Trump: China ‘Very Happy’ About Strait of Hormuz; Promises Not to Send Weapons to Iran
Key issues for Virginia cattle producers | What ifs for midterm elections
| LINKS |
Link: Fertilizer Affordability Crisis Deepens for U.S. Farmers, Farm Bureau
Survey Finds
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 11
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 11
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 15, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— U.S./Iran conflict updates — diplomacy signals emerge amid ongoing military pressure: Talks may resume within days even as the U.S. blockade of Hormuz holds firm, with nuclear demands and oil leverage central to negotiations and China quietly supporting diplomacy.
— Tariff revival push signals harder U.S. trade line: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlines plans to reinstate Trump-era tariffs by July using new legal authority, dismissing IMF warnings of slowing global growth.
— Virginia cattle producers confront drought, risk costs, and land pressures ahead of Beef Expo: Persistent drought, expensive risk protection, volatile markets, and land competition are complicating herd rebuilding despite strong cattle prices.
— Cartel influence touches Mexico’s cattle sector but falls short of industry control: Organized crime exerts pressure through extortion and smuggling, but formal beef production remains largely regulated and independent.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Futures edge lower on mixed geopolitical signals, while the U.S. dollar weakens as ceasefire optimism boosts risk appetite.
— Equities yesterday: Nasdaq extends a 10-day winning streak, with all major indexes posting gains.
— Bank earnings signal economic resilience: Strong trading results lift Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, reinforcing signs of solid consumer spending.
— Trump escalates pressure campaign on Fed leadership: A legal probe, Senate resistance, and succession battle around Chair Jerome Powell inject fresh uncertainty into monetary policy outlook.
AG MARKETS
— NOPA March crush seen hitting record high amid strong margins and capacity strain: Soybean processing demand remains robust, though maintenance downtime and weaker oil yields temper efficiency.
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Mixed commodity moves with strength in cattle and wheat, while soy complex and cotton decline.
FERTILIZER
— Fertilizer tightness reflects global disruption more than pure supply shortfall: Energy shocks and trade bottlenecks — not capacity limits — are driving tight supplies, with bigger risks emerging for the 2027 crop year.
FARMER AID
— Congress weighs farm aid amid tight margins and legislative gridlock: Lawmakers are likely to approve $10B–$15B in aid via must-pass legislation, though timing and structure remain uncertain.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Wednesday: Oil rises as Hormuz bottlenecks persist despite ceasefire hopes: Supply constraints and U.S. enforcement actions continue to support prices despite diplomacy signals.
— Tuesday: Oil markets ease on diplomacy hopes despite persistent supply strains: Prices fall on optimism around talks, though underlying disruptions remain historically severe.
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Analysts continue to predict Democratic takeover of House following midterm elections: Democrats favored to flip the House while the Senate remains competitive but leaning GOP.
— If Democrats take the gavels: who would lead Congress’ Ag committees — and what would they do? Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and a contested House race could reshape farm policy priorities toward nutrition, antitrust, and conservation.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Severe storms, late snow, and regional heat dominate near-term conditions across the U.S.
— Severe weather delays U.S. planting as plains drought intensifies: Heavy rains stall Corn Belt planting while drought and fire risks worsen in the wheat belt ahead of a late-month pattern shift.
| TOP STORIES—U.S./Iran conflict updates — diplomacy signals emerge amid ongoing military pressureTalks floated as blockade tightens and regional tensions persist• Donald Trump said a second round of U.S./Iran talks could take place “over the next two days” in Pakistan, according to remarks to the New York Post, signaling a potential diplomatic opening despite escalating military pressure. Trump told ABC that the ceasefire ending next week may not need an extension. Meanwhile, Trump said the U.S./Iran war is “very close” to an end as hostilities ease amid a two-week ceasefire agreement. “I think it’s close to over, yeah. I view it as very close to being over,” Trump told Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo in an interview that will air on Mornings with Maria on Wednesday. “I think it’s close to over, yeah. I view it as very close to being over,” Trump said. • The main areas of disagreement continue to be Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Vice President JD Vance, there are two non-negotiables for Trump: Removing Iran’s enriched uranium from the country and implementing verification measures to ensure it cannot obtain nuclear weapons. •Javier Blas of Bloomberg Opinion calculates that Iran has made about $175 million a day from oil sales since the strikes began, up sharply from prewar levels, giving it a big financial cushion. Whether the blockade will soften Tehran’s stance at the negotiating table remains to be seen.•The Pentagon said its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains fully effective, with no ships passing through. U.S. forces reportedly turned back six merchant vessels attempting to transit, reinforcing the chokehold on a route that typically carries about 20% of global oil and LNG flows. A U.S.-sanctioned Chinese tanker Rich Starry made its way back to the Strait of Hormuz after exiting the Gulf the day before, shipping data showed, failing to break through a U.S. blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports is not a tactic to force China to pressure Iran into a peace deal, according to analysts. Rather, the U.S. aimed to end the war through showing its maritime supremacy over the world’s most vital energy chokepoint, they argued. • China signaled support for renewed U.S./Iran diplomacy, saying it “welcomes all efforts conducive to a ceasefire and the cessation of hostilities,” according to remarks at a regular Foreign Ministry briefing in Beijing on Wednesday. Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun also commended Pakistan for helping facilitate a temporary ceasefire, describing its role as fair and balanced. Meanwhile, Beijing has been working behind the scenes to encourage Tehran to engage in talks. President Donald Trump said he believes China played a part in persuading Iran to agree to the ceasefire. • Trump says China is ‘very happy’ about the Strait of Hormuz. “China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz,” President Trump says in a post. “This situation will never happen again,” he adds. China “agreed not to send weapons to Iran” and predicted Chinese leader Xi Jinping “will give me a big, fat, hug” when they meet next month. Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing on May 14-15. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today said “We’ve got great stability in the relationship” with China. Speaking at a CNBC event, Bessent said: “We’re on track for the mid-May meeting.” Bessent adds his staff is meeting with representatives of his Chinese counterpart. Bessent criticized China for stockpiling crude oil and limiting exports of certain goods — drawing a parallel with Chinese moves during the Covid-19 pandemic. “China has been an unreliable global partner three times in the past five years; once during Covid when they hoarded healthcare products, [and] second on rare earth,” he told reporters Tuesday.• The U.S. announced that Israel and Lebanon agreed to launch direct negotiations following trilateral talks in Washington, a notable diplomatic development aimed at easing cross-border tensions.•Israel’s ambassador to the U.S. said Israel and Lebanon are “united in liberating Lebanon” from Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia, which has responded with threats of a potential violent coup if the Lebanese government moves against it. Meanwhile, fighting continues on the ground, with Israel’s offensive operations ongoing and Hezbollah sustaining rocket attacks, underscoring the fragile and highly volatile nature of the broader regional conflict.—Tariff revival push signals harder U.S. trade lineBessent outlines legal path to restore Trump tariffs while dismissing global growth concerns tied to war U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration is preparing to reinstate tariffs struck down earlier this year, signaling a renewed push to harden U.S. trade policy despite mounting global economic concerns. Bessent indicated that tariffs previously imposed under President Donald Trump could be restored by July using alternative legal authority. The move follows a February decision by the U.S. Supreme Court that invalidated the original levies. According to Bessent, the administration plans to rely on provisions that allow tariffs against countries deemed to be engaging in unfair trade practices — effectively sidestepping the legal issues that led to the earlier ruling. The comments reinforce expectations that tariffs will remain a central pillar of U.S. economic strategy, particularly as the administration seeks leverage in ongoing trade disputes and broader geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, Bessent pushed back on the International Monetary Fund’s recent downgrade of its 2026 global growth forecast, which cited fallout from the ongoing war and trade disruptions. He argued the IMF had “overreacted,” emphasizing resilience in the U.S. economy and downplaying risks of a sustained global slowdown. The IMF cut its growth outlook to 3.1% assuming a short-lived Iran war but said the world was already drifting toward a more adverse scenario of 2.5% growth in 2026 as Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions continue. The IMF says the war in Iran is weighing on the global economy, and that it could tip the world toward recession if it drags on. “The global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” an IMF economic counselor wrote in the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, published Tuesday. The conflict could still trigger a global “energy crisis on an unprecedented scale,” the economist added. The dual message — a readiness to escalate tariffs alongside confidence in economic strength — underscores a policy stance that prioritizes trade enforcement and domestic positioning, even as international institutions warn of rising downside risks. —Virginia cattle producers confront drought, risk costs, and land pressures ahead of Beef ExpoIndustry leaders warn that weather stress, expensive insurance tools, and competing land uses are shaping decisions at a critical moment for herd rebuilding As producers gather for the Virginia Beef Expo at the Rockingham County Fairgrounds, industry concerns are converging around a volatile mix of weather, market risk, and long-term land use pressures. In an interview ahead of the event, Brandon Reeves, executive director of the Virginia Cattlemen’s Association, outlined the most pressing issues facing cattle producers in Virginia and across the U.S. •Drought threatens herd rebuilding momentum. Reeves emphasized that persistent dryness in Virginia mirrors broader national conditions, raising concerns about forage availability and pasture health. Drought has historically been one of the most significant constraints on cattle expansion, as limited grazing forces producers to reduce herd sizes or rely on costly supplemental feed. The U.S. cattle industry is currently in the early stages of rebuilding after years of contraction driven by earlier drought cycles, particularly across the Plains. However, prolonged dry conditions can quickly reverse that progress. Without adequate pasture, producers are less likely to retain heifers for breeding — a key step in expanding the national cowherd — delaying recovery and keeping beef supplies tight. Of note: Virginia farmers are gaining access to federal disaster assistance after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins approved drought disaster designations covering 24 localities across the state. The primary disaster areas — Brunswick, Greensville, and Southampton counties — are now eligible for direct support through the Farm Service Agency (FSA), including access to emergency loan programs. Additional counties and cities across Virginia qualify as contiguous disaster areas, expanding eligibility statewide due to the geographic spread of drought conditions. The assistance centers on FSA emergency loans, which are issued on a case-by-case basis depending on each producer’s financial situation and operational losses. Eligible farmers have up to eight months from the date of designation to apply. The designations were triggered by sustained drought severity, with impacted regions experiencing either severe drought (D2) conditions for at least eight consecutive weeks or escalating to extreme (D3) or exceptional (D4) drought levels, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. These thresholds reflect significant stress on crops and pasture, reinforcing concerns about production losses and broader impacts on the state’s agricultural sector. • High cattle prices collide with costly risk protection. Record-high cattle prices, while boosting revenues, have created a paradox: risk management tools are becoming prohibitively expensive. Reeves pointed specifically to Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance, a widely used federal program designed to protect producers against price declines. Because LRP premiums are tied to market prices and volatility, today’s elevated price environment has pushed those premiums to record levels. For many operators — particularly stocker cattle producers who buy and grow animals before resale — the cost of coverage now exceeds expected profit margins. This dynamic is forcing producers into difficult decisions: either pay high premiums and lock in potential losses, or forgo protection and remain exposed to sudden market downturns. Reeves warned that if cattle markets were to fall sharply — similar to prior cycles — the lack of widespread risk coverage could amplify financial stress across the sector. •Market volatility driven by global and domestic shocks. Beyond price levels, volatility itself is a growing concern. Reeves pointed to a combination of geopolitical and biological risks, including the ongoing Iran conflict, processing disruptions, and the spread of New World screwworm, as key drivers of uncertainty. Cattle futures have experienced sharper swings as price limits expand alongside higher valuations, increasing the potential for rapid gains — and losses. While tight cattle supplies are fundamentally supportive of prices, producers remain exposed to factors far outside their control, from export disruptions to disease outbreaks and plant closures. This environment makes planning more difficult, particularly for operations with narrow margins or significant exposure to feed and input costs. •Land use pressures intensify at the state level. In Virginia, structural pressures on farmland are adding another layer of concern. Reeves highlighted growing competition for agricultural land from utility-scale solar development, data center expansion, and suburban growth. As land values rise and alternative uses become more lucrative, cattle producers face increasing financial pressure to keep acreage in production. In many cases, today’s high cattle prices are not simply beneficial — they are necessary to justify continued agricultural use of land. The long-term implication is a potential reduction in available pasture and grazing land, which could further constrain herd expansion and shift the geography of cattle production. A pivotal moment for producers. Taken together, these challenges underscore a critical moment for the cattle industry. Strong prices and tight supplies offer opportunity, but drought risk, high input costs, and structural pressures are complicating decision-making at both the farm and policy levels. As Reeves suggested, addressing affordability of risk management tools and maintaining access to productive farmland may prove just as important as market fundamentals in determining the pace — and sustainability — of the next cattle cycle. —Cartel influence touches Mexico’s cattle sector but falls short of industry controlExtortion, smuggling, and laundering activities intersect with ranching, while formal beef production and processing remain largely regulated and independent Mexico’s powerful criminal organizations have a presence in the country’s rural economy, but their role in the beef sector is best understood as indirect and uneven rather than dominant. While cartel activity does intersect with cattle production in certain regions, there is little evidence that organized crime groups control the formal beef production or processing industry, particularly at the large-scale, export-oriented level tied to U.S. markets. In many parts of rural Mexico, ranchers operate under pressure from organized crime groups that demand protection payments or engage in theft and intimidation. This dynamic mirrors cartel involvement in other agricultural sectors and reflects broader territorial control strategies rather than a targeted effort to run livestock businesses. The result is a layer of coercion imposed on producers, which can raise costs and disrupt operations without fundamentally altering ownership or management of cattle enterprises. Beyond extortion, there are documented cases of illicit activity involving cattle itself. Criminal networks have been linked to cattle smuggling, including cross-border movements that raise concerns about disease transmission and biosecurity. There are also instances of so-called “narco-ranching,” where cattle operations are used as a vehicle for money laundering or as a supplementary income stream. However, these activities tend to be fragmented and opportunistic, not a central pillar of cartel finances. Cartels have also exploited livestock supply chains for logistical purposes. Authorities have identified cases in which livestock trailers were used to transport narcotics, underscoring how existing agricultural infrastructure can be leveraged for illicit trade. These practices reflect tactical use of the sector rather than systemic control over it. Meanwhile, Mexico’s formal beef production and processing industry operates within a structured and regulated framework, particularly for exports. Facilities that ship beef to the United States are subject to inspection, traceability requirements, and sanitary controls that make large-scale cartel penetration difficult. This regulatory environment has helped insulate the core of the industry from the kind of direct control seen in some illicit agricultural markets. The overall picture is one of contrast. Mexico’s beef industry remains a legitimate, organized sector integrated into global supply chains, while cartel involvement is largely parasitic, exerting pressure from the outside or exploiting gaps where they exist. The degree of impact varies by region, with areas facing stronger cartel presence experiencing more disruption, but the national industry itself continues to function independently of organized crime control, according to analysts. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: U.S. equity futures are slightly lower on mixed geopolitical headlines since yesterday’s close. Overnight, Iran threatened to halt trade through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea if the U.S. Naval blockade of Hormuz continued, however the AP reported progress in ceasefire talks with a deal potential imminent. Two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Barr (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bowman (1:45 p.m. ET).
In Asia, Japan +0.4%. Hong Kong +0.3%. China flat. India +1.6%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
The U.S. dollar has surrendered most of its Iran war–driven gains as a tentative ceasefire boosted demand for riskier currencies, though strong appetite for U.S. assets and diminishing expectations for rate cuts are expected to limit further downside.
—Equities yesterday: The tech-heavy Nasdaq has put together a 10-day streak of gains, its longest such run since November 2021.
| Equity Index | Closing Price April 14 | Point Difference from April 13 | % Difference from April 13 |
| Dow | 48,535.99 | +317.74 | +0.7% |
| Nasdaq | 23,639.08 | +455.35 | +2.0% |
| S&P 500 | 6,967.38 | +81.14 | +1.2% |
—Bank earnings signal economic resilience. Bank of America posted strong quarterly results, reporting a 17% year-over-year jump in profits to $8.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its trading and investment banking divisions. Chief executive Brian Moynihan emphasized that “solid consumer spending” continues to support a “resilient” U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also exceeded expectations, with its results lifted by strong trading revenue.
—Trump escalates pressure campaign on Fed leadership
Legal probe, Senate resistance, and succession fight inject fresh uncertainty into markets
President Donald Trump is intensifying his confrontation with Jerome Powell, raising new concerns about Federal Reserve independence just as geopolitical tensions begin to ease in financial markets. In a televised interview, Trump said he wants Powell out when his term as chair expires May 15 — and warned he would move to fire him if he refuses to step aside.
The comments come as the Senate prepares to consider Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to lead the central bank. Warsh’s path to confirmation is already uncertain, with key Republicans signaling opposition amid an ongoing federal investigation tied to the Fed.
At the center of the dispute is a Justice Department probe into renovations at the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. Prosecutors, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, escalated tensions this week with an unannounced visit to a Fed construction site — an episode that underscores mounting legal pressure on Powell. Trump has publicly backed the investigation, despite a recent federal court ruling that found no evidence of criminal wrongdoing beyond political disagreements.
Powell, for his part, has indicated he may remain at the Fed while the investigation continues, setting up a potential constitutional and institutional clash. His outside counsel, Robert Hur, accused prosecutors of attempting to sidestep judicial limits after earlier subpoenas were blocked.
Meanwhile, Senate resistance is emerging as a major obstacle to Trump’s plans. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has vowed to block Warsh’s nomination — and any additional Fed appointments — until the investigation concludes, a stance backed by Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.) has offered a more cautious timeline, suggesting the Justice Department could wrap up its work within weeks.
The unfolding standoff — combining legal scrutiny, political brinkmanship, and uncertainty over Fed leadership — is injecting a new layer of risk into markets, particularly around the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and interest rates.
| AG MARKETS |
—NOPA March crush seen hitting record high amid strong margins and capacity strain
Maintenance downtime, weaker oil yields, and shifting trade flows complicate otherwise bullish processing outlook
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report another historically large soybean crush for March when it releases member data Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. CDT, with survey estimates pointing to continued strength in domestic processing demand, according to Zachary Davis of Nesvick Trading Group.
Consensus estimates place March crush at 230.0 million bushels, within a range of 223.2 to 235.6 million. A result near the average would mark a 10.2% increase from February’s 208.8 million bushels and an 18.2% gain from March 2025’s 194.5 million — setting a new all-time monthly record.
However, Davis notes that the underlying daily processing pace tells a more nuanced story. February’s daily crush rate of 7.46 million bushels was a record and implied even higher throughput potential for March, but seasonal maintenance and unplanned downtime likely trimmed total output. An estimated 5–6 million bushels of capacity was lost during the month, with downtime expected to accelerate into April and May ahead of the heavy August turnaround period.
The broader 2025/26 marketing year continues to reflect exceptionally strong crush demand. Every month from October through February exceeded the five-year maximum, driven by robust cash crush margins that have incentivized processors to prioritize domestic throughput over exports. As a result, cumulative U.S. soybean export inspections have lagged sharply at 31.5 million metric tons compared to 42.1 million a year ago.
Additional capacity is also entering the system. A new soybean processing facility in Gibson City, Illinois contributed roughly 1.1 million bushels of incremental crush during March, further supporting elevated volumes.
Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks are expected to rise to 2.173 billion pounds, up from 2.080 billion in February and 45.1% above last year’s 1.498 billion. Despite the build in inventories, Davis highlights a key inefficiency emerging in the system — weaker oil yields. Typically, oil recovery improves as soybeans temper longer before processing, but the current environment of maximum throughput is limiting extraction efficiency. With plants running at near-peak capacity, flakes are spending less time in extractors, leaving more oil behind in soybean meal. Combined with lower oil recovery rates from the 2025/26 crop, this dynamic is effectively leaving value on the table. That tradeoff — maximizing throughput versus optimizing extraction — is becoming a key constraint. While strong margins continue to encourage aggressive processing, physical and operational limits are preventing facilities from pushing even harder, particularly as maintenance requirements loom larger in the coming months.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price April 14 | Change from April 13 |
| Corn | July | $4.52 1/2 | +1 1/2 cents |
| Soybeans | July | $11.72 3/4 | -4 3/4 cents |
| Soybean Meal | July | $327.30 | -$1.60 |
| Soybean Oil | July | 66.22 cents | -14 points |
| SRW Wheat | July | $6.01 1/4 | +10 cents |
| HRW Wheat | July | $6.36 1/4 | +19 3/4 cents |
| Spring Wheat | September | $6.68 1/4 | +12 3/4 cents |
| Cotton | July | 76.52 cents | -11 points |
| Live Cattle | June | $251.425 | +$2.90 |
| Feeder Cattle | May | $374.85 | +$2.025 |
| Lean Hogs | June | $102.45 | -$0.675 |
| FERTILIZER |
—Fertilizer tightness reflects global disruption more than pure supply shortfall
Energy shocks, trade bottlenecks, and delayed capacity expansion point to greater risk for the 2027 crop year
The fertilizer situation in the U.S. is increasingly being described as a supply problem, but the reality is more complex. While supplies are tight and availability has become more uncertain, particularly for nitrogen-based products, the issue is not simply a lack of production capacity. Instead, the current strain reflects a broader combination of global energy shocks, geopolitical disruptions, and fragile supply chains that are limiting the flow of fertilizer into the U.S. market at affordable prices.
In the near term, the U.S. is experiencing clear signs of supply stress. Farmers are facing reduced availability of key nutrients such as urea, alongside sharply higher prices that have risen significantly since the onset of the Iran conflict and the disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. remains structurally dependent on imports for a meaningful share of its fertilizer needs, particularly nitrogen products, and that exposure has become more pronounced as global flows have been interrupted or redirected to higher-paying markets. At the same time, fertilizer production is heavily dependent on natural gas, meaning elevated energy prices are constraining output globally and raising costs even for domestic producers.
Despite these pressures, the U.S. is not fundamentally short of fertilizer production capacity. Domestic production of nitrogen and phosphate remains relatively strong compared to many other regions, supported by historically competitive natural gas costs. However, the system operates with limited inventory buffers and relies heavily on just-in-time logistics, leaving it vulnerable to sudden disruptions. As a result, even modest interruptions in global supply chains can translate quickly into tighter availability and higher prices at the farm level.
The timing of the current disruption is especially important. While many producers had already secured inputs for the 2026 crop year, the ongoing strain on global supply chains raises more significant concerns for 2027. Inventories are being drawn down, replenishment is becoming more uncertain, and persistent disruptions could shift the market from a temporary shock into a more structural imbalance. Early indications suggest farmers are already adjusting planting decisions, with some shifting acreage away from fertilizer-intensive crops such as corn toward soybeans in response to elevated input costs.
Efforts to expand U.S. fertilizer production are underway, but they are unlikely to provide meaningful relief in the near term. Several new ammonia projects, including those supported by federal financing, are expected to come online later in the decade, and there is growing interest in “green ammonia” production that relies on renewable energy rather than natural gas. Meanwhile, policymakers are increasingly framing fertilizer as a national security issue, with discussions around reshoring production and strengthening supply chain resilience. However, most of these initiatives will not materially impact supply before the latter part of the decade, leaving the 2027 crop year exposed to current market dynamics.
Globally, the outlook varies by nutrient but remains fragile overall. Nitrogen markets are the most vulnerable due to their dependence on natural gas and exposure to geopolitical disruptions, particularly in the Middle East and Europe. Phosphate supplies are somewhat more stable but still constrained by concentrated production and logistical challenges. Potash, by contrast, is relatively well supplied and is not currently a major source of concern. Even so, fertilizer markets are interconnected, and disruptions in one segment can ripple across the entire system.
Ultimately, the fertilizer challenge facing U.S. agriculture is best understood as a system-wide issue rather than a simple supply deficit. Production capacity exists, but the ability to deliver that supply reliably depends on energy markets, geopolitical stability, and global trade flows. As those factors remain uncertain, the risk is that today’s tightness evolves into a more persistent constraint, with the greatest impact likely to be felt in the 2027 crop year rather than the current season.
| FARMER AID |
—Congress weighs farm aid amid tight margins and legislative gridlock
Disaster relief and financial assistance likely, but timing and legislative vehicle remain uncertain as Farm Bill 2.0 stalls
The odds that Congress will approve additional agricultural disaster aid and farmer financial assistance in 2026 are moderately high, though far from certain, as lawmakers balance mounting pressure from farm country against fiscal constraints and a crowded legislative calendar. There is broad bipartisan recognition that producers are facing elevated input costs, weather-related losses, and trade disruptions, creating momentum for relief. However, the path forward is less about whether aid is needed and more about how it can move through Congress.
A standalone agriculture relief bill remains unlikely in the current environment, given narrow majorities in both chambers and limited appetite for opening a politically sensitive debate focused solely on farm aid. Instead, the most probable outcome is that any assistance will be attached to a larger, must-pass legislative vehicle. Lawmakers and committee staff are increasingly focused on supplemental appropriations as the leading option, particularly if broader disaster funding or economic support measures are assembled. This approach allows Congress to package agricultural aid alongside assistance for other sectors, making it more politically viable.
Another strong possibility is that farm aid could be included in a government funding measure or continuing resolution tied to avoiding a shutdown. Historically, these bills have served as vehicles for targeted relief when timing becomes urgent. Meanwhile, the long-delayed farm bill reauthorization remains a less immediate path. Although committees have advanced proposals for what is expected to become the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, deep divisions over nutrition funding and budget offsets continue to slow progress. With the current farm bill mostly extended through Sept. 30, 2026, there is less immediate pressure to finalize a comprehensive package, reinforcing expectations that near-term aid will move separately.
Any agricultural legislation that does advance — whether as part of a supplemental package or a broader funding bill — is likely to include a mix of disaster assistance, financial support, and structural policy adjustments. Disaster programs are expected to be a central component, with lawmakers considering more permanent or semi-permanent frameworks that would allow quicker deployment of aid rather than relying on repeated ad hoc congressional action. There is also growing interest in expanding eligibility to cover a wider range of producers, including specialty crop operations and those affected by nontraditional disasters such as pests or disease outbreaks.
Financial assistance provisions are likely to focus on improving access to credit and strengthening farm balance sheets. This could include higher loan limits for operating and ownership loans, as well as efforts to streamline approval processes within USDA lending programs. Lawmakers are also expected to revisit elements of the farm safety net, including crop insurance and commodity programs, to better reflect current cost structures and market risks.
The range of farmer relief being discussed in Washington is largely centered between $10 billion and $15 billion, with that band emerging as the most politically realistic for near-term action. A $10 billion level is widely viewed as the baseline, reflecting recent assistance tied to low commodity prices and serving as a starting point for new proposals. Discussions have extended into the $10 billion to $17 billion range, particularly for targeted support to row crop producers and trade-impacted sectors. The most frequently cited figure now is around $15 billion, which appears to be the leading benchmark in congressional negotiations. That level aligns with proposals that would split funding between row crops and specialty agriculture.
For context, the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program sits near the middle of this range and is shaping expectations for a follow-on package. Larger totals are possible but would likely only occur if farm aid is included in a broader disaster or emergency spending bill.
Meanwhile, conservation and working lands funding is expected to remain a priority, particularly as policymakers look to maintain and integrate funding streams established in recent legislation. Risk management tools, including dairy and crop insurance programs, could see targeted enhancements, while marketing assistance programs are likely to be protected to ensure continuity even during funding disruptions.
Beyond immediate relief, there is increasing discussion around longer-term structural changes aimed at reducing the need for repeated emergency aid packages. These include establishing standing disaster assistance mechanisms, improving supply chain infrastructure, and expanding rural development support to strengthen resilience across the agricultural economy.
Despite this momentum, several political constraints will shape the final outcome. Budget pressures remain significant, particularly as lawmakers debate how to offset new spending. At the same time, divisions between farm-state priorities and nutrition program funding continue to complicate broader agricultural legislation. Election-year dynamics further narrow the legislative window, increasing the likelihood that Congress will rely on pragmatic, must-pass vehicles rather than comprehensive reforms in the near term.
The most realistic outlook is that Congress will deliver some form of agricultural disaster and financial aid in 2026, but through an indirect route. Assistance is most likely to be attached to a supplemental appropriations package or a government funding bill, allowing it to move ahead of a full farm bill reauthorization. While comprehensive reform remains on the table longer term, near-term action will likely focus on targeted relief, expanded credit access, and incremental improvements to disaster programs as lawmakers respond to growing pressure from the agricultural sector.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Wednesday: Oil rises as Hormuz bottlenecks persist despite ceasefire hopes
Restricted flows and U.S. enforcement actions outweigh optimism over renewed diplomacy with Iran
Oil prices moved higher as ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to constrain global supply, offsetting growing expectations that the U.S. and Iran could resume negotiations to end the conflict. Prices climbed more than 1%, with Brent crude near $96 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $92, recovering from sharp losses in the prior session.
Forty-five days after Iran effectively shut the strait — a chokepoint that typically handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments — traffic remains severely limited despite a two-week ceasefire. Vessel crossings are still only a fraction of pre-war levels, underscoring the persistence of supply constraints even as diplomatic efforts intensify.
Markets initially rallied on optimism surrounding potential talks, with the S&P 500 nearing record highs. However, sentiment has since cooled as logistical realities and military actions complicate the outlook. The Trump administration signaled talks with Tehran could resume, yet simultaneously enforced a naval blockade that has effectively halted maritime trade with Iran, including stopping tankers from departing its ports.
Analysts note that even a near-term diplomatic breakthrough would not immediately resolve supply disruptions. Backlogs across oil, gas, fertilizer, and other commodities are expected to take time to normalize, keeping upward pressure on prices. Refiners have already turned to alternative sources, driving premiums sharply higher — highlighted by a record $22.80 per barrel premium for U.S. crude delivered into Europe.
Further tightening risks are emerging from policy decisions. U.S. officials indicated sanctions waivers on Iranian and Russian oil will not be renewed, potentially removing additional barrels from the global market. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains over Iran’s strategic intentions, with some analysts suggesting Tehran could maintain restricted flows even after a deal to preserve leverage.
Attention now turns to inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, with expectations for a modest build in crude stocks but declines in gasoline and distillates. Early industry data from the American Petroleum Institute pointed to a third consecutive weekly increase in U.S. crude inventories, adding another layer of complexity to an already volatile market.
—Tuesday: Oil markets ease on diplomacy hopes despite persistent supply strains
Prices pull back as traders weigh potential Strait reopening against historic disruptions and fragile fundamentals
Oil markets moved lower as sentiment shifts toward a more constructive geopolitical outlook, with traders increasingly betting that negotiations could de-escalate tensions and eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a vital corridor for global crude and refined product flows. The selloff reflects growing confidence that improved supply conditions may be on the horizon if diplomacy gains traction.
Brent crude fell $4.57, 4.6%, to settle at $94.79 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $7.80, 7.9%, to $91.20. The decline follows gains in the previous session, when prices rose on news of expanded U.S. military actions in the region.
Meanwhile, underlying fundamentals remain notably tight. The effective closure of the strait, combined with continued attacks on regional energy infrastructure, has removed a significant volume of supply from global markets, pushing disruptions to historically elevated levels. This has left the market in a delicate balance, caught between optimism over diplomatic progress and the reality of constrained physical flows.
The trajectory of negotiations remains the central driver. While talks are expected to continue, uncertainty around both timing and outcomes persists. Market participants caution that without a meaningful and sustained restoration of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, supply pressures could quickly reassert themselves and reverse the recent price decline.
Additional downside risks to supply remain in play. The expanded U.S. naval presence in the region and ongoing threats from Iran targeting critical infrastructure continue to underscore the fragility of the current situation and the potential for renewed escalation.
Meanwhile, updated forecasts point to a softer outlook for both supply and demand growth, as elevated energy prices and prolonged geopolitical instability weigh on global economic activity.
Overall, while easing tensions have prompted a pullback in prices, oil markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with the pace of any supply restoration through the Strait of Hormuz likely to determine near-term direction.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
— Analysts continue to predict Democratic takeover of House following midterm elections, with some seeing tighter race for Senate control
Checks with several election-year watchers this week continue to signal they believe House Democrats will control that chamber following midterm elections. Some see a five-member spread favoring Democrats.
Regarding the Senate, the Cook Political Report says “With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor. But due to the difficulty of the map, winning back a majority still remains a tall order. The GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber. However, that outlook could change in the coming months. Right now, we see the likeliest outcome as a one to three seat Democratic pickup — still just out of reach of the four seats the party needs to reclaim the majority.”
Senate race rating changes. The Cook Political Report this week changed four race ratings.
Senate:
North Carolina: Toss Up to Lean D
Georgia: Toss Up to Lean D
Ohio: Lean R to Toss Up
Nebraska: Solid R to Likely R
Some other analysts say it is too soon to say Ohio is a toss up. Most election watchers interviewed recently think the GOP at this stage is favored to retain control of Senate via a 51-49 outcome, but all acknowledge some races are tightening.
— If Democrats take the gavels: who would lead Congress’ Ag committees — and what would they do?
If Democrats sweep both chambers in the 2026 midterms, a vegan from New Jersey and a yet-to-be-determined House member would shape the next farm bill — but a returning Sherrod Brown could complicate the picture
If Democrats win both the House and Senate in November 2026, control of Congress’s powerful agriculture committees would shift — bringing new leaders, new priorities, and a dramatically different vision for American farm and food policy. The picture is complicated by the fact that both of the current Democratic ranking members are leaving their House seats to run for higher office, setting off a reshuffling with major consequences for the farm bill, nutrition programs, and rural America.
Senate Agriculture Committee: Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.)
The Senate Ag Committee’s top Democratic slot is currently held by Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota — but she is running for governor of Minnesota, which means she would leave the Senate if she wins as election experts predict. That opens the door for Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, currently next in line on the committee, to become chair if Democrats take the majority.
Booker would be a jarring departure from the Midwestern tradition that has long defined the committee’s Democratic leadership. A vegan who has consistently described the U.S. agriculture and food system as “broken,” he would become the first senator from the Northeast to hold the top spot on the panel in nearly 30 years. None of the three Democrats ahead of him in seniority — Michael Bennet of Colorado, Tina Smith of Minnesota, and Dick Durbin of Illinois — are running for re-election, clearing the path for Booker.
Booker’s policy priorities. Booker’s agricultural agenda would mark a sharp left turn from the bipartisan pragmatism that characterized the committee under Klobuchar and her predecessor, Debbie Stabenow. His priorities include:
• Reforming federal nutrition assistance to address food insecurity and expanding SNAP protections.
• Rolling back what he calls “hyper-concentration” in the agriculture industry, including legislation to place a moratorium on large, concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs).
• Expanding country-of-origin labeling for beef, pork, and poultry, and strengthening competition requirements under the Packers and Stockyards Act.
• Closing the “Generally Recognized as Safe” (GRAS) loophole that allows food manufacturers to self-certify their own ingredients — a priority he has championed well before the Make America Healthy Again movement took up the issue.
• Reforming federal checkoff programs, which he has long argued benefit large agribusiness at the expense of independent farmers.
• Investing in local and regional food systems as an alternative to industrial-scale agriculture.
Booker’s ascension would be notable and potentially contentious with production agriculture. His views on CAFOs, consolidation, and checkoff programs put him at odds with much of the traditional farm lobby. However, supporters point to his focus on food safety, nutrition equity, and anti-corporate consolidation as issues with genuine bipartisan appeal in an era of MAHA-influenced politics.
The Sherrod Brown wildcard: a seniority complication
A potentially significant wrinkle: former Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio is running in the 2026 special election to reclaim his old Senate seat, now held by Republican Jon Husted. If Brown wins and Democrats take the majority, he would return to a chamber he served in for 18 years — but as a freshman senator. Senate seniority resets when a member leaves and returns, meaning Brown would not automatically leapfrog Booker or others who served continuously.
During his previous Senate tenure, Brown was notably the only Ohio senator in half a century to serve on the Senate Ag Committee, where he helped write multiple farm bills and championed conservation and childhood hunger programs. He would almost certainly seek to return to the committee — and Democrats could choose to place him there through negotiation — but the chairmanship would likely remain Booker’s by right of continuous seniority.
The contrast between the two men is sharp. Brown is a staunch critic of free trade, a champion of Rust Belt manufacturing and farm workers, and a populist who has won repeatedly in a state trending heavily Republican. Booker is a food system reformer focused on nutrition equity, corporate consolidation, and the intersection of agriculture with public health. Their co-existence on a Democratic-majority Agriculture Committee — and the question of who shapes the committee’s agenda — would be one of the most closely watched dynamics in a new Democratic Senate.
It is worth noting that Brown faces an uphill battle in Ohio, which supported Donald Trump by 11 points in 2024. Early polling shows him trailing Husted by roughly six percentage points. He is nonetheless considered Democrats’ best available candidate in the state and a serious top-of-ticket presence for the party.
House Ag Committee: a leadership race underway
On the House side, current ranking member Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota is giving up her seat to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Tina Smith. Craig, who made history as the first openly LGBTQ+ person to serve as ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee, has said she will serve out the remainder of her term through the end of 2026 — but whoever succeeds her will inherit the chairmanship if Democrats take the House majority.
The race to succeed Craig is already taking shape. Three names are emerging:
Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) — early frontrunner
The current vice ranking member on the House Ag Committee, Brown is considered the early frontrunner. A member of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), her candidacy also carries institutional weight: the CBC is eager to reclaim the top Agriculture Committee post, which it lost when Craig defeated Rep. David Scott of Georgia in 2024. Brown has said she is “absolutely” eyeing the position and is actively making her pitch to colleagues.
Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) — the veteran challenger
Costa, a Blue Dog Democrat from the agriculture-heavy San Joaquin Valley, was passed over when Craig beat him for the ranking member spot in 2024. Now 73, he has confirmed interest in making another run and has begun informal conversations with colleagues. Costa brings deep agricultural expertise and a long track record of bipartisan dealmaking — qualities that could prove valuable in a committee where farm-state Republicans will need to be courted.
Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Ct.) — the dark horse
Hayes, also a CBC member and more senior than Brown, is another potential contender. Some CBC members had pushed Hayes to run in 2024 when Scott stepped aside. She has been coy about her interest, telling reporters, “I’m on the committee” and noting she hasn’t made any decisions. Hayes is simultaneously seen as a possible candidate to lead Democrats on the Education and Workforce Committee, which could pull her away from the Agriculture race.
What a Democratic House Agriculture majority would focus on
Regardless of who wins the House chairmanship, a Democratic-led committee would share a core set of priorities shaped by the battles of the current Congress:
•Restoring SNAP funding: Reversing the deep cuts made in the Republican reconciliation bill would be a top priority. Craig and her colleagues have already introduced legislation to repeal those cuts, which they argue have “destroyed” the traditional farm bill coalition and could end the era of bipartisan farm legislation.
•Farm relief and safety net expansion: Democrats have pushed for additional billions in farm financial assistance, delayed implementation of SNAP cost shifts to states, and higher loan limits for struggling producers.
•Trade and tariff relief: Democratic leaders in both chambers have made rolling back Trump-era tariffs — which they argue have raised input costs and cost American farmers export markets — a central demand.
•Conservation funding: Democrats have consistently fought to protect Inflation Reduction Act conservation investments that Republicans sought to redirect or eliminate.
•Agricultural labor reform: Both Klobuchar and Craig have identified ag worker visa reform as a rare area of potential bipartisan agreement, with some conservative members of the House expressing interest in a workable legal pathway for farm labor.
Note: All scenarios assume Democratic majorities in both chambers following the November 2026 midterm elections. Committee assignments and leadership selections would be finalized in January 2027.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Late season snow for the Cascades and northern Rockies but April heat for the Mid-Atlantic… …A slight risk of severe thunderstorms into tonight over from the southern Plains through the Midwest and into the lower Great Lakes… …A slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday across the interior Northeast.
—Severe weather delays U.S. planting as plains drought intensifies
Storms, temperature swings, and fire risks dominate near-term outlook before a late-month pattern shift brings relief
Severe weather is expected to remain a major concern across the Corn Belt over the next five days, with conditions peaking Friday following recent widespread hail events. Heavy rainfall is forecast to persist, further delaying planting progress across key growing regions before a brief window of drier weather emerges from Sunday through Tuesday.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will hold across much of the region through Friday, but a sharp cold front is set to sweep into the northern Plains by Saturday, spreading across areas west of the Mississippi River and advancing eastward into early next week. This cooldown will be temporary, however, as forecasters anticipate a strong warming trend developing between April 21 and April 24.
Meanwhile, conditions in the western Hard Red Winter wheat belt remain increasingly concerning. The region is expected to see another 9 to 10 days with little to no meaningful precipitation, worsening already dry conditions. Coupled with forecasted high winds on Friday and again around April 22, the outlook points to elevated fire danger and accelerating deterioration in crop conditions.
Looking further ahead, a significant shift in the weather pattern is anticipated in the 11- to 15-day window. This change is expected to bring much-needed rainfall to the drought-stricken Plains while also establishing a wetter regime across the Mid-South and Southeast, offering potential relief from ongoing dryness.
