China, Others Pressure for Sustained Opening of Strait of Hormuz; Talks Will Occur 

Update on China FMD cases | Gas prices likely to stay elevated into 2027 | Deere settlement fails to fully satisfy farmers in right-to-repair fight

LINKS

Link: The Week Ahead, April 19: Trump: Iran Talks Will Resume, but
         Threatens Power Plants and Bridges If No Deal Reached
Link: Weekend Updates, April 18: Iran Reimposes Control Over
         Strait of Hormuz Until U.S. Ends Blockade of Iranian Ports

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 17
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 17

Topics discussed during podcast:
—Markets

1. USDA NASS to hold April 22 Data Users’ Meeting in KC
2. Update on war with Iran 

3. Energy prices

4. Gold prices

5. Fertilizer: Rollins comments at House hearing

6. China confirms two cases of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD)

7. USTR Greer on China and May 14-15 Trump/Xi Summit

8. NWS: Rollins in Texas

9. Rollins testified before House Ag Approps subcommittee

10. Farm Bill 2.0 update 

11. U.S. farmer aid, current and potential more ahead 

12. USMCA: USTR Greer in Mexico Monday for meeting

13. Wasserman on midterm elections

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 20, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— Xi urges reopening of Hormuz as China pushes ceasefire diplomacy: Beijing calls for immediate ceasefire and stable energy flows as Strait disruptions threaten global markets.
— U.S. seizes Iranian vessel as Strait tensions escalate and ceasefire frays: Naval incident deepens mistrust, raising risk of renewed conflict and prolonged shipping disruptions.
— Iran war drives energy prices higher: Supply losses and Hormuz instability fuel oil volatility and inflation risks across global markets.
— Markets rally through war fears as investors bet on profits over geopolitics: Equities remain resilient on strong earnings despite mounting energy and geopolitical risks.
— Gas prices likely to stay elevated into 2027 amid Iran conflict: Energy secretary warns relief depends on durable resolution in Hormuz.
— Update: China livestock sector on alert as new foot-and-mouth strain emerges: SAT1 outbreak prompts nationwide vaccine push and raises concerns over broader spread.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global markets turn lower as renewed Iran tensions dampen risk appetite.
— Deere settlement fails to fully satisfy farmers in right-to-repair fight: Skepticism persists despite $99 million payout and expanded software access.

AG MARKETS

— Hedging geopolitical risk in agriculture markets: Energy, fertilizer, and trade exposure remain key indirect hedges against global instability.
— USDA Cattle on Feed report signals tighter supplies ahead, but markets remain under pressure: Lower placements point to future supply tightening, but weak beef demand weighs on futures.
— Colorado agriculture under strain as drought, costs, and policy pressures mount: Water shortages and rising inputs force producers to scale back planting.
— USDA launches interactive feeder and stocker cattle dashboard: New AMS tool enhances market transparency and producer decision-making.

FARM POLICY

— Farm groups press House leaders to advance Farm Bill 2.0: Coalition urges swift action as outdated 2018 policy framework strains agriculture.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Monday: Oil rebounds sharply as Iran ceasefire frays and Hormuz flows stall: Prices surge as shipping collapses and diplomacy falters.
— Amazon’s AI data center push reshapes energy and infrastructure demands: Massive buildout highlights rising power demand and farmland conversion.

TRADE POLICY

— Trump administration pushes ‘trade over aid’ doctrine at United Nations: U.S. seeks global backing for shift toward private-sector-led development.
— Canada recasts its economic strategy as U.S. ties fray: Ottawa pivots toward diversification amid tariff tensions and geopolitical risk.

CHINA

— China/Middle East trade hit by Hormuz disruptions as energy flows collapse: Gulf trade plunges while alternative suppliers partially offset oil losses.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Electric fury — power bills surge into a defining U.S. political issue: Rising electricity costs reshape voter priorities ahead of midterms.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: West Coast precipitation increases while Plains heat and eastern cold dominate near-term pattern.
— U.S. planting surge ahead as weather window opens, but freeze risk adds new uncertainty: Strong planting progress meets rising risks from rain and late-season cold.
— South American weather pressures corn, aids Argentina harvest: Brazil heat and dryness stress crops while Argentina harvest accelerates.
— El Niño threat raises risk of global energy shock: Climate cycle could amplify fossil fuel demand and worsen price pressures.
 

TOP STORIES—Xi urges reopening of Hormuz as China pushes ceasefire diplomacyChinese leader calls Saudi crown prince amid rising tensions, warning of global economic fallout from disrupted energy flows Chinese President Xi Jinping called for the Strait of Hormuz to remain open during a phone conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, marking his first direct appeal for restoring normal shipping through the critical waterway. According to Chinese state media, Xi emphasized that keeping the strait open “aligns with the common interest of countries in the region and the international community,” as global energy markets remain under strain from repeated disruptions tied to the ongoing Iran conflict. Xi also called for an “immediate and comprehensive ceasefire,” underscoring Beijing’s preference for a diplomatic resolution. He said China supports political negotiations and regional cooperation efforts aimed at restoring stability, positioning Beijing as an advocate for de-escalation as tensions intensify. The remarks come as the Hormuz chokepoint — which typically handles roughly 20% of global oil flows — continues to experience severe disruptions, constraining supply chains and contributing to volatility across global energy and financial markets. Meanwhile, ceasefire conditions remain fragile. Iran has accused the United States of violating the agreement following a naval incident involving the USS Spruance, which reportedly fired on an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel. The confrontation marks the first known use of force at sea since Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports began. Efforts to restart diplomacy face uncertainty. Pakistan is preparing to host another round of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials, but Tehran has signaled it may not participate, raising doubts about whether negotiations can proceed before the current ceasefire expires. Xi’s outreach to Riyadh — and his broader engagement with Gulf leaders — highlights China’s growing diplomatic role in the region, as it seeks to balance energy security concerns with a push for long-term geopolitical stability.—U.S. seizes Iranian vessel as Strait tensions escalate and ceasefire fraysConflicting claims over violations and stalled diplomacy raise risk of renewed conflict in critical global oil corridor President Donald Trump said U.S. forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, marking a sharp escalation in tensions as a fragile ceasefire with Iran shows signs of breaking down. According to Trump, the vessel was intercepted by the USS Spruance after ignoring warnings, disabled, and boarded by U.S. Marines, though Tehran has not confirmed the incident. The seizure comes amid growing disputes over alleged ceasefire violations, with both Washington and Tehran accusing each other of undermining the truce. Trump warned that failure to reach a deal could result in significant U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure, signaling a hardening stance as negotiations remain uncertain. Meanwhile, Iran has effectively reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for global oil shipments — citing the continued U.S. naval blockade of its ports. Iranian forces have reportedly fired warning shots at multiple vessels and forced several tankers to turn back, heightening risks to international shipping and energy markets. Link to NYT graphic. Diplomatic efforts appear increasingly fragile. U.S. officials indicated a delegation may travel to Pakistan for further talks, but Iranian state media has downplayed the likelihood of new negotiations, citing distrust and unresolved demands. Vice President JD Vance will again lead the delegation, accompanied by the Trump aides Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to a White House official. Of note: An Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Tuesday, Pakistan official sources told Nikkei Asia, despite Tehran’s statements that it had no intention of sending its negotiators while the U.S. navy is continuing a blockade of its ports. A Pakistani official, who spoke to Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity, said that Pakistan is expecting the Iranian delegation to arrive in Islamabad, despite the negative ongoing rhetoric between the two sides. Their first attempt at negotiations collapsed on April 12, without a deal. Iranian leaders signaled conditional openness to a deal but warned that continued U.S. pressure — including the naval blockade — could halt talks altogether. Officials emphasized that any agreement must prevent a recurring cycle of conflict and ensure guarantees for Iran’s security and nuclear program. With the two-week ceasefire set to expire midweek, the combination of military actions at sea, stalled diplomacy, and competing narratives underscores the growing risk of renewed conflict — and continued volatility in global energy and shipping markets. —Iran war drives energy prices higherSupply disruptions and Strait of Hormuz instability fuel volatility across global markets Oil prices have surged sharply as the war between the United States and Iran continues to disrupt global energy flows, with markets increasingly driven by supply fears tied to the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices have experienced repeated spikes in recent weeks, reflecting both physical supply losses and rapid shifts in geopolitical sentiment. The conflict, which began Feb. 28, has already removed hundreds of millions of barrels from global supply chains, creating what analysts describe as one of the largest energy disruptions in modern history. Since the onset of hostilities, benchmark crude prices have risen dramatically — in some cases by more than 50% — as production outages, shipping disruptions, and infrastructure damage ripple through the market. At the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor that typically handles roughly 20% of global oil and refined fuel shipments. Iran’s intermittent closures and military activity in the strait — including attacks on commercial vessels and restrictions on tanker traffic — have severely constrained flows, forcing longer shipping routes and increasing transportation costs.These disruptions have translated directly into higher prices. In recent trading, Brent crude climbed toward the mid-$90s per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate pushed close to $90, with sharp day-to-day swings tied to ceasefire headlines and renewed escalations. The volatility underscores a market struggling to reconcile political optimism with deteriorating physical supply conditions. Beyond crude itself, the shock is cascading across refined fuel markets. Prices for jet fuel and diesel in key hubs such as Singapore have surged, in some cases doubling, while gasoline prices in the U.S. have climbed above $4 per gallon. These increases are feeding directly into broader inflation concerns, particularly as energy costs ripple into transportation, food production, and fertilizer markets. Meanwhile, the war has fundamentally altered the global oil balance. Analysts note that the market has shifted from expectations of surplus to a potential deficit in 2026, as supply losses persist and recovery timelines remain uncertain. Even in scenarios where hostilities ease, restoring production and normal shipping flows could take months, keeping a structural risk premium embedded in prices. The result is a market defined by extreme sensitivity to geopolitical developments. Temporary ceasefires or diplomatic signals have triggered sharp selloffs, while renewed conflict or threats to shipping routes have driven rapid price spikes. This “whiplash” dynamic reflects a deeper reality: oil markets are now being dictated less by traditional supply-demand fundamentals and more by the trajectory of the Iran conflict. Looking ahead, the path of oil prices will hinge largely on whether a durable agreement can reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize regional production. Until then, elevated prices — and heightened volatility — are likely to remain a defining feature of global energy markets. —Markets rally through war fears as investors bet on profits over geopoliticsDespite Iran conflict and energy risks, global equities surge on earnings strength, tech dominance, and expectations of limited long-term damage In an analysis by Joe Rennison of the New York Times, global stock markets are defying the economic risks posed by the ongoing Iran war, with the S&P 500 and major international indexes pushing to record or near-record highs even as energy markets remain volatile and recession fears linger. The apparent disconnect reflects how investors interpret geopolitical crises. While the war has raised the specter of an energy shock — with potential to drive inflation higher, slow global growth, and strain consumers — equity markets are focused less on immediate disruption and more on long-term corporate profitability. That distinction has proven critical. Corporate earnings, particularly among large-cap U.S. firms, remain robust, with expectations for another quarter of double-digit growth. Meanwhile, consumer spending has held up despite higher fuel costs, and inflation pressures, while elevated in energy sectors, have not broadly spread across the economy. Investor sentiment has also been buoyed by shifting expectations around the conflict itself. Signals from the Trump administration suggesting a willingness to pursue negotiations with Iran — alongside intermittent ceasefire developments — have led many traders to believe the worst disruptions may already be behind the market. A major driver of the rally has been the outsized influence of large technology firms. Companies such as Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta — benefiting from continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence — have helped propel broader indexes higher, offsetting weakness in more inflation-sensitive sectors like discount retail. Some consumer-facing businesses, especially those that rely on lower-income customers who are particularly sensitive to inflation, are struggling: Dollar General and Dollar Tree are both down by double-digit percentages since the war began, for example. Meanwhile, a structural shift in investor behavior is reinforcing the trend. Retail investors and institutional players alike have increasingly adopted a “buy the dip” mentality, shaped by repeated episodes in which geopolitical shocks briefly dent markets before a rapid recovery. Analysts note that this evolving playbook has made markets less reactive to short-term crises and more anchored to long-term earnings expectations. The result is a market that appears resilient — even complacent — in the face of geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, the longer the conflict persists or escalates, the greater the risk that energy-driven inflation and demand erosion could eventually challenge the bullish outlook currently driving global equities. Of note: Some farmers have recently asked if there is a “hedge measure” available regarding geopolitics. See the Ag Markets section for a response.  —Gas prices likely to stay elevated into 2027 amid Iran conflictEnergy Secretary Chris Wright signals relief may depend on a durable resolution in the Strait of Hormuz Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that U.S. gasoline prices may not fall below $3 per gallon until next year, underscoring the prolonged impact of the U.S. conflict with Iran on global energy markets. Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union, Wright indicated that while fuel prices have likely peaked, a meaningful decline will depend on geopolitical stability — particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions have constrained global supply. He noted that sub-$3 gasoline, while achievable, may take time to return despite historical precedent during the Trump administration. The conflict has sharply altered price dynamics. U.S. gasoline averaged about $2.90 per gallon on Feb. 1, prior to the escalation. Since the war began on Feb. 28, prices have surged to roughly $4.04 per gallon, according to AAA, reflecting supply shocks tied to the partial closure of the Hormuz chokepoint — a corridor that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Meanwhile, recent diplomatic signals have introduced volatility into the outlook. Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials are set to resume in Pakistan, raising cautious optimism for de-escalation. Oil prices briefly pulled back late last week on expectations that shipping lanes could reopen. However, renewed tensions — including Iranian forces firing on commercial tankers transiting Hormuz — have tempered expectations for a sustained ceasefire. The back-and-forth has reinforced market uncertainty, leaving fuel prices highly sensitive to developments in the region. Wright emphasized that a lasting resolution to the conflict would likely bring energy prices lower, but until then, consumers should expect continued pressure at the pump. —Update: China livestock sector on alert as new foot-and-mouth strain emergesSAT1 detection across distant provinces raises containment concerns, triggers nationwide vaccine push China’s livestock sector is moving into a heightened risk posture following the emergence of a new foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) serotype, SAT1, with early signals pointing to potential spread beyond initial outbreak zones. In early April, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs confirmed the country’s first-ever cases of the SAT1 strain, detected on two farms in Xinjiang and Gansu — locations separated by more than 2,000 kilometers, immediately raising concerns about how widely the virus may already be circulating. While authorities have not formally disclosed additional outbreaks, the policy response suggests mounting concern within the system. Emergency approvals have been granted to vaccine producers Zhongnong Weite Biotech and Jinyu Baoling, accelerating deployment of SAT1-specific doses. Meanwhile, regional veterinary authorities are urging broad-based vaccination campaigns across cattle, sheep, and swine populations — including in provinces far removed from the confirmed cases — signaling a precautionary nationwide containment strategy. Market and industry behavior is reinforcing that view. The North China Livestock Trading Center in Hebei has already restricted live cattle shipments from affected and nearby regions, including Gansu and Inner Mongolia, according to reporting cited by Nikkei (link). At the farm level, producers report a sharp increase in biosecurity protocols, including tighter controls on farm access and animal movement. Additional analysis from retired USDA economist Fred Gale underscores the uncertainty surrounding the outbreak and raises questions about the official narrative. Writing in his Dim Sums China agriculture blog (link), Gale described the simultaneous appearance of outbreaks thousands of kilometers apart as “implausible,” suggesting the virus may already be far more widespread than reported and that emergency vaccine deployment is a signal of broader transmission. He noted that current vaccines do not protect against the SAT1 serotype and that the disease likely entered China via contaminated people or equipment moving from Africa or the Middle East, where the strain has been circulating. Gale also pointed to limited public disclosure and a lack of widespread official warnings to producers, drawing parallels to the early handling of the African swine fever outbreak in 2018. In that case, geographically dispersed early cases were followed by months of underreporting before the disease spread nationwide, ultimately cutting China’s hog herd roughly in half and sending pork prices to record highs. There are, however, important differences. China has longstanding experience managing multiple FMD serotypes and appears to be acting more quickly with targeted vaccines and movement controls. The rapid authorization of SAT1 vaccines and early containment measures suggest authorities are attempting to avoid a repeat of the ASF scenario, even as outside analysts question how contained the outbreak truly is. Even under a controlled-outbreak scenario, the economic implications are significant. Disease management — including potential culling — is likely to reduce China’s beef herd in the near term, with spillover risks to dairy and pork production. That comes at a time when many producers are already operating on thin margins, increasing the likelihood of supply tightening and price volatility across protein markets in 2026. For global agriculture markets, the key question now is whether China’s early intervention can contain the outbreak — or whether SAT1 becomes another structural shock to the world’s largest livestock sector.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: Global markets turned lower as optimism around a Middle East peace deal faded, with tensions reigniting after Washington seized an Iranian cargo ship that attempted to breach its blockade and Tehran vowed retaliation. Wall Street equity futures slipped into negative territory after major North American indexes closed higher on Friday, reflecting renewed geopolitical uncertainty and risk aversion.

In Asia, Japan +0.6%. Hong Kong +0.8%. China +0.8%. India flat.
 

In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -1.1%. Frankfurt -1.3%.

—Deere settlement fails to fully satisfy farmers in right-to-repair fight

Wall Street Journal reports skepticism remains despite $99 million payout and software access pledge

According to reporting (link) by the Wall Street Journal, farmers remain wary after Deere & Company agreed to a $99 million settlement in a long-running “right to repair” case, with critics arguing the concessions may fall short of meaningfully loosening the company’s control over equipment repairs.

Farmers spent four years challenging what they described as Deere’s tight grip over repairs, alleging the company restricted access to diagnostic software and forced them into costly dealer-only service networks. The settlement — which still requires court approval — establishes a $99 million compensation fund and commits Deere to expanding access to repair software and tools.

However, many in agriculture say the deal does not go far enough. The National Farmers Union argues Deere has made similar promises before, and that the newly available tools still lack the full capabilities provided to authorized dealers.

At the core of the dispute is the increasing complexity of modern farm equipment, which now relies heavily on proprietary software systems, sensors, and onboard diagnostics. Farmers contend that these technological barriers limit their ability to perform timely and cost-effective repairs, particularly during critical planting and harvest windows.

The case has broader implications beyond agriculture. The fight over self-repair rights has drawn attention from the automotive and technology sectors, where similar concerns about software locks and manufacturer control are emerging.

More than 200,000 farmers could be eligible to file claims for repair costs paid to Deere dealers since 2018. Deere, for its part, has defended its model, arguing that authorized repair networks help ensure equipment reliability, longevity, and resale value.

Meanwhile, the settlement does not end Deere’s legal challenges. The company still faces a separate antitrust lawsuit brought by the Federal Trade Commission, underscoring that the broader battle over repair rights — in agriculture and beyond — is far from over.

AG MARKETS

—Hedging geopolitical risk in agriculture markets

Energy shocks, fertilizer flows, and trade disruptions define the most effective protection strategies for the ag sector

Geopolitical risk cannot be hedged directly in the way a farmer or trader might hedge a corn or soybean position. Instead, the most effective approach is to hedge the channels through which geopolitical shocks move agricultural markets — namely energy prices, fertilizer supply, trade flows, and broader inflation dynamics. In the current environment, shaped by conflict-driven disruptions and shifting trade alignments, those transmission mechanisms are particularly pronounced.

Energy remains the most immediate and reliable hedge for agricultural exposure. Oil and natural gas are foundational inputs across the ag economy, influencing everything from diesel fuel for planting and harvest to nitrogen fertilizer production. When geopolitical tensions escalate — particularly in regions like the Middle East or the Black Sea — crude oil prices tend to spike quickly, driving up input costs across the farm economy.

Taking exposure to energy markets can therefore offset margin compression for producers and agribusinesses, as higher crop prices often lag the initial surge in input costs. This dynamic has been especially relevant amid ongoing concerns about restricted flows through critical shipping lanes and damage to energy infrastructure.

Closely tied to energy is the fertilizer market, which represents one of the most direct and underappreciated geopolitical hedges in agriculture. Nitrogen fertilizers depend heavily on natural gas, while phosphate and potash markets are concentrated in a handful of exporting countries, including Russia, Morocco, and Canada. Disruptions tied to sanctions, export restrictions, or logistical bottlenecks can quickly tighten global supply and drive price volatility. Positioning in fertilizer producers or closely tracking fertilizer-linked inputs offers a way to hedge against these shocks, particularly as recent conflicts have already strained global shipment flows and raised concerns about seasonal availability during key application windows.

Agricultural commodities themselves provide a partial hedge, though the relationship is more nuanced. Wheat markets, for example, are highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Black Sea region, while corn and soybean markets respond more indirectly through input costs and trade flows. In periods of sustained disruption, higher production costs and constrained global supply can support grain prices, offering some protection for producers with unpriced inventory. However, this hedge is imperfect, as demand destruction or export barriers can offset price gains, particularly if major buyers shift sourcing strategies.

Trade policy and supply chain adjustments introduce another layer of complexity. Geopolitical tensions increasingly manifest through tariffs, export controls, and shifting bilateral agreements, all of which can reshape demand patterns for U.S. agricultural products. For example, enforcement of large-scale purchase commitments or the redirection of global trade flows can create both opportunities and risks for producers. Monitoring these policy developments — and, where possible, aligning exposure to beneficiaries of shifting trade routes — serves as a longer-term hedge against structural geopolitical change.

Inflation-linked assets also play a supporting role in agricultural risk management. Geopolitical shocks frequently push up food and energy prices simultaneously, reinforcing broader inflationary pressures. Assets that benefit from rising inflation, including commodities and inflation-protected securities, can help offset the erosion of purchasing power and rising input costs within the farm economy. This becomes particularly relevant when central banks face trade-offs between controlling inflation and supporting growth, a dynamic increasingly visible in the current macro environment.

Ultimately, there is no single instrument that fully insulates the agricultural sector from geopolitical risk. Analysts say the most effective strategy is a layered approach that reflects how these shocks propagate — beginning with energy, moving through fertilizer and input costs, and ultimately influencing crop prices and trade flows. In this framework, agriculture is not just exposed to geopolitics but deeply intertwined with it, making indirect hedging through these key channels essential for managing risk in an increasingly volatile global landscape.

—USDA Cattle on Feed report signals tighter supplies ahead, but markets remain under pressure

April 17 data shows near-record-low placements and a shrinking feedlot inventory, yet futures finished the week in the red as weak wholesale beef prices weighed on sentiment

USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report (link), released April 17, painted a picture of continued supply tightening in the nation’s feedlots — but the bullish supply data was not enough to lift cattle futures, which closed the week lower as traders wrestled with softening wholesale beef values and sluggish packer margins.

Feedlot inventory slips year-over-year. Total cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head stood at 11.6 million head on April 1, 2026 — down 1% from the same date in 2025. The figures came in roughly in line with analyst forecasts. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.32 million head, down 1% from 2025, representing 37% of total inventory — indicating modest heifer retention continues.

Placements hit near-historic lows. Perhaps the most notable finding in the report was the depth of the decline in feedlot placements. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.71 million head, down 7% from 2025, with net placements of 1.66 million head. USDA noted that placements were the second lowest for March since the data series began in 1996. Lighter-weight placements were notably sparse, with cattle weighing under 600 pounds accounting for just 320,000 head among those placed. In theory, such a sharp drop in placements is a bullish signal for future prices — fewer animals entering the feeding pipeline today means tighter beef supplies down the road. But markets did not react with enthusiasm in the near term.

Futures slip despite supply support. Cattle futures ended the week in negative territory, unable to fully recover from a mid-session selloff on Friday. Live cattle futures for April 2026 delivery closed at $249.95, down 35 cents on the day, with the front-month contract shedding $1.82 over the course of the week.

Feeder cattle futures saw steeper declines, with the April contract dropping $1.75 to $371.325 — a weekly loss of $2.82.

The disconnect between the supply data and price action reflects the immediate pressures bearing down on the market. Weak wholesale boxed beef values and the overall weaker tone set during the week’s trading were enough to overshadow the supportive supply data. Packers are caught in a squeeze: input costs remain elevated as live cattle prices hold firm near record levels, while box beef prices have softened, compressing margins and limiting packers’ willingness to bid aggressively in the cash market.

Cash market holds firm. Despite the futures weakness, the cash cattle market showed some resilience during the week. A few sales of dairy cross cattle in the south were reported at $248, with some trades later reaching $249 base on grid in Texas. In the north, dressed sales moved higher, reporting a range of $388–$392.

Weekly federally inspected slaughter was estimated at 512,000 head — 21,000 under the prior week and 52,000 under last year. The below-trend slaughter underscores just how tight cattle availability has become relative to recent history.

Of note: This is how Zachary Davis of Nesvick Trading Group summed up the report: “The most significant development in this report may be in the herd composition data. Heifers on feed totaled 4.32 million head, accounting for approximately 37% of the total inventory and slipping below the 38% threshold we identified back in January as an indicator that retention may have started. This is the first time we’ve seen this metric break below that level in recent reports, and it suggests that heifers are starting to be held back from feedlot placement and directed toward herd rebuilding. The shift is still early — steers on feed were virtually unchanged year-over-year at 7.256 million head —but if heifer retention continues at this pace, it would signal that the long-anticipated herd rebuild may actually be beginning to materialize. With wildfires and persistent drought conditions stressing portions of the Plains this spring, the durability of this retention trend will depend heavily on whether pasture conditions and cow-calf margins improve enough to justify holding back replacements rather than monetizing them.”

Upshot: a herd still contracting. The April 17 report is the latest data point in a longer story of supply erosion. Tighter cattle supplies have contributed to higher prices and elevated volatility, with the market becoming increasingly sensitive to any news that could affect supply or demand. The closure of the U.S./Mexico border to live cattle imports — driven by concerns over New World screwworm — has further constrained feeder cattle availability, keeping prices for that class elevated. Industry watchers note that consumer demand at the retail level will be the key driver going forward. If boxed beef prices cannot find a floor, analysts say packer margins will continue to tighten, limiting their willingness to bid up for live cattle in the cash market. The market now looks to spring grilling demand for clearer directional guidance.

—Colorado agriculture under strain as drought, costs, and policy pressures mount

Farmers scale back planting and confront survival decisions amid water shortages, rising input costs, and global disruptions

Colorado farmers are cutting back production and questioning their long-term viability as a convergence of drought, rising costs, and global instability batters the state’s $9 billion agricultural sector, according to reporting by the Denver Post.

A record-warm, dry spring has left soil moisture critically low, with diminished mountain snowpack sharply reducing available irrigation water. Growers across the state say they are being forced into difficult decisions, including whether to plant at all. Some, like Pueblo-area chile producers, are scaling back acreage dramatically or prioritizing only their highest-value crops as water supplies dwindle.

Meanwhile, broader economic and geopolitical pressures are compounding the crisis. Tariffs and the war with Iran have driven up the cost of key inputs such as fertilizer, diesel, and equipment, while also disrupting supply chains for essential materials like irrigation components. Diesel prices reaching around $5 per gallon have further strained already tight margins, making planting decisions even riskier.

Labor uncertainty is adding another layer of stress. Immigration enforcement and restrictions tied to H-2A visa workers have created anxiety among farmworkers and reduced labor flexibility, leaving producers unsure whether they will have adequate help during peak seasons.

The combined pressures are already translating into reduced output. Some farmers plan to leave significant portions of their land unplanted, while others are shifting strategies to conserve water and limit financial exposure. Industry officials warn that consumers will likely see fewer locally grown products in grocery stores as a result.

Water availability remains the central concern. Reservoirs and irrigation systems are operating at reduced capacity, with some growers warning that without additional rainfall, harvests could be cut in half or worse. The long-term implications extend beyond a single season, as insufficient water can damage perennial crops like orchards and weaken future production potential.

State officials acknowledge the severity of the situation, warning that continued drought conditions and climate-driven water scarcity could push some farms out of business entirely. Farmers themselves describe the moment as one of the most challenging in decades, with risks stacking across weather, markets, labor, and policy.

Despite the mounting challenges, many producers say they will continue planting at reduced levels, emphasizing that farming remains both their livelihood and identity. Still, the outlook for 2026 points to a significantly constrained growing season, with heightened uncertainty about both yields and the long-term sustainability of family farming operations across Colorado.

—USDA launches interactive feeder and stocker cattle dashboard

AMS expands digital tools to improve market transparency and decision-making for producers

USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has unveiled a new National Feeder and Stocker Cattle dashboard (link), giving farmers and ranchers real-time access to dynamic, visualized market data. The April 14 launch marks the fourth dashboard rollout in USDA’s broader effort to modernize its Market News platform and make livestock data more accessible and actionable.

The tool allows users to track price movements, volume changes, and regional market comparisons through an intuitive, easy-to-read interface. Producers can customize their view using filters such as date, sale type, region, class, and weight — enabling more targeted analysis tailored to individual operations.

USDA said the dashboard will replace traditional text and PDF-based reports currently hosted on the AMS Market News website. Meanwhile, the shift is intended to enhance data processing, improve transparency across livestock markets, and support more informed marketing decisions.

The feeder and stocker dashboard builds on earlier USDA tools, including the Livestock Auction, LMR Cattle, and Cattle Contract Library dashboards. Officials indicated additional digital tools are expected as part of ongoing efforts to modernize agricultural market reporting and better serve producers.

FARM POLICY

—Farm groups press House leaders to advance Farm Bill 2.0

Coalition of 330 organizations warns outdated 2018 policies no longer match current agricultural and economic realities

A broad coalition of 330 agricultural organizations is ramping up pressure on House leadership to move forward with long-delayed farm legislation, urging Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to bring “Farm Bill 2.0” to the House floor.

In a letter (link) released Friday by the Farm Credit Council, the groups emphasized that bipartisan committee approval has already laid the groundwork for action, calling it a “significant milestone” that should be followed by swift floor consideration. The coalition urged both House and Senate leaders to capitalize on that momentum and prioritize passage of a bipartisan, bicameral bill.

The message reflects growing urgency across the agricultural economy, where producers and agribusinesses continue operating under provisions from the 2018 Farm Bill despite a dramatically altered landscape. The groups stressed that delays are no longer sustainable given shifting market dynamics, elevated input costs, and ongoing geopolitical disruptions — including the war with Iran — that are reshaping commodity prices and trade flows.

Quote of note: “Simply put, agriculture and rural America cannot continue to manage the challenges of 2026 with the solutions from 2018,” said Christy Seyfert, president and CEO of the Farm Credit Council, underscoring the breadth of support spanning all 50 states.

Meanwhile, procedural steps in the House suggest movement is nearing. The House Rules Committee has begun accepting amendments through Wednesday at noon, setting up a potential rule vote during the week of April 27 that would allow the bill to advance to the full House floor. That timeline aligns with earlier signals from House Agriculture Committee leadership that a vote could come before the end of April.

The push highlights a rare area of bipartisan alignment in Washington, but also underscores the tight legislative calendar and competing priorities facing Congress. For farm groups, however, the stakes are clear: without updated policy tools, producers face mounting uncertainty as they navigate volatile markets, rising costs, and policy gaps that have widened over the past eight years.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Monday: Oil rebounds sharply as Iran ceasefire frays and Hormuz flows stall

Market volatility intensifies as geopolitical risk collides with worsening physical supply constraints

Oil prices surged in early Monday trading as fears mounted that the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran could collapse, sending shockwaves through already strained global energy markets.

Brent crude climbed 5% to around $95 per barrel. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 6% to nearly $89, reversing part of last week’s sharp 9% selloff that followed temporary signs of de-escalation.

The rebound comes after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach its naval blockade, prompting threats of retaliation from Tehran and raising the risk of renewed hostilities. The center of the dispute remains the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint that typically carries roughly 20% of global oil flows — where shipping activity has once again slowed to a near standstill.

Despite Iran’s earlier assurances that the strait would remain open during the ceasefire, market confidence has eroded quickly. Reports of tanker harassment by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps within 24 hours of those assurances have reinforced concerns that safe passage cannot be guaranteed. Shipping data showed just three vessel crossings in the past 12 hours, underscoring the severity of the disruption.

Analysts say the divergence between financial markets and physical oil fundamentals is becoming more pronounced. While traders continue to price in the possibility of renewed negotiations, real-world supply conditions are deteriorating. An estimated 10–11 million barrels per day of crude production remains offline, with longer shipping routes, higher insurance premiums, and logistical bottlenecks compounding the strain on global supply chains.

Meanwhile, hopes for diplomatic progress are fading. Tehran has signaled it will not participate in a second round of talks ahead of the ceasefire’s expiration, further clouding the outlook. Although more than 20 vessels managed to transit the strait over the weekend — the highest level since early March — traffic has since collapsed again, reinforcing the fragility of any recovery.

The result is a market caught between headline-driven optimism and worsening supply realities — a dynamic that is likely to keep oil prices volatile as the geopolitical situation unfolds.

—Amazon’s AI data center push reshapes energy and infrastructure demands

New York Times report details massive buildout tied to artificial intelligence boom with latest on 1,200-acre former corn field in Indiana 

A report (link) by the New York Times’ Karen Weise and Cade Metz highlights how Amazon is constructing a new generation of massive data centers in Indiana to support artificial intelligence, signaling a dramatic shift in computing infrastructure and energy demand.

The centerpiece of this effort — part of Amazon’s “Project Rainier” — is a sprawling campus near New Carlisle, Indiana, built on what was recently a 1,200-acre cornfield, underscoring how former farmland is being converted into high-tech infrastructure. The company plans to develop roughly 30 data centers at the site, designed to function as a single, interconnected machine for A.I. training. The facility is expected to consume about 2.2 gigawatts of electricity, equivalent to powering roughly one million homes, and will require millions of gallons of water annually for cooling.

The project is closely tied to Amazon’s partnership with AI startup Anthropic, which aims to develop advanced systems approaching human-level intelligence. Amazon has invested billions in the company and plans to rent computing capacity from the site, enabling large-scale AI model training in a single location.

The scale of the development reflects a broader industry race, with major tech firms rapidly expanding data center capacity following the AI boom sparked by tools like ChatGPT. These new facilities far exceed previous generations, requiring vast networks of specialized chips and unprecedented capital investment.

Amazon’s approach differs from competitors by using a higher volume of less complex, in-house chips — developed through its acquisition of Annapurna Labs — rather than relying solely on more powerful chips from companies like Nvidia. The strategy aims to maximize computing output while maintaining energy efficiency.

The rapid expansion is also placing significant strain on local infrastructure. Utilities project that electricity demand in Indiana could more than double by 2030, with Amazon’s campus accounting for roughly half of the increase. Much of the additional power is expected to come from natural gas generation, raising environmental and regulatory concerns.

Meanwhile, the project has drawn local opposition over water usage, land disruption, and potential impacts on wetlands. Residents have raised concerns about declining well water levels, increased traffic, and the transformation of agricultural land into industrial infrastructure.

Despite these challenges, Amazon executives argue the investment is necessary to sustain AI development and can be adapted for multiple uses if technological progress shifts.

The company’s aggressive buildout underscores how the rise of artificial intelligence is not only reshaping the tech sector but also driving fundamental changes in energy consumption, land use — particularly the conversion of farmland — and industrial policy.

TRADE POLICY

—Trump administration pushes ‘trade over aid’ doctrine at United Nations

Diplomatic campaign seeks global backing for shift toward private-sector-led development model

The Trump administration is urging countries to support a sweeping “trade over aid” declaration, marking a significant pivot in U.S. development policy away from direct foreign assistance and toward market-driven economic growth strategies. In an email, a State Department spokesperson on Friday confirmed reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently sent a cable to U.S. diplomats worldwide directing them to press foreign governments to back a proposed trade over aid declaration at the United Nations.

U.S. diplomats have been directed to secure international backing ahead of a planned United Nations event later this month, where the administration intends to formally introduce the initiative. The policy would prioritize trade expansion and private-sector investment over traditional aid flows to developing nations.

State Department principal deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott framed the effort as a rejection of long-standing aid models, arguing that “trade and free market capitalism is the surest path to prosperity.” He criticized proponents of aid-based development, claiming such approaches often benefit entrenched bureaucratic or nongovernmental systems rather than local economies.

The initiative, first reported by Devex (link) and detailed in a diplomatic cable obtained by the Washington Post (link), outlines four central objectives: promoting pro-business reforms in developing countries, encouraging government engagement with private investors, spotlighting successful free-market economies, and fostering partnerships between U.S. firms and developing nations.

U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz previewed the effort during testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, reinforcing the administration’s broader strategy to reposition American development policy around economic liberalization and private capital flows.

The push comes amid a broader contraction in global aid. Data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development show that most major donor countries reduced aid spending in 2025, with steep cuts from nations including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The Chatham House estimates that the world’s largest donors could collectively reduce aid by more than $60 billion between 2023 and 2026.

In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has already announced plans to lower aid spending to 0.3% of gross national income by 2027, redirecting funds toward increased defense expenditures.

The move has faced pushback from the UN, which has warned against shifting too far away from traditional aid. UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric told the Associated Press that while trade and private investment can support growth, “they should, however, not be used to substitute international development cooperation or for principled humanitarian assistance.”

Quote of note: Sam Vigersky, a former humanitarian adviser to the U.S. mission to the UN, was quoted by the Post as saying that the initiative may be seen as undermining the organization. “Having been on the driving end of many démarches over my time, I would not see this being well received because it comes across as undermining the UN,” he said, referring to the cable.

Meanwhile, public health experts warn of significant humanitarian consequences. A study published in The Lancet projects that sustained global aid reductions could result in millions of additional deaths by 2030. The Center for Global Development estimates that cuts to the United States Agency for International Development alone may have already contributed to hundreds of thousands of deaths in 2025.

Timeline: The U.S. mission to the United Nations is expected to host a formal signing event for the “trade over aid” declaration before the end of April, setting up a potential realignment in how global development is financed and executed.

The initiative follows a series of earlier steps by the Trump administration to reshape how the U.S. deploys economic tools overseas. Within days of taking office last year, President Donald Trump ordered a broad pause and review of foreign aid programs, freezing most assistance and ultimately dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development, a decades-old cornerstone of U.S. humanitarian and development policy.

—Canada recasts its economic strategy as U.S. ties fray

Carney signals long-term pivot toward global diversification amid tariff shock and geopolitical strain

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is formally redefining Canada’s economic posture, arguing that the country’s deep reliance on the United States — long viewed as a cornerstone of stability — has become a strategic vulnerability. In a national address, Carney pointed to sharply elevated U.S. tariffs, now at levels not seen since the Great Depression, as evidence that the decades-old model anchoring Canada’s growth is no longer reliable.

Carney’s remarks mark a decisive political and economic shift in Canada, where roughly three-quarters of exports have historically flowed south of the border. That level of concentration, once considered efficient and mutually beneficial, is now being reframed as a structural risk — particularly as U.S. trade policy has turned more protectionist under the current administration.

The prime minister said Ottawa is accelerating efforts to attract foreign capital and expand trade relationships beyond North America, signaling a broader realignment toward Europe, Asia, and emerging markets. The strategy includes pursuing new bilateral and multilateral agreements, strengthening supply chain resilience, and reducing exposure to policy volatility in Washington.

Meanwhile, the shift comes with significant execution challenges. Canada’s infrastructure, logistics networks, and industrial supply chains are deeply integrated with the U.S. economy, making diversification a multi-year — if not multi-decade — undertaking. Trade corridors, regulatory alignment, and sector-specific dependencies, particularly in energy, autos, and agriculture, will complicate any rapid rebalancing.

The timing also reflects mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Escalating trade tensions, combined with broader global disruptions — including the ongoing Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets — are forcing export-dependent economies like Canada to reassess long-standing assumptions about market access and economic security.

Carney’s message underscores a broader reality: what was once Canada’s greatest economic strength — proximity and preferential access to the U.S. market — is now being reassessed as a potential liability in an era of rising protectionism and geopolitical fragmentation.

CHINA

—China/Middle East trade hit by Hormuz disruptions as energy flows collapse

Shipping chokepoint crisis drives steep declines in Iran and Gulf trade, while alternative suppliers cushion China’s oil imports

China’s trade with Iran and key Persian Gulf economies plunged in March as the ongoing conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted global energy flows, according to reporting by South China Morning Post. Newly released customs data show imports from Iran fell 48% year over year, while exports to the country collapsed by 90%, highlighting the depth of the disruption.

The broader regional impact was equally severe. China’s exports to eight Gulf economies — including Saudi Arabia and Qatar — dropped 57%, while imports declined nearly 33%. At the center of the situation is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor that typically carries about 20% of global oil flows. Its intermittent closure and restricted traffic under the U.S. naval blockade sharply curtailed crude shipments, contributing to a 25% year-over-year drop in China’s oil imports from the Gulf.

Analysts say the crisis has fundamentally altered how markets view the chokepoint. Alfredo Montufar-Helu of Ankura China Advisors described the strait as no longer just a transit route but a “permanent geopolitical lever,” warning that even a ceasefire would not eliminate elevated security and insurance costs tied to ongoing risks.

Despite the sharp declines, China has partially offset the supply shock by increasing imports from Russia, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Those alternative flows helped limit the overall drop in crude imports to just 2.24%, underscoring Beijing’s ability to diversify supply chains in a crisis. However, not all commodities have been as resilient — sulfur imports, more than half of which typically come from the Middle East, plunged 42%, exposing vulnerabilities in industrial input supply.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical and economic fallout continues to build. With a fragile ceasefire set to expire and no clear breakthrough in U.S./Iran negotiations, economists warn that volatility in energy markets will remain elevated. Nick Marro of the Economist Intelligence Unit said pressure is mounting on the Trump administration to find a resolution, particularly as rising energy prices weigh on domestic economic sentiment ahead of midterm elections.

The crisis has already triggered what analysts describe as the most severe oil supply shock since the 1970s, with ripple effects extending beyond crude markets into jet fuel shortages and fertilizer supply disruptions. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, global trade flows — and China’s energy security strategy — are likely to remain under sustained pressure.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Electric fury — power bills surge into a defining U.S. political issue

Bloomberg Markets reports rising electricity costs — driven by AI demand, grid strain, and geopolitical shocks — are reshaping voter sentiment ahead of the midterms

In Bloomberg Markets, journalists Josh Saul and Ari Natter detail how soaring U.S. electricity costs are emerging as a central political issue, with utility bills increasingly influencing voter behavior ahead of upcoming elections.

The article (link) highlights a sharp rise in household energy costs across the country, fueled by a combination of factors including rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers, aging grid infrastructure, tariffs, and the ongoing Iran war’s disruption to global energy markets. These pressures have pushed electricity prices higher at rates not seen in decades, compounding broader cost-of-living concerns.

Consumers — particularly those on fixed incomes — are feeling the strain most acutely. The piece centers on Pennsylvania residents who have seen monthly bills climb significantly in recent years, in some cases doubling. That financial pressure is translating directly into political priorities, with voters indicating they are willing to support candidates from either party who can deliver relief on energy costs.

The report underscores that electricity pricing — historically a low-profile issue — has moved to the forefront of national politics. Following the 2024 election, where inflation concerns played a decisive role in returning President Donald Trump to the White House, power bills are now emerging as a comparable pocketbook issue heading into the midterms.

Structurally, demand for electricity is expected to surge, with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation projecting a massive increase over the next decade — driven largely by data center growth. Meanwhile, supply constraints from power plant retirements and slow infrastructure buildout are tightening markets, particularly in regions like the PJM Interconnection grid, where prices have risen sharply since 2020.

Politically, the issue is cutting across party lines but with diverging policy responses. Republicans tend to emphasize expanding fossil fuel and nuclear generation, while Democrats are focusing on clean energy incentives and regulatory reforms. In competitive districts such as Pennsylvania’s 7th, both parties agree costs must come down, but disagree on how to achieve that goal.

Meanwhile, public frustration is intensifying as consumers link rising costs to the rapid expansion of energy-intensive data centers and broader affordability challenges. The article suggests that with Republicans controlling both Congress and the White House, they may bear the brunt of voter backlash if prices continue to climb.

Ultimately, Saul and Natter conclude that electricity prices — once a background issue — are now a front-line economic and political concern, with the potential to influence control of Congress as voters increasingly tie their financial strain to energy policy outcomes.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Pacific system will bring increasing precipitation chances to the West Coast the next couple of days with locally heavy lower elevation rain and heavy snow for the Sierra… …A lingering frontal boundary will bring daily thunderstorm chances to portions of Texas with isolated flash flooding possible… …Widespread well above average temperatures for the Interior West into the Plains while much of the eastern U.S. remains colder following a frontal passage this weekend.

—Planting surge ahead as weather window opens, but freeze risk adds new uncertainty

Dry Corn Belt conditions boost fieldwork before rain, heat, and late-season cold threats reshape outlook

A favorable stretch of dry weather across the Corn Belt is expected to drive a significant surge in planting progress through early Thursday, particularly across the Dakotas, Nebraska, and northwestern Iowa, before a wetter and more volatile pattern returns.

Field conditions are improving rapidly as precipitation stays limited in the near term, allowing producers to accelerate planting efforts during a critical window. Meanwhile, temperatures are set to shift sharply — moving from below-normal levels early in the week to a warmer pattern with highs reaching into the 70s and 80s from Tuesday through Thursday, further supporting fieldwork.

However, the outlook turns more uncertain heading into late April. Forecast models point to a return of widespread rain, with more than 2 inches expected south of the I-70 corridor during the 6–10-day period, potentially slowing progress and raising concerns about localized flooding. Adding to the volatility, an unusually cold air mass is projected to impact the Northern Plains and western Corn Belt between April 24 and April 27, posing a potential risk to early emerging crops.

In the Hard Red Winter wheat belt, conditions remain stressed and increasingly complex. A continued lack of precipitation combined with temperatures climbing into the 90s through Friday is expected to further strain crop development. At the same time, recent reports indicate patchy freeze damage has already occurred in parts of Kansas, highlighting the risk of rapid weather swings. While the most intense cold in the upcoming forecast is expected farther north, portions of the northern HRW region could again face frost or light freeze conditions late this week, particularly as wheat advances into more sensitive growth stages following the recent heat. This combination of accelerated development and intermittent cold exposure raises the risk of localized yield losses.

Of note: Farmers in Kansas are already reporting visible freeze injury in some fields, with estimates of 5–10% damage in spots. Broader reporting also confirms that a spring freeze event has already threatened the 2026 HRW crop, adding to drought stress. But it wasn’t uniform across the HRW belt: The damage appears localized and uneven (“patchy spots”), not a blanket freeze across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

In southern areas (Texas, Oklahoma), drought and heat remain the dominant issue, with freeze impacts more secondary and variable.

Relief is on the horizon, however, with forecasts calling for up to an inch of rainfall beginning Saturday and extending into the 11–15-day window, which could stabilize yield prospects if realized.

The Mid-South presents a similar reversal pattern. Dry conditions will persist through Thursday, but a markedly wetter regime is expected to take hold thereafter. Forecast totals of up to 4 inches of rain over the 6–10 and 11–15-day periods are likely to replenish soil moisture and alleviate recent deficits, improving conditions for crop establishment but potentially delaying fieldwork in saturated areas.

Overall, the near-term forecast offers a narrow but critical opportunity for planting acceleration, followed by a more complex mix of moisture, temperature swings, and freeze risk that producers will need to navigate closely.

—South American weather pressures corn, aids Argentina harvest

Heat and dryness threaten Brazil’s safrinha crop while Argentina benefits from improving harvest conditions

A worsening weather pattern across northern Brazil — particularly in key safrinha corn regions like Mato Grosso and Goiás — is expected to significantly stress crops over the next two weeks. Forecasts call for well-below-normal rainfall combined with an unusually hot pattern in Week Two, with temperatures running 5–7 degrees above normal. This combination is likely to curb yield potential and further limit any remaining planting progress.

In southern Brazil, including Paraná and southern Mato Grosso do Sul, near-term dryness will persist through the next several days before more meaningful rainfall returns in Week Two, with 1–2 inches expected. However, elevated temperatures — 5–10 degrees above normal — will sustain high evaporative demand, limiting the overall benefit of the moisture and maintaining stress on developing crops.

Meanwhile, conditions in Argentina are more favorable for fieldwork. Widespread rainfall of 1–2 inches is expected in the main growing areas in the immediate term, followed by a drier pattern over the remainder of the 15-day outlook. That shift should support a steady acceleration in harvest progress after the initial moisture passes through.

—El Niño threat raises risk of global energy shock

Chinese scientists warn climate cycle could amplify fossil fuel demand and intensify price pressures amid geopolitical turmoil

Chinese government scientists are warning that a strengthening El Niño event this year could exacerbate an already fragile global energy market, creating a feedback loop of higher fossil fuel demand, rising prices, and worsening climate impacts.

According to China’s National Climate Centre, the expected shift to moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions beginning as early as next month could disrupt weather patterns across key regions, particularly those reliant on hydropower. Officials say that extreme swings between drought and flooding may reduce electricity generation capacity, forcing countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa to rely more heavily on oil and natural gas.

Wang Yaqi, a senior engineer at the center, warned that this dynamic could create a “damaging loop” — where reduced hydropower output increases fossil fuel consumption, driving up both carbon emissions and energy costs. That added demand would come at a time when global oil markets are already under strain from the war with Iran and disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

El Niño — a periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific — typically occurs every two to seven years and is associated with higher global temperatures. It is formally declared when ocean temperatures rise at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months, with stronger events producing more severe global impacts.

The phenomenon can simultaneously intensify drought conditions and increase the risk of extreme rainfall. Warmer air holds more moisture, accelerating evaporation and worsening dry spells, while also fueling more intense storms and flooding when precipitation occurs. These extremes can damage energy infrastructure, including power lines and substations, while also limiting water availability for hydropower generation.

Chinese forecasters emphasized that while El Niño alone does not determine outcomes, it acts as a powerful amplifier within a complex system of climate and economic pressures. Past strong events — such as the 2015 episode — have coincided with record-breaking global temperatures, and recent warming trends suggest heightened vulnerability.

Meanwhile, officials cautioned against alarmist claims that this year’s event will be unprecedented. Chen Lijuan, the center’s chief forecaster, said it is too early to predict a new global temperature record, though she acknowledged that the risks tied to El Niño are “undeniably rising significantly.”

The warning underscores a growing intersection between climate variability and energy security, where weather-driven disruptions can quickly translate into market volatility — particularly when layered on top of geopolitical shocks already constraining global supply.