra told reporters and farm groups that the House Legislative Counsel has been drafting a bill with the goal of introducing the measure once lawmakers return from recess later in March. Not sure if that is the definition of “soon.”
—Cold weather diesel reliability debate heads to Senate EPW
Lawmakers examine whether federal biofuel and fuel standards are contributing to winter diesel supply problems
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hold a hearing Wed., March 11, on S 3135, the “Cold Weather Diesel Reliability Act of 2025,” legislation aimed at addressing operational problems that can arise when diesel fuel is exposed to extreme cold temperatures. The hearing will examine whether federal fuel regulations — particularly those affecting biodiesel blending and diesel specifications — may be contributing to winter reliability issues in colder regions of the United States.
Why the issue is coming before Congress. Diesel fuel can gel or form wax crystals when temperatures fall sharply, a phenomenon known as “cold flow” problems. When this happens, fuel filters can clog and engines may stall or fail to start — posing risks for trucks, farm equipment, emergency vehicles, and heating systems that rely on diesel.
The issue has drawn increasing attention in northern states where winter temperatures routinely drop well below freezing. Lawmakers from those regions have argued that certain federal policies — including renewable fuel blending mandates — may worsen cold weather performance if the fuel mixture is not properly adjusted.
Biodiesel and renewable diesel blends, while widely used to meet renewable fuel targets, can have higher cloud points than conventional petroleum diesel depending on the feedstock used. This means wax crystals may form at warmer temperatures compared with standard diesel.
Supporters of the legislation argue that federal rules do not sufficiently account for these regional differences.
Key provisions under discussion. While details of S 3135 are expected to be examined during the hearing, proposals associated with the legislation generally focus on:
• Allowing greater flexibility in diesel blending requirements during winter months
• Requiring federal agencies to assess the cold weather operability of diesel fuel blends
• Ensuring fuel specifications better reflect regional climate conditions
• Protecting critical sectors such as agriculture, freight transportation, and emergency services from fuel disruptions
The debate often centers on the interaction between diesel reliability and policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) administered by the Environmental Protection Agency.
Agricultural and freight sector concerns. Cold weather diesel reliability has particular relevance for agriculture. Farm equipment — including tractors, combines, and grain transport trucks — depends heavily on diesel fuel, and winter fieldwork, livestock feeding operations, and transportation logistics can all be disrupted by fuel gelling.
Trucking associations have also raised concerns about winter diesel operability, warning that supply disruptions can cascade through the freight system and affect food and energy distribution.
In northern states across the Midwest and Northern Plains, farm groups have increasingly urged Congress to examine whether federal fuel policies unintentionally increase operational risks during severe winter weather.
Biofuel industry perspective. Biofuel producers and renewable fuel advocates typically counter that modern fuel handling practices — including the use of cold flow additives, winter blending techniques, and improved refining processes — largely mitigate the risk. They also note that renewable diesel, which is chemically similar to petroleum diesel, generally performs better in cold conditions than traditional biodiesel blends.
Industry groups warn that overly broad exemptions or limits on biofuel blending could undermine national energy security goals and the domestic biofuels market.
Broader policy context. The hearing also fits into a broader congressional debate over fuel policy as the Trump administration moves forward with new renewable fuel policies and biofuel incentives. Discussions about diesel reliability intersect with several major policy areas:
• Renewable Fuel Standard volumes and blending mandates
• Tax incentives tied to low-carbon fuels and sustainable aviation fuel
• Energy security concerns tied to global oil disruptions
• Agricultural demand for soybean oil and other biofuel feedstocks
Given the importance of biofuels to U.S. farm income — particularly for soybean growers — lawmakers will likely face pressure to balance winter reliability concerns with the economic role of biofuel markets.
What lawmakers will be looking for. During the hearing, senators are expected to question witnesses on several issues:
• The frequency and severity of diesel gelling incidents
• Whether federal fuel standards require regional adjustments
• The role of additives and refining practices in preventing cold weather failures
• Potential impacts on biofuel demand and agricultural markets
The discussion could ultimately shape whether Congress moves forward with legislation adjusting diesel fuel regulations or whether agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy address the issue administratively.
| — Cold Weather Diesel Debate Intersects with Push for Year-Round E15Lawmakers balance fuel reliability concerns with efforts to expand ethanol demand The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing comes as farm groups and many farm-state lawmakers continue pressing Congress to approve permanent year-round E15 gasoline sales. While the issues involve different fuels — ethanol blended into gasoline versus biodiesel blended into diesel — both are tied to the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) administered by the Environmental Protection Agency. Supporters of the diesel legislation argue that biodiesel blends can face cold-flow challenges in extremely low temperatures, potentially affecting trucks, farm equipment, and heating systems if fuel mixtures are not adjusted for winter conditions. Farm organizations backing E15 — including the National Corn Growers Association and Renewable Fuels Association — say the diesel issue should not be conflated with ethanol policy. Ethanol affects gasoline markets, while cold-weather operability concerns focus primarily on biodiesel. The political challenge for farm-state lawmakers is managing both debates at once — promoting expanded ethanol demand through year-round E15 while ensuring diesel fuels used by agriculture and freight systems remain reliable during extreme winter conditions. |
—Senate Ag Committee to examine ways to boost domestic demand for U.S. farm products
Lawmakers and commodity groups expected to highlight biofuels, nutrition programs, and new market opportunities
The Senate Ag panel will hold a hearing March 10 titled “Increasing Domestic Consumption of U.S.-Grown Agricultural Products,” bringing together farm and commodity organizations to discuss how federal policy can help expand demand for American-produced food, feed, fiber, and biofuels.
The hearing comes as farm groups increasingly emphasize demand-side policy solutions amid weak commodity prices, rising input costs, and slower export growth. Witnesses from several agricultural organizations are expected to outline strategies ranging from expanding biofuel markets to strengthening nutrition programs and domestic processing capacity.
Focus on demand growth as farm economy softens. With net farm income projected to decline from recent highs and several commodity sectors facing oversupply, lawmakers are turning their attention to domestic consumption as a stabilizing force for farm prices. Committee leaders from both parties have recently highlighted the importance of developing stronger internal markets alongside export promotion.
Programs likely to feature prominently in the hearing include:
•Biofuels expansion — particularly increased ethanol and biodiesel blending, including year-round E15 and sustainable aviation fuel development.
•Nutrition programs — such as school meals and food assistance programs that rely heavily on U.S.-produced commodities.
•Domestic processing and manufacturing — encouraging food production and value-added agriculture within the United States.
•Commodity checkoff programs — industry-funded marketing campaigns designed to boost consumption of products like beef, pork, dairy, and soy.
•Local and regional food systems — expanding access to U.S.-grown foods through farmers markets, regional processing hubs, and institutional procurement.
Several commodity groups are expected to argue that domestic demand policies can provide more predictable growth than export markets, which are increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions and trade disputes.
Biofuels likely central to discussion. Biofuel demand — particularly ethanol and biodiesel made from corn and soybeans — is expected to be a major focus of testimony. Agricultural groups have argued that federal fuel policies represent one of the largest drivers of domestic crop demand, particularly through programs tied to the Renewable Fuel Standard and emerging sustainable aviation fuel incentives. Expanding year-round E15 gasoline sales has been a top priority for many Midwestern lawmakers and farm organizations, who contend that higher ethanol blends could significantly increase corn demand while lowering fuel costs for consumers.
Nutrition programs and food procurement. Witnesses are also likely to stress the role of federal nutrition programs — including school lunch programs and food assistance initiatives — in supporting domestic agriculture. Farm organizations frequently point to these programs as a stable, long-term demand base for commodities such as dairy, fruits, vegetables, grains, and meat products. Several lawmakers have also promoted initiatives encouraging schools, military installations, and federal agencies to prioritize purchasing U.S.-grown foods.
Checkoff programs and consumer marketing. Commodity organizations are also expected to highlight the importance of industry-funded marketing campaigns. Programs such as the “Beef. It’s What’s for Dinner.” and “Got Milk?” campaigns — funded through commodity checkoffs — have historically played a significant role in boosting consumer awareness and demand. Some witnesses may urge Congress to protect checkoff programs from policy challenges and expand promotional efforts tied to health messaging and new product uses.
Broader farm policy context. The hearing reflects a broader shift in farm policy discussions toward stimulating demand rather than solely managing supply. For many commodities, long-term price strength depends less on acreage controls and more on creating new uses for agricultural products — particularly in energy, manufacturing, and food innovation. With global trade tensions and supply chain disruptions affecting exports in recent years, policymakers increasingly view domestic consumption growth as a key pillar of farm-sector stability. The hearing will provide lawmakers with recommendations that could influence upcoming farm policy debates, including legislation related to biofuels, nutrition programs, and domestic food procurement.
—Senate Finance Subcommittee to examine long-term fiscal outlook
CBO Director Phillip Swagel to testify as lawmakers weigh mounting deficits, rising debt, and implications for economic growth
The Senate Finance Committee’s Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth Subcommittee will hold a Wednesday hearing titled “The Fiscal Outlook: 2027–2036,” focusing on the federal government’s long-term budget trajectory and the economic risks associated with sustained deficits and rising national debt. The panel is expected to feature testimony from Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Phillip Swagel, who will present updated projections on federal spending, revenue, and debt over the coming decade.
The hearing comes as policymakers face intensifying concern about the nation’s fiscal path. Under recent CBO projections, federal debt held by the public is expected to continue climbing as a share of the economy over the next decade, driven largely by rising spending on entitlement programs and growing interest costs on the debt. Swagel is expected to outline how demographic trends — particularly the retirement of the baby-boom generation — are pushing spending higher for Social Security, Medicare, and other health programs.
Debt trajectory and interest costs dominate outlook. One of the central issues expected to dominate the hearing is the rapid increase in federal interest payments. As borrowing accumulates and interest rates remain higher than in the previous decade, the cost of servicing the debt has become one of the fastest-growing components of the federal budget. CBO projections suggest interest payments could rival or exceed major federal spending categories within the coming decade.
Deficit impacts. Lawmakers on the subcommittee are also expected to explore how persistent deficits — projected to average well above historical norms — could affect long-term economic growth. Economists often warn that sustained federal borrowing can crowd out private investment, potentially slowing productivity growth and wage gains.
Swagel’s testimony will likely emphasize that the fiscal outlook is shaped by both spending pressures and structural revenue challenges. While federal revenues fluctuate with economic conditions and tax policy changes, the major drivers of long-term spending growth — health care costs, aging demographics, and interest payments — are largely structural.
Policy debate intensifies in Washington. The hearing also occurs amid renewed debate in Congress about fiscal responsibility, especially as lawmakers consider major spending packages and potential tax policy changes in the coming years. Several members of the Senate Finance Committee have argued that failure to address the long-term fiscal outlook could constrain future economic growth and limit the government’s ability to respond to crises.
Meanwhile, other policymakers contend that deficit reduction must be balanced against the need to support economic growth and maintain investments in areas such as infrastructure, national security, and social programs.
Bottom Line: The subcommittee hearing is expected to provide lawmakers with a detailed briefing on the long-term fiscal trajectory ahead of key budget debates later this year, including discussions surrounding tax policy, entitlement reforms, and the federal debt ceiling.
| —KEY EVENTS |
Mon., March 9
• School Nutrition Association legislative action conference, through Tuesday, Wash., DC.
• National Farmers Union convention, New Orleans.
•American Feed Industry Association’s annual Purchasing & Ingredient Suppliers Conference, a gathering of buyers and sellers of feed and pet food ingredients. Fort Worth, Texas, through Wednesday.
•Middle East war. Foreign Policy webinar on “Is Trump’s War in Iran Justified?”
•Iran war energy shipping risks. Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum on “Energy and Shipping Risks in the Iran War.”
• Is Cuba next. Foreign Policy virtual discussion on “Is Cuba Next?”
•Wealth of nations. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on “Why Adam Smith Still Matters: 250 Years of The Wealth of Nations.”
• China critical minerals. Council on Foreign Relations discussion on a new report, “Leapfrogging China’s Critical Minerals Dominance – How Innovation Can Secure U.S. Supply Chains.”
•SEC and small businesses. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 45th annual Small Business Forum.
•Cybersecurity. Billington CyberSecurity 16th annual Billington CyberSecurity Summit; runs through Wednesday.
Tue., March 10
• Boost domestic consumption of U.S. agricultural products. Senate Ag Committee hearing on “Increasing Domestic Consumption of U.S.-Grown Agricultural Products.” Several farm and commodity organizations testify. See item above for background information.
•Global food system. Farm Foundation virtual forum on “Global Productivity, Power Shifts, and the Future of the Global Food System.”
• Tax policy. U.S. Chamber of Commerce 2026 Tax Policy Summit on “Unleashing Growth Through Tax Policy Stability at Home and Abroad.”
• Bankers’ meeting. American Bankers Association 2026 Washington Summit; runs through Wednesday.
•Vehicle automation. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration meeting to provide updates and insights into ongoing vehicle automation activities across NHTSA.
•Current events. Punchbowl News second conference with “key leaders from the public and private sectors for timely conversations on the ever-evolving power dynamics shaping Capitol Hill and the biggest issues driving the news.”
•U.S./Japan cooperation. Hudson Institute discussion on “U.S./Japan Cooperation on Naval Maintenance, Commercial Shipbuilding, and Shipping.”
•Sanctuary cities. Senate Budget Committee hearing on “Sanctuary Cities: The Cost of Undermining Law and Order.”
•Spectrum policy, broadband. Technology Policy Institute virtual discussion on “Spectrum Policy, World Radiocommunications Conference-27 and other topics such as BEAD (Broadband, Equity, Access and Deployment) and permitting reform.”
• U.S. policy on Somalia. Arab Center Washington, D.C. virtual discussion on “U.S. Policy toward Somalia: Regional Geopolitics and Somali Americans.”
•AI and the labor market. Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project; the Budget Lab at Yale; and the Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a forum on “AI + work: Understanding AI’s impact on the labor market.”
• American citizenship. Senate Judiciary Constitution Subcommittee hearing on “Protecting American Citizenship: Birthright Citizenship for Illegal Aliens and Tourists.”
• Fintech. Urban Institute discussion on “The Future of FinTech: How Emerging Financial Technologies Are Shaping Our Financial Lives.”
Wed.,March 11
• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on Supervision and Regulation in Washington, DC. Note: Her remarks cannot include comments on current monetary policy or the current economic situation.
•Fiscal outlook. Senate Finance Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth Subcommittee hearing on “The Fiscal Outlook: 2027-2036.” CBO Director Phillip Swagel among those testifying. For more details on this hearing see an item above.
•Technology leadership. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Technology Leadership Summit, with the theme “Deploy and Dominate.”
•Western Industrial policy. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “The new age of Western industrial policy: Is there a new playbook?”
•Taiwan views of U.S. Center for Immigration Studies virtual discussion on “Taiwanese Views of the United States and China: Evidence from the 2026 American Portrait Survey.”
•Global security. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on “The Re-Making of International Security: Arms Transfer Trends in a Changing Global Order.”
•Cold weather diesel issues. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on S 3135, the “Cold Weather Diesel Reliability Act of 2025.”
• Immigration issues. Heritage Foundation discussion on “How Weaponized Immigration Compromises America and U.S. Citizenship.”
•Small businesses and pets. Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee hearing on “Main Street’s Top Dog: Growing the Small Business Pet Economy.”
•Global capital markets. Economic Club of Washington, D.C. holds a discussion on “the outlook of global capital markets, and how technology and data are shaping transparency, integrity, and trust across the financial system.”
Thur.,March 12
• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on Basel III and Bank Capital Rules in Washington, DC. Note: Her remarks cannot include comments on current monetary policy or the current economic situation.
•Emerging technologies. American Bar Association 2026 Privacy and Emerging Technology National Institute; runs through Friday.
•Flu vaccines. Food and Drug Administration virtual meeting of the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee to discuss and make recommendations on the strain composition of influenza virus vaccines for use in United States during the 2026-2027 influenza season.
•EU enlargement. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “The geopolitics of EU enlargement,” part of its “What Now, Europe?” series.
• Transatlantic economic opportunities. Atlantic Council; Jagello 2000; the University of Texas at Austin; CSG; American Friends of the Czech Republic; and the George W. Bush Institute hold an event on “Resilience in Security and Economics Dialogue,” focusing on “how to deepen collaboration, strengthen resilience, foster innovation, and expand economic opportunity on both sides of the Atlantic.”
• Report on land values. Farm Credit Administration meeting to discuss a report on land values and for a notice of proposed rulemaking —assessment and appointment of administrative expenses.
•Measles in the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “The Resurgence of Measles in the United States.”
•Lowering utility bills. Environmental and Energy Study Institute briefing on “Strategies to Lower Utility Bills Now for Households and Small Businesses.”
•Non-state actors and war. Institute of World Politics discussion on “Private Military Contractors: Understanding the Non-State Actors Changing the Institution of War.”
Fri., March 13
•Farm Bureau Young Farmers & Ranchers Leadership Conference, Portland, Oregon, through March 16.
•AI and government contracts. Final day of the American Bar Association (ABA) 2025 Federal Procurement Institute with a focus on AI and government contracts.
•Immigration symposium. Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service Washington Area Immigration Symposium.
•AI and U.S./Korea relations. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on “Countering AI Disinformation: Implications for the U.S./ROK Alliance.”
• Nuclear deterrence. National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar on “Toward a New Strategic Approach to US Extended Nuclear Deterrence.”
| —ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
—Key inflation reports due as markets weigh weak jobs data and Iran war risks
Upcoming CPI and PCE data will test the Federal Reserve’s outlook as energy prices surge and policymakers prepare for their March meeting.
A pair of major inflation reports due in the coming week will offer fresh insight into U.S. price pressures following a disappointing February jobs report that raised doubts about the strength of the labor market. The data arrive just as the U.S./Israel war with Iran drives oil prices sharply higher, adding new uncertainty to the inflation outlook and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for Wednesday is expected to show relatively mild price pressures in February. Economists project that core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — rose 0.2% for the month, suggesting inflation may have been easing before the conflict in the Middle East disrupted energy markets.
Later in the week, however, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge could tell a different story. Economists expect the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for January to rise 0.4% for the second consecutive month, leaving the annual rate around 3%, still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
The inflation readings cover periods before the escalation of military operations against Iran, meaning the latest surge in energy prices has yet to be reflected in the official data. Oil prices have jumped sharply as fighting disrupts refining capacity and shipping in the region, while U.S. gasoline prices have posted one of the largest weekly increases since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Higher fuel costs are expected to push overall inflation higher in March.
Despite mixed signals from the upcoming data, Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the March 17–18 meeting. Policymakers have entered their pre-meeting blackout period, preventing them from commenting publicly on economic conditions or monetary policy.
Friday’s data release will also include the government’s income and spending report, which economists expect to show little change in inflation-adjusted consumer spending in January. Analysts will watch disposable income figures for clues about consumers’ purchasing power as the labor market shows signs of slowing.
Additional indicators later in the week will provide further context for the economic outlook. The January job openings report will gauge labor demand, while the University of Michigan’s preliminary March consumer sentiment survey will reveal how households view the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation, gasoline prices, and employment prospects.
Tue., March 10
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | Existing Home Sales | FHFA House Price Index | Wholesale Trade | Richmond Fed Manufacturing | Consumer Confidence | Earnings: Saudi Aramco
Wed., March 11
• CPI | Treasury Budget | Earnings: Uniper Earnings: Ecopetrol
Thur., March 12
• Jobless Claims | International Trade | Housing Starts | Earnings: RWE
Fri., March 13
• GDP | Personal Income & Outlays | Durable Goods Orders | Consumer Sentiment | JOLTS
| —AG REPORTS |
—Agriculture reports to watch in the week ahead
Key USDA data releases — including WASDE, crop production estimates, export activity and commodity outlook reports — will shape market expectations for grains, livestock, and global supply-demand trends
A busy week of USDA reports will provide markets with updated insights on global supply and demand, export activity, livestock economics, and commodity outlooks. The centerpiece will be Tuesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, accompanied by major global trade outlook updates and domestic production data. Additional reports throughout the week will offer fresh information on export flows, commodity prices, livestock production trends, and global grain and oilseed processing.
Mon., March 9
• AMS. Export Inspections
Tue., March 10
• NASS: Crop Production | Cotton Ginnings WAOB: WASDE FAS: Cotton: World Markets and Trade | Grains: World Markets and Trade | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade | World Agricultural Production
Wed., March 11
• ERS: Meat Price Spreads | Season-Average Price Forecasts | Feed Grains Database | Wheat Data NASS: Price Reactions after Crop Reports | Price Reactions after Livestock Reports | Broiler Hatchery
Thur., March 12
• FAS: Export Sales ERS: Cotton and Wool Outlook | Oil Crops Outlook | Feed Outlook | Wheat Outlook NASS: Slaughter Weekly
Fri., March 13
• ERS: Dairy Monthly Tables NASS: Honey | Turkey Hatchery | North American Grain and Oilseed Crushings | Peanut Prices
| —ENERGY REPORTS |
—Energy market outlook: key reports and events to watch this week
Major inventory data, global oil market outlook reports, and industry conferences highlight a pivotal week for energy markets as traders monitor supply disruptions and demand signals
Energy markets face a packed calendar in the week ahead, with several high-impact reports and global industry events likely to influence crude oil, refined products, and natural gas markets. Key releases from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC will provide updated views on supply, demand, and inventories, while industry conferences and trading data offer additional insight into market positioning.
Mon., March 9
• BTC loading programs (April) | Holidays: Russia; Azerbaijan; Kazakhstan
Tue., March 10
• API US inventory report | StocExpo tank storage/future fuels conference/exhibition, Rotterdam; runs through Wednesday | EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
Wed., March 11
• EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
Thur., March 12
• EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | BNEF Summit Beijing | India Climate Week, New Delhi; runs through March 17 | IEA Oil Market Report| ICE Gasoil March futures expire
Fri., March 13
• ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Baker-Hughes Rig Count
