White House Releases Fact Sheet on Trump/Xi Agreements
BlackRock’s HPS hit by alleged telecom loan fraud | Texas presses Washington to reopen border for Mexican cattle | Chinese commitment to buy 5 MMT U.S. soybeans coming? | Courts order Trump administration to keep SNAP benefits flowing during shutdown | White House releases fact sheet on Trump/Xi agreements
Link: Calls Mount to Bring Back USDA’s Daily Export Sales “Flash” When Warranted
Link: USDA to Release Key Data in November, Including Crop Production, WASDE
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31
Weekend Updates:
FINANCE & MARKETS
— BlackRock’s HPS hit by alleged telecom loan fraud
— Bayer closes chapter on Monsanto saga with $38 million investor settlement
— Fed split widens over pace of rate cuts
— Equities Friday and weekly, monthly changes
AGRICULTURE & TRADE
— Texas presses Washington to reopen border for Mexican cattle
— Major expo in China could bring a commitment to buy 5 MMT of U.S. soybeans
— Trump and Xi trade pact revives U.S. farm exports
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices ended higher Friday after Venezuela strike scare
U.S. POLICY & POLITICS
— Courts order Trump administration to keep SNAP benefits flowing during shutdown
— Air travel turmoil deepens as shutdown strains the skies
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
— Bessent tells FT China ‘made a real mistake’ on rare earths
— Trump/Xi pact opens path for Nexperia chip exports to resume
— Carney apologizes to Trump over Ontario tariff ad
— Carney finds unexpected diplomatic opening in Beijing after Trump snub
SCOTUS & TARIFF POLICY
— SCOTUS to weigh broad presidential tariff powers; oral arguments Nov. 5
PRESIDENTIAL & MEDIA
— Trump to appear on CBS 60 Minutes this weekend
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Rain to persist over the Pacific Northwest; storms in the Southeast; warmth building in the West
Weekend Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 1, 2025
UP FRONT Private credit jolt: BlackRock’s newly acquired HPS Investment Partners wrote down $150 million after uncovering falsified collateral in loans to India’s Bankai Group. The “brazen” fraud, now in court, underscores rising scrutiny in the $1.7 trillion private-credit sector. Texas cattle push: State officials are pressing Washington to reopen the border for Mexican cattle after a yearlong screwworm-related suspension. Commissioner Sid Miller warns record beef prices and herd shortages risk reshaping North American meat trade if the closure persists. Soybean purchase signals: Reports ahead of next week’s China International Import Expo (Nov. 5–10) suggest COFCO may sign a 5 MMT U.S. soybean purchase commitment — an early test of the Trump/Xi trade truce. Shutdown showdown: Two federal judges ordered the Trump administration to continue paying SNAP benefits to 42 million Americans, blocking the suspension of food aid amid the ongoing government shutdown. Air chaos deepens: Staffing shortages and unpaid controllers have crippled U.S. air traffic operations, with thousands of delays and a minor plane collision at LaGuardia highlighting safety concerns. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy urged Congress to act before the holiday rush. Bayer settlement finalized: A federal judge approved Bayer’s $38 million investor settlement over its Monsanto acquisition, resolving long-running claims of inadequate vetting of Roundup-related risks. Bessent’s warning: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Financial Times that China “made a real mistake” threatening rare-earth export curbs — saying the U.S. will secure alternative supplies within two years. Trump hinted fentanyl-related tariff relief hinges on Beijing’s enforcement actions. Trade reset: The Trump/Xi pact lifted tensions, with Beijing pledging 12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases through January and 25 MMT annually thereafter. China will resume imports of sorghum, lumber, and meats as the U.S. cuts average tariffs from 57% to 47%. Tech relief: The U.S. approved Nexperia chip exports from China, averting potential auto production halts. The move is part of the broader U.S./China framework to stabilize trade flows. The White House released a fact sheet, including the ag trade provisions. Fed divide widens: Multiple Fed officials voiced unease with this week’s rate cut to 3.75–4%, signaling divisions over whether another reduction in December is warranted. Equity market moves: The Dow added 0.75% on the week, the S&P 0.71%, and the Nasdaq 2.21%. Corn and soybeans climbed sharply, while cattle futures slid. Oil steadied after Venezuela strike rumors faded. Carney’s balancing act: Canadian PM Mark Carney apologized to Trump over an Ontario anti-tariff ad that froze bilateral trade talks, even as he secured an unexpected meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing — signaling a tentative thaw in Canada–China ties. Tariff case at SCOTUS: The Supreme Court hears arguments Nov. 5 on Trump’s sweeping 2025 tariffs, testing the limits of presidential authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — a ruling with major implications for U.S. trade policy. Weather watch: Persistent rain for the Pacific Northwest; showers and storms stretch across the Southeast; near-record warmth builds across the western U.S. — BlackRock’s HPS hit by alleged telecom loan fraudFake collateral triggers $150 million writedown, deepening scrutiny of private credit risks BlackRock’s newly acquired private credit arm, HPS Investment Partners, has been rocked by revelations that one of its loans — tied to an Indian telecom group — was built on falsified collateral, prompting a $150 million writedown and raising alarm over the integrity of asset-backed lending. According to Bloomberg, HPS partnered with BNP Paribas SA to extend hundreds of millions of dollars to companies controlled by businessman Bankim Brahmbhatt, founder of India’s Bankai Group. The financing was supposedly secured by receivables from major telecom operators. But in July, HPS staff discovered that the supposed collateral largely consisted of emails from fake domains and forged signatures, triggering lawsuits and defaults. Two core borrowers — Broadband Telecom and Bridgevoice — have since filed for bankruptcy. HPS has written off its entire exposure, and both BlackRock and BNP Paribas have declined comment. The episode comes just weeks after BlackRock finalized its $12 billion takeover of HPS, and adds to market unease following failures at Tricolor Holdings and First Brands, which also rattled private-credit investors. JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon has warned that such cases may signal deeper issues in opaque corners of credit markets, while Blue Owl Capital’s Marc Lipschultz countered that defaults remain limited to bank-led deals. Court filings in New York and Delaware describe what lenders call a “breathtaking” and “extraordinarily brazen” fraud involving dozens of fake communications and offshore accounts in Mauritius and India. HPS, as investment manager for several affected funds, is seeking to recover funds in the ongoing litigation. The losses affect HPS’s Asset Value strategy, which manages more than $3 billion and typically targets 9–11% returns. The latest fund vintage is now expected to perform at the low end of that range. BNP Paribas separately disclosed a €190 million ($219 million) hit tied to a “specific credit situation,” with CFO Lars Machenil telling Bloomberg TV that it was a one-off event “in the sphere of payment.” The case underscores growing fraud-risk concerns in the fast-expanding $1.7 trillion private-credit industry, as investors demand tighter verification standards for asset-based lending. Bottom Line: Bond markets have been edgy on short-term credit spreads. — Texas presses Washington to reopen border for Mexican cattleState officials warn of record meat prices and shrinking U.S. herd as screwworm restrictions linger Texas is intensifying pressure on Washington to reopen the border to Mexican cattle, citing record beef prices and the sharpest contraction in the U.S. herd in decades. The trade, suspended since May 2024 after a New World screwworm outbreak in Mexico, has cut off a key supply channel for Texas ranchers and U.S. feedlots. Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller told EFE, a state-owned international news agency headquartered in Madrid, with bureaus across Latin America, the U.S., and Europe, that reopening the border “can be done now, without health risks,” arguing that USDA quarantines and inspections are sufficient to prevent contagion. The push comes as drought, high feed costs, and herd liquidation have driven consumer prices to all-time highs — ground beef averaging $6.12 per pound, steaks $11.49, according to the Texas Farm Bureau. For decades, Mexico supplied more than one million head of cattle annually, mainly feeder calves bound for Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Mexican Agriculture Secretary Julio Berdegué said he met virtually with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to advance a reopening plan, though no date has been set. Binational teams are developing new sterile-fly plants in Mexico to accelerate screwworm eradication, potentially releasing 20 million sterile flies per week. Miller warned that without swift action, Mexico could expand its own beef processing and export to third markets, permanently altering regional trade flows. He also sent proposals to President Donald Trump and White House adviser Stephen Miller seeking incentives for domestic cattle production, including grazing permits, temporary land-use authorizations, and tax relief for ranchers. Criticizing federal plans to boost Argentine beef imports, Miller said that approach would have little impact on prices and questioned the meat’s quality. “Maybe it will lower the price of hamburgers, but that beef is low quality,” he remarked. “If the price of meat continues to rise, consumers will migrate to cheaper cuts or to other proteins such as chicken or pork,” Miller warned. While USDA maintains the closure, citing incomplete eradication along the border, officials acknowledge “substantial progress” toward containment — leaving open the possibility of a phased reopening in the coming months. — Major expo next week in China could bring a commitment to buy 5 MMT of U.S. soybeans The China International Import Expo (CIIE) 2025 is scheduled to take place in Shanghai from Nov. 5 to 10. Some reports have surfaced, but not yet verified, that COFCO is set to sign a 5 MMT purchase commitment for U.S. soybeans at the expo. — Courts order Trump administration to keep SNAP benefits flowing during shutdownFederal judges block suspension of food aid for 42 million Americans as legal battle unfolds Two federal judges on Friday blocked the Trump administration’s plan to suspend Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments amid the ongoing government shutdown, ruling that halting benefits would be unlawful. U.S. District Court Judge Jack McConnell of Rhode Island ordered the administration to use the $6 billion contingency fund “timely or as soon as possible” to deliver at least partial November payments. The decision followed a similar ruling by Judge Indira Talwani of the Massachusetts District Court, who earlier found that suspending SNAP “violates federal law” and directed officials to outline how benefits would continue. The rulings came just hours before 42 million Americans were set to lose food assistance. While the court orders compel the government to issue some funds, the timing and full amount of November benefits remain uncertain. Justice Department lawyers argued that shutdown-related funding lapses left no appropriated money for SNAP, but both judges rejected that reasoning, saying the contingency reserve must be used to maintain payments. Despite McConnell’s order, Trump posted on Truth Social, “Our Government lawyers do not think we have the legal authority to pay SNAP with certain monies we have available, and now two Courts have issued conflicting opinions on what we can and cannot do. … Therefore, I have instructed our lawyers to ask the Court to clarify how we can legally fund SNAP as soon as possible.” — Air travel turmoil deepens as shutdown strains the skiesLaGuardia collision highlights growing safety and staffing concerns as unpaid air traffic controllers walk off the job The nation’s air travel system is nearing a breaking point as the federal government shutdown drags into its second month, leaving thousands of air traffic controllers unpaid and airports across the country understaffed. Roughly half of the United States’ top airports — at least 35 major facilities — were short on controllers this week, according to Reuters. Nowhere was the strain more evident than in the New York City area, where as many as four-fifths of controllers were out, contributing to cascading delays and cancellations nationwide. Union leaders for the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) say fatigue, financial stress, and morale collapse have created an unsustainable situation. “Controllers are doing their jobs under enormous pressure and without pay,” NATCA President Rich Santa said, adding that the union is urging Democrats to pass a “clean” continuing resolution to reopen the government and restore stability. A collision on the tarmac underscores safety fears. Tensions turned tangible on Friday morning at New York’s LaGuardia Airport when two United Airlines planes made contact on a taxiway. One aircraft arriving from Orlando clipped the tail of another preparing for departure to Houston, according to reports from the New York Post. Both jets returned to the gate, and no injuries were reported among the more than 300 passengers and crew. The mishap, which came amid severe weather and two-hour average delays, has fueled concern that the nation’s overworked and understaffed control system is increasingly vulnerable to error. FAA officials have not linked the incident directly to staffing shortages but have acknowledged a “national strain” on tower and radar operations. Ground stops and cascading delays. The FAA has implemented ground delay programs at key hubs — including Dallas/Fort Worth, Orlando, and Washington National — to manage limited capacity. Delays have topped 8,000 flights on some days, according to flight-tracking data, while cancellations number in the hundreds. Airlines have started reallocating crews and flight schedules as the situation worsens. Industry executives warned the White House this week that a prolonged shutdown could lead to “a full-scale aviation crisis,” forcing reductions in service and significant economic costs. Meanwhile, some controllers are reportedly taking second jobs — driving for rideshare companies and delivering food — to make ends meet as paychecks remain frozen. “You can’t run a safety-critical system on goodwill forever,” one veteran controller told Reuters. Political and economic fallout. The shutdown’s ripple effects extend beyond the tarmac. Economists estimate that flight disruptions and lost productivity could drain billions from the U.S. economy if the impasse continues into the holiday season. Treasury officials have privately warned of “collateral economic risk” as the travel and logistics sectors absorb the blow. Airline CEOs, joined by Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, have appealed for an end to the standoff, citing safety and economic imperatives. What’s Next: Unless Congress reaches a funding deal soon, industry leaders fear the combination of depleted staffing, mounting fatigue, and holiday travel volume could push the system to its limits. FAA officials have begun contingency planning for “rolling slowdowns” at major airports to preserve safety. — Trump is going back on CBS. The president will be on 60 Minutes this weekend, having conducted an interview with Norah O’Donnell yesterday, the network announced. He hasn’t given an interview to the network in five years; this follows his settlement with parent company Paramount, which paid $16 million in a much-criticized decision. — Bayer closes chapter on Monsanto saga with $38 million investor settlementJudge Seeborg endorses 9% recovery for investors alleging inadequate vetting of Monsanto purchase A federal judge has granted final approval to Bayer AG’s $38 million settlement resolving U.S. investor claims tied to its $63 billion acquisition of Monsanto Co., the maker of Roundup herbicide. The deal, approved by Chief Judge Richard Seeborg of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, represents a 9% recovery of maximum potential damages and brings an end to a five-year legal battle. The lawsuit, filed by pension funds representing investors who purchased Bayer’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) between 2016 and 2020, alleged the company failed to properly vet Monsanto’s legal risks and did not disclose the scope of cancer-related litigation tied to Roundup. Judge Seeborg also approved roughly $9.4 million in attorneys’ fees — 27% of the settlement — and nearly $3.3 million in expenses for the investors’ legal team led by Cohen Milstein Sellers & Toll PLLC. “This was an important securities class action that reaffirms ADR investor rights and the long arm of Uncle Sam to hold foreign companies accountable to U.S. securities laws,” said attorney Carol Gilden of Cohen Milstein, emphasizing that investors who purchased foreign company ADRs on U.S. exchanges can still pursue claims under domestic law. Bayer, represented by Morrison & Foerster LLP and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, said the settlement does not constitute an admission of wrongdoing but allows the company “to put this matter behind us.” The case, Sheet Metal Workers National Pension Fund v. Bayer AG (No. 3:20-cv-04737), marks another chapter in Bayer’s efforts to resolve U.S. litigation stemming from its 2018 Monsanto acquisition and the ongoing fallout from Roundup-related cancer claims. — Bessent tells FT China ‘made a real mistake’ on rare earthsTreasury chief says U.S. will find new supplies within two years as Trump links tariff relief to fentanyl crackdown In an interview with the Financial Times, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China “has made a real mistake” by threatening to restrict exports of rare-earth minerals — an action he believes will accelerate Washington’s push to secure alternative supply chains within the next 12-24 months. He warned that Beijing’s attempt to weaponize its dominance in rare-earth processing and magnets “will not last” as the U.S. and its allies mobilize. Meanwhile, President Trump stated that his administration would lift (tariffs on China tied to the flow of chemical ingredients used to manufacture the synthetic opioid fentanyl — but only if China cracks down on exports of those precursor chemicals. — Trump/Xi pact opens path for Nexperia chip exports to resumeMove expected to avert auto production halts as U.S. and China ease tech trade standoff under new agreement The U.S. announces that Dutch chipmaker Nexperia BV will be allowed to resume shipments from its facilities in China The decision follows the trade pact reached this week between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, marking a step toward easing tensions that have rattled global supply chains. The announcement — in a fact sheet detailing the Trump/Xi agreement (see box below) — comes after Beijing earlier this month blocked Nexperia’s exports in retaliation for the Dutch government’s move to seize control of the Chinese-owned firm. The export freeze had threatened to disrupt production for major automakers such as Volkswagen AG and BMW AG, and U.S. suppliers had warned that car manufacturing could grind to a halt within weeks. The framework to restart chip shipments is part of the administration’s broader summary of the U.S./China trade truce, under which Beijing agreed to delay restrictions on rare earth magnets and resume purchases of U.S. soybeans and other farm goods. In exchange, Washington pledged to halve tariffs linked to fentanyl-related goods and suspend the planned 100% levy on Chinese imports that had been set to begin in November. Upshot: The Nexperia decision signals a rare moment of cooperation in a tech-trade confrontation that has strained global markets and underscored the fragile balance between economic security and industrial interdependence. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with ChinaThe White HouseNovember 1, 2025REBALANCING TRADE WITH CHINA: This week in the Republic of Korea, President Donald J. Trump reached a trade and economic deal with President Xi Jinping of China—a massive victory that safeguards U.S. economic strength and national security while putting American workers, farmers, and families first. This historic agreement includes Chinese commitments to:o Halt the flow of precursors used to make fentanyl into the United States.o Effectively eliminate China’s current and proposed export controls on rare earth elements and other critical minerals.o End Chinese retaliation against U.S. semiconductor manufacturers and other major U.S. companies.o Open China’s market to U.S. soybeans and other agricultural exports. CHINESE ACTIONS: China will suspend the global implementation of the expansive new export controls on rare earths and related measures that it announced on October 9, 2025. China will issue general licenses valid for exports of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite for the benefit of U.S. end users and their suppliers around the world. The general license means the de facto removal of controls China imposed in April 2025 and October 2022. China will take significant measures to end the flow of fentanyl to the United States. Specifically, China will stop the shipment of certain designated chemicals to North America and strictly control exports of certain other chemicals to all destinations in the world. China will suspend all of the retaliatory tariffs that it has announced since March 4, 2025. This includes tariffs on a vast swath of U.S. agricultural products: chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. China will suspend or remove all of the retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since March 4, 2025, including China’s listing of certain American companies on its end user and unreliable entity lists. China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and also purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood logs. China will take appropriate measures to ensure the resumption of trade from Nexperia’s facilities in China, allowing production of critical legacy chips to flow to the rest of the world. China will remove measures it took in retaliation for the U.S.’s announcement of a Section 301 investigation on China’s Targeting the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance, and remove sanctions imposed on various shipping entities. China will further extend the expiration of its market-based tariff exclusion process for imports from the United States and exclusions will remain valid until December 31, 2026. China will terminate its various investigations targeting U.S. companies in the semiconductor supply chain, including its antitrust, anti-monopoly, and anti-dumping investigations.AMERICAN ACTIONS: The United States will lower the tariffs on Chinese imports imposed to curb fentanyl flows by removing 10 percentage points of the cumulative rate, effective November 10, 2025, and will maintain its suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until November 10, 2026. (The current 10% reciprocal tariff will remain in effect during this suspension period.) The United States will further extend the expiration of certain Section 301 tariff exclusions, currently due to expire on November 29, 2025, until November 10, 2026. The United States will suspend for one year, starting on November 10, 2025, the implementation of the interim final rule titled Expansion of End-User Controls to Cover Affiliates of Certain Listed Entities. The United States will suspend for one year, starting on November 10, 2025, implementation of the responsive actions taken pursuant to the Section 301 investigation on China’s Targeting the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance. In the meantime, the United States will negotiate with China pursuant to Section 301 while continuing its historic cooperation with the Republic of Korea and Japan on revitalizing American shipbuilding.SECURING ANOTHER WIN FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE: This trade and economic deal caps President Trump’s successful trip to Asia, where he delivered a series of historic wins for the American people. In Malaysia, President Trump signed Agreements on Reciprocal Trade with Malaysia and Cambodia, and the United States announced joint frameworks for trade negotiations with Thailand and Vietnam. He also signed critical minerals cooperation agreements with Thailand and Malaysia. In Japan, President Trump announced major projects advancing Japan’s previous $550 billion investment commitment to the United States to further revitalize the U.S. industrial base, signed a landmark critical minerals agreement with Japan, secured historic purchases of U.S. energy from Japan, and deepened U.S.-Japan cooperation to combat illegal drug trafficking. In the Republic of Korea, the President secured billions in landmark commitments, including investments to support American jobs, further America’s energy dominance, promote American leadership in the technology revolution, and build the U.S./Korea maritime partnership. — Trump and Xi trade pact revives U.S. farm exportsChina commits to major soybean, sorghum, and lumber purchases amid tariff rollback The late October Trump/Xi trade agreement marked a pivotal reset in U.S./China economic relations. Under the one-year truce, China pledged to purchase 12 million metric tons of American soybeans to January, and agreeing to purchase 25 million tons of soybeans annually over the next three years. Beijing also agreed to resume imports of U.S. sorghum, lumber, wheat, pork, dairy, and chicken, while suspending retaliatory tariffs on those goods. In return, the U.S. reduced its average tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, including halving the fentanyl-related levy to 10%. The deal also paused planned export restrictions on Chinese rare earth minerals and suspended new port fees on shipping between the two nations. Officials from both sides described the agreement as a “stabilization framework” meant to reopen commodity and industrial trade flows while longer-term negotiations continue through newly established working groups. U.S./China One-Year Trade Truce and Rare-Earth Deal: ChecklistU.S. ConcessionsChina’s CommitmentsMutual TermsCut average tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% from 57%.Suspend planned export restrictions on rare earth minerals for one year.One-year truce expiring in late 2026 unless extended.Halve fentanyl-related tariff to 10%.Purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans to January; continue 25 million tons annually for three years.Average tariffs post-deal: 47% on Chinese imports, 32% on U.S. exports.Delay for one year new restrictions on Chinese firms tied to U.S.-sanctioned entities.Continue purchases of U.S. oil and natural gas.Pause reciprocal port fees to ease supply chain pressure.Suspend planned measures targeting China’s maritime and shipbuilding sectors.Work to curb illicit fentanyl flows into the U.S.Applies across agriculture, energy, shipbuilding, and technology trade sectors. Context• Meeting site: APEC Summit, South Korea — first Trump/Xi meeting since 2019. • Meeting length: 90 minutes. • Trump called the talks “amazing… a 12 out of 10.” • Objective: Ease trade and geopolitical tensions while maintaining leverage for future negotiations. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— Equities Friday and weekly, monthly changes:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Oct. 31 | Point Difference from Oct. 30 | % Difference from Oct. | % Weekly Change | % Monthly Change |
| Dow | 47,562.87 | +40.75 | +0.09% | +0.75% | +2.5% |
| Nasdaq | 23,724.96 | +143.81 | +0.61% | +2.21% | +4.7% |
| S&P 500 | 6,840.20 | +17.86 | +0.26% | +0.71% | +2.3% |
— Fed split widens over pace of rate cuts
Officials warn inflation risks persist as Powell signals December move is uncertain
Four Federal Reserve officials on Friday expressed varying levels of discomfort with this week’s rate cut and the prospect of another reduction in December — highlighting growing divisions inside the central bank over how quickly to ease policy.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, the lone dissenter in Wednesday’s decision to lower the federal funds rate target to 3.75%–4%, said he opposed the move because of “persistent inflation.”
Two nonvoting officials, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, also suggested they would have voted against the cut. Hammack warned that the move may have gone “a step too far” and stressed the need to “maintain some amount of restriction to help bring inflation back down to target.”
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, another nonvoter, said he could accept the quarter-point cut only because he still views policy as leaning against inflation. But he added, “With each step, we get closer and closer to neutral in ways that make me uncomfortable.”
Upshot: The remarks underscore the tension within the Fed as it balances slowing growth against stubborn inflation pressures ahead of its December meeting.
| AG MARKETS |
— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Oct. 31 | Change from Oct. 30 | Change for the Week |
| Corn | Dec | 4.31 1/2 | +1 1/4 | +8 1/4 |
| Soybeans | Jan | 11.15 1/4 | +7 1/2 | +55 |
| Soybean Meal | Dec | 321.60 | +6.00 | +23.40 |
| Soybean Oil | Dec | 48.68 | -97 pts | -159 pts |
| SRW Wheat | Dec | 5.34 | +9 3/4 | +21 1/2 |
| HRW Wheat | Dec | 5.24 1/2 | +11 1/2 | +23 |
| Spring Wheat | Dec | 5.53 | +2 1/2 | -7 |
| Cotton | Dec | 65.54 | +42 pts | +134 pts |
| Live Cattle | Dec | 229.675 | -1.425 | -4.25 |
| Feeder Cattle | Jan | 331.90 | -2.325 | -2.35 |
| Lean Hogs | Dec | 81.275 | +0.45 | -0.625 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Oil prices ended higher Friday after Venezuela strike scare
Brief rally fades as Trump denies imminent military action; focus shifts to OPEC+ meeting and soft demand outlook
Oil prices closed modestly higher Friday after a volatile trading session sparked by reports of potential U.S. air strikes on Venezuela. Brent crude settled at $65.07 per barrel, up $0.07 (0.11%), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $0.41 (0.68%) to $60.98.
Prices spiked briefly after reports suggested U.S. military operations could begin within hours, following a buildup of naval forces in the Caribbean, including the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford. The rally quickly faded when President Trump denied plans for any immediate action, saying there were “no plans for action at this time.”
A stronger U.S. dollar, near three-month highs, added mild downward pressure on commodities, while concerns over weakening demand persisted. Saudi Arabia is preparing to cut December crude prices for Asian buyers to multi-month lows, reflecting slowing demand. China’s manufacturing PMI contracted for a seventh straight month, deepening bearish sentiment.
Both benchmarks posted October losses of roughly 2–3% amid rising OPEC and non-OPEC production, with additional Middle East supply offsetting Russia’s export disruptions under U.S. sanctions. Russian producer Lukoil confirmed plans to sell international assets, marking the first major divestment by a Russian oil major since 2022.
Looking ahead, OPEC+ ministers meet Sunday, with expectations for a modest 137,000 bpd output increase. Analysts noted that Saudi Arabia remains the only member with significant spare capacity to drive meaningful supply growth. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported record output at 13.6 million bpd.
Separately, President Trump said China agreed in principle to resume U.S. energy purchases, including a “large-scale” deal for Alaskan oil and gas, though analysts remain skeptical about near-term demand gains.
| TRADE POLICY |
— Carney apologizes to Trump over Ontario tariff ad
Canadian prime minister says ad ‘not something I would have done’ after it halts trade talks
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Saturday that he has personally apologized to President Donald Trump after a provincial ad campaign from Ontario angered the White House and temporarily derailed U.S./Canada trade negotiations. “The president was offended by the ad,” Carney said during a press conference before leaving an international trade meeting in Asia. “It’s not something I would have done — which is to put in place that advertisement — and so I apologized to him.”
The disputed ad, aired by the province of Ontario, featured clips from a 1987 Ronald Reagan radio address warning about the dangers of tariffs. The Reagan Presidential Library criticized the spot as misleading, noting that it had reordered Reagan’s comments. President Trump reportedly viewed the ad as a slight, prompting him to suspend bilateral trade talks.
Carney added that he told Ontario Premier Doug Ford he opposed the ad campaign and that “you saw what came of it.” He emphasized that maintaining U.S. relations is a federal responsibility, saying, “I’m the one who is responsible, in my role as prime minister, for the relationship with the president of the U.S.”
Meanwhile, Trump said Friday that trade negotiations with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government remain suspended, despite what he described as a “very nice” apology from the Canadian leader for an anti-tariff advertisement aired by Ontario. “I like him a lot,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, “but you know, what they did was wrong. He was very nice. He apologized for what they did with the commercial.”
The Canadian dollar weakened to C$1.4018 per U.S. dollar, its lowest level in a week, following Trump’s remarks. Newly released data from Statistics Canada showed the trade conflict’s economic toll, with growth slowing to just 0.4% annualized in the third quarter.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in Toronto that Washington still hopes to resume talks with Ottawa “to see cooperation between the United States and Canada across critical minerals, across oil and gas.” He acknowledged “some good reasons” for friction after the White House halted negotiations last week over Ontario’s anti-tariff ad — which had invoked a 1987 Ronald Reagan address — and Trump’s subsequent threat of an additional 10% tariff on Canadian imports.
Before talks collapsed, Carney and U.S. officials had reportedly made progress on steel and aluminum tariffs and energy-sector issues, including Carney’s proposal to revive the Keystone XL pipeline project. Trump, however, has signaled contentment with the current trade framework, which retains U.S. import taxes on autos, lumber, steel, and aluminum, and a 35% tariff on other goods outside the USMCA pact.
— Carney finds unexpected diplomatic opening in Beijing after Trump snub
Canada’s prime minister meets Xi Jinping as Ottawa’s ties with Washington sour
Canada plays the China card. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, sidelined by President Donald Trump after trade talks collapsed, ended his weeklong Asian trip with an unplanned but symbolically important meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping, according to the New York Times. The encounter marked the first formal talks between the top leaders of China and Canada in eight years, signaling a tentative thaw in relations that had grown icy since the 2018 Huawei dispute.
A trip recast by Trump’s snub. Carney had originally planned to meet President Trump before his Asia tour, but that session was abruptly canceled after Trump suspended trade talks with Canada and threatened a 10% tariff increase. The U.S. president cited an Ontario-funded television ad using a 1987 Ronald Reagan speech criticizing tariffs as the reason for the diplomatic break.
With Canada’s ties to its largest trading partner at a low point, Carney refocused his mission toward expanding trade with Asia — visiting Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea to pursue new export opportunities. His meeting with Xi, though devoid of major announcements, concluded with an invitation to future talks in Beijing, which Carney accepted, the Times reported.
A shift in Canada’s trade strategy. The meeting underscored Ottawa’s growing urgency to diversify exports beyond the United States. Carney’s agenda included military and industrial stops, such as a South Korean shipyard tour tied to his plan to expand Canada’s naval capabilities.
Throughout the trip, Carney maintained his trademark polished demeanor — appearing in full dark suits even in the heat of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore — in contrast to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s more casual style. The Times noted that Carney broke formality only once, quipping about Ontario Premier Doug Ford, whose controversial ad sparked Trump’s anger: “Did I say ‘good friend’ Premier Ford? I meant the always-interesting, unpredictable Premier Ford,” he joked to business leaders in Kuala Lumpur.
A tentative thaw, but obstacles ahead. While the Carney/Xi meeting may signal an opening, the NYT cautioned that deep-seated mistrust remains between Ottawa and Beijing. Trade restrictions, human-rights tensions, and Canadian skepticism toward Chinese investment continue to pose barriers to normalization. Still, in a week defined by Trump’s rebuff, even a cordial handshake with Xi offered Carney a small but visible diplomatic victory.
| SCOTUS AND TRUMP TARIFF POLICY |
— SCOTUS to weigh broad presidential tariff powers; oral arguments Nov. 5
Amid high stakes, analysts diverge on outcome and timing of ruling
On Wednesday, Nov. 5, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) will hear oral arguments in the consolidated cases Learning Resources, Inc. v. Donald J. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc., presenting a landmark challenge to President Donald J. Trump’s sweeping 2025 tariff program. The key legal question: can the president, under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), declare an emergency and impose tariffs broadly — and, if so, has that statute delegated legislative tariff-setting power in an unconstitutional way?
Background: emergence of the case
A. The tariff program and legal challenge
In early 2025, the Trump administration declared a national trade-emergency and imposed a 10% tariff on nearly all imports and additional levies on various countries, using IEEPA as the statutory basis. Importers and a coalition of states sued, arguing that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, and even if it did, it unconstitutionally delegates Congress’s enumerated tariff-authority to the executive.
Lower courts have been divided. For example, a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (11-judge en banc) held 7-4 that IEEPA does not support the tariff power claimed. That split encouraged the Supreme Court to act quickly: the Court granted review on Sept. 9, 2025, and scheduled argument for Nov. 5.
B. Doctrinal stakes: non-delegation & major questions
At the heart of the dispute are two major constitutional doctrines: the non-delegation doctrine and the major questions doctrine. The government contends that Congress has historically delegated broad authority to the president in foreign affairs and economic emergencies, including under IEEPA.
The challengers counter that IEEPA never mentions “tariffs” or “duties,” and thus Congress did not clearly delegate the power to impose broad tariffs — bringing the major questions doctrine into play.
In short: if the Court finds IEEPA insufficient or the delegation too broad, it could strike the entire tariff regime down — or require Congress to reauthorize.
What to expect at the oral argument. The argument session is scheduled for 80 minutes (though likely more), during which justices will explore:
• Whether “to regulate importation or exportation” in IEEPA includes the power to tax or tariff imports.
• Whether prior administrations have used IEEPA in this way (notably, they haven’t).
• How the major questions and non-delegation doctrines should be applied. Will the Court treat this as a run of the mill emergency power case, or an extraordinary exercise of legislative authority?
• The consequences of a ruling one way or the other — both legally and economically. For instance, one observer noted a ruling against the tariffs would not produce a “1929-style” collapse of the economy; the government’s assertions of catastrophic fallout are disputed.
Analyst divisions: What could the court rule — and when? Legal and trade analysts diverge on both what the Court will decide and when it will issue that decision.
Possible outcomes
• Full government win: The Court upholds the tariffs, finds IEEPA authorizes them, and rejects the major questions/non-delegation challenge. This would affirm broad presidential tariff power under IEEPA.
• Full government loss: The Court rules that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, and/or that the delegation is unconstitutional — striking down the tariff regime (or remanding it).
• Middle path: The Court might uphold some aspects, limit others, send the cases back to lower courts or require tighter congressional authorization. Some briefs suggest this is plausible.
When will the decision come? Some analysts expect a rapid ruling: because of the high stakes and the ongoing economic implications (including many trade agreements), the Court could issue its decision quickly — possibly within weeks of the hearing. Others caution that even a quick hearing doesn’t mean an immediate decision: the case involves complex constitutional issues and large economic implications, so a decision could drift into Spring 2026. Given that the Court expedited the case (one of the first in the term), many expect this one to land sooner than later.
Why this matters
• Executive/legislative balance: A win for the challengers would reaffirm that Congress must clearly delegate sweeping powers over tariffs, constraining future presidents’ ability to act unilaterally.
• Trade & economy: If the tariffs are struck down, companies that paid duties may seek refunds — running into tens of billions of dollars — while the administration may need a new legal basis for tariffs.
• Global diplomacy: A ruling for the government would bolster the president’s leverage in trade-negotiations; a loss would constrain it.
• Legal precedent: The decision will signal how the Court handles the major questions and non-delegation doctrines in the sphere of economic/foreign policy — an area increasingly under judicial review.
Outlook & what to watch
• After the hearing on Nov. 5, watch for questions from the justices, especially regarding the scope of “importation,” historical practice under IEEPA, and whether Congress explicitly authorized tariffs.
• Check for dissents or signals in the transcript or audio that may hint at the likely direction and margin of decision (e.g., 6-3, 5-4, or even unanimous).
• Monitor for decision-date announcements: the Court often signals the week when ruling will come.
• On the business front, companies affected by the tariffs will be analyzing refund exposure, continued tariff risk, and whether a government win prompts a resurgence of the tariff regime.
• On policy, lawmakers in Congress may begin crafting legislation to clarify or limit presidential tariff authority, especially if the Court’s ruling leaves ambiguity.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Rain to persist over the Pacific Northwest for the weekend… …A cold front brings rain/thunderstorm chances across the southeastern third of the country… …Above average/near record warmth will build in across the West this weekend as ridging builds.
