Trump/Xi Meeting Confirmed for Early April 

USTR signals Indonesia trade deal as ‘next big one’

LINKS

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 1, 
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 1, 
 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Feb. , 2026

TOP STORIES—USTR signals Indonesia trade deal as ‘next big one’Greer says agreement could be finalized within weeks; April Trump/Xi meeting remains on track U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said a trade deal with Indonesia is likely to be the next agreement completed, signaling momentum as the Trump administration works to show tangible progress on expanding market access. In an interview on Fox Business, Greer described Indonesia as the “next big one,” adding that negotiators are in almost daily contact and could wrap up the deal within the next couple of weeks. That timeline suggests the administration is eager to lock in a win as questions persist — especially in agriculture — about when promised export gains will materialize. Agriculture implications in focus. Indonesia is a significant and growing market of more than 270 million consumers. For U.S. agriculture, the key areas to watch include:• Soybeans and soybean meal — Indonesia is a major importer, particularly for food and feed uses.• Wheat — The country relies heavily on imports for flour milling.• Dairy and beef — Expanding middle-class demand could create incremental opportunities. •Biofuels and feed ingredients — Potential openings if tariff or non-tariff barriers are eased. U.S. exporters have long cited regulatory hurdles, sanitary and phytosanitary restrictions, and licensing rules as impediments. If the deal includes tariff reductions or streamlined import procedures, it could provide meaningful access gains — especially at a time when producers are pressing for new outlets amid tight margins and uneven global demand. Broader trade optics. Greer also confirmed that a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping remains scheduled for April. That meeting carries weight beyond symbolism. Markets will be watching for signals on tariffs, export controls, and agricultural trade flows — particularly soybeans, corn, and pork. The administration has faced growing pressure from farm groups and commodity organizations seeking concrete results from its trade agenda. While several framework announcements have been made in recent months, producers are looking for enforceable terms, clear tariff reductions, and measurable export commitments. An Indonesia agreement — if finalized quickly — could serve as a proof point that negotiations are moving from rhetoric to signed deals.The bigger question for agriculture: Will this translate into expanded volumes and sustained demand, or will it primarily be incremental access layered onto existing trade flows?—USDA expands sterile fly offensive against New World ScrewwormNew Texas dispersal hub boosts border response capacity, with full production facility slated for 2027 USDA on Monday marked a major step in its fight against New World Screwworm (NWS), completing a sterile fly dispersal facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins traveled to the Rio Grande Valley to highlight the project, calling it a strategic expansion of U.S. containment efforts along the southern border. The new dispersal center strengthens USDA’s ability to respond quickly to any shift in NWS cases in northern Mexico — a key vulnerability zone for U.S. livestock producers. What the Texas facility changes.  Planning for the Moore Air Base dispersal facility began in June 2025. Until now, sterile fly releases aimed at protecting the U.S. have relied heavily on facilities in Central America and Mexico. Under the Jan. 30 USDA announcement, sterile flies targeting outbreaks in northern Mexico will initially be dispersed from the Tampico, Mexico facility. However, the newly completed Texas site gives USDA operational flexibility. If NWS cases shift geographically — or if a new concentration develops closer to the U.S. border — dispersal operations can pivot quickly to Texas. That responsiveness matters. NWS infestations can spread rapidly in livestock, wildlife, and even pets. Early detection and immediate sterile fly release are critical to breaking the reproductive cycle. Why sterile flies work. The sterile insect technique floods affected areas with laboratory-reared male flies that cannot produce viable offspring. When they mate with wild females, the life cycle collapses over successive generations. The U.S. successfully eradicated NWS decades ago using this same strategy, but periodic flare-ups in Central America and Mexico require constant vigilance to prevent reintroduction. For U.S. cattle producers — especially in Texas and other border states — the risk is not theoretical. An outbreak north of the border could trigger trade disruptions, animal health emergencies, and costly movement restrictions. Production capacity set to triple. The dispersal center is only phase one. USDA is also planning a full sterile fly production facility at Moore Air Base, with construction expected to begin later this spring. Secretary Rollins said the Texas site should be fully operational by the end of 2027. Once complete, the North American network will be able to produce up to 500 million sterile flies per week:• 100 million per week at the COPEG facility in Panama• 100 million per week at the Metapa, Mexico facility (currently undergoing renovation)• 300 million per week at the Moore Air Base facility in Texas That represents a substantial expansion of U.S.-linked capacity and reduces reliance on overseas production during surge conditions. Strategic implications. This move does three important things:• Enhances border biosecurity — providing a domestic rapid-deployment option.• Builds redundancy into the sterile fly supply chain.• Signals long-term commitment to keeping NWS out of the U.S. livestock herd. For cattle and sheep producers already navigating tight margins and animal-health concerns, the facility represents preventative infrastructure — insurance against a biologically expensive setback.Bottom Line: By 2027, if production targets are met, the U.S. and its regional partners will have the largest sterile fly output capacity in history — positioning USDA to respond faster and at greater scale should NWS pressures intensify. —Trump signals tariffs over Mexico water disputeRollins, Abbott say White House ready to enforce 1944 treaty as Rio Grande Valley farmers face mounting shortages The Trump administration is escalating pressure on Mexico over water deliveries owed under the 1944 U.S.–Mexico Water Treaty, with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott warning that tariffs remain firmly on the table. Speaking at a Texas event Monday, Rollins said President Donald Trump is prepared to use trade leverage if Mexico fails to meet its treaty obligations. Trump previously threatened a 5% tariff in December, arguing that Mexico still owes the United States roughly 800,000 acre-feet of water. Quote of note: “He threatened tariffs … and he has every intention of using those tools,” Rollins said. She added that the president directed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to prepare options detailing how such tariffs would be structured and implemented. The dispute centers on the long-running 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty, which governs cross-border water allocations from the Rio Grande and Colorado River basins. Under the agreement, Mexico must deliver specified volumes of water to the United States over five-year cycles. Why it matters for South Texas. Water scarcity has become an acute issue in the Rio Grande Valley, where prolonged drought conditions have compounded frustration over Mexico’s delayed deliveries. Abbott warned that without adequate water flows, farmers in the region may be forced to idle acreage or exit production entirely.“Water is drying up. [Farmers are] not going to be capable of growing the crops that are needed,” Abbott said. “They’re not going to be capable of remaining in business. Grocers, people who go shopping, families — they’re not going to be able to find the produce they want to put on the kitchen table.” The Rio Grande Valley is a key supplier of citrus, vegetables, and other specialty crops. Reduced irrigation supplies have already led to acreage losses and economic strain across South Texas agricultural communities.Trade leverage as enforcement tool. Trump has increasingly linked treaty enforcement to trade policy. The administration’s argument is that tariffs — potentially targeted or broad-based — could compel compliance more quickly than diplomatic pressure alone. Using tariffs to enforce a water treaty would mark a significant escalation in cross-border resource disputes. Mexico has previously cited drought conditions and internal water demands as factors limiting its deliveries. For Texas lawmakers, however, the issue has spanned multiple administrations. Members of Congress from both parties have pushed for stricter enforcement of treaty commitments, arguing that chronic under-deliveries unfairly burden U.S. producers. Upshot: With Trump signaling readiness to act, the water dispute is now moving from a technical compliance debate into the realm of trade policy — raising stakes not only for farmers in South Texas, but also for broader U.S.–Mexico economic relations. —DHS funding talks intensify as shutdown deadline loomsThune signals possible procedural move on stopgap bill as Democrats question GOP offer Negotiations over funding for the Department of Homeland Security are entering a critical stretch, with a shutdown deadline fast approaching and both parties offering sharply different assessments of progress. Congressional Democrats and the White House have exchanged proposals covering DHS operations for the remainder of Fiscal Year 2026. Democrats recently submitted a 10-point plan that would add guardrails to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities — including a requirement that agents seek judicial warrants before entering homes. Republicans have rejected those provisions, arguing they would unduly restrict enforcement operations.Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) struck a cautiously optimistic tone Monday, telling reporters that negotiations “are proceeding in a way that looks like it’s constructive.” He added that if additional time is needed, “we will have to vote on something.” That “something” could be a procedural vote to advance a temporary continuing resolution (CR) to keep DHS funded beyond Friday, when the current stopgap expires. But Thune faces a math problem: advancing a CR in the Senate would likely require at least seven Democratic votes, and it remains unclear whether those votes are there. Some Democratic senators have said their support for a temporary extension hinges on whether meaningful progress is being made in negotiations — suggesting they do not want to simply extend funding absent clearer terms. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) issued a joint statement criticizing the Republican proposal as “incomplete and insufficient,” arguing it included “neither details nor legislative text.” In the House, Republicans are expected to carry any temporary funding measure largely on their own, with little expectation of Democratic backing.Complicating the timeline, both chambers are scheduled to recess next week, and several senators are set to depart Friday for a security conference in Munich. That compressed calendar heightens pressure to resolve the impasse quickly. While most lawmakers publicly signal that a shutdown will ultimately be avoided, the next 24 to 48 hours will be decisive. Whether Democrats view negotiations as substantive — and whether Thune can assemble the votes for a procedural step forward — will determine if DHS funding is extended smoothly or if brinkmanship escalates at the eleventh hour. —House Rules Panel Advances Shield for Trump TariffsGOP extends block on fast-track repeal effort, citing pending Supreme Court review The House Rules Committee voted 8–3 Monday to advance a procedural rule that would temporarily prevent lawmakers from using a fast-track mechanism to terminate President Donald Trump’s tariffs imposed under emergency powers. The provision — folded into a broader rule governing debate on three unrelated bills — would block any expedited effort to disapprove tariffs levied Feb. 1, April 2, July 30 and Aug. 6 of last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The restriction would remain in place through July.House Rules Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) defended the move as a way to give the judiciary time to weigh in. “This extension will allow the Supreme Court the time necessary to provide a ruling on this very consequential issue,” Foxx said. What the rule does. Under current law, Congress can attempt to terminate a presidential emergency declaration — including tariff actions tied to it — through a privileged resolution process that allows for expedited floor consideration. The new rule would effectively sideline that fast-track option for several months, insulating the Trump administration’s tariff structure from immediate congressional reversal while litigation proceeds.Why it matters. Trump relied on the IEEPA to justify tariffs imposed last year, arguing that certain trade practices and supply-chain vulnerabilities constituted a national emergency. Critics have questioned whether IEEPA — historically used for sanctions — is an appropriate vehicle for broad tariff authority.The House has already rejected prior resolutions aimed at halting the tariffs. Monday’s vote signals that GOP leadership wants to keep the issue out of procedural reach while awaiting potential Supreme Court guidance.The move underscores the broader institutional clash over executive trade authority — and whether Congress will reassert more direct control over tariff policy or continue to defer to emergency powers invoked by the White House. —USDA seeks feedback on information collection under refocused climate-smart initiativeComments due April 13 as Trump administration reshapes former Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities programUSDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) is requesting public comments on its ongoing information collection tied to the Advancing Markets for Producers initiative — the program formerly known as the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities effort. According to a Federal Register notice (link) issued through USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), comments are due by April 13. The request is part of a review of reporting and recordkeeping requirements associated with the initiative. From “climate-smart” to market expansion. The initiative has been repositioned under the Trump administration to emphasize market development and producer economics rather than climate metrics. USDA states the effort is designed to:• Prioritize support for producers to expand markets for American agricultural products• Develop new markets and strengthen supply chains• Enable direct-to-consumer sales• Improve collective resource sharing among farmers• Expand access to market infrastructure• Promote long-term economic sustainability tied to market growth The language reflects a shift away from emissions tracking and carbon accounting — hallmarks of the Biden-era climate-smart framework — toward broader market access and farm profitability goals. Reporting requirements under review. Under the program, participating partners must:• Submit a progress report after the first quarter of implementation• Provide at least two progress reports per year thereafter  NRCS is now asking stakeholders to comment on whether the information collection is:• Necessary for the agency’s proper performance• Practically useful• Efficient and minimally burdensome• Structured clearly and effectively The agency is also seeking suggestions on how to improve the quality, clarity, and utility of the information collected. Broader policy context. The request comes amid a broader restructuring of climate-related agricultural initiatives. Since taking office, the Trump administration has scaled back or refocused several programs expanded under the Biden administration, placing greater emphasis on market development, trade competitiveness, and farm income stability rather than climate-centric objectives.For producers and project partners, the comment period represents an opportunity to influence how USDA measures performance — and how burdensome reporting requirements may be going forward. With a mid-April deadline, stakeholders have a limited window to weigh in on how the revamped initiative should operate administratively as its policy direction continues to evolve. — EPA Set to Finalize Repeal of 2009 Endangerment FindingZeldin calls move “largest deregulation in U.S. history,” legal challenges expected to follow The Environmental Protection Agency is expected this week to release its final rule reconsidering — and effectively repealing — the 2009 Endangerment Finding that underpins federal greenhouse gas regulations for vehicles. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin told the Wall Street Journal the action “amounts to the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States,” signaling the Trump administration’s most sweeping climate policy reversal to date. What’s at stake. The 2009 Endangerment Finding concluded that six greenhouse gases — including carbon dioxide and methane — pose a threat to public health and welfare. That determination became the legal foundation for regulating emissions from cars and light trucks, and later supported broader climate rules affecting multiple sectors. The final rule was submitted to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on Jan. 7 for interagency review. Since then, the administration has held or scheduled 31 meetings on the final rule alone, and 61 total when counting sessions tied to the proposed version. Several meetings are slated for this week, though historically not all scheduled OMB sessions ultimately occur. Scope and immediate impact. The repeal does not directly undo emissions rules for power plants or stationary industrial sources such as oil and gas facilities. However, removing the Endangerment Finding as it applies to vehicles could open the door to broader rollbacks of greenhouse gas standards in the auto sector. Because the Endangerment Finding serves as the legal predicate for vehicle climate regulations, repealing it would significantly weaken the federal government’s authority to regulate tailpipe emissions under the Clean Air Act. Legal fight ahead. Environmental organizations have already pledged to challenge the repeal in federal court. Any litigation could take years to resolve, potentially reaching appellate courts or even the Supreme Court before a final determination is made. In practical terms, even if the rule is finalized this week, the regulatory and legal uncertainty surrounding vehicle greenhouse gas standards is likely to persist well beyond the immediate announcement — setting up a prolonged clash over federal climate authority.