Iran Reimposes Control Over Strait of Hormuz Until U.S. Ends Blockade of Iranian Ports
What a phased reopening of U.S./Mexico border could entail
| LINKS |
Link: Rollins Signals Cautious Path to Reopening Southern Cattle Ports
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 17
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 17
Topics discussed during podcast:
—Markets
1. USDA NASS to hold April 22 Data Users’ Meeting in KC
2. Update on war with Iran
3. Energy price
4. Gold price
5. Fertilizer: Rollins comments at House hearing
6. China confirms two cases of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD)
7. USTR Greer on China and May 14-15 Trump/Xi Summit
8. NWS: Rollins in Texas
9. Rollins testified before House Ag Approps subcommittee
10. Farm Bill 2.0 update
11. U.S. farmer aid, current and potential more ahead
12. USMCA: USTR Greer in Mexico Monday for meeting
13. Wasserman on midterm elections
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April x, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Hormuz tensions and Lebanon strikes undercut Trump peace push: Iran’s renewed control over the Strait of Hormuz and continued regional strikes are stalling shipping flows and undermining fragile U.S./Iran negotiations, keeping global energy markets on edge.
— U.S. prepares global seizure of Iran-linked oil tankers: Washington is planning worldwide maritime interceptions of Tehran-linked vessels, marking a sharp escalation that could widen conflict risks and further disrupt oil trade.
— War damage to Gulf energy infrastructure could reach $58 billion: Repair costs are surging as supply chain constraints — not capital — emerge as the primary bottleneck, threatening prolonged disruptions to global energy investment and output.
— U.S. breaks ground on sterile fly facility to combat screwworm threat: USDA launches a major Texas biosecurity project while weighing a phased reopening of cattle imports from Mexico amid rising pest risks.
— Emergency moves on the Colorado River: Federal intervention to stabilize Lake Powell may avert hydropower collapse but intensifies downstream water shortages for agriculture and urban users.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities yesterday and weekly change: Major U.S. indices hit record highs with strong weekly gains, while oil declined sharply, gold reached new highs, and volatility eased after early-week spikes.
— Global currencies rally against the U.S. dollar: Broad-based currency strength — led by emerging markets — reflects weakening dollar momentum and shifting global macro dynamics.
AG MARKETS
— China pushes hog sector to cut capacity amid price slump: Beijing is pressuring producers to reduce sow herds and restructure the industry to stabilize prices amid persistent oversupply.
— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change: Grain markets were mixed with strength in wheat, while livestock futures declined and cotton posted notable weekly gains.
FARM POLICY
— House prepares floor action on Farm Bill 2.0 as Senate eyes near-term markup: Lawmakers are advancing bipartisan farm bill efforts, though SNAP cost-sharing and Senate revisions remain key hurdles.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Friday: Oil prices plunge as Hormuz reopening triggers rapid risk premium unwind: Ceasefire-driven shipping access sparked a sharp selloff, though markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical reversals.
— RFS Set 2 final rule reshapes biomass-based diesel outlook: EPA’s new mandates signal unprecedented growth in biofuels, driving structural shifts in feedstocks, production, and trade flows.
TRADE POLICY
— U.S./Canada trade rift deepens as Lutnick escalates rhetoric: Rising tensions and threats to revisit trade terms are increasing economic risks ahead of USMCA review talks.
— CBP prepares tariff refund portal launch amid $166 billion repayment push: Importers face a complex, documentation-heavy process as the government begins issuing large-scale tariff refunds.
FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY
— U.S. food waste declines for first time since pandemic surge: A modest drop in waste suggests progress, but the majority of surplus food still goes unused, highlighting ongoing structural inefficiencies.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Widespread storms, severe weather risks, and fire conditions are expected across multiple regions as a cold front drives sharp temperature shifts.
— Colorado drought outlook hinges on monsoon rains and potential ‘Super El Niño’: Near-term drought is expected to worsen, with possible late-season relief dependent on monsoon strength and emerging El Niño conditions.
| TOP STORIES—Hormuz tensions and Lebanon strikes undercut Trump peace pushRenewed disruptions in the Persian Gulf and violations of the Lebanon ceasefire raise doubts about a near-term U.S./Iran agreement Iran has reimposed what it calls “strict control” over the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shutting down one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints amid an ongoing U.S. naval blockade. Iranian gunboats have reportedly fired on commercial tankers attempting to pass through the waterway, with multiple vessels struck by projectiles, according to reporting from AP News.President Donald Trump said the U.S. “won’t be blackmailed,” while signaling that a potential agreement with Iran could be nearing — though key sticking points remain.The escalation comes despite recent ceasefire developments involving Israel and Lebanon and underscores the fragile state of regional stability. Shipping traffic through the strait has largely stalled, intensifying concerns over global oil supply disruptions and price volatility, with live coverage describing the situation as a “serious incident.” The disruption came just a day after Tehran signaled the waterway would reopen, underscoring the fragility of negotiations aimed at ending the seven-week conflict that has severely impacted global energy flows. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes targeting suspected militants in southern Lebanon suggested the ceasefire tied to Hormuz access may be unraveling, further complicating diplomatic momentum. At the center of negotiations remains Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, which Tehran insists will not be relinquished under any circumstances. While Trump has claimed that Iran is prepared to suspend its nuclear program and that key elements of a deal are nearing completion, Iranian officials have publicly rejected core U.S. demands, highlighting persistent gaps. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh dismissed claims from Trump over the uranium and sounded a note of caution about future talks between the two countries. Speaking to the Associated Press in the Turkish city of Antalya, Khatibzadeh said the Iranians were not ready for a new round of face-to-face talks with the U.S. because the Americans “have not abandoned their maximalist position.” On Friday, Trump said the U.S. will go into Iran and “get all the nuclear dust,” referring to the 970 pounds of enriched uranium believed to be buried under nuclear sites badly damaged by U.S. military strikes last year. Energy markets initially responded to signs of progress, with oil prices falling sharply on expectations of restored supply flows. However, analysts warn that any agreement is likely to be limited and unstable, with the U.S. maintaining its naval blockade and signaling the possibility of renewed military action if talks falter. Of note: Despite the escalation, Pakistani officials say the United States and Iran are still moving closer to a deal ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline. Upshot: The latest developments reinforce a central market risk: even as negotiations advance, geopolitical volatility in the Gulf — particularly around Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade — continues to threaten both energy security and broader economic stability. —U.S. prepares global seizure of Iran-linked oil tankersPlanned maritime interceptions signal sharp escalation as tensions intensify in the Strait of Hormuz The U.S. is preparing to board and seize oil tankers linked to Tehran in a sweeping escalation of its pressure campaign against Iran, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal. U.S. officials said military forces are positioning to intercept commercial vessels tied to Iran across global shipping lanes, marking a potential expansion of enforcement actions well beyond the Middle East. The move comes amid rapidly deteriorating conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has reportedly attacked multiple commercial vessels while asserting “strict control” over the critical chokepoint. The waterway handles a significant share of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making any disruption highly consequential for energy markets and global trade. If executed, the U.S. strategy would represent a significant broadening of maritime enforcement, potentially increasing the risk of direct confrontation while further tightening constraints on Iran’s oil exports. The development underscores how quickly the situation in the region is shifting from diplomatic signaling to more aggressive operational measures. —War damage to Gulf energy infrastructure could reach $58 Billion — supply chain constraints emerge as key bottleneckRystad Energy warns recovery timelines will hinge more on access to equipment and contractors than on capital, with global ripple effects likely According to reporting from Rigzone, Rystad Energy estimates that repair and restoration costs for Middle East energy infrastructure damaged during the recent conflict could reach as high as $58 billion, reflecting a sharp increase from earlier projections as the scope of damage has widened. The firm now places average expected spending around $46 billion, with oil and gas facilities accounting for the bulk — up to $50 billion — alongside roughly $5 billion in damage to industrial, power, and desalination assets. The escalation in costs follows weeks of military strikes prior to the April 8 ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which significantly expanded the number of impacted sites. Iran and Qatar have emerged as the most heavily affected. Iran faces the broadest disruption across its energy value chain, including damage to South Pars gas processing facilities, petrochemical complexes, refineries, storage depots, and export terminals. Under a severe damage scenario, Iran alone could account for up to $19 billion in repair costs. Meanwhile, Qatar’s damage is more concentrated but technically complex, centered on Ras Laffan Industrial City, where liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure and gas-to-liquids facilities have been impacted. The overlap between repair work and ongoing expansion projects — particularly in the North Field — raises the risk of delays as both compete for the same engineering and construction resources. Rystad emphasizes that the primary constraint on recovery is not financing but access to supply chains — including specialized equipment, contractors, and logistics. These constraints are expected to slow reconstruction timelines and could divert resources away from new energy projects globally. The firm also warns that repair efforts will likely take precedence over expansion, effectively redirecting capacity rather than creating new supply. This dynamic could contribute to project delays and cost inflation well beyond the Middle East, as global energy infrastructure competes for limited resources. In sum, while the headline figure underscores the scale of physical damage, Rystad suggests the broader impact may come from longer-term disruptions to global energy investment timelines and supply chains, turning the recovery effort into what it describes as a “competition for access” to critical resources. —U.S. breaks ground on sterile fly facility to combat screwworm threatMassive Texas project aims to prevent costly livestock outbreak as pest nears U.S. border; Rollins to visit Arizona next week; What a phased reopening of border could entail USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) traveled to Edinburg, Texas, on Friday (April 17) to break ground on a $610 million sterile fly production facility designed to stop the spread of the New World screwworm, a destructive livestock pest approaching the southern U.S. border. The facility, located at Moore Air Base, will eventually produce up to 300 million sterile flies per week — a key tool in eradicating the pest by disrupting its reproductive cycle. Officials say the investment is critical as the screwworm advances through Mexico, with current cases reported roughly 90 miles south of the U.S. border. The flies will be different fluorescent colors, visible under UV lights so they can be readily identifiable and not confused with non-sterile flies. That way if one is seen north of the border then inspectors will immediately know if it is sterile, or it has crossed from Mexico. Rollins emphasized that no active cases have been detected in the United States. USDA has deployed more than 7,100 traps across the U.S. and Mexico to monitor the pest’s movement and is also investing in parallel control efforts abroad, including funding a facility in Mexico and ongoing sterile fly releases in Latin America. The facility is expected to be fully operational by 2028, marking a major escalation in U.S. biosecurity efforts as officials work to contain the screwworm threat south of the border. Quote of note: “There’s only so much we can do on this side of the border,” Rollins said. “This is important as we hope and pray to keep everything on the south of our border, but if in fact we do have a case or two that do make their way to Texas we are fully ready for that situation as well.” If NWS is found in the U.S. it is not a food safety concern, but rather an animal welfare concern. There would also be immediate trade implications for live animals. Rollins said a year ago, the models showed NWS would have moved into the U.S. by now, but it has not and keeping the pest out has been a huge undertaking for all involved. Since last July, USDA has monitored over 7,000 fly traps on the border and has collected over 51,000 fly specimens, with all being negative for NWS. “USDA continues to execute Secretary Rollins’ five-pronged plan (link) to keep NWS out of the United States,” said USDA Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs Dudley Hoskins, in a USDA news release (link). “While we are aggressively safeguarding American agriculture and working with Mexico to prevent further northward spread, we must also ensure our domestic response plans are ready for immediate activation. Strong coordination with states, producers, veterinarians, sportsmen, and other partners is essential to achieving that goal.” The new playbook outlines how to deal with an infested zone, surveillance zone and fly surveillance zone in areas where the fly is found, and how to be able to continue movement of animals without choking the supply chain. The playbook outlines science-based strategies for officials at the federal, state, and local levels with how to coordinate response operations, reduce spread and prevent NWS establishment, manage the pest in infested animals, implement surveillance and control measures, and support information flow all while maintaining continuity of business. Cornyn warned that a domestic outbreak could have severe economic consequences, noting Texas accounts for roughly 15% of U.S. cattle production. Industry estimates suggest a potential $12 billion to $14 billion hit to the state’s economy if the pest infiltrates U.S. herds. Meanwhile, U.S. livestock imports from Mexico remain suspended — a precautionary move aimed at preventing infected animals from crossing the border. Ranchers and policymakers broadly support the restriction, citing the high stakes for both cattle supply and consumer beef prices. However, USDA has plans to eventually reopen the border under a cautious phased plan that will likely initially focus on Arizona hubs, with multiple screenings of cattle before being allowed entry. The timeline on any phased border opening is unclear, with Rollins previously saying it could take place at the end of April at the earliest. Rollins says she plans to visit Douglas, Arizona, next week, to meet with officials there on their efforts to keep the New World screwworm at bay. The visit has led to conjecture that Rollins could announce a phased reopening during her visit but nothing on the topic is official at this time. Of note: At a Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association convention on Saturday, March 28, Rollins said USDA is evaluating a phased-in strategy for reopening, focusing first on the westernmost port (e.g., Douglas, Arizona/Aqua Prieta, Sonora), which is about 800 miles from the closest NWS case. She noted: “We’re looking at it every single day… We obviously will not be opening all four ports anytime soon, but there is a realistic conversation that’s currently happening… I expect an announcement either way on that, perhaps within the next two to four weeks.” What a Phased Reopening Could Entail The “phased reopening” described by Rollins refers to a risk-based, gradual, geography-driven plan to selectively reopen specific U.S./Mexico border ports for imports of live cattle, bison, and equines from Mexico. Risk-based and sequential: Ports would reopen one (or a few) at a time, starting with the lowest-risk ones farthest from active NWS cases in Mexico. USDA would monitor outcomes (via surveillance, inspections, and sterile fly releases) after each step before proceeding. Starting point: The Douglas, Arizona / Agua Prieta, Sonora port (westernmost). This was ~800 miles from the closest known NWS detection, making it the safest initial option. It has a history of strong U.S./Mexico collaboration on animal health. Subsequent steps: Potentially followed by New Mexico ports (e.g., Columbus and Santa Teresa), with Texas ports (e.g., Del Rio) last or only if the threat is significantly pushed back. Texas ports remain off the table soon, as the latest outbreak is only ~90 miles from the Texas border. Strict safeguards: Any reopening would include enhanced inspections, protocols (e.g., pre-import treatments or certifications), ongoing sterile insect technique (releasing sterile male flies to reduce breeding), expanded trapping/surveillance, and immediate reversal if issues arise. Evaluation after each phase: Rollins and USDA have emphasized post-reopening assessments to ensure “no adverse effects” before expanding. Historical precedent (2025): USDA implemented a similar risk-based phased plan in late June 2025, starting with Douglas, Arizona on July 7, then New Mexico ports, and potentially Texas later. It was rolled back shortly after due to increased NWS detections in Mexico closer to the border. Of note: No final announcement has been made on a reopening; any decision would prioritize U.S. livestock and national security. —Emergency moves on the Colorado River — Trump administration intervenes to stabilize Lake PowellWater transfers and downstream cuts aim to avert hydropower collapse but intensify pressure on farms, cities, and interstate negotiations The Trump administration has launched emergency measures to stabilize the rapidly declining Lake Powell, as worsening drought conditions push the Colorado River system toward crisis. The plan centers on shifting water within the basin and reducing downstream flows to prevent the reservoir from falling below critical levels needed for hydropower generation. Federal officials will release up to 1 million acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir over the next year, boosting inflows into Lake Powell. At the same time, they will cut water releases from the reservoir by more than 19%, reducing flows into Lake Mead — a key supply source for California, Arizona, and Nevada. The move is designed to avoid a worst-case scenario in which Lake Powell drops too low to generate electricity at Glen Canyon Dam — a threshold that could have been reached as soon as August. Officials described the intervention as a short-term fix to “avoid catastrophe,” buying time for states to negotiate long-term water reductions. However, the strategy carries significant downstream consequences. Reduced releases into Lake Mead will likely force additional water cuts across the Southwest, impacting urban supply and agricultural production. Southern California, which receives roughly 20–25% of its water from the Colorado River, and farms in the Imperial Valley — heavily reliant on the river — are expected to face tightening constraints. The broader backdrop is a deepening structural crisis. Reservoirs across the Colorado River system are now just 36% full, while snowpack in the Rockies has fallen to a record-low 22% of average. The river, which supplies water to about 35 million people and 5 million acres of farmland, has seen flows decline sharply since 2000 due to persistent drought and rising temperatures. Meanwhile, negotiations among the seven basin states over long-term water allocations remain stalled, raising the risk of legal disputes. Arizona officials have already warned the federal plan could violate provisions of the century-old Colorado River Compact, signaling potential litigation if flows drop below required levels. Bottom Line: While the emergency actions may temporarily stabilize Lake Powell, officials and water managers agree they do not resolve the underlying imbalance between supply and demand. Long-term stability, they emphasize, will require coordinated conservation efforts across the entire basin — a challenge that remains unresolved as drought conditions intensify. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities yesterday and weekly change: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both ended the week at record closing highs. Nasdaq extended its winning streak to 13 consecutive days, which is the longest since 1992. The Dow nearly exited correction territory before paring its gains late in the afternoon. In April alone, the Nasdaq has seen double-digit growth, while the S&P 500 has added over 8%, a figure that exceeds historical inflation-adjusted annual returns.
| Equity Index | Closing Price April 17 | Point Difference from April 16 | % Difference from April 16 | Weekly Change |
| Dow | 49,447.43 | + 868.71 | +1.79% | +3.20% |
| Nasdaq | 24,468.48 | + 365.78 | +1.52% | +6.84% |
| S&P 500 | 7,126.06 | +84.78 | +1.20% | +4.53% |
Crude oil futures decreased around 11.4% this week to settle around $85, and Brent futures also dropped 3.5% to $91 per barrel as of post-market Friday.
Gold hit a fresh closing high near $4,867.92 per ounce, up about 0.8% on the week in its fourth consecutive advance.
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped from about 4.31% to 4.26% Friday. The dollar index closed Friday at 97.70, down a third straight week. The VIX spiked roughly 7% toward 30 Monday on the blockade, then fell to 17.28 by Friday.
Consumer sentiment sat at a survey record low.
—Global currencies rally against the U.S. dollar
Broad-based gains highlight shifting macro dynamics and weakening dollar momentum
Global currencies are strengthening markedly against the U.S. dollar, reflecting a broad shift in foreign exchange markets as investors reassess relative economic performance, interest rate trajectories, and geopolitical risks. Data sourced from Trading Economics and Visual Capitalist shows a wide range of currencies posting significant year-over-year gains versus the dollar, underscoring the greenback’s recent softness.
Leading the advance is the Israeli shekel, which has appreciated more than 20% against the dollar on a year-over-year basis. Close behind are the Colombian peso and South African rand, each rising roughly 19% and 16%, respectively. The Mexican peso and Australian dollar have also delivered strong gains, climbing in the mid-teens percentage range.
Emerging market currencies are particularly prominent in the rally. The Brazilian real and Nigerian naira have both posted double-digit gains, benefiting from improved commodity flows and, in some cases, tighter domestic monetary policy relative to the U.S. Meanwhile, developed market currencies such as the Norwegian krone, euro, and British pound have also strengthened, though to a lesser degree, with gains ranging from roughly 4% to 6%.
The breadth of the move suggests the dollar’s decline is not driven by a single factor but rather a combination of easing safe-haven demand, moderating U.S. inflation expectations, and shifting central bank policies globally. As energy markets stabilize and geopolitical tensions show intermittent signs of easing, capital flows appear to be rotating away from the dollar and into higher-yielding or commodity-linked currencies.
Meanwhile, the divergence between emerging and developed market performance highlights a renewed appetite for risk, as investors seek exposure to economies tied more directly to global growth and commodity demand. The data suggests that while the dollar remains a dominant reserve currency, its relative strength is facing increasing challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.
| AG MARKETS |
—China pushes hog sector to cut capacity amid price slump
Ag Minister Han Jun calls for sow herd reduction and industry overhaul to stabilize market
China’s agriculture leadership is stepping up efforts to rein in its sprawling hog industry as persistent oversupply and weak demand continue to pressure prices. Han Jun, China’s Agriculture Minister, urged producers to meet production-capacity reduction targets and scale back the breeding sow herd to more sustainable levels, according to a ministry statement.
Speaking to industry representatives, Han emphasized the need for coordinated capacity regulation and structural upgrades aimed at reducing the sector’s chronic boom-and-bust cycles. China — home to roughly half of the world’s pig population — is grappling with entrenched overcapacity, which has kept hog prices depressed despite periodic volatility.
Officials and industry experts cited high production levels and inertia-driven supply growth as key factors weighing on the market. Reflecting this imbalance, the most-active live hog futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell to a record low of 9,000 yuan per metric ton on April 13, the weakest level since the contract launched in 2021. Prices later rebounded to 11,295 yuan per ton by April 17, supported in part by supply concerns tied to a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in northwestern China.
Meanwhile, policymakers are pressing for more disciplined industry behavior. Authorities called on leading producers to take the lead in cutting capacity and avoid aggressive expansion, warning that unchecked growth has exacerbated price instability. Measures under consideration include accelerating the culling of low-yield and aging sows, as well as removing weaker piglets from production systems.
Beyond immediate supply controls, Beijing is also pushing longer-term reforms. These include advancing domestic breeding innovation, promoting low-protein feed technologies, and improving the standardization and technological sophistication of hog production. The broader goal is to create a more resilient and efficient sector capable of withstanding demand fluctuations without severe price swings.
—Agriculture markets yesterday and weekly change:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price April 17 | Change from April 16 | Weekly Change |
| Corn | July | $4.57 1/2 | – 1/4 cent | + 6 1/2 cents |
| Soybeans | July | $11.83 | + 2 1/2 cents | – 7 3/4 cents |
| Soybean Meal | July | $327.20 | – $0.90 | – $1.60 |
| Soybean Oil | July | 67.91 cents | – 114 points | + 89 points |
| SRW Wheat | July | $5.99 1/4 | – 7 1/4 cents | + 18 1/2 cents |
| HRW Wheat | July | $6.50 | – 5 cents | + 45 cents |
| Spring Wheat | July | $6.70 1/4 | + 3 1/4 cents | + 43 1/4 cents |
| Cotton | July | 79.82 cents | + 169 points | + 449 points |
| Live Cattle | June | $247.35 | – $0.275 | – $1.85 |
| Feeder Cattle | May | $365.275 | – $1.825 | – $7.075 |
| Lean Hogs | June | $101.05 | – $0.625 | – $2.675 |
| FARM POLICY |
—House prepares floor action on Farm Bill 2.0 as senate eyes near-term markup
Bipartisan momentum builds, but SNAP cost-sharing and Senate revisions loom as key issues
The House is moving toward floor consideration of the bipartisan Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, with the House Rules Committee signaling it may meet the week of April 27 to advance HR 7567. Lawmakers must submit amendments by noon on April 22, setting the stage for what could be the most significant farm policy debate in years.
GT Thompson, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, struck an optimistic tone, telling reporters he is confident the bill can advance. He noted that committee members have already begun whipping votes across both parties, underscoring early bipartisan engagement.
Support from Democrats appears cautiously constructive. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio), who is positioning herself for a senior Democratic role on the committee in the next Congress, said she would “love to be able to pass a farm bill,” while acknowledging Thompson’s good-faith efforts.
In the Senate, John Boozman (R-Ark.), chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, called the House bill “a good bill” but indicated it will require modifications. He emphasized a relatively quick timeline, saying the committee is working on a markup in “weeks rather than months.”
Meanwhile, Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), the committee’s ranking member, signaled that nutrition policy will remain a central negotiating point. She stressed that state SNAP cost-sharing provisions should be included in any final agreement, even as she highlighted continued bipartisan cooperation with Boozman.
The coming weeks will be critical as House floor action, Senate revisions, and unresolved policy differences — particularly around nutrition spending — begin to converge into a broader negotiation over the next farm bill framework.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Friday: Oil prices plunge as Hormuz reopening triggers rapid risk premium unwind
Ceasefire shipping access and diplomatic progress shift markets toward supply normalization, though risks remain
Oil markets saw a sharp reversal Friday, with both global benchmarks posting their steepest daily losses since early April as easing supply fears sparked a rapid unwind of the geopolitical risk premium.
Brent crude oil fell $9.01, 9.1%, to settle at $90.38 per barrel after dropping as low as $86.09 intraday.
West Texas Intermediate declined $10.84, 11.5%, to $83.85, briefly touching $80.56.
The selloff was driven primarily by developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where authorities confirmed that commercial vessels would be permitted to transit during the ongoing ceasefire (but as noted above, this assessment has been reversed following statements from Iran). Early shipping data showed outbound traffic beginning to recover, reinforcing expectations that disrupted flows could gradually return to global markets after weeks of severe constraints.
Market sentiment shifted decisively as traders moved away from pricing in worst-case supply disruptions toward a more balanced outlook. The controlled reopening of the strait — a critical artery for global crude and LNG shipments — is being viewed as a pivotal step toward restoring normal trade flows.
Meanwhile, progress in diplomatic negotiations has further weighed on prices. Reports indicate both sides are advancing toward a preliminary agreement to end the conflict, with additional talks expected in the coming days. This has reduced the urgency of supply concerns that had previously driven oil sharply higher.
Despite the abrupt downturn, caution persists across the market. The reopening process remains fluid, and logistical hurdles — including vessel coordination and port congestion — could delay a full normalization of flows. Meanwhile, underlying geopolitical risks have not been fully resolved, particularly if negotiations falter or ceasefire terms break down.
Regional supply tightness may also linger, especially in Europe, where extended shipping timelines from the Gulf region could keep near-term inventories constrained.
On the domestic front, U.S. supply signals added another layer of complexity. Drilling activity declined again this week, suggesting producers remain cautious despite recent volatility in crude prices.
Overall, the market has pivoted quickly toward expectations of improving supply conditions. Still, crude prices remain highly sensitive to the durability of the ceasefire and the speed at which global oil flows fully stabilize.
—RFS Set 2 final rule reshapes biomass-based diesel outlook
Farmdoc Daily analysis by Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin highlights unprecedented growth mandates and structural shifts
According to a farmdoc Daily article (link) by Todd Hubbs of Oklahoma State University and Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois, the Environmental Protection Agency’s final Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) “Set 2” rule for 2026–2027 establishes biomass-based diesel mandates at historically high levels, setting the stage for significant market transformation.
The rule, released March 27, finalizes Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) that largely align with prior projections but come in slightly higher for 2026, while also confirming a delay — rather than elimination — of the controversial half-RIN import penalty until at least 2028.
At a topline level, total renewable fuel requirements are set at 25.82 billion RIN gallons for 2026 and 25.98 billion for 2027, rising to 26.81 billion and 27.02 billion gallons, respectively, after accounting for small refinery exemption (SRE) reallocations. These levels represent nearly a 20% increase from 2025 obligations.
Biomass-based diesel requirements stand at 8.86 billion RIN gallons in 2026 and 8.95 billion in 2027, translating to roughly 9.07 billion and 9.20 billion gallons after SRE adjustments, the authors calculate. This marks an unprecedented expansion — roughly 70% above 2025 levels — and far exceeds historical year-over-year increases.
A key structural change in the rule is the standardization of equivalence values, with renewable diesel now aligned with biodiesel at 1.5 RINs per physical gallon starting in 2027. Producers retain the option to petition for higher values, but the adjustment simplifies compliance accounting across fuel types.
The EPA also opted to reallocate 70% of waived blending obligations from small refinery exemptions issued between 2023 and 2025 — adding roughly 1 billion gallons to overall mandates. Meanwhile, projected exemptions for 2026 and 2027 will be fully reallocated within each compliance year, tightening effective blending requirements.
Hubbs and Irwin emphasize that while the rule is final, actual compliance volumes could vary based on future SRE decisions and total gasoline and diesel demand — variables that introduce some uncertainty but are not expected to materially alter the broader trajectory.
The authors conclude that the scale of required growth — with biomass-based diesel volumes increasing by more than 3 billion RIN gallons annually over the next two years — represents a structural break from past RFS implementation. The rule is expected to reshape feedstock markets, production capacity, and global biofuel trade flows for years to come.
| TRADE POLICY |
—U.S./Canada trade rift deepens as Lutnick escalates rhetoric
Talks set to resume amid mounting economic losses and threats to roll back trade framework
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sharply escalated tensions with Canada, telling officials the country “they suck” and vowing to unwind elements of the current U.S./Canada trade arrangement. The remarks were made at a public conference in Washington, D.C. during the Semafor World Economy Summit.
The remarks underscore a rapidly deteriorating trade relationship between two of the world’s closest economic partners, with negotiations now described as fraught and increasingly politicized. U.S. officials are preparing to revisit key provisions of the bilateral framework — widely understood to be tied to the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement — as pressure mounts from the Trump administration to extract concessions from Ottawa.
Meanwhile, the economic stakes are rising. The dispute is estimated to be costing the U.S. more than $1 billion per month, reflecting disruptions to cross-border trade flows, supply chains, and key sectors including agriculture, energy, and manufacturing. Both sides are now under pressure from industry groups to reach a resolution before losses deepen further.
Talks are expected to resume in the coming days, but the tone set by Lutnick’s comments suggests negotiations could be contentious. U.S. officials appear increasingly willing to leverage tariffs and regulatory pressure, while Canadian counterparts are signaling resistance to reopening core elements of the agreement.
The clash comes at a sensitive moment for North American trade, with the scheduled review of the USMCA approaching and broader global trade tensions already elevated. How this dispute is resolved — or prolonged — could have significant implications for continental supply chains, agricultural exports, and the broader trajectory of U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump.
—CBP prepares tariff refund portal launch amid $166 billion repayment push
Importers urged to act early as documentation demands and process complexity come into focus
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is set to launch a new claims portal on Monday to process tariff refunds tied to recent court rulings, with total repayments estimated at roughly $166 billion. The move follows a decision by the U.S. Court of International Trade requiring refunds of tariffs previously invalidated by the Supreme Court under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
Despite lingering uncertainty over a potential appeal by the Trump administration, industry experts are advising companies to begin preparing immediately. Consultants warn that the refund process will be complex, requiring significant coordination and detailed documentation.
CBP plans a phased rollout of the system, with about 63% of refunds expected to be processed in the initial stage. This first phase will prioritize unliquidated entries and those within 80 days of liquidation. As of early April, more than 56,000 importers had already taken preliminary steps toward securing electronic refunds, covering an estimated $127 billion in duties.
The agency’s Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system has completed core development and is now in intensive testing, positioning the portal for immediate use once launched. The key change beginning Monday will be the ability for importers to formally submit claims and supporting documentation for review.
However, the process is expected to place heavy demands on companies. Importers will need to provide detailed records, including importer-of-record filings, shipment-level data, and proof of duties paid. Firms may also be required to demonstrate whether tariff costs were absorbed internally or passed through to customers — a challenge that becomes more complex with large shipments containing thousands of product lines.
Experts caution that companies with incomplete or inconsistent records — particularly those that prioritized speed over documentation during recent supply chain disruptions — could face significant hurdles.
Meanwhile, the financial implications of refunds could extend beyond simple reimbursement. Companies are being advised to evaluate downstream impacts, including tax treatment and financial reporting adjustments. Coordination between finance teams, supply chain managers, and procurement leaders will be critical to ensure accurate and complete submissions.
In short, while the launch of the CBP portal marks a major step toward resolving tariff disputes, the burden now shifts to importers to navigate a documentation-heavy and operationally demanding claims process.
| FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—U.S. food waste declines for first time since pandemic surge
ReFed report points to policy support, private investment, and consumer behavior shifts as key drivers — but warns most surplus food still goes to waste
U.S. food waste showed its first meaningful decline since the pandemic-era rebound, signaling what analysts say could be a turning point in the nation’s long-running struggle with inefficiency across the food system. According to a new report from ReFed, surplus food generation fell 2.2% in 2024 to roughly 70 million tons, with per capita waste down 3.7%. Link to report.
The drop follows several years of increases after pandemic disruptions temporarily reduced waste in 2020. ReFed now suggests the U.S. may be moving past “peak food waste,” driven by a combination of supportive policies, increased private-sector investment, and modest behavioral changes — particularly at the household level. Residential waste alone declined by nearly 950,000 tons, playing a central role in the overall improvement.
Despite this progress, the scale of the challenge remains substantial. Roughly 85% of surplus food still ends up in landfills, incinerators, or other disposal streams, with only a small share redirected to donations, animal feed, or industrial uses. Total surplus food in 2024 still represented about 29% of the U.S. food supply, underscoring the structural inefficiencies embedded across the supply chain.
The report highlights where waste is most concentrated. Households account for about one-third of surplus food, followed by farms (24.2%), manufacturers (18.8%), food service (17.9%), and retail (5.7%). These figures suggest that while consumer behavior is improving, meaningful reductions will require coordinated changes across production, distribution, and consumption.
Investment trends present a mixed but ultimately positive picture. Total funding for food waste solutions rose 6% in 2025, even as federal support declined after the Trump administration canceled Inflation Reduction Act grants tied to composting and food recovery initiatives. Private-sector investment surged 16%, more than offsetting the federal pullback and signaling growing corporate recognition that reducing waste can improve margins.
Meanwhile, policy momentum is increasingly shifting to the state level. In 2025, 24 new food waste-related bills were enacted, including Maine becoming the 12th state to adopt a food waste diversion mandate, set to take effect in 2030. Massachusetts is also exploring stricter residential requirements, building on early success from its existing commercial waste regulations.
Federal efforts appear less certain. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s “Feed It Onward” initiative — aimed at redirecting surplus food to military families — has seen limited follow-through since its launch, while recent budget proposals have targeted some food recovery programs for cuts.
Even so, momentum is building across both public and private sectors. Corporate participation in initiatives like the U.S. Food Waste Pact is expanding, and executives are increasingly viewing waste reduction as a financial opportunity rather than purely an environmental obligation.
ReFed President Dana Gunders framed the current moment as a critical inflection point, citing rising food prices and tightening landfill capacity as additional pressures that could accelerate action. “The wind is at our backs,” Gunders said. “It’s time to step on the gas.”
The broader takeaway is clear: while early signs of progress are emerging, the U.S. remains far from solving its food waste problem — and sustained gains will depend on aligning policy, investment, and consumer behavior at scale.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected from the Northeast to the Gulf Coast Saturday with a risk of severe weather and isolated flash flooding… …Dry and gusty post-frontal conditions will lead to a fire weather threat over portions of the central and southern High Plains this weekend… …Sweeping cold front bringing a dramatic cool down across the central to eastern U.S. this weekend following a week of unseasonably warm temperatures.
—Colorado drought outlook hinges on monsoon rains and potential ‘Super El Niño’
Forecasters warn near-term conditions will worsen before possible late-summer and fall relief
Colorado is facing intensifying drought conditions in the coming months due to a historically low snowpack and unusually warm spring, but meteorologists say relief may arrive later this year through an active monsoon season and the possible emergence of a strong El Niño weather pattern.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal outlook, drought is expected to expand and worsen across much of the western United States through June, including large portions of Colorado. The current conditions follow the recent end of a prolonged La Niña pattern, which typically brings drier weather to much of the state but, this year, failed to deliver normal snowpack levels.
Looking ahead, forecasters are increasingly optimistic about improved moisture conditions beginning in mid-summer. NOAA projections call for above-average precipitation from July through October, coinciding with Colorado’s monsoon season. Climatologists say this period could play a critical role in stabilizing water supplies and reducing wildfire risk if rainfall is steady and sustained.
Further into the year, there is a strong likelihood that El Niño conditions will develop, with NOAA estimating more than a 90% chance between September and January and roughly a 25% probability of a particularly strong — or “super” — El Niño beginning in the fall. Historically, El Niño patterns tend to tilt Colorado’s weather toward wetter conditions, though outcomes can vary given the state’s geographic position between typically wetter southern regions and drier northern zones.
Despite the potential for improvement, experts caution that significant uncertainty remains. A delayed or uneven monsoon season could worsen wildfire risks early in the summer, while heavy late-season rains may increase the likelihood of flash flooding, particularly in areas affected by recent fires where soil absorption is limited.
Overall, the outlook presents a mixed picture — near-term stress for water resources and agriculture, followed by a conditional opportunity for recovery later in the year if key weather patterns develop as forecast.
