Iran War Oil Markets, Impacts Accelerate
Diesel price surge gets Washington’s attention | Senate GOP pushes more ag aid | Stagflation? | RFS Set 2 meetings build ahead of final EPA rule
| LINKS |
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Interview with USDA Deputy Stephen Vaden)
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Vaden interview)
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 11, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— War markets: Oil swung violently as Trump signaled the Iran war could end soon, but prices stayed elevated as Hormuz shipping slowed sharply and fighting intensified.
— Oil prices today resumed higher: Crude rebounded Wednesday as Iran threatened Gulf oil flows, Trump warned of a far harsher U.S. response, and the U.S. military said it struck Iranian mine-laying vessels near Hormuz.
— Trump administration weighs farm relief as Iran war pressures inputs: The administration is discussing possible aid for farmers as higher diesel and fertilizer costs add to already severe stress in farm country.
— Fuel shock hits supply chains: A diesel price spike is raising freight and manufacturing costs worldwide as the Iran conflict disrupts fuel markets and shipping lanes.
— RFS Set 2 meetings build ahead of final EPA rule: OMB meetings on EPA’s biofuels rule continue to mount as farm and refining groups press their cases on a rule with major demand implications for agriculture.
— Oil supply cuts in the Middle East are deepening: Regional outages tied to the Hormuz disruption have now removed roughly 6% of global oil output.
— Saudi reroute offers partial oil relief: Saudi Arabia is ramping up use of its East-West pipeline to bypass Hormuz, but the reroute can only soften — not solve — the supply disruption.
— IEA weighs record oil reserve release: The IEA is considering its biggest-ever coordinated strategic reserve release to calm war-driven oil markets.
— Dems divide on Iran war funding: Senate Democrats are split over a likely emergency war supplemental that could also become a vehicle for farm aid and year-round E15.
— China shipping fee pause looms large for Trump/Xi meeting: Extending the U.S./China suspension of Section 301 shipping fees is shaping up as a key ag competitiveness issue ahead of the Trump/Xi summit.
— Diesel spike adds new economic risk: Reuters reports diesel is emerging as one of the clearest inflation and growth threats from the Middle East war, with implications for freight, farming, and industry.
— Petrobras moves diesel sale amid shortages: Brazil’s Petrobras plans a diesel auction in the south as shortages and higher fuel costs begin hitting the farm sector.
— DOJ’s prior Section 122 stance undercuts Trump tariffs: Importers argue Trump’s fallback Section 122 tariffs rest on a legal theory DOJ itself rejected last year.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global stocks were mixed to lower ahead of CPI as investors weighed oil volatility, war risks, and hopes that cooler inflation could support tech-led gains.
— Equities yesterday: The Dow and S&P 500 fell Tuesday while the Nasdaq edged higher, helped by chip and tech strength.
— Stagflation risks move back into focus: The Sevens Report says markets are debating stagflation again, though current data still do not show a full-blown stagflationary environment.
— Oracle shares jump after earnings beat and cloud growth surge: Oracle rallied after topping estimates, posting strong cloud growth, and lifting its longer-term revenue outlook.
— Home sales rebound as mortgage rates briefly dip below 6%: Existing-home sales unexpectedly rose in February, though the recovery remains vulnerable to renewed rate increases.
— Tillis holds firm against Warsh as Fed fight deepens: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is still blocking Kevin Warsh’s path over concerns tied to the DOJ probe of Jerome Powell and Fed independence.
— Kansas Roundup liability bill heads to Senate hearing: Kansas held a hearing on Bayer-backed pesticide liability legislation, but no additional public action had been posted as of Tuesday night.
AG MARKETS
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Corn and wheat fell, soybeans and livestock gained, and cotton posted a solid increase.
FARM POLICY
— Senate panel looks to strengthen domestic demand as farm stress deepens: Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) used the hearing to argue that collapsing farm profitability and rising bankruptcies make stronger domestic demand an urgent complement to exports.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Wednesday: Oil rebounds as war risk overpowers reserve-release talk: Crude moved sharply higher again as traders focused on supply threats in Hormuz rather than possible policy intervention.
— Tuesday: Oil sinks as hopes rise for Iran de-escalation: Oil posted its steepest one-day drop since 2022 after Trump suggested the conflict might end soon and markets saw possible relief options.
— Yergin warns Gulf energy recovery could take weeks or months: Daniel Yergin said even a short war could leave oil and LNG markets tight for an extended period because restoring output and flows will take time.
— Reliance backs Texas refinery push: Trump said Reliance will support a Brownsville refinery project, giving the White House a long-term energy-security talking point but no near-term fuel fix.
TRADE POLICY
— Democrats target Section 122: Senate Democrats are moving to repeal the trade authority Trump used to revive broad tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier duties.
CHINA
— China builds an oil buffer as Middle East risks rise: China’s aggressive early-2026 crude buying now looks like a strategic hedge against Gulf supply disruptions.
CONGRESS
— Johnson floats reconciliation package to target fraud in Democratic-led states: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) suggested Republicans could pursue another reconciliation bill focused on alleged fraud and misuse of federal funds.
— Arrington pushes reconciliation sequel, but doubts remain: House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) is laying groundwork for a second reconciliation package, though GOP leaders remain skeptical it can pass.
— Senate moves housing bill forward: A bipartisan housing bill cleared a major Senate hurdle, but its House path and Trump’s stance remain uncertain.
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Georgia 14 runoff set: Democrat Shawn Harris and Trump-backed Republican Clay Fuller advanced to an April 7 runoff, with Republicans still favored in the deep-red district.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
— Shutdown-strained TSA lines snarl spring travel: A partial funding lapse is lengthening airport security waits, with travelers urged to arrive much earlier and rely on airport-specific updates.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Storms and flash-flood risks will spread east, wintry weather will hit parts of the North, the Northwest stays active, and eastern U.S. heat should ease after Wednesday.
TOP STORIES—War markets: Oil tumbled Tuesday after President Donald Trump sought to calm markets by saying the Iran war will end soon. Brent and West Texas Intermediate both tumbled more than 10% before clawing back some losses, following a dramatic session on Monday that saw extreme price swings. The drop moderated after Energy Secretary Chris Wright deleted a social media post claiming that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The White House said the navy has not escorted any tankers through the strait. CNN reported that Iran began laying mines in Strait of Hormuz. Iran said it carried out its “most intense and heaviest operation” since the war began, targeting Israel and Gulf states, according to state media. The escalation came as Israel launched another round of strikes in Tehran and, late Tuesday, said it was also hitting a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon. Oil and natural gas prices remained elevated as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway south of Iran that carries about 20% of the world’s oil — slowed to a near standstill. CNN, citing sources, reported that Iran has begun placing mines in the channel. The U.S. military said Tuesday it destroyed multiple Iranian naval vessels near the strait, including 16 mine-laying ships. — Oil prices today resumed higher — see Energy section below.Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose above $92 a barrel today. That’s well below Monday’s high, but significantly above where it closed before U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran began. On Tuesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that Tehran “will not allow the export of even a single liter of oil from the region to the hostile side and its partners until further notice,” adding that “we are the ones who will determine the end of the war.” In response, President Donald Trump warned that “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.” Trump said Tuesday in a social media post that the U.S. had “completely destroyed” 10 inactive Iranian mine-laying vessels and there would be “more to follow.” The announcement came after two other social media postings by the president in which he said he has no reports of Iran putting explosive mines in the strategic waterway. More info: the U.S. military said Tuesday that its forces had attacked 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near a major oil route. The U.S. Central Command said on social media Tuesday evening that it had struck the vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. A video accompanying the post showed munitions hitting nine vessels, most of which were moored at the time of the attack. —Trump administration weighs farm relief as Iran war pressures inputsBrooke Rollins says Cabinet-level talks are underway as lawmakers warn rising diesel and fertilizer costs could deepen stress across farm country The Trump administration is weighing possible support measures for farmers and ranchers as the U.S.-Israel war against Iran disrupts energy and fertilizer flows and raises new concerns about already-thin farm margins. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Tuesday that senior officials are discussing what steps could be taken to ease the hit from higher input costs, though she stopped short of outlining a specific package. Her comments come as the Strait of Hormuz remains a major chokepoint for fuel and fertilizer trade, threatening to push costs higher during a critical stretch for U.S. producers. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told Politico the administration is focused on limiting spikes in fertilizer and fuel prices, including through more domestic energy output and efforts to expand fertilizer production at home. He also stressed the White House wants the conflict to remain short-lived so any jump in energy prices fades quickly. That view aligns with broader administration messaging that the economic hit to farm country will be temporary, even as anxiety grows in rural states over whether the conflict will drag into planting and summer application season. Republican senators said they are hearing increasingly urgent warnings from producers. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) pointed to a sharp recent jump in diesel and gasoline prices, underscoring how vulnerable farmers are to higher fuel costs during spring fieldwork. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) suggested the pressure could revive calls for supplemental bridge assistance to help farmers absorb immediate upfront expenses. Those concerns are grounded in broader market strains: Reuters has reported that diesel markets have tightened sharply as the Middle East conflict disrupts trade flows, adding to inflation pressure across freight, agriculture, and industry. Not all Republicans see a prolonged threat. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) characterized the disruption as a temporary shock and argued strong U.S. oil production should help cushion the blow within weeks, while also pointing to structural input-cost problems beyond the conflict itself. Democrats, meanwhile, are using the episode to argue that the war is worsening an already fragile farm economy. Senate Ag Committee ranking member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said producers were already grappling with high input costs and damaging tariff fallout before the latest Middle East escalation added another layer of uncertainty. The bigger picture for agriculture is that this is landing at a moment of exceptional financial stress. Fertilizer markets were already tight, and the Iran war was threatening supplies ahead of the Northern Hemisphere planting season, with the Strait of Hormuz handling roughly a third of global fertilizer trade. That means even a short disruption can quickly ripple into higher costs for nutrients, diesel, freight, and eventually crop margins. For now, the administration appears to be keeping its options open — balancing confidence that the shock will prove temporary with growing pressure from lawmakers to show farmers that help will be available if the conflict keeps input prices elevated. —Fuel shock hits supply chainsDiesel spike raises shipping costs as Iran war disrupts global fuel markets and squeezes U.S. manufacturers A sharp jump in diesel prices is emerging as one of the clearest supply-chain consequences of the Iran war, threatening higher transportation costs for retailers, manufacturers and shippers already contending with tariffs and broader trade uncertainty. U.S. diesel prices for truckers surged a record 25% in the past week, and most large carriers are expected to pass those costs along through fuel surcharges, raising the prospect of another round of inflation pressure across goods movement. The fuel shock is spreading well beyond trucking. European jet fuel prices had risen 80% by March 6, according to Clarksons Research, while bunker fuel in Singapore more than doubled over the past month, underscoring the broader disruption hitting air cargo and ocean shipping. Analysts at TD Cowen say importers and exporters are likely to absorb much of the fallout through higher fees, surcharges and delays as conflict upends key logistics corridors. The war has also thrown global freight networks off balance by choking Middle Eastern air hubs that handle a significant share of cargo between Asia, Europe, Africa and the U.S., while also disrupting container deployments and effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz for most traffic. That closure has deepened concerns about both energy supply and freight reliability. Meanwhile, Iranian oil exports appear to be continuing through the strait, highlighting Tehran’s grip on the waterway. Since the war began on Feb. 28, seven tankers have loaded oil off Iran’s coast, with shipments averaging 2.1 million barrels a day over the past six days — slightly above February’s export pace. The result is a volatile and uneven energy market that is sending fresh cost pressures through global shipping and manufacturing. —RFS Set 2 meetings build ahead of final EPA ruleMore OMB sessions are on the calendar as biofuels groups and small refiners press their case on a rule that could significantly shape farm-sector demand Meetings at the Office of Management and Budget on EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard Set 2 final rule continue, with the total now at 16. Small Refineries of America is scheduled to meet with OMB on March 11, while the Sustainable Advanced Biofuel Refiners Coalition is set for its session on March 18. That compares with 18 meetings held on the proposed rule and the supplemental proposal covering the reallocation of obligations waived through small refinery exemptions. The final rule is being closely watched because of its potential to significantly influence demand for agricultural commodities. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden, speaking on the Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives podcast, said EPA’s proposal was unusually favorable to biofuels. “With regard to the renewable volume obligation (RVO), our friends at the EPA have been hard at work,” Vaden said. “The proposal that they put out for comment is in my view the most pro-biofuels rule any administration of any party has put out.” He added that, based on his understanding of where the rule is headed, the final numbers could be welcomed across farm country. “I think when that rule is finalized, based on my understanding of where they have ended up, farmers will rejoice because we will have numbers that we can celebrate.” —Oil supply cuts in the Middle East are deepening, shaving about 6% off global output, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz piles more pressure on producers with every day the Iran war goes on.  —Saudi reroute offers partial oil reliefAramco says its East-West pipeline is nearing full use, giving Saudi Arabia a bigger outlet to the Red Sea as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked Saudi Arabia is moving closer to its main fallback plan for keeping crude flowing during the Iran war, with Aramco CEO Amin Nasser saying the kingdom’s East-West pipeline should reach full capacity within days. The line allows crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz by moving barrels from eastern Saudi fields to the Red Sea export hub at Yanbu — a critical workaround as shippers avoid the Gulf chokepoint. The shift matters because Hormuz normally handles roughly a fifth of global oil transit, including most Saudi exports to Asia and Europe. Aramco’s pipeline network can move about 7 million barrels a day to the Red Sea, but only around 5 million barrels a day of that is available for crude exports, meaning it can ease the disruption without fully replacing normal Gulf flows. Saudi Red Sea shipments are already climbing sharply, with loadings from Yanbu averaging about 2.2 million barrels a day in early March, up from 1.1 million in February, and March exports through the Red Sea are on track for a record. That is why the pipeline is being viewed as a pressure valve rather than a solution. Even at full use, it cannot absorb all of Saudi Arabia’s normal export volumes, much less offset wider regional losses from Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and others facing the same Hormuz bottleneck. Reuters reported that Aramco is using global storage and redirecting supply to meet most customer demand, but Nasser warned the market impact would be severe if the disruption drags on, calling the crisis the most serious the region’s oil and gas sector has faced. Markets reflected that mixed picture Tuesday. Oil prices retreated after the previous session’s spike, as traders weighed the possibility of some rerouted supply and signs the conflict might not escalate further. But the underlying message from Aramco was that the world remains far from normal: the Saudi workaround can cushion the blow, not remove it.—IEA weighs record oil reserve releaseWSJ exclusive says the IEA is proposing its largest-ever coordinated strategic oil release as member countries prepare to decide Wednesday on a move aimed at calming war-driven energy markets In a Wall Street Journal exclusive, officials familiar with the matter said the International Energy Agency has proposed the largest strategic oil release in its history, surpassing the 182 million barrels deployed in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The plan, circulated during an emergency meeting Tuesday, is intended to offset severe supply disruptions tied to the near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. IEA member countries are expected to decide Wednesday whether to move forward, though a single objection could delay the release. The proposal reflects mounting concern that disrupted Gulf shipments and surging fuel costs — especially diesel — could deepen inflationary pressures, rattle financial markets, and intensify economic strain even after crude prices pulled back from recent highs. —Dems divide on Iran war fundingA looming emergency supplemental is shaping into both a test of congressional war powers and a possible vehicle for broader GOP priorities, including farm aid and year-round E15 Senate Democrats are split over an expected Trump administration request for roughly $50 billion in emergency funding for the war in Iran, underscoring the party’s broader struggle over whether approving new money would amount to tacit endorsement of military action launched without explicit congressional authorization. The debate is sharpening as Republican leaders signal that a supplemental package is likely, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) calling additional war funding “inevitable.” Senate Republicans appear broadly supportive, but Democrats are divided between those who want to ensure U.S. troops are protected and those who argue Congress should not reward an open-ended conflict absent a clearly defined strategy. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) sharply criticized the cost of the campaign, arguing the administration is spending vast sums on a war with unclear objectives while domestic needs go unmet. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) left the door open to a package only if the White House can clearly explain its endgame, while Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) was more direct in opposing any supplemental. Other Democrats have also questioned why the Pentagon needs more money so soon after Republicans approved roughly $150 billion in new defense funding in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act. The politics are complicated further by mounting scrutiny of the administration’s conduct of the war, including civilian casualty concerns and uncertainty over whether the White House is pursuing regime change. That has made it harder for Democrats to support a funding bill, even as some acknowledge the Pentagon may seek additional resources to protect U.S. forces and sustain operations. Meanwhile, any emergency package could become a broader legislative vehicle for other Trump administration and Republican priorities. If Congress moves a supplemental, lawmakers could try to attach additional U.S. farmer aid amid worsening rural financial stress, and GOP allies of biofuels could also push to codify nationwide year-round E15 sales as part of a larger energy-security and domestic-fuels response to the Iran conflict. In that sense, the fight is no longer just about war funding. It is becoming a wider test of whether Congress will use an Iran supplemental to reassert its constitutional role — or turn it into a catchall package blending defense, energy and farm-state priorities.  —China shipping fee pause looms large for Trump/Xi meeting Extending the U.S./China suspension of Section 301 shipping fees should be a priority at the summit, with farm groups watching the November deadline as Brazil keeps its price edge in key export markets A key trade issue hanging over the next Trump/Xi summit (March 31-April 2 in Beijing) is the one-year suspension of the Section 301 shipping and port fees the U.S. imposed on Chinese-linked vessels, along with China’s retaliatory measures on U.S.-linked ships. Washington and Beijing agreed in late October 2025 to pause those dueling fees for 12 months, and the Trump administration formally began that pause on Nov. 10, 2025, as part of a broader effort to ease trade tensions and open negotiations over China’s dominance in shipbuilding and ocean logistics. Unless extended, that truce runs out in November 2026. That deadline matters well beyond the shipping sector. A snapback in U.S. port fees and Chinese retaliation would raise freight uncertainty and transport costs just as U.S. exporters are trying to preserve access to the China market. The White House said China also agreed to suspend tariffs on a broad swath of U.S. agricultural products through Dec. 31, 2026, while extending its market-based tariff exclusion process for U.S. imports until Nov. 10, 2026. Together, those dates create a narrow but important negotiating window for the summit: lock in an extension now, or risk another round of trade friction heading into the 2026 marketing cycle. For U.S. agriculture, the stakes are especially high because Brazil still holds a strong competitive position in China. Reuters has reported that China is expected to favor Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026 because of record production and lower prices, and traders said U.S. soybeans were trading at a steep premium to Brazilian cargoes. Without tariff leverage, U.S. soybeans would struggle to compete with Brazil’s cheaper supplies. That is why any Trump – Xi summit focused on trade and shipping should also address an extension of the November 2026 suspension. From an ag perspective, this is not just a maritime policy question — it is a competitiveness question. If the current pause lapses, higher shipping costs and renewed retaliation could again tilt Chinese demand toward Brazil, reinforcing a shift in market share that U.S. farmers have already been struggling to reverse.—Diesel spike adds new economic riskReuters reports that surging diesel prices are emerging as one of the clearest economic pressure points from the Middle East war, raising risks for freight, farming, industry and broader inflation Diesel prices are climbing faster than crude oil and gasoline as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran disrupts one of the world’s most important fuel chokepoints, threatening to ripple across the global economy. Reuters reported that traders and analysts increasingly see diesel as the petroleum product most exposed to prolonged turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, where a significant share of global seaborne diesel and other refined fuels normally passes. That matters because diesel is deeply embedded in economic activity. It powers trucks, farm machinery, mining equipment, construction and industrial transport, making it a more immediate barometer of real-world economic strain than gasoline. As one market participant told Reuters, diesel is the “most macro-sensitive barrel in the system” because it underpins freight, agriculture, mining and manufacturing all at once. The market had already been tight before the latest war-driven disruption. Diesel supplies have been constrained for years by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and by Western sanctions that reshaped Moscow’s export flows. The conflict with Iran has added a new layer of risk by threatening shipments through Hormuz and limiting access to the distillate-rich crude streams most suitable for diesel production. Analysts say the supply hit could be substantial. Estimates cited by Reuters suggest disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz could affect 3 million to 4 million barrels per day of diesel-related supply, with additional losses from blocked exports out of Middle Eastern refineries. That helps explain why U.S. diesel futures have surged far more sharply than crude since late February, with similar price jumps also seen in Singapore and in Europe’s Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub. The economic danger is not just higher fuel bills. A sustained diesel shock would raise transport costs across supply chains, pushing up the cost of moving goods, food and industrial inputs. That could feed directly into consumer prices and create a new round of cost-push inflation just as many economies are still trying to stabilize growth. Several analysts cited by Reuters warned that elevated diesel and jet fuel prices would eventually lead to demand destruction and slower economic activity. Agriculture could be hit especially quickly. Higher diesel prices raise the cost of spring fieldwork, trucking and grain movement, creating another burden for farmers already contending with tight margins. In that sense, the fuel spike is not just an energy story but a food inflation story as well. The jump in margins underscores how severe the squeeze has become. In Asia, diesel refining margins have climbed sharply from prewar levels, while in Europe — now more reliant on Middle Eastern barrels after reducing dependence on Russian supply — spot prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel have leapt. Refiners are benefiting from unusually strong margins, but the broader global economy is not. If the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for an extended period, diesel could become one of the clearest channels through which the war slows growth and intensifies inflation pressure worldwide.—Petrobras moves diesel sale amid shortagesAuction in southern Brazil signals mounting fuel strain for farmers as Iran-related market turmoil drives up diesel costs. Petrobras plans to auction 20 million liters of diesel in Rio Grande do Sul today as shortages emerge in southern Brazil, according to Reuters. The move appears aimed at easing supply concerns and calming the market after the company reportedly held back extra diesel sales to distributors. The diesel squeeze is becoming one of the first direct hits to Brazil’s farm economy from the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. Higher fuel costs are raising pressure on producers already working through a record soybean harvest and trying to plant corn on time. One source told Reuters the auction structure would let Petrobras sell some fuel at higher prices, helping narrow the gap between its domestic prices and international benchmarks while reducing the risk that distributors buy discounted diesel simply to store it and profit from later price increases. —DOJ’s prior Section 122 stance undercuts Trump tariffsImporters argue the administration is now using the same legal theory Justice Department lawyers said last year did not fit Section 122 Two importers — Burlap & Barrel and Basic Fun — have sued in the Court of International Trade (CIT), arguing President Trump’s 10 percent Section 122 tariffs are unlawful because the statute only allows temporary tariffs to address a “large and serious” U.S. balance-of-payments deficit, not a broader trade deficit. Their case adds to a similar lawsuit already brought by a coalition of Democratic-led states. What makes this complaint especially notable is the importers’ claim that the Justice Department effectively conceded this point in prior litigation defending Trump’s now-struck-down IEEPA tariffs. According to the suit, DOJ told federal appeals courts last year that Section 122 was not an appropriate substitute because the administration’s concerns involved trade deficits, which are legally and economically distinct from balance-of-payments deficits. The importers argue Trump did exactly what DOJ had said he could not do after the Supreme Court blocked his emergency tariff authority. The complaint also contends the administration is trying to relabel the same trade-deficit rationale from its earlier tariff program as a balance-of-payments problem. The plaintiffs say that approach ignores how the balance of payments is actually measured, since the trade gap is only one component of a broader system that also includes offsetting capital and financial inflows. In their telling, once those broader flows are counted, the alleged imbalance largely disappears. The suit says the remaining discrepancy is too small — about 0.2% of GDP — to qualify as the kind of “large and serious” problem Section 122 was designed to address. The importers further argue Congress knew the difference between trade deficits and balance-of-payments deficits when it wrote the Trade Act of 1974. They say the statute explicitly distinguishes between those concepts and does not authorize the president to raise tariffs simply because the U.S. runs a trade deficit. The case is important because Section 122 has become the administration’s fallback after the Supreme Court overturned Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on Feb. 20. Trump imposed the 10% Section 122 duties the same day and has said he may raise them to 15% while the administration pursues country-specific Section 301 investigations. Both Section 122 lawsuits will be heard by the same three-judge CIT panel. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets fell as mixed signals surrounding the U.S./Israeli war with Iran kept investors on edge about the outlook for inflation and global growth.
In Asia, Japan +1.4%. Hong Kong -0.2%. China +0.3%. India -1.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -1%.
Wall Street futures also pointed lower ahead of a closely watched February U.S. inflation report, as rising tensions in the Middle East lifted energy prices. Wednesday’s trade is looking like a tug-of-war between falling energy prices and tech-led optimism on one side, and inflation uncertainty on the other. If the CPI comes in cooler than feared, Oracle’s results (see below) could help pull the Nasdaq and broader growth trade higher; if inflation surprises hot, the market may fade even strong stock-specific earnings reactions.
February’s Consumer Price Index report, due this morning, is expected to show that headline inflation continued to climb, while core inflation — which excludes food and energy — held steady at 2.5% from a year earlier. But the data will not capture the impact of the Middle East war, which has driven energy prices higher and could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans to cut interest rates this year.
—Equities yesterday: The Dow and S&P 500 finished lower Tuesday, giving back earlier gains fueled by hopes the war with Iran could end quickly. The Nasdaq Composite managed a slight gain, supported by strength in technology stocks — particularly chipmakers — with Nvidia rising more than 1% by the closing bell.
| Equity Index | Closing Price March 10 | Point Difference from March 9 | % Difference from March 9 |
| Dow | 47,706.51 | -34.29 | -0.07% |
| Nasdaq | 22,697.10 | +1.16 | +0.01% |
| S&P 500 | 6,781.48 | -14.51 | -0.21% |
—Stagflation risks move back into focus
The Sevens Report says investors are increasingly debating whether a mix of softer growth and sticky inflation could become a more serious market problem, though it argues the evidence is not yet strong enough to conclude stagflation is taking hold
The Sevens Report says stagflation fears have picked up over the past week as investors weigh two developments at once: signs of potential labor-market softening and renewed inflation pressure tied to the U.S.-Iran war and volatile oil prices. The report notes that stagflation — defined as stagnant growth paired with high inflation — is especially damaging for markets because it can pressure both stocks and bonds at the same time.
According to the Sevens Report, the recent concern stems partly from a weak monthly jobs report, which posted the biggest decline in years, raising questions about whether the labor market could be starting to roll over. At the same time, inflation has stopped making the steady progress seen earlier, with CPI having rebounded from last year’s low and the Fed’s preferred Core PCE measure recently climbing to 3.0% year over year. With oil prices having surged amid Middle East tensions, the report says investors are increasingly worried that energy could add another layer of inflation pressure in coming months.
Still, the Sevens Report argues those worries are premature. It says broader inflation data remain relatively stable, pointing out that headline CPI is still near 2.4% and core CPI near 2.5%, while higher energy prices are typically viewed as temporary unless they persist long enough to filter through transportation and other underlying costs. On growth, the report says the disappointing jobs number stands out, but other indicators — including ISM surveys, retail sales, productivity data, corporate commentary, and jobless claims — continue to suggest the economy is still expanding at a solid pace.
The bottom line from the Sevens Report is that stagflation risk cannot be dismissed while oil markets remain disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz remains under stress, but the data do not yet justify moving stagflation to the top of investors’ worry list. For now, the report’s message is that markets should keep watching inflation and growth closely, while resisting the urge to assume the economy is headed for a 1970s-style replay.
—Oracle shares jump after earnings beat and cloud growth surge
Company raises long-term revenue outlook as AI-driven cloud demand accelerates
Oracle shares rose about 7–8% in after-hours trading after the company reported quarterly results that topped expectations and increased its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast.
The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share on $17.19 billion in revenue, beating estimates of $1.70 per share and $16.91 billion in revenue. Total revenue rose 22% year over year, while cloud revenue climbed 44% to $8.9 billion, including 84% growth in cloud infrastructure tied to rising AI demand.
Oracle now expects $90 billion in fiscal 2027 revenue, above the roughly $86.6 billion analysts anticipated. To support growth, the company plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year to expand cloud infrastructure capacity.
The results helped lift shares after a difficult stretch in which Oracle stock had fallen more than 50% from its September highs amid concerns about the costs of its AI expansion.
—Home sales rebound as mortgage rates briefly dip below 6%
February existing-home sales rise unexpectedly as improved affordability brings buyers back to the market
U.S. existing-home sales increased in February, rebounding from a sharp January decline as lower mortgage rates encouraged more buyers to enter the market ahead of the spring selling season.
Sales rose 1.7% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 1.3% decline, making the increase a surprise for the market.
The rebound was largely driven by a temporary drop in borrowing costs. Mortgage rates fell below 6% in late February for the first time since 2022, improving affordability and drawing prospective buyers back into the market.
Quote of note: Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said the improvement reflects stronger buyer interest heading into the peak home-buying season. “The increase was driven by continuing improvement in affordability. During the spring home-buying season, we do have more buyers kicking the tires, visiting open houses.”
However, the outlook remains uncertain. Mortgage rates have already climbed back above 6% since the start of the Iran war, raising concerns that higher borrowing costs could slow the housing recovery.
Home prices remain elevated despite slower appreciation. The median existing-home price rose to $398,000 in February, up 0.3% from a year earlier, reflecting continued tight supply.
Inventory conditions are gradually improving. The number of homes for sale rose 2.4% from January and 4.9% from a year earlier, giving buyers more negotiating power. Homes also stayed on the market longer — 47 days on average compared with 42 days a year ago.
Regionally, sales increased in the Midwest, South and West, but declined in the Northeast, where severe winter weather limited activity. In some markets — particularly parts of the South and West where listings have increased — prices are beginning to soften. Buyers are gaining leverage, with more opportunities to negotiate concessions such as closing costs or down-payment assistance.
Overall, the February data suggest the housing market is stabilizing but remains highly sensitive to interest-rate swings and broader economic uncertainty.
—Tillis holds firm against Warsh as Fed fight deepens
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is holding up Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination, tying the fight to the DOJ’s Powell probe and concerns over central bank independence
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Kevin Warsh failed to change his mind Tuesday, leaving President Donald Trump’s Fed chair nominee stuck behind a Republican blockade tied to the Justice Department’s investigation of Jerome Powell and broader concerns over central bank independence.
Warsh met with Tillis on Capitol Hill as he begins the customary round of Senate meetings ahead of a confirmation hearing, but Tillis said afterward that he still will not allow Fed nominations to move through the Senate Banking Committee until the DOJ finishes its probe into Powell’s testimony about Federal Reserve building renovations. Tillis stressed that his objection is not personal to Warsh, whom he has praised as qualified, but rather reflects his concern that the Fed must not appear subordinate to the White House.
That stance gives Tillis outsized leverage. With Republicans holding only a narrow margin on the Senate Banking Committee, Warsh may not have the votes to advance without Tillis’s support, even if the confirmation process itself formally begins. Tillis has warned that markets could react badly if investors conclude the Fed chair serves “at the pleasure of the president,” underscoring that this fight is as much about institutional independence as it is about the nominee.
The timing adds pressure. Trump formally sent Warsh’s nomination to the Senate on March 4, and Powell’s term as chair is set to end May 15, leaving open the possibility that the nomination battle could stretch dangerously close to — or beyond — that deadline.
—Kansas Roundup liability bill heads to Senate hearing
As of Tuesday evening, Kansas had not publicly posted further action beyond the Senate committee hearing on Bayer-backed HB 2476
Kansas lawmakers took up a Bayer-backed pesticide liability bill Tuesday as the company presses a state-by-state strategy to curb future Roundup cancer lawsuits while it pursues a proposed $7.25 billion settlement covering most of roughly 65,000 remaining claims. Reuters reported the Kansas measure would bar failure-to-warn suits when pesticide labels comply with federal requirements, a change Bayer says is needed to protect access to glyphosate-based products, but critics argue would shield manufacturers from accountability.
The Kansas bill is HB 2476, which says federal pesticide warning or labeling requirements would satisfy any state warning requirement. The bill already passed the House on Jan. 29 by an 81-36 vote and was scheduled for a Senate Ag and Natural Resources Committee hearing on Tuesday, March 10.
As of Tuesday evening, the Kansas Legislature site showed both chambers adjourned until Wednesday and HB 2476’s posted history still reflected only the March 10 Senate hearing notice, with no additional committee vote or floor action yet listed. That suggests no further public action had been posted Tuesday by the time the legislature page was rendered.
The broader fight is part of Bayer’s national push to limit Roundup exposure after years of litigation tied to glyphosate. Reuters says similar bills have already passed in North Dakota and Georgia, while Bayer is also awaiting an April Supreme Court argument over whether it had a duty to warn users that glyphosate could cause cancer. At the same time, opponents — including some aligned with the MAHA movement — have criticized both the Kansas bill and the Trump administration’s recent executive order encouraging more domestic glyphosate production.
| AG MARKETS |
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract month | Closing price on March 10 | Difference from March 9 |
| Corn | May | $4.52 1/4 | -1 1/2 cents |
| Soybeans | May | $12.01 3/4 | +5 1/2 cents |
| Soybean meal | May | $314.50 | +$1.00 |
| Soybean oil | May | 65.62 | -48 points |
| SRW wheat | May | $5.91 | -12 1/4 cents |
| HRW wheat | May | $6.08 3/4 | -11 cents |
| Spring wheat | May | $6.35 | -11 cents |
| Cotton | May | 65.30 cents | +68 points |
| Live cattle | April | $232.375 | +$2.225 |
| Feeder cattle | March | $353.35 | +$2.70 |
| Lean hogs | April | $96.075 | +$1.25 |
| FARM POLICY |
—Senate panel looks to strengthen domestic demand as farm stress deepens
Chairman John Boozman said collapsing row-crop profitability, rising bankruptcies, and mounting trade uncertainty are forcing Congress to consider how stronger domestic markets can help stabilize U.S. agriculture.
The Senate Ag Committee’s March 10 hearing on increasing domestic consumption of U.S.-grown agricultural products unfolded against what Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) described as an acute farm financial crisis. Boozman said that for row-crop producers, “if you are putting something in the ground, you are losing money,” arguing that no row crop is currently profitable regardless of region. He pointed to Arkansas’ recent experience as especially severe, saying the last three years have been “absolutely harrowing” and noting that the state now leads the nation in Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies.
Boozman said those conditions underscore the need for near-term relief as well as a longer-term strategy. He reaffirmed his commitment, alongside Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), to pursue additional financial assistance for farmers by lengthening and widening the Farmer Bridge Assistance program President Donald Trump announced in December. But he also made clear that emergency aid alone will not solve the underlying problem.
He said the combination of high input costs, high labor costs, high interest rates, low commodity prices, and significant trade headwinds should force policymakers to think more seriously about the future shape of U.S. agriculture. Boozman argued that export markets remain essential, but recent experience has exposed the risks of overreliance on foreign buyers. He said China is not a dependable trading partner and accused Brazil of aggressively trying to capture agricultural markets long dominated by the United States.
While praising the Trump administration for pursuing new markets and holding trading partners accountable, Boozman said agricultural trade must remain a top priority because expanding market access and developing new partners is crucial to the health of rural America. At the same time, he said the uncertainty tied to foreign governments and external markets has strengthened the case for building more robust domestic demand.
That broader theme shaped the hearing. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall told senators that USDA projects farm income this year will be down nearly $50 billion from levels seen just a few years ago, and said agriculture needs stronger domestic demand, restored domestic processing, and increased production of critical agricultural supplies. Link to testimony.
Much of the witness testimony focused on specific demand channels.
National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower said year-round E15 remains a critical step for expanding ethanol demand and broader use of bio-based products. Link to testimony.
Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa), who co-chairs the House working group that’s responsible for coming up with an E15 deal, keeps saying that bill text is coming “shortly.” The Rural Domestic Energy Council was created to appease E15 supporters in Congress who were frustrated that a deal to include E15 was excluded from January’s funding bills. “We were there in February until some refineries wanted to get their hands in the cookie jar,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said during the hearing.
American Soybean Association President Scott Metzger said soybeans need a larger role in both fuel markets and U.S. food systems, emphasizing soy oil’s place as an affordable, heart-healthy ingredient for cooking and packaged foods. Link to testimony.
Other witnesses pointed to local and consumer-facing markets. Matt Perdue of the National Farmers Union said stronger local and regional supply chains can help farmers and ranchers expand markets and improve profit margins, citing the Local Food Purchase Assistance program and the Local Food for Schools program. Link to testimony.
International Fresh Produce Association CEO Cathy Burns said 90% of Americans fall short of recommended fruit and vegetable intake, arguing that stronger produce consumption would improve public health while creating new economic opportunity for growers. Link to testimony.
Cotton leaders made the case for more targeted action. National Cotton Council Chairman Nathan Reed said cotton has seen no consistent demand growth over the past two decades even as man-made fiber consumption has more than doubled, with low-cost Chinese polyester posing a major competitive challenge. He also pointed to the Buying American Cotton Act to encourage greater use of U.S. cotton and support domestic textile demand. Link to testimony.
Taken together, the hearing showed that Boozman is trying to frame domestic demand not as a substitute for trade, but as a necessary complement to it. His message was that U.S. agriculture still needs export growth, but it also needs stronger and more reliable markets at home so producers are less exposed to foreign disruptions and prolonged periods of weak profitability.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Wednesday: Oil rebounds as war risk overpowers reserve-release talk
WTI climbed back toward $89 a barrel Wednesday as traders refocused on Middle East supply threats, while a mooted emergency stockpile release and pending OPEC market outlook did little to calm nerves
U.S. crude prices rebounded sharply on Wednesday, with WTI reversing early weakness after Tuesday’s nearly 12% plunge, as the market again priced in the risk of a prolonged supply shock tied to the Iran conflict and the effective disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, rose 5% to $92.47 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 5.8% to $88.27 early in the day.
Reuters reported that oil had regained ground even after the prior day’s selloff, as traders remained skeptical that policy intervention alone could offset a large Gulf supply outage. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would be the campaign’s most intense day of strikes so far, reinforcing concern that the conflict may not wind down quickly.
The relief rally sparked by reports of a possible International Energy Agency emergency release proved fleeting. Reuters, citing sources after an initial Wall Street Journal report, said the IEA is considering an unprecedented coordinated stockpile draw, while G7 countries have signaled support in principle for using reserves if needed. But the market response has been restrained because no final volumes, timing, or country-by-country commitments have been announced, leaving traders focused instead on real-time supply losses and shipping risk. OPEC is also due to publish its March Monthly Oil Market Report on Wednesday, giving investors another closely watched read on demand, supply, and market balance.
A cargo ship in the strait was hit by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board and the evacuation of crew, the UK’s maritime security agency, UKMTO, said early Wednesday.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would not allow a single liter of oil to pass through the strait.
—Tuesday: Oil sinks as hopes rise for Iran de-escalation
Crude posts its biggest one-day drop since March 2022 as traders bet shipping disruptions may ease, and emergency supply options remain on the table
Oil prices tumbled Tuesday, reversing a portion of the previous session’s sharp war-driven rally, as markets responded to signs that the conflict with Iran may not severely disrupt global supplies for long.
Brent crude settled at $87.80 a barrel, down $11.16, or 11%.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $11.32, 11.9%, to $83.45 — the steepest single-day percentage decline for both benchmarks since March 2022.
The selloff followed comments from President Donald Trump suggesting the war could end quickly, calming fears of a prolonged supply shock. Losses deepened after the U.S. Energy Secretary said the military had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, a signal that shipments through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints may continue.
The retreat was also driven by reports that the Trump administration is weighing additional steps to stabilize markets, including possible sanctions relief for Russian oil and a coordinated release of crude from strategic reserves with G7 allies. Those developments helped ease concerns that a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz — which normally handles about 20% of global oil supply — would choke off major volumes.
Still, analysts caution that the supply picture remains fragile. About 1.9 million barrels per day of Gulf refining capacity is still offline, and even if the conflict winds down soon, restarting production and infrastructure across the region could take weeks (see next item).
—Yergin warns Gulf energy recovery could take weeks or months
Even a short Iran conflict may leave oil and LNG markets strained, with blocked shipping, offline production, and lingering risks to global prices and economic stability
Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, said the oil market shock tied to the Iran war represents an extraordinary disruption, with the scale of threatened supply exceeding past energy crises if it persists. While crude prices fell after President Donald Trump suggested the conflict could end soon, Yergin cautioned that restoring Gulf energy production would not happen quickly. Barron’s spoke with Yergin about the oil situation. Link.
He said only about 20% of shut-in production could return within days, while another 50% to 60% may take weeks or months depending on reservoir conditions and how facilities were idled. That means even a short war could leave global energy markets tight well after fighting stops.
Yergin emphasized that the threat extends beyond crude oil. Roughly 20% of global oil and 20% of global LNG normally move through the Strait of Hormuz, with Asia especially exposed to disruptions in Gulf supplies. He also warned that key infrastructure across the region — including industrial sites, desalination systems, and financial assets — remains vulnerable.
The result has already been sharp price spikes and higher transport costs. Yergin noted LNG prices have surged in both Asia and Europe, tanker rates have soared, and cargoes are being redirected toward higher-priced Asian markets. If the disruption is brief, markets could normalize in the following weeks, but a prolonged outage could push oil far higher, destabilize financial markets, and raise recession risks.
He added that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve would likely be tapped if gasoline prices keep climbing, and said one of the clearest lessons from the crisis is that energy security and national security are inseparable.
—Reliance backs Texas refinery push
Trump touts a Brownsville project as the first new U.S. oil refinery in nearly 50 years, tying it to energy security as the Iran war lifts fuel-price pressure
President Donald Trump said India’s Reliance Industries will help back a new refinery project in Brownsville, Texas, which he described as the first new U.S. refinery in almost half a century. The Financial Times reported that Trump framed the project as a major marker of renewed domestic refining investment, while Reuters said he publicly thanked Reliance for its role and cast the venture as part of a broader U.S. energy expansion drive.
The announcement lands at a moment when the war involving Iran has driven fresh concern about fuel supplies and refining margins, giving the White House a political opening to argue that more U.S. processing capacity is needed at home. Trump pitched the Brownsville refinery as a response to tighter energy markets and as a boost for South Texas jobs, energy security, and the ability to run more domestic shale crude through U.S. facilities.
The bigger significance is that new large-scale U.S. refinery construction has been rare for decades because of high costs, permitting hurdles, and long-term uncertainty over fuel demand. That is why Trump is presenting the Brownsville effort as a historic industrial win rather than just another energy investment. Reuters had previously reported that a Texas-based developer was already trying to advance a Brownsville-area refinery designed around lighter U.S. shale oil, underscoring how difficult such projects have been to finance and complete.
For markets, the project is more a signal of confidence than an immediate fix for high fuel prices. Even if it moves forward quickly, a refinery of this scale would take years to build, so it does not solve the current supply shock tied to Middle East tensions. But politically, it allows Trump to argue he is pairing short-term crisis management with a longer-term effort to expand U.S. refining capacity.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Democrats target Section 122
Senate bill would repeal the 1974 trade authority Trump used to revive broad-based tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier duties
Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) are preparing to introduce legislation to repeal Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, arguing the law is outdated and is being misused by President Donald Trump to sidestep Congress on trade.
The proposal, titled the Reclaim Trade Powers Act, would eliminate the statute that allows a president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days to respond to a “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficit. Kaine and other Democrats argue that authority was written for a very different monetary system — when the U.S. was still navigating the end of the gold standard — and no longer fits the modern era of floating exchange rates.
The push comes after Trump turned to Section 122 to impose new across-the-board 10% tariffs, with some exceptions, after the Supreme Court last month invalidated his earlier tariff regime under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Democrats say the administration is now relying on a largely dormant statute to continue pursuing universal tariffs without fresh congressional approval.
The bill has broad backing among Senate Democrats, including Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), as well as Angus King (I-Maine).
Supporters of the repeal effort argue Trump’s use of Section 122 stretches the law beyond its original purpose and ignores the constitutional role of Congress in setting trade policy. They also contend the tariffs are increasing costs for businesses and consumers, pointing to outside estimates that tariff burdens fall largely on domestic buyers and could add more than $1,000 in annual costs per household.
The measure also reflects a broader Democratic campaign against Trump’s latest tariff strategy. It follows a separate proposal led by Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) that would exempt small businesses from Section 122 duties, signaling that Democrats are pursuing both a full repeal track and narrower relief options as legal and political challenges to the tariffs mount.
| CHINA |
—China builds an oil buffer as Middle east risks rise
Beijing sharply increased crude imports at the start of 2026, expanding stockpiles ahead of a broader energy shock tied to war and shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf
China entered 2026 buying oil aggressively, and that decision now looks prescient. Customs data showed crude imports in January and February rose 15.8% from a year earlier, to 96.93 million metric tons, as refiners kept throughput elevated and the government continued adding to reserves.
The move appears to have been driven less by immediate consumer demand than by energy-security planning. Analysts cited by Reuters said China was increasing stockpiles even as domestic fuel demand remained soft, giving Beijing a larger cushion just before fighting in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz threatened global supply flows.
That buffer matters because China remains heavily exposed to seaborne crude from the Middle East. As conflict has unsettled flows through Hormuz, Beijing has signaled it will act to protect supply, with analysts saying potential responses could include restricting fuel exports or releasing crude reserves to domestic refiners.
China comments. Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said on Tuesday that “China will take necessary measures to safeguard its own energy security.”
The oil-buying spree also helped lift China’s broader trade numbers. Exports jumped 22% in the first two months of 2026, while the surge in commodity purchases contributed to a sharp rise in imports as well, underscoring how energy stockpiling became part of a wider trade rebound at the start of the year.
Bottom Line: China’s early-year crude buildup was not just opportunistic buying — it was a strategic hedge against exactly the kind of geopolitical disruption now hitting global energy markets.
| CONGRESS |
—Johnson floats reconciliation package to target fraud in Democratic-led States
Speaker says GOP could use budget maneuver to crack down on alleged misuse of federal funds, though political hurdles remain
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Tuesday suggested Republicans may pursue a sweeping reconciliation package aimed at rooting out what he described as fraud, waste, and abuse in Democratic-led states.
Speaking at the House Republican retreat in Doral, Johnson said he has long supported using reconciliation — a legislative process that allows certain fiscal measures to pass the Senate with a simple majority — as a key tool for advancing GOP priorities.
Johnson said Republicans are looking for areas of broad agreement within their conference that could anchor such a package, emphasizing efforts to reduce costs and combat government fraud. He pointed to alleged fraud cases in states including Minnesota and California as examples that could justify federal action.
The comments follow a recent hearing by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, where lawmakers questioned Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and state Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) over a major fraud scandal tied to social services programs.
President Donald Trump has also highlighted the case as part of his broader immigration and anti-fraud agenda, pledging during last month’s State of the Union address to wage a nationwide “war on fraud.”
Still, passing another reconciliation package would be challenging. Republicans hold only a narrow majority in the House, and the process requires near-unanimous GOP support. Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, said crafting a second reconciliation bill would be “extremely rare and difficult,” noting that the first effort required delicate negotiations across competing Republican priorities.
—Arrington pushes reconciliation sequel, but doubts remain
House Republicans are moving toward a possible second reconciliation bill, though key GOP leaders remain split on whether it can pass
House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said he plans to mark up a budget resolution within 30 days, signaling Republicans are laying the groundwork for a possible second reconciliation package before the midterms, even as leaders remain divided over whether it can pass.
Speaking at the House GOP retreat in Doral, Fla., Arrington said the resolution would include a 10-year fiscal framework and a discretionary spending topline, though he cautioned it may not initially contain reconciliation instructions if the conference is not fully on board. He argued that advancing another major package is politically important to energize Republican voters ahead of November.
Still, skepticism inside the conference remains significant. House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said he would welcome a second reconciliation bill but does not believe it will happen, while Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) struck a more hopeful but cautious tone, saying any follow-up package would likely be smaller. Conservatives such as House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) are pushing for a narrower bill focused on issues like fraud in government programs, while Arrington and allies including Rep. August Pfluger (R-Tex.) say the House needs to keep moving.
—Senate moves housing bill forward
Broad bipartisan support in the Senate contrasts with a murkier path in the House and a potential standoff with President Trump over election legislation
The Senate on Tuesday moved a bipartisan housing bill one step closer to passage, advancing legislation designed to lower housing costs by boosting the nation’s housing supply. The measure cleared a procedural hurdle in an 89 – 9 – 1 vote and could come up for a final Senate vote later this week.
The bill’s biggest challenge may come in the House, where some Republicans are already signaling they want changes before agreeing to take it up. Adding to the uncertainty, President Trump has said he will not sign legislation until Congress first passes the SAVE America Act, a measure that would impose voter ID requirements and other election-related restrictions.
Even so, if both chambers ultimately approve the housing bill and Trump declines to sign or veto it, the measure could still become law after 10 days. The result is a strong Senate showing for a housing-supply package, but one that still faces significant political hurdles before reaching the finish line.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Georgia 14 runoff set
Democrat Shawn Harris led the special election, but Trump-backed Republican Clay Fuller remains favored in an April 7 showdown in this deep-red seat
Democrat Shawn Harris and Republican Clay Fuller are projected to advance to an April 7 runoff in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District after no candidate cleared the 50% threshold required to win outright in Tuesday’s all-party special election. Harris, a retired brigadier general and cattle producer, is expected to finish first, with Fuller — a Trump-endorsed Republican — likely to place second.
The result sets up an unusual runoff dynamic: Harris can claim momentum from finishing atop a crowded field, but the district’s strong Republican tilt still gives Fuller the advantage. Donald Trump carried the northwest Georgia district by about 37 points in 2024, making the seat one Republicans are still expected to hold despite Harris’s stronger-than-expected first-round showing.
Fuller’s standing has been boosted by Trump’s explicit endorsement and a joint appearance with the president in the district last month, underscoring how closely the White House is watching the race. Harris, meanwhile, entered with name recognition after losing to former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) in 2024, and his first-place finish suggests Democrats were able to consolidate more effectively than Republicans in the initial jungle ballot. That said, the runoff will likely test whether anti-Democratic voting in the district quickly coalesces behind Fuller.
The stakes extend beyond northwest Georgia. With the House GOP majority still narrow, Republicans have strong incentive to lock down a seat that is central to maintaining their margin, especially as leadership continues to navigate legislation with little room for defections. In practical terms, this now looks less like a true toss-up than a test of whether Democrats can force Republicans to spend time and money defending even heavily favorable terrain.
| TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS |
—Shutdown-strained TSA lines snarl spring travel
With unpaid screeners and rising absences stretching security waits to as long as three hours at some airports, travelers are being urged to arrive earlier, use expedited screening where possible, and check airport-specific updates before leaving home
Travelers across the U.S. are facing unusually long TSA security lines as the partial federal funding lapse hits checkpoint staffing during the spring travel ramp-up. The Transportation Security Administration has warned that waits at some major airports are approaching three hours, with missed flights and major delays already being reported. Reuters and other outlets have also reported worsening lines tied to rising absences among unpaid screeners.
The problem stems from the mid-February shutdown affecting the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees TSA. Roughly 50,000 TSA officers are still required to work, but without normal pay, raising pressure on staffing and increasing absenteeism risks during one of the busier travel periods of the year. TSA had already warned Congress in February that shutdown conditions could worsen officer attrition and undermine checkpoint operations.
For travelers, the main takeaway is to give yourself more time than usual. Some airports are advising passengers to arrive three to four hours before departure during peak periods, especially at large hubs where staffing shortages are most visible. Checking your airport’s own website or social media feeds may be more reliable right now than TSA’s tools, because TSA has said some website content is not being actively managed during the funding lapse, and reporting indicates the MyTSA app and wait-time tracker have been affected.
TSA PreCheck is still operating and remains one of the best ways to reduce delays, though some dedicated lanes may close temporarily depending on staffing. By contrast, Global Entry processing has been disrupted during the shutdown, meaning some international travelers may face longer standard passport-control lines on return. Travelers with access to Touchless ID, where available, may be able to move through identity checks more quickly using facial recognition instead of manual document screening.
Bottom Line: arrive early, use PreCheck if you have it, look for airport-issued wait-time updates, and expect conditions to remain uneven as long as the shutdown continues.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Widespread showers and thunderstorms spread eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic southwest to the Gulf Coast Wednesday with a severe weather/flash flood threat… …A couple rounds of wintry precipitation expected from the Upper Great Lakes to northern New England mid- to late week… …Continued active pattern for the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies will bring heavy lower elevation/coastal rain and high elevation snow this week… …One more day of well above average, record-tying/breaking heat for the eastern U.S. Wednesday before a cold front brings cooler, seasonable temperatures Thursday.
