Congress Out, But War with Iran Main Focus
Perspective on Friday’s ag sector confab at White House | Key USDA reports Tuesday
| LINKS |
Link: Weekend Updates, March 28:
Link: Trump Rolls Out Ag Relief at Historic White House Farm Gathering
Link: EPA Finalizes RFS Set 2 Rule with Higher Biodiesel Targets,
70% SRE Reallocation
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 29
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 29
Topics discussed on podcast:
Markets: Friday closes and weekly change
Markets: USDA’s Prospective Plantings, Grain stocks reports
Markets: Cattle market a head scratcher
Issues:
1. White House ag announcements
2. RFS details from EPA
3. Perspective on emergency waivers for E15
4. Small actions on fertilizers — Venezuela, Belarus
5. Planting getting closer in heart of Corn Belt
6. USDA Food Price Outlook shows sticky food inflation
7. Oil prices – structural versus fear premium and when will that shift
(gas and diesel price update)
8. Trump/Xi summit rescheduled… for now, what it means for ag
9. Hogs & Pigs report perspective
| The Week Ahead: March 29, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Global chokepoints exposed as war in Iran disrupts maritime trade — The Economist analysis underscores that the Strait of Hormuz disruption highlights broader vulnerability across global chokepoints, with geopolitical conflict, climate stress, and drone warfare raising risks to the ~85% of trade moving by sea.
— Fed forecasts under fire — WSJ’s Sternberg calls for silence — Wall Street Journal opinion by Joseph C. Sternberg argues the Fed’s “dot plot” distorts markets and damages credibility, urging policymakers to abandon forward guidance and restore market-driven signals.
— Border intercepts fuel alarm over potential Iran-linked sleeper cells — Lawmakers warn that while ~1,500 Iranian nationals were intercepted, the unknown number who entered undetected amid rising Iran tensions presents a potential national security risk.
— Iran’s pressure campaign reshapes Gulf alliances — Financial Times analysis says escalating Iranian threats are pushing Gulf states back toward U.S. and Israeli security cooperation despite prior efforts to diversify alliances.
— Student loan reset — millions told to resume payments — The Trump administration is ending the SAVE plan, requiring ~7.5 million borrowers to reenter repayment, marking a sharp policy shift from Biden-era relief.
CONGRESS
— Congress in recess through early April — Both the House and Senate are in district/state work periods through April 10, with no regular legislative activity expected unless emergency recalls occur.
— Trump Friday farm event blends policy rollout with political messaging — The “Great American Agriculture Celebration” featured RFS announcements, tax and equipment policy pushes, and strong political appeals, even as questions persist over weak farm income conditions.
KEY EVENTS
— Fed, Iran war, and AI dominate policy calendar — A heavy week of Fed speeches, geopolitical panels on the Iran conflict, and AI-focused policy discussions will shape macro and security narratives.
— Global security and economic forums intensify focus on Iran war fallout — Think tanks and institutions are convening multiple events on supply chains, defense, and geopolitical realignment tied to the conflict.
ECONOMIC REPORTS
— Markets eye jobs report amid war-driven inflation risks — Focus centers on Friday’s payrolls data, with modest job growth expected, alongside ISM, retail sales, and trade data as oil-driven inflation concerns build.
— Good Friday shortens trading week — U.S. markets close Friday, potentially amplifying volatility around key data releases and geopolitical developments.
AG REPORTS
— USDA reports to anchor ag markets this week — Tuesday’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports are key, with corn acres seen near 94M and soybeans ~85–86M, though war-driven fertilizer uncertainty clouds outlook.
— Demand divergence across crops — Strong corn export demand contrasts with weaker soybean exports, while crush remains a bright spot for soybeans.
ENERGY REPORTS
— Energy markets driven by inventories, geopolitics, and positioning — API/EIA data, natural gas storage, and rig counts will guide supply expectations, while geopolitical risk and contract expirations add volatility.
— Global conferences highlight LNG and trade flows early week — International events and North Sea loadings set the tone before U.S. data and positioning reports later in the week.
| TOP STORIES—Global chokepoints exposed as war in Iran disrupts maritime tradeThe Economist — staff report highlights rising risks across critical sea lanes The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have underscored the fragility of global maritime trade, with roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows disrupted, sending shockwaves through global economies. The Economist reports (link) that while Hormuz is critical, it is just one of many vulnerable chokepoints — including the Strait of Malacca, Panama Canal, Suez Canal, and Turkish straits — that collectively underpin about 85% of global trade by volume. New threats are compounding risks: drone warfare, regional conflicts spilling into sea lanes, and climate disruptions like droughts limiting canal traffic, all of which are increasing the likelihood of supply chain shocks. The report warns that a broader conflict — particularly involving the U.S. and China over Taiwan — could trigger blockades and widespread disruption across multiple maritime corridors simultaneously, dramatically reshaping global trade flows. Even when alternative routes exist, detours can add weeks and thousands of miles to shipping journeys, raising costs and straining already fragile logistics networks. Countries are responding by diversifying supply chains, investing in infrastructure, and strengthening naval capabilities, but these adjustments will take years — leaving global trade highly exposed in the near term. Central Takeaway: geography still governs global commerce, and as geopolitical tensions rise, control of key maritime chokepoints is once again emerging as a decisive factor in economic and strategic power. —Fed forecasts under fire — WSJ’s Sternberg calls for silenceOpinion argues Fed’s “dot plot” and projections distort markets, erode credibility — In an opinion column (link) for the Wall Street Journal, Joseph C. Sternberg argues the Federal Reserve should abandon its quarterly economic projections, contending that the widely watched “dot plot” and forward guidance framework are distorting market signals and undermining the central bank’s credibility. The piece highlights remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who acknowledged internal hesitation about issuing forecasts amid uncertainty tied to the Iran war. Sternberg argues that hesitation was justified and should have led the Fed to skip the projections altogether. He traces the rise of forward guidance from the more opaque era of Alan Greenspan to its expansion under Ben Bernanke, when projections became a core policy tool aimed at shaping expectations. Sternberg contends the approach has failed, pointing to repeated errors since 2022 — especially on inflation — that have damaged the Fed’s technocratic standing and raised doubts about its policy judgment. He further argues that the projections interfere with market price discovery by pushing investors to react to Fed guidance rather than underlying economic conditions, depriving policymakers of useful real-time signals. With a leadership transition looming, including the expected elevation of Kevin Warsh, Sternberg calls for a reset — urging the Fed to scrap the projections and return to a more restrained communication approach. Bottom Line: The column argues the Fed’s transparency push has gone too far — turning forecasts into a liability that clouds markets and weakens institutional credibility. —Border intercepts fuel alarm over potential Iran-linked ‘sleeper cells’ in U.S.Lawmakers cite rising security risks amid war with Iran, but acknowledge uncertainty over scope of threat Mounting national security concerns are emerging following reports that roughly 1,500 Iranian nationals were intercepted at the U.S. border in recent years, with lawmakers warning that an unknown number may have entered undetected — raising fears of potential “sleeper cells” inside the country. According to a New York Post article, Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) said the figures are “deeply concerning,” noting that about half of those detained between 2021 and 2024 were reportedly released into the U.S. pending immigration proceedings. Additional data cited from the Niskanen Center indicates interceptions may have reached as high as 1,650 between 2022 and 2025. The concern centers less on those apprehended and more on those who may have evaded detection. Hagerty warned that officials “have no idea how many people got around,” adding there is a “greater than 0% probability” that sleeper operatives could already be present. The warnings follow a federal security alert citing the possibility that Iran could activate “prepositioned sleeper assets” in retaliation for ongoing U.S. and Israeli military strikes. The escalation in the Middle East — including strikes on Iranian infrastructure — has intensified fears of asymmetric retaliation on U.S. soil. President Donald Trump acknowledged the issue earlier, linking border security concerns to broader national security risks, while asserting authorities are monitoring individuals who entered during prior years. Other lawmakers echoed the heightened concern. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, pointed to “a moment with a lot of safety challenges,” while Sen. James Risch (R-Idaho) said there is “good reason to be vigilant.” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) added that even a single actor could pose a serious threat. Overall, officials are urging vigilance as geopolitical tensions rise, but much of the concern remains rooted in uncertainty — particularly regarding how many individuals may have entered the U.S. undetected and whether any are tied to hostile networks. —Iran’s pressure campaign reshapes Gulf alliancesFinancial Times analysis says security realities — not sentiment — are pushing Gulf states back toward Washington An analysis from the Financial Times argues that Iran’s escalating aggression across the Gulf is accelerating — not weakening — regional alignment with the United States, despite years of frustration with U.S. policy. At the core of the FT’s view is a simple dynamic: Gulf states may resent Washington’s unpredictability and past disengagement, but they lack viable alternatives when it comes to advanced defense capabilities. The region’s exposure to Iranian missiles, drones, and proxy networks has underscored a dependence on U.S. — and increasingly Israeli — military technology for air defense, intelligence, and cyber capabilities. Recent developments reinforce that shift. Iranian strikes and proxy activity targeting Gulf infrastructure and territory have heightened threat perceptions across countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, forcing leaders to prioritize hard security over diplomatic balancing. Meanwhile, Western-supplied air defense systems have performed effectively against Iranian attacks, strengthening confidence in U.S.-backed security architecture and highlighting the limits of neutrality or hedging strategies. The FT analysis suggests this creates a strategic paradox for the Gulf:• Many states have spent years diversifying ties toward China and other partners• Yet Iran’s behavior is pulling them back into closer coordination with Washington• And, increasingly, quiet cooperation with Israel on shared defense concerns In practical terms, that means deeper integration in missile defense, intelligence sharing, and regional security planning — even as political mistrust lingers. The broader implication is that Iran’s attempt to project power across the region may ultimately consolidate a more cohesive U.S.-aligned security bloc in the Gulf — the opposite of what Tehran likely intended. —Student loan reset — millions told to resume paymentsTrump administration ends SAVE plan, requires borrowers to shift into repayment Millions of student loan borrowers who believed they would not have to repay debt under former President Joe Biden’s forgiveness framework were notified March 27 that payments will resume. The U.S. Department of Education said it is contacting roughly 7.5 million borrowers enrolled in the “Saving on a Valuable Education” (SAVE) plan, instructing them to exit the program and transition into a new federal repayment option. Quote of note: “Today’s guidance — which every borrower enrolled in the defunct SAVE plan will receive over the next week — puts the Biden administration’s illegal student loan bailout agenda to rest once and for all,” said Undersecretary of Education Nicholas Kent. “For years, borrowers have been caught in a confusing cycle of uncertainty, but the Trump administration’s policy is simple: if you take out a loan, you must pay it back.” |
| —CONGRESS |
—Both chambers are on recess — members are back in their states/districts rather than holding regular legislative sessions in Washington. The only exception would be unexpected recalls, which can happen (e.g., during funding disputes), but the scheduled status is recess.
The U.S. Senate is in a state work period (recess) from March 30 through April 10.
The U.S. House of Representatives is also out of Washington (district work period) during this same timeframe.
—Trump hosts White House farm gathering blending policy rollouts and political messaging
“Great American Agriculture Celebration” features EPA biofuel announcement, tax and trade claims, and sharp appeals to farmer voters
President Donald Trump on Friday, March 27, hosted what he described as “the single largest gathering of farmers the White House has ever had” during a 37-minute “Great American Agriculture Celebration,” combining policy announcements with campaign-style rhetoric and direct appeals to agricultural producers.
At the event, Trump announced that the Environmental Protection Agency had released updated volumetric requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), while also using the gathering to highlight a wide range of administration policies and political positions.
Cringe quote of note: Trump told farmers his administration had delivered $12 billion in support, adding, “You make enough money, you don’t need it,” while questioning whether former President Joe Biden would have provided similar aid. He repeatedly argued that farm income “has soared” under his leadership.
Perspective: With a severe cash flow drain underway for most row crop producers, U.S. farmers are not making enough money, thus the need for taxpayer aid. Also, farm income has not soared under Trump’s leadership as last year, USDA significantly lowered farm income by $52 billion. This year’s farm income projections are just that, initial forecasts. Why Trump and USDA Secretary Rollins keep trying to put a positive spin on farm income is bewildering to many ag stakeholders.
Trump recognized Cabinet officials in attendance — including USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler — calling them “great Cabinet officers.” He also singled out supportive lawmakers in Congress, telling attendees that legislators “want your votes desperately” and are “the most aggressive for the farmer, other than me.”
Trump praised American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall, saying he “has been with me right from the beginning,” and acknowledged the presence of FFA and 4-H leaders.
The president sharply criticized the Biden administration, saying it had “crippled agriculture with regulations” and failed to secure trade deals. He also claimed his administration convinced China to double soybean imports to $40 billion, adding that the increased demand allows farmers to “go out and buy bigger tractors.”
Trump highlighted provisions in his “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” saying farmers can now deduct the full cost of a new tractor in one year — “only Trump could have gotten you that one.” He also said eliminating the estate tax on farms saved 2 million American farms from extinction and asserted that “every Democrat” opposed those tax changes.
On regulatory policy, Trump said his administration implemented a “right to repair” rule for farm equipment and directed EPA to ensure that companies pass along savings from reduced environmental regulations through lower equipment prices.
He also addressed environmental and livestock policy, criticizing efforts to reduce cattle numbers for climate reasons and characterizing environmental advocates in stark terms. (Rollins later told reporters the methane issue had been discussed at length with the Cabinet.)
Trump further announced that the Small Business Administration will expand loan guarantees for farmers and food companies.
The president also launched direct political attacks, calling Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz “crazy and corrupt” and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison “a dirty cop,” and told attendees that “any farmer who votes for the Democrats is crazy.”
Another quote of note: Framing the moment broadly, Trump declared that the “golden age of American agriculture is right here and right now.”
Perspective: The ‘golden age of American agriculture” line in the past had been used by Rollins, who has refrained from the line recently because if this is the golden age for U.S. agriculture, farmers will dread the next economic downturn.
The event also featured a gold-wrapped Fendt 1167 Vario MT tractor displayed on the White House grounds, which the company says represents U.S. manufacturing and its “Gold Star Customer Care” program.
Perspective: President Trump clearly connects farmers with tractors and frequently encourages them to buy them. But a look at farmer financial records the past few years shows that those producers who avoided big farm equipment purchases the past few years are in better financial shape than most others, or this is one of the reasons why they are still farming: It takes profits to purchase expensive farm equipment. Finally, it will be interesting to track whether the prices for tractors and other farm equipment come down significantly as Trump wants.
Rollins closed the event by telling attendees there is “no better job than being Agriculture secretary” and urging the crowd to stand and thank the president.
The gathering ended with music from Village People — including “YMCA” — as Trump danced, echoing the tone of his campaign rallies.
| —KEY EVENTS |
Mon., March 30
• U.S./China relations. Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion on “U.S./China Relations and the Global Economy.”
• China’s economy. Hudson Institute discussion on “China’s Economic Slowdown: Risks, Realities, and Strategic Implications.”
• Iran war. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “Winners and Losers: Russia, China, and Europe Respond to the Iran War.”
•Consumer bankers’ meeting. Consumer Bankers Association (Live Conference, runs through Tuesday.
• AI and the workforce. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research event on “The Future of Workforce Training in the AI Era.”
Tue., March 31
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks on Stablecoins; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on Small Business in California. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak.
•Federal agencies and AI. Oracle Federal Forum, focusing on “how federal agencies can leverage the latest AI and other tech innovations to improve efficiency and advance their missions.”
• Iranian drones. Atlantic Council’s Strategic Litigation Project; the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Washington, D.C.; the International Partnership for Human Rights; and C4ADS virtual launch of a report titled “From Tehran to Kyiv: The Islamic Republic of Iran’s Role in Russia’s Drone War.”
•Iran war plans. Foreign Policy webinar on “Iran’s Evolving War Plan.”
• Space prelaunch. National Aeronautics and Space Administration virtual prelaunch news conference for the Artemis II mission around the Moon.
• Middle East war fallout. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on “Global Fallout: The Iran War, From Hormuz to the Indo-Pacific.”
•Government data and AI. Government Executive Media Group and GIST 360 virtual discussion on “Transforming Federal Data Into a Strategic National Asset for the AI Era.”
•Energy transition. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “Financing Energy Transitions in Developing Economies.”
•Securities law. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies D.C. Young Lawyer Chapter discussion on “The Future of Securities Law.”
Wed. April 1
• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks on AI and Consumer Issues in Washington, DC. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to speak.
• AII and supply chains. German Marshall Fund of the United States discussion on “artificial intelligence and the supply chains that underpin it,” focusing on “how Europe and the United States can prevent fragmentation, unlock investment, strengthen growth, and jointly shape global standards and partnerships at this moment of accelerating technological and geopolitical competition.”
•Monetary policy. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “monetary policy, economic risks and the outlook for the U.S. economy.”
• Industry policy. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Industry policy for development.”
•Middle East war implications. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion on “Regional Shockwaves: Long-Term Implications of the US/Israel/Iran War.”
•Gulf conflict and businesses. DGA Group virtual discussion on “The Gulf Conflict: What It Means for Business.”
•The Trump Doctrine. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; and Boston Review virtual discussion on “The Trump Doctrine,” focusing on “what it means when great powers prioritize economic strangulation over diplomacy.”
•Major Questions Doctrine. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on “Major Questions Doctrine: From West Virginia v. EPA to Learning Resources.”
• Artemis moon mission. National Aeronautics and Space Administration post-launch news conference for the Artemis II mission around the Moon “after the SLS (Space Launch System) rocket’s upper stage performs a burn to send Orion and its crew to high Earth orbit.”
Thur., April 2
• Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is scheduled to speak.
• War diplomacy. Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum on “Diplomacy During War: Priorities for the Trump Administration.”
•Future of aid. George Washington University (GWU) Elliott School of International Affairs Humanitarian Action Initiative discussion on “The Future of Aid: Can ‘Aid’ Marginalize?”
•Post-Maduro relations. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion on “What is the New Paradigm of U.S./Venezuela Relations Post-Maduro?”
Fri., April 3
• Ukraine defense. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion with active-duty air defense operators from the Ukrainian army and air force, on “Adapting Under Fire: Ukraine’s Race to Reinvent Modern Defense.”
• Moon mission. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (virtual mission status briefing for the Artemis II mission around the Moon.
| —ECONOMIC REPORTS |
—This week will be shortened by Good Friday, with U.S. stock and bond markets closed. Investor focus will center on Middle East developments and commentary from the Federal Reserve for signals on monetary policy, particularly as rising crude prices fuel inflation concerns. Despite ongoing ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran, tensions remain elevated, with the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz weighing on global markets.
In the U.S., the March jobs report out Friday, April 3, will be the key data release. (Markets will close for Good Friday, though the March jobs report will still be released.) Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 48,000 following February’s unexpected 92,000 decline. The unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 4.5%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.4%, matching the prior month.
Additional data to watch include the ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected to remain in expansion territory; retail sales, seen rising 0.4%; JOLTS job openings, projected to decline to 6.85 million; and the trade balance, which is expected to widen. Investors will also track ADP employment, Case-Shiller home prices, business inventories, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago PMI.
Elsewhere, Canada will release GDP, trade balance, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data, while Mexico reports business confidence and Brazil publishes industrial production figures.
Mon., March 30
Tue., March 31
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI | Chicago PMI | FHFA House Price Index | Consumer Confidence | JOLTS
Wed., April 1
• ADP Employment Report | Business Inventories | Retail Sales | PMI Manufacturing | ISM Manufacturing Index
Thur., April 2
• Jobless Claims | International Trade
Fri., April 3
• U.S. equity, financial and commodity futures markets closed for Good Friday |Employment| PMI Composite Final
| —AG REPORTS |
—One of the biggest USDA report days is Tuesday with the Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. Link for pre-report expectations.
USDA Prospective Plantings 2026
Pre-Report Analyst Estimates by Crop — March 31, 2026
Compiled from Reuters, Dow Jones, and AgMarket.Net surveys ahead of the USDA report release at 11:00 a.m. CDT (noon ET) on Tuesday, March 31, 2026. All figures in millions of acres (ma). Dashes (—) indicate no estimate available from that source.
| Crop | Reuters Avg. | Dow Jones Avg. | AgMarket.Net | 2025 Actual |
| Corn | 94.371 ma | 94.5 ma | 94.4 ma | 98.788 ma |
| Soybeans | 85.549 ma | 85.5 ma | 86.1 ma | 81.215 ma |
| Spring Wheat | 9.843 ma | — | — | 9.990 ma |
| All Wheat | — | — | 44.7 ma | 45.3 ma |
| Cotton | — | — | ~9.19 ma | ~9.3 ma |
Key notes:
• Reuters and Dow Jones averages are closely aligned on corn (94.371 vs. 94.5 ma) and soybeans (85.549 vs. 85.5 ma).
• AgMarket.Net’s soybean estimate of 86.1 ma is the most bullish, above the Reuters average of 85.549 ma.
• Spring wheat acres of 9.843 ma (Reuters) would be the lowest since 1970.
• Cotton acreage near 9.19 ma would be an 11-year low, though severe drought (88% of production area) remains a bullish counterweight.
• Survey timing caveat: bulk of farmer surveys were returned in early March, before the full impact of the Iran war on fertilizer costs was apparent. Traders are likely to view the report with some skepticism.
The Grain Stocks report — also released Tuesday.
Paired with Prospective Plantings is the March 1 Grain Stocks snapshot.
For soybeans, the average trade guess for March 1 stocks is 2.077 billion bushels, which if true would be the largest March 1 reserves since 2020. Export demand continues to lag recent years due to the 2025 trade war with China, with second-quarter exports estimated at roughly 540 million bushels — the lowest since the first trade war from 2018–20. Crush, on the other hand, has continued its record pace, with an estimated 672 million bushels of soybeans processed through the December-to-March window, an 8.5% increase from the same point in 2025.
For corn, demand has been the standout story. Exports have been leading the charge, estimated at over 800 million bushels of shipments during the second quarter of the marketing year.
Mon., March 30
• AMS: Export Inspections NASS: Agricultural Prices
Tue., March 31
• NASS: Grain Stocks | Prospective Plantings | Rice Stocks ERS: Livestock and Meat Domestic Data
Wed., April 1
• NASS: Cotton System | Fats & Oils | Grain Crushings | Broiler Hatchery | Weekly Weather: State Stories
Thur., April 2
• FAS: Export Sales NASS: Dairy Products | Peanut Prices | Slaughter Weekly
| —ENERGY REPORTS |
—Energy markets this week will be driven by a mix of global supply signals and key U.S. data releases, with international conferences highlighting LNG, refining, and trade flows early in the week. Attention will shift to U.S. inventory data — starting with API and followed by the EIA petroleum report — alongside ethanol production trends that inform biofuel demand. Later in the week, natural gas storage data and the Baker Hughes rig count will shape expectations for future supply, while Brent futures and options expirations add near-term volatility. Positioning data from CFTC and ICE, combined with holiday-thinned liquidity into Friday, could amplify price moves, particularly against an already sensitive geopolitical backdrop.
Mon., March 30
• Australian Domestic Gas Outlook conference, Sydney; runs through Thursday | OilChem Gas Week in Chongqing, China; runs through Thursday | Egypt Energy Show, Cairo; runs through Wednesday | Main North Sea loading programs (May) | Holiday: Azerbaijan
Tue., March 31
• API US inventory report | Energy Storage International Conference & Expo in Beijing; runs through Friday Brent May futures expire | Holiday: India
Wed., April 1
• EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | Holiday: Myanmar.
Thur., April 2
• EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | Brent May options expire | Baker-Hughes Rig Count | Holidays: Philippines; Israel; Norway; Mexico; Venezuela
Fri., April 3
• ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Holidays: Several countries observe Good Friday.
