Will Trump Say Anything in Iowa Today Re: Year-Round E15?

Trump’s immigration stance shifts after Minnesota crisis

LINKS

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 23
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 23
 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 27, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— Clean Fuels Alliance presses Trump on biofuel rules as Clive, Iowa visit spotlights farm-state stakes: Clean Fuels urges the Trump administration to finalize 2026–27 RFS volumes and issue Section 45Z guidance, warning delays are freezing investment in biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF as President Donald Trump headlines an affordability-focused stop in Clive with Iowa GOP leaders and protests expected.

— Corn demand and E15: What’s the impact? NCGA economist Krista Swanson disputes claims that E15 adds $1 to corn prices, saying $0.30–$0.40 per bushel is more realistic under standard modeling assumptions.

— Trump’s immigration stance shifts after Minnesota crisis: Trump signals de-escalation after deadly federal operations in Minnesota, dispatching Tom Homan, opening talks with state and local leaders, and suggesting fewer agents and a state-led investigation.

— Partial government shutdown odds rise as DHS funding standoff hardens: Democrats push to split DHS from the FY2026 minibus as the Jan. 30 CR deadline nears, while Republicans force votes on the full package, raising shutdown risks.

— Trump escalates trade pressure on Seoul with new tariff threat: Trump threatens to raise tariffs on South Korean goods to 25%, adding uncertainty despite a pattern of tariff warnings not always being enforced.

— EU lawmakers stall on U.S. trade deal as Greenland tariff threats disrupt timeline: European Parliament delays action on EU/U.S. trade implementing legislation, pushing key decisions into late February or March.

— French pesticide ban seen as blow to U.S. farm exports: France’s zero-tolerance pesticide residue rule could raise costs for U.S. exporters and inflame EU/U.S. trade tensions.

— Carney downplays Trump’s 100% tariff threat as USMCA posturing: Canada’s prime minister frames Trump’s tariff warning as negotiation tactics ahead of USMCA review, not an imminent action.

— Bessent says Ottawa softened tone after Davos dust-up: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Canadian officials walked back Davos remarks in talks with Trump as tariff threats resurface.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global stocks rise ahead of major U.S. earnings, with investors watching Boeing, GM, UnitedHealth, the Fed meeting, and signs of resilient business investment.

— Bank of Canada outlook: Markets expect rates to hold at 2.25% as trade uncertainty clouds the policy path.

— Rieder emerges as Trump’s “Goldilocks” Fed pick: BlackRock executive Rick Rieder leads prediction markets to succeed Jerome Powell, aligned with Trump’s lower-rate, affordability-focused message.

— UPS lifts 2026 outlook as it pulls back from low-margin Amazon business: UPS forecasts higher revenue and margins by prioritizing higher-paying shipments over Amazon volume.

AG MARKETS

— USDA daily export sales for 2025/26: 

• 110,000 MT corn to unknown destinations 

• 306,000 MT sorghum to unknown destinations

— Record milk production masks growing dairy herd strain: Farm Bureau warns aging herds and fewer replacement heifers are propping up milk output in an unsustainable way.

— EU moves to curb duty-free sugar imports to support producers: The European Commission proposes suspending duty-free sugar imports to relieve pressure on beet growers amid a price slump.

— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grains and cotton fell, livestock rose, reflecting mixed commodity performance.

FARM POLICY

— 2026 farm program payment limits: no single cap, multiple buckets: USDA payment limits vary by program, allowing stacking but hinging on AGI tests and farm structure. Details on the topic from Paul Neiffer. 

— CRP delivers environmental gains without undermining rural economies, new analysis finds: A national study shows CRP boosts property values and rural jobs without causing long-term depopulation.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Tuesday: Winter storm disruptions offset by Kazakhstan supply keep oil prices steady: U.S. storm-related outages tighten supply, but recovering Kazakh output caps gains.

— Monday: Oil prices ease after storm-driven rally as supply fears fade: Brief U.S. production losses and easing export constraints temper prices, with geopolitics still supporting a floor.

— U.S. natural gas prices surge to highest in three years after devastating winter storm: Extreme cold drives wholesale gas prices sharply higher, foreshadowing higher consumer bills.

TRADE POLICY

— EU and India near long-awaited trade agreement: Brussels and New Delhi move closer to a broad tariff-cutting pact with strategic implications beyond economics.

— The case for breaking the rules of global trade: A Foreign Affairs analysis argues Trump-style trade pragmatism revives a traditional U.S. approach favoring flexibility over rigid global rules.

CONGRESS

— Senate Ag panel preps crypto markup as amendments aim to curb political influence: Senators advance crypto market legislation expanding CFTC authority while adding guardrails on political involvement.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Democrats’ fall priorities: House control first, Senate reality check, states as the long game: Charlie Cook writing in National Journal argues Democrats should focus on winning the House and rebuilding power in state races rather than chasing long-shot Senate seats.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

— FMCSA issues Regional Emergency Declaration granting hours-of-service relief amid severe winter storms: Temporary HOS relief applies across 40+ states for emergency response through early February.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Lake-enhanced snow targets the Great Lakes, while rain advances into the Pacific Northwest.

TOP STORIES — Clean Fuels Alliance presses Trump on biofuel rules as Clive, Iowa visit spotlights farm-state stakesIndustry urges swift action on RFS volumes and 45Z guidance amid regulatory delays weighing on rural investment Trump will appear at the Horizon Events Center in Clive, Iowa, a suburb of Des Moines. White House Press Secretary Katherine Leavitt offered few details about the trip, saying the president would be “traveling to Des Moines, Iowa. He will be making a local visit at a local business, and then he will be giving a speech on affordability and on the economy. And I know he very much looks forward to being there, to meeting with the great people of Iowa, but also lawmakers as well.” Several Iowa officials have confirmed they will join Trump during the visit, including Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-Iowa) and Reps. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and Zach Nunn (R-Iowa). Protests are also expected outside the venue where Trump is scheduled to speak. Notably absent so far is any mention of biofuel policy or a visit to an ethanol plant — an option that had been discussed last week when news of the trip first emerged. The closest ethanol production facility is roughly 35 miles west of Clive.Biofuel policy has drawn renewed attention in Iowa and across agricultural states after lawmakers failed last week to include a provision allowing year-round sales of E15 fuel in spending plans for Fiscal Year (FY) 2026. Some supporters have pointed to a lack of White House engagement on the issue as a factor in its exclusion from the package the Senate is expected to take up this week to avert a partial government shutdown. The current continuing resolution expires Jan. 30, with funding set to lapse Jan. 31 absent further action. Ahead of Trump’s visit, Clean Fuels Alliance America is sharpening its push for fast-tracked biofuel policy decisions, warning that prolonged regulatory uncertainty is undercutting fuel production, farm income, and rural jobs. In a letter (link) timed to the Iowa stop — a symbolic backdrop for corn and soybean producers — Clean Fuels urges the administration to promptly finalize two long-awaited items:  1) Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for 2026 and 2027, and  2) implementation rules for the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit.  Both were due under the prior administration and, the group says, their absence has stalled investment across biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The trade group frames the issue as one of energy security and rural prosperity. It argues that producers have already invested heavily to expand low-carbon fuel capacity, but delays at EPA and Treasury have dampened output and reduced the value added back to agriculture. Clean Fuels explicitly casts Trump as a potential catalyst, asking him to “quickly finalize these policies” and cement his pledge to be the most pro-biofuel president in history. The timing is notable. The administration recently completed interagency review of the proposed 45Z rules — the final step before public release and a formal comment period — signaling that Treasury guidance may soon be unveiled. Clean Fuels says clarity on 45Z is essential for project financing and feedstock demand, particularly as SAF pathways compete for the same oils and fats used by biodiesel and renewable diesel producers. Of note: The Fields of Freedom Alliance, run by former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, has a new ad up (link) pressing members of Congress to allow year-round sale of E15 fuel.  Politico is reporting that one Republican lawmaker viewed the NCGA statement on E15 as throwing them under the bus and it was an unforced error on NCGA’s part. We previously reported that corn and biofuel lobbyists put too much reliance on API support when a few small refiners balked, and the clear goal of GOP leaders was to avoid attaching any sensitive policy issue to a must-pass minibus spending measure. Kurt Kovarik, the group’s vice president of federal affairs, underscores the economic stakes: uncertainty has already taken a toll on production and rural investment, even as the industry has demonstrated it can supply affordable, domestically produced transportation fuels. He invited the president to tour biodiesel and renewable diesel plants during his economic swing, arguing that decisive policy would translate directly into jobs and renewed growth in farm communities. More broadly, the appeal aligns with Trump’s Iowa visit, where farm-state voters are closely watching how the administration balances fuel affordability, refinery compliance, and biofuel expansion. Final RFS volumes would set the demand signal for the next two years, while 45Z guidance will determine whether new low-carbon fuel projects move from planning to construction. For Clean Fuels and its members, the message is clear: regulatory follow-through now would turn pro-biofuel rhetoric into tangible gains for agriculture and rural economies.  Topics Trump is expected to focus on 1. Energy and the economyNews reports widely report that Trump’s speech will be centered on energy policy and broader economic issues — the core theme of the event. Energy is especially relevant given Iowa’s large biofuels and agricultural sector, and stakeholders are urging the administration to finalize guidance on the 45Z clean fuels tax credit ahead of the visit. 2. Support for biofuels and related policiesIndustry groups — especially renewable fuels advocates — want Trump to use the visit to back finalizing rules for the 45Z clean fuels production tax credit, which could directly affect biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel production. 3. Campaign and midterm themesThe trip kicks off a series of weekly campaign-style travel ahead of the 2026 midterm elections — suggesting Trump may weave in broader GOP political messaging about costs, jobs, energy independence, and national priorities. 4. Endorsements Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) issued a public statement backing the visit and praising Republican achievements on issues like lowering costs, border security, and crime — indicating some of the framing Trump may echo in his address. Bottom Line: The Iowa stop is part of a broader effort to highlight economic themes and connect with key swing or priority states ahead of November. Of interest is whether Trump’s remarks resonate with Iowa’s agricultural and energy interests — especially ethanol and renewable fuels sectors which are politically significant in the state.  — Corn demand and E15: What’s the impact? On last Friday’s AgriTalk program, I said implied E15 adds about $1 to the price of corn. I am trying to figure out where I got that information and will report after I find it, again.  Meanwhile, Krista Swanson, Chief Economist of the National Corn Growers Association, emailed me: “I don’t think NCGA has ever put out a number like that, but if so, I wanted to run it down and at least verify method or be aware in case it comes up again. I generally would say something in the $0.30-$0.40/bushel is much more realistic. In the economic impact study that we published with RFA last fall (link), we used an assumption of $0.35 per bushel higher corn price at full implementation. That’s an estimated based on partial equilibrium modeling that considers changes in production and other demand streams that would happen in reality. I think to get anywhere close to $1 you’d have to model with assumptions that it’s completely new demand and there are no other responding changes in production or other uses.” — Trump’s immigration stance shifts after Minnesota crisisTrump signals de-escalation and cooperation with Minnesota leaders amid fallout from federal agent shootings President Donald Trump has taken a notably more conciliatory approach on immigration enforcement following intense backlash over federal immigration operations in Minnesota, where two American citizens — including ICU nurse Alex Pretti — were fatally shot by federal agents.  In a shift from his earlier hard-line nationwide deportation strategy, Trump on Monday dispatched his White House border czar, Tom Homan, to Minneapolis to manage and de-escalate the situation. Trump also spoke with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) in what he described as “very good,” “productive” conversations, with all parties reporting progress toward reducing tensions and improving coordination.  Following the call with Walz, Trump indicated he would consider scaling back the number of federal immigration agents in Minnesota and allow state authorities to conduct an independent investigation into the shootings. The move and softened rhetoric mark a departure from Trump’s previous uncompromising rhetoric on mass deportations and confrontational stance toward Minnesota officials, and come as public and political criticism — including from within his own party — mounts over the aggressive enforcement tactics used under “Operation Metro Surge.” — Partial government shutdown odds rise as DHS funding standoff hardensDemocrats push to split DHS from minibus as CR deadline nears Prospects for a partial U.S. gov’t shutdown are increasing as lawmakers remain deadlocked over Fiscal Year 2026 spending plans pending before the Senate. Senate Democrats are pressing to pull the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding measure out of a six-bill “minibus” package so the five remaining appropriations bills can advance on their own. Senate Republicans, however, have moved to force procedural votes on the full minibus, which will require 60 votes to advance — meaning GOP leaders will need Democratic support. So far, only Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) has publicly backed moving forward with the package, even as he also called for DHS funding to be split off. That outcome, though, is widely viewed as unlikely. With the current continuing resolution (CR) set to expire on Jan. 30, agencies without enacted funding would be forced to halt operations, raising the risk that the DHS impasse could trigger at least a partial government shutdown. — Trump escalates trade pressure on Seoul with new tariff threatPresident cites South Korea’s failure to ratify a prior trade agreement as justification for higher duties President Donald Trump threatened Monday to raise tariffs on South Korean goods to 25%, escalating trade tensions with South Korea over what he described as the country’s failure to formally codify a trade deal reached last year. In a social media post, Trump said tariffs on autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and other reciprocal goods would rise from 15% to 25%, arguing that the South Korean legislature has not enacted what he called a “historic” agreement. While acknowledging that ratification is Seoul’s prerogative, the president framed the move as a direct response to legislative inaction. The threat fits a broader pattern of recent trade brinkmanship. Trump has also warned of steep tariffs on Canadian products if Ottawa finalizes a trade deal with China, floated new charges on European goods amid disputes tied to Greenland, and said he could impose tariffs on countries doing business with Iran to pressure Tehran over anti-government protests. So far, however, the administration has not followed through on several of these threats by actually imposing the higher tariffs. The latest warning, reported by Bloomberg Government, adds to uncertainty for global markets and U.S. trading partners already navigating an increasingly volatile trade environment. — EU lawmakers stall on U.S. trade deal as Greenland tariff threats disrupt timelineParliamentary leaders say no decision has been made on restarting approval procedures, pushing key votes into late February or March European lawmakers have yet to decide how to proceed with ratification of the EU/U.S. trade deal struck last summer, after President Donald Trump’s tariff threats tied to Greenland disrupted the European Parliament’s legislative calendar, according to International Trade Committee chair Bernd Lange. The European Parliament’s International Trade Committee (INTA) was expected to vote this week on amendments to European Commission legislation that would implement EU tariff cuts on U.S. industrial goods and select agricultural products. Proposed changes include a sunset clause and a provision requiring the U.S. to cap steel and aluminum tariffs on EU exports. That vote was postponed after Trump threatened tariffs on eight European countries — including six EU member states — over their opposition to his demand that the U.S. acquire Greenland. Although Trump later withdrew the tariff threat, signaling from European Parliament President Roberta Metsola that lawmakers could move quickly proved premature. “No decision taken on resumption of EU/U.S. ordinary legislative procedures today,” Lange said on social media, adding that the Parliament’s negotiating team will reassess the situation on Feb. 4 ahead of a potential INTA committee meeting on Feb. 23–24. Under EU rules, INTA must approve the implementing legislation before it can advance to a full parliamentary vote. The Parliament’s next plenary session runs Feb. 9–12, but the first session following INTA’s late-February window would not occur until March 9–12 — effectively delaying the process by weeks. Even if Parliament signs off, the deal would still need to enter trilogue negotiations with the European Commission and EU member states, after which all three bodies would again have to approve the final text. U.S. officials have grown increasingly frustrated with the pace. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick traveled to Brussels in November to press EU counterparts, with Greer at the time saying the process appeared “on the right track.” Patience in Washington may be wearing thin. President Trump this week said he would reimpose tariffs on several South Korean products after Seoul’s legislature failed to implement a bilateral deal reached last July — a warning signal that similar delays in Europe could once again trigger tariff escalation. — French pesticide ban seen as blow to U.S. farm exportsFormer USDA trade official warns zero-tolerance rule will raise costs and fuel trade tensions France’s new ban on imports of food products containing trace residues of five EU-banned pesticides will hurt U.S. agricultural exporters and drive up prices, according to Ted McKinney, a former senior USDA trade official. The Jan. 5 decree bars non-EU goods — including grains, soybeans, fruits, and vegetables — if any detectable residues are found, even though several of the pesticides are legal in the United States. France is also pressing the European Commission to apply the ban EU-wide by zeroing out residue limits. McKinney said exporters will face higher testing and certification costs, pushing prices higher. A USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report estimates the measure could affect $130 million in U.S. exports to France. EU officials are reviewing the decree after member states raised questions about its scientific basis and feasibility. McKinney called the policy protectionist and said he hopes U.S. trade officials raise the issue in negotiations with the EU. — Carney downplays Trump’s 100% tariff threat as USMCA posturingCanadian prime minister says warning tied to looming trade pact review, not recent China tariff adjustments Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100 % tariffs on Canadian goods should be viewed as negotiating “positioning” ahead of an expected review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), rather than an imminent trade action tied to Canada’s recent dealings with China. Speaking Monday at a Jan. 26 affordability event, Carney said the administration’s rhetoric reflects the broader context of a forthcoming, and likely contentious, USMCA review. He emphasized that while the president is a “strong negotiator,” recent comments should be seen as part of that negotiating posture rather than a signal of immediate tariff escalation. The comments follow Trump’s Jan. 24 social media post warning that Canada would face 100 percent tariffs if it pursued a trade deal with China. That warning came after Carney announced limited tariff reductions on select Chinese goods — including electric vehicles, seafood, and certain food products — following a recent visit to Beijing. Carney and senior officials on both sides of the border have since stressed that the measures announced with China do not constitute a free trade agreement and therefore do not violate USMCA rules. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed that view in a Jan. 25 television interview, saying the tariff threat would apply only if Canada moved toward a full free trade agreement with China or allowed dumping of Chinese goods. Canada/U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said he held a “cordial, lengthy” call with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, during which he reiterated that Canada remains bound by — and committed to — USMCA provisions barring free trade agreements with non-market economies. LeBlanc said Greer understood that Canada’s recent China actions were narrowly focused tariff adjustments, not the opening of FTA negotiations. Canadian officials also drew parallels to the U.S./China trade détente reached last fall, when Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to ease certain trade barriers, including steps that boosted Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. LeBlanc said the discussion with Greer ultimately reinforced a shared interest in working collaboratively with Mexico on the upcoming USMCA review, with additional talks planned in the coming weeks.  — Bessent says Ottawa softened tone after Davos dust-upTreasury chief says Carney backtracked in call with Trump as tariff stakes and USMCA rules loom over U.S./Canada trade talks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney “walked back” remarks he made last week at the World Economic Forum, following a phone call with Donald Trump. Speaking on Fox News’ Hannity, Bessent said he was with the president in the Oval Office during the call and described Carney as “very aggressively” retreating from comments Bessent characterized as unfortunate. Bessent underscored Canada’s economic reliance on the U.S., warning it would be “a disaster” for Canada if Washington imposed additional tariffs on Canadian goods. As noted, Canadian officials have emphasized to U.S. counterparts that recent China/Canada discussions during Carney’s visit to Beijing did not amount to a free trade agreement. Carney reinforced that point Monday, noting that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement requires formal notice to partners if an FTA were being pursued — a step Canada says it has not taken. The comments highlight how sensitive the bilateral relationship remains as tariff threats resurface and USMCA procedural guardrails shape the scope of Canada’s external trade talks.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: In Asia, Japan +0.9%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China +0.2%. India +0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt flat. U.S. equity markets head into a heavy earnings day as Boeing, General Motors, and UnitedHealth Group report before the bell. Boeing’s fourth quarter caps a fragile turnaround year marked by production gains, asset sales, and an acquisition, but cash flow remains negative and certification hurdles loom in 2026. GM’s results will reflect a $6 billion EV writedown and a $1.1 billion China restructuring charge. UnitedHealth launches earnings season for insurers, with investors focused on its 2026 outlook and medical cost trends. 

This week’s Fed meeting is expected to leave rates unchanged but is overshadowed by political pressure on central bank independence.

U.S. core capital goods orders rose for a fifth straight month, reinforcing a resilient business investment outlook. The dollar is again under pressure as investors reassess Trump-era policy risks, while soaring gold prices have lifted mining shares. Bond investors, meanwhile, are cautiously edging back into risk as expectations firm around an extended Fed pause.

— Equities yesterday:

Equity Index	Closing Price  Jan. 26	Point Difference  from Jan. 23	% Difference  from Jan. 23
Dow	49,412.40	+313.69	+0.64%
Nasdaq	23,601.36	+100.11	+0.43%
S&P 500	6,950.23	+34.62	+0.50%

— The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady at 2.25%, with the policy outlook clouded by uncertainty over U.S. trade talks. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced measures aimed at lowering food costs for low-income households, while Ottawa deepens trade diplomacy — including a likely March visit to India and talks with South Korea over a major submarine contract.

— Rieder emerges as Trump’s goldilocks Fed pick

BlackRock executive’s lower-rate stance and focus on affordability vault him to the front of the Fed chair race

Rick Rieder, a senior executive at BlackRock, has rapidly moved from long-shot contender to the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, according to prediction markets. His rise reflects a growing alignment with Donald Trump’s repeated calls for lower interest rates and a sharper focus on affordability.

Rieder is one of four finalists under consideration by Trump. The others include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed governor Christopher Waller, and Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council — though Trump has indicated he prefers to keep Hassett in his current White House role.

Trump recently described Rieder as “very impressive” following an interview earlier this month. Rieder oversees roughly $2.7 trillion in client assets as BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income and sits on the firm’s top leadership committee alongside CEO Larry Fink. A frequent presence on financial television, Rieder has long argued that interest rates should be lower and that monetary policy should better account for real-world impacts on housing costs, borrowing, and household affordability.

Substantively, Rieder has criticized the Fed for leaning too heavily on backward-looking inflation data while underestimating structural changes in the economy. He has pointed to productivity gains from artificial intelligence, automation, and improved logistics, arguing that policy decisions operate with long lags and risk overshooting as economic conditions evolve.

What’s next: As of Monday afternoon, Polymarket odds put Rieder’s chances of securing the nomination at 43.5%, ahead of Warsh at 29%, Waller at 9.2%, and Hassett at 7.2%. A formal announcement could come as soon as this week.

— UPS lifts 2026 outlook as it pulls back from low-margin Amazon business

Carrier leans into higher-paying shipments, boosting margins despite softer volumes

United Parcel Service boosted its earnings outlook and forecast higher revenue for 2026 as it continues to scale back shipments for Amazon, its largest customer, in favor of more profitable business.

UPS on Tuesday projected 2026 revenue of $89.7 billion, up from $88.7 billion in 2025, alongside an adjusted operating margin of 9.6%. The improved outlook reflects the company’s ongoing strategy to reduce exposure to lower-margin deliveries — particularly those tied to Amazon — and prioritize higher-paying domestic and international shipments.

The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion, down from $25.3 billion a year earlier, as overall shipping volumes declined. Still, results exceeded expectations, helped by strong pricing discipline during the critical holiday shipping season. UPS posted profit of $2.38 per share, topping analyst forecasts.

Operationally, the shift toward profitability showed up clearly in pricing metrics. Domestic revenue per piece rose 8.3%, even as volumes fell, while international revenue per piece increased 7.1%, underscoring the company’s push toward premium shipments.

UPS first announced plans in January 2025 to reduce Amazon-related deliveries, describing that business as “extraordinarily dilutive.” The latest results suggest that strategy is gaining traction, with margin improvement offsetting weaker top-line growth and positioning the carrier for steadier earnings performance in 2026.

AG MARKETS

— USDA daily export sales for 2025/26:
• 110,000 MT corn to unknown destinations 
• 306,000 MT sorghum to unknown destinations

— Record milk production masks growing dairy herd strain

Beef-on-dairy economics and aging cows prop up output while the replacement pipeline thins

U.S. milk production is hitting record levels, but those volumes are increasingly misleading about the underlying health of the dairy sector, according to an analysis (link) by Daniel Munch for Farm Bureau. Milk cow inventories are at their highest level since 1993, even as replacement heifer numbers have dropped to their lowest since 1978 — a widening gap driven by short-term herd management rather than sustainable growth.

Producers have leaned heavily on historically low culling rates and longer cow lifespans, buoyed by strong beef prices and lucrative beef-on-dairy premiums. That strategy has helped stabilize total farm revenue through calf sales, but it has also inflated milk supply and weighed on farm-level milk prices, blunting the traditional price signals that once guided gradual herd adjustments.

The growing use of beef genetics has further tightened the pipeline of dairy-bred heifers, raising the risk that today’s production strength cannot be maintained. An aging herd and fewer replacements leave the industry more vulnerable to abrupt supply shifts when conditions change.

Globally, expanding milk output in the U.S. and other exporting regions has pressured prices, even as lower U.S. prices have boosted competitiveness abroad. Butter and cheese exports reached record levels in 2025, providing some relief but not enough to fully offset margin pressure on farms.

The takeaway from Farm Bureau’s Market Intel analysis is stark: current record production masks structural strain. With milk supply increasingly dependent on older cows and a shrinking replacement base, the industry may be setting itself up for tighter — and potentially more volatile — milk markets ahead.

— EU moves to curb duty-free sugar imports to support producers

Commission proposes suspending inward processing regime amid price slump and import surge
 

The European Commission has proposed temporarily suspending a scheme that allows duty-free sugar imports into the European Union, a move aimed at easing mounting pressure on European sugar producers facing falling prices and intensifying competition.

European Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Christophe Hansen said late Monday that he would propose suspending the sugar inward processing regime (IPR), which permits companies to import sugar at zero duty and without volume limits as long as it is refined or processed and then re-exported outside the EU.

Under the IPR, raw sugar imports in the 2024/25 marketing year reached 587,000 metric tons — up 19% from the previous year — with 95% sourced from Brazil, according to Commission data. White sugar imports under the scheme totaled 155,000 tons, a 5% year-on-year increase, with Brazil accounting for 43%, followed by Morocco, Egypt, and Ukraine.

European sugar beet producers argue that rising imports have contributed to a supply glut, pushing EU sugar prices to their lowest levels in at least three years. Growers have also warned about the potential impact of a prospective trade deal with the Mercosur bloc, which would expand sugar import quotas.

The European sugar beet growers’ lobby CIBE welcomed the Commission’s move, calling it timely and necessary. The group said the suspension would “provide the right signal and some relief on a very depressed EU sugar market.”

— Agriculture markets yesterday: 

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price  Jan. 26	Difference vs.  Jan. 25
Corn	March	$4.28 1/4	-2 1/4¢
Soybeans	March	$10.61 3/4	-6¢
Soybean Meal	March	$294.30	-$5.60
Soybean Oil	March	53.89¢	-10 pts
Wheat (SRW)	March	$5.22 1/2	-7¢
Wheat (HRW)	March	$5.29 3/4	-11¢
Spring Wheat	March	$5.69 3/4	-5 1/4¢
Cotton	March	62.97¢	-84 pts
Live Cattle	April	$238.00	+$1.075
Feeder Cattle	March	$362.60	+$2.425
Lean Hogs	April	$96.725	+55¢

FARM POLICY

— 2026 farm program payment limits: no single cap, multiple buckets

Each major USDA program carries its own limit in 2026, allowing producers to stack payments across programs — but entity structure and AGI rules matter 

Writing in his Jan. 27 paid newsletter (link), Paul Neiffer of Farm CPA Today explains that a common misconception heading into 2026 is the idea of a single, overarching payment limit across USDA farm programs. In reality, each program has its own cap, and those limits do not overlap.

Neiffer notes that a producer could receive payments from ARC/PLC, the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP), Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA), and other programs in the same year — with each governed by a separate payment limit.

Key takeaways include:

ARC/PLC:

The 2026 payment limit is expected to fall between $155,000 and $160,000, pending final USDA guidance. There is no higher limit for producers whose adjusted gross income (AGI) is more than 75 percent from farming — just one overall cap.

SDRP (Stages 1 and 2):

Payments are capped at $125,000 each for specialty and non-specialty crops. That means a diversified operation growing both types could receive up to $250,000.
 

If more than 75% of AGI comes from farming, the limits rise sharply — $250,000 for non-specialty crops and $900,000 for specialty crops, for a combined maximum of $1.15 million. Neiffer cautions that the AGI test is applied both at the entity and individual owner level, which can reduce eligibility.

Stage interaction:

Producers who hit the SDRP cap in Stage 1 have already exhausted their payment limit and cannot receive more in Stage 2.

Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA):

The program carries a single $155,000 limit, but how it applies depends on business structure.

General partnerships or joint ventures: The limit applies per owner.

LLCs and S corporations: Currently treated as having one total limit.

Neiffer adds that LLCs and S corporations may receive partnership-style limits for 2025 ARC/PLC payments under changes made by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), but USDA has not yet confirmed this interpretation.

Bottom Line: 2026 payments can add up quickly across programs, but the final outcome hinges on crop mix, AGI qualification, and how a farm is legally structured.

Pay limits and the tentative new farmer aid plan making its way in the Senate  Neiffer did not comments on pay limits and the likely new farmer aid package being discussed in the Senate.  • Higher payment limits: The likely Senate farmer aid plan does the same thing as ECAP, applying an average gross income test (rather than an adjusted gross income test) solely for purpose of determining pay limit which would be $165,000 per person if less than 75% of average gross income comes from farming, or $250,000 per person if 75% or more is derived from farming.  Upshot: no means test that locks you out of the program. There is only a means test to determine how much you are eligible to receive.

— CRP delivers environmental gains without undermining rural economies, new analysis finds

A comprehensive national study finds the Conservation Reserve Program modestly boosts property values and rural employment — while showing no evidence of long-term rural depopulation

A new report (link) from Resources for the Future examines the local economic impacts of the U.S. Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the nation’s largest working-lands conservation initiative, which pays farmers to retire environmentally sensitive cropland in exchange for annual rental payments. While CRP’s environmental benefits are well established, the study focuses on how the program affects rural communities economically and demographically.

Analyzing nationwide data spanning two decades, the authors find that CRP enrollment is associated with small but measurable increases in nearby residential property values, particularly where land is converted to tree cover. Specifically, adding roughly 25 acres of CRP land within about 0.6 miles of a home is associated with about a 0.5%–0.7% increase in sale price, with tree-cover CRP producing the largest gains — about 2% for the same increase in nearby acres. 

Based on current enrollment, the report estimates these localized amenity effects add about $3 billion to residential real estate value nationwide, or roughly $60 million per year.

The report also finds that CRP supports rural employment and business activity, countering long-standing concerns that land retirement weakens rural economies. Increases in county-level CRP enrollment are linked to modest job gains — about eight additional rural jobs per 1,000 acres enrolled — with benefits strongest in agriculture and closely related industries, and spillovers into local service sectors such as retail, recreation, and hospitality. Tree cover again shows the largest and most persistent economic effects.

On population trends, the study finds no evidence that CRP contributes to sustained rural depopulation. While there is a small, short-term dip in net in-migration following enrollment increases, this effect reverses within a few years, leaving no meaningful long-run impact on migration.

Overall, the report concludes that the CRP delivers environmental benefits while also providing net social gains to rural communities, largely through stabilized farm income and enhanced local amenities. As lawmakers debate the program’s future — including proposals to scale it back or expand flexibility — the findings suggest CRP can advance conservation goals without harming rural economic vitality, especially when enrollment emphasizes higher-impact practices such as tree cover. 

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Tuesday: Winter storm disruptions offset by Kazakhstan supply keep oil prices steady

U.S. production losses and refinery outages tighten near-term supply, but resumed flows from Kazakhstan and profit-taking cap gains

Oil prices were little changed Tuesday as a massive winter storm disrupted U.S. crude production and strained refineries along the Gulf Coast, while renewed supply from Kazakhstan helped offset upward pressure.

Brent crude slipped 6 cents to $65.53 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate edged down 1 cent to $60.62.

Analysts estimate U.S. producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day over the weekend — roughly 15% of national output — as freezing conditions hit energy infrastructure and power grids. Several Gulf Coast refineries also reported weather-related issues, raising concerns about near-term fuel supply disruptions and potential drawdowns in oil inventories if cold conditions persist.

Those risks were tempered by signs of improving supply elsewhere. Kazakhstan is poised to resume production at its largest oilfield, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium said it has returned to full loading capacity at its Black Sea export terminal following maintenance, though industry sources cautioned volumes remain low.

Market dynamics were further shaped by profit-taking in heating oil after sharp recent gains tied to U.S. cold weather. 

On the geopolitical front, supply risks remain elevated as the United States expanded its naval presence in the Middle East under President Donald Trump, amid ongoing regional tensions involving Iran.

Looking ahead, traders are also watching OPEC+, which is expected to maintain its pause on output increases for March at a February 1 meeting, reinforcing a cautious supply outlook.

— Monday: Oil prices ease after storm-driven rally as supply fears fade

Short-lived U.S. output losses and easing risks abroad temper gains, while geopolitics keep a floor under prices

Oil prices edged lower Monday after posting strong gains late last week, as traders reassessed the impact of winter-related U.S. production outages against improving supply conditions elsewhere and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Brent crude slipped 29 cents, 0.4%, to settle at $65.59 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 44 cents, or 0.7%, to $60.63. The pullback followed a roughly 2.7% rally on Friday that pushed both benchmarks to their highest levels since mid-January.

Severe winter weather over the weekend temporarily disrupted U.S. oil output, with analysts estimating peak losses of as much as 2 million barrels per day, largely concentrated in the Permian Basin. Those shut-ins appeared brief, however, with production recovering sharply by Monday and most volumes expected to return by month-end.

Supply concerns were also moderated by developments in Kazakhstan. Officials signaled that production at the country’s largest oilfield is poised to resume, though volumes remain constrained and a force majeure on CPC Blend exports is still in place. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said its Black Sea terminal has returned to full loading capacity following maintenance, easing export bottlenecks.

Geopolitics continued to underpin prices. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remained in focus after Donald Trump reiterated warnings to Tehran and confirmed U.S. naval movements into the region, while expressing hope that military action could be avoided. Iranian officials said any attack would be treated as an act of war, keeping a risk premium embedded in crude markets.

Looking ahead, investors are watching for clarity on U.S./Iran relations, Ukraine-Russia peace efforts, and OPEC+ policy. The producer group is widely expected to maintain its pause on output increases at its upcoming meeting. Longer term, analysts caution that a sustained price downturn could pressure U.S. shale production — particularly if OPEC+ opts to defend market share.

— U.S. natural gas prices surge to highest in three years after devastating winter storm

Spike in wholesale energy costs to push up consumer bills as the White House faces growing criticism over energy affordability failures

U.S. natural gas prices have soared to their highest level in three years following a powerful winter storm that swept across the southern and eastern United States, driving up heating demand and straining supply infrastructure. The sharp rise in wholesale gas prices comes as households and businesses face the prospect of higher energy bills in the coming months, adding to inflationary pressures on consumer budgets. Washington policymakers have encountered criticism from consumer groups and some lawmakers for what critics describe as a failure to keep energy affordable during extreme weather events.

TRADE POLICY

— EU and India near long-awaited trade agreement

Deal would cut tariffs, expand services access, and deepen strategic ties amid global trade fragmentation

The European Union and India have reached a breakthrough on a long-stalled trade agreement, moving closer to a pact that would significantly reduce tariffs, expand market access, and strengthen supply-chain cooperation.

Details: The agreement is expected to lower duties on autos, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and machinery, while improving access for services — a key priority for India. The EU secured stronger investor and intellectual property protections, while India preserved safeguards for politically sensitive agricultural sectors.

Officials on both sides frame the deal as strategically important as much as economic, reflecting efforts to diversify supply chains away from China and reduce exposure to tariff-driven trade uncertainty. The pact would rank among the EU’s most significant trade agreements by population and long-term growth potential.

Final legal review and ratification are still required, with implementation likely phased over several years, but momentum appears stronger than at any point in the past decade.

— The case for breaking the rules of global trade

Why Donald Trump’s disruptive trade strategy revives a long-standing U.S. tradition of pragmatism over rigid global rules

In a sweeping argument that reframes the current trade upheaval, Peter E. Harrell, writing in Foreign Affairs magazine, contends that the Trump administration’s assault on the post–Cold War trading system is not a historical aberration but a return to America’s traditional approach to trade — one grounded in pragmatism, flexibility, and national interest rather than universal rules.

Harrell argues that the rules-based global trade order, crystallized in the 1990s through institutions like the World Trade Organization, was a product of a unique moment: U.S. economic dominance, ideological consensus around neoliberalism, and the absence of great-power rivals. That moment has passed. Deep domestic disagreements over industrial policy, subsidies, antitrust enforcement, and state involvement in the economy now make it unrealistic — and counterproductive — for Washington to champion rigid global trade rules.

Against that backdrop, Harrell places Donald Trump within a longer American tradition. For most of U.S. history, presidents used tariffs, quotas, sector-specific deals, and currency coordination to solve discrete problems. The idea that trade should be governed primarily by universal, binding rules is, in Harrell’s telling, historically abnormal.

He highlights Ronald Reagan as a key example of pragmatic trade policy. Reagan supported freer trade in principle but routinely intervened when U.S. industries were threatened — negotiating voluntary export restraints with Japan on automobiles, using Section 301 to pressure Tokyo on semiconductors, and coordinating the Plaza Accord to weaken an overvalued dollar. These actions were narrowly targeted, temporary, and aimed at restoring competitiveness rather than enforcing abstract rules.

Harrell contrasts that approach with the post-Cold War turn toward comprehensive rulemaking, when Washington used its unrivaled leverage to expand the scope of trade agreements and embed enforcement mechanisms. That system, he argues, is ill-suited to today’s realities — especially strategic competition with China, whose massive trade surpluses and state-driven industrial model cannot be addressed through rule compliance alone.

Although Harrell criticizes Trump’s excessive reliance on tariffs — particularly on consumer goods and inputs the U.S. does not produce — he sees value in other elements of the administration’s approach. Bilateral and sector-specific deals, tighter links between trade and national security, coordinated pressure on allies to limit exposure to Chinese overcapacity, and new tools such as state-backed investment funds all reflect a more flexible, problem-solving mindset.

The central prescription is clear: future U.S. leaders should discard tariff excesses but retain Trump’s willingness to abandon ideological attachment to global rules. In a world defined by fractured economic models, industrial policy, and geopolitical rivalry, Harrell argues that American trade policy must once again prioritize pragmatism over principle — even if that means deliberately tilting the playing field in Washington’s favor.

CONGRESS

— Senate Ag panel preps crypto markup as amendments aim to curb political influence

Proposed changes would bar bailouts, block foreign adversaries, and expand CFTC oversight to meme coins and network tokens

The Senate Ag Committee is set to markup crypto market legislation Thursday that would give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission new authority over spot digital commodity trading — including markets for bitcoin, ethereum, and litecoin — following weather-related delays earlier this week.

Ahead of the markup, senators filed a series of amendments designed to narrow political involvement and harden guardrails around the emerging regulatory regime. Key proposals would limit the role of the White House and members of Congress in crypto oversight decisions, prohibit taxpayer-backed bailouts for blockchain creators, and bar participation by foreign adversaries in U.S. spot digital commodity markets.

The updated base text would also bring meme coins and network tokens under CFTC jurisdiction. At the same time, it would allow the agency limited discretion to exempt certain meme coins and network tokens from specific rules or regulations, signaling a flexible approach as markets evolve.

Separately, an amendment offered by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) would address credit cards. However, reports indicate the proposal falls outside the committee’s jurisdiction and is unlikely to be taken up during the markup.

The panel shifted the session to Thursday after winter weather disrupted Senate operations earlier in the week, compressing the timeline for debate but leaving the core regulatory push intact.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Democrats’ fall priorities: House control first, Senate reality check, states as the long game

Charlie Cook argues Democrats are best positioned to win the House — but warns that chasing long-shot Senate seats may distract from far more winnable and consequential state races

Writing in National Journal, veteran election analyst Charlie Cook lays out a blunt assessment of Democratic priorities heading into the fall: the party is well positioned to retake the House, faces steep odds expanding its Senate footprint beyond a narrow defensive map, and would be strategically wiser to invest far more heavily in governorships and state legislatures that shape the political pipeline for the next decade.

Cook opens by arguing that Republicans are underestimating the long-term consequences of consolidating executive power under President Donald Trump, particularly through embrace of the unitary executive theory. History suggests that power accumulated by one party is eventually wielded by the other — and midterms almost always punish the party in the White House.

Trump’s weak standing with independents, Cook notes, creates a structural disadvantage for Republicans in competitive districts. Recent polling shows Trump’s approval among independents in the mid-30s to low-40s range, a level that makes it exceptionally difficult for GOP candidates to overperform in purple states and swing House seats. At the same time, strong loyalty among Republican voters limits the number of defections Democrats can expect in red territory.

That dynamic makes a Democratic House takeover in November highly likely, Cook argues — though the shrinking number of competitive districts means the party may struggle to build more than a narrow majority above the 218-seat threshold.

The Senate picture is far less forgiving. Cook calls Democratic hopes of flipping multiple red-leaning Senate seats a “fool’s errand,” pointing out the near-total absence of Democrats holding statewide office in states like Alaska, Nebraska, and Texas. He cautions against over-reading past results, such as former Rep. Mary Peltola’s Alaska wins, which were shaped by ranked-choice voting and unusually weak Republican opponents — conditions unlikely to apply in a race against a sitting GOP senator.

Among truly realistic Senate priorities, Cook highlights defending vulnerable or open Democratic seats and targeting a small number of plausible Republican holds: reelecting Jon Ossoff in Georgia, holding Michigan and New Hampshire, competing seriously in North Carolina, and attempting to unseat Sen. Susan Collins in Maine. Beyond that tier, the difficulty level rises sharply.

Where Cook sees the biggest missed opportunity is outside Washington. With federal dysfunction pushing more power to the states, the 2026 ballot is packed with consequential races: 36 governorships, dozens of attorneys general and secretaries of state, and control of 88 of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers. Five of the seven presidential swing states will elect governors, and legislative control in places like Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Hampshire is genuinely competitive.

These offices, Cook stresses, are not side shows. They determine redistricting leverage, election administration, policy direction, and — critically — the next generation of viable congressional and statewide candidates. Neglecting them in favor of symbolic Senate long shots risks weakening the party’s bench for years to come.

The bottom line, Cook argues, is strategic discipline: secure the House, protect the Senate where victory is plausible, and pour far more energy into rebuilding Democratic strength in state capitals — where the real long-term power struggles are increasingly being decided.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

— FMCSA issues Regional Emergency Declaration granting hours-of-service relief amid severe winter storms

Temporary waiver covers 40+ states as extreme cold and winter weather disrupt essential transportation and supply chains

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has issued a Regional Emergency Declaration (link) providing temporary regulatory relief from federal hours-of-service rules for commercial motor vehicle drivers responding to severe winter storms and dangerously cold temperatures across a broad swath of the country. 

Issued Jan. 23, the declaration applies to more than 40 states and the District of Columbia and is intended to support the immediate restoration of essential services and delivery of critical supplies as extreme weather threatens public health, safety, and property. Under the declaration, drivers and motor carriers providing direct assistance to emergency relief efforts are granted relief from maximum driving-time limits for both property- and passenger-carrying vehicles.

The relief is narrowly targeted. It applies only while drivers are actively engaged in emergency response activities — such as transporting fuel, food, heating supplies, or other essential commodities — and does not extend to routine commercial deliveries, mixed loads intended to qualify for relief, or long-term infrastructure repair once the immediate emergency has passed. Drivers or carriers operating under out-of-service orders remain ineligible.

Importantly, the declaration does not waive other safety requirements, including commercial driver’s license rules, drug and alcohol testing, insurance mandates, hazardous materials regulations, or federal size and weight limits.

The emergency declaration is effective immediately and will remain in force until the emergency conditions end or 11:59 p.m. ET on Feb. 6, 2026, whichever occurs first. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration officials said they will continue to monitor conditions and may modify, extend, or terminate the declaration as warranted.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Lake-enhanced snow over the Great Lakes… …Rain moves into the Northwest.