Trump: Iran Talks Will Resume, But Threatens Power Plants and Bridges If No Deal Reached
Greer in Mexico | Rollins travels to Arizona | Tariff refunds | Food price update
| LINKS |
Link: Weekend Updates, April 18: Iran Reimposes Control Over
Strait of Hormuz Until U.S. Ends Blockade of Iranian Ports
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 17
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 17
Topics discussed during podcast:
—Markets
1. USDA NASS to hold April 22 Data Users’ Meeting in KC
2. Updates on war with Iran
3. Energy price
4. Gold price
5. Fertilizer: Rollins comments at House hearing
6. China confirms two cases of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD)
7. USTR Greer on China and May 14-15 Trump/Xi Summit
8. NWS: Rollins in Texas
9. Rollins testified before House Ag Approps subcommittee
10. Farm Bill 2.0 update
11. U.S. farmer aid, current and potential more ahead
12. USMCA: USTR Greer in Mexico Monday for meeting
13. Wasserman on midterm elections
| The Week Ahead: April 19, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Hormuz flashpoint escalates as Iran tightens control and U.S. counters with mine-clearing operations: Iran’s IRGC moves to restrict Strait of Hormuz traffic and fires warning shots as the U.S. responds with naval operations and mine-clearing, while President Donald Trump pushes last-minute diplomacy through Pakistan but threatens major strikes if negotiations fail.
— President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has sunk to a new low: A new NBC News Decision Desk poll shows approval at 37%, with economic concerns and the Iran war weighing heavily, raising midterm risks for Republicans if the trend continues.
WASHINGTON THIS WEEK
— Washington week ahead: Iran war tensions, tariff refund implementation, Fed leadership uncertainty, and a high-stakes Virginia election converge to shape policy, markets, and political control ahead of the midterms.
KEY HEARINGS & EVENTS
— Budget battles, Fed nomination, and trade agenda dominate: Kevin Warsh’s Fed confirmation hearing, USDA budget scrutiny, and USTR trade testimony highlight a packed week as lawmakers grapple with inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical fallout.
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS
— Weekly economic preview: Retail sales, PMIs, and consumer sentiment will test economic resilience as Iran-driven energy volatility shapes inflation expectations, while major corporate earnings add to market direction.
AG REPORTS
— Key USDA reports and global signals to drive ag markets the week of April 20: Crop progress, export demand, livestock data, and Friday’s Food Price Outlook will anchor a data-heavy week influencing supply, demand, and inflation signals across agriculture.
ENERGY REPORTS
— Energy week ahead: IEA outlooks, inventory data, major global summits, and futures expirations are set to drive volatility as markets track supply disruptions and demand signals tied to the Iran conflict.
TOP STORIES—Hormuz flashpoint escalates as Iran tightens control and U.S. counters with mine-clearing operationsIRGC clamps down on tanker traffic and internal divisions surface in Tehran, while President Trump signals diplomacy through Pakistan amid a fragile, time-limited ceasefire, but threatens to attack infrastructure unless Tehran takes a deal • Iran’s IRGC Navy declared the Strait of Hormuz closed except on Supreme Leader Khamenei’s order, blocked tankers including those from France, UK, Botswana, and Angola, and fired warning shots at vessels amid a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Internal Iranian tensions arose as the IRGC criticized Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for uncoordinated reopening announcements. •President Donald Trump accused Iran of ceasefire violations, deployed U.S. Navy unmanned underwater vehicles to clear Iranian sea mines, and rejected plans to seize Kharg Island while pursuing negotiations. • Trump says a U.S. delegation is heading to Pakistan for negotiations with Iran, with about two days remaining in the two countries’ tenuous ceasefire agreement. Tehran has not immediately confirmed the plans. Quotes of note: Trump on Sunday threatened to continue bombing Iran if they don’t accept the fair deal the U.S. will offer during negotiations that will take place in Pakistan on Monday. “Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it,” he said in a post on Truth Social. “They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be ‘the tough guy!’ We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” he added. —President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has sunk to a new lowAmericans express growing concerns about rising costs and the war with Iran, according to an NBC News Decision Desk poll Overall, 37% of adults approve of Trump’s performance as president, while 63% disapprove — including 50% who said they disapprove strongly — putting his job rating at the lowest point of his second term in NBC News Decision Desk polling (link). Two-thirds of respondents also disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy and the Iran conflict.While the president still commands the overwhelming support of his base, Republican support softened compared to the last Decision Desk poll conducted in late January and early February. In the new poll, 83% of Republicans gave Trump a positive approval rating, down 4 points from earlier this year. And the share of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump’s job performance has dropped 6 points, from 58% to 52%. Impact on midterm elections? David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report late last week during a presentation said if Trump’s approval number dropped below 40%, that would raise the odds of Democrats capturing Senate control in midterm elections. He currently thinks the Democrats will regain control of the House. |
| —WASHINGTON THIS WEEK |
—Washington week ahead: Iran war, tariff refunds, and high-stakes political calendar.
Washington enters the week of April 20 facing a convergence of geopolitical risk, domestic policy fallout, and high-stakes political developments that could shape both markets and the U.S. policy outlook in the months ahead.
• The war with Iran remains the dominant backdrop, with fragile ceasefire dynamics and ongoing U.S. naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz continuing to influence energy markets, inflation expectations, and broader economic sentiment. Last week, President Donald Trump signaled progress toward a potential agreement, including Iranian commitments tied to nuclear activity and commercial shipping, but the situation continues to facilitate, with enforcement questions and disruptions to maritime traffic still unresolved.
• Meanwhile, the economic implications of the conflict are feeding directly into Washington’s policy debates. Elevated energy prices linked to the conflict have reinforced concerns about inflation persistence, placing additional scrutiny on monetary policy leadership at a critical moment. Against that backdrop, Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will testify Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee. The hearing comes just weeks before Powell’s term expires May 15 and is expected to focus heavily on Warsh’s views on inflation control, balance sheet policy, and the Fed’s response to geopolitical shocks. His confirmation path remains uncertain, with political tensions and external pressures adding complexity to the process.
• Tariff refunds. The Trump administration is moving to address the fallout from a major Supreme Court ruling that found the president violated federal law in imposing sweeping global tariffs. U.S. Customs and Border Protection is set to begin refunding $166 billion in duties collected from American businesses, a process that is expected to have significant implications for trade flows, corporate balance sheets, and federal revenue. The rollout of these refunds, alongside the launch of administrative systems to process them, marks one of the most immediate economic policy developments of the week and could inject liquidity back into sectors that have been strained by tariff costs, including agriculture, manufacturing, and retail.
• On Capitol Hill, lawmakers are juggling a crowded agenda that intersects with both economic and geopolitical developments. Congressional committees are expected to continue oversight of trade policy, Federal Reserve leadership, and the administration’s handling of the Iran conflict, while also preparing for upcoming legislative battles tied to the farm bill, budget negotiations, and trade enforcement authorities. The interaction between tariff policy, inflation risks, and agricultural input costs remains a central theme, particularly as lawmakers assess the downstream impacts on producers facing elevated fertilizer, fuel, and transportation expenses.
• On the ag front, farm-state lawmakers continue to talk out loud about another potential farmer aid package. The price tag keeps growing, with House Ag Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) now at $20 billion. But the closer we get to midterm elections, the harder it will be to get congressional and party leadership agreement on the fate of another multibillion-dollar package and what legislative vehicle to attach any aid package on.
Meanwhile, the same lingering ag sector issues remain on this lethargic Congress’ agenda: Farm Bill 2.0 and the inability to date to come up with legislative language regarding permanent E15. Add in the usual snail-like pace that appropriators take to get funding for the next fiscal year passed (if they do without again kicking the can down the road with stopgap spending measures).
• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is headed to Arizona this week, amid speculation she may talk about an eventual phased reopening of the U.S./Mexico border. Link to possible details of the eventual phased-in border reopening plan that will likely initially focus on Arizona entry locations because they are the farthest away from Mexico.
• On the trade policy front, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is in Mexico on Monday to confer with his trade counterparts (and Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum) about the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement.
• Political dynamics are intensifying at the state level with national implications. A closely watched special election in Virginia on Tuesday could reshape the redistricting landscape ahead of the midterm elections. If voters approve the measure, Democrats could gain as many as four additional U.S. House seats, shifting the balance of power in a narrowly divided chamber. The potential candidacy of Olivia Troye, a former adviser to Vice President Mike Pence who has aligned with Democrats, underscores the broader political realignment underway and adds another layer of intrigue to the race.
• Wednesday’s observance of Earth Day is also expected to draw attention to environmental and energy policy debates, particularly as the Iran conflict underscores the continued importance of global oil flows and energy security. Policymakers are likely to highlight competing priorities between climate goals and the need to stabilize energy markets, a tension that has become more pronounced amid the recent surge in oil prices and supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
Taken together, the week ahead reflects a Washington environment where foreign policy, economic management, and domestic politics are tightly intertwined. Developments in the Iran war will continue to set the tone for markets and policy responses, while decisions on tariffs, monetary leadership, and redistricting could carry lasting implications for the U.S. economic and political landscape.
| —KEY HEARINGS & EVENTS |
—Budget battles, Fed nomination, and trade agenda dominate
Warsh confirmation hearing, USDA funding decisions, and Iran war fallout drive a packed policy calendar
•Mon., April 20: Budget kickoff, USDA nomination, and Iran war focus
The week begins with the House Appropriations Interior Subcommittee hearing on the FY 2027 budget with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, alongside a Senate Ag Committee markup vote on Glen Smith’s nomination for USDA undersecretary for rural development. Multiple Washington forums center on the Iran war and its regional and economic spillovers, underscoring continued geopolitical uncertainty.
•Tue., April 21: Warsh confirmation, major budget hearings, and agriculture scrutiny
The Senate Banking Committee holds a high-stakes hearing on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Federal Reserve, while Congress ramps up FY 2027 budget hearings across Energy and Health and Human Services with Cabinet-level testimony. The House Oversight Committee also examines “lawfare” against U.S. agriculture, adding a direct policy angle for the farm sector.
• Wed., April 22: USDA budget hearing & Trump trade agenda in focus
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins testifies before the Senate Appropriations Ag Subcommittee on the department’s FY 2027 budget, a central event for farm policy and spending priorities. Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer appears before the House Ways and Means Committee on the Trump administration’s 2026 trade policy agenda, alongside a full slate of additional Cabinet budget hearings across Treasury, Commerce, Energy, and HHS.
•Thur., April 23: Trade policy spotlight and USDA funding markup
Trade policy remains front and center as Greer testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on the administration’s agenda. The House Appropriations Subcommittee marks up the FY 2027 agriculture funding bill, a key step in shaping USDA spending. Additional federal meetings address food labeling, drug access, and energy supply issues.
• Fri., April 24: Global conflict and transportation policy
The week concludes with a conference on the Ukraine war at George Washington University, reflecting continued global security concerns. Domestically, the Surface Transportation Board convenes a meeting on improving passenger rail service and resolving freight-passenger conflicts, highlighting ongoing infrastructure and regulatory priorities.
| —ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
—Weekly economic preview: The trajectory of the U.S. economy will remain closely tied to developments in the Iran conflict and its influence on global energy markets.
The corporate earnings calendar will stay dense in the coming days, with major reports expected from Tesla, Intel, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, American Express, Procter & Gamble, and Lam Research.
On the economic front, the U.S. is set to release March retail sales data, with forecasts pointing to a 1.3% increase — the strongest gain in a year — signaling continued resilience in consumer spending. Flash S&P Global PMIs for April are also due, following prior readings that showed diverging impacts of the Iran war on manufacturing and services activity. Additional data releases include pending home sales, expected to rise 0.5%, February business inventories, which are projected to edge higher, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading on Friday.
Meanwhile, monetary policy will draw attention as Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress, where he is expected to outline his views on the appropriate size of the Fed’s balance sheet.
Tue., April 21
• Retail Sales | Business Inventories | Pending Home Sales Index | Earnings: Halliburton
Wed., April 22
• Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
Thur., April 23
• Jobless Claims | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | PMI Composite Flash | KC Fed Manufacturing | Earnings: Baker Hughes; NextEra; Dow
Fri., April 24
• Consumer Sentiment | Earnings: SLB; Eni
| —AG REPORTS |
—Key USDA reports and global signals to drive ag markets the week of April 20
Crop progress, export demand, livestock data, and Friday’s Food Price Outlook headline a data-heavy week for agriculture
The week of April 20 brings a dense slate of U.S. and global agricultural reports that will shape near-term market direction, with early-week crop and export indicators giving way to critical livestock, demand, and price outlook data by Friday.
The week begins Monday with USDA’s Crop Progress report, a cornerstone for tracking planting pace and early crop conditions across the Corn Belt, alongside AMS Export Inspections, which will provide a timely read on grain demand and shipment flows. Traders will also monitor Malaysia’s April 1–20 palm oil export data for signals on global vegetable oil demand and price direction, particularly as soybean oil markets remain sensitive to shifts in competing oils.
On Tuesday, attention shifts to broader supply fundamentals and international trade flows. USDA ERS releases on fruit, tree nuts, vegetables, and pulses will update specialty crop supply dynamics, while the European Union’s weekly grain and oilseed trade data will offer insight into global competition for U.S. exports, particularly in wheat and corn.
Midweek data on Wednesday centers on the livestock sector, with USDA NASS releasing annual Livestock Slaughter figures, as well as Broiler Hatchery and Milk Production reports. These will provide a deeper look at protein supply trends, herd dynamics, and production efficiency. Meanwhile, the Geneva Sugar Conference begins, drawing global attention to sugar supply, demand, and pricing trends that can influence broader soft commodity markets.
Thursday brings one of the most closely watched demand indicators of the week with USDA FAS Export Sales. This report will be key for gauging international buying interest in U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and shifting trade flows. Weekly Livestock Slaughter data will complement the earlier annual report, offering a more current snapshot of processing activity. Globally, the International Grains Council’s monthly grain market report will provide updated supply and demand estimates, while the Geneva Sugar Conference continues.
The week concludes Friday with a heavy set of USDA reports led by the ERS Food Price Outlook, a critical update on retail and wholesale food inflation trends that ties directly into consumer demand and policy discussions. Additional NASS reports on Poultry Slaughter, Dairy Products (annual), Cold Storage, and Peanut Prices will round out the supply picture, offering insight into protein inventories, dairy production trends, and specialty crop pricing. FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop conditions report will also be watched for signals on European production prospects.
Overall, the week combines near-term demand indicators, early-season crop progress, and key supply-side updates across livestock and dairy, culminating in Friday’s Food Price Outlook, which will help frame the broader inflation and demand narrative heading into late spring.
Mon., April 20
• AMS. Export Inspections ERS: US Bioenergy Statistics NASS: Chickens & Eggs | Crop Progress
• Malaysia’s April 1-20 palm oil exports
Tue., April 21
• ERS: Fruit and Tree Nuts Data | Vegetables and Pulses Data
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Wed., April 22
• NASS: Livestock Slaughter – Annual | Broiler Hatchery | Milk Production
• Geneva Sugar Conference, day 1
Thur., April 23
• FAS: Export Sales NASS: | Livestock Slaughter | Slaughter Weekly
• IGC grain market report
• Geneva Sugar Conference, day 2
Fri., April 24
• ERS: Food Price Outlook NASS: Poultry Slaughter | Dairy Products – Annual | Cold Storage | Peanut Prices
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions data
| —ENERGY REPORTS |
—Energy week ahead: Key reports and global conferences drive market focus
Inventory data, major summits, and futures expirations set the tone for oil, gas, and broader energy markets
The week of April 20 is packed with high-impact energy data releases and global conferences that will shape market direction across oil, natural gas, and refined products.
Early in the week, attention will center on the International Energy Agency’s Global Energy Review 2026, released Monday alongside the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, which runs through midweek and is expected to provide insight into demand trends and geopolitical risk tied to the Iran conflict.
On Tuesday, markets will begin positioning around supply signals with the American Petroleum Institute’s U.S. inventory report, while a heavy slate of international gatherings — including the Columbia Global Energy Summit in New York, the BNEF Summit, and multiple LNG and renewable energy conferences in Singapore — underscores the growing intersection of traditional energy markets and the energy transition. The expiration of May WTI futures the same day could add volatility to crude pricing.
Midweek, the focus shifts squarely to fundamentals with Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Status Report and Weekly Ethanol Production data, both key indicators for crude balances and biofuel demand. Additional insight into global storage dynamics will come from Genscape’s ARA inventory data, while energy investment discussions continue in Europe and Africa.
On Thursday, the EIA Natural Gas Report will be the primary driver for gas markets, complemented by international oil product stockpile data from Singapore, offering a read on Asian demand and refining activity.
The week concludes Friday with the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, a critical gauge of U.S. drilling activity and future supply, alongside Commitments of Traders data from both ICE and the CFTC, which will provide a snapshot of speculative positioning across crude and refined product markets. The expiration of ICE April gasoil futures may also contribute to end-of-week price movement.
Overall, the combination of dense data releases, expiring contracts, and high-level global energy forums is likely to keep volatility elevated, with traders closely watching for signals on supply disruptions, demand resilience, and the broader macro impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Mon., April 20
• FT Commodities Global Summit, Lausanne; runs through Wednesday | IEA Global Energy Review 2026 report | WTI CSOs for May expire
Tue., April 21
• API US inventory report | Renewable Energy Markets Asia 2026 conference, Singapore; runs through Wednesday | LNG Supplies for Asian Markets 2026 conference, Singapore; runs through Wednesday | Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin; runs through Wednesday | Columbia Global Energy Summit, New York City| BNEF Summit New York; runs through Wednesday | WTI May futures expire | Holidays: Brazil
Wed., April 22
• EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | Invest in African Energy conference, Paris; runs through Thursday | Handelsblatt Municipal Utilities conference, Berlin; runs through Thursday | Holidays: Israel
Thur., April 23
• EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | Holidays: Turkey
Fri., April 24
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count | ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | ICE April gasoil futures expire
