USTR Flags China Soybean Compliance Ahead of Trump/Xi Summit

Rollins talks fertilizer, CCC funding and other issues at hearing | Rollins in Texas today re: NWS | Greer goes to Mexico for Monday USMA meeting | China confirms FMD cases

LINKS

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 11
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 11

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 17, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— USTR flags China soybean compliance ahead of Trump/Xi summit: Greer elevates enforcement of China’s soybean purchase commitments as a central issue ahead of the May summit, signaling agriculture will anchor broader trade pressure on Beijing.

— China confirms rare Foot-and-Mouth Disease strain: First-ever SAT1 outbreak across distant regions raises concerns about underreporting and potential disruption to global livestock and feed markets.

— U.S. blockade strategy targets Iran’s oil lifeline: Trump administration escalates economic pressure by restricting Iranian oil flows, aiming to force negotiations while risking longer-term supply shocks.

— Macron and Starmer convene Hormuz security summit: European leaders coordinate response to ongoing disruptions, with plans to brief Trump on stabilizing global energy transit routes.

— Israel/Hizbollah ceasefire boosts de-escalation hopes: Temporary truce opens a diplomatic window for broader U.S.–Iran negotiations, though risks of renewed conflict remain.
— Rollins signals fertilizer reshoring push: USDA eyes tariff revenue to expand domestic production and counter rising input costs amid global supply disruptions.
—Commerce slightly eases duties on Russian phosphate fertilizer: Annual review trims subsidy rate for major exporter while broader tariff debate continues.

— Biodiesel undercuts fossil diesel: Iran-driven oil shock flips fuel pricing dynamics, accelerating global demand for biofuels and tightening ag markets.

— House GOP pushes late-April farm bill vote: Leadership accelerates timeline, but Senate uncertainty and partisan divides continue to cloud final passage.
— USDA launches sterile fly facility in Texas: New biosecurity investment targets screwworm threat and strengthens domestic livestock protection.
— FDA authorizes emergency use of four New World Screwworm treatments: Agency clears animal drugs from Boehringer Ingelheim and Health and Hygiene amid elevated NWS threat.

— Greer heads to Mexico for USMCA talks: High-level meetings focus on autos, agriculture, and supply chain rules ahead of formal trade pact review.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Futures point to a cautious, slightly higher open as easing oil prices support sentiment while tech lags.

— Equities yesterday: S&P 500 and Nasdaq extend record highs amid strong momentum, with yields rising on inflation concerns.

— Dollar weakens on de-escalation: Cooling oil prices and reduced safe-haven demand push the dollar toward a third weekly loss.

— Miran signals fewer rate cuts: Rising energy-driven inflation and Fed leadership uncertainty point to a more cautious policy path.

AG MARKETS

— Wheat rallies on weather and fertilizer stress: Global dryness and Iran-linked input shortages drive the strongest weekly gain in months.

— Ag markets snapshot: Mixed grain trade with wheat strength offsetting weakness in corn, soybeans, and livestock futures.

ROLLINS HEARING

— USDA budget and policy clash: Lawmakers press Rollins on cuts, CCC funding, input costs, and rural impacts amid deep partisan divisions.

USDA STAFFING

— Farmers warn USDA staffing cuts threaten conservation programs and farm viability: More than 500 producers urge Congress to restore agency workforce and funding as Farm Bill and budget debates intensify.

CDC NOMINEE

— Trump nominates Erica Schwartz to lead CDC: Pick signals shift toward traditional public health leadership amid vaccine policy tensions.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Friday oil pullback: Ceasefire hopes ease prices, but long-term supply disruptions keep markets tight.

— Thursday oil rally: Persistent Hormuz disruptions and inventory draws reinforce bullish supply concerns.

TRADE POLICY

— USTR seeks funding boost: Greer pushes for more resources to enforce trade deals, with China compliance a top priority.
— USDA allocates $285 million in America First Trade Promotion funds to 55 groups: Top commodity organizations secure largest awards as USDA expands export market development push.

CHINA

— China expands zero-tariff access to Africa: Broad trade liberalization move aims to deepen ties and secure supply chains.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY
 

— PepsiCo earnings beat on pricing reset: Lower snack prices and portfolio shifts revive demand and support growth outlook.

HEALTHCARE

— RFK Jr. faces bipartisan backlash: Lawmakers question vaccine messaging and public health direction amid rising scrutiny.

CONGRESS

— Vought dodges Iran war cost estimates: Budget chief faces pressure from lawmakers demanding transparency on rising conflict costs.

— Forest Service reorganization scrutinized: Bipartisan concerns mount over relocation, budget cuts, and workforce impacts.

WEATHER

— Severe weather and snow risks: Storm threats span Plains and Mississippi Valley while late-season snow hits Rockies and Northern Plains.

TOP STORIES—USTR flags China soybean compliance ahead of Trump/Xi summitGreer signals enforcement focus as lawmakers raise concerns over unmet purchase commitments China’s adherence to its agricultural trade commitments emerged as a central issue during the hearing, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer outlining plans to closely monitor Beijing’s soybean purchases. Responding to Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.), Greer said the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) intends to track China’s compliance with its pledge to import at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028. The issue carries growing urgency for U.S. producers. Mrvan relayed concerns from farmers in his district who say China’s market remains effectively closed to U.S. soybeans despite the formal commitment, particularly as the new planting season gets underway. The gap between pledged and actual purchases has raised doubts about enforcement mechanisms and the reliability of China as a long-term export market. Greer indicated that the matter will be elevated diplomatically, confirming that soybean purchases will be a priority topic at the May 14-15 summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Upshot: The emphasis suggests the administration is positioning agricultural trade enforcement — particularly around soybeans — as a core component of its broader strategy toward China, signaling that compliance issues will be addressed at the highest levels of engagement. See the Trade Policy section for more coverage of Greer’s testimony to Congress this week.—China confirms rare Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) strain as outbreak raises transparency concernsSimultaneous cases across distant regions and emergency vaccine deployment fuel fears of wider spread Chinese authorities have confirmed outbreaks of South African Type 1 (SAT1) foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in multiple regions, marking the first time this strain has been detected inside the country — a development with potentially significant implications for livestock markets and global protein supply chains. According to reporting from Caixin Global, confirmed cases have emerged in Yining County in Xinjiang and Gulang County in Gansu, two locations roughly 2,400 kilometers apart. The geographic separation has raised immediate questions among analysts and industry observers about how the virus appeared nearly simultaneously in distant regions. FMD is a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals — including cattle, sheep, and pigs — and the SAT1 strain is particularly concerning due to its unfamiliarity within China’s livestock system. Mortality rates in young cattle can reach up to 50%, increasing the economic risk for producers already navigating tight margins and volatile feed costs. Meanwhile, commentary from the agriculture-focused Dim Sums blog has suggested the possibility of broader, underreported spread. The blog points to the implausibility of two isolated outbreaks occurring at the same time, alongside reports of emergency vaccine distribution, as indicators that the virus may already be more widespread than officially acknowledged. The situation has drawn comparisons to the early stages of African swine fever in China nearly a decade ago, when initial reports understated the scale of infections before the disease ultimately decimated the country’s hog herd. Analysts note similar patterns — including limited early disclosure, unclear transmission pathways, and muted state media coverage. The origin of the SAT1 strain in China remains unclear. The strain is typically associated with sub-Saharan Africa, making its appearance in East Asia particularly unusual and raising questions about biosecurity gaps, import channels, or illegal animal product movements. From a market perspective, the outbreak introduces fresh uncertainty into global livestock and feed markets. China remains the world’s largest importer of feed grains and protein, meaning any disruption to its domestic herd could ripple into soybean demand, feed consumption, and meat trade flows. Meanwhile, containment efforts — including vaccination campaigns and potential movement restrictions — will be closely watched for signals on whether authorities can prevent a repeat of past large-scale livestock disease shocks.—U.S. blockade strategy targets Iran’s oil lifeline amid Hormuz standoffTrump administration bets economic pressure will force Tehran back to negotiations The Trump administration is intensifying a sweeping naval blockade aimed at crippling Iran’s oil sector, in what officials describe as a calculated effort to force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations over its nuclear program. U.S. officials say the strategy hinges on cutting off Iran’s primary revenue stream — crude oil exports — by expanding interdictions beyond Iranian ports to include the broader “shadow fleet” of tankers used to evade sanctions. The Pentagon has signaled it is prepared to board vessels globally if they are linked to Iranian oil shipments, marking a significant escalation in enforcement. The economic pressure campaign, referred to internally as “Economic Fury,” is designed to accelerate financial strain on Tehran. With exports effectively stalled, Iran faces the prospect of rapidly filling its onshore storage capacity — a scenario known in the industry as hitting “tank tops.” Analysts estimate this could occur within two to three weeks if exports remain constrained, forcing Iran to shut in production. Such shutdowns carry long-term risks, analysts note. Oil wells that are taken offline under pressure can suffer lasting damage, reducing future output and potentially rendering some reserves uneconomical. This raises the stakes for Tehran, as prolonged disruption could impair its energy sector for years. Meanwhile, Iran retains some short-term buffers. The Wall Street Journal reports that roughly 160 million barrels of crude are already stored on tankers at sea, and some shipments remain positioned near buyers in Asia, allowing continued — albeit limited — sales. Iran has also demonstrated resilience under sanctions, maintaining export levels near 1.87 million barrels per day in March, roughly in line with the previous year. Still, analysts suggest the blockade could erode one of Iran’s key advantages — its reliance on opaque trading networks that have historically allowed it to bypass sanctions. By targeting these channels directly, the U.S. is attempting to neutralize that workaround and tighten the economic vise. Iran’s response so far has been restrained, though options remain on the table. These include escalating military activity, leveraging regional proxies such as Houthi forces to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, or attempting to force confrontations by pushing tankers through contested waters. The Trump administration’s broader objective is to strip Iran of its leverage over global energy markets — particularly its ability to threaten flows through the Strait of Hormuz — while increasing the economic cost of continued defiance. However, experts caution that while the pressure is significant, it may not produce a rapid capitulation given Iran’s history of withstanding prolonged sanctions. Ultimately, the strategy reflects a shift from direct military confrontation to economic coercion, with Washington betting that sustained financial strain will succeed where earlier efforts have not. Meanwhile, President Trump told reporters on Thursday that he might visit Islamabad, Pakistan, if a deal is reached there between the U.S. and Iran. “I would go to Pakistan,” Trump said when asked if he would visit the country, which has played a mediating role between the U.S. and Iran, to seal the deal.—Macron and Starmer convene emergency summit on Strait of Hormuz securityEuropean leaders move to coordinate response as U.S. strategy and global energy flows hang in the balance French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are set to meet Friday in a high-level summit focused on securing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint that remains under severe disruption amid the ongoing Iran conflict. The meeting reflects mounting European concern over the sustained instability in the waterway, through which roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments typically pass. Traffic remains well below normal levels, with ongoing U.S. enforcement actions and Iranian threats continuing to constrain flows and elevate risks for commercial shipping. At the center of the discussions is a potential European-led maritime security framework aimed at stabilizing transit through the strait. This could include coordinated naval patrols, enhanced intelligence-sharing, and possible deconfliction mechanisms with regional actors to reduce the risk of escalation. Both leaders are expected to align on a unified approach before presenting their recommendations directly to President Donald Trump. The planned briefing to Trump underscores the importance of transatlantic coordination at a moment when U.S. policy — particularly the blockade of Iranian exports — remains a primary driver of supply disruptions. European officials are increasingly concerned that prolonged constraints in Hormuz could trigger deeper energy shortages, further price volatility, and broader economic spillovers across global markets. Meanwhile, the summit signals a more assertive European posture in safeguarding critical trade routes, particularly as the conflict’s ripple effects extend beyond energy into food security, shipping insurance costs, and industrial supply chains. Upshot: The outcome of the Macron/Starmer meeting could shape the next phase of international involvement in the region, including whether a broader coalition effort emerges to stabilize one of the world’s most strategically vital corridors.—Israel/Hizbollah ceasefire boosts odds of wider de-escalationTemporary truce in Lebanon — and potential White House talks — seen as key steps toward a broader U.S./Iran agreement Israel has agreed to halt its war with Hizbollah in Lebanon under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, a move reports say could improve prospects for a broader deal between Washington and Tehran.The roughly 10-day truce is designed to pause fighting and create space for diplomacy, particularly as the U.S. pushes to stabilize regional flashpoints ahead of further talks with Iran. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has indicated he is working to bring Israeli and Lebanese leaders together for potential talks at the White House in the coming weeks — a step that, if realized, would mark a significant escalation in diplomatic engagement and could reinforce the ceasefire framework. While the truce may reduce immediate escalation risks and support ongoing U.S./Iran negotiations, it remains fragile. Israel has maintained its right to respond to threats, and Hizbollah’s compliance is conditional. For now, the agreement represents a tactical pause rather than a lasting resolution — but one that could shape the trajectory of wider regional diplomacy.—Rollins signals tariff-funded push to reshore fertilizer productionAdministration eyes tens of billions in tariff revenue to counter price surge and supply risks USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration is preparing to use tariff revenue to fund a major initiative aimed at boosting domestic fertilizer production, with an announcement potentially coming within days. Speaking before the House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee, Rollins framed rising fertilizer costs as an “overarching economic pending disaster” and emphasized a coordinated effort across the administration to reshore production capacity. See separate section below for more from the hearing.  The proposal follows high-level discussions involving Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett alongside major fertilizer companies, signaling a whole-of-government push to expand U.S. supply. Rollins pointed to a large pool of tariff-generated funds — estimated at roughly $184 billion this fiscal year — as a key financing source, though some of that revenue remains under legal scrutiny following a court order requiring refunds tied to earlier tariff authorities. The initiative is designed as a medium-term solution, with new production capacity expected to come online within 12 to 18 months. In the interim, the administration is pursuing stopgap measures to ease supply constraints and price pressures, including a waiver of the Jones Act to facilitate fertilizer transport and the reopening of supply channels from Venezuela. Fertilizer markets have tightened sharply amid global disruptions, with nitrogen prices rising more than 30% and urea climbing as much as 47%, reflecting constrained flows through key trade routes and broader supply imbalances. Roughly 20% to 30% of global fertilizer trade typically moves through the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. Rollins, however, attributed much of the price escalation to structural issues within the industry, arguing that consolidation among a small number of firms has weakened competition and amplified cost pressures for farmers. She suggested that increasing domestic production — paired with efforts to address market concentration — will be central to stabilizing input costs and strengthening long-term U.S. agricultural resilience. Quote of note: “I don’t want to over-promise,” she said during a hearing on USDA’s budget proposal. “These prices will not come down anytime in the next couple of days or weeks. It may take us a couple months to get them back down, but we’re working on it.” —Commerce slightly eases duties on Russian phosphate fertilizerAnnual review trims subsidy rate for major exporter while broader tariff debate continues The U.S. Department of Commerce has modestly reduced countervailing duties on Russian phosphate fertilizer produced by Joint Stock Company Apatit, signaling a slight shift in its assessment of state support while maintaining that subsidies persist. Following its annual review, Commerce set a new subsidy rate of 12.71%, down from 18.21% last year. The revised rate reflects a lower estimate of government backing for Apatit — a key subsidiary of PhosAgro — though officials concluded that subsidization remains significant enough to justify continued duties. Apatit dominates Russia’s phosphate sector, holding roughly 80% market share, according to the International Fertilizer Industry Association, and serves as one of the country’s primary exporters into global markets. Meanwhile, U.S. agriculture groups are intensifying calls to ease or remove tariffs on imported phosphate fertilizers — including those from Russia and Morocco — arguing that elevated input costs are straining farmers amid broader supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and global shipping constraints. Bottom Line: While the duty reduction offers a marginal cost reprieve, the broader tariff framework — and its impact on fertilizer affordability — remains unresolved and increasingly central to U.S. farm policy discussions.—Biodiesel undercuts fossil diesel as Iran war disrupts global fuel marketsOil supply shock flips pricing dynamics, triggering global scramble for alternative fuels The Financial Times reports that the ongoing Iran war — and the resulting squeeze on oil supplies — has pushed biodiesel prices below conventional diesel for the first time in key markets, triggering an aggressive global rush to secure alternative fuel supplies. At the core of the shift is a severe disruption to global oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which has tightened diesel availability and driven sharp price increases across refined petroleum products. Meanwhile, biofuels — which are typically priced at a premium to fossil diesel due to feedstock and processing costs — have not risen as quickly, creating a rare inversion in relative pricing. Diesel prices have surged alongside crude as refiners struggle to source feedstocks and maintain output, while shipping constraints and geopolitical risk premiums have compounded the squeeze. Biodiesel pricing, by contrast, has remained more anchored to agricultural inputs such as soybean oil and palm oil rather than crude benchmarks, allowing it to briefly become the cheaper option — an unusual dynamic now driving substitution across fuel markets. Comparable market signals reinforce the trend. In Brazil, diesel prices surged sharply following the onset of the conflict, overtaking biodiesel contract prices and flipping the spread for the first time in years. This inversion is now reshaping procurement behavior globally, as fuel distributors, industrial users, and traders move quickly to secure biodiesel supplies and increase blending where infrastructure allows. The Financial Times underscores that biofuels are no longer functioning solely as a policy-driven supplement to fossil fuels but are instead emerging as a scarce and strategically important substitute in the current supply-constrained environment. Meanwhile, the broader energy crisis continues to tighten inventories and reinforce demand for alternatives as Middle East disruptions persist. The implications for agriculture and policy are significant. Stronger demand for soybean oil, canola, and palm oil is expected to lift vegetable oil prices and improve crush margins, directly linking energy market stress to farm-level economics. Meanwhile, governments are facing renewed pressure to expand blending mandates and accelerate domestic biofuel production, even as refiners warn that higher mandates could exacerbate fuel price volatility in an already strained market. Bottom Line: The Iran war has not only driven oil prices higher but has also fundamentally altered relative fuel economics. By pushing biodiesel below fossil diesel on a price basis, the crisis is accelerating a global shift toward biofuels, tightening agricultural markets, and reinforcing the strategic role of renewable fuels in energy security. —House Republicans push late-April Farm Bill 2.0 vote amid tight timelineGOP leaders are accelerating floor action, but Senate uncertainty and partisan divisions remain major obstacles House Republicans are moving to bring a long-delayed farm bill to the floor by the end of April, signaling a renewed push to advance the legislation before Congress shifts fully into appropriations season. The House Rules Committee has begun laying the groundwork for floor consideration of HR 7567. Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) has directed lawmakers to submit amendments by April 22, with the committee potentially meeting the week of April 27 to clear the bill for a full House vote. The timing reflects mounting pressure from President Donald Trump, who has urged Congress to accelerate farm bill reauthorization after the House Ag Committee advanced its version earlier this spring. Leadership appears eager to act before legislative attention turns fully to fiscal year appropriations. A House floor vote will also force Democrats into a politically sensitive position ahead of the midterm elections. While many have criticized provisions in the Republican-led bill, a notable bloc of Democrats supported advancing the measure out of committee — signaling potential, but uncertain, bipartisan crossover support. Despite momentum in the House, the path forward remains complicated. The Senate has yet to release its version of the farm bill, though John Boozman (R-Ark.), chair of the Senate Ag Committee, has indicated a proposal is forthcoming this spring. Any final bill will require at least 60 votes in the Senate, meaning Republicans will need Democratic backing — particularly given resistance from some fiscal conservatives over the bill’s cost. The broader political dynamic has also shifted. In 2025, Republicans increased spending on select farm programs while cutting nutrition assistance — a core Democratic priority — as part of a broader tax-and-spending package. That divergence continues to complicate negotiations. The stakes are high as lawmakers face a September 2026 deadline, when key farm bill programs begin to expire. Without action, Congress would need to pass an unprecedented fourth one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, underscoring the urgency behind the current push.  —Rollins, Hoskins to launch U.S. sterile fly facility to combat screwworm threatUSDA expands domestic biosecurity efforts with Texas-based production site aimed at protecting the U.S. cattle herd USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and USDA Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs Dudley Hoskins are set to be in Texas today to break ground on a new domestic sterile fly production facility, a key step in strengthening U.S. defenses against the re-emerging threat of the New World screwworm. The facility — to be operated by the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service — will be located at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas, and is designed to produce sterile male flies used to suppress and ultimately eradicate screwworm populations through biological control methods. The initiative marks a significant expansion of USDA’s domestic preparedness strategy, reducing reliance on foreign production and enabling faster response times in the event of an outbreak. The screwworm — a parasitic fly whose larvae infest and feed on the living tissue of livestock — poses a severe risk to cattle, wildlife, and even humans if left unchecked. USDA officials have increasingly emphasized the need for proactive containment measures, particularly as concerns grow over cross-border transmission risks and the potential economic impact on the U.S. cattle industry. The sterile insect technique, which involves releasing sterilized males to disrupt reproduction cycles, has historically been a cornerstone of successful eradication campaigns. Upshot: The Texas facility underscores a broader push by the Trump administration to bolster agricultural biosecurity infrastructure within the United States, aligning with ongoing efforts to safeguard livestock supply chains and maintain export stability especially as the administration continues to mull a phased reopening of the U.S./Mexico border. —FDA authorizes emergency use of four New World Screwworm treatmentsAgency clears animal drugs from Boehringer Ingelheim and Health and Hygiene amid elevated NWS threat The Food and Drug Administration issued four Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) for animal drugs to prevent and treat New World screwworm (NWS) infestations, expanding the toolkit available to livestock producers and veterinarians amid heightened biosecurity concerns. According to the Federal Register notice (link), three of the authorizations apply to products from Boehringer Ingelheim Animal Health USA, while a fourth covers a treatment from Health and Hygiene Ltd. The Boehringer products — including ivermectin (Ivomec), NexGard, and NexGard Combo — are authorized primarily for use in cattle, dogs, and cats to either prevent or treat infestations caused by NWS larvae (myiasis). These treatments target infections at critical points such as wounds, birth, or castration, where animals are most vulnerable. Meanwhile, the Health and Hygiene product — an antiseptic wound spray with insecticide — has a broader scope, authorized for use across multiple species including cattle, horses, sheep, goats, deer, and various bird species, as well as exotic and zoo animals. The authorizations stem from a determination by the Department of Health and Human Services in August 2025 that NWS poses a significant potential public health emergency with implications for national security and U.S. agricultural interests. That declaration enabled FDA to deploy its emergency authority to allow the use of products not fully approved for these specific applications when no adequate alternatives are available. FDA said the emergency use decisions were based on the totality of scientific evidence, concluding that the potential benefits of these treatments outweigh the risks under current conditions. The authorizations also impose strict conditions on distribution, labeling, and adverse event reporting, and will remain in effect only for the duration of the declared emergency. —Greer heads to Mexico City as USMCA review talks intensifySteel, autos, agriculture, and supply chain rules top agenda ahead of formal pact review U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will travel to Mexico City Sunday for high-level talks with Mexican officials, marking a key step in preparations for the upcoming review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). The visit — scheduled for Monday — will include a meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, underscoring the political weight behind what are shaping up to be consequential negotiations over the future of North American trade integration. Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said discussions will focus on core industrial sectors and structural trade rules, including steel, aluminum, autos, and agriculture. At the center of the talks are rules of origin requirements and efforts to reduce reliance on imports from non-USMCA countries — a priority that aligns with the Trump administration’s broader push to “reshore” supply chains and tighten regional trade compliance. These provisions are especially critical for the auto sector, where content thresholds determine tariff-free access across North America. Meanwhile, agriculture is expected to feature prominently, given its sensitivity in all three countries and its role in broader trade enforcement — particularly as U.S. officials continue to scrutinize market access and compliance issues tied to prior commitments. The Mexico City meetings build on earlier groundwork laid in March, when Ebrard and a Mexican delegation traveled to Washington to launch technical discussions with U.S. counterparts. Greer has also engaged with Canadian officials in parallel, signaling a coordinated trilateral effort as the formal USMCA review approaches. Of note: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Mexico’s Finance Minister Edgar Amador met on Tuesday, according to a statement. They continued talks on critical minerals and USMCA’s review process. Bessent also “encouraged” the Mexican minister and his staff to work with Treasury on combating drug trafficking. The USMCA review — mandated under the agreement’s terms — will serve as a pivotal checkpoint for the pact, potentially reshaping trade flows, regulatory alignment, and enforcement mechanisms across North America at a time of heightened geopolitical and economic tension. Link to CRS report on Mexico.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: U.S. equity futures point to a mixed-to-slightly higher open Friday. The tone reflects cautious optimism tied to easing oil prices and tentative signs of de-escalation in the Iran conflict, while tech names lag early trading. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers slated to speak: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller. On Saturday, April 18, the Fed’s external communications blackout period begins ahead of its April 28-29 rate-setting meeting (FOMC).

—Equities/financial markets yesterday: All three of the major indexes rose on Thursday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new intraday and closing highs. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both notched their second consecutive all-time closing highs, while the Nasdaq clinched its 12th straight session of gains, its longest winning streak since 2009. The dollar climbed against major currencies, retracing recent losses on a technical recovery. U.S. Treasury yields rose as climbing crude prices heightened inflation fears. Oil prices rose on supply concerns, while gold steadied.

Equity Index	Closing Price  April 16	Point Difference  from April 15	% Difference  from April 15
Dow	48,578.72	+115.00	+0.24%
Nasdaq	24,102.70	+86.69	+0.36%
S&P 500	7,041.28	+18.33	+0.26%

—Dollar weakens as Iran de-escalation eases inflation pressure

Cooling oil prices and reduced safe-haven demand push the dollar toward a third weekly loss as Fed outlook softens

The U.S. dollar index steadied above 98 on Friday but remained on track for a third straight weekly decline, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing and reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

President Donald Trump signaled growing confidence that the conflict with Iran could soon come to an end, stating that Tehran had agreed to key conditions — including abandoning nuclear ambitions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, a development that could create momentum for broader U.S./Iran negotiations.

Meanwhile, the de-escalation has weighed on oil prices, helping to ease inflation expectations that had surged during the height of the conflict. Lower energy costs are reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary stance, contributing to the dollar’s recent weakness.

Analysts note that uncertainty remains elevated, cautioning that it should limit how much guidance the Fed provides on its policy path. Still, he indicated that the baseline outlook continues to include rate cuts over the longer term.

Bottom Line: The combination of easing geopolitical risk, declining oil prices, and a more patient Fed stance is shifting market expectations — weakening the dollar while signaling a potentially less restrictive monetary environment ahead.

—Stephen Miran signals fewer rate cuts as inflation pressures mount

Energy-driven inflation and Fed leadership uncertainty complicate 2026 policy path

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran signaled a shift in the central bank’s outlook, indicating he may scale back expectations for interest rate cuts this year as inflation risks intensify. Speaking at a Washington forum, Miran said he is reconsidering his projection of four rate cuts in 2026, now suggesting the total could fall closer to three as the inflation picture becomes more complex.

The reassessment comes as energy prices surge in the wake of the Iran conflict, pushing headline inflation higher. Consumer prices rose 3.3% year-over-year in March, reflecting the growing impact of elevated oil and energy costs. While core inflation remains relatively contained, the broader trend has introduced new uncertainty into the Fed’s policy calculus.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed a more cautious tone, noting that delaying rate cuts until there is greater clarity on geopolitical developments — particularly the Iran situation — may be warranted. His comments mark a shift from earlier calls for more immediate monetary easing to support economic growth.

Political pressure on the Fed continues to build. President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged lower interest rates and has intensified criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even suggesting he could move to remove him if he does not step down when his term expires in mid-May.

Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounds Trump’s nominee to lead the central bank, Kevin Warsh, whose confirmation faces political hurdles in the Senate. The nomination is further complicated by an ongoing Justice Department investigation tied to Powell, adding another layer of instability to the Fed’s leadership transition. Also, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said she believes the holes in Warsh’s financial disclosures are not in compliance with Senate ethics rules, and pressed for a delay in confirmation hearings. The hearing is currently slated for April 21. Meanwhile, the New York Times weighed in on the topic with an editorial (link).

The Fed, which cut rates three times in 2025, has held policy steady so far in 2026. Meanwhile, the combination of persistent inflation risks, geopolitical volatility, and leadership uncertainty is clouding the path forward — raising the likelihood of a more measured and cautious approach to rate cuts in the months ahead.

AG MARKETS

—Wheat rallies on weather stress and fertilizer disruptions

Iran-linked input shortages and global dryness drive strongest weekly gain since February

Wheat futures are posting their biggest weekly rally in nearly two months, as worsening weather conditions across key growing regions combine with fertilizer supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, tightening the global crop outlook, according to Bloomberg.

Chicago Board of Trade wheat contracts are on track to rise nearly 5% for the week — the largest gain since February — with hard red winter (HRW) wheat reaching its highest level since June 2024. The move reflects mounting concern over production risks in multiple major exporting regions.

In the U.S., drought is expected to persist across the Great Plains, a critical HRW wheat belt. Meanwhile, dry conditions are also intensifying across parts of the Black Sea region and Europe, further clouding supply prospects. In Australia, a major global exporter, both dryness and shortages of key farm inputs — particularly fertilizer — are reducing planting incentives and expected acreage.

The fertilizer squeeze is increasingly tied to the broader Iran conflict, which has disrupted global supply chains for key agricultural inputs. Analysts note that tightening availability of fertilizer is particularly impactful for Southern Hemisphere crops, including Australia’s wheat production cycle.

Quote of note: “Much of the gain has been driven by sustained dry conditions in western HRW wheat regions,” said Tobin Gorey of Cornucopia Agri Analytics, as reported by Bloomberg. He added that fertilizer concerns and the potential onset of El Niño are reinforcing bullish sentiment.

Despite the rally, analysts caution that ample global stockpiles could cap further upside in the near term. However, any additional production setbacks in key exporters like Australia or Argentina could provide a renewed catalyst for price gains.

Meanwhile, a Bloomberg survey indicates Australian wheat acreage for the 2026–27 season could fall to a seven-year low, underscoring how input shortages and weak price signals are beginning to reshape global supply expectations.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price  April 16	Change vs  April 15
Corn	July	$4.57 3/4	-2 3/4¢
Soybeans	July	$11.80 1/2	-2 3/4¢
Soybean Meal	July	$328.10	-$3.10
Soybean Oil	July	69.05¢	+174 pts
Wheat (SRW)	July	$6.06 1/2	+4 3/4¢
Wheat (HRW)	July	$6.55	+16 1/2¢
Wheat (Spring)	July	$6.67	+12 3/4¢
Cotton	July	78.13¢	+71 pts
Live Cattle	June	$247.625	-$3.45
Feeder Cattle	May	$367.10	-$3.85
Lean Hogs	June	$101.675	-$0.275

ROLLINS AT HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE HEARING

—USDA budget, farm economy, and food policy clash at House hearing

Lawmakers press USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on cuts, input costs, CCC funding, and rural support as she defends restructuring and “America First” agenda

At a contentious House Appropriations Agriculture Subcommittee hearing, lawmakers from both parties pressed USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on the Trump administration’s proposed fiscal 2027 USDA budget, rising farm input costs, and the broader direction of U.S. agricultural policy, highlighting deep divisions over funding cuts, trade policy, and food assistance programs.

Budget cuts and rural program concerns. Chairman Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) framed the administration’s proposal — a roughly 28% reduction in discretionary USDA spending — as a necessary reprioritization toward core programs and inflation control.

Meanwhile, Ranking Member Rep. Sanford D. Bishop Jr. (D-Ga.) warned farmers are facing worsening economic stress, citing rising bankruptcies, elevated input costs, and declining income. He questioned the timing of cuts, asking why the administration would reduce support “at a time when… producers are on the edge of the economic cliff.”

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) sharply criticized proposed reductions to nutrition programs, warning cuts to WIC and food aid could “cause a dramatic increase in child hunger and malnutrition,” while also raising concerns about delays in distributing previously authorized farm assistance.

Rollins defended the proposal as targeted and proportionally smaller than critics suggest, stating: “The current cuts… are right around nine billion total, so that’s about 4% of the total USDA budget.”

Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) and disaster funding pressures. A key addition during the hearing was Rollins’ call to strengthen the CCC, a critical funding vehicle for farm programs and disaster aid.

Responding to concerns from Rep. Scott Franklin (R-Fla.), Rollins said: “One thing you could help us with is the CCC fund has not been increased in about 30 years… we’re working with Sen. Hoeven (R-N.D.) and others.”

Rollins indicated that expanding CCC capacity would be essential to improving USDA’s ability to respond to disasters and market shocks.

Farm economy stress and input cost pressures. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) highlighted fertilizer market concentration and transparency issues.

Rollins responded: “It is an overarching economic pending disaster what has happened with these costs of inputs.” She added: “We’ve got to invest in more infrastructure… reshore fertilizer back to America.”

Trade, tariffs, and export markets. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) criticized tariffs and broader policy impacts on farmers, pointing to higher costs and reduced market access.

Rollins countered: “In just one year, we have enacted 18 new trade agreements… [and] cut that deficit by 42%.”

Farm security and foreign ownership of land. Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) raised concerns about foreign ownership of U.S. farmland.

Rollins warned: “I don’t know that there is a more perilous threat… than the international purchasing… of our farmland.”

Nutrition policy, SNAP, and MAHA agenda. Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) questioned whether SNAP and WIC cuts undermine access to healthy food.

Rollins responded: “We are the breadbasket of the world. We can’t immediately pull some of these crop protection tools.”

USDA staffing, FSA operations, and modernization. Rep. Sanford D. Bishop Jr. (D-Ga.) raised concerns about staffing cuts.

Rollins emphasized modernization: “We had 52,000 farmers sign up over a four-day period” under the new system, pointing to efficiency gains.

Animal health, avian flu, and vaccine debate. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) raised concerns about avian flu policy and vaccine use.

Rollins said: “There is nowhere yet in the world… that has proven that this vaccine can be effective.” She added that cases are down 61% and bird losses down 46% year-over-year.

Food labeling, specialty crops, and block grants.

Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.) praised tighter “Product of the USA” labeling rules, which Rollins said now require products to be fully U.S.-origin.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) sharply criticized USDA’s handling of the Farm Recovery and Support Block Grant, highlighting that 16 months after its creation, no funds have been distributed to eligible states. DeLauro, who led the effort to establish the program for small and mid-sized specialty crop farmers recovering from disasters, told Rollins that “not a single dime has been allocated.” Rollins acknowledged the delay but said progress is nearing completion, noting that Connecticut’s plan is “at the finish line” following extensive negotiations, including roughly 30 meetings between state and federal officials.

Meanwhile, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) raised concerns that several specialty crops grown in Washington state are excluded from the Trump administration’s $1 billion Assistance for Specialty Crop Farmers Program. He warned that gaps in eligibility could leave key producers without needed support amid ongoing economic pressures.

Rollins defended the department’s approach, saying limited funding required prioritization. “Ultimately, we had to make a decision where to draw the line. And I love hops and mint as much as anyone, but where the line was drawn was the real food, the berries, the broccoli.”

Childcare rules, rural infrastructure, and farm practices. Several additional issues surfaced during the hearing, reflecting broader tensions around USDA’s regulatory reach, rural investment priorities, and the future of farming practices.

Childcare food regulations: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) raised concerns about federal rules that restrict simple food handling in childcare settings. She cited examples where daycare workers are allowed to open packaged foods but not peel a banana due to classification as “food preparation,” calling for USDA to work with states to remove barriers to serving fresh, healthy foods. Rollins responded positively, saying, “I would love to help on that… we’ll be in touch on that right away,” signaling openness to regulatory flexibility.

Rural housing and broadband cuts: Democrats, including Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine), warned that proposed budget reductions would significantly impact rural infrastructure, including a reported 20% cut to rural housing programs and the elimination of key broadband expansion initiatives. Lawmakers argued these programs are essential to sustaining rural communities already facing high housing costs and limited connectivity, particularly as economic pressures mount.

Organic and regenerative agriculture funding delays: Pingree also highlighted delays in distributing previously authorized funding for organic farming cost-share programs, noting farmers are still waiting on 2025 and 2026 payments. She tied this to broader concerns about USDA’s commitment to regenerative agriculture. Rollins acknowledged strong demand for such programs, stating that thousands of farmers have applied and that adoption is underway, but emphasized the transition would be gradual, describing it as a “slow recalibration” given the need to maintain production levels and food security.

“Right to repair” for farm equipment: The issue of farmers’ ability to repair their own equipment was raised by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), who framed it as fundamental to producer independence and operational efficiency. While Rollins did not provide a detailed policy response in the limited time, she acknowledged the concern and indicated willingness to engage further, reflecting growing bipartisan attention to the issue across the agriculture sector.

Bottom Line: The hearing underscored a widening divide over U.S. agricultural policy. Together, these topics underscored that beyond headline debates over budget cuts and trade, lawmakers are increasingly focused on how USDA policies affect day-to-day operations — from childcare nutrition rules to farm-level production decisions and rural community viability.

Republicans emphasized efficiency, domestic production, and national security, while Democrats warned that cuts risk worsening economic stress in rural America. Rollins framed the administration’s strategy as a long-term reset, concluding: “Farm security is national security.”

USDA STAFFING: CONSERVATION

—Farmers warn USDA staffing cuts threaten conservation programs and farm viability

More than 500 producers urge Congress to restore agency workforce and funding as Farm Bill and budget debates intensify

More than 500 farmers and ranchers are pressing Congress to restore staffing and funding at USDA, warning that deep workforce losses and proposed budget cuts could undermine conservation programs and jeopardize farm operations nationwide. 

In a letter (link) to lawmakers, producers emphasized that agencies like the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and Farm Service Agency (FSA) are essential for delivering federal programs on the ground — from conservation planning to disaster assistance and financing. They argued that without adequate staffing, even well-funded programs cannot function effectively. Link to full list of signatories.

The concerns come after significant workforce reductions in 2025, when more than 20,000 USDA employees departed, including a 22% drop at NRCS. Farmers say the losses have already led to longer wait times, delayed payments, and reduced technical assistance — challenges that could determine whether some operations remain viable.

Meanwhile, the administration’s proposed fiscal 2027 budget would sharply cut Conservation Technical Assistance funding from $850 million in 2026 to about $111 million, potentially leaving most states with fewer than 10 NRCS staff. Producers warn this would create severe bottlenecks in program delivery just as demand rises.

The letter also flags broader policy risks, including a House Ag Committee proposal to remove $1 billion from the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), which would roll back recent gains in conservation funding.

Farmers argue the timing is particularly concerning given ongoing economic and environmental pressures — including high input costs, volatile commodity markets, and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. They stress that USDA programs are critical tools for managing risk and maintaining a stable food system.

Ultimately, the signers call on Congress to prioritize a “fully staffed, funded, and equipped” USDA,arguing that efficiency should mean better service — not fewer personnel — as lawmakers continue negotiations on the farm bill and annual appropriations.

CDC NOMINEE

—Trump nominates Erica Schwartz to lead CDC

Pick signals shift toward experienced public health leadership amid political tensions over vaccines and HHS direction

President Donald Trump on Thursday nominated Erica Schwartz to serve as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, selecting a veteran public health official and former deputy surgeon general to lead an agency that has lacked stable, full-time leadership during much of his second administration.

Schwartz brings a long résumé in federal health service, including roles in the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard, where she served as a preventive medicine chief. A retired rear admiral in the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps, she also played a role in the administration’s COVID-19 response. Her background as a physician with both military and federal health experience is expected to resonate with lawmakers evaluating her confirmation.

The nomination comes at a politically sensitive moment for the Department of Health and Human Services under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose stance on vaccines has created friction with senators from both parties. Unlike some other recent nominees, Schwartz does not have a public record opposing vaccinations, a factor that could ease her path through the Senate.

Trump also announced a broader leadership slate at CDC, including Sean Slovenski as deputy director and chief operating officer and Jennifer Shuford as chief medical officer, alongside Sara Brenner as a senior public health counselor.

Schwartz’s nomination follows a period of instability at the agency. The previous full-time director, Susan Monarez, was dismissed after clashing with Kennedy over vaccine policy, and subsequent leadership has been filled on an interim basis. Meanwhile, Jay Bhattacharya has informally overseen the agency but cannot officially serve as acting director due to federal vacancies rules.

Her confirmation will ultimately hinge on the Senate, particularly the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee chaired by Sen. Bill Cassidy, a physician who has strongly supported vaccination policy and could play a decisive role in shaping the outcome.

The pick reflects a broader White House effort to steer health policy messaging toward less divisive issues such as food safety and drug pricing ahead of the midterm elections, while navigating internal tensions within the administration’s health agenda.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Friday: Oil pullback on ceasefire hopes — but supply risks persist

Trump signals potential Iran deal and regional de-escalation, while prolonged disruption timelines keep energy markets tight

WTI crude futures eased toward $93 per barrel on Friday, giving back some of the prior session’s gains as optimism grew around a potential diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran conflict. President Donald Trump said Tehran had agreed in principle to terms that include abandoning nuclear ambitions, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and even providing “free oil,” though Iranian officials have not confirmed those claims.

Trump also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which was confirmed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, adding to broader hopes that regional tensions may be cooling. That shift in tone has reduced some immediate risk premium in oil prices following weeks of sharp volatility tied to Middle East supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global oil and LNG shipments — remains effectively closed due to a dual U.S.–Iran blockade, continuing to constrain flows and underpin market uncertainty. Despite the diplomatic signals, traders remain cautious about how quickly supply can normalize.

IMF Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that restoring a meaningful share of disrupted oil and gas output could take up to two years, highlighting the structural nature of the supply shock. That longer-term outlook suggests that even if geopolitical tensions ease, energy markets may remain tight well beyond any near-term ceasefire or agreement.

—Thursday: Oil rallies as supply risks persist amid Iran negotiation doubts

Market prices in prolonged disruption, inventory draws, and limited expectations for near-term diplomatic breakthrough

Oil prices pushed higher Thursday as traders discounted the likelihood that upcoming U.S./Iran negotiations will deliver a swift resolution to the supply disruptions roiling global energy markets. 

Brent crude surged $4.46, 4.7%, to settle at $99.39 per barrel. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $3.40, 3.7%, to $94.69, reflecting a market increasingly anchored in tight fundamentals.

The rally is being driven by ongoing constraints through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic remains well below normal levels. With the corridor accounting for a significant share of global oil and LNG flows, the continued disruption is tightening supply and accelerating inventory drawdowns across key consuming regions.

Meanwhile, market participants are showing limited confidence that diplomacy will quickly restore flows. Current negotiations appear focused on preventing further escalation rather than delivering a comprehensive agreement capable of reopening supply channels. As a result, oil markets have largely shrugged off more optimistic political rhetoric.

This tightening backdrop is increasingly visible in inventory data. U.S. crude stocks posted an unexpected draw, accompanied by declines in gasoline and distillate inventories. Strong export demand — as buyers pivot away from Middle Eastern barrels — is compounding the pressure on domestic supplies.

Globally, a sizable portion of oil shipments remains offline due to the effective closure of the Strait, straining physical markets, particularly in import-dependent regions. Meanwhile, ongoing restrictions — including the U.S. blockade of Iranian exports — are reinforcing downside risks to supply.

Upshot: Overall, the market remains underpinned by a sustained geopolitical risk premium. Until a broader agreement materializes and materially restores flows, price direction will continue to hinge on incremental developments in negotiations and the pace — or lack — of supply recovery.

TRADE POLICY

—USTR pushes for funding boost to enforce trade deals

Greer tells lawmakers additional resources are critical to police China commitments and new reciprocal agreements

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is seeking a $7 million budget increase for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) in fiscal year 2027, arguing that expanded staffing is necessary to enforce a growing slate of trade agreements and ensure trading partners follow through on commitments made to Washington.

Testifying before House appropriators, Greer said the agency’s requested $95 million budget would allow it to hire additional negotiators, economists, lawyers, and enforcement personnel to monitor obligations tied to recently negotiated “reciprocal” trade deals. Those agreements include commitments related to forced labor, environmental rules, intellectual property protections, non-tariff barriers, and treatment of U.S. technology firms.

Rebuilding an atrophied trade policy apparatus. Greer told Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.), chair of the appropriations subcommittee overseeing USTR’s budget, that the requested increase is needed not only to strike additional deals, but also to make sure the U.S. can enforce them. He argued that prior funding increases helped rebuild staffing after what he described as an atrophied trade policy apparatus, but said USTR still needs more personnel to manage the administration’s expanding trade agenda.

According to USTR’s budget justification, roughly $6 million of the proposed increase would be directed toward staffing trade experts and enforcement personnel. Greer said that without adequate monitoring and follow-through, the U.S. would risk failing to capture the full benefits of its recent agreements.

During an exchange with Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.), Greer said USTR is closely watching South Korea’s treatment of U.S.-based tech companies following complaints that Seoul’s e-commerce rules could favor domestic firms. He said the administration is prepared to use Section 301 authorities if needed and stressed that USTR has been pressing Korean officials directly on the issue.

China was another major focus of the hearing. Responding to Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.), Greer said USTR intends to track Beijing’s compliance with its pledge to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028. That issue has become increasingly important as some farmers report that China’s market remains effectively closed to U.S. soybeans despite the commitment on paper.

Mrvan said growers in his district have warned that China may not be living up to its soybean pledge, particularly as a new planting season begins. Greer replied that soybean purchases would be a priority topic at next month’s summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, signaling that agricultural enforcement will remain central to the administration’s broader trade posture toward China.

Why China needs sustained focus. More broadly, Greer argued that China’s economic model — including heavy subsidies, state intervention, and frequent regulatory changes — requires sustained U.S. scrutiny and stronger enforcement capacity. That, he suggested, is a major reason USTR is asking Congress for additional resources as the Trump administration expands its trade negotiations and looks to hold existing partners to account.

—USDA allocates $285 million in America First Trade Promotion funds to 55 Groups

Top commodity organizations secure largest awards as USDA expands export market development push

USDA unveiled the 55 organizations selected to receive funding under its new America First Trade Promotion Program (AFTPP), distributing a total of $285 million aimed at strengthening U.S. agricultural exports and expanding global market access.

The initiative stems from congressional funding provided in fiscal year 2027 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, reflecting a broader push by the Trump administration to bolster trade promotion efforts amid intensifying global competition and shifting trade dynamics.

Leading commodity groups are set to receive the largest allocations, with awards ranging from roughly $12.5 million to $14 million. Major recipients include the American Soybean Association, Cotton Council International, U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council, and the U.S. Meat Export Federation — all of which play central roles in promoting U.S. commodities abroad.

The funding is designed to complement USDA’s existing Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) programs, such as the Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development Program, by providing additional resources to expand outreach, marketing, and technical assistance in key export markets.

Quote of note: “USMEF looks forward to continued collaboration with FAS to ensure successful implementation of the AFTPP, which is an excellent addition to USDA’s lineup of foreign market development programs,” said Dan Halstrom, president of the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

The rollout underscores USDA’s strategy of leveraging public-private partnerships to drive export growth, particularly as U.S. producers face headwinds from geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and rising competition from global suppliers.

CHINA

—China expands zero-tariff access to Africa ahead of May 1 rollout

Beijing moves to deepen trade ties, secure supply chains, and counter global protectionism 

Beijing is set to eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations beginning May 1, marking one of its most expansive trade liberalization moves toward the continent, according to reporting from Caixin Global.

The policy will grant zero-tariff access across all product categories for African countries that maintain diplomatic relations with China, significantly widening the scope of an earlier initiative launched in December 2024. That prior framework applied only to least-developed countries — many of them in Africa — but the new measure extends preferential treatment to nearly the entire continent.

The timing is deliberate. The rollout coincides with the 70th anniversary of China/Africa diplomatic relations in 2026, reinforcing Beijing’s broader geopolitical and economic push to strengthen its position across emerging markets.

From a trade and supply chain perspective, the move serves multiple strategic objectives. China is seeking to lock in access to critical raw materials and agricultural commodities — including minerals, energy inputs, and food products — at a time when global supply chains remain strained by geopolitical disruptions, including the ongoing Iran conflict and broader fragmentation in global trade.

Meanwhile, the tariff removal also reflects a broader shift in China’s trade posture. As advanced economies increasingly lean toward industrial policy, tariffs, and supply chain reshoring, Beijing is positioning itself as a counterweight by expanding market access and deepening South–South trade linkages.

For African exporters, the policy could significantly improve competitiveness in the Chinese market, particularly for resource-intensive sectors such as mining, metals, and agriculture, where tariffs have historically been a barrier. However, the ultimate impact will depend on logistics, infrastructure capacity, and the ability of African producers to scale exports to meet Chinese demand.

At a macro level, the initiative underscores a growing divergence in global trade architecture — with China pursuing outward-facing liberalization toward developing economies, even as trade tensions persist with the U.S. and Europe.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

—PepsiCo earnings beat driven by pricing reset and portfolio shift

Lower snack prices and product innovation revive demand as volumes rebound in North America

PepsiCo shares rose after the company delivered stronger-than-expected first-quarter results, signaling early success from its strategy to lower prices and reposition its product lineup.

The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share on $19.4 billion in revenue, both topping Wall Street expectations. Revenue rose 8.5% year over year, supported by acquisitions and favorable currency effects, while organic growth came in at 2.6%. The earnings beat pushed the stock up roughly 2% in Thursday trading, outperforming the broader S&P 500.

A key driver of the improvement was a shift in pricing strategy. After several quarters of relying on higher prices — which weighed on demand, particularly among lower-income consumers — PepsiCo moved to make core snack brands like Doritos and Lay’s more affordable. That adjustment helped lift North American food volumes by 2% in the first quarter, a notable turnaround from prior declines.

Meanwhile, the company is reshaping its portfolio to align with evolving consumer preferences. This includes smaller package sizes, cleaner ingredient profiles, and new product launches targeting health-conscious buyers. These efforts are aimed at offsetting longer-term pressure on legacy snack brands tied to concerns over sugar, sodium, and fat content.

PepsiCo’s beverage segment remains in transition, with volumes down 2.5% year over year, partly due to a strategic pullback from lower-margin packaged water sales. However, excluding that shift, management expects a return to positive volume growth. The company is also leaning into higher-growth categories such as functional hydration, where brands like Gatorade and Propel are gaining market share.

Growth in beverages is further supported by acquisitions, including Poppi, and investments in Celsius Holdings, reflecting a broader push into health-oriented and performance drink categories.

Looking ahead, PepsiCo expects organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% in fiscal 2026, with core earnings projected to rise 4% to 6%. Management noted limited disruption so far from the Iran conflict, citing effective hedging strategies, while also flagging uncertainty around new state-level restrictions on SNAP purchases for certain snack and beverage categories.

Overall, the quarter suggests PepsiCo’s pivot toward affordability and product innovation is beginning to stabilize demand — particularly in its core U.S. snack business — while positioning the company for more balanced growth across categories.

HEALTHCARE

—Kennedy faces bipartisan backlash over vaccine policy and public health messaging

Lawmakers from both parties question HHS leadership amid measles outbreak and mounting concerns over credibility

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came under sustained bipartisan scrutiny during two separate congressional hearings this week, as lawmakers pressed him on his vaccine agenda and broader handling of public health policy.

Democrats and Republicans alike raised concerns that HHS messaging under Kennedy may be undermining confidence in vaccines at a particularly sensitive moment — as the U.S. confronts a renewed measles outbreak. Several lawmakers argued that mixed signals from the department risk exacerbating public hesitancy and weakening longstanding immunization efforts.

Kennedy also faced pointed criticism over past remarks related to vaccine safety and race, including comments about Black children that lawmakers described as scientifically unfounded and harmful. Members of Congress questioned whether those views were influencing current policy decisions at the department.

Meanwhile, scrutiny extended beyond vaccines to Kennedy’s proposed changes to preventive health programs. Lawmakers warned that shifts in funding priorities and program structure could disrupt access to routine care, particularly in vulnerable communities that rely heavily on federal public health infrastructure.

The hearings reflect growing unease on Capitol Hill with Kennedy’s unconventional approach to public health — an approach that, while appealing to some outside the mainstream medical establishment, is increasingly drawing resistance from both parties as real-world health risks intensify.

Bottom Line: Taken together, the exchanges signal that Kennedy’s standing with Congress may be eroding, raising questions about his ability to advance key health initiatives as bipartisan patience appears to be wearing thin.

CONGRESS

—Vought sidesteps Iran war cost estimates under Senate pressure

Budget chief declines to confirm spending figures as lawmakers warn of escalating fiscal impact

White House budget director Russell Vought faced bipartisan scrutiny on Capitol Hill Thursday after refusing to provide concrete estimates for the cost of U.S. military operations against Iran, underscoring growing concern in Congress over the fiscal toll of the conflict.

Testifying before senators, Vought said the administration is preparing a supplemental defense funding request but repeatedly declined to quantify how much the war has cost so far. He argued that daily operational expenses are highly variable, stating that costs “fluctuate” and are difficult to average in real time.

That explanation drew sharp criticism from Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) who pressed Vought on reports suggesting the U.S. may have already spent as much as $50 billion. Vought refused to confirm that figure, prompting Merkley to respond that he expected more precise accounting from the administration’s top budget official.

Vought also sidestepped reports that the White House is considering a supplemental funding request in the range of $80 billion to $100 billion, offering no clarity on the scope or timing of any proposal.

Meanwhile, senators indicated that internal estimates place the cost of the conflict at roughly $10 billion per week — though that figure has not been formally confirmed by either the White House or the Pentagon. The lack of transparency has fueled frustration among lawmakers already grappling with a national debt exceeding $38 trillion.

Merkley later accused the administration of deliberately obscuring the true cost of the war, arguing that the absence of clear figures reflects concern about public reaction. He suggested that daily expenditures may be running between $1 billion and $2 billion, a pace that could quickly escalate the overall fiscal burden if sustained.

The exchange highlights a broader tension between the administration and Congress over oversight of wartime spending, particularly as the Iran conflict intensifies and pressure mounts for a clearer accounting of its long-term economic impact.

—Forest Service reorganization draws bipartisan scrutiny on Capitol Hill

Lawmakers question headquarters relocation, budget cuts, and potential workforce impacts

The U.S. Forest Service’s sweeping reorganization plan — including relocating its headquarters from Washington, D.C., to Salt Lake City — faced sharp bipartisan scrutiny during a House Appropriations hearing. Agency Chief Tom Schultz defended the move as a way to push resources and decision-making closer to frontline personnel, telling lawmakers the goal is to “cut through regulations” and empower field staff.

The restructuring would require roughly 500 employees to relocate and includes a broader overhaul placing the agency under 15 state-based leaders while closing dozens of research stations. Schultz emphasized that the plan is not intended to further reduce staffing levels, despite recent workforce declines tied to the Trump administration’s broader federal downsizing efforts.

However, lawmakers and labor representatives raised concerns about the scale and potential consequences. Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine), ranking member of the subcommittee, warned that the lack of transparency around the reorganization could lead to deeper workforce losses than anticipated.

The National Federation of Federal Employees estimated that as many as 6,500 workers could be affected by the headquarters move, with an additional 2,700 impacted by research facility closures.

Budget concerns also loomed large. Pingree pointed to the administration’s proposed $2.1 billion discretionary budget for the Forest Service — a steep decline from the $8.6 billion enacted for fiscal 2026 — raising questions about how the agency would maintain operations under such constraints.

Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), chairman of the subcommittee, pressed for clarity on another key proposal: shifting wildland fire management funding from the Forest Service to the Department of the Interior. While not dismissing the idea outright, Simpson underscored the need for more detailed justification, noting that lawmakers still lack sufficient information to evaluate its potential impact.

Upshot: The hearing highlighted growing unease in Congress over whether the reorganization — framed by the administration as a decentralization effort — could instead disrupt core programs, reduce staffing, and weaken the agency’s operational capacity at a time of increasing wildfire and land management challenges.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Late season snow for the Northern Rockies, Central Rockies, and Northern Plains… …There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valleys and Central/Southern Plains on Friday… …There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Friday.