Rep. Baird Accident Adds New Strain to GOP’s Narrow House Majority

USDA’s $1 bil. for specialty crops, sugar woefully short of what’s needed

LINKS

Link: Supreme Court Tees Up First Possible Ruling on Trump Tariffs

Link: House GOP Majority Tightens Further After Sudden Death
          of California Rep. Doug LaMalfa

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 4
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 4
 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 7, 2026

UP FRONT

 TOP STORIES

— Rep. Baird accident adds new strain to GOP’s narrow House majority: Rep. Jim Baird’s hospitalization after a car accident adds to GOP attendance risk after Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s death, with Republicans’ margin already vulnerable amid defections and looming special elections.

— House Ag Democrats push for tariff scrutiny, warn panel has neglected oversight: Minority leaders on the House Ag Committee are urging hearings on the Trump administration’s tariff-driven trade strategy, warning higher input costs, lost market access, and uncertainty around USMCA are hurting farmers as the panel focuses more on legislation than oversight.

— Trump floats federal backstop for U.S. oil firms rebuilding Venezuela: Trump says U.S. oil companies could front the capital to revive Venezuela’s oil sector and potentially be reimbursed by taxpayers or future oil revenue—an idea that could speed a restart but raises cost, risk, and political questions for both companies and Washington.

— Gulf Coast refiners poised for Venezuelan crude revival: Gulf Coast refiners are positioned to benefit quickly if Venezuelan heavy crude returns because many plants were built to process those grades; even modest volumes could improve margins, though Venezuela’s production comeback would likely take years.

— Supreme Court’s January sitting begins Jan. 12: The Court opens a two-week argument session featuring cases on transgender athletes, gun-rights doctrine, and Trump’s bid to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

— Mexico’s growing oil role strains ties with Washington: Mexico has overtaken Venezuela as Cuba’s top crude supplier, prompting Trump’s rebukes and sharpening tensions with President Claudia Sheinbaum ahead of trade and security talks.

— White House escalates Greenland rhetoric, dismisses military conflict: Stephen Miller doubles down on the administration’s view that Greenland should become part of the U.S., arguing it’s a strategic necessity while downplaying any military scenario — stoking unease among Denmark and other European allies. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers that the administration’s objective is to purchase Greenland from Denmark.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak, a potential catalyst for bank-policy and rate-expectations chatter.

— Equities yesterday: Stocks rose broadly, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all higher on the day.

— Silver jumps back toward record high as China tightens exports and Venezuela shock spurs safe-haven demand: Silver surged back near all-time highs as China restricted exports and geopolitical risk (including the Maduro shock and Greenland tensions) revived safe-haven buying, keeping volatility elevated after last week’s sharp pullback.

— Ford rides hybrid strength to higher U.S. sales despite EV slowdown: Ford’s 2025 U.S. sales rose 6% as hybrids and the lower-priced Maverick pickup outperformed, offsetting softer EV momentum amid affordability and infrastructure concerns.

— Top risks 2026: America becomes the world’s primary source of instability: Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan argue U.S. political upheaval and unilateralism are the top global risk, with spillovers for allies, markets, and conflict dynamics; they flag a “zombie” USMCA and rising “Donroe Doctrine” pressure in the hemisphere as key flashpoints.

AG MARKETS

— USDA FAS issues export sales correction to unknown destinations: USDA corrected reported soybean sales, clarifying volumes to unknown destinations for 2025/26.

— Farmer confidence softens as trade and soybean competition weigh on outlook: The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer slipped as long-term expectations weakened, with growers citing trade uncertainty and rising concern about Brazil’s competitiveness in soybeans.

— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grain and livestock futures were mixed, with soybeans and wheat lower while cattle posted gains.

FARM POLICY

— Specialty crop losses mount as costs outpace prices: An American Farm Bureau analysis warns specialty crop growers face structural losses as costs rise faster than prices and safety-net tools lag, leaving major gaps for fruits, nuts, and vegetables heading into 2026.

USDA PERSONNEL

— USDA taps House Ag Committee veteran Justin Benavidez as chief economist: USDA named Justin Benavidez chief economist, tapping a former House Ag Committee economist as the agency navigates staffing attrition and heightened demands for farm-economy analysis.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Wednesday: Oil prices slide after Trump/Venezuela crude deal: Oil prices fell as markets reacted to Trump’s announcement of a deal to import up to $2 billion of Venezuelan crude, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply in 2026 and adding pressure to an already bearish outlook despite uncertainty over actual volumes reaching U.S. markets.

— Tuesday: Oil slides as 2026 surplus outlook overshadows Venezuela uncertainty: Crude fell as markets focused on ample global supply expectations for 2026, with analysts cautioning any Venezuela-driven boost to output would likely be gradual.

— Carney dismisses Venezuela oil threat to Canada: Canada’s prime minister argues Venezuelan supply gains would take years and won’t materially undermine Canadian producers, citing Canada’s lower-risk profile and improving cost structure.

— Ethanol demand builds on stronger blending and export growth: USDA ERS data show U.S. ethanol demand has been supported by above-minimum blend rates and strengthening exports, translating into higher implied corn use versus a decade ago. Meanwhile, ethanol made up 11.06% of U.S. gasoline consumption in October, marking the first time the monthly blend rate has topped 11%.

TRADE POLICY

— Florida strawberry growers push rare regional trade case against Mexican imports: Florida producers filed an antidumping petition seeking steep duties on Mexican winter strawberries, using a rarely invoked “regional industry” approach ahead of the USMCA review.

CHINA

— China condemns U.S. Venezuela raid, sees propaganda windfall and strategic openings: Beijing blasted the Maduro operation as a sovereignty violation while seeing messaging upside and potential strategic leverage, even as its direct energy exposure appears limited and it seeks to protect outstanding loans.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Trump warns GOP of impeachment push, urges midterm focus at House retreat: Trump tells House Republicans holding the majority is his firewall against impeachment, pushing the 2026 midterms as a survival test for his agenda.

— Supreme Court delay locks in Louisiana’s 2026 congressional map: With no expedited ruling, Louisiana will use the contested map for 2026 due to compressed election deadlines and a new closed-primary system.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— New dietary guidelines poised to crack down on sugar and processed foods: Draft guidelines are expected to urge sharper reductions in added sugars per meal and tougher messaging on ultra-processed foods, changes that could ripple through school meals and food industry formulations.

HEALTHCARE

— Why flu feels everywhere this winter — and why it’s not a “super flu”: A fast-spreading H3N2 subclade (K) is driving unusually high case volumes and hospital strain, but experts say individual severity looks typical for seasonal flu; antivirals still work and vaccination still reduces severe outcomes.

TOP STORIES—Rep. Baird accident adds new strain to GOP’s narrow House majorityTrump says Rep. Jim Baird and his wife will recover, but absence deepens Republican numbers after LaMalfa’s death President Donald Trump revealed Tuesday that Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.) and his wife are recovering from what he described as a “pretty bad” car accident, telling House Republicans that both are expected to be okay but remain hospitalized. Trump shared the update during remarks to GOP lawmakers, offering prayers for the couple’s recovery. Baird’s office did not respond to requests for comment. The accident further complicates the already razor-thin Republican House majority, which now stands at 218–213 following the sudden death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) and the recent retirement of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). Additional uncertainty comes from frequent GOP defections by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and an expected Democratic pickup after a Jan. 31 runoff in Texas’ 18th District. Baird, who has represented Indiana’s 4th Congressional District since 2019, is known for his focus on veterans and agriculture issues. His recovery timeline could affect GOP attendance and vote margins in the near term. Trump also used his remarks to mourn LaMalfa, praising him as a staunch ally and a leading advocate on California water issues. LaMalfa’s death marks the fourth loss of a member of the 119th Congress, leaving four vacancies in the House. Of note: California Gov. Gavin Newsom could keep a Republican-held House seat vacant for months following the death of LaMalfa, creating new complications for GOP leaders navigating a razor-thin majority in the 119th Congress. Under California law, Newsom has 14 days from LaMalfa’s death to call a special election to fill the remainder of his term in the state’s heavily Republican 1st District. Depending on how the governor times that announcement, the seat could remain unfilled until June — or even August — leaving Republicans short-handed for much of the year. State rules allow the special general election to be scheduled between 126 and 140 days after Newsom’s proclamation, or within 200 days if it coincides with an existing election. That gives Newsom flexibility to align either the special primary or the special general election with California’s June 2 statewide primary. Governors often consolidate elections to reduce costs. California’s all-party “top two” system adds another wrinkle. All candidates run on a single primary ballot, and only a candidate who clears 50% avoids a runoff. If Newsom schedules the special general election for June 2, the special primary would fall in late March. Alternatively, he could delay the general election until early August, with the primary held on June 2. —House Ag Democrats push for tariff scrutiny, warn panel has neglected oversightMinority leaders urge hearings on Trump-era trade strategy, USMCA uncertainty, and rising farm input costsTop Democrats on the House Ag Committee are pressing Republican leaders to step up oversight of the Trump administration’s tariff and trade policies, arguing the panel has largely sidelined scrutiny of executive actions that are hurting U.S. agriculture. In a Jan. 6 letter (link) to Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.), Ranking Member Angie Craig (D-Minn.) and Vice Ranking Member Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) said the committee has focused heavily on legislative business while overlooking administration decisions with direct consequences for farmers, ranchers, and rural communities. The lawmakers note that since the committee’s organizational meeting last year, it has held roughly 20 hearings — mostly tied to legislative priorities such as reconciliation, crypto regulation, grain standards, CFTC reauthorization, and the farm bill. By contrast, they argue, major challenges facing agriculture have gone unexamined, including President Donald Trump’s “trade war with the world,” USDA’s reorganization plans, and animal disease outbreaks. Craig and Brown accuse the Republican majority of “turning a blind eye” to pressures on rural America stemming from GOP policy choices and call for a renewed focus on oversight. Chief among their demands is a hearing to review the administration’s tariff-based trade strategy, which they say has driven up input costs, restricted foreign market access, damaged U.S. credibility as a reliable agricultural supplier, and produced trade agreements with “dubious results.” The Democrats also want the committee to examine the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, urging members to hear directly from agricultural stakeholders about trade priorities with the U.S.’s two largest partners and the risks posed by what they describe as the administration’s lack of a coherent strategy and periodic threats to dissolve the pact. Additional oversight topics proposed include the causes of higher grocery prices — such as tariffs, industry concentration, and labor shortages linked to mass deportations — and the impact of USDA staff reductions and reorganization on the department’s core functions. The letter further criticizes what Democrats call insufficient support for expanding domestic markets for U.S.-grown products at a time when export opportunities are being undercut by tariffs and trade disputes. “These are issues of clear importance to the agricultural community,” Craig and Brown conclude, arguing that farmers and rural stakeholders would welcome the committee reasserting its oversight role on trade, tariffs, and administration policy.—Trump floats federal backstop for U.S. oil firms rebuilding VenezuelaPresident tells NBC News companies could be reimbursed by taxpayers or future oil revenue as administration presses rapid restart plan President Donald Trump said the U.S. government may reimburse American oil companies for the billions of dollars needed to rebuild Venezuela’s dilapidated oil infrastructure, arguing the country’s vast reserves could be brought back online in under 18 months and help keep global oil prices low. In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Trump said oil companies would front the investment and then “get reimbursed by us or through revenue,” though he declined to estimate the cost. He framed the effort as a win for both investors and consumers, saying expanded Venezuelan output would help suppress oil prices — even as U.S. gas prices already sit near multiyear lows. The reimbursement question is likely central to corporate decision-making. Despite Trump’s optimism, major producers remain cautious, citing Venezuela’s history of nationalizations, sanctions risk, and political instability following the U.S. operation that captured former leader Nicolás Maduro. Trump said companies were aware the administration was considering action in Venezuela but were not briefed in advance. He also said it was “too soon” to confirm whether he has personally spoken with executives at Exxon Mobil, Chevron, or ConocoPhillips. ConocoPhillips declined to comment; Chevron said it does not speculate on future investments; Exxon did not respond. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is expected to engage industry leaders as the administration explores a broader rebuilding push, but corporate skepticism remains. Exxon CEO Darren Woods recently noted the company has been expropriated twice in Venezuela and would need to see “what the economics look like” before reconsidering entry. The tension for oil majors is clear: lower global prices could benefit consumers and U.S. refiners, but would also compress revenues for the very companies being asked to bankroll Venezuela’s revival — unless a federal reimbursement or revenue-sharing backstop materializes. Meanwhile, Trump said Venezuela will send as much as 50 million barrels of oil to America, with proceeds to “benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States.” The Trump administration also told Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez, that her government must exclusively partner with the U.S. on crude production and favor the U.S. when selling heavy crude, ABC reported. Chevron is sailing 11 ships to load oil. —Gulf Coast refiners poised for Venezuelan crude revivalHeavy-oil configurations give U.S. refiners a head start if sanctions ease and Venezuelan barrels return, FT reports U.S. oil refiners along the Gulf Coast are quietly preparing for a potential resurgence of Venezuelan crude, leveraging refinery investments made years ago to handle the country’s extra-heavy oil, according to the Financial Times. Facilities in Texas and Louisiana were originally optimized to process Venezuelan grades, meaning a reopening of flows would require far less retooling than sourcing alternative heavy crudes elsewhere. FT notes that Venezuelan oil remains uniquely attractive for U.S. refiners because its dense, sulfur-heavy characteristics fit complex refining units such as cokers that many Gulf Coast plants already operate. Companies including Chevron, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 historically relied on Venezuelan supply and have since substituted barrels from Canada, Mexico, and the Middle East — often at higher cost or logistical complexity. While any near-term surge in imports would depend on U.S. sanctions policy and political developments in Caracas, analysts told the FT that even modest Venezuelan volumes could improve refinery margins by lowering feedstock costs and reducing dependence on longer-haul heavy crude. That dynamic helps explain why refiners are closely tracking Washington’s Venezuela deliberations, even as they publicly downplay expectations of a rapid reopening. The FT also emphasizes that production constraints inside Venezuela remain severe after years of underinvestment and mismanagement, meaning a full comeback would likely unfold over years, not months. Still, for U.S. refiners, the strategic advantage is clear: if Venezuelan barrels return, the Gulf Coast is ready. —The Supreme Court’s January argument session will begin on Monday, Jan. 12. The court will hear seven arguments over two weeks, including on transgender athletes; the latest chapter in the court’s gun rights jurisprudence; and President Donald Trump’s bid to remove Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. —Mexico’s growing oil role strains ties with WashingtonMexico overtakes Venezuela as Cuba’s top crude supplier, prompting sharp rebukes from President Trump amid heightened U.S. pressure after Nicolás Maduro’s capture  New data show Mexico exported an average of about 12,284 barrels per day of crude to Cuba in 2025 — roughly 44% of the island’s total imports — surpassing Venezuela as Havana’s main oil source. Venezuelan shipments to Cuba plunged after sanctions and U.S.-led pressure, dropping about 63% since 2023. President Donald Trump, following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, has sharply criticized Mexico’s oil flows to Cuba and suggested the Cuban government is vulnerable without Venezuelan support.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum defended the exports as lawful acts of national sovereignty, rejecting U.S. interventionist rhetoric even as tensions rise ahead of key trade and security negotiations. —White House escalates Greenland rhetoric, dismisses military conflictStephen Miller says U.S. control of Greenland is a strategic necessity, insists no country would fight Washington over the Arctic territory White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller forcefully reiterated the Trump administration’s position that Greenland should become part of the United States, while downplaying any suggestion that military force would be required to achieve that goal. In an interview on CNN’s The Lead, Miller told host Jake Tapper that the idea of a military confrontation was misplaced. “Nobody’s going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland,” Miller said, adding that there was “no need to even think or talk” about a military operation. Miller framed U.S. interest in Greenland as a matter of national security, echoing long-standing views expressed by Donald Trump, who has repeatedly highlighted the island’s strategic location in the Arctic. Trump renewed those arguments over the weekend, claiming Greenland is increasingly surrounded by Russian and Chinese activity and arguing that Denmark lacks the capacity to secure it. The comments carried added weight following the administration’s dramatic arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which has heightened global scrutiny of U.S. willingness to act unilaterally abroad. Against that backdrop, Miller sought to separate Greenland rhetoric from any implication of imminent force, even as he questioned Denmark’s legal and historical claim to the semiautonomous territory. “The real question is, by what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland?” Miller said, describing Denmark’s role as effectively colonial and arguing that U.S. control would better serve NATO’s Arctic security interests. The administration’s posture has unsettled European allies. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that any U.S. military action against a fellow NATO country would fundamentally undermine the alliance, according to comments reported by Bloomberg. While Miller dismissed an X post by his wife, Katie Miller, depicting Greenland filled with an American flag as unofficial, his remarks underscored that the administration views Greenland’s future as an open — and increasingly explicit — strategic question for the United States and its allies. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers that the administration’s objective is to purchase Greenland from Denmark, seeking to tamp down speculation about military action, according to people familiar with the discussions. Rubio said recent rhetoric directed at the island should not be interpreted as signaling an imminent invasion. President Trump and other senior officials, however, have publicly stopped short of ruling out the use of force. The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Trump has argued that control of Greenland is critical to U.S. national security. Bottom Line: Since the U.S. military raid in Caracas that led to the capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, Trump’s renewed focus on Greenland has unsettled U.S. allies and drawn pushback from some Republican lawmakers. In Venezuela, meanwhile, the regime’s new survival strategy appears to be accommodating Trump.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak at the California Bankers Association 2026 Bank Presidents Seminar.

—Equities yesterday: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  Jan. 6	Point Difference  from Jan. 5	% Difference  from Jan. 5
Dow	49,462.08	+484.90	+0.99%
Nasdaq	23,547.17	+151.35	+0.65%
S&P 500	6,944.82	+42.77	+0.62%

—Silver jumps back toward record high as China tightens exports and Venezuela shock spurs safe-haven demand

China’s silver export curbs and heightened geopolitical risk after the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro reignite a rally that defined metals markets in 2025

Silver prices surged back toward record territory Tuesday, climbing more than 5% to around $80.70 an ounce, as fresh supply concerns from China collided with renewed geopolitical anxiety following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The rebound comes just days after silver pulled back sharply from its late-December peak above $83.

The latest move reflects China’s decision to sharply restrict silver exports, limiting shipments to just 44 approved companies. Analysts say the policy is designed to keep more metal at home, effectively tightening global supply. Market strategists warn the restrictions could further amplify price volatility, especially given silver’s growing role in industrial supply chains tied to electric vehicles and AI data centers.

Geopolitics added fuel to the rally. Investors rotated back into precious metals after the U.S. operation against Maduro and amid broader international tensions under Donald Trump’s second-term foreign policy agenda. Analysts told Reuters that the Venezuela action revived safe-haven demand for both gold and silver, while Bloomberg pointed to unease in Europe over U.S. rhetoric toward Greenland as another driver of metals inflows.

Silver’s renewed strength caps what was already a historic run in 2025, when prices surged roughly 150%. Demand from technology sectors, persistent supply deficits, and U.S. interest-rate cuts all underpinned last year’s rally.

Gold also moved higher Tuesday, though more modestly, rising about 1% to roughly $4,483 an ounce.

Analysts caution volatility remains elevated. Last week’s sharp pullback was partly blamed on higher margin requirements imposed by CME Group, which reduced speculative positioning. Still, with China tightening exports, global output lagging demand, and geopolitical risk firmly back in focus, many market watchers see silver’s path of least resistance as higher — at least for now.

—Ford rides hybrid strength to higher U.S. sales despite EV slowdown

Affordable Maverick pickup and expanding hybrid lineup drive gains as electric vehicle momentum cools

Ford Motor Company reported a 6% increase in U.S. auto sales in 2025, buoyed by strong demand for its hybrid vehicles and its lower-priced pickup offerings, even as growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales slowed.

The automaker benefited from sustained consumer interest in hybrids, which have emerged as a practical middle ground for buyers wary of higher EV prices, charging infrastructure gaps, and range concerns. Ford has steadily expanded hybrid options across key models, positioning them as fuel-efficient alternatives without requiring a full shift away from gasoline.

A major contributor to the sales increase was Ford’s affordable pickup strategy, led by the compact Maverick. The model has resonated with cost-conscious consumers facing higher interest rates and lingering inflation pressures, offering utility at a lower price point than full-size trucks. That demand helped offset softer performance in Ford’s EV lineup, where sales growth has cooled amid broader industry challenges.

The results underscore a shifting U.S. auto market in which consumers are prioritizing price, flexibility, and fuel savings over early-stage EV adoption. For Ford, the 2025 sales mix highlights the near-term importance of hybrids and entry-level trucks as the company recalibrates its electrification strategy to better align with consumer demand and market conditions.

—Top risks 2026: America becomes the world’s primary source of instability

Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan warn that President Trump’s second-term political revolution and rising U.S. unilateralism mark 2026 as a global tipping point

In Top Risks 2026, Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, and Cliff Kupchan, the firm’s chairman, argue that the single greatest threat to global stability this year is not a great-power war but the internal political transformation of the United States and its spillover effects abroad. They describe 2026 as a “tipping point year,” driven by President Donald Trump’s unprecedented effort to dismantle institutional checks on executive power and remake America’s role in the global order.

Bremmer and Kupchan identify the report’s top risk as a U.S. political revolution, contending that Trump’s second term has moved well beyond episodic norm-breaking into a system-level restructuring of governance. They point to the politicization of the civil service, law enforcement, regulators, and media as evidence that the administration is weakening the constraints that have traditionally limited presidential authority. Even if Trump’s project ultimately fails, the authors warn there will be no return to the pre-Trump status quo; future presidents will inherit expanded executive power and eroded institutional guardrails.

On the global stage, Bremmer and Kupchan argue that U.S. unpredictability is forcing allies and rivals alike to hedge against Washington. China, India, and the Gulf states are seen as relative beneficiaries of America’s retreat from multilateral leadership, while Europe is portrayed as “under siege,” weakened by populist pressures, fiscal strain, and diminishing confidence in U.S. security commitments. Russia, meanwhile, is expected to intensify hybrid warfare against NATO, betting that gray-zone attacks will remain below the alliance’s collective response threshold.

USMCA: A “zombie” trade pact. Bremmer and Kupchan also highlight the growing fragility of the USMCA, describing it as a “zombie” agreement — formally in force but increasingly hollow. While the trade pact still structures North American commerce, the authors argue that the Trump administration’s repeated use of tariffs, migration leverage, and national-security justifications against Canada and Mexico has undermined the agreement’s credibility. Mexico’s cooperation is portrayed as conditional on U.S. restraint, while Canada is increasingly wary of politically motivated enforcement. As Washington leans more heavily on unilateral pressure, the authors warn that North American integration will persist only as long as it aligns with White House priorities, raising risks for supply chains, investment certainty, and regional political stability.

Another major structural risk identified by Bremmer and Kupchan is Overpowered: China’s dominance of the “electric stack” — batteries, power electronics, EVs, and grid infrastructure — contrasted with a U.S. strategy still centered on fossil fuels. They argue this divergence could leave Washington strategically disadvantaged not only in industrial competitiveness but also in the race to deploy artificial intelligence at scale.

The authors further warn that a more aggressive U.S. posture in the Western Hemisphere — the so-called “Donroe Doctrine” — has increased the risk of overreach. While actions such as the Venezuela operation have delivered short-term political wins, Bremmer and Kupchan caution that heavy-handed economic coercion could fuel regional instability, anti-American sentiment, and trade disruptions, particularly with Mexico.

Across all ten risks, Bremmer and Kupchan’s central conclusion is stark: in 2026, the United States itself has become the largest single source of global uncertainty. As American institutions weaken and trade and security policy grow more transactional and coercive, they warn that geopolitical fragmentation, market volatility, and conflict risks will continue to rise worldwide.

Top Ten Risks for 2026 (Eurasia Group) As identified by Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan in Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2026 report  U.S. political revolution – President Donald Trump’s effort to dismantle institutional checks on executive power and weaponize the state against opponents, reshaping U.S. governance and global leadership.Overpowered – China’s dominance of the “electric stack” (batteries, EVs, power electronics, grids) versus a U.S. strategy still centered on fossil fuels, with implications for industrial competitiveness and AI deployment.The Donroe Doctrine – A revived, expanded Monroe Doctrine marked by U.S. coercion, sanctions, tariffs, and direct action in the Western Hemisphere, raising risks of overreach and regional instability.Europe under siege – Weak, unpopular governments in France, Germany, and the UK facing populist pressure, fiscal strain, and reduced confidence in U.S. security guarantees.Russia’s second front – Escalation of Russian hybrid warfare against NATO, including sabotage, cyberattacks, and election interference, increasing the risk of miscalculation in Europe.State capitalism with American characteristics – Growing politicization of economic policy in the U.S., where political alignment increasingly shapes regulatory outcomes, subsidies, and market access.China’s deflation trap – Persistent deflationary pressures in China that constrain growth, complicate global trade, and heighten the risk of economic nationalism.AI eats its users – Rapid AI adoption outpacing governance, alignment, and regulation, creating economic disruption, security risks, and social instability.Zombie USMCA – A North American trade pact that remains in force but is increasingly undermined by tariffs, migration leverage, and unilateral U.S. actions against Canada and Mexico.The water weapon – Water scarcity and control over critical water resources emerging as tools of coercion, conflict, and geopolitical leverage.

AG MARKETS

—USDA FAS issues export sales correction to unknown destinations: The initial version included reference to a sale of 231,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations (only the unknown destination sale was changed as that was originally announced as 231,000 MT; the China sale was not changed). 

The corrected information is as follows:
• 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to China during 2025/2026 MY (no change)

•206,700 MT soybeans to unknown destinations 2025/2026 MY

—Farmer confidence softens as trade and soybean competition weigh on outlook

Long-term expectations slip in December Ag Economy Barometer despite steady farm finances and improved optimism about the U.S. economy

U.S. farmer sentiment edged lower in December as producers grew more cautious about the long-term outlook, according to the Purdue University / CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall barometer fell 3 points to 136, driven by a weakening in future expectations rather than current farm conditions.

The Future Expectations Index declined 4 points to 140, reflecting rising unease about agricultural trade and global competitiveness, while the Current Conditions Index held steady at 128. Concerns about U.S. soybean exports — particularly growing competition from Brazil — were a central factor behind the more guarded tone.

Farm-level financial expectations, however, remained relatively stable. The Farm Financial Performance Index rose 2 points to 94, as more producers anticipated this year’s results would match last year’s. The Farm Capital Investment Index also increased 2 points to 58, though sentiment toward major purchases stayed cautious, with 60% of respondents still saying December was a bad time to make large investments.

Quote of note: “Even with some stability in expectations for their own operations, producers remain cautious about longer-term decisions,” said Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. He pointed to uncertainty around trade policy and mounting global competition as key influences on farmers’ thinking.

Export views showed a notable split. On a broad level, producers were relatively upbeat, with only 5% expecting U.S. agricultural exports to decline over the next five years — one of the most optimistic readings of the year. That optimism faded when soybeans were considered specifically: 13% of corn and soybean growers now expect soybean exports to fall over the next five years, up from 8% in November, while the share expecting growth dropped from 47% to 39%.

Competition from Brazil loomed large. Fully 84% of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about U.S. soybean competitiveness relative to Brazil, including 45% who said they were very concerned.

Confidence in tariffs as a tool to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy also continued to erode. In December, 54% of respondents said tariffs would have a positive effect, down from 58% in October and 59% in November. Uncertainty is rising as well: 19% of producers said they were unsure about the long-run impact of tariffs, more than double the share recorded when the question was introduced in the spring.

Despite these sector-specific worries, farmers expressed growing optimism about the broader national outlook. A strong 75% of respondents said the U.S. was headed in the “right direction” in December — the highest reading since that question was added to the survey in July.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Close Jan. 6	Change vs  Jan. 5
Corn	March	$4.44	-0.5¢
Soybeans	March	$10.56¼	-5¾¢
Soybean Meal	March	$299.50	-$0.40
Soybean Oil	March	49.40¢	-47 pts
SRW Wheat	March	$5.10½	-2¢
HRW Wheat	March	$5.21½	+¾¢
Spring Wheat	March	$5.67¼	-4¢
Cotton	March	65.06¢	+41 pts
Live Cattle	February	$236.625	+$0.75
Feeder Cattle	March	$359.025	+$3.45
Lean Hogs	February	$85.675	-47½¢

FARM POLICY

—Specialty crop losses mount as costs outpace prices

Farm Bureau economist warns billions in 2025 losses highlight deep safety-net gaps for fruits, nuts and vegetables

Specialty crop producers are facing widespread and deepening financial strain as production costs continue to rise faster than farm-gate prices, while federal safety-net programs leave much of the sector exposed, according to a new analysis (link) by Daniel Munch, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Munch finds that specialty crops generate more than $75 billion in annual farm-gate value, representing over one-third of U.S. crop sales, yet growers have far fewer risk-management and income-support tools than producers of row crops, dairy or livestock. The result is a widening cost-to-revenue gap that has left many specialty crop operations unable to recover full economic costs in 2025 and as a bridge for 2026.

Across six representative crops — almonds, apples, blueberries, lettuce, potatoes and strawberries — the analysis shows billions of dollars in combined losses, even though these crops account for only about one-quarter of total specialty-crop receipts. Rising labor expenses, higher input and compliance costs, weather volatility, pest and disease pressures, and ongoing trade uncertainty have tightened margins across nearly all regions and marketing channels.

A central challenge, Munch notes, is data availability. Unlike major program crops, many specialty crops lack timely, comprehensive cost-of-production and price reporting, making it harder to quickly quantify losses or trigger assistance. That absence of data should not be mistaken for an absence of hardship; rather, it obscures the scale of economic stress being absorbed by growers.

The report highlights stark examples:

• Almond growers remain billions of dollars short of breakeven even with modest price recovery, after years of declining prices and sharply higher operating costs.

• Apple producers face prices well below estimated breakeven levels for fresh-market fruit, particularly in high-density orchard systems with heavy capital and labor requirements.

•Blueberry growers are squeezed by labor-intensive production, rising pest-management costs and growing import competition, leaving many unable to recover long-run costs.

•Lettuce producers confront soaring compliance and labor costs alongside sharply lower prices in 2025, pushing returns below full economic costs.

•Potato growers face a split market, with contract prices barely covering costs and open-market prices collapsing well below breakeven for uncontracted supplies.

• Strawberry operations, among the most labor-intensive crops, continue to see costs exceed prices despite strong consumer demand.

Federal assistance has done little to close the gap. Specialty crops are excluded from the $11 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, and while USDA has announced an additional $1 billion for other crops, Munch argues the funding is both uncertain in scope and far short of documented need.

The overarching conclusion is that specialty-crop losses are not isolated or temporary but structural. Without more responsive risk-management tools and a safety net that reflects the sector’s economic importance, Munch warns that continued losses will erode long-term viability, investment and acreage  — posing risks not only to growers but to the resilience and diversity of the U.S. food system.

USDA PERSONNEL

—USDA taps House Ag Committee veteran Justin Benavidez as chief economist

Former House Ag Committee economist steps into key advisory role amid staffing losses at USDA

USDA named Justin Benavidez, a former senior economist for the House Agriculture Committee, as its new chief economist, the agency announced Tuesday. As chief economist, Benavidez will oversee USDA’s economic research and analysis and serve as a top adviser to USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on conditions in the farm economy.

Rollins said Benavidez brings “strong policy experience, deep roots in production agriculture, and a clear understanding of the economic realities facing farmers and ranchers.”

Benavidez most recently served as chief economist for the Republican majority staff on the House Ag Committee. Earlier in his career, he was an assistant professor and agricultural economist at Texas A&M University.

He succeeds Seth Meyer, who held the USDA post since 2021 and will now lead the University of Missouri Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute.

The appointment comes as USDA continues to grapple with staffing challenges. About 22% of employees in the Office of the Chief Economist departed last year, according to the agency’s inspector general, part of a broader exodus of roughly 20,000 USDA employees as of last June amid the Trump administration’s push to reduce the size and scope of the federal government.

Comments: I first got to know Justin Benavidez while he attended Texas A&M University. He’s a good economist. And he has political training, which will serve him well. He will certainly have to rise to the occasion, but most contacts who know him well think he will. “Honestly, I think he’s more suited to this role than the one on Capitol Hill… Because he’s a market guy at heart and not a policy economist,” said one insider. He started working in Washington as an intern at the House Ag Committee in 2014. At the Agricultural & Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M, Benavidez did a lot of work on cattle markets and cattle pricing. Said another person who knows him: “Justin is a West Texan. Grew up in Tulia. Earned his undergrad, grad, and PhD at Texas A&M under Joe Outlaw’s tutelage. He’s been the chief economist at the House Ag Committee for a while now… sharp as a tack but with the humility of a man raised in west Texas.”

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Wednesday: Oil prices slide after Trump/Venezuela crude deal 

Supply surge expected

Oil prices dropped sharply on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced that Washington had reached an agreement with Venezuela to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, a move markets interpreted as adding supply to an already well-stocked global oil market. Brent crude futures fell about 0.6 % to $60.35 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slid around 0.9 % to $56.61 a barrel, extending losses from the prior session.

Traders are pricing in expectations of ample global supply in 2026, and the potential redirection of Venezuelan barrels — some originally bound for China — to the United States is weighing further on prices. The deal could initially involve rerouting tanker cargoes and tapping storage that has built up amid a U.S. blockade on Venezuelan exports imposed in late 2025.

Analysts say the volume of Venezuelan crude reaching U.S. markets may be smaller than initially feared, which has helped pare some early losses, but expectations of a global surplus — possibly as much as 3 million barrels per day in early 2026 — remain bearish for prices.

Meanwhile, cheap Venezuelan crude — typically sold at deep discounts to Brent — could discourage production growth in higher-cost regions, potentially shaping medium-term supply dynamics even as immediate price pressure persists.

—Tuesday: Oil slides as 2026 supply surplus outlook overshadows Venezuela uncertainty

Brent and WTI fall nearly 2% as analysts focus on ample global supply, while any boost from post-Maduro Venezuela seen as slow and limited

Oil prices fell Tuesday as markets weighed expectations of a well-supplied global market in 2026 against lingering uncertainty over Venezuelan crude following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro. Brent crude settled down $1.06, 1.7%, at $60.70 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $1.19, 2.0%, to $57.13.

Analysts said supply dynamics remain the dominant force. Global oil demand growth slowed to roughly 900,000 barrels per day last year, below the long-term trend of about 1.2 million bpd, while supply growth stayed robust. Between the fourth quarters of 2024 and 2025, OPEC output rose by around 1.6 million bpd and non-OPEC supply increased about 2.4 million bpd, leaving the market well supplied heading into 2026. Morgan Stanley estimates the market could see a surplus of up to 3 million bpd in the first half of the year.

Traders said it remains too early to gauge how Maduro’s capture might affect oil balances. While the development sparked speculation about a potential easing of U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan crude, analysts cautioned that any supply response would likely be gradual. Venezuela averaged about 1.1 million bpd of production last year, with years of sanctions and underinvestment limiting its ability to ramp output quickly despite vast reserves.

President Donald Trump said U.S. oil companies are prepared to invest in Venezuela, and executives are expected to meet with White House officials this week to discuss possible involvement. Even so, analysts at Rystad Energy estimate only about 300,000 bpd of additional Venezuelan supply could come online over the next two to three years without significant international capital, with larger increases requiring sustained long-term investment.

Broader sentiment remains cautious, with traders expecting prices to stay under pressure as surplus conditions become clearer. U.S. crude and product inventories were also expected to have risen last week, according to a Reuters poll, with official government stockpile data due Wednesday.

—Carney dismisses Venezuela oil threat to Canada

Prime minister says any Venezuelan supply rebound would take years and won’t undermine Canadian competitiveness

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said U.S. efforts to revive Venezuela’s oil sector would not pose a serious threat to Canadian producers, arguing Canada’s oil remains competitive because it is low-risk and increasingly cost-efficient. Speaking in Paris, Carney welcomed the removal of Nicolás Maduro and said higher Venezuelan output could eventually benefit that country, but would take years and tens of billions of dollars to materialize. He noted oil-sands costs and emissions are falling and pointed to a new federal-Alberta pipeline deal as key to opening new export markets.

While President Donald Trump has signaled interest in boosting Venezuelan production, Carney said instability and investor caution will limit near-term impact. Canada, which produces about 5 million barrels per day, remains well positioned in the medium and long term, he said.

—Ethanol demand builds on stronger blending and export growth

Higher blend rates and record exports underscore rising fuel ethanol use and growing corn demand

Total demand for U.S. fuel ethanol has continued to rise since 2016, supported by both stronger domestic blending and expanding export markets, according to USDA;s Economic Research Service. Domestically, ethanol — produced primarily from corn — is blended into gasoline to boost octane and meet federal fuel requirements. The ethanol blend rate, which measures ethanol’s share of finished motor gasoline, is a key indicator of blender demand.

USDA ERS data show that in March 2025, the U.S. average blend rate reached 10.1%, the ninth consecutive month above the implied federal minimum of 10%, while the 12-month moving average stood at 10.2%. Blend rates have generally been at or above 10% since 2020, helping to keep domestic ethanol consumption steady despite weaker overall gasoline demand.

Ethanol made up 11.06% of U.S. gasoline consumption in October, marking the first time the monthly blend rate has topped 11%, according to the Renewable Fuels Association, citing U.S. Energy Information Administration data. The RFA said the record level underscores expanding use of higher-ethanol blends such as E15 and flex fuels like E85. The group also pushed back against claims that a so-called “blend wall” limits ethanol to 10% of the gasoline supply. “The numbers also prove that the fictitious ‘blend wall’ is nothing but an imaginary barrier created by those who oppose American-made renewable fuels produced from American-grown crops,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper.

Meanwhile, exports have become a growing source of demand. USDA ERS reports that international demand for U.S. ethanol has risen steadily since 2023. In March 2025, ethanol exports climbed to 196 million gallons — the fifth-highest monthly total on record—up from 110 million gallons in March 2016. This pushed the 12-month average export level to a record 167 million gallons.

Elevated blend rates and rising exports are translating directly into stronger corn use. To meet total fuel ethanol demand in March 2025—including domestic consumption and exports—required the equivalent of about 465 million bushels of corn, roughly 60 million bushels more per month than a decade earlier, underscoring ethanol’s expanding role in supporting U.S. corn demand.

TRADE POLICY

—Florida strawberry growers push rare regional trade case against Mexican imports

Producers seek steep antidumping duties ahead of USMCA review, reviving long-running fight over seasonal produce protections

A coalition of Florida strawberry producers and state officials has filed a petition seeking antidumping (AD) duties on winter strawberries imported from Mexico, arguing that unfairly priced seasonal imports are undercutting U.S. growers who supply the eastern United States.

The petition — filed by the ad hoc group Strawberry Growers for Fair Trade, which includes the Florida Strawberry Growers Association and the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services — asks the U.S. Department of Commerce to impose duties based on an alleged dumping margin of 116.69% on fresh winter strawberries from Mexico.

The growers’ legal counsel, Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney, framed the case as part of broader concerns about low-priced Mexican seasonal produce flooding U.S. markets — an issue the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has flagged for discussion during the upcoming USMCA review scheduled for July. Link for details

On Jan. 6, the U.S. International Trade Commission opened a preliminary investigation (link). Unless timelines are extended, the ITC must issue its initial injury determination by Feb. 17, with its views transmitted to Commerce by Feb. 24.

A key feature of the case is the petitioners’ reliance on a rarely used “regional industry” provision in U.S. trade law. Instead of demonstrating nationwide industry injury, the Florida coalition argues that winter strawberry production constitutes a distinct regional market — covering states east of the Mississippi River plus Texas and Louisiana. According to the petition, more than 90% of winter strawberries grown in the region are sold locally, while production outside the region supplies less than 10% of regional consumption. Link for details

CHINA

—China condemns U.S. Venezuela raid, sees propaganda windfall and strategic openings

Beijing denounces U.S. “hegemonic” action against Maduro, worries about intelligence failure and loans — but sees limited energy risk and potential leverage against Washington in the Western Hemisphere

China’s initial reaction to the U.S. raid and rendition of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was swift and sharply worded. Beijing’s Foreign Ministry said it was “deeply shocked” and condemned what it called a blatant violation of sovereignty and international law — language reiterated again days later. The response fits squarely within China’s long-standing narrative portraying the United States as a destabilizing hegemon, and Beijing appears poised to exploit the episode for global messaging value.

According to China watcher Bill Bishop, the episode also highlights a quiet embarrassment for Beijing: a major intelligence and analytical failure. China’s special envoy reportedly met with Maduro just hours before the U.S. operation, underscoring that Chinese partnerships offer political alignment and financing — but not regime security. That lesson echoes earlier shocks for Beijing, including Syria.

From a material standpoint, China’s direct exposure is limited. Venezuela supplies only a low single-digit share of Chinese oil imports, meaning Beijing can live with either disruption or a post-Maduro rebuilding of the sector — especially if Chinese firms can still buy crude on commercial terms. Outstanding Chinese loans to Caracas are estimated at roughly $10–20 billion: meaningful, but not systemically large. Beijing is expected to push any successor government to honor those debts.

Strategically, the propaganda upside may matter more than the economics. The high-profile U.S. action against a Global South government aligns neatly with Beijing’s messaging about American imperialism — useful fodder for Chinese state media even as similar rhetoric was notably absent after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Bishop argues the operation is unlikely to meaningfully alter Beijing’s calculations on Taiwan; China treats Taiwan as an internal matter and does not see Venezuela as a relevant military precedent.

Beijing may even welcome the risk of a prolonged U.S. entanglement. A Venezuela quagmire could tie down American military and diplomatic resources in the Western Hemisphere, potentially easing pressure in the Indo-Pacific. That said, Chinese officials would be uneasy if knock-on economic pressure destabilized Cuba, another long-standing partner.

Finally, Bishop flags rising concern in Beijing over Washington’s broader regional posture. Comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio signal tougher scrutiny of Chinese, Russian, and Iranian roles in Venezuela and beyond — raising the stakes for Chinese assets and influence across Latin America, including unresolved questions around Chinese-linked infrastructure such as Panama Canal terminals.

Bottom Line: Beijing is condemning Washington loudly, absorbing limited economic pain quietly, and eyeing a propaganda and strategic opening — while bracing for sharper U.S. pressure on Chinese interests in the Western Hemisphere.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Trump warns GOP of impeachment push, urges midterm focus at house retreat

President tells Republicans electoral control is his firewall as Democrats “look for a reason” to impeach

President Donald Trump told House Republicans on Tuesday that holding the majority in the 2026 midterm elections is essential to blocking another impeachment effort, bluntly predicting that Democrats will try to move against him regardless. “You got to win the midterms,” Trump said during remarks at a closed-door retreat for the House GOP caucus in Washington. “They’ll find a reason to impeach me. I’ll get impeached.”

The comments underscore how central impeachment politics already are to Trump’s 2026 strategy, as he presses Republicans to treat the midterms as a defensive campaign to protect his presidency. By framing impeachment as inevitable if Democrats gain control of the House, Trump is seeking to sharpen party discipline, boost fundraising urgency, and keep GOP lawmakers aligned with the White House agenda.

Republican leaders at the retreat emphasized turnout, candidate recruitment, and message discipline in swing districts, with Trump’s remarks reinforcing the argument that control of Congress — not just the White House — will determine whether his second term can proceed without constant investigations and impeachment votes.

The warning also reflects Trump’s expectation that Democrats would revive impeachment proceedings if they retake the House, potentially over foreign policy actions, executive authority, or ethics disputes. For now, Trump is signaling to Republicans that the midterms are not just about policy margins, but about political survival — for both the party and his presidency.

—Supreme Court delay locks in Louisiana’s 2026 congressional map

With justices set to rule in late spring, election deadlines and a new primary system leave no time for redistricting

Louisiana will use its current six-district congressional map for the 2026 midterm elections after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to issue an expedited ruling in a closely watched redistricting case by the end of 2025.

Republican lawmakers had hoped the court would act sooner, allowing time for another special session to redraw district lines before candidate qualifying. Instead, the justices are expected to rule during their normal late-spring window, effectively freezing the existing map for this election cycle.

State legislators had already convened a special session in October to push election deadlines back by a month, betting on an earlier decision. That gamble failed. State Sen. Caleb Kleinpeter (R-Port Allen), a co-sponsor of the calendar changes, said there are now no plans for another special session or for altering the map ahead of 2026.

Timing constraints are central to the outcome. Louisiana is shifting this year to a closed party primary system, which moved candidate qualifying from July to February. With qualifying scheduled for Feb. 11–13, lawmakers no longer have a viable window to redraw districts even if the court rules in the spring.

At issue is Louisiana v. Callais, a challenge to a second majority-Black congressional district that GOP lawmakers created in 2024 after a federal court found the state’s 2022 map unconstitutional. Prior to that redraw, only one of Louisiana’s six House districts favored a Black candidate, despite Black residents making up nearly one-third of the state’s population.

The case has become a broader test of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. State Attorney General Liz Murrill now argues that race-conscious redistricting is no longer required to ensure fair representation and instead violates the Constitution’s 14th and 15th Amendments.

Lawmakers’ expectations were shaped by the court’s unusual handling of the case. After initially hearing arguments, the justices delayed a decision, ordered a second round of oral arguments in October, and pushed the ruling into the current term — fueling GOP hopes of an early outcome that never materialized.

Critics have questioned whether the costly October special session was justified without firm guidance from the court. Republican leaders countered at the time that no official timeline had been provided and acknowledged the calendar changes would be moot if a decision came too late.

Under the locked-in schedule, congressional primaries will be held May 16, runoffs (if needed) on June 27, and the general election on Nov. 3 — using the same map now under Supreme Court review.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

—New dietary guidelines poised to crack down on sugar and processed foods

Draft federal nutrition advice would cap added sugars per meal, reinforce limits on ultra-processed foods, and reshape school meals nationwide

The Trump administration is expected to roll out updated U.S. Dietary Guidelines later this week that would urge Americans — especially children — to sharply reduce added sugar intake, according to reports. The draft guidance would recommend consuming no more than 10 grams of added sugars per meal, while maintaining the longstanding cap of no more than 10% of daily calories from added sugars for people over age two.

Of note: Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will celebrate release of the rewrite of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans on Thursday morning, HHS said in a media advisory today. Lobbyists expect the next edition of the Dietary Guidelines to be released today.

The forthcoming guidelines align closely with the views of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has repeatedly criticized sugar and ultra-processed foods as major contributors to chronic disease. The five-year update is jointly issued by Department of Health and Human Services and USDA.

Beyond sugar, the guidance is expected to urge Americans to avoid highly processed foods, which dominate much of the U.S. packaged-food industry. While many Americans do not strictly follow federal dietary advice, the changes could accelerate an existing consumer shift away from sweetened cereals, full-sugar sodas, and other packaged staples. By comparison, a single 12-ounce can of regular soda contains nearly four times the proposed per-meal sugar limit.

The new edition may also raise recommended protein intake above the current 0.8 grams per kilogram of body weight, but is likely to leave intact the 10% cap on calories from saturated fat, despite recent public debate over whether saturated fats have been overly vilified. Altering that limit would have put the administration at odds with decades of mainstream cardiovascular research.

The Dietary Guidelines play an outsized role in federal nutrition policy, shaping meals served to nearly 30 million children through school lunch programs and influencing food choices across other government assistance programs. That makes implementation a challenge — particularly as the administration presses schools to curb ultra-processed foods.

School nutrition groups warn that many districts lack the kitchens, equipment, and staffing needed to prepare more meals from scratch. As a result, they are urging Congress to provide additional funding to help schools meet stricter standards.

In parallel, U.S. Food and Drug Administration and USDA have begun work on defining what qualifies as “ultra-processed food,” though Kennedy has acknowledged the government may never settle on a single, formal definition.

Several of these anticipated changes — including tougher language on added sugars, a possible protein boost, and continuity on saturated fat limits — were first reported by the Food Fix report, which previewed key elements of the forthcoming guidelines ahead of their official release.

HEALTHCARE

—Why flu feels everywhere this winter — and why it’s not a “super flu”

A fast-spreading H3N2 variant known as subclade K is driving high case counts and hospital strain, even as individual illness severity remains typical for seasonal flu.

This winter’s flu season feels relentless — crowded emergency rooms, widespread illness, and record hospitalizations in places like New York — but experts say it’s not because the virus itself has become unusually deadly. Instead, the surge is being driven by subclade K, a new variant of the H3N2 influenza A virus that is exceptionally good at infecting people.

What is subclade K? Subclade K is a newly dominant offshoot of the H3N2 flu virus, a strain historically associated with tougher flu seasons, especially for older adults. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, nearly all flu cases so far this season are H3N2 — and almost all of those are subclade K.

The CDC estimates that so far this season:

• ~11 million people have been sick

• ~120,000 have been hospitalized

• ~5,000 have died, including nine children

Why does it feel worse than usual? The key factor is sheer volume, not severity. Subclade K carries a cluster of mutations that help it evade existing immune defenses from past infections or vaccination. That immune escape has allowed it to spread rapidly and infect large numbers of people at once, overwhelming health systems.

Of note: Some countries — including Japan, Hong Kong, and the U.K. — experienced unusually early flu seasons tied to subclade K. In the U.S., however, timing has been closer to normal, with cases accelerating around Thanksgiving, a common seasonal inflection point.

Is this a “super flu”? No. Experts stress that “super flu” is not a scientific term, and there is no evidence that subclade K causes more severe illness on an individual level. The CDC says current data show illness severity is comparable to typical seasonal flu — unpleasant and dangerous for vulnerable groups, but not fundamentally different. It is because many more cases are happening at the same time.

What about the flu shot? This year’s vaccine likely offers less protection against infection from H3N2 than hoped. Subclade K emerged after global experts selected the strains for the 2025–26 Northern Hemisphere vaccine, meaning it’s not a close match. That said:

• Flu shots still reduce the risk of severe illness and hospitalization

• Early data from the U.K. suggest vaccine effectiveness against H3N2 is 72–75% in children and 32–39% in adults, which is typical for H3N2 seasons

• Protection can wane over time, so effectiveness later in the season may differ

Compounding the problem, flu vaccination rates have dropped sharply since the Covid-19 pandemic. Only about 43% of U.S. children are vaccinated this season, down from nearly 64% in 2019–20, leaving much of the population exposed.

Are treatments still effective? Yes — and that’s an important bright spot. Subclade K has not developed resistance to antiviral medications. Experts strongly encourage high-risk individuals to seek antivirals early if they become sick, and even consider preventive treatment if someone in their household has flu.

Bottom Line: This winter’s flu wave feels overwhelming because subclade K is exceptionally good at spreading — not because it’s more lethal. Hospitals are under pressure, and activity is expected to continue for several more weeks. For individuals, though, it remains regular flu — which is bad enough — and vaccination plus timely antiviral treatment still matter.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Storm system to bring snow to the Four Corners region as well as widespread showers and thunderstorms from the Plains to the Midwest/Mississippi Valley Thursday… …Flash flooding and severe weather threat across the Lower Mississippi  and Tennessee Valleys Friday… …Heavy mountain snow continues for the Cascades as well as portions of the Interior West through Thursday… …Well above average temperatures continue for much of the central and eastern U.S. while the western U.S. trends chillier.